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Global stocks Shares

Rocket’s Earnings Fall in Q1 as Higher Rates Bite Into Refinance Volumes; Fair Value Estimate to $14

price of btc is going to breakout

Business Strategy and Outlook

While Rocket Companies offers a variety of products and services, the firm is best known for its Rocket Mortgage segment, which provides Rocket with most of its revenue. The mortgage industry is fractured and highly competitive, but Rocket has distinguished itself by operating as an entirely digitally lender, originating and servicing its mortgages through its mobile app and website. Rocket has made substantial investments in automating the mortgage process and has been an industry leader in increasing loan processing speed and removing pain points for consumers. These investments along with its control over the appraisal and titling process, through its ownership of Amrock, have allowed the firm to offer an industry-leading mortgage experience to borrowers while also enjoying a cost structure advantage over its competitors. 

As a digital lender Rocket is able to scale its capacity for mortgage volume up or down quickly since each loan requires less manual attention. This flexibility will be needed as rising mortgage rates push mortgage origination volume well below their 2020 and 2021 highs. Rocket is particularly exposed to this trend as it is strongest in refinance activity and price sensitive first-time homebuyers. As origination activity is curtailed by higher interest rates, Rocket’s revenue and earnings is anticipated to fall from 2021, particularly as pricing in the mortgage secondary market has cooled down. That said, through the full cycle Rocket is expected to gain market share from other lenders. Consumers have become more comfortable with conducting their finances digitally during the pandemic, and digital lenders, like Rocket, have benefited from this tailwind. Rocket has had strong success in expanding its partner network. New partnerships with firms like Mint and Morgan Stanley, in which these firms offer Rocket’s mortgages to their customers, will help drive growth. While Rocket’s revenue and earnings will likely remain volatile, a symptom of the cyclical nature of the mortgage industry, the company’s strong competitive position and trends in consumer behavior will provide it with long-term secular growth.

Financial Strength

Rocket operates in a highly cyclical industry, as a result its revenue and earnings have the potential to drop sharply due to economic factors completely out of its control. While Rocket does resell the mortgages it makes within days of origination, the sheer volume of mortgages that Rocket creates means that the company has billions in mortgage debt on its balance sheet at any given point in time. At the end of December, Rocket had more than $19 billion in mortgages, which were financed by equity and less than $13 billion in funding facilities. The combination of volatile revenue and substantial funding needs means that Rocket’s financial strength is an important factor to watch, particularly during slower markets. Despite this, there are no significant concerns about Rocket’s financial health at this time. The company has a strong balance sheet and has been able to maintain constant profitability, even during slow periods for mortgage origination. Rocket had over $2.1 billion in cash at the end of December 2021 and only $6 billion in debt not directly tied to its mortgage holdings. With net debt of roughly 1.5 times the projected 2023 EBITDA, Rocket should have more than enough financial resources to see it through a slow mortgage market, should one develop.

Bulls Say’s

  • Rocket has been steadily gaining market share in both its direct-to-consumer and partner network mortgage origination channels. 
  • Rocket’s digital origination model gives it a cost advantage over its peers and allows it to respond rapidly to market developments. 
  • Rocket has been able to sign major partnerships to expand its partner network. Deals with Morgan Stanley and Intuit’s Mint represent major wins for the company

Company Profile 

Rocket Companies is a financial services company that was originally founded as Rock Financial in 1985 and is currently based in Detroit. Rocket Companies offers a wide array of services and products but is best known for its Rocket Mortgage business. The company’s mortgage lending operations are split between its direct-to-consumer lending, which sees borrowers accessing the company’s lending arm directly through either its mobile app or website, and its partner network where mortgage brokers and other firms use Rocket’s origination process to offer loans to their customers. The company has rapidly gained market share in recent years and is now the largest mortgage originator in the U.S. as well as the servicer for more than 2 million loans.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Materials Cost Headwinds Now A Major Cost Problem For Toyota But Balance Sheet Remains Strong

Business Strategy and Outlook

Toyota’s vision includes making compact cars a priority for emerging markets with attractive design but lower costs, having designers and engineers as equal partners, and scale from the Toyota New Global Architecture, which develops many vehicles using common parts, something critical for Toyota to keep pace with the likes of Volkswagen. A big change on the parts side is that the company uses more parts on a global standard as opposed to Toyota-specific standards. The long-term goal is for vehicles that share a platform to have 70%-80% common parts. Giving local designers more control is finally letting Toyota make more exciting vehicles. Toyota is thinking about the future with its Monet autonomous vehicle services joint venture with SoftBank and other Japanese automakers, such as Honda, its battery joint venture with Panasonic, and Woven City, a laboratory city of the future in Japan run on hydrogen fuel cells. Toyota is also working on solid state batteries and has an JPY 8 trillion electrified vehicle plan for 2022-30.

 More plants outside Japan will also help Toyota deal with foreign exchange risk, which can dramatically affect earnings. In calendar 2021, about 80% of Toyota’s light vehicle sales were outside Japan, but only 61% of production was based outside Japan. The company has long pledged to produce at least 3 million vehicles a year in Japan, but this promise becomes very hard to keep when the yen is strong. Every JPY 1 change in the U.S. dollar affects Toyota’s operating income by an estimated JPY 40 billion, more than twice the impact at Honda. Management has said that the Japanese operations break even at JPY 85/$1, and below JPY 80/$1 is where management has to reconsider its Japanese production levels, especially for compact cars. Still, in May 2020, President Akio Toyoda said 3 million units and Japan employment will be maintained no matter how bad the economic situation is because people make things society needs.

Financial Strength

Toyota is in excellent financial shape, and its balance sheet is one of the strongest in the auto sector. The company has a small debt load and substantial cash holdings. Flexibility is important because it gives the company plenty of room to acquire more capital in the debt markets, if needed. As of the end of fiscal 2022, Toyota’s consolidated cash and cash equivalent balance was JPY about 6.1 trillion. Excluding the captive finance company, the firm held about JPY 4.3 trillion in cash at the end of fiscal 2022, more than offsetting JPY 2.6 trillion of debt. This huge net cash position gives Toyota the capability to invest in many experimental efforts around hydrogen, EVs, and autonomous vehicles without drastically hurting financial health. As of year-end fiscal 2021, the consolidated company had access to about JPY 8.3 trillion of unused long-term and short-term credit lines. Debt/EBITDA excluding the financing arm has fallen to 1.3 after peaking at 2.8 times in fiscal 2009. For fiscal 2022, excluding the financing arm Toyota generated free cash flow equal to about 6.7% of revenue. Toyota does not seem to have any problems meeting debt maturities or raising more capital in a recession should it need the funds. In April 2020, it raised JPY 1.25 trillion in short-term debt to combat COVID-19 damage. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Its popular vehicles usually allow Toyota to use fewer incentives than the Detroit Three, boosting the firm’s profits and improving the resale value of vehicles. 
  • Toyota’s manufacturing process is the gold standard of the auto industry. 
  • Significantly lower pension and retiree healthcare costs give Toyota a cost advantage over the Detroit Three, although this advantage is less than it used to be.

Company Profile 

Founded in 1937, Toyota is one of the world’s largest automakers with 10.38 million units sold at retail in fiscal 2022 across its light vehicle brands. Brands include Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, and truck maker Hino; market share in Japan is about 52%, while U.S. share is over 15%. The firm also owns large stake in Denso, a parts supplier, at least 16% of Subaru (with a deal to raise that to 20%), and holds investments in many other firms, including shares of Uber Technologies and about 5% in each of Mazda and Suzuki. Fiscal 2022 sales excluding financial services were JPY 29.1 trillion. Toyota also has a financing arm and manufactures homes and boats..

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Avita’s First-Quarter Sales Growth Compensates for Margin Contraction

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Avita’s RECELL to pose a significant challenge to the standard of care for larger burns, currently a skin graft sourced from elsewhere on the patient’s body. The Avita will be successful based on the product’s clinical performance, ease of use and relative price point. RECELL creates Spray-on Skin within 30 minutes from a skin sample, typically less than 5% of the size required in a graft. It has been clinically demonstrated to heal the burn site as effectively as a skin graft without creating a large donor site wound.

Despite the technology in Avita’s RECELL system being in use since the Bali bombings in 2002, the product has had limited commercial success as it entered the market as an investigational device. This limited the reimbursement and take-up of the product. RECELL relaunched in the U.S. following randomized clinical trials and FDA approval in late 2018. Currently, it’s approved for treating second and third degree burns in pediatric and adult patients.

The treatment of severe burns in the U.S. is concentrated across the 136 burn centers, making commercial roll-out of RECELL straightforward. Of the approximately 14,000 adults with second- or third-degree burns treated at these burn centers each year and Avita could ramp-up to 34% share or 4,800 patients per year by fiscal 2026. The cost of RECELL compares favorably with a skin graft in this setting, as RECELL has a list price of USD 7,500 per single-use unit versus the USD 17,000 to USD 20,000 cost of a skin graft. It also has the benefits of shorter length of stay and fewer

additional procedures.

Outside of burn centers, the opportunity set is far more fragmented and because the burns are less severe, the cost of skin grafts average USD 2,000. As such a limited take-up outside of burn centres, reaching 3% by fiscal 2031. Avita has received regulatory approval for an updated RECELL device that makes handling easier in a regular hospital environment. The company will seek to justify reimbursement on a holistic cost of treatment and roll out the updated version in second-half fiscal 2022.outpatients.

Financial Strengths

Having raised AUD 120 million in equity funding in November 2019, and a further USD 69 million in February 2021, Avita is in a solid financial position with no debt, and USD 95 million in cash and marketable securities as at March 31, 2021. Based on roll-out and product launch dates, no one can expect Avita will need to raise further capital before becoming self-maintaining. The operations of the company to be a net consumer of cash in fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024 as it scales up operations, and become free cash flow positive thereafter. Key operational cash requirements include the salesforce and clinical trials and approvals for new indications. There

is little capital investment required as the owned factory where it assembles the RECELL systems in the U.S., is currently running at only 10% capacity. Consequently, one cannot expect it will require additional physical space for the next five years. Avita does not pay a dividend and one cannot forecast this to change. The company will become free cash flow positive in the forthcoming years, it will choose to reinvest this either in expanding geographies or new indications outside the scope of the current trials, such as cosmetic dermatology.

Bulls Say

  • The Avita’s RECELL system as a sound alternative treatment for large second- and third-degree burns treated in burn centers. It compares favorably on price and ease of use with new products and the existing standard of care being skin grafts.
  • The company requires little invested capital and is expected to generate very high returns once it ramps up its commercial roll-out.
  • RECELL has achieved an estimated 20% market share in fiscal 2021 in its key addressable market since launching in 2019 and set to expand its use for other indications.

Company Description

Avita is a single product company. Its RECELL system is an innovative burn treatment device which creates Spray-on Skin from a small skin sample within 30 minutes, thus avoiding or reducing the need for skin grafts. It’s approved for the treatment of adult patients in the U.S. with pediatric clinical trials and expanded indications in soft-tissue reconstruction and vitiligo underway. It is currently in roll-out across the approximately 136 U.S. burn centers. Despite having product approval in Australia, Europe, Canada, and China, Avita is not actively marketing in those territories and focusing instead on the U.S. region. However, it is expected to launch in Japan via distribution partner Cosmotec in second-half fiscal 2022. Avita is domiciled, and has its primary listing, in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Change of Analyst for Boral; Our FVE Decreased 9% but Shares Remain a Bargain

Business Strategy & Outlook

The broadly supportive of Boral’s strategy. Boral’s strategic priorities revolve around four key pillars. The first pillar is largely complete and involves refocusing Boral’s operations on its Australian construction materials business through divestments of noncore assets. Divestments include USG Boral, the North American building products and fly ash businesses, and Meridian Brick. Boral’s second strategic priority is its transformation program, which is aiming to add up to 250 million in annual EBIT to the Australian business net inflation. The third pillar involves decarbonizing Boral’s operations. The final pillar focuses on exploring and commercializing innovations over the long term. The Boral has divested noncore business units and is looking to remove inefficiencies from its Australian operations. Profitably decarbonizing Boral’s operations is likely to be a drawn-out effort but is appropriate give the increasing focus on environmental, social, and governance factors in investment appraisal.

The medium-term outlook for Boral is reasonably strong. Boral derives around two thirds of group revenue from infrastructure and nonresidential construction projects such as roads, highways, subdivisions, bridges, and commercial buildings. The remaining one third of revenue is largely from residential construction activity across detached housing, apartments, and renovations. Buoyed by relatively strong macroeconomic conditions and favorable monetary and fiscal policy, the pipeline of construction and building projects is healthy and should underpin solid demand for Boral’s construction materials.

 However, Boral’s outlook is not free of challenges. The combination of a strong construction pipeline and limited migration of skilled workers during the coronavirus pandemic is expected to result in raw material and labour shortages. These headwinds have the potential to exacerbate cost pressures while increasing lead times for existing projects and/or halting projects altogether.

Financial Strengths

Boral’s balance sheet is in a strong position. Divestments of noncore operations including USG Boral, the North American building products and fly ash businesses, Meridian Brick, and Australian Timber, generated more than USD 4 billion in proceeds. Following AUD 3.1 billion in capital returns to shareholders throughout fiscal 2022, a modest net debt position of approximately AUD 200 million at year-end (including lease liabilities).

The Boral’s targeted level of leverage is manageable. In the longer term, Boral is seeking to maintain a net debt range of 2 times to 2.5 times EBITDA. An average dividend payout ratio of 70% over our forecast horizon, at the upper end of management’s 50%-70% target. The Boral will appropriately determine ordinary dividend payments subject to its financial position and broader construction market conditions.

Bulls Say

  • A strong pipeline of construction projects will stimulate demand for Boral’s construction materials over the medium term.
  • Boral’s transformation program will expand the profitability of the Australian operations and increase return on invested capital.
  • Boral’s divestments of noncore businesses leave management free to focus on generating value from the core Australian operations.

Company Description

Boral is an Australian vertically integrated building materials company with operations across quarries, cement, concrete, and asphalt. Having recently divested its noncore operations including its North American building products and fly ash businesses, USG Boral, and Meridian Brick, Boral’s operations are now focused on the Australian construction market.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Pepsi faces risks that consumers spurn its fare in favour of healthier options

Business Strategy and Outlook

Pepsi’s strategy is seen, emphasizing growth in its core snacks (number one position) and beverages (number two position) businesses through expanding its addressable market and investing to align its mix with evolving consumer preferences (such as snacking as a meal substitute), favourably. Within snacks (55% of sales), Pepsi dominates the global competitive landscape (7 times its closest competitor, with five of the six top brands), and it is alleged its core brand development advantages–direct-to-store partnerships with retailers, innovation to align with consumer preferences, and data analysis–allow it to drive growth in its underlying categories. In experts view, Pepsi’s market position enables it to raise price without a lasting hit to volumes (and should continue to do so), given its troves of global consumer data. But the firm doesn’t just let its fare fend for itself. Rather, it spends to support its brands in a crowded space. In addition, investments to bolster its manufacturing capacity should further entrench its standing with leading retail partners in both physical and digital outlets, in experts opinion. 

In its beverage business (45% of sales), Pepsi is a strong number two player in an oligopolistic industry, and it is anticipated the firm can generate growth within the carbonated soft drink, or CSD, category and still beverages, such as sports (where it maintains dominant share), energy drinks (enhanced by its acquisition of Rockstar Energy), and bottled/carbonated water. It is likely, current innovation efforts, particularly to expand in low sugar CSDs and sports drinks, aligns with consumer preferences and leverages its strong brands. Pepsi faces risks that consumers spurn its fare in favour of healthier options and that online distribution grows, but it is surmised as, the firm is well positioned to manage these challenges. It is held for investments to reformulate products (without altering the taste profile) combined with the addition of healthier brands should appeal to consumers looking for wholesome products. In analysts view, Pepsi’s resources should ensure its fare wins regardless of the channel in which consumers opt to shop.

Financial Strength

It is held that Pepsi maintains solid financial health, which should enable it to support growth while also returning excess cash to shareholders. At the end of fiscal year 2021, the firm’s net debt/EBITDA stood at approximately 2.5 times, with approximately $40 billion of debt outstanding against nearly $6 billion in cash and investments. Debt maturities over the next three years approximate one-quarter of its outstanding debt balance, which is seen, Pepsi can cover with its cash on hand, the $3.5 billion in proceeds received in fiscal 2022 from the sale of Tropicana, and the $7.5 billion available through its revolving credit facilities. It is projected net debt/EBITDA will decline to 0.8 times by fiscal 2031. Pepsi’s balance sheet strength is buttressed by its strong cash flow generation, as analysts forecast free cash flow as a percentage of sales will average around 12% over the next 10 years (generally in line with historic levels). It is likely Pepsi will direct additional resources toward capital expenditures each of the next two years (equating to 5.5% of sales on average) in order to add manufacturing capacity for in-demand products, automate and digitize the supply chain, and invest in e-commerce before returning to its historic 5% average through the remainder of experts 10-year explicit forecast. However, it is not considered that elevated capital expenditures will come at the expense of its commitment to return excess cash to shareholders. Analysts forecast the firm will raise its dividend at a high-single-digit annual clip (maintaining a payout ratio of around 70%). It is also alleged that Pepsi will repurchase nearly 1% of shares outstanding on an annual basis, which is viewed to be a prudent use of cash when the stock trades below experts assessment of its intrinsic value. While it is likely the firm will also remain a consolidator in the space, experts don’t model future tie ups due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential size, timing, and valuation.

Bulls Say’s

  • Given its dominant share in Latin American snacks, more than 23% per Euromonitor, it is likely for Pepsi to benefit from favourable demographic and disposable income tailwinds in the region. 
  • Despite holding the top spot in global sports drinks, it is held Pepsi is poised for further category gains as it launches innovation aligned with evolving consumer trends, including for Gatorade Zero and Gatorade Light. 
  • It is alleged Pepsi’s robust cash flow generation affords the opportunity to invest in its brands, distribution, and capacity.

Company Profile 

PepsiCo is a leading provider of snacks and beverages globally with prominent brands including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, and Aquafina in the beverage space and Lays, Cheetos, and Doritos within snacks. The company maintains dominant share of the global snacks industry with six of the top 10 savoury snack brands and the number two position in the carbonated soft drink, or CSD, category globally along with key brands in bottled water and sports and energy drinks. Overall, the company earns 60% of its revenue and two thirds of its operating profit in North America, although it serves Europe, Latin America, Africa/Middle East/South Asia, and Asia Pacific through separate business units. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Too many fingers in too many pies, reduces Aegon’s focus

Business Strategy and Outlook

Aegon has had its share of problems over the last 13 years, averaging close to 4.4% return on equity over this period. That is well below the 11% cost of capital experts’ assign to the business. These struggles have stretched across capital, solvency, governance, management, and recurring nonrecurring items. Additionally, communication with the investment community was not good. However, it is seen, recent results show a change of direction in terms of strategy. 

Under the new leadership Aegon is focusing on four things to make it a materially better company. First, strengthening the balance sheet; management has already started this. Second, creating a more disciplined management culture with the move to quarterly from semi-annual reporting. This is another change which is welcomed. The charges investors saw in the first half of 2020 already show greater accountability. Third, improving efficiency, and fourth, increasing strategic focus, which is likely to be closely aligned. Management has spoken at length about Aegon’s geographical breadth and this is something which is emphasized to investors that is seen to be managerial distraction. Too many fingers in too many pies reduces Aegon’s focus. The United States and Netherlands have long been key to this business. Discussions on Portugal and Spain and the distribution partnership with Banco Santander lead us to believe these markets will remain core, though it remains preference to see an exit.

Financial Strength

Aegon management is on a debt drive and analysts really like this. Traditionally, Aegon has not been a highly leveraged business, steering into the financial crisis with a debt/asset ratio of well under 2%. During this period, Aegon delivered quite reliable earnings. As the global financial crisis ensued and Aegon took on EUR 3.0 billion of debt from the Dutch government, the company’s woes were exacerbated during the succeeding sovereign debt crisis; management drove a further deterioration of the balance sheet with an aggressive pursuit of joint ventures in Spain. Debt consequently increased to 3.5% of assets and was only marginally tempered until another round of poor transactions when management decided to acquire Mercer’s defined-contribution record-keeping business and a partial acquisition of La Banque Postale asset management. Balance sheet quality was further degraded with the purchase of BlackRock’s defined contribution platform and Cofunds a year later. Debt/assets reached a high of 3.6% of assets and interest payments on this debt reached 35% of earnings before interest. This served as a catalyst for mounting pressure from Dodge & Cox, Aegon’s long-term shareholder. Actions have eminently improved the shape of Aegon’s balance sheet and as at year-end 2021 Aegon reported a 2.6% debt/asset ratio.

Bulls Say’s

  • Aegon has shed peripheral businesses in Central and Eastern Europe. 
  • Debt repayment has been impressive. 
  • The new management team appears to be laying-out a strategy for the business.

Company Profile 

Aegon is a Netherlands-headquartered insurance company with core operations that stretch across the U.S., Netherlands, and United Kingdom. The business also holds peripheral ventures in Spain, Portugal, Brazil, and China. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Roche’s Tiragolumab Fails in Higher-Stakes Trial; Lowering Our FVE, but Shares Remain Undervalued

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Roche’s drug portfolio and industry-leading diagnostics conspire to create maintainable competitive advantages. As the market leader in both biotech and diagnostics, this Swiss healthcare giant is in a unique position to guide global health care into a safer, more personalized, and more cost-effective endeavor. Strong information sharing continues between Genentech and Roche researchers, boosting research and development productivity and personalized medicine offerings that take advantage of Roche’s diagnostic arm.

Roche’s biologics focus and innovative pipeline are key to the firm’s ability to maintain its wide moat and continue to achieve growth as current blockbusters face competition. Blockbuster cancer biologics Avastin, Rituxan, and Herceptin are seeing strong headwinds from biosimilars. However, Roche’s biologics focus (more than 80% of pharmaceutical sales) provides some buffer against the traditional intense declines from small-molecule generic competition. In addition, with the launch of Perjeta in 2012 and Kadcyla in 2013, Roche has expanded its breast cancer franchise, and Phesgo, a subcutaneous coformulation of Herceptin and Perjeta, is launching in the U.S. Gazyva, approved in CLL and NHL and in testing in lupus, will also extend the longevity of the Rituxan franchise. Avastin’s lung cancer sales are vulnerable to biosimilars and competition from new therapies Opdivo and Keytruda, but Roche’s own immuno-oncology drug Tecentriq launched in 2016, and the peak sales potential above $10 billion. Roche is also expanding outside of oncology with MS drug Ocrevus ($9 billion peak sales) and hemophilia drug Hemlibra ($6 billion peak sales).

Roche’s diagnostics business is also strong. With a 20% share of the global in vitro diagnostics market, Roche holds the number-one rank in this industry over competitors Siemens, Abbott, and Ortho.

Pricing pressure has been intense in the diabetes-care market, but new instruments and immunoassays have buoyed the core professional diagnostics segment.

Financial Strengths

Roche’s financial health remains robust. At the end of 2021, Roche’s net debt stood at CHF 18.2 billion, or 20% of total assets. Debt levels increased in late 2021 as Roche repurchased shares held by Novartis, but with debt maturities spread over the next several years, the firm will meet obligations easily. The estimated free cash flows north of CHF 15 billion annually over the next five years. The Roche to maintain a dividend payout ratio around 50% going forward, implying mid-single-digit annual

increases in dividends per share.

Bulls Say

  • Roche and its innovative U.S. arm Genentech have a solid history of generating blockbuster therapies in oncology, and Roche’s pipeline is full of novel candidates, with a particularly large late-stage pipeline. 
  • Hemophilia drug Hemlibra and MS drug Ocrevus have multi-billion-dollar sales and significant growth potential, further diversifying Roche’s revenue.
  • Collaboration between its diagnostics and drug development groups gives Roche a unique in-house angle on personalized medicine.

Company Description

Roche is a Swiss biopharmaceutical and diagnostic company. The firm’s best-selling pharmaceutical products include a variety of oncology therapies from acquired partner Genentech, and its diagnostics group was bolstered by the acquisition of Ventana in 2008. Oncology products account for 50% of pharmaceutical sales, and centralized and point-of-care diagnostics for more than half of diagnostic-related sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

While Competition is Increasing, we Believe Charter Remains Well-Positioned

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Charter’s aggressive effort to drive customer penetration by limiting price increases, improving customer service, and expanding its offerings to appeal to a variety of preferences. The firm will successfully navigate growing competition from the phone companies, though growth will likely slow in the coming years. Charter’s aggression extends to its capital structure, where heavy share repurchases have bolstered shareholder returns but have also kept debt leverage high, which will likely add volatility to the share price and could limit financial flexibility.

Charter’s cable networks have provided a significant competitive advantage versus its primary competitors–phone companies like AT&T–as high-quality internet access has become a staple utility. The firm now claims about 70% of the internet access market across the territories it serves, up about 9 percentage points over the past five years and still marching higher. Charter has been able to upgrade its network to meet consumer demand for faster speeds at modest incremental cost while the phone companies have largely ignored their networks across big chunks of the country. Phone companies, notably AT&T, are starting to increase fiber network investment, which will hit Charter at the margin–the firm has faced less fiber competition than its major cable peers. However, the Charter will remain a strong competitor even when faced with improved rival networks.

Wireless technology has emerged as a potential new competitor to fixed-line internet access. The skeptical of wireless’ ability to meet network capacity on a wide scale for the foreseeable future. Also, the dense fixed-line networks like Charter’s will play an increasingly important role in powering wireless networks in the future. Charter also faces declining demand for traditional television services, but here again one cannot believe investors should be concerned. The amount of profit the firm earns from television service has been declining for several years. Internet access, now the bedrock of Charter’s customer relationships, delivers the vast majority of cash flow today.

Financial Strengths

Charter operates under a fairly heavy debt load, with net leverage standing at 4.6 times EBITDA, by our calculation, a level that has held steady in recent quarters. Charter’s management team has run with a net leverage target of 4.0-4.5 times EBITDA over the past several years, typical of firms under the influence of Liberty and John Malone. By the firm’s calculation, net leverage was 4.4 times EBITDA at the end of 2021. This debt level is higher than its peer Comcast, which has typically targeted net leverage of around 2.0-2.5 times EBITDA. On the other hand, Charter’s leverage is more modest than Altice USA’s at roughly 5.5 times EBITDA.

Charter typically directs free cash flow and the proceeds from incremental borrowing to fund share repurchases as a means of keeping leverage within its target range as EBITDA grows. The firm believes that it could reduce leverage quickly if its borrowing costs or business outlook change materially in the future. The firm generated free cash flow of about $8.7 billion in 2021 and spent $17.7 billion repurchasing shares and partnership units held by Advance/Newhouse. As a result, net debt increased to $91 billion from $82 billion at the start of the year. Importantly, free cash flow will face headwinds in the coming years as Charter begins paying federal taxes, which are expected to be meaningful starting in 2022. Charter has actively managed its debt load in recent years, trimming interest rates and pushing out maturities. About $7.5 billion of debt comes due through 2024 and its weighted average maturity stands at about 14 years at an average cost of 4.5%.

Bulls Say

  • Like its cable peers, Charter’s networks provide a platform to easily meet customers’ growing bandwidth demands, which should drive market share gains and strong recurring cash flow.
  • As the second-largest U.S. cable company, Charter has the scale to efficiently adapt to changes hitting the telecom industry. The firm will be a force in the wireless industry eventually.
  • Holding prices down to drive market share gains will pay huge dividends down the road, pushing costs lower and cementing Charter’s competitive position.

Company Description

Charter is the product of the 2016 merger of three cable companies, each with a decades-long history in the business: Legacy Charter, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks. The firm now holds networks capable of providing television, internet access, and phone services to roughly 54 million U.S. homes and businesses, around 40% of the country. Across this footprint, Charter serves 29 million residential and 2 million commercial customer accounts under the Spectrum brand, making it the second-largest U.S. cable company behind Comcast. The firm also owns, in whole or in part, sports and news networks, including Spectrum SportsNet (long-term local rights to Los Angeles Lakers games), SportsNet LA (Los Angeles Dodgers), SportsNet New York (New York Mets), and Spectrum News NY1.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Poshmark Poised for Outsize Growth as Resale Economics and Acceptance Drive Traction

Business Strategy & Outlook

Poshmark is among the largest apparel resale platforms on the market, boasting an interactive marketplace that benefits from a triumvirate of secular tailwinds: social commerce, an ongoing mix shift toward online retail sales, and the stratospheric growth of the apparel resale market. The firm’s strategy coalesces around four key priorities: product innovation, category expansion, international growth, and buyer acquisition. As per neutral view of management’s road map, with the research leaving us unconvinced that Poshmark’s international thrusts are poised to generate excess returns for investors, and surmise that purportedly adjacent categories like consumer electronics, art, or pets may not be concordant with the firm’s apparel core competency.

As a slew of firms have entered the resale space, competition has arisen around exclusive access to customers, inventory assortment, and distribution channels, with long-term equilibrium remaining uncertain. Consolidation looks inevitable, particularly as the scope of those companies’ offerings see increasing overlap, commensurate with category, price point, and geographic expansion. Poshmark’s right to win hinges on its ability to convincingly answer the “why Poshmark?” query, attracting platform participants with some combination of competitive seller services, frictionless listing, quick inventory turnover, attractive fees, broad assortment, and authentication services.

The until cross-listing is viable, each international market must be approached as greenfield development, with local competitors boasting a home field advantage at the outset. Winning any of a handful of culturally similar markets (Canada, Australia, the U.K., Germany, France) would meaningfully expand the long-term addressable market, but it remain dubious of the firm’s entry into India, which has proven notoriously difficult to monetize. Finally, the management to target efforts at ameliorating the shipping pain point, with more diversified last-mile providers and a thrust toward higher-priced products likely helping to defray costs that currently constitute about a quarter of average order values, weighing on GMV growth.

Financial Strengths

The Poshmark’s financial strength as sound. The firm carries no long-term debt, has $597 million in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of the first quarter of 2022, and figures to be free cash flow positive in each of the next three years, by the calculations. The management has adequate wiggle room to pursue moat-bolstering investments, while narrowing operating losses should provide a route to enduring operating profitability by 2026.

Following its IPO, the firm’s capital structure has simplified meaningfully, retiring $50 million in convertible notes issued during the third quarter of 2020 that carried a panoply of derivative clauses. Shareholder dilution hereafter should be limited to those shares issued in the normal course of business. The Poshmark’s waterfall of investment priorities as consistent with other high growth firms: pursuing internal investments and strategic mergers and acquisitions. One cannot anticipate pressure building for shareholder returns through repurchases or cash dividends until the firm achieves operating profitability, with the model suggesting the inception of a modest repurchase program in 2026, though this timeline could be delayed by a strategic acquisition or more circuitous route to positive earnings. As Poshmark emerges from its high-growth phase, and encourage management to consider optimizing the firm’s capital structure (adding debt) and initiating a cash dividend, but this remains a long-dated concern that don’t contemplate a dividend until 2030.

Bulls Say

  • Five straight quarters of operating profitability during 2020 and 2021 (ending in the third quarter of 2021) suggest a strong underlying business model once customer acquisition costs normalize.
  • Early traction in Australia and Canada could augur well for long-term success in those and other culturally similar markets.
  • Adding APIs and analytics tools for wholesalers and liquidators could add another platform use case, while generating higher units per transaction, average order values, and fulfillment cost leverage.

Company Description

Poshmark is one of the largest players in a quickly growing e-commerce resale space, connecting more than 30 million active users on a platform that sells men’s and women’s apparel, accessories, shoes, and more recently consumer electronics and pet products. The marketplace operates in four countries–the U.S., Canada, Australia, and India–with a capital-light, peer-to-peer model that dovetails nicely with prevailing trends toward social commerce, apparel resale, and an ongoing pivot toward the e-commerce channel. With $1.8 billion in 2021 gross merchandise volume, or GMV, the estimate that the firm captured about 13%-14% of the domestic online resale market, with rolling lockdowns and tangled supply chains providing a meaningful impetus for channel trial during 2020 and 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Increase In Operating Expenses And Similar Decline In Rate Case Outcomes Underpins Decline Prediction For Exelon Corp

Business Strategy and Outlook

After spinning off its merchant generation and retail energy segment, Constellation Energy, through a distribution to Exelon shareholders, the new Exelon is now a pure-play electric and gas transmission and distribution utility providing investors a more stable earnings profile. The separation is considered positive for shareholders. A standalone regulated utility strengthens Exelon’s narrow moat and lowers the company’s cost of capital. Exelon’s regulated utilities support the current outlook for 7% earnings growth through 2026, the midpoint of the company’s 6%-8% earnings growth guidance. The company is estimated to spend $36 billion of capital investment through 2026. This investment plan supports the current earnings forecast and dividend growth in line with earnings growth. Exelon operates a diverse set of regulated utilities, including five utilities in the Northeast and the largest investor-owned utility in Illinois.

Regulatory relationships have at times been strained across its Northeast utilities, resulting in low allowed returns. Alternative recovery mechanisms help reduce regulatory lag and risk across the regions for Exelon’s growth capital. Low earned returns below allowed regulated returns should gradually increase to within management’s 9% to 10% goal. Relationships at the company’s most important subsidiary, ComEd, will likely remain strained given allegations of inappropriate lobbying practices tied to the passage of previous utility legislation. Exelon subsequently entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors. Recent Illinois legislation will bring significant changes to the state’s regulatory framework. Current performance base-rate making, which ties allowed returns to the average 30-year Treasury rate, have produced some of the lowest returns among U.S. utilities. After 2023, Illinois utilities may opt in for a four-year rate plan beginning in 2024. Under the multi year plan, ComEd would be allowed to “true-up” earned returns to allowed returns and continue usage-decoupled rates. Regulators could issue incentives and penalties based on performance. The legislation will likely lead to higher returns for the subsidiary

Financial Strength

With over 4.0 times interest coverage, Exelon’s financial health is sound for a regulated utility, particularly given its stable, low-risk business model. With the current forecast for $36 billion of capital spending planned through 2026, Exelon will be a frequent debt issuer. The company has manageable long-term debt maturities and anticipated to be able to refinance its debt as it comes due, maintaining its current debt/capital ratio. The company is expected to issue $1.0 billion in equity to fund its capital investment plan, in line with management’s expectations. Total debt/EBITDA is expected to remain in the 4.5-5.0 times range. Exelon will target a 60% dividend payout ratio. Dividend growth is projected to remain in line with the current 7% annual earnings per-share growth forecast through 2026. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Exelon’s divestiture of its merchant generation eliminates its earnings sensitivity to cyclical commodity prices that have dragged down returns recently. 
  • Exelon has good regulated growth investment opportunities that should support earnings and dividend growth. 
  • Nearly all of the company’s growth capital is recovered through constructive regulatory mechanisms that reduce regulatory lag.

Company Profile 

Exelon serves approximately 10 million power and gas customers at its six regulated utilities in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and Washington, D.C.

(Source: MorningStar)

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