Categories
Technology Stocks

Telstra (TLS) reported solid 1H23 results

Investment Thesis

On valuation grounds relative to the current share price, TLS trades fair value. 

  • Solid FY23 guidance. 
  • Solid dividend yield. 
  • Despite intense competition, subscriber growth numbers remain solid. 
  • In the long-term, the introduction of 5G provides potential growth, however one can continue to monitor the ROIC from the capex spend. 
  • TLS still commands a strong market position and has the ability to invest in growth technologies and areas (e.g., Telstra Ventures) which could provide room for growth.
  •  Industry consolidation leading to improved pricing behavior by competitors.

Key Risks

  • Further cuts to dividends. 
  • Further deterioration in the core mobile and fixed business. 
  • Management fails to deliver on cost-out targets and asset monetisation. 
  • Any increase in churn, particularly in its Mobile segment – worse than expected decrease in average revenue per users (or any price war with competitors). 
  • Any network disruptions/outages. 
  • More competition in its Mobile segment. Merger of TPG Telecom and Vodafone Australia creates a better positioned (financially and resource wise) competitor.
  • Quicker than expected deterioration in margins for its Fixed segment.
  •  Risk of cost blowout in upgrading network and infrastructure to 5G.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Total income was up 6.4% to $11.6bn and Reported and Underlying EBITDA increased +11.4% to $3.9bn, driven by momentum from the mobiles business and acquisition of Digicel Pacific. This resulted in a 25.7% increase in NPAT to $0.9bn. EPS increased 27.1% to 7.5cps (underlying EPS increased by 27.4%).
  • The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 8.5cps which is up 6.3%, and in line with 2H22. The interim dividend represents a 113% pay-out ratio on 1H23 reported earnings per share and is in line with Principle 2 of TLS’ Capital Management Framework to maximize fully franked dividend and seek to grow over time. 
  • TLS’s balance sheet metrics remains solid with credit metrics with management’s comfort zone: debt servicing is 1.9x including acquisition of Digicel Pacific (and versus the 1.8x in the pcp), gearing ratio is 45.8% versus 43.0% in the pcp and interest cover is 13.1x versus 14.5x in the pcp. Trading update (1 January 2023 to 14 February 2023 and compared to pre-Covid) Group domestic revenue declined -4% with +24% growth in Gold Coast and +5% in Brisbane more than offset by -17% decline in Sydney. 
  • Mobil Income increased 9.5% to $5,130m especially driven by the return of international roaming. Post-paid handheld ARPU was up 4.5 percent and SIOs up a net 68,000. Prepaid handheld revenue was up 28.7 percent with unique users up 137,000. EBITDA was up 13.3 percent or by $260m. Margins improved to 43.2% from 41.8% in the pcp, due to increased high-margin service revenue partially offset by higher costs relating to insourcing its retail channel, internal infrastructure and international roaming, and increased low margin hardware revenue.
  • Fixed C&SB. Income of $2,264m, was up +0.2%, impacted by nbn migration. EBITDA margin increased 1.2 percentage points to 2.2% with growth in off-net fixed revenue and cost-out, partly offset by reduction in on-net fixed revenue. nbn reseller EBITDA margin was up to 7 percent from 4 percent in 1H22

Company Description

Telstra Group (TLS) provides telecommunications and information products and services. The company’s key services are the provision of telephone lines, national local and long distance, and international telephone calls, mobile telecommunications, data, internet and on-line. Its key segments are Mobile, Fixed, Data & IP, Foxtel, Network applications and services and Media.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Investor Desk and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Investor Desk and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Investor Desk and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Sonic Healthcare’s share price strongly appreciated on the day of its 1H23 results announcement

Investment Thesis

On valuation grounds relative to the current share price, SHL trades fair value. 

  • As the Covid pandemic subsides, near-term earnings may underwhelm but in the longer term, there’s no doubt that the quality of SHL’s assets, which is geographically diversified and high-quality management team. 
  • The Aging population requires more diagnostic tests, especially as Medicine focuses on preventative medicine. 
  • Market leading positions in pathology (number one in Australia, Germany, Switzerland, and UK number three in the US). Second leading player in Imaging in Australia. 
  • High barriers to entry in establishing global channels. 
  • Ongoing bolt-on acquisitions to supplement organic growth and potentially improve margin from cost synergies. 
  • Leveraged to a falling dollar. 
  • Globally diversified.

Key Risks

  • Disruptive technology leading to reduced diagnostics costs. 
  • Competitive threats leading market share loss. 
  • Deregulation resulting in new pathology collection centres. 
  • Adverse regulatory changes (fee cuts). 
  • Disappointing growth. 
  • Adverse currency movements (AUD, EUR, USD).

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Base business (ex-Covid testing) revenue of $3,703m, was up +9% versus the pcp or up +11% versus the pre-pandemic 1H20. Base business revenue (ex-Covid testing) organic growth was +6% versus 1H22 and +8% versus 1H20 (constant currency, per working day). SHL’s management noted “growth gaining momentum with January 2023 versus January 2020 revenue up 10%, particularly strong in Australian Pathology division”. Base business margins were in line with pre-pandemic levels. 
  • Covid-19 revenue of $379m, represents a decline of -72%. 
  • Total revenue of $4,082m, was down -14% versus the pcp or up +22% versus the prepandemic 1H20. 
  • EBITDA of $920m was down -40% versus the pcp or up +33% versus the pre-pandemic 1H20.
  • Net profit of $382m was down -54% versus the pcp or up 47% versus the pre-pandemic 1H20. Earnings per share was up +52% versus 1H20 (pre-pandemic). 
  • SHL’s gearing level are close to historic lows, with ~A$1.5bn of available liquidity, well positioned to fund growth, with the Company currently progressing several acquisition and contract opportunities.

Company Description

Sonic Healthcare (SHL) is a medical diagnostics company with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. The company provides a comprehensive range of pathology and diagnostic imaging services to medical practitioners, hospitals and their patients along with providing administrative services and facilities to medical practitioners. SHL has three main segments: (1) Pathology/clinical laboratory services based in Australia, NZ, UK, US, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Ireland. (2) Diagnostic imaging services in Australia; and (3) Other which includes medical centre operations (IPN), occupational health services (Sonic Health Plus) and laboratory automation development (GLP Systems).

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Investor Desk and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Investor Desk and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Investor Desk and Banyan Tree.

Categories
LICs LICs

CDO provides exposure to an actively managed long/short portfolio

On 17 November 2021, CDO listed on the ASX. The Company raised $15.55m as part of the IPO Offer, issuing 5.6m shares at a price of $2.7716 per share (the mid-point of the of the NTA at 31 October 2021). The Company has 15.06m shares on issue and a market cap of $41.9m as at 30 November 2021.

The average stock in the ASX 200 is down over 15% whilst the index is down only 1%. Generally speaking, larger capitalization value-style stocks have held up well whilst smaller capitalization and growth-style stocks have experienced significant retracement and a reversal in trend.

CDO provides exposure to an actively managed long/short portfolio, with a long bias, of Australian and international securities. Cadence Asset Management Pty Limited (Cadence) is the Manager of the portfolio. Cadence manages the portfolio of Cadence Capital Limited, which listed in 2006, using a similar investment philosophy and process that is used for the CDO portfolio.  The Company has two stated investment objectives: (1) provide capital growth through investment cycles; and (2) provide fully franked dividends, subject to the Company having sufficient profit reserves and franking credits and it being within prudent business practices.

Cadence Opportunities Fund was down 2.1% in December, compared to the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index which was up 2.7% for the month. The Company has had a strong start to FY22 with the fund up 21.1% over the first six months of the year, outperforming the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 16.5%.

The Board has declared a 7.5 cents fully franked half year dividend, an annualized increase of 25% on last year’s ordinary dividends, reflecting the strong performance of the company over the current year. The current share price is $2.92 and interim dividend equates to a 5.1% annualized fully franked yield or a 7.3% gross yield. 

 (Source: FN Arena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

Fund which provide stable return, diversification by investing bonds

To invest in a diversified portfolio of government and corporate bonds that aims to deliver relatively stable returns with less fluctuation than investing in shares and property.

Approach

FirstChoice Fixed Interest applies a steady multi manager approach, investing in a diverse line up of Australian and global fixed-interest managers. Portfolio returns are driven by the combined effect of blending different active management styles with passive strategies, aiming to achieve style diversification. 

The CFS Investments team decides each manager’s strategic weighting in the portfolio after determining outcomes in the trade-off between potential outperformance and risk. Changes to the strategic weights must first receive approval from the investment committee. External manager screening begins with Mercer’s manager research efforts, which are used to initially screen most managers to build a quality short-list universe. For internally generated ideas, Mercer is also used as an initial sounding board. The team maintains constant dialogue with Mercer about ratings changes and portfolio construction. It then drills down further into the research on short-listed managers, including overseas travel for onsite visits. The team is responsible for manager selection, mix, portfolio review, and monitoring. Portfolio rebalancing to target-weighted manager allocations occurs daily, and tolerance levels are used to avoid unnecessary trading. 

Portfolio

This portfolio invests its funds with seven underlying managers. At November 2021, allocations included a global-aggregate strategy from Wellington (19%) and Morgan Stanley (9.5%), bottom-up global credit strategies from Loomis Sayles (10%) and Franklin Templeton (12.5%), and global sovereign and currency strategies from H2O (9.5%), and Colchester (11.5%). Passive indexed Australian bond exposure is run by First Sentier (28%). Active allocation was reduced from 13% in 2016 to 8% and finally removed altogether in February 2020 following the departure of senior investors in Louisville, Kentucky. The style diversification of managers alongside some passive exposure makes for a durable portfolio suitable as a core holding but one that may also lead to benchmark-like returns.

Performance

FirstChoice Fixed Interest has a solid long-term record, in particular since the global financial crisis. It is ahead of the peer group average and ahead of its own 50/50 composite benchmark net of fees, made up of the FTSE World Broad Investment Grade Index (hedged to AUD) and the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+Yr Index. The strategy has consistently outpaced most peers over the long term, though in 2014 and 2015, it trailed the index as bond yields fell, with First Sentier detracting because of a short-duration stance on Australian rates. Colchester’s underweighting in Europe, Japan, and the UK hurt as their yields continued to fall in the first half of 2016. Colchester staged a rebound in the second half that continued through 2017. As in 2017, strong performance from H2O was a key driver of outperformance for the strategy in 2018. This continued into 2019 with H2O contributing significantly to outperformance. The year 2020 was a challenge, with the coronavirus pandemic causing havoc in global markets, Franklin Templeton contributing negative, and below-index performance for the year. 2021 has been difficult, with bond market sell-offs during February and October creating large drawdowns category wide for managers with meaningful duration exposure. Still, over the trailing three-, five-, and 10-year periods to November 2021 the strategy remains in the top quartile for performance.

Top 10 Holdings of the fund

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About the fund

To provide relatively stable returns with low potential for capital loss by investing in Australian and global fixed interest securities .To outperform the composite benchmark of 50% FTSE World Broad Investment Grade Index, hedged to Australian dollars and 50% Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+Yr Index over rolling three-year periods before fees and taxes

The investments are managed by a number of leading fixed interest managers comprising an index manager whose investments aim to mirror the index, and active managers who aim to outperform the index. This is designed to deliver more consistent returns with less risk than would be achieved if investing with a single investment manager. The portfolio aims to hedge currency risk.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

JPMorgan Global Macro Opportunities Fund- multi-asset macro thematic fund targets positive returns in various market conditions

Investment Objective

To achieve capital appreciation in excess of its cash benchmark by investing primarily in securities, globally, using financial derivative instruments where appropriate.

Investment Process

The Fund’s investment process is driven by the investment team’s proprietary macroeconomic research agenda. The process is best summarized by the diagram below. The added advantage is the investment team’s ability to leverage JP Morgan’s extensive global platform for insights and reach. The team is regularly assessing existing and new investment strategies via daily meetings, weekly macro discussion, monthly core views updates and then also a quarterly strategy summit. 

A macro theme must be sufficiently different to existing themes already in the portfolio and the team needs to be able to measure the trends of changes it captures.

Investment strategy. A strategy can be sourced from anywhere including the investment team or JP Morgan’s broader global investment network. Each recommended strategy has a clearly defined macro-theme. The team categorizes each strategy into two broad categories – Traditional (e.g. long-only exposure) and Sophisticated (e.g. derivatives, directional).  

Portfolio construction and management

Portfolio Construction & Management. The lead portfolio manager has the ultimate decision-making power on which investment strategies are included in the portfolio, the team does generally tend to follow a consensus approach. The portfolio can have exposure across all major asset classes – equity, fixed income, commodities, currency and advanced derivatives – and exposure to both developed and emerging markets. The portfolio at any one time is expected to be made up of 6 to 10 macro-economic themes, which can equate to between 20 – 40 strategies. This means the overall portfolio can hold at any one time, typically, 100-150 securities. While monitoring the macro is continual, much of the macro debate is at a monthly meeting, where the teams might discuss risks to their core theses and potential paths of evolution in the macro landscape, as well as making changes to the macro themes, including removing or adding a new theme.

Investment Team 

Shrenick Shah: Shrenick Shah, managing director, is head of the Macro Strategies team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, based in London. An employee since September 2010, Shrenick previously worked in the equity divisions at Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse. Shrenick obtained a M.Sc. in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from the London School of Economics.

Benoit Lanctot: Benoit Lanctot, Executive Director, is a portfolio manager in the Macro Strategies team, based in London. An employee since July 2011, Benoit previously worked as a senior analyst in the Convertible Bond team within Multi-Asset Solutions, responsible for the implementation of the fundamental analysis framework with global coverage. Prior to that, Benoit worked in investment banking for the Diversified Industries Group of Scotia Capital Inc. based in Montreal, Canada. He obtained a B.BA with a major in Finance from HEC Montreal and a Masters in Finance from London Business School. Benoit is a CFA and a CAIA charter holder. 

Josh Berelowitz: Josh Berelowitz, executive director, is a portfolio manager in the Macro Strategies team, based in London. An employee since September 2011, Josh has been focused on the macro portfolios since inception of the strategy in November 2012. Josh obtained a B.Sc. in Economics from the University of Nottingham and is a CFA charter holder.

Virginia Heriz: Virginia Heriz, executive director, portfolio manager in the Macro Strategies team, based in London. An employee since November 2019, Virginia previously was a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments where she was responsible for tactical asset allocation portfolios and segregated multi asset mandates. Prior to that, Virginia was an analyst covering global financials at Martin Currie Investment Management. Virginia has a Diplôme d’Ingénieur from the École Nationale Supérieure des Telecommunications, Paris and a Masters in Telecommunications Engineering form the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. 

Fund Performance and Positioning 

About Fund

The Fund employs a macro-thematic investment framework to achieve capital appreciation in excess of its cash benchmark by investing primarily in global securities, with the ability to use financial derivatives. The Fund targets +7.0% p.a. annualized over the medium term (net of fees) and/or above the Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index, with a volatility of less than 10% p.a.

(Source: Banyantree and Investment centre)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Investor Desk. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Investor Desk and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Investor Desk and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Investor Desk and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Investor Desk and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Investor Desk and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Investor Desk and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Baxter Announces Renal Spinoff to Unlock Value in Discounted Shares

Business Strategy & Outlook: 

Following the spinoff of Baxalta in mid-2015, Baxter’s new management team has focused on increasing efficiencies and innovating in medical products. That focus has resulted in much-improved profitability and cash flow generation since then. In the intermediate term, the company aims for mid-single-digit sales growth primarily through new product launches and for double-digit adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow growth compounded annually. Acquisitions, like the recent combination with Hill Rom (medical equipment like hospital beds with digital connection capabilities), could add to those prospects. Baxter’s renal and acute care technology supports patients with failing organs, most often kidneys. Baxter generates most of its revenue in these segments from at-home patients using its peritoneal dialysis, or PD, tools. However, it also sells hemodialysis products to dialysis clinics and continuous renal replacement therapy and other organ support equipment to intensive care units, which saw a boost in demand during the coronavirus pandemic. While some new product launches were delayed during the pandemic, this segment should continue to benefit from new hemo-and peritoneal-dialysis launches in the future. Additionally, increased demand for at-home dialysis tools should benefit Baxter in PD generally. Baxter also provides many injectable therapies. In pharmaceuticals, Baxter is pursuing an ambitious growth strategy to roughly double the number of molecules it sells through a variety of delivery options, including premixes. In advanced surgery, Baxter sells wound closure and bleeding control products. New products aim to help clinicians save time in the operating room. In medication delivery and nutrition, management has turned around these operations after recent hurricanes and regulatory concerns damaged Baxter’s reputation as a reliable supplier of these critical therapies. New product launches, including several infusion pumps, may boost growth in these segments in a post pandemic environment, too.

Risk and Uncertainty

It is believed that Baxter shed its riskier assets through the Baxalta spinoff, leaving a well-diversified company that participates in markets with limited risk of significant disruption. However, some of Baxter’s product lines, particularly IV solutions, nutritional products, and generic injectables, have been commodified and face significant quality control issues that contribute to the firm’s environmental, social, and governance risks. If new competitors decide to make the substantial up-front and ongoing investments needed to participate in these markets, it is thought pricing pressures, which have been manageable through volume increases or mix benefits on differentiated delivery systems, may accelerate, especially in an increasingly cost conscious healthcare system—another one of Baxter’s key ESG-related risks. It is also believed that Baxter must innovate to maintain its competitive advantages, particularly in renal care, infusion pumps, acute therapy, and advanced surgery. If the company does not invest appropriately in these product sets, its peers may surpass Baxter’s technology enough to affect market share eventually. The Hill Rom acquisition has also put some pressure on Baxter’s ROICs and added leverage to its balance sheet, which highlights another ESG risk for Baxter: corporate governance-related risks surrounding acquisitions. 

Bulls Say:

  • New management has revved up Baxter’s growth engine, primarily around evolutionary goals in all of the major business lines. 
  • Emerging markets are a prime source of growth for many of Baxter’s products, especially its peritoneal dialysis and nutrition solutions. 
  • The company continues to strive for even higher profitability, which should keep earnings growth above sales growth for the foreseeable future

Company Description:

Baxter offers a variety of medical instruments and supplies to caregivers. It enhanced its portfolio of hospital-focused offerings by acquiring Hill Rom in late 2021. Legacy Baxter offers tools to help patients with acute and chronic kidney failure. It also sells a variety of injectable therapies for use in care settings, such as IV pumps, administrative sets, and solutions; nutritional products; and surgical sealants and hemostatic agents. The company offers contract manufacturing services to pharmaceutical companies. The Hillrom transaction has added basic equipment, including hospital beds, to the portfolio, although about half of Hillrom’s 2021 revenue came from more digitally connected offerings like its smart beds and Voalte medical communications app.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

PTM continued to struggle with outflows primarily due to weak absolute investment returns

Investment Thesis

  • Trades on an attractive dividend yield. 
  • PTM is in a position to attract net inflows as value-oriented strategies may make a sustained comeback.
  • Further pressure can be seen on the funds management industry and fees (as a result of industry and super funds building inhouse capabilities and passive investing with significantly lower fees/asset allocators becomes more of the norm). 
  • Change in management or investment management team. 
  • Industry consolidation could benefit PTM (potential M&A target).

Key Risks

  • Any significant outperformance across funds. 
  • Kerr Neilson’s departure from the Board could be disruptive. 
  • Potential change in regulation (superannuation) with more focus on retirement income (annuities) than wealth creation. 
  • There are earnings risks to the downside from pressures on fees. 
  • Emergence of industry funds who are building in-house capabilities. 
  • PTM’s investment style becomes out of favour.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Total revenue declined -26.4% y/y to $232.8m, as fee revenue decreased -6.1% y/y to $252.7m, with -7.2% y/y decline in management fees (excluding performance fees) amid -8.5% y/y decline in average FUM to $21.4bn, partially offset by +67.5% y/y increase in performance fees to $6.7m, primarily from absolute return mandates and Asia strategy driven largely by the benefit of downside protection provided by short positions, and the company incurred $20.4m unrealised losses on seed investments vs $46.7m profit in pcp. 
  • Expenses increased +4.7% y/y to $86.1m, primarily driven by +3.9% y/y increase in staff costs reflecting increase in share-based payment expenses due to additional deferred equity granted to employees, and +16.7% increase in business development expenses which included the launch of the Platinum Investment Bond product (and its direct to-market proposition) and associated new campaigns, the growth in social media advertising, and third-party distribution costs. 
  • Underlying NPAT, which excludes gains and losses on seed investments (net of tax), declined -10.9% y/y to $118.2m. 
  • FUM declined -22.6% y/y to $18.2bn, driven by negative investment performance of $2.2bn, net fund outflows of $2.2bn and the net distribution paid to investors of $0.9bn. 
  • The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 7cps, down -42% y/y, equating to ~9.8% annualized yield, taking the full year dividend to fully franked 17cps, down -29% y/y. 
  • The Board extended its on-market share buyback for upto 10% of issued share capital for further period of upto 12-months, commencing from 4th October 2022, intending to buy shares should the Board determine that PTM’s share price is trading at a significant discount to its underlying value. 
  • International Fund delivered absolute performance of -5.9% during the year, outperforming the MSCI AC World Net Index ($A) by +210 bps, as negative impact by contrarian view on inflation/loss making tech/EM/commodities was more than offset by benefit of downside protection provided by short positions. However, the fund continues to underperform the benchmark by -380bps and -200bps on a 5-year and 10-year basis, respectively, while delivering outperformance of +440 bps (p.a.) since inception.
  •  Asia Fund delivered 1-year absolute return of -14.5%, however, outperformed benchmark by +360 bps, returning to outperformance of +230 bps, +200 bps and +410 bps (p.a.) over 5-year, 10-year and since inception basis.

Company Description

Platinum Asset Management (PTM) is an ASX-listed, Australian based fund manager which specializes in investing in international equities. PTM currently manages ~A$18.2bn.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

For PBH the Australian business performance was solid, whilst the U.S. business was awarded provisional license for Kansas

Investment Thesis

  • U.S. growth opportunity – the U.S. online sports betting market continues to open following the 2018 supreme court ruling which legalizes the industry. Market growth estimates forecast the industry to grow to US$51bn by 2033. 
  • Strong management team with a solid track record – the ability to grow market share in a competitive and mature market of Australia gives us some confidence the management team has the right strategy in place to build share in the U.S. 
  • Proprietary technology stack – The speed and usability are key differentiating factors. PBH operates proprietary technology, which it developed inhouse. This means new modifications and updates are easier to implement (i.e., more control) with inhouse tech versus outsourced (i.e., having to go to an external provider each time with an update). 
  • Cross sell opportunities with iGaming – PBH’s recently launched iGaming product (online casino) is already highlighting cross-sell opportunities to its customers.

Key Risks

  • Rising competitive pressures. 
  • Adverse regulatory change in key operating jurisdictions (Australia / U.S.). 
  • Loss of market share in key regions or growth rate fails to meet market expectations.
  • Higher than expected costs – especially around investment in sales & marketing to drive market share. 
  • Trading on high PE-multiples / valuations means the Company is more prone to share price volatility.
  •  Cyber-attack on PBH’s platform. 
  • Deeply discounted capital raising.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • The Group’s net win for the year was $309.4m and net revenue of $296.5m, which was up +52% YoY.
  • Group gross profit of $121.6m was up +39% YoY, however gross profit margin was down to 41% from 45% due to a lower gross profit margin in the Australian trading business due to higher taxes and product fees, including an increase in the point of consumption tax in Victoria from 1st of July 2021. Also impacting margin was product mix with a higher contribution of revenue from betting events which attract higher product fees. 
  • Group sales and marketing expenses were up +38.7% YoY to $236.8m, with U.S. marketing up +36% to $162.6m, Australia up +20% to $61.5m and $12.8m for Canada. Management highlighted that they saw an aggressive uplift in competitor marketing spend in the US. In FY23, management does not expect U.S. marketing expense to exceed FY22 levels in the U.S. and will look to regionalize marketing expense and reduce spend in some of the less targeted acquisition channels. In Australia, FY23 marketing expense is expected to be slightly higher than FY22 levels. In Canada, FY23 marketing expense is expected to run annually at a quarterly rate similar to the Q422 marketing expense of C$7m. 
  • The Australian trading business reported net revenue of $195.2m, up +30% YoY and EBITDA of $7.7m was down -16.3% due to lower gross profit margins and higher marketing expense. 
  • U.S. trading business reported net revenue of $98.7m, up +133% YoY, and an EBITDA loss of $197.4m versus loss of $149.6m in the pcp, which was primarily driven by the U.S. marketing expense as PBH expanded operations across 10 U.S. states and grow U.S. based team. Management noted the progress they made during the year.
  • Corporate costs of $25.6m were significantly higher than $12.4m in the pcp due to higher employee benefits, listing costs, capital raising costs and start-up costs for Canada.
  • Group normalized EBITDA loss over FY22 was $243.6m versus a loss of $156.1m in the pcp – that is down – 56% YoY. Loss for the year was $266.9m versus $164.9m in the pcp. 
  • Balance sheet – the Company raised $400m via equity raising and a strategic placement of $94.2m to SIG Sports Investment Corp in Jun-22. The Company is adequately funded to execute on its strategy in the near term with a cash balance as at 30 Jun-22 of $473m.

Company Description

PointsBet Holdings Ltd (PBH), founded in 2015, is a corporate bookmaker with operations in Australia and the United States (New Jersey, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana). PointsBet has developed a scalable cloud-based wagering platform which offers customers sports and racing wagering products. PBH’s key products include fixed odds sports, fixed odds racing and Points Betting.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Pact Group reported disappointing FY22 results, despite the Company seeing increasing demand for recycled content

Investment Thesis

  • Solid market share in Australia and growing presence in Asia. Hence provides attractive exposure to both developed and emerging markets’ growth. 
  • Valuation is fair on the forward estimates. 
  • Management appears to be less focused on acquired growth going forward, which means there is a less of a chance for the Company to make a value destructive acquisition.
  • Reinstatement of the dividend is positive and highlights management’s confidence in future earnings growth. 
  • Focusing on sustainable packaging in an environmentally friendly market.

Key Risks

  • Competitive pressures leading to further margin erosion. 
  • Input cost pressures which the company is unable to pass on to customers. 
  • Deterioration in economic conditions in Australia and Asia. 
  • Emerging markets risk.
  •  Poor acquisitions or not achieving synergy targets as PGH moves to reduce its dependency on packaging for food, diary, and beverage clients to more high growth sectors such as healthcare.
  •  Adverse currency movements (purchased raw materials in U.S. dollars)

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Revenue of $1,838m was up +4%, driven by solid demand for sustainable packaging and recycled products.
  •  FY22 underlying EBIT was in line with guidance provided at 1H22. However, underlying EBIT of $156m, was down -15%, with EBIT from Packaging & Sustainability of $110m, up +5% more than offset by declines in Material Handling & Pooling underlying EBIT of $50m, down -8%, and Contract Manufacturing underlying EBIT, which saw a loss of -$4m (versus $24m in the pcp).
  • Underlying NPAT of $70m was down -25% largely due to the absence of one-off revenue in the Contract Manufacturing segment recorded in FY21. Reporting NPAT of $12m was significantly down – 86%. 
  • The Board declared a final dividend of 1.5cps, franked to 65%, which brings FY22 total dividend to 5cps, down -55% and equates to a payout ratio of 25% of underlying NPAT. 
  • PGH acquired Synergy Packaging for ~$20m which adds to sustainable health and beauty packaging. 
  • PGH began operations at Circular Plastics Australia (PET) recycling facility in Albury-Wodonga with international food grade certification in place and producing recycled resin for joint venture partners. 
  • PGH maintained gearing of 2.7x, within its target range, with net debt at $561m, $24m lower than pcp, and operating cash conversion of $253m. 
  • Packaging and Sustainability. The segment achieved reported revenue of $1.209 billion, up +7% and underlying EBIT of $110m, up +5%, despite tough trading conditions, driven by strong results in the New Zealand dairy and fresh food businesses, large format industrial packaging in Australia, and contract wins in the Asian closures business. 
  • Materials Handling and Pooling. The segment saw reported revenue of $354m, up +3% but a decline in underlying EBIT of -8% to $50m. A strong performance in Pooling which saw volume growth against the backdrop of supply chain challenges, and growth in Infrastructure business was offset by a slowdown in activity in Sulo mobile garbage bin business as local councils delayed tenders for bin contracts.
  • Contract Manufacturing. As previously advised in 1H22 by management, the segment reported a decline in revenue of -5% to $306m and underlying EBIT loss of $4m, with the segment impacted negatively in 2H22 by elevated raw material pricing, supply chain costs, and lower volumes.

Company Description

Pact Group Holdings Ltd (PGH) was established by Raphael Geminder in 2002 (Mr. Geminder remains a major shareholder with ~44% and is the brother-in-law of Anthony Pratt, Chairman of competitor Visy). Pact has operations throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia and conceives, designs, and manufactures packaging (plastic resin and steel) for many products in the food (especially dairy and beverage), chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Northern Star Resources reported solid 1H22 results – the first reported results since NST’s merger with Saracen

Investment Thesis

  • On track to achieve FY22 production and operational guidance. 
  • Commodities price (Gold) surprises on the upside especially due to geopolitical tensions.
  • Leveraged to changes in the USD. 
  • Solid assets with reserve/resource. 
  • New acquisitions provide upside (resource and operational improvement). 
  • Strong management team with significant mining expertise. 
  • Strong balance sheet. 
  • Company has a good track record of shareholder return.

Key Risks

  • Further deterioration in global macroeconomic conditions. 
  • Deterioration in global gold supply & demand equation. 
  • Deterioration in gold prices. 
  • Production issues, delay or unscheduled mine shutdown. 
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Revenue of A$1,807m was up +63%, mainly driven by higher gold volumes, with gold sales 289,786 ounces higher. Reported NPAT of A$261m, was up +43% (or Underlying NPAT of A$108m, excluding significant items of A$153m) was driven by higher production. 
  • Underlying EBITDA of A$699m, was up +47%, on a margin of 39%. Cost of sales were higher than the pcp due to increased activity with the inclusion of the Saracen Minerals Holdings’ merger assets in the current half (107% increase period on period), higher average cash costs per ounce (H1 2022: A$1,256/oz vs H1 2021: A$1,196/oz) and the increase in D&A unit costs (increase of A$291/sold oz), due to the required non-cash uplift to fair value of the merger assets, compared to the historic cash cost of those same assets. 
  • NST saw cash earnings of A$430m. 
  • NST retained a strong balance sheet with cash and bullion of A$588m; net cash of A$288m. 
  • The Board declared fully franked interim dividend of 10cps, up +5%. 
  • NST remains on track with its key growth projects progressing as expected to become a 2Mozpa producer by FY26, including KCGM open pit development (Kalgoorlie) and Thunderbox mill expansion (Yandal). 
  • In 1H22, NST made net repayment of A$361m of corporate bank debt, completed its acquisition of Newmont’s power business for A$130m and made a A$170m investment in a Convertible Debenture with Osisko Mining Inc. NST also sold Kundana Assets realising A$402m (and contributing a pre-tax gain of A$242m). 
  • Relative valuation. Relative to Australian peer group (NCM, RRL, SBM, EVN) average, NST is currently trading on a 2-yr forward EV / EBITDA multiple of 5.1x (vs peer avg 5.0x) and yield of 3.2% (vs peer avg 2.6%). On 2-yr forward PE-multiple, NST is currently trading on a multiple of 19.8x vs peer group average 14.8x.

Company Description

Northern Star Resources Limited (Northern Star) is a gold production and exploration company with a Mineral Resource base of 10.2 million ounces and Ore Reserves of 3.5 million ounces, located in highly prospective regions of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. NST is the third largest gold producer in Australia. The Company also recently acquired a gold mine in Alaska.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.