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Lilly’s Robust Pipeline and Currently Marketed Portfolio Set Up Industry Leading Growth

Business Strategy & Outlook

Eli Lilly’s innovative culture and strong financial commitment to developing the next generation of drugs set the company apart from its peers and fuel its long-term growth. Following a very steep patent cliff in 2014, Lilly’s growth prospects are improving as the company is launching several new blockbusters and patent losses are fading. Lilly’s internal pipeline is well positioned to mitigate the patent losses during the next decade. The company tends to spend low to mid-20% of its sales on financing the development efforts of new drugs, much higher than the high-teens industry average. The robust pipeline is a result of Lilly’s strong commitment to research. The diabetes drugs Trulicity and Jardiance and immunology drug Taltz along with cancer drug Verzenio hold the highest sales potential of Lilly’s currently launched drugs. Further, pipeline drugs lebrikizumab (atopic dermatitis), mirikizumab (immunology), tirzepatide (diabetes) and donanemab (Alzheimer’s) hold major blockbuster potential. Lilly’s strong entrenchment in insulin production should also help the company deal with patent losses. 

Unlike traditional drugs, Lilly’s insulin drugs are very hard to copy by generics and create barriers to entry for non insulin producers because of the large up-front investments needed to create scale efficiencies. Further, Lilly’s longer acting biosimilar insulin should help the company secure its market share. Additionally, a new weekly insulin in late-stage development offers another avenue of growth in this mature market. The company is taking a hard look at its bottom line. Through a combination of cost savings and expected top-line growth, Lilly aims to expand operating margins over the next several years, which is achievable. Lilly expects to increase its gross margin through productivity initiatives and greater capacity utilization. Overall, the strong traction of recently launched high-margin drugs in immunology and oncology as supporting the overall profitability gains.

Financial Strengths

With strong cash flows derived from a stable and diversified product portfolio, Eli Lilly remains on solid financial footing. The company’s debt/EBITDA level will fall from close to 2.1 times in 2021 to close to 1.5 times by 2023. Also, the debt/capital ratio will fall from close to 65% in 2021 to 58% in 2023 as cash flows accrue over the years. With its strong growth prospects, one doesn’t expect Lilly will need to make any major acquisitions to drive growth. Nevertheless, tuck-in acquisitions will augment growth for the company over the next decade.

Bulls Say

  • Lilly is developing a new Alzheimer’s drug (donanemab) that could become a major blockbuster, especially because the FDA appears to have a lower threshold for accelerated approval for this disease.
  • Lilly’s cancer drug Verzenio reported strong data in early-stage breast cancer, opening up the potential to be the first CDK 4/6 drug to launch in this multi-billion-dollar market.
  • Lilly is increasing its focus on developing drugs for unmet medical indications in neurology and oncology. The strategy should improve the success rate at the FDA and drive strong pricing power.

Company Description

Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, endocrinology, cancer, and immunology. Lilly’s key products include Verzenio for cancer; Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for diabetes; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Pebblebrook should continue to recover as business and group travel eventually returns to 2019 levels by 2024

Business Strategy & Outlook

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust is the largest U.S. lodging REIT focused on owning independent and boutique hotels. After Pebblebrook merged with LaSalle Hotel Properties in December 2018, the company owns 54 upper-upscale hotels, with more than 13,300 rooms located in urban, gateway markets. Pebblebrook’s combined portfolio has a higher revenue per available room price point and EBITDA margin than its hotel REIT peers. The recent merger with LaSalle provides Pebblebrook some new avenues to create value for shareholders. The company doubled in size while taking on only a portion of the general and administrative costs, making the combined company more efficient. Pebblebrook’s CEO, Jon Bortz, previously ran LaSalle and acquired many of the hotels in that portfolio. His knowledge of those hotels combined with management’s demonstrated ability to maximize margins should allow him to implement cost-saving initiatives that drive up margins. Additionally, management has begun an extensive renovation program across both the LaSalle portfolio and the legacy portfolio that will drive EBITDA gains over time.

In the short term, the coronavirus outbreak significantly affected the operating results for Pebblebrook’s hotels, with high-double-digit revPAR declines and negative hotel EBITDA in 2020. However, the rapid rollout of vaccinations allowed leisure travel to quickly return, driving high growth in both 2021 and 2022. The company should continue to recover as business and group travel eventually returns to 2019 levels by 2024. However, there are several factors that will remain headwinds for hotels over the long term. Supply has been elevated in many of the biggest markets, and that is likely to continue for a few more years. Online travel agencies and online hotel reviews create immediate price discovery for consumers, preventing hotels from pushing rate increases even though it is nearing full occupancy on many nights. Finally, while the shadow supply created by Airbnb doesn’t directly compete on most nights, it does limit Pebblebrook’s ability to push rates on nights when it would have typically generated its highest profits.

Financial Strengths

Pebblebrook is in solid financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective after the merger with LaSalle, but the additional assets sales will put the company in great financial shape. The company seeks to maintain a solid but flexible balance sheet, which will serve stakeholders well. Pebblebrook does not currently have an unsecured debt rating. Instead, it uses secured debt on its high-quality portfolio and takes out unsecured term loans. Debt maturities in the near term should be manageable through a combination of refinancing and the company’s free cash flow. Additionally, the company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition opportunities arise. In the year 2024, the operations will fully return to normal, net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest will be roughly 5.5 and 5.8 times, respectively, both of which are within the long-term target for the company and should continue to improve over time. As a REIT, Pebblebrook is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cash flow from operating activities, providing plenty of flexibility for capital allocation and investment decisions. Pebblebrook will continue to be able to access the capital markets given its current solid balance sheet and its large, higher-quality, unencumbered asset base.

Bulls Say

  • Potentially accelerating economic growth may prolong a robust hotel cycle and benefit Pebblebrook’s portfolio and performance.
  • The acquisition of the LaSalle Hotel Trust portfolio provides management many renovation opportunities to drive revenue and margin growth.
  • After the merger, Pebblebrook’s larger size could increase the company’s negotiating power with online travel agencies.

Company Description

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust currently owns upper-upscale and luxury hotels with 13,366 rooms across 54 hotels in the United States. Pebblebrook acquired LaSalle Hotel Properties, which owned 10,451 rooms across 41 U.S. hotels, in December 2018, the company current Pebblebrook CEO founded in 1998, though management has sold many of those hotels over the past few years. Pebblebrook’s portfolio consists mostly of independent hotels with no brand affiliations, though the combined company does own and operate some hotels under Marriott, Starwood, InterContinental, Hilton,

and Hyatt brands.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

HCA’s strategies have generally yielded positive results over the long run

Business Strategy and Outlook 

HCA operates the largest network of hospitals in the United States, focusing on attractive geographic locations where it has the potential for leading and increasing market share. While it has locations in nearly 20 states and headquarters in Nashville, its facilities are particularly concentrated in Texas and Florida, which represent over half of its bed count. In those states, urban areas of focus include Dallas, Austin, Tampa, and Miami, and those geographic areas provide a good sense of the positive demographic factors that the firm aims to benefit from across the country.

Within its target markets, HCA aims to expand market share through a variety of strategies to attract patients, physicians, and third-party payers. The company provides wide networks of facilities within its chosen geographic markets with key hospital anchors supported by ambulatory surgical centers, urgent care centers, and physician clinics at convenient access points. HCA aims to be the facility of choice for physicians who are typically free agents with practicing rights to other hospitals in the area. For example, HCA has spent the past decade or so investing in its surgical suites to improve efficiency, nursing, and technology offerings to appeal to surgeons scheduling those procedures and positively influence patient satisfaction, which builds on the reputation of HCA’s facilities. From a payer standpoint, HCA continues to contract with health insurers in three-year cycles, which is typically manageable but is causing some concerns due to spiking labor costs. Overall though, HCA’s strategies have generally yielded positive results over the long run. For example, the company continues to grind out market share gains in its local markets with market share standing at roughly 27% at the end of 2020, up from 23% in 2011, according to HCA management. Once HCA works through current labor challenges, the firm is to grow its top line in the mid single digits and its adjusted earnings per share to grow in the low double digits.

Financial Strength

At the end of 2021, the company owed about $35 billion in debt, or gross leverage of less than 3 times, or below its new leverage target of 3.0 to 4.0 times, which is down from 3.5 and 4.5 times previously. At the end of 2021, HCA held just under $2 billion in cash after returning the government aid that it was originally granted during the COVID-19 health crisis of 2020. With those liquid resources at its disposal and free cash flows expected to range between roughly $5 billion and $7 billion annually during the next five years, HCA should be able to manage its debt maturities during the next five years through internal means. Those maturities include $0.2 billion due in 2022, $2.9 billion due in 2023, $2.4 billion due in 2024, $4.6 billion due in 2025, and $5.3 billion in 2026. However, the company plans to return significant cash to stakeholders going forward. As of February 2022, the company was authorized to repurchase about $9 billion in shares, which the firm expects to use in the next couple of years. Also, HCA just reinstated its dividend ($0.6 billion annual run rate), which was temporarily suspended during the pandemic. The company also distributed about $0.7 billion in cash to noncontrolling interests in 2021, and those outflows might grow mildly going forward. Overall, HCA’s planned distributions to stakeholders may lead to more debt issuance to refinance maturities or even to finance some of these outflows to stakeholders, going forward.


Bulls Say’s

  • Beyond administrative function efficiency, HCA’s large scale gives it an opportunity to test and expand best practices throughout its network of facilities to improve service quality and efficiency. 
  • HCA’s focus on attractive geographic locations gives it a volume tailwind that should positively affect its top line. 
  • The company’s financial leverage should be easily manageable, giving HCA flexibility for U.S. healthcare policy changes or other shocks to the system that could constrain demand for the more elective, and highly profitable, parts of its business.

Company Profile 

HCA Healthcare is a Nashville-based healthcare provider organization operating the largest collection of acute-care hospitals in the U.S. As of December 2021, the firm owned and operated 182 hospitals, 125 freestanding outpatient surgery centers, and a broad network of physician offices, urgent care clinics, and freestanding emergency rooms across nearly 20 states and a small foothold in England.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Albemarle to generate healthy bromine profits due to its low-cost position in the Dead Sea

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Albemarle is the world’s largest producer of lithium, which generates roughly half of total profits. It produces lithium through its own salt brine assets in Chile and the United States and two joint venture interests in Australian mines, Talison and Wodgina. The Chilean operation is among the world’s lowest-cost sources of lithium. Talison is one of the best spodumene resources in the world, which allows Albemarle to be one of the lowest-cost lithium hydroxide producers as spodumene can be converted directly into hydroxide. As electric vehicle adoption increases, a high-double-digit annual growth in global lithium demand can be seen. In response, Albemarle plans to expand its lithium production from 88,000 metric tons in 2021 to over 450,000 metric tons over the next decade. This includes the company’s 60% interest in the Wodgina spodumene operation from Mineral Resources. Mineral Resources retains the other 40% interest and the two operate a joint venture, though this will likely become a 50-50 JV as the two are in discussions to expand the partnership. The joint venture will begin producing spodumene (lithium hard rock concentrate) and one 50,000-metric-ton lithium hydroxide plant in Australia. Albemarle will continue to increase its lithium capacity largely through brownfield expansions at existing operations, including the expansion of recently acquired spodumene conversion assets in China.

Albemarle is the world’s second-largest producer of bromine, a chemical used primarily in flame retardants for electronics. Bromine prices have begun to rise as increased demand for use in servers and automobile electronics is offset by a decline in demand from TVs, desktops, and laptops as well as lower demand for bromine used in oilfield completion fluids. Over the long term, Albemarle is to generate healthy bromine profits due to its low-cost position in the Dead Sea. Albemarle is also a top producer of catalysts used in oil refining and petrochemical production. These chemicals are highly tailored to specific refineries. However, the company is conducting a strategic review and may ultimately divest the business.

Financial Strength

Albemarle is in good financial health. As of March 31, 2022, the company’s net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.9 times, within management’s target for a long-term ratio of 2-2.5 times. Albemarle should be able to meet all of its financial obligations, including dividends. Albemarle is completing the construction of two new lithium projects that were initially funded with a combination of debt and excess cash flow from its bromine and catalysts businesses. However, Albemarle raised equity in early 2021 as a way to deleverage its balance sheet and provide financial flexibility. This move made sense, given that the stock price was above the fair value estimate at the time. After 2022, Albemarle plans to expand its lithium capacity largely through the build-out of brownfield capacity and new greenfield spodumene conversion plants in China. While these expansions will likely be capital-intensive, they should be cheaper than building new greenfield lithium production assets in higher cost regions such as Australia. This should allow Albemarle to maintain the financial flexibility to expand its lithium capacity without considerably straining its balance sheet. Additionally, high lithium prices should allow the company to generate more cash flow from its existing businesses as a way to partially fund future capacity expansions. Further, Albemarle is undergoing a strategic review of the catalysts business and could divest it to pay for a considerable amount of the lithium capital expenditures over the next several years. Additionally, Albemarle could opt to raise capital through additional equity issuances if needed.

Bulls Say’s

  • Albemarle has top-tier lithium assets through its brine operations in Chile and spodumene hard-rock operations in Western Australia, which are among the lowest-cost sources of lithium production globally. 
  • Lithium prices will remain well above the marginal cost of production through at least the remainder of the decade, leading to excess profits and return on invested capital for Albemarle. 
  • Albemarle has low-cost bromine production through its highly concentrated brines in the Dead Sea and Arkansas

Company Profile 

Albemarle is the world’s largest lithium producer. The robust lithium demand is predicated upon increased demand for electric vehicle batteries. Albemarle produces lithium from its salt brine deposits in Chile and the U.S. and its hard rock joint venture mines in Australia. Albemarle is also a global leader in the production of bromine, used in flame retardants. The company is also a major producer of oil refining catalysts.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Narrow-Moat Alcon Has Defensive Characteristics, Refractive Is Most Exposed To Recession Risks

Business Strategy and Outlook

As a global leader in eyecare, Alcon provides products and equipment for various vision conditions such as refractive errors, cataracts, and advanced vitreoretinal problems. The firm is the second-biggest player in contact lenses and has a robust portfolio in liquid eyecare solutions for allergies and dry eye. Despite a strong market position, Alcon remains in turnaround mode following years of underinvestment as a Novartis subsidiary. The company has committed significant capital to the turnaround program with greater sales and marketing spending, and capital expenditures that are expected to total over $1.5 billion over the next three years. Looking past expected lumpiness of near-term results, management’s turnaround efforts will largely pay off and there is a positive view of the outlook on the core business. 

Alcon’s strategy centers on growth in premium product lines, implementing cost-saving initiatives to drive margin expansion, and capitalizing on secular long-term growth in global eyecare. Specifically, the firm has identified three main areas of growth for the business: advanced intraocular lenses (PanOptix, Vivity), premium daily contact lenses (Total1, Precision1), and liquid eyecare (Systane, Pataday). Within each of these markets, Alcon has a premium product that should allow for near-term above-market growth. Alcon’s leading position in phacoemulsification for cataract surgery, with a 50% market share, helps pull in demand for standard intraocular lenses, or IOL, from bundling, and Alcon now holds a greater-than-50% share in IOLs, as well. The firm recently launched a value-priced phaco system that should generate share gains in emerging markets, which have been slower to adapt phaco because of higher up-front costs. Alcon’s standard IOL business is expected to grow about in line with market, and the introduction of PanOptix to the U.S. market should enable above-market growth for the advanced lens portfolio. PanOptix is the first trifocal in the U.S., and this lens has benefited from its first-mover advantage, with the product achieving 75% share of advanced IOL sales in the U.S. and Japan.

Financial Strength

Alcon’s financial strength is satisfactory. The firm took on $3.5 billion of debt in early 2019 related to the spin-off from Novartis, and the company ended 2021 with a moderate degree of leverage (debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.6). Interest coverage is a moderate concern to us in the near term given that interest expenses are projected to exceed operating income in 2021. This is partly due to the refinancing of $2 billion of debt in 2019, which resulted in higher interest expense. Still, this also lengthened the maturity of the debt, giving Alcon improved longer-term financial stability. Given current assumptions about operating income growth over the coming years, interest coverage is not anticipated to be a long-term concern, and the coverage ratio is expected to surpass 10 times by the back half of the 10-year forecast period. In early 2019, about a month before Alcon once again became a public firm, the company acquired fluid-based intraocular lens maker Powervision for $285 million. The firm is likely to make a few similarly sized tuck-in acquisitions over the next few years, in the range of $50 million to $500 million, such as the $475 million acquisition of Ivantis in November 2021. With Alcon’s total market cap at around $35 billion, this acquisition range is meaningful but not necessarily material to the overall business, and the company has enough free cash flow to pursue acquisitions of this size. Positive free cash flow to the firm is projected throughout the 10-year explicit forecast period, indicating the firm has ample financial flexibility.

Bulls Say’s

  • Alcon stands to benefit from several secular trends in eyecare: an increasing prevalence of myopia, demand for better eyecare from a growing middle-class in emerging markets, and growth driven by an aging population. 
  • As a stand-alone public firm, Alcon will have the necessary financial flexibility to make investments for the longer term, and patient investors could be well rewarded. 
  • Alcon’s product pipeline (fluid-based intraocular lenses, accommodating contact lenses, Systane line expansion) will help the firm maintain and expand its position as the global leader in eyecare.

Company Profile 

Alcon, headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, is the global eyecare leader with a diverse portfolio in ophthalmology including contact lenses, eye drops, surgical equipment, and related surgical products. Novartis purchased Alcon from Nestle in 2010 and, following nine years as a Novartis subsidiary, the company was spun-off as a public company in April 2019. The company reports five distinct segments: implantables (16% of revenue), consumables (31%), equipment (9%), contact lenses (27%), and ocular health (17%). The company is geographically diversified, with only about 40% of revenue from the U.S. market, and the firm has a strong presence in the European Union and Japan.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Rocket’s Earnings Fall in Q1 as Higher Rates Bite Into Refinance Volumes; Fair Value Estimate to $14

price of btc is going to breakout

Business Strategy and Outlook

While Rocket Companies offers a variety of products and services, the firm is best known for its Rocket Mortgage segment, which provides Rocket with most of its revenue. The mortgage industry is fractured and highly competitive, but Rocket has distinguished itself by operating as an entirely digitally lender, originating and servicing its mortgages through its mobile app and website. Rocket has made substantial investments in automating the mortgage process and has been an industry leader in increasing loan processing speed and removing pain points for consumers. These investments along with its control over the appraisal and titling process, through its ownership of Amrock, have allowed the firm to offer an industry-leading mortgage experience to borrowers while also enjoying a cost structure advantage over its competitors. 

As a digital lender Rocket is able to scale its capacity for mortgage volume up or down quickly since each loan requires less manual attention. This flexibility will be needed as rising mortgage rates push mortgage origination volume well below their 2020 and 2021 highs. Rocket is particularly exposed to this trend as it is strongest in refinance activity and price sensitive first-time homebuyers. As origination activity is curtailed by higher interest rates, Rocket’s revenue and earnings is anticipated to fall from 2021, particularly as pricing in the mortgage secondary market has cooled down. That said, through the full cycle Rocket is expected to gain market share from other lenders. Consumers have become more comfortable with conducting their finances digitally during the pandemic, and digital lenders, like Rocket, have benefited from this tailwind. Rocket has had strong success in expanding its partner network. New partnerships with firms like Mint and Morgan Stanley, in which these firms offer Rocket’s mortgages to their customers, will help drive growth. While Rocket’s revenue and earnings will likely remain volatile, a symptom of the cyclical nature of the mortgage industry, the company’s strong competitive position and trends in consumer behavior will provide it with long-term secular growth.

Financial Strength

Rocket operates in a highly cyclical industry, as a result its revenue and earnings have the potential to drop sharply due to economic factors completely out of its control. While Rocket does resell the mortgages it makes within days of origination, the sheer volume of mortgages that Rocket creates means that the company has billions in mortgage debt on its balance sheet at any given point in time. At the end of December, Rocket had more than $19 billion in mortgages, which were financed by equity and less than $13 billion in funding facilities. The combination of volatile revenue and substantial funding needs means that Rocket’s financial strength is an important factor to watch, particularly during slower markets. Despite this, there are no significant concerns about Rocket’s financial health at this time. The company has a strong balance sheet and has been able to maintain constant profitability, even during slow periods for mortgage origination. Rocket had over $2.1 billion in cash at the end of December 2021 and only $6 billion in debt not directly tied to its mortgage holdings. With net debt of roughly 1.5 times the projected 2023 EBITDA, Rocket should have more than enough financial resources to see it through a slow mortgage market, should one develop.

Bulls Say’s

  • Rocket has been steadily gaining market share in both its direct-to-consumer and partner network mortgage origination channels. 
  • Rocket’s digital origination model gives it a cost advantage over its peers and allows it to respond rapidly to market developments. 
  • Rocket has been able to sign major partnerships to expand its partner network. Deals with Morgan Stanley and Intuit’s Mint represent major wins for the company

Company Profile 

Rocket Companies is a financial services company that was originally founded as Rock Financial in 1985 and is currently based in Detroit. Rocket Companies offers a wide array of services and products but is best known for its Rocket Mortgage business. The company’s mortgage lending operations are split between its direct-to-consumer lending, which sees borrowers accessing the company’s lending arm directly through either its mobile app or website, and its partner network where mortgage brokers and other firms use Rocket’s origination process to offer loans to their customers. The company has rapidly gained market share in recent years and is now the largest mortgage originator in the U.S. as well as the servicer for more than 2 million loans.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Materials Cost Headwinds Now A Major Cost Problem For Toyota But Balance Sheet Remains Strong

Business Strategy and Outlook

Toyota’s vision includes making compact cars a priority for emerging markets with attractive design but lower costs, having designers and engineers as equal partners, and scale from the Toyota New Global Architecture, which develops many vehicles using common parts, something critical for Toyota to keep pace with the likes of Volkswagen. A big change on the parts side is that the company uses more parts on a global standard as opposed to Toyota-specific standards. The long-term goal is for vehicles that share a platform to have 70%-80% common parts. Giving local designers more control is finally letting Toyota make more exciting vehicles. Toyota is thinking about the future with its Monet autonomous vehicle services joint venture with SoftBank and other Japanese automakers, such as Honda, its battery joint venture with Panasonic, and Woven City, a laboratory city of the future in Japan run on hydrogen fuel cells. Toyota is also working on solid state batteries and has an JPY 8 trillion electrified vehicle plan for 2022-30.

 More plants outside Japan will also help Toyota deal with foreign exchange risk, which can dramatically affect earnings. In calendar 2021, about 80% of Toyota’s light vehicle sales were outside Japan, but only 61% of production was based outside Japan. The company has long pledged to produce at least 3 million vehicles a year in Japan, but this promise becomes very hard to keep when the yen is strong. Every JPY 1 change in the U.S. dollar affects Toyota’s operating income by an estimated JPY 40 billion, more than twice the impact at Honda. Management has said that the Japanese operations break even at JPY 85/$1, and below JPY 80/$1 is where management has to reconsider its Japanese production levels, especially for compact cars. Still, in May 2020, President Akio Toyoda said 3 million units and Japan employment will be maintained no matter how bad the economic situation is because people make things society needs.

Financial Strength

Toyota is in excellent financial shape, and its balance sheet is one of the strongest in the auto sector. The company has a small debt load and substantial cash holdings. Flexibility is important because it gives the company plenty of room to acquire more capital in the debt markets, if needed. As of the end of fiscal 2022, Toyota’s consolidated cash and cash equivalent balance was JPY about 6.1 trillion. Excluding the captive finance company, the firm held about JPY 4.3 trillion in cash at the end of fiscal 2022, more than offsetting JPY 2.6 trillion of debt. This huge net cash position gives Toyota the capability to invest in many experimental efforts around hydrogen, EVs, and autonomous vehicles without drastically hurting financial health. As of year-end fiscal 2021, the consolidated company had access to about JPY 8.3 trillion of unused long-term and short-term credit lines. Debt/EBITDA excluding the financing arm has fallen to 1.3 after peaking at 2.8 times in fiscal 2009. For fiscal 2022, excluding the financing arm Toyota generated free cash flow equal to about 6.7% of revenue. Toyota does not seem to have any problems meeting debt maturities or raising more capital in a recession should it need the funds. In April 2020, it raised JPY 1.25 trillion in short-term debt to combat COVID-19 damage. 

Bulls Say’s

  • Its popular vehicles usually allow Toyota to use fewer incentives than the Detroit Three, boosting the firm’s profits and improving the resale value of vehicles. 
  • Toyota’s manufacturing process is the gold standard of the auto industry. 
  • Significantly lower pension and retiree healthcare costs give Toyota a cost advantage over the Detroit Three, although this advantage is less than it used to be.

Company Profile 

Founded in 1937, Toyota is one of the world’s largest automakers with 10.38 million units sold at retail in fiscal 2022 across its light vehicle brands. Brands include Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu, and truck maker Hino; market share in Japan is about 52%, while U.S. share is over 15%. The firm also owns large stake in Denso, a parts supplier, at least 16% of Subaru (with a deal to raise that to 20%), and holds investments in many other firms, including shares of Uber Technologies and about 5% in each of Mazda and Suzuki. Fiscal 2022 sales excluding financial services were JPY 29.1 trillion. Toyota also has a financing arm and manufactures homes and boats..

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

While Competition is Increasing, we Believe Charter Remains Well-Positioned

Business Strategy & Outlook

The Charter’s aggressive effort to drive customer penetration by limiting price increases, improving customer service, and expanding its offerings to appeal to a variety of preferences. The firm will successfully navigate growing competition from the phone companies, though growth will likely slow in the coming years. Charter’s aggression extends to its capital structure, where heavy share repurchases have bolstered shareholder returns but have also kept debt leverage high, which will likely add volatility to the share price and could limit financial flexibility.

Charter’s cable networks have provided a significant competitive advantage versus its primary competitors–phone companies like AT&T–as high-quality internet access has become a staple utility. The firm now claims about 70% of the internet access market across the territories it serves, up about 9 percentage points over the past five years and still marching higher. Charter has been able to upgrade its network to meet consumer demand for faster speeds at modest incremental cost while the phone companies have largely ignored their networks across big chunks of the country. Phone companies, notably AT&T, are starting to increase fiber network investment, which will hit Charter at the margin–the firm has faced less fiber competition than its major cable peers. However, the Charter will remain a strong competitor even when faced with improved rival networks.

Wireless technology has emerged as a potential new competitor to fixed-line internet access. The skeptical of wireless’ ability to meet network capacity on a wide scale for the foreseeable future. Also, the dense fixed-line networks like Charter’s will play an increasingly important role in powering wireless networks in the future. Charter also faces declining demand for traditional television services, but here again one cannot believe investors should be concerned. The amount of profit the firm earns from television service has been declining for several years. Internet access, now the bedrock of Charter’s customer relationships, delivers the vast majority of cash flow today.

Financial Strengths

Charter operates under a fairly heavy debt load, with net leverage standing at 4.6 times EBITDA, by our calculation, a level that has held steady in recent quarters. Charter’s management team has run with a net leverage target of 4.0-4.5 times EBITDA over the past several years, typical of firms under the influence of Liberty and John Malone. By the firm’s calculation, net leverage was 4.4 times EBITDA at the end of 2021. This debt level is higher than its peer Comcast, which has typically targeted net leverage of around 2.0-2.5 times EBITDA. On the other hand, Charter’s leverage is more modest than Altice USA’s at roughly 5.5 times EBITDA.

Charter typically directs free cash flow and the proceeds from incremental borrowing to fund share repurchases as a means of keeping leverage within its target range as EBITDA grows. The firm believes that it could reduce leverage quickly if its borrowing costs or business outlook change materially in the future. The firm generated free cash flow of about $8.7 billion in 2021 and spent $17.7 billion repurchasing shares and partnership units held by Advance/Newhouse. As a result, net debt increased to $91 billion from $82 billion at the start of the year. Importantly, free cash flow will face headwinds in the coming years as Charter begins paying federal taxes, which are expected to be meaningful starting in 2022. Charter has actively managed its debt load in recent years, trimming interest rates and pushing out maturities. About $7.5 billion of debt comes due through 2024 and its weighted average maturity stands at about 14 years at an average cost of 4.5%.

Bulls Say

  • Like its cable peers, Charter’s networks provide a platform to easily meet customers’ growing bandwidth demands, which should drive market share gains and strong recurring cash flow.
  • As the second-largest U.S. cable company, Charter has the scale to efficiently adapt to changes hitting the telecom industry. The firm will be a force in the wireless industry eventually.
  • Holding prices down to drive market share gains will pay huge dividends down the road, pushing costs lower and cementing Charter’s competitive position.

Company Description

Charter is the product of the 2016 merger of three cable companies, each with a decades-long history in the business: Legacy Charter, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks. The firm now holds networks capable of providing television, internet access, and phone services to roughly 54 million U.S. homes and businesses, around 40% of the country. Across this footprint, Charter serves 29 million residential and 2 million commercial customer accounts under the Spectrum brand, making it the second-largest U.S. cable company behind Comcast. The firm also owns, in whole or in part, sports and news networks, including Spectrum SportsNet (long-term local rights to Los Angeles Lakers games), SportsNet LA (Los Angeles Dodgers), SportsNet New York (New York Mets), and Spectrum News NY1.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

Poshmark Poised for Outsize Growth as Resale Economics and Acceptance Drive Traction

Business Strategy & Outlook

Poshmark is among the largest apparel resale platforms on the market, boasting an interactive marketplace that benefits from a triumvirate of secular tailwinds: social commerce, an ongoing mix shift toward online retail sales, and the stratospheric growth of the apparel resale market. The firm’s strategy coalesces around four key priorities: product innovation, category expansion, international growth, and buyer acquisition. As per neutral view of management’s road map, with the research leaving us unconvinced that Poshmark’s international thrusts are poised to generate excess returns for investors, and surmise that purportedly adjacent categories like consumer electronics, art, or pets may not be concordant with the firm’s apparel core competency.

As a slew of firms have entered the resale space, competition has arisen around exclusive access to customers, inventory assortment, and distribution channels, with long-term equilibrium remaining uncertain. Consolidation looks inevitable, particularly as the scope of those companies’ offerings see increasing overlap, commensurate with category, price point, and geographic expansion. Poshmark’s right to win hinges on its ability to convincingly answer the “why Poshmark?” query, attracting platform participants with some combination of competitive seller services, frictionless listing, quick inventory turnover, attractive fees, broad assortment, and authentication services.

The until cross-listing is viable, each international market must be approached as greenfield development, with local competitors boasting a home field advantage at the outset. Winning any of a handful of culturally similar markets (Canada, Australia, the U.K., Germany, France) would meaningfully expand the long-term addressable market, but it remain dubious of the firm’s entry into India, which has proven notoriously difficult to monetize. Finally, the management to target efforts at ameliorating the shipping pain point, with more diversified last-mile providers and a thrust toward higher-priced products likely helping to defray costs that currently constitute about a quarter of average order values, weighing on GMV growth.

Financial Strengths

The Poshmark’s financial strength as sound. The firm carries no long-term debt, has $597 million in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of the first quarter of 2022, and figures to be free cash flow positive in each of the next three years, by the calculations. The management has adequate wiggle room to pursue moat-bolstering investments, while narrowing operating losses should provide a route to enduring operating profitability by 2026.

Following its IPO, the firm’s capital structure has simplified meaningfully, retiring $50 million in convertible notes issued during the third quarter of 2020 that carried a panoply of derivative clauses. Shareholder dilution hereafter should be limited to those shares issued in the normal course of business. The Poshmark’s waterfall of investment priorities as consistent with other high growth firms: pursuing internal investments and strategic mergers and acquisitions. One cannot anticipate pressure building for shareholder returns through repurchases or cash dividends until the firm achieves operating profitability, with the model suggesting the inception of a modest repurchase program in 2026, though this timeline could be delayed by a strategic acquisition or more circuitous route to positive earnings. As Poshmark emerges from its high-growth phase, and encourage management to consider optimizing the firm’s capital structure (adding debt) and initiating a cash dividend, but this remains a long-dated concern that don’t contemplate a dividend until 2030.

Bulls Say

  • Five straight quarters of operating profitability during 2020 and 2021 (ending in the third quarter of 2021) suggest a strong underlying business model once customer acquisition costs normalize.
  • Early traction in Australia and Canada could augur well for long-term success in those and other culturally similar markets.
  • Adding APIs and analytics tools for wholesalers and liquidators could add another platform use case, while generating higher units per transaction, average order values, and fulfillment cost leverage.

Company Description

Poshmark is one of the largest players in a quickly growing e-commerce resale space, connecting more than 30 million active users on a platform that sells men’s and women’s apparel, accessories, shoes, and more recently consumer electronics and pet products. The marketplace operates in four countries–the U.S., Canada, Australia, and India–with a capital-light, peer-to-peer model that dovetails nicely with prevailing trends toward social commerce, apparel resale, and an ongoing pivot toward the e-commerce channel. With $1.8 billion in 2021 gross merchandise volume, or GMV, the estimate that the firm captured about 13%-14% of the domestic online resale market, with rolling lockdowns and tangled supply chains providing a meaningful impetus for channel trial during 2020 and 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Icon boasts impressive margins compared with similar-size peers

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is held Icon possesses all the necessary elements to win share in the late-stage contract research organization market: global capabilities, full-service offerings, extensive regulatory and clinical expertise, investment in innovation and technology, and operational excellence. Icon is one of a handful of CROs with the global infrastructure to carry out late-stage, multinational trials and hone international regulatory expertise. 

Icon competes in one of the most lucrative areas of the CRO market: long, complex trials that require hundreds if not thousands of patients and thus have ample room for missteps. Late-stage trials consume a significant portion of drug patent lives, making reduction in clinical trial time a priority for CROs and their customers. Icon has done well in focusing on driving trial efficiencies, with consulting services and technology for patient identification and clinical trial management. As a result, it is anticipated that the firm will profit from near-term increases in outsourcing, but it is closely watched nascent trends in drug development, including the potential of real-world evidence and the use of data and analytics to reduce a drug’s time to market. 

The firm’s historically conservative approach to capital allocation and investment has kept revenue growth relatively moderate in the past few years–in the midsingle digits, save for a boost in 2012 through 2014 due to capacity expansion after a couple of lucrative deals with Big Pharma companies. In July 2021, Icon completed the $12 billion purchase of competitor PRA Health Sciences. While it is alleged an increase in returns and cost-saving synergies realized within four years, the returns will nevertheless be partially diluted by goodwill due to the 30% premium that Icon paid. Operationally, Icon boasts impressive margins compared with similar-size peers. Its disciplined acquisition strategy has kept returns above its cost of capital and strengthened its core competencies, making it the closest pure play in the late-stage CRO industry. It is likely the company will be able to maintain operational excellence over time.

Financial Strength

Icon has historically maintained a conservative balance sheet. It ended 2021 with over $750 million in cash and cash equivalents. Icon completed its acquisition of PRA Health Sciences in July 2021 for $12 billion. It financed the deal with 48% cash and 52% stock. Icon raised $6 billion of debt to finance the PRA Health deal. It was broken into two instruments: $5.5 billion of floating term loan B notes over a seven-year period and $500 million in a fixed high-yield bond over a five-year period. Even though Icon took on significant leverage to fund this acquisition, there aren’t any major liquidity concerns as the company has demonstrated its operational discipline. Both Icon and PRA have strong records of positive free cash flows and maintain healthy balance sheets

Bulls Say’s

  • Icon is highly exposed to the late-stage CRO industry, which due to its complexity is conducive to long-term competitive advantages. 
  • The company’s operational discipline should support strong earnings growth and high returns as Icon expands. 
  • As an Irish company, Icon benefits from a lower tax rate than many of its peers based in the United States.

Company Profile 

Icon is a global late-stage contract research organization that provides drug development and clinical trial services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device firms. While the vast majority of its revenue comes from clinical research, Icon also offers ancillary services such as laboratory and imaging capabilities. The company is headquartered in Ireland. 

(Source: MorningStar)

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