Business Strategy and Outlook

Mastercard has multiple characteristics that should draw investors’ attention. First, despite the evolution in the payment space, and view Mastercard’s position in the current global electronic payment infrastructure as essentially unassailable. Second, Mastercard benefits from the ongoing shift toward electronic payments, which provides plenty of opportunities to utilize its wide moat to create value over the long term. 

Mastercard is not without issues in the near term. Cross-border transactions, which are particularly lucrative for the networks, came under heavy pressure due to the fallout from the pandemic and a reduction in global travel. From a longer-term point of view, it is likely that smaller and more regional networks are building out additional capacity for cross-border transactions, which could eat into growth a bit in the coming years, but we haven’t seen a material effect yet. While this situation bears watching, Visa and Mastercard’s global networks remain unparalleled, and this will remain the case for many years to come.

 A downturn in the economy would slow overall growth, as Mastercard’s revenue is sensitive to the volume and dollar amount of consumer transactions. The company has already seen growth decline significantly due to the pandemic.

Morningstar analysts  increased the fair value estimate to $352 per share from $337 due to time value since the last update and some adjustments to assumptions. The fair value estimate equates to 33.6 times projected 2022 earnings, adjusted for one-time expenses.

Financial Strength 

Mastercard’s balance sheet is in solid shape. The company added a small amount of debt to its balance sheet in 2014 and in the years since has steadily increased debt. Still, debt/EBITDA at the end of 2020 was a very reasonable 1.5 times, and Mastercard’s leverage is still a bit below Visa’s. The company has shown a relatively limited appetite for M&A, and the business model requires very little balance sheet investment, so management has considerable flexibility. On the other hand, an overly conservative balance sheet structure could impede long-term shareholder returns.

Bulls Say 

• Mastercard has been outperforming Visa in terms of growth. Its smaller size and some leveling in market share between the two could maintain this trend. 
• There is still plenty of runaway for growth in electronic payments. Electronic payments only surpassed cash payments on a global basis a couple of years ago. 
• Management is appropriately focused on long-term growth opportunities and not near-term margins.

Company Profile

Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed $4.8 trillion in purchase transactions during 2020. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.