Categories
Funds Funds

CFS Index Australian Bond: Simple and reasonably priced choice for diversified Australian bond exposure

Approach

FSI matches the risk factors of the benchmark, including duration, sector exposures, and credit quality by employing a full replication method. The strategy can hold securities that have been or are expected to be included in the index, and it can exclude those likely to drop in or out. On average, the cash holding would be in the vicinity of 0.5% because of the impact of daily flows and liquidity needs. The larger asset base gives the firm the benefit of scale and helps to keep a lid on overall transaction costs. FSI uses the BlackRock Aladdin portfolio management tool to manage the index-tracking process end to end, including trading and risk assessment and monitoring.

Portfolio

CFS Index Australian Bond replicates the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Year Index fully. As of 30 September 2021, the fund is composed mainly of Treasury (56.6%) and government-related (semigovernment and supranational) debt (36.4%). Corporate credit constitutes most of the remaining portion of the fund. A major portion of the credits in the index are issued by banks, followed by diversified financials and real estate trusts. . The concentrated credit exposure to banks and financials means Australian property fundamentals play a role in the portfolio’s performance in the long run.

People

FSI has a long history of managing passive strategies. FSI’s institutional passive funds under management is substantial. As of August 2021, FSI had around $5.1 billion in active funds and $12.2 billion in passive strategies. The Australian fixed-income team headed by Stephen Cooper within FSI is responsible for the CFS Index Australia Bond Fund. Cooper is an industry veteran. He is supported by four portfolio managers in the team, with Darja Milosevic and Alex Nikolovski dedicated to passive vehicles.

Performance 

As a core bond holding, CFS Index Australia Bond has served investors well over time by bringing broader portfolio volatility down and protecting capital when equity market slides. On the other hand, it has lagged when yields rose and when credit markets have been strong. This was evident in 2013 when the fund’s 1.7% gain trailed over half of its category peers or when yields rose toward the second half of 2020 through the end of the first quarter of 2021 (November 2020–March 2021). Encouragingly, the fund had done well when equity markets were weak. Its relatively long duration and high-quality exposure have been a boon during such occasions. 

CFS Performance.png

About the Fund

CFS Wholesale Indexed Australian Bond Fund is a unit trust incorporated in Australia. The objective of the Fund is to closely track the UBS Warburg Australian Composite Bond Index, All Maturities. The Fund invests in securities issued or guaranteed by governments, statutory authorities, banks, and corporations of a high credit standing, with some cash for liquidity.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

USA Market Outlook – 20 December 2021

USA-Market-Outlook-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Deere’s Prospects for Fiscal 2022 Look Bright to Us, Given Strong End Market Demand

Business Strategy and Outlook

Deere’s strong brand is underpinned by its high-quality, extremely durable, and efficient products. Customers in developed markets also value Deere’s ability to reduce the total cost of ownership. The company’s strategy focuses on delivering a comprehensive solution for farmers. Deere’s innovative products target each phase of the farming process, which includes field preparation, planting and seeding, applying chemicals, and harvesting. The company also embeds technology in its products, from guidance systems to seed placement and spacing and customized spraying applications. Deere is committed to expanding customer offerings and providing value-added services. Additionally, we believe the management team will look to reduce the company’s cost structure as some markets have matured, providing an opportunity to rethink its footprint and create a leaner organization.

Financial Strength 

Deere maintains a sound balance sheet. On the industrial side, the net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio was relatively low at the end of fiscal 2021, coming in at 0.4. Total outstanding debt, including both short- and long-term debt, was $10.4 billion. Deere’s strong balance sheet gives management the financial flexibility to run a balanced capital allocation strategy going forward that mostly favors organic growth and also returns cash to shareholders. The company’s cash position as of fiscal year-end 2021 stood at $7.2 billion on its industrial balance sheet. We also find comfort in Deere’s ability to tap into available lines of credit to meet any short-term needs. Deere has access to $5.7 billion in credit facilities.

Additionally, management is determined to rationalize its footprint by reducing the number of facilities in mature markets. If successful, this will put Deere on much better footing from a cost perspective, further supporting its ability to return cash to shareholders. The captive finance arm holds considerably more debt than the industrial business, but this is reasonable, given its status as a lender to both customers and dealers. Total debt stood at $38 billion in fiscal 2021, along with $38 billion in finance receivables and $829 million in cash. In our view, Deere enjoys a strong financial position supported by a clean balance sheet and strong free cash flow prospects.

Bulls Say’s

  • Higher crop prices encourage farmers to grow more crops and will lead to more farming equipment purchases, substantially boosting Deere’s revenue growth. 
  • Deere will benefit from strong replacement demand, as uncertainty around trade, weather, and agriculture commodity demand has eased, encouraging farmers to refresh their machine fleet. 
  • Increased infrastructure spending in the U.S. and emerging markets will lead to more construction equipment purchases, benefiting Deere.

Company Profile 

Deere is the world’s leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment, producing some of the most recognizable machines in the heavy machinery industry. The company is divided into four reportable segments: production and precision agriculture, small agriculture and turf, construction and forestry, and John Deere Capital. Its products are available through a robust dealer network, which includes over 1,900 dealer locations in North America and approximately 3,700 locations globally. John Deere Capital provides retail financing for machinery to its customers, in addition to wholesale financing for dealers, which increases the likelihood of Deere product sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

AUB Group Ltd. visions to boost EPS growth with acquisition strategies

Business Strategy and Outlook

AUB operates the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. AUB brokers derive revenue from commissions paid by insurers, based on gross written premiums. AUB owns or has equity stakes in each broking business within the network. Post the exit of rehabilitation services in 2021, around 85% of group EBITA is delivered by the broker network, while the underwriting agencies generate about 15%.

A key value proposition over smaller brokers is AUB’s ability to negotiate more favourable policy wording and pricing. Scale also provides the capacity to spend more on technology, which helps facilitate greater analytical and processing capabilities, and marketing to help attract and retain customers. Other services such as claims support and premium funding support the value proposition.

AUB’s underwriting agencies distribute insurance products but take no underwriting risk. Underwriting agencies act on behalf of insurers to design, develop, and provide specialised insurance products and services.

The earnings outlook is positive. It is expected further insurance price rises over the medium term as insurers seek to cover claims inflation and weak investment income. This follows a weak pricing environment due to excess global reinsurance capacity, soft economic conditions, and elevated competition.

Financial Strength

AUB is in sound financial health. It has strong cash flow generation with a high conversion of earnings to operating cash flow and a relatively high dividend pay-out ratio. Gearing as reported by the company (corporate, subsidiary and look through share of associate debt/debt plus equity) ratio is reasonable, at 28.5% and below the firm’s maximum 45% ratio. Excluding customer cash for premium held by AUB but payable to insurers, AUB holds AUD 90 million in cash, which when included lowers gearing further. The current debt load looks manageable, with EBITDA interest cover of over 16 times and the nature of its businesses being relatively low risk. It is assumed AUB will use operating cash flows to fund increased positions in existing broker partners, with headroom to fund small acquisitions from cash on hand.

Bulls Say’s

  • AUB’s scale and expertise in insurance products and services leave it well placed to benefit from higher insurance pricing. 
  • BizCover and the Kelly+Partners partnership see AUB placed to take market share in the smaller end of the SME market. 
  • The firm’s acquisition strategy, both new investments and increased equity stakes, likely boosts EPS growth.

Company Profile 

AUB Group is the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. It has an ownership in 55 brokerage businesses, which collectively write over AUD 3 billion in premiums. It also owns equity stakes in 27 underwriting agencies. AUB derives revenue from commissions (from insurers, ultimately paid for by AUB’s customers) based on gross written premium, or GWP, from agencies it owns, and a share of profits from associates and joint ventures. GWP is split between personal (6%), small to medium enterprises (68%), and corporates (26%).

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

Japan Market Outlook – 20 December 2021

Japan-Market-Outlook-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Analyst videos Brokers Call Brokers call Expert Insights Fund Manager Interviews Philosophy Stock Talks Technical Picks VidCons Videos

Brokers Call – 20 December 2021

Confident beautiful businesswoman in hardhat explaining blueprint to forewoman at construction site

Brokers-Call-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Daily Report

Morning Report Global Markets Update – 20 December 2021

Morning-Report-Global-Markets-Update-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

Shanghai Market Outlook – 20 December 2021

Shanghai-Market-Outlook-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Daily Report Financial Markets

European Market Outlook – 20 December 2021

European-Market-Outlook-20-December-2021Download

Categories
Technology Stocks

REA Group reports strong FY21 earnings driven by growth in Australia segment

Investment Thesis:

  • Clear #1 market position in online property classifieds, with consumers spending over more time on realestate.com.au app than the number two website. 
  • Growth opportunities via expansion into Asia and North America. 
  • Recent strategic partnerships with National Australia Bank (property finance) could potentially be positive in the long term. 
  • Upside in key markets – particular in areas where REA is under-penetrated and could potentially win market share from competitors. 
  • New product developments to increase customer experience. 
  • Regular price increases help offset listing pressure.

Key Risks:

  • Competitive pressures lead to a further de-rating of the PE-multiple. 
  • Volume (listings) outlook remains subdued in the near term. 
  • Execution risk with Asia/North America strategy. 
  • Failing to get an adequate return on the recent acquisition of iProperty. 
  • Value/EPS destructive acquisitions. 
  • Decline in Australian property market. 
  • Given REA trades on a very high PE-multiple, underperforming to market estimates can exacerbate a share price de-rating. 
  • Recent tightening of lending practices by banks would affect Financial services business.

Key highlights:

  • REA reported strong FY21 results, with core operations revenue of $928m, up +13%, or excluding acquisitions, up +11%, on strong performance in its Australia segment.
  • EBITDA (incl. associates) was up +19% to $565m, on strong cost management with core operating cost growth (excluding acquisitions) contained to 3% over the pcp.
  • Margin of 60% was flat relative to the pcp. Net profit of $318m was up +18% equating to EPS of 247 cents, up +21%.
  • The Board declared a final dividend of 72cps fully franked which brings the full year dividend to 131cps, up +19%. 
  • Following several acquisitions, REA retained a strong balance sheet, with debt of $414m and a cash balance of $169m at year end.
  • REA refinanced syndicated debt facilities and funded the Mortgage Choice acquisition via a bridge facility with NAB for $520m. The bridge facility matures in July 2022, with management stating they expect to replace this with a new syndicated facility in 1Q22
  • Australia segment highlights:
    • Residential: revenue increased by +18%, on higher national listings (up +15% over the pcp, with Melbourne, up +11% and Sydney, up +25%), improved depth and Premiere penetration, increased subscription revenues and continued growth in add-on products.
    • Commercial and Developer: revenue was up +5% with Developer benefiting from a +17% increase in new project commencements, driven in part by Government stimulus, an increase in project profile duration and higher subscriptions, partially offset by lower Commercial revenues as the impact of Covid dampened listing volumes.
    • Media, Data & Other: revenues were broadly flat over the pcp, as growth in Data and Media revenues were offset by lower revenues in Other.
    • Financial Services: revenue was up +9% driven by higher settlements, increased broker recruitment and improved productivity, which was offset by lower partnership revenue as the current NAB agreement performance payments reached maturity in September 2020.

Company Description: 

REA Group (REA) provides online property listings, web management, financial services and data analytics to the real estate industry via advertising services. For consumers, REA offers the largest online real estate search engine in Australia. The Company also has operations and growing presence in Asia and other parts of the world.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.