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Global stocks Shares

Morgan Stanley: Increasing Capital Allocation to Exemplary and FVE to $85

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James Gorman and Morgan Stanley’s management team have deftly positioned the firm to key financial sector trends through acquisitions. They inked a transformative deal with the acquisition of Citigroup’s Smith Barney that increased Morgan Stanley’s proportion of stable, balance-sheet-light earnings after the enactment of higher regulatory capital requirements. 

Recent acquisitions of E-Trade and Eaton Vance further extend Morgan Stanley’s capabilities and deepen its competitive advantages. E-Trade is a technology firm that offers a leading self-directed brokerage, digital bank, and workplace services business. Eaton Vance is an asset manager that will benefit from Morgan Stanley’s international relationships, while Morgan Stanley’s investment management business can leverage Eaton Vance’s financial intermediary distribution channel and capabilities in environment, social, and governance investing and mass customization of financial products.

Morgan Stanley’s thoughtful acquisitions provide it the scale and scope to effectively compete with the largest financial sector players that are increasingly moving beyond their traditional industry silos. Given synergies and exposure to industry tailwinds, we expect Morgan Stanley’s returns on tangible common equity will increase over time and support the company’s valuation.

Company’s Future outlook

It is estimated that Morgan Stanley’s acquisitions and strategy have led to the increase in its valuation, management’s path to increasing the firm’s valuation to over 2 times tangible book value from 0.5 times in just a decade.” Morgan Stanley plans upgrading capital allocation rating to Exemplary from Standard and increasing fair value estimate to $85 from $70.

Company Profile

Morgan Stanley is a global investment bank whose history, through its legacy firms, can be traced back to 1924. The company has institutional securities, wealth management, and investment management segments. The company had about $4 trillion of client assets as well as nearly 70,000 employees at the end of 2020. Approximately 40% of the company’s net revenue is from its institutional securities business, with the remainder coming from wealth and investment management. The company derives about 30% of its total revenue outside the Americas.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

CWY’s FY22 Quantitative earnings guidance are expected to have negative monthly impact

Investment Thesis 

  • CWY trades at fair value based on our infused valuation.
  • Earnings are fairly defensive (as the Company has long term rubbish collection contracts with local government).
  • The solids segment is growing at a slightly higher-than-average GDP rate, with the potential to benefit as CWY’s sales team concentrates more on price increases.
  • Liquids and Industrial Services are expected to recover and benefit from high oil prices.
  • A strong balance sheet that allows for bolt-on acquisitions or capital management initiatives.
  • High entry barriers – difficult to replicate assets & solid margin business

Key Risks

  • Its Solids segment performed worse than expected.
  • There will be no or only minor price increases.
  • Liquids and Industrial Services performed poorly.
  • Oil prices are recovering slowly or not at all.
  • China’s National Sword policy imposes additional cost surcharges.
  • Management fails to meet their key segment margin targets.
  • While earnings are largely defensive, there is some exposure to cyclical economic activity, which may be a drag on earnings.

FY21 Result Highlights

  • Net revenue increased by 7.5% to $1,476.3 million; EBITDA increased by 4.4% to $405.3 million; and EBIT increased by $0.3 million to $213.0 million. “FY22 D&A is expected to be higher reflecting full year contributions from acquisitions and municipal contracts that partially contributed in FY21, new municipal contracts that start in FY22 (Logan, Hornsby), the start of operations at the rebuilt Perth MRF, and higher landfill depreciation,” management stated.
  • The reported EBITDA of $48.0m was +4.6% higher. EBITDA margin was 110 basis points higher than in FY20, owing to the successful implementation of the strategy of exiting low-value workstreams. EBIT increased by $1.2 million to $22.6 million, and the EBIT margin increased by 60 basis points to 7.4 percent.
  • EBITDA increased by 3.5 percent to $110.0 million, while margins increased by 80 basis points to 21.5 percent. EBIT increased by 5.1% to $67.6 million, and EBIT margins increased by 70 basis points to 13.2 percent.
  • Covid-19 lockdowns on lower East coast oil collection volumes had an impact on hydrocarbons. Covid-19-related activity at aged care facilities, hotel quarantine, and mass testing and vaccination centres resulted in higher earnings for Health Services.
  • Despite lower volumes from visitor states, hospitality (grease trap), cruise ships, and automobile industries as a result of Covid-19, liquids and technical services earned more than the pcp.

Company Profile 

Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (CWY) is Australia’s leading total waste management services company. CWY has a nation-wide footprint in solid, liquid, hydrocarbon and industrial services (with ~200 solid, liquid, hydrocarbon and industrial services depots and processing facilities across the country servicing well over 100,000 customers.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Cochlear’s Reported Strong FY21 Results

Investment Thesis

  • Benefits from an Australian tax incentive are possible. The patent box tax regime for medical technology and biotechnology, if legislation is successfully passed, should encourage the development of advancement in Australia by taxing corporate income derived from patents at a concessional effective corporate tax rate of 17 percent, with the concession applicable from income years beginning on or after 1 July 2022.
  • Attractive market dynamics – growing population requiring hearing aids, improved health in EM allowing for greater access to devices such as hearing aids, and a relatively emerging real estate market. There is still a significant, unmet, and configurable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants, which is expected to underpin COH’s longterm sustainable growth.
  • Positions of global market leadership.
  • Direct-to-consumer marketing is anticipated to accelerate market growth.
  • Best-in-class R&D programme (significant monetary investment), resulting in the continuous development of new products and upgrades to the existing suite of products.
  • New product launches are fueling ongoing demand across all segments.
  • Attractive exposure to Chinese, Indian, and, more recently, Japanese growth.
  • A strong balance sheet position.

Key Risks 

  • Recall of a product
  • In China, a persistent coronavirus outbreak is delaying the resumption of hospital operations.
  • The R&D programme fails to produce innovative products.
  • Intensification of competitive pressures.
  • Modifications to the government’s reimbursement policy.
  • The AUD/USD has experienced negative movement.
  • The emerging market does not recover – this has a significant negative impact on earnings.

Key Results FY21 Highlights

  • Sales revenue of $1,493 million was up 10%, or 19% in constant currency (CC), driven by market share gains, market growth, and rescheduled surgeries following Covid lockdowns. Sales revenue increased by 6% (CC) over the previous fiscal year, which was unaffected by the pandemic.
  • Implant units increased by 15% to 36,456 (up 20% in developed markets and 10% in emerging markets). Implant units increased by 7% over the previous fiscal year.
  • The underlying net profit increased by 54% to $237 million, falling within the $225-$245 million range.
  • The underlying net profit margin of 16 percent was higher than the 11 percent margin achieved in FY20, but it fell short of COH’s longerterm target of 18 percent.
  • Statutory NPAT of $327 million (includes $59 million in patent litigationrelated tax and other benefits and $31 million in aftertax innovation fund gains).
  • The Board declared a final dividend of $1.40 per share, bringing full-year dividends to $2.55 per share, an increase of +59 percent, and a payout ratio of 71 percent of underlying net profit, in line with COH’s target payout of 70 percent.
  • COH’s balance sheet position persists, with net cash of $564.6 million at year end, up from $457 million in FY20.

Company Profile 

Cochlear Ltd (COH) researches, develops and markets cochlear implant systems for hearing impaired people. COH’s hearing implant systems include Nucleus and Baha and are sold globally. COH has direct operations in 20 countries and 2,800 employees.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Cushman & Wakefield Excellent Recovery in First Half of 2021

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a boom in the commercial real estate services industry since the nadir of the real estate-driven global financial crisis of 2007. As the third-largest player in the space by market cap, Cushman & Wakefield has benefited disproportionately from various tailwinds that have underpinned an impressive run of growth. Key to this success has been the company’s industry-leading brand reputation and a platform that melds complementary business lines in areas such as property sales, leasing, project management, and outsourcing to serve its corporate and institutional clients.

Although Cushman & Wakefield nominally reports its segments on a regional basis, it also discloses the amount of revenue coming from each business line. Among these, the property, facilities, and project management business is the largest and also the most stable, providing contractual revenue from corporate customers. This business line, which contributes around 54% of companywide revenue, is where Cushman & Wakefield provides many of the services needed by corporations that occupy real estate. 

Finally, the company’s valuation and other business line include several services for corporate and institutional clients, which include appraisals that are used for various purposes. The leasing business line is Cushman & Wakefield’s second largest, contributing around 23% of companywide revenue. In this business line, the company’s brokers work with owners and occupiers of commercial real estate during the leasing process, primarily by executing lease agreements. Similarly, the capital markets business line, which contributes around 14% of companywide revenue, is where brokers facilitate the sale and purchase of commercial real estate property.

Financial Strength

Cushman & Wakefield has somewhat concerning financial health. Commercial real estate is highly cyclical and is subject to significant volatility during downturns, meriting a more cautious approach. Cushman & Wakefield’s higher level of leverage is the result of an aggressive acquisition strategy that has helped cement the firm’s position as a global provider able to compete effectively with CBRE and JLL. In response to the corona virus crisis, Cushman & Wakefield announced it would issue $650 million in senior notes, bringing further attention to its borderline precarious financial situation. 

Bull Says

  • As one of the largest of only a few truly international one-stop shops, Cushman & Wakefield is poised to continue taking share from competitors in a growing industry that increasingly rewards scale.
  • The trend of corporate outsourcing represents a significant opportunity and area of growth for Cushman & Wakefield.
  • Cushman & Wakefield is emerging as an authority on the topic of workplace protocols amid the corona virus era of social distancing, which will allow it to win new outsourcing contracts with major clients.

Company Profile

Cushman & Wakefield is the third largest commercial real estate services firm in the world with a global headquarters in Chicago. The firm provides various real estate-related services to owners, occupiers and investors. These include brokerage services for leasing and capital markets sales, as well as advisory services such valuation, project management, and facilities management.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

AMN Healthcare Fair Value Estimate to be raised to $71

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though recent performance represents a new normal. The company’s fair value estimate has been raised on narrow-moat AMN to $71 per share, up from $55 previously. Labor shortages and resumed healthcare utilization kept revenue up this quarter. Management’s third-quarter guidance provides some clarity for 2021 results, suggesting a sharper decline in the third quarter, which will stabilize in the fourth quarter.

Nursing and Allied revenue fell only 5% sequentially this quarter due to lower nursing volume and bill rates, offset by higher allied revenue. This decline was less than anticipated due not only to lingering COVID-19-related activity but also a thin labor market. A resurgence in patient volume combined with nurse burnout and resignations may limit further declines after third quarter, too. 

Physician and leadership solutions was down 1% sequentially, as COVID-19-related demand mostly ceased in the first quarter, while demand for physician and leadership search remains strong due to vacancies. Technology and workforce solutions grew by 6% sequentially, and the SaaS business should continue its rapid growth, though at a reduced pace as the firm exhausts its lower-hanging partnership opportunities. Gross and operating margin percentages remained stable from the first quarter. 

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected margins to steadily improve over the next few years, as the technology and workforce solutions segment will be a major driver of margin improvement, eventually overtaking physician and leadership solutions as the second-largest segment. AMN’s recent surge is consistent with the cyclical nature of this business, and is not believed this year represents a suitable point from which to anchor forecasts. Prior history shows that the firm does extraordinarily well during years of growth when need is high but it quickly reverts to baseline industry growth in the years thereafter.

Company Profile

AMN Healthcare Services Inc (NYSE: AMN) is the largest healthcare staffing company in the United States. In 2019, it placed almost 10,000 nurses and allied healthcare full-time workers with provider clients nationwide. About two thirds of its business is generated from its temporary nursing division; the other third is generated from its physician placement and technology-backed workplace solutions divisions.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Auckland Airport Taxis on the Runway with 2% Increase in FVE

with wide-moat Auckland Airport’s annual result offering fiscal 2022 guidance on what the airport will spend (on capital programs), but no guidance on what it will earn (for example revenue from passengers). Fair value estimate increases 2% to AUD 6.70 for the Australian listing due to time value of money. The shares screen as fairly valued at current levels. The New Zealand government has indicated that once vaccination rates increase, the plan is for a phased reopening, so long as that remains supported by the medical science.

The more cautious response to the pandemic in Australia and New Zealand means restrictions are unlikely to be largely removed until midway through fiscal 2022, a further recovery in the economy, consumer confidence in long-haul travel to rebuild, and a reigniting of the logistics needed to support mass travel, including travel agents, tour operators, business conferences, and so on.

The experience elsewhere in the world supports this view, with other highly vaccinated developed markets gradually removing restrictions. The pandemic’s notoriety was elevated in 2020 with the outbreak of corona virus on the Diamond Princess, but even the cruise industry has now restarted services in parts of the world. The company’s base case remains that virus concerns eventually fade, and passengers get back on board boats and airplanes.

Company’s Future outlook

It is believed that the air travel will recover to pre-pandemic levels. Air New Zealand’s fiscal 2021 domestic passenger capacity averaged a respectable 77% of pre-pandemic levels. Across the Tasman, Qantas was slower for the year, due to more frequent restrictions in Australia. However in the fourth quarter, a period which was relatively virus and restriction free nationwide, Qantas achieved domestic passenger traffic at 95% of pre-pandemic levels. Admittedly domestic travel in both nations was likely boosted by the inability to travel abroad. However, this is largely offset by the absence of international travelers taking domestic flights, especially in New Zealand, where nearly all international arrivals enter the country through Auckland Airport.

Company Profile

Auckland Airport is New Zealand’s largest airport, handling 21 million passenger movements in fiscal 2019, approximately 70% of the country’s international visitors. It owns 1,500 hectares of land, and hosts ancillary commercial services, including retail and duty-free, car parking, hotels, warehouses, and offices. Substantial development opportunities could bring its capacity up to nearly 26 million passenger movements per year anticipated by 2026, as well as adding capacity in the ancillary services offered. It also has a minority stake in the small but fast growing Queenstown airport on New Zealand’s south island.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

MFG’s reduced the performance fee for the FY21

Investment Thesis

  • Principal Investments have the potential to become a significant contributor to group performance in the medium- to long-term.
  • Due to the recent de-rating, MFG no longer trades at a significant premium to its peer group.
  • Acquisitions may help to pave growth runways, easing the Company’s fund capacity constraints.
  • The average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) remains stable, but fee pressures pose a risk to the downside (which is an industry trend not specific to MFG alone).
  • Strategic  growth performance, particularly in the global and infrastructure funds.
  • Increasing amounts of money are being managed.
  • New strategies could significantly increase the addressable market and aid in the maintenance of earnings growth.

Key Risks 

  • Fund performance has declined.
  • The risk of potential fund outflows – both retail and institutional – (loss of a large mandate).
  • Acquisitions carry a high level of execution risk.
  • Crucial quality man risk exists in the immediate vicinity of Hamish Douglass and key management or investment management personnel.
  • New strategies fail to generate significant earnings for the group.

Key Result of FY21

  • Adjusted revenue was $699.1 million, largely unchanged from the prior year, with the Funds Management business continuing to perform well (management and service fees increased by 7% to $635.4 million).
  • Profit before tax and performance fees in the Funds Management business increased by 10% to $526.6 million, driven by a +9% increase in average FUM to $103.7 billion (total net inflows of $4.5 billion).
  • The Board declared a dividend of $1.141 per share (75 percent franked) for the six months ending 30 June 2021, consisting of a final dividend of $1.026 and a quality fee dividend for the year of $0.115 per share, bringing total dividend payouts for the year to $2.112 per share, down -2 percent over pcp, and announced a share buyback plan to allow stockholders to reinvest their dividends at a 1.5 cents rate.

Company Profile 

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (MFG) is a specialist funds management business. MFG’s core subsidiary, Magellan Asset Management Ltd, manages ~$53.6bn of funds under management across its global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies for retail, high net worth and institutional investors.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Philosophy Shares Small Cap Technical Picks

Pact Group’s stock price has risen as a result of a 100% dividend increase.

Investment thesis

  • Strong market share in Australia, with a strong influence in Asia. As a result, it offers appealing exposure to the growth of both developed and emerging markets.
  • The corporation’s newly appointed CEO brings a fresh perspective on company strategy, which can restructure the company for strong volume growth.
  • Based on our projections, the valuation is reasonable.
  • Going forwards, management appears to be less centred on acquired growth, implying that the Company is less likely to make a value-destroying acquisition.
  • The reintroduction of the dividend is a positive sign that management is optimistic about future earnings growth.
  • In an environmentally friendly market, focusing on sustainable packaging.

Key Risks

The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:

  • Increased competitive pressures, resulting in further margin erosion.
  • Cost pressures on inputs that the corporation would be unable to pass on to users.
  • A worsening in Australia’s and Asia’s economic conditions.
  • The risk of emerging markets.
  • Poor acquisitions or failure to meet synergy targets as PGH shifts away from packaging for food, dairy, and beverage clients and towards more high-growth sectors such as healthcare.
  • Negative currency movements (purchased raw materials in U.S. dollars)

Highlights of key FY21 results

  • Revenue fell -3 percent to $1,762 million, while underlying EBITDA increased by 4% to $315 million, underlying EBIT increased by 10% to $183 million (EBIT margin increased by 120 basis points to 10.4 percent), and underlying NPAT increased by 28% to $94 million. The positive motivational drivers of group EBIT growth over the year were: margin improvement (+$10m) as a result of disciplined raw material input cost management; volume growth in Packaging & Sustainability (+$9m); and volume increase in Materials Handling & Pooling (+$15m).
  • As a result of strong operating performance and working capital management, cash flow performance improved, with free cashflow increasing by +44 percent to $104 million. 
  • Balance sheet gearing decreased slightly year on year, working to improve to 2.4x (within the targeted range of 3.0x) from 2.6x. The company has $317 million in liquid assets (undrawn debt capacity). 
  • Strong capital returns, with a +120bps increase in ROIC to 11.8 percent. The Board declared a final dividend of 6cps (65 percent franked), helping to bring the year’s total dividends to 11cps (vs 3cps in the pcp).

Company Description  

Pact Group Holdings Ltd (PGH) was established by Raphael Geminder in 2002 (Mr. Geminder remains a major shareholder with ~44% and is the brother in law of Anthony Pratt, Chairman of competitor Visy). Pact has operations throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia and conceives, designs and manufactures packaging (plastic resin and steel) for many productsin the food (especially dairy and beverage), chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors. 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Domino’s Pizza is taking the next step of growth and has released its FY21 results.

Investment thesis

  • Potential for solid growth in Europe and Japan, with significant opportunities that the Company is well positioned to capitalise on.
  • DMP has a strong position in the market in all of its existing geographies.
  • DMP is ahead of the curve in terms of technology and innovative customer offerings.
  • Merger in Europe to increase top-line revenue.
  • A solid management team.
  • Aiming for higher margins (i.e. operating leverage benefits).

Key Risks

The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:

  • Acquisition integrations are not proceeding as planned.
  • Failure to meet market expectations for sales and earnings growth.
  • Dietary concerns that compel customers to seek out healthier alternatives
  • Input and labour costs have risen.
  • Competition-related market pressures.
  • Key management personnel have left.
  • The corporate office must increase financial assistance to struggling franchisees.
  • Any additional negative media coverage, particularly regarding underpayment of wages at the franchisee level.
  • Any new concerns about store rollout (such as cannibalisation or demographics not supportive of new stores).
  • Commodity prices have risen as a result of Australia’s ongoing drought.

Highlights of key FY21 results

  • FY22 has begun on a strong footing, with 2,974 stores (including 26 opened this fiscal year) delivering +7.7 percent network sales growth (+2.7 percent on a Same Store basis)… With a two-year cumulative Same Store Sales growth of 13.7 percent, Domino’s is trying to demonstrate sustainable growth by retaining customers from the pandemic’s initial peaks.
  • The 3-5 Year Outlook for New Store Openings has increased to +9-12 percent (up from +7-9 percent),” with management stating that “a review of our modelling has increased our expectations for Benelux (+200 stores) and Japan (+500 stores), and now expects to operate 6,650 stores by 2033.
  • DMP reaffirms its 3-5 year Same Store Sales forecast of +3-6 percent.
  • The 3-5 year net capex outlook has been raised to $100-150 million (up from $60-100 million) as DMP assists franchisees with store expansions.
  • The Board has determined that it will increase its payout ratio from 70% to 80% in recognition of this new phase in Domino’s growth and the expected free cash flow.

Company Description  

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited (DMP) operates retail food outlets. The Company offers franchises to the public and holds the franchise rights for the Domino’s brand and network in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Japan. 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Panasonic’s Faster Than Expected Recovery Led by Auto and Data Center Demand

Panasonic has implemented a huge restructuring several times, approximately for every 15 years, and recovered its profitability each time. On the other hand, we doubt Panasonic’s capability on strategic investment, as the company failed to address the changing environment in the global consumer electronics industry and consequently did not generate sufficient return from past investments. In fact, Panasonic’s revenue has been unchanged at around JPY 7 trillion-JPY 8 trillion, and its operating margin has ranged between 1% and 5% for more than two decades. 

Financial Strength 

Panasonic has a very strong financial position, with net cash of JPY 288 billion (USD 2.7 billion) at the end of March 2016, having improved its balance sheet from a net debt position of JPY 1 trillion (USD 9.5 billion) at the end of 2012. This improvement has been achieved through a combination of improved operating cash flow performance (the company produced an operating cash flow loss in 2012 but generated a combined JPY 1.80 trillion in operating cash flow over 2013-15), as well as sales of investments and property, plant, and equipment.

Panasonic’s June-quarter revenue was 29% up from the previous year exceeding our expectations. The automotive segment’s sales were 1.8 times as large as the previous year driving the revenue growth because of the lower base due to the pandemic. The appliance segment’s sales were 22% up from the previous year as demand for flat-panel TVs and digital cameras recovered. Revenue for the industrial solutions segment was 24% up from the previous year as a result of robust investment for semiconductors and data centers. Panasonic’s revenue and operating income forecast for fiscal 2021 to JPY 7.3 trillion and JPY 390 billion from JPY 7.15 trillion and JPY 360 billion, respectively. Our new operating income forecast is 51% up from the previous year, driven by automotive, connected solutions, and industrial solutions segments. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • Panasonic has plenty of “one-off” earnings and cash flow upside available through exiting unprofitable products.
  • If Panasonic can hit its fiscal 2019 corporate plan targets, it will generate earnings and cash flow growth that should support a higher valuation.
  • Panasonic’s leading position in electric vehicle batteries puts it in a very strong position in a potentially revolutionary technology.

Company Profile 

Panasonic is a conglomerate that has diversified from its consumer electronics roots. It has five main business units: appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, laundry machines, and TVs); life solutions (LED lighting, housing systems, and solar panels; connected solutions (PCs, factory automations, and in-flight entertainment systems); automotive (infotainment systems and rechargeable batteries); and industrial solutions (electronic devices). After the crisis in 2012, former president Kazuhiro Tsuga has focused on shifting the business portfolio to increase the proportion of B2B businesses to mitigate the tough competition in consumer electronics products.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.