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Global stocks Shares

With the bank’s acquisition of MB Financial, Fifth Third’s share has improved substantially in the Chicago area

Business Strategy & Outlook

Fifth Third’s reputation as a solidly profitable bank took a hit during the financial crisis. The bank regularly reported returns on equity that exceeded 17% before 2007, largely because of a strong line of fee-income businesses. In 2007, primarily because of weakness in some of the bank’s most significant markets–Ohio, Michigan, and Florida–loan losses began to pile up. Although management could not avoid the impact of operating in hard-hit economies, a generally increasing appetite for risk compounded the bank’s problems. Over the course of 2008-09, loan-loss provisions ate up more than 100% of net interest income. Since the crisis, much has changed, and management has made improvements to the underwriting process and generally improved the bank’s risk management. Fifth Third has emerged from the crisis as one of the Midwest’s more stable banking franchises, with strong deposit share across several large cities in Ohio and Michigan. With the bank’s acquisition of MB Financial, Fifth Third’s share has improved substantially in the Chicago area. 

The bank is also entering a new stage of better cost controls, which when combined with coming rate hikes, should set up the bank for solid operating leverage for years to come and a consistent sub-60% efficiency ratio. These are all necessary moves as the bank figures out how to buoy returns in a post-Worldpay existence. Better card analytics, increased capital markets and M&A offerings, and bolt-on acquisitions should continue to help drive growth in revenues. Fifth Third has experimented with partnerships with financial technology firms, such as GreenSky, the bank has bolstered its investment banking franchise with bolt-on acquisitions, and the bank’s latest acquisition of Dividend Finance should produce steady loan growth for years. The bank has performed from a credit perspective this time around, much better than during the financial crisis. Overall, Fifth Third is a dependable Midwest operator with improved risk management, decent market share in key geographies, and particular strength among its core middle-market clients.

Financial Strengths

Since the financial crisis, Fifth Third had steadily built its capital base to what is considered a healthy level. The bank reported a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.1% as of September 2022, in line with management’s target of roughly 9%. Fifth Third is adequately capitalized to withstand future losses while also funding growth.

Bulls Say

  • A strong economy and higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel revenue and profitability even higher for Fifth Third. 
  • Fifth Third’s latest acquisition of Dividend Finance should drive outsized and profitable loan growth for years to come. 
  • Fifth Third may still have additional cost savings waiting in the background, potentially allowing the bank to outperform peers in an otherwise inflationary expense environment.

Company Description

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company headquartered in Cincinnati. The company has over $200 billion in assets and operates numerous full-service banking centers and ATMs throughout Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Florida, Tennessee, West Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

The linchpin of Nvidia’s business has been gaming

Business Strategy & Outlook

Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm’s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers. Traditional GPU uses include professional visualization applications that require realistic rendering, including computer-aided design, video editing, and special effects. Nvidia has experienced success in focusing its GPUs in nascent markets such as artificial intelligence (deep learning) and self-driving vehicles. Hyperscale cloud vendors have leveraged GPUs in training neural networks for uses such as image and speech recognition. The linchpin of Nvidia’s business has been gaming. PC gaming enthusiasts generally purchase high-end discrete GPUs offered by the likes of Nvidia and AMD. Going forward, the data center segment will drive most of the firm’s growth, led by the explosive artificial intelligence phenomenon. This involves collecting large swaths of data followed by techniques that develop algorithms to produce conclusions in the same way as humans. As Moore’s law-led CPU performance improvements have slowed, GPUs have become widespread in accelerating the training of AI models to perform a task. However, other solutions are more suitable for inferencing, which is the deployment of a trained model on new data. 

Today’s basic variants of AI are consumer-oriented and include digital assistants, image recognition, natural language processing, and recommendation engines. The firm views the car as a “supercomputer on wheels.” Although this segment currently contributes relatively little to the top line, the opportunity Nvidia has to grow its presence in cars beyond infotainment as drivers seek autonomous features in newer vehicles is acknowledgeable. Nvidia’s Drive PX platform is a deep learning tool for self-driving that is being used in R&D at more than 370 partners. In 2020, Nvidia acquired Mellanox to bolster its data center offerings in the networking realm to raise switching costs and improve performance of Nvidia’s existing portfolio.

Financial Strengths

Nvidia is in strong financial shape. The firm had about $13.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, versus total debt of about $11 billion on its balance sheet at the end of October 2022. Semiconductor firms tend to hold large cash balances to help them navigate the cycles of the chip industry. During downturns, this provides them with a cushion and flexibility to continue investing in research and development, which is necessary to maintain their competitive and technology positions. Nvidia’s dividend is very reasonable relative to its financial health and forward prospects, and the firm also returns excess cash to shareholders via stock buybacks.

Bulls Say

  • The proliferation of the artificial intelligence and deep learning phenomena that rely on Nvidia’s graphics chips presents the firm with a potentially massive growth opportunity. 
  • The firm has a first-mover advantage in the autonomous driving market that could lead to widespread adoption of its Drive PX self-driving platform. 
  • The increasing complexity of graphics processors provides a barrier to entry for most potential rivals, as it would be difficult to match Nvidia’s large R&D budget.

Company Description

Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the experience on computing platforms. The firm’s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming, data centers, and automotive infotainment systems. In recent years, the firm has broadened its focus from traditional PC graphics applications such as gaming to more complex and favorable opportunities, including artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, which leverage the high-performance capabilities of the firm’s products.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Hanes has plans to improve Champion’s footwear after recently taking control of the product

Business Strategy & Outlook

Narrow-moat Hanesbrands is the market leader in basic innerwear (60% of its 2021 sales) in multiple countries. Its key innerwear brands like Hanes and Bonds (in Australia) achieve premium pricing. While the firm faces challenges from inflation, the strong U.S. dollar, lower inventory levels at retailers, and COVID-19, Hanes’ share leadership in replenishment apparel categories puts it in better shape than some competitors. In May 2021, the firm unveiled its Full Potential plan to expand global Champion, bring growth back to innerwear, improve connections to consumers (through greater marketing and enhanced ecommerce, for example), and streamline its portfolio.

As part of Full Potential, Hanes intends to build on Champion’s popularity in North America, Asia, and Europe. Although recent results have been rocky, Champion has expansion opportunities as it and other activewear apparel have become more than just athletic apparel and are increasingly worn as lifestyle/fashion brands. Moreover, Hanes has plans to improve Champion’s footwear after recently taking control of the product. Hanes’ management forecasts Champion will reach $3.2 billion in global sales in 2024, up from more than $2 billion last year, but the macroeconomic and industry challenges have probably put this goal out of reach by this time frame. Another key strategy for Hanes is to improve the efficiency of its supply chain. It has already made progress in this area, having achieved a 15% increase in manufacturing output over the past four years. Hanes, unlike many rivals, primarily operates its own manufacturing facilities. More than 70% of the more than 2 billion apparel units sold by the company each year are manufactured in its own plants or those of dedicated contractors.

Financial Strengths

Hanes racked up considerable amounts of debt during its acquisition spree in 2013-18. Its balance sheet was improving prior to the pandemic, but has lately become a concern as its free cash flow has turned negative in 2022. Hanes closed 2022’s third quarter with about $3.9 billion in debt, but it also had $253 million in cash and $560 million available under its revolving credit facility. Despite recent challenges, Hanes will have significant cash available for debt reduction over the next few years, forecasting its total debt to drop to $1.9 billion by the end of 2026. The firm is to meet its goal of bringing debt/EBITDA (3.7 times at the end of 2021) below 3 times by 2026. Although Hanes suspended its share buybacks due to the pandemic, repurchases have resumed in a small way in 2022. The company bought back significant amounts of stock in 2016 and 2017 and repurchased $200 million in shares in early 2020 before the virus spread. It will repurchase about $200 million in shares per year over the next decade. Hanes, unlike many peers, did not suspend its dividend due to the virus. Its annual dividend has been set at $0.60 per share since 2017, but it will be increased in future years as debt is retired. Its annual dividend payout ratio will be around 40% in the long term. Hanes may expand the business through acquisitions, although it has not made a major acquisition since 2018. No acquisitions would be there due to uncertainty about timing, size, and profitability. At this point, internal investments and debt retirement are higher priorities than acquisitions.

Bulls Say

  • Hanes’ Champion is a contender in the hot but crowded athleisure space. The brand is already well known in North America and parts of Europe, and there is significant potential in China and other underpenetrated markets.
  • Hanesbrands has successfully introduced brand extensions that have allowed it to expand shelf space and increase price points in the typically staid category of basic apparel. 
  • After a review, Hanesbrands announced a new strategic plan called Full Potential to boost growth and reduce expenses, which should benefit its brand strength.

Company Description

Hanesbrands manufactures basic and athletic apparel under brands including Hanes, Champion, Playtex, Maidenform, Bali, and Bonds. The company sells wholesale to discount, midmarket, and department store retailers as well as direct to consumers. Hanesbrands is vertically integrated as it produces more than 70% of its products in company-controlled factories in more than three dozen nations. Hanesbrands distributes products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

As more and more retail transactions go through digital channels and commercial margins improve in PNC’s newer markets

Business Strategy & Outlook

PNC has transformed itself since the financial crisis, with the integration of the troubled National City (doubling the size of PNC), the acquisition of RBC’s U.S. branch network in the Southeast, and the acquisition of BBVA USA (a roughly 25% increase in size). PNC is now the second largest regional bank in the United States. PNC has been successful at organically expanding its customer base, both in commercial banking and in retail. The expanding client base has led to solid loan, deposit, and fee income growth. Selling new products into the formerly underperforming RBC branch network has worked, and PNC now seems poised to repeat this effort with the acquisition of BBVA. The bank’s Midwest commercial growth strategy is paying dividends, and PNC is now attempting retail growth efforts in the same areas where commercial expansion was successful as well as commercial optimization within the BBVA footprint.

The successful acquisition history, seemingly successful expansion initiatives, and improved credit performance during the 2007 downturn lead to believe that PNC is one of the better operators. Overall, the bank is a solid regional banking franchise, with a national presence and scale, retail and commercial offerings, a successful asset management unit, and solid middle market investment banking operations with its Harris Williams unit. PNC has executed on many expense-saving initiatives over the years, and management has been actively reinvesting many of these savings back in the business to stay ahead on the technology front, with multiple bolt on acquisitions already completed and more likely to occur in the future. As more and more retail transactions go through digital channels and commercial margins improve in PNC’s newer markets, improving operating efficiency for the bank.

Financial Strengths

PNC is in good financial health. The bank has weathered multiple energy downturns, the financial crisis, and the pandemic well. Most measures of credit strain remain quite manageable, and the bank’s history of prudent lending gives comfort with the risks here. PNC’s common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.3% as of September 2022 is more than adequate. The capital-allocation plan remains fairly standard for PNC, although the bank does plan to target a higher dividend payout ratio of closer to 40% or more over time. Otherwise, there is a preference to use extra profits to improve the competitive positioning of the bank through internal investment, with the left overs used for share repurchases.

Bulls Say

  • PNC’s acquisition of BBVA seems likely to add value to the franchise and for shareholders, and will make PNC one of the regional banks with the most scale, and could drive above-market fee growth for several years.
  • A strong economy and higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel results even higher. This is unique for banks, as many sectors don’t benefit from higher rates.
  • In addition to acquisitions, PNC has organic expansion opportunities it is taking advantage of, which could lead to higher organic growth than peers over time.

Company Description

PNC Financial Services Group is a diversified financial services company offering retail banking, corporate and institutional banking, asset management, and residential mortgage banking across the United States.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Phillips 66 holds its chemical assets in CPChem as a 5050 joint venture with Chevron

Business Strategy & Outlook

Phillips 66 remains the most diversified independent refiner with greater interests in marketing, chemical, and midstream assets than peers. While the performance of its refining segment will be the primary determinant of earnings in the near term, the midstream segment will increasingly be the value driver over time as Phillips 66 aims to grow its potential midcycle EBITDA by $3 billion to $13 billion by 2025. With an increased interest in DCP midstream, and planned buyout of the remaining public units, Phillips 66 increased its midstream NGL business size and scale which now stretches across the entire value chain from wellhead to market. With this larger platform, management plans to deliver $1.1 billion of its targeted midcycle EBITDA growth. Refining will remain a critical segment as performance is set to improve. Its midcontinent refineries are some of the firm’s best positioned, given their access to discount domestic and Canadian crudes. Its two Gulf Coast refineries benefit from pipelines that provide access to discount light and heavy crude, while the coastal location affords access to valuable export markets. Projects designed to increase utilization and capture rates and reduce costs are expected to improve the segment’s positioning and performance.

Total cost savings across the entire organization, including headcount reduction are expected to deliver $800 million by year-end 2023, plus a $200 million reduction in sustaining capital requirements. Phillips 66’s two California refineries and one East Coast refinery are the least competitive of its U.S. portfolio. As a result, it is converting its San Francisco area refinery to produce 800 million gallons of renewable fuels by 2024, which it expects to deliver $700 million of its EBITDA growth. Phillips 66 holds its chemical assets in CPChem as a 50/50 joint venture with Chevron. Production capacity is primarily concentrated in the United States (80%) and the Middle East, where CPChem can take advantage of low-cost feedstock like ethane. Future growth will come from projects in the Gulf Coast and Qatar toward the end of the decade, with little contribution from this segment toward the 2025 goals.

Financial Strengths

Management has been focused on reducing debt accumulated during 2020. At year-end 2021, it had largely succeeded in bringing debt back down to pre pandemic levels with the net debt/capital ratio falling to 29%, compared with 27% in 2019. It plans to maintain the ratio in the range of 25% to 30%.

With leverage targets achieved, management has revised its shareholder return targets along with its earnings growth guidance. It plans for $10 billion-$12 billion of shareholder distributions by year-end 2024. At its mid-cycle estimate of $10 billion in operating cash flow by 2025, it expects to direct at least 40% to shareholder returns. Capital spending will remain at $2 billion through 2024 but likely increase modestly thereafter given the growth in the business. At this level, management has suggested up to $7 billion could go toward shareholder returns at midcycle operating cash flow levels.

Bulls Say

  • Phillips 66 is expanding its midstream and chemical segments so that refining will eventually represent a minority of total earnings and help mitigate the risk of falling refined product demand.
  • Phillips 66 stands to benefit from higher crude oil prices, which could benefit the NGL fractionation operations in its midstream business.
  • With one of the highest distillates yields among its peers, Phillips 66 is well positioned for the long term, where the growth outlook for distillate is more favorable than gasoline.

Company Description

Phillips 66 is an independent refiner with 12 refineries that have a total crude throughput capacity of 2.0 million barrels per day, or mmb/d, after converting its 255 mb/d Alliance refinery to a terminal. The midstream segment comprises extensive transportation and NGL processing assets. It also includes its DCP Midstream joint venture, which holds 45 natural gas processing facilities, 11 NGL fractionation plants, and a natural gas pipeline system with 58,000 miles of pipeline. Its CPChem chemical joint venture operates facilities in the United States and the Middle East and primarily produces olefins and polyolefins.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

MFG saw FY22 revenue decline -8% yy, driven by material client outflows and consistent underperformance of the flagship global fund

Investment Thesis

  • Principal Investments could grow to become a meaningful contributor to group performance over the medium-to-long term.
  • MFG no longer trades at a significant premium to its peer-group post the recent derating.
  • Acquisitions could pave growth runways, helping to ease the Company’s fund capacity constraints.
  • Average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) continues to be stable but there are risks to the downside from pressures on fees (which is an industry trend not specific to MFG alone).
  • Continued strong investment performances, especially in the global and infrastructure funds.
  • Growing levels of funds under management.
  • New strategies could significantly increase the addressable market and help sustain earnings growth.

Key Risks

  • Decline in fund performance. 
  • Risk of potential funds outflow – both retail and institutional (loss of a large mandate). 
  • Execution risk with the acquisitions. 
  • Significant key man risk around Hamish Douglass and key management or investment management personnel. 
  • New strategies fail to add meaningful earnings to the group. 

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Revenues declined -8% to $609.1m, driven by -7% decrease in management fee revenue as a result of a -9% decrease in average FUM to $94.3bn and -62% decline in performance fees, partially offset by +274% increase in other revenue and income driven by distribution income of $17.6m, realised capital gains of $19.4m and net FX gain of $3.5m. 
  • Expenses increased +20% to $127.1m and came in between management’s guidance range of $125-130m (guidance range remains unchanged for FY23), equating to cost to income ratio (excluding performance fees) of 21.3%, up +450 bps, primarily driven by +25% growth in employee expenses and +45% growth in marketing expenses. 
  • Statutory NPAT increased +44% to $383m, however, adjusted NPAT (adjusted for strategic, non-recurring, non-cash or unrealised items) was down -3% to $399.7m. 
  • Strong balance sheet maintained with no debt and $963.3m in cash, financial assets and investments in associates, up +7%. 
  • FUM declined -46% to $61.3bn, split between global equities (54%), infrastructure equities (33%) and Australian equities (13%), driven by investment losses of $2.3bn, net outflows of $49.5bn and cash distributions (net of reinvestment) of $0.8bn.

Company Description

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (MFG) is a specialist funds management business. MFG’s core subsidiary, Magellan Asset Management Ltd, manages funds across its global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies for retail, high net worth and institutional investors.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

TCL also appears to be well positioned for an a higher inflationary & rising interest rate environment

Stock market digital graph chart on LED display concept. A large display of daily stock market price and quotation. Indicator financial forex trade education background.

Investment Thesis

  • Hard to replicate critical infrastructure assets.
  • TCL is well positioned for a higher inflationary & rising interest rate environment, given: (1) TCL’s exposure to interest rate exposure is low due to hedging policy, with 99% of TCL’s existing debt book hedged as at 31 Dec-21 and the majority of the debt which expires out to FY25 is above TCL’s weighted average cost of debt; (2) 68% of TCL’s revenue is linked to CPI price escalations as part of their concessions.
  • Consistent growth in earnings driven by four key factors: 1) Traffic (with mature toll roads delivering on average 2-4% annual traffic growth); 2) Prices (with escalation set with agreements with governments); 3) operational efficiency improvements; and 4) development contribution from new assets.
  • Solid yield – steady and growing distribution stream.
  • Integration of technology and systems to enhance operations.
  • Growth by asset acquisition and/or development of greenfield and brownfield projects.
  • Exposure to infrastructure assets in the U.S.
  • Strong management team with experience in deploying the developer-operator business model
  • West Gate Tunnel dispute is a drag on share price.

Key Risks

  • Bond yields experience a significant increase in the short term and track upwards over the long term.
  • Valuation appears full at current levels.
  • Project development cost blowouts.
  • Reduced traffic volumes.
  • Regulatory changes within the sector.
  • Unfavourable financing arrangements.
  • Poor acquisitions (derived from inaccurate modelling of traffic).

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Average daily traffic was down -4.8% vs pcp. Proportional toll revenue of $1.2bn was mostly unchanged on pcp with lower volumes offset by price escalations and resilience in commercial traffic. 
  • Total free cash for the half of $459m was down -1.6% on pcp (predominantly driven by Covid impacts on TCL’s 100% owned assets and higher working capital) and covered the first half distribution of 15cps. There were no capital releases during the period.
  • 1H22 proportional EBITDA of $805m was down -4.1% on pcp, with higher toll revenue more than offset by higher costs – with operational costs up +5.6% YoY driven by insurance premiums and investment in new capabilities (data analytics, cyber and other technology). A change in accounting of Software as a Service also contributed to the cost increase. 
  • Proportional EBITDA margins at the group level were down -310bps to 65.9%, driven by Covid restrictions impact on traffic in TCL’s largest markets. Management expects to see group margins return towards a more normal range 73-74% as restrictions lift and traffic again returns to pre-Covid levels. 
  • Company maintained a solid balance sheet, with Gering of 34.6% (most unchanged on pcp), liquidity of $3.8bn and debt book is 99% hedged (which provides protection in a rising interest rate environment).

Company Description

Transurban Group (TCL) develops, operates, and maintains urban toll road networks in Australia and the United States. The company holds interest in 15 roads in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Virginia. Transurban Group is headquartered in Docklands, Australia.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

Waypoint REIT retains a quality portfolio; currently trades on an attractive 6.0% dividend yield; provided robust FY22 guidance

Investment Thesis

  • WPR currently trades at a discount to its NTA and the valuations 
  •  Solid distribution yield. 
  • Quality $3.09bn asset portfolio (433 properties) with Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) of 10.0 years. 
  • Majority of assets on triple net leases, where the tenant is responsible for all property outgoings. 
  • Waypoint REIT leases to Viva Energy who has an Alliance Agreement/Site Agreements with Coles Express and a brand License Agreement with Shell. 
  • Potential expansion of property network by way of earnings accretive acquisitions. 
  •  Solid capital management with gearing with flexibility to make further acquisitions. 
  • High barrier to entry; difficult to replicate asset portfolio.

Key Risks

  • Tenant concentration risk. 
  • Termination of the alliance agreement with Coles Express. 
  • Competition by other branded service stations. 
  • Increased cost of fuel supply putting pressure on tenants. 
  • The sale of properties in the portfolio resulting in lower rental income. 
  •  Potential for excess supply of service stations thus affecting valuations and other property metrics of the portfolio.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Statutory net profit of $443.6m, up +58.5%, driven by 40bp of cap rate compression across the portfolio. 
  • Distributable Earnings of $122.6m, up +3.5%. Distributable Earnings per security of 15.80 cents, up +4.25% (versus 15.15 cents in FY20).
  •  Net tangible assets per security at FY21-end of $2.95, up +18.5% versus $2.49 in the pcp. 
  • 159 properties (or over one-third of the portfolio) were independently valued with directors’ valuations for the remaining assets, resulting in a gross valuation uplift of $320.1m and portfolio weighted average capitalisation rate (WACR) tightening from 5.56% at FY20-end to 5.16% at FY21-end. 
  • 40 non-core assets were divested for $137.1m, or a +10.5% premium to prevailing book value.
  • Weighted average lease expiry of 10.0 years, with five leases renewed during the year for an overall +3.5% increase in rent. 
  • WPR’s balance sheet remains strong with gearing of 30.1% is within the 30-40% target gearing range, with $59.6m of liquidity currently available and no debt expiring until 2024. WPR’s $200.0m Australian medium term note issuance and $285.0m of bank debt refinanced, extending weighted average debt maturity from 4.3 years to 5.0 years at FY21-end. 73% of debt hedged at FY21-end with a weighted average hedge maturity of 3.6 years. 
  • WPR completed $173.3m of capital management initiatives including buy-back of 15.3m stapled securities for $41.1m (average price of $2.68 per security), a $132.2m return of capital (17cps) and a security consolidation approved by securityholders. 

Company Description

Waypoint REIT Ltd (WPR) is an Australian listed REIT that owns a portfolio of service stations across all of Australia’s states and territories. It currently owns 469 service stations in its portfolio. Its service stations are leased on a long-term basis to Viva Energy Australia who has licence and brand agreements with Shell and Coles Express.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

WES reported 1H22 results reflecting earnings weaker relative to the pcp, with revenue of 17758m largely flat relative to the pcp

Investment Thesis

  • Ongoing momentum in discretionary spend, driven by strength in housing prices.
  • Diversified asset base with core assets continuing to grow (Bunnings)
  • Expect improved performance from Target and Industrials businesses.
  • On-going focus on shareholder return including attractive yield.
  • Strong management team.
  • Strong balance provides flexibility to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.
  • Potential capital management initiatives.

Key Risks

  • Margin erosion due to competitive pressures.
  • Disappointing earnings performance in Bunnings.
  • Deterioration in the macro picture leading to lower retail sales activity and volumes.
  • Deterioration in balance sheet metrics.
  • Adverse movements in AUD/USD.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • WES’s earnings were weaker relative to the pcp, with revenue of $17,758m largely flat relative to the pcp, but EBIT of $1,905, declined -12.3%, and NPAT of $1,213, was -14.2% weaker, with strong results in WesCEF and Industrial and Safety, up +36.3% and +10.8% respectively, more than offset by poor performance in Kmart and Officeworks, down -63.4% and -18.0% respectively. 
  • Free cash flows of $949m was -51.7% weaker.
  • Net capex increased to $405m, up +66.7%.
  • WES’s balance sheet position deteriorated from the pcp as a result of a $2.3bn return of capital to shareholders in December, with net financial debt/cash reversing from a net cash position of $871m to $2,615m net financial debt position at the end of the half. Debt to EBITDA (excluding significant items) is now 2.0x versus 1.3x in the pcp. 
  • The Board declared an interim dividend of 80cps, fully franked, -9.1% lower than the pcp.

Company Description

Wesfarmers Limited (WES) has diverse business operations covering convenience stores, home improvement, office supplies, and department stores. The company also has an industrials division which includes businesses in chemicals and fertilizers, industrial and safety products and coal. Wesfarmers employs over 220,000 people.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

VUK reported a very strong FY21 result, with +546% YoY underlying PBT growth, driven by improving net interest margin

Investment Thesis

  • Trades on undemanding valuations (i.e. depressed price to book and price to earnings) and below the valuation (which also includes a Brexit / Covid discount). 
  • Potentially further provisioning required as a result of Covid-19. 
  • Improving shareholder returns (including potential for buybacks).
  • Delivering on medium term targets.
  • Solid franchise and branch network. 
  • Synergies from Virgin Money acquisition to support earnings growth.
  • Expected low levels of impairment charges (especially as a low interest rate environment helps customers and arrears). 
  • Funding position remains sound, however excess funding for potential capital management is unlikely now. 
  • Increasing penetration in the SME and retail banking space in the UK.

Key Risks

  • The UK economy recovers quicker than expected post-Covid-19. 
  •  VUK resumes dividend payments earlier than expected. 
  • More intense competition for deposit and loan growth. 
  • Increase in bad and doubtful debts or increase in provisioning. 
  • Funding pressure for deposits. 
  • Medium term guidance targets, especially cost reduction targets, fall short. 
  • Regulatory changes especially around any capital requirements and hence lower ROEs achieved.
  • Brexit uncertainty (potentially leading the UK economy into recession).
  • Clarity provided over Virgin Money disappoints.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Underlying operating income +2% to £1572m, with net interest income increasing +5% to £1412m as lower deposit costs, structural hedge benefit and growth in higher yielding assets more than offset mortgage spread pressures, partially offset by -16% decline in non-interest income to £160m, reflecting weaker market conditions.
  • Underlying operating expenses reduced -2% to £902m with the underlying cost-to-income ratio reducing -200bps to 57% as efficiencies from cost savings programme were partly offset by higher variable remuneration. 
  • Impairment release of £131m (vs £501m charge in pcp) amid robust asset quality & improving outlook, however, maintained coverage levels of 70bps (down -33bps), well above pre-pandemic levels. 
  • Underlying PBT improved +546% to £801m driven by a recovery in income, lower costs and improved impairment performance leading to underlying RoTE improving +17.2% to 17.8%. VUK returned to statutory profit before tax of £417m from £168m loss, equating to statutory RoTE of 10.2%. 
  • Capital strengthened with CET1 increasing +150 bps to 14.9% (14.4% excluding software benefit) equating to buffer of £1.4bn over MDA threshold of 8.7%, and strong liquidity & funding position maintained with LCR of 151% (up +11%) and 108% (up +100 bps) loan-to-deposit ratio.
  • Capital returns resumed with the Board declaring a 1p dividend (updated capital framework and dividend policy post-SST at 1H22).

Company Description

Virgin Money UK Plc is a holding company that owns Clydesdale Bank and Yorkshire Bank in the United Kingdom. It was formed by National Australia Bank (NAB) in February 2016, in advance of the divestment of its UK segment via IPO. VUK is a full-service challenger bank of scale servicing both retail and SME in the UK market. VUK services ~160k small business customers with a turnover of less than £2m, and ~23k medium businesses with a turnover of >£2m.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.