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Global stocks Shares

Williams-Sonoma has set its sights on expanding its total addressable market outside of furniture

Business Strategy & Outlook

Williams-Sonoma has carved out a solid position in the $750 billion global home category and the $80 billion U.S. business-to-business industry. It has historically launched most of its brands organically in underserved segments and its brand intangible asset has been the supporting factor in its top- and bottom-line growth. Its ability to drive repeat business relies on customer loyalty and smart marketing and merchandising and the firm has access to some of the best analytics in retail. This should help Williams-Sonoma outperform its competitors and grow its market share, aided by new category expansions. In recent years, Williams-Sonoma has set its sights on expanding its total addressable market outside of furniture and home furnishings, via B2B and marketplace efforts, categories with robust end markets that remain fragmented. These white-space business lines, along with faster growth from both franchise and the e-commerce channels (which accounted for 66% of 2021 sales) should help 

Williams-Sonoma reached $10 billion in sales in 2026. Furthermore, the aforementioned categories have the ability to deliver better operating margins than the historical brick-and-mortar business (which is on track to decrease its store base by 25% between 2020 and 2025), allowing mix to offer a natural lift to profitability. Such efforts, along with lower costs from an improved supply chain (when COVID-19 constraints subside), better distribution network (from direct sourcing and furniture delivery operations), as well as higher productivity of its store fleet (as underperforming locations close and older leases are renegotiated) should allow for operating margins that are consistently at a midteens rate. Despite a solid competitive edge, the company isn’t insulated from the proliferation of e-commerce peers such as no-moat Wayfair pushing harder into the home furnishing space, bounding upside potential. Even with robust competition in the category, narrow-moat Williams-Sonoma could deliver an average adjusted return on invested capital, including goodwill, averaging 30% over the forecast, well ahead of the 9% weighted average cost of capital estimate.

Financial Strengths

Williams-Sonoma is in fine financial health, with plenty of cash on hand, ending its third quarter with $113 million on its balance sheet. Given the strong free cash flow it has been able to generate, the firm will not have to tap the equity or credit markets for liquidity anytime soon, and there is currently no long-term debt outstanding, liberating excess cash flow for a return to shareholders. Over the past five fiscal years, the company has produced cumulative free cash flow of $3.4 billion. Williams Sonoma’s cash requirements are primarily for inventory, property, plant, and equipment, advertising and marketing, technology, share repurchases, and dividends, which will mostly be funded by cash generated from operations. Free cash flow to equity has averaged about 10% of revenue during the past five years, which is decent for a company that can produce somewhat volatile results that are closely tied to the performance of the housing market. The company resumed share repurchases in the fourth quarter of 2020, and the board authorized a $1.5 billion share buyback program in March 2022, which should facilitate continued buybacks ahead (in fiscal 2021 the company repurchased $899 million in shares, well ahead of any other year in the past decade). Williams-Sonoma has repurchased $841 million in shares in the first three quarters of fiscal 2022. Additionally, it pays a dividend of $0.78 per quarter, representing a payout that was raised 10% in March 2022, illustrating the board’s confidence in the strength of the underlying business. Over the next decade, the firm is to average around 8% EPS growth (increasing modestly faster than sales), bolstered by continued top-line growth, a favorable sales mix shift, and stringent cost controls. Williams Sonoma is positioned to earn an average of around $1 billion in free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital expenditures) over the next five years.

Bulls Say

  • Less discretionary categories such as cookware and small appliances offer some resilience amid macroeconomic cyclicality. Registries in categories such as wedding and baby offer a steady source of customers.
  • The firm opened company-owned stores abroad in Australia in 2013 and has since expanded to the U.K.International opportunities (owned and franchised) could provide location and sales growth and elevated brand awareness.
  • Around two thirds (or more) of sales has stemmed from the e-commerce channel in recent years, which helps minimize store expenses and maximize operating margins.

Company Description

With a wide retail and direct-to-consumer presence, Williams-Sonoma is a leader in the $300 billion domestic home category, focused on expanding its exposure in the B2B, marketplace, and franchise areas. Namesake Williams-Sonoma (175 stores) offers high-end cooking essentials, while Pottery Barn (189) provides casual home accessories. Brand extensions include Pottery Barn Kids (52) and PBteen. West Elm (121) is an emerging concept for young professionals, and Rejuvenation (9) offers lighting and house parts. Williams-Sonoma also has a business-to-business team that supports projects that range from residential to large-scale commercial.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

CrowdStrike’s business model, much like its SaaS peers, is premised on landing clients and subsequently expanding the dollars they spend

investment stockbroker risk analysis using multiple devices. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

Business Strategy & Outlook

CrowdStrike is a leader in endpoint security, a necessity that aids in protecting devices and networks, and its threat hunting and breach remediation services are topnotch. While nefarious threat actors are continually upping their attack methodology to create zero-day attacks and are using the rise in entities using cloud-based resources to their advantage, CrowdStrike developed a methodology to turn any entities’ weak-point into better protection for all of its clients. CrowdStrike’s cloud-delivered endpoint protection platform continuously ingests data from all of its installed agents to enhance its protection solutions while keeping all users up to date against the latest threats. CrowdStrike’s customer base, revenue, and margins will experience profound growth throughout the 2020s as customers update their endpoint and workload security requirements in a hybrid-cloud world. CrowdStrike’s endpoint protection platform melded the needs of next-generation antivirus, threat intelligence, endpoint detection and response, and other features like managed threat hunting into a consolidated management plan. The lightweight agents, installed on physical devices like servers and laptops, or in virtual machines and cloud environments, are continually improving through its cloud database algorithms, becoming more capable as more data is received. CrowdStrike’s solutions establish customer switching costs and its network effect makes changing vendors a challenge as clients rely on having the latest threat protection. Alongside a persistent talent shortage in cybersecurity and firms attempting to manage disparate toolsets for various parts of endpoint security, entities are challenged to stay secure in networking environments without distinct security perimeters. CrowdStrike’s experts supplement these overwhelmed or short-staffed teams, and the firm also offers breach remediation and proactive testing services. CrowdStrike is in the early stages of becoming a market mainstay as businesses and governments rapidly adopt cloud-based endpoint protection platforms.

Financial Strengths

CrowdStrike is a financially sound company that will be able to generate solid free cash flow and expand its margin profile throughout the 2020s. CrowdStrike had its initial public offering in June 2019 and has historically operated at a loss on a GAAP basis. CrowdStrike’s capital deployment efforts true to a land-and-expand strategy, whereby CrowdStrike initially has elevated sales and marketing expenses to gain a customer cohort before expanding its revenue per customer while lowering its operating costs per customer (on a revenue percentage basis). CrowdStrike can benefit from cross-selling and up-selling tangential products to its existing base and new clients, while also converting breach remediation service clients to be product customers. As of the end of fiscal 2022, CrowdStrike had $2.0 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities and $740 million of debt. With a strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation, CrowdStrike is to pay its obligations on time.

Bulls Say

  • CrowdStrike’s innovative endpoint security solutions, delivered as a platform, are quickly attracting customers as clients want to consolidate their myriad legacy security tools. Its threat remediation services are a powerful tool in landing new subscription clients.
  • After landing a client, CrowdStrike can gain significant margin leverage via the cross-selling and up-selling of additional security modules.
  • Larger firms, with much longer operating track records versus CrowdStrike, have been adding endpoint security into their portfolios that can disrupt technology partnerships and go-to-market strategies.

Company Description

CrowdStrike Holdings provides cybersecurity products and services aimed at protecting organizations from cyberthreats. It offers cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity and data, and threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, identity protection, and log management. CrowdStrike went public in 2019 and serves customers worldwide.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Huntington returned to the acquisition front in a big way in 2016 with the purchase of FirstMerit

Over the shoulder view of and stock broker trading online while accepting orders by phone. Multiple computer screens ful of charts and data analyses in background.

Business Strategy & Outlook

Huntington Bancshares did not fare well in the aftermath of the financial crisis, largely because of the poorly timed acquisition of Sky Financial in 2007. Although it seemed a reasonable combination at the time with significant footprint overlap, the potential for considerable synergies turned into massive losses due to the subprime mortgage business and bad commercial loans. Under its new leader, Stephen Steinour, Huntington embarked on a strategy shift in 2010 that focused on delivering strong customer service to middle-market businesses and retail clients. The bank also took steps to improve its internal credit procedures and shore up its balance sheet. This strategy has been successful. Commercial and consumer relationships have grown, Huntington has been successful at expanding relationships across multiple product lines, and overall fee income has improved. In 2016, the bank stated that 47% of its commercial clients used four or more of its products or services, up from 22% in 2010, while 52% of retail customers used at least six or more services, up from 43% in 2013. Huntington returned to the acquisition front in a big way in 2016 with the purchase of FirstMerit. This added much-needed scale and efficiency while improving market share. After cutting over 40% of FirstMerit’s original cost base, Huntington sold its more expensive product set in new and underpenetrated markets. Growth in home lending in Chicago and growth from the RV/boat financing unit have been very strong, indicating that the merger worked. Meanwhile, Huntington’s auto financing franchise remains strong as ever. 

Since FirstMerit, Huntington has completed several bolt-on acquisitions, including HSE in 2018 and Capstone Partners in 2022 to help further build out their capital markets unit. Huntington also completed another sizable banking acquisition in 2021 with TCF Financial, in a classic cost-saving, market-overlap play. Beginning to get a true feel for more normalized financials following the acquisition. The initial impression is that the bank may struggle to reach its goal of 17%-plus returns on tangible common equity through the cycle.

Financial Strengths

Huntington is in solid financial health. The bank has been generating profits since 2010, with returns on tangible equity handily exceeding its 9% cost of capital. Huntington reported a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 9.3% as of September 2022, and given the bank’s moderate to low appetite for risk, this seems very reasonable to us

Bulls Say

  • A strong economy and higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel revenue and profitability even higher. 
  • Huntington’s recent acquisitions have improved the bank’s scale and share, and more revenue growth could be right around the corner. 
  • Huntington has taken advantage of new markets and product sets from its acquisitions, growing fee income and taking some share along the way. This could continue, potentially allowing Huntington to grow revenue faster than peers.

Company Description

Huntington Bancshares is a regional bank holding company headquartered in Columbus, Ohio. The bank has a network of branches and ATMs across eight Midwestern states. Founded in 1866, Huntington National Bank and its affiliates provide consumer, small-business, commercial, treasury management, wealth management, brokerage, trust, and insurance services. Huntington also provides auto dealer, equipment finance, national settlement, and capital market services that extend beyond its core states.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Hub has constructed intermodal and truck brokerage networks of sufficient scale to be attractive to customers

Graphic of investment stock market data analysis business

Business Strategy & Outlook

Hub Group is the second-largest intermodal marketing company and also ranks among the 20 largest asset-light truck brokers in terms of gross revenue. In its flagship intermodal division, Hub contracts with the Class I railroads for the line-haul movement of its owned containers. It operates the second-largest fleet in the industry, with exclusive access to more than 30,000 containers, and enjoys an approximate 10% market share. By gross revenue, J.B. Hunt is the largest intermodal marketing company, followed by Hub and the intermodal divisions of STG Logistics, Schneider National and Knight Swift. Hub has constructed intermodal and truck brokerage networks of sufficient scale to be attractive to customers (shippers) and suppliers, both of which benefit from using a larger intermediary. 

Sophisticated IT systems and market know-how enable customers to outsource intermodal shipping to an expert specialist, while Hub’s large volume of loads and significant control of containers make it an attractive customer to the Class I railroads. The company’s primary rail carriers are Norfolk Southern in the East and Union Pacific in the West. Rates in the competing truckload market corrected in 2019, pressuring intermodal value proposition relative to trucking, and initial pandemic disruption pressured container volume into early 2020. However, truckload capacity tightened drastically by mid-2020 (remaining scarce through most of 2022), while contract pricing soared across all modes and underlying intermodal demand jumped on heavy retail shipper restocking (intermodal cargo is mostly consumer goods). The onset of rail service shortfalls in second-half 2021 has throttled Hub’s container volume growth despite otherwise positive freight demand, but the firm is working diligently with the railroads and customers to minimize the issue. A growth across Hub’s intermodal can be seen, truck brokerage and dedicated operations will take a breather in 2023. That said, for intermodal 2.5%-3.0% normalized U.S. retail sales growth and conversion trends to support 3.0%-3.5% industry container volume expansion longer-term, with 2.0%-2.5% pricing gains on average.

Financial Strengths

Hub Group’s balance sheet is healthy, and the firm is not overly leveraged. At the end of 2021, Hub held a manageable amount of debt, which is normally used to help finance equipment purchases (especially intermodal containers) as well as tuck-in acquisitions like the 2020 Nonstop Delivery deal. Total debt came in near $275 million in 2021. Debt/EBITDA stood at less than 1 times in 2021, versus 1 time in 2020 and a five-year average near 1.3 times. The firm held roughly $160 million in cash at year-end 2021 versus an approximate $125 million in 2020. Historically, Hub’s model generated decent free cash flow in years when it wasn’t acquiring intermodal containers. Overall, free cash flow averaged 2.5% of gross revenue over the past five years, with capital expenditures approximating 3% of sales. Capital expenditures will likely come in near 5% of sales in 2022 due in part to investment in additional intermodal containers to capitalize on growth opportunities. The 2017 acquisition of Estenson, which provides asset-based dedicated trucking services, incrementally moved Hub into the capital-intensive truckload shipping business, and the operation originally required meaningful investment in tractors to support fleet growth. Most of the firm’s logistics-segment operations, including last mile and truck brokerage, are asset light by nature.

Bulls Say

  • Contract pricing across the intermodal and truckload shipping sectors is likely to normalize in 2023 as capacity constraints diminish. 
  • Because of high inventory levels, retail customers’ trailer detention levels are abnormally high, contributing to network inefficiencies across Hunt’s.
  • In Hub’s core intermodal division, transportation costs and customer satisfaction depend heavily on the performance of partner Class I railroads, which have been grappling with labor-related network headwinds.

Company Description

Hub Group ranks among the largest asset light providers of rail intermodal service. Roughly 60% of revenue comes from Hub’s intermodal and transportation solutions division. ITS includes its flagship intermodal operations, which use the Class I rail carriers for the underlying line-haul movement of containers, as well as its dedicated truckload unit. Asset light truckload and LTL brokerage makes up around 20%. The remaining 20% reflects Hub’s logistics division, which provides outsourced transportation management, warehousing and fulfillment, and final mile delivery. Hub is somewhat acquisitive in that it often makes tuck-in acquisitions which expand its brokerage, logistics, and dedicated truckload offerings.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

Apartment Income has significantly streamlined its portfolio and strategy over the past decade

Elderly woman holding a small house in her hands

Business Strategy & Outlook

Apartment Income REIT has significantly slimmed down the portfolio of multifamily buildings it owns over the past decade to just its best assets. The company invests in metropolitan markets with solid demographic trends that allow the company to maintain high occupancies and pass along consistent rent increases. Demand for apartments depends on economic conditions in their markets like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers. Apartment Income’s portfolio is typically more suburban than its multifamily REIT peers, which has put it at a slight disadvantage over the past economic cycle but should favor growth in the company as millennials move from the urban centers out into the suburbs over the next few years. The company regularly recycles capital by selling noncore assets or markets and uses the proceeds to fuel targeted acquisitions with strong growth prospects, a strategy that has improved the company’s performance over the past few years. Apartment Income has significantly streamlined its portfolio and strategy over the past decade. 

While the company has decreased its portfolio from over 300 properties at the end of 2008 to 80 properties in the current portfolio, the company owns approximately the same number of assets over that time frame in the 8 markets it currently considers to be its core markets. The company’s exit from markets with lower growth prospects has increased the portfolio’s expected average growth. The company completed the sale of the last of its affordable living and asset management businesses in 2018, segments with limited growth prospects that the company has been trying to exit for years. In 2020, Apartment Income spun off its development pipeline and lease-up portfolio into its own company so that the remaining company could focus on the highest-quality assets. These efforts have brought Apartment Income’s portfolio closer to its peers in terms of both asset quality and market exposure. While the company still has a differentiated portfolio from its peers, it is to have similar internal and external growth opportunities.

Financial Strengths

Apartment Income is in decent financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective. Debt maturities in the near term should be manageable through a combination of refinancing, asset sale proceeds, and free cash flow. The company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition and development opportunities arise. 2023 net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest to be roughly 7.2 and 3.8 times, respectively, both of which represent leverage levels higher than to see for the company. However, the company will generate solid EBITDA growth and maintain discipline in capital allocation decisions and should improve these leverage metrics over time. As a REIT, Apartment Income is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cash flow from operating activities, providing Apartment Income plenty of flexibility to make capital allocation and investment decisions. The company’s credit rating is to remain stable through steady rental income growth in its existing portfolio and the stabilization of the company’s current developments, which should allow the company to continue to access the debt market in combination with equity issuance and asset dispositions to fund its debt maturities, acquisitions, and new development activity.

Bulls Say

  • Apartment Income’s diversified portfolio of mainly suburban and infill assets should see less impact from supply, which is more concentrated in urban, luxury markets.
  • Positive demographic and economic trends will fuel strong demand for apartment rentals, including the millennial generation, which is beginning to move to the suburbs but still lack the necessary capital to purchase a home. 
  • While supply growth may be near a peak now, rising construction prices and higher lending standards will reduce construction starts and reduce supply growth in the future.

Company Description

Apartment Investment and Management Co. owns a portfolio of 84 apartment communities with over 26,000 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in the urban and suburban submarkets of Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

The Sinclair acquisition furthers HFs push into renewable diesel, adding a production facility and pre-treatment project

Business Strategy & Outlook

After the acquisition of Sinclair Oil, HollyFrontier, now HF Sinclair, is a fully integrated independent company composed of refining, marketing, renewables, specialty lubricants, and midstream businesses. Its refining footprint has grown to seven refineries totaling 678 mbd in total capacity, including the recently acquired Puget Sound refinery. The latter deal extends the company’s footprint to the West Coast, beyond its historical midcontinent and Rockies roots and into a more difficult refining market with less competitive advantages. However, the foothold in the West Coast should help with the growing renewable diesel business given the region’s growing biofuel mandates. The Sinclair acquisition furthers HF’s push into renewable diesel, adding a production facility and pre-treatment project. Combined with HF’s existing projects (two RD units and a pre-treatment unit), it expects to produce 380 million gallons annually once complete in 2022. 

Adding Sinclair’s marketing group of over 300 distributors, 1,300 wholesale brand sites, and 2 billion gallons a year of branded sales adds a stable earnings stream HF previously lacked as a merchant refiner. In addition, it offers the ability to generate RINs whose high costs have put HF at a disadvantage in the recent past. HF had already begun to diversify its earnings when it acquired the Petro-Canada lubricants business, Red Giant Oil, and Sonneborn to diversify its earnings stream. It expects the segment to generate $250 million EBITDA annually while also serving as a platform for future growth. At the same time, HF’s MLP Holly Energy Partners acquired Sinclair’s midstream assets including 1,200 miles of pipelines, eight product terminals with 4.5 mmbbl of storage, and interests in three pipeline joint ventures. The incremental EBITDA of $70 million-$80 million will increase HEP’s annual EBITDA to about $450 million while opening up future organic and external transaction growth opportunities.

Financial Strengths

HF Sinclair’s debt increased amid the difficult market conditions and acquisitions in the last few years. However, with completion of the Sinclair acquisition, net debt was only 16% at the end of the third quarter, including Holly Energy Partners’ debt, among the lowest of its peer group. To fund the Puget Sound acquisition with cash, management suspended the dividend but reinstated it in the first quarter 2022, earlier than expected. The Sinclair acquisition was done with equity. By first-quarter 2023, management planned to have returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, but did so by third-quarter 2022 given the strong market conditions. It has already authorized another $1 billion in repurchases as part of its guidance of an ongoing 50% payout ratio of adjusted net income through dividends and repurchases. Capital spending doubled in 2021 to $1.2 billion primarily driven by planned investments in renewable diesel, with the remainder earmarked for refining and lubricants. Spending should fall in 2022 as renewable diesel projects are completed but increase slightly in 2023. Management has set the minimum cash balance target at $500 million.

Bulls Say

  • HF Sinclair stands to benefit from continued discount of light and heavy mid continent crude. Also, its Navajo refinery is well positioned to capitalize on growing Permian production. 
  • The Sinclair acquisition adds refining assets complementary to HF’s legacy footprint while adding a marketing business that its portfolio lacked, improving competitiveness. 
  • Investments in renewable diesel should deliver free cash flow and high returns while offering diversification from petroleum, reducing carbon intensity, and generating valuable RINs.

Company Description

HF Sinclair is an integrated petroleum refiner that owns and operates seven refineries serving the Rockies, midcontinent, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest, with a total crude oil throughput capacity of 678,000 barrels per day. It is investing to produce 380 million gallons of renewable diesel annually. It holds a marketing business with over 300 distributors and 1,300 wholesale branded sites across 30 states. It also has a 47% ownership stake in Holly Energy Partners, which owns and operates petroleum product pipelines and terminals principally in the southwestern US.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Historically, BDX was considered a virtually recession-proof business

Business Strategy & Outlook

After a tumultuous few years, Becton, Dickinson is undergoing course correction. The COVID-19 revenue windfall has been reinvested, which should lift the firm’s core business growth in the upcoming years once the testing revenue fades. The biggest uncertainty remains around the return of BD’s pump infusion system (Alaris) to the market, which could be a material catalyst for the company whenever it occurs. Historically, BD was considered a virtually recession-proof business. The essential nature of many of BD’s medical products had typically shielded the firm from any capital spending-related volatility, and this business continued to fare fine during the COVID-19-induced hospital admission deceleration. However, many of the businesses acquired with Bard have exposed BD to revenue volatility. Combined with the setbacks and revenue deceleration in the peripheral segment, the Bard acquisition has not been a smashing success. With hospital activity returning to more normal levels, there’s a momentum in the surgery segment that came with Bard, and while peripheral is no longer the star of the portfolio, businesses acquired are lifting BD’s growth profile from its historic levels.

Alaris continues to be a headache for BD, and this recall represents a significant blemish on the company’s previously very clean execution track record. The magnitude of the damage to the pump franchise is still not certain, but BD will still end up ceding material market share in this area by the time the pump returns to the market (which could be as far out as 2025). The company needs almost flawless execution in the upcoming years to reverse investors’ growing skepticism regarding its performance.

Financial Strengths

BD’s debt level is manageable after the Embecta spinoff and recent acquisition. The company has recovered its investment-grade rating and generates strong free cash flow to fund its dividend, which is among the largest of its peers. Most of the COVID-19 testing revenue has been reinvested into R&D, which will lead to an improved growth profile going forward.

Bulls Say

  • BD’s surgery business delivered strong performance since the pandemic waned. 
  • BD reinvested its testing windfall into R&D in its key areas, which will likely lead to the elevated growth (relative to its historic levels) going forward. 
  • Embecta spinoff is a positive development for BD in terms of its growth opportunities.

Company Description

Becton, Dickinson is the world’s largest manufacturer and distributor of medical surgical products, such as needles, syringes, and sharps-disposal units. The company also manufactures diagnostic instruments and reagents, as well as flow cytometry and cell imaging systems. BD Interventional (largely the former Bard business) accounts for 23% of revenue. International revenue accounts for 44% of the company’s business.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

Equity Residential has created significant shareholder value through development

Confident beautiful businesswoman in hardhat explaining blueprint to forewoman at construction site

Business Strategy & Outlook

Equity Residential has repositioned its portfolio over the past decade to focus on owning and operating high-quality multifamily buildings in urban, coastal markets with demographics that allow the company to maintain high occupancies and drive strong rent growth. The company has sold out of inland and southern markets and increased its operations in high-growth core markets: Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York, Boston, and Seattle. These markets exhibit traits that create demand for apartments, like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers that draw younger people. The company regularly recycles capital by selling non core assets or exiting markets and using the proceeds for its development pipeline or acquisitions with strong growth prospects, a strategy that has produced strong returns. While Equity Residential has repositioned its portfolio into markets with strong demand drivers, it looks cautious on its long-term growth prospects, given that many markets have historically seen high supply growth. 

The urban, luxury end of the apartment market where Equity Residential traditionally operates has seen the highest amount of new supply, competing directly with the company’s portfolio. Additionally, the pandemic has caused many millennials to consider moves to the suburbs, either into suburban apartments or their own single-family homes, though demand for new urban apartments has remained resilient. Equity Residential has created significant shareholder value through development, though rising interest rates may cut into the expected return on new projects. However, high inflation has driven revenue significantly higher as apartment leases are generally only a year long, allowing Equity Residential to push rate growth that has matched inflation. While revenue growth is to decelerate as inflation growth is brought under control and also expect a period of higher than normal expense growth, the company’s funds from operations per share are already above pre pandemic levels and are continued same-store growth to push FFO even higher.

Financial Strengths

Equity Residential is in good financial shape from a liquidity and solvency perspective. The company seeks to maintain a solid but flexible balance sheet, which will serve stakeholders well. Near-term debt maturities should be manageable through a combination of refinancing, asset sales, and free cash flow. The company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition and development opportunities arise. The2023 net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA/interest to be roughly 4.0 and 6.8 times, respectively, both of which are within the company’s targeted range and are reasonable levels. As a REIT, Equity Residential is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by cash flow from operating activities, providing plenty of flexibility to make capital allocation and investment decisions. The company’s credit rating to remain stable through steady rental income growth in its existing portfolio and the stabilization of its current developments, which should allow Equity Residential to continue to access the debt market in combination with equity issuance and asset dispositions to fund its debt maturities, acquisitions, and new development activity.

Bulls Say

  • Equity Residential’s portfolio of high-quality assets should see relatively consistent levels of demand long term from high-income earners and will likely see just a small hit to fundamentals during the current pandemic as most residents have not experienced job losses. 
  • Equity Residential has a history of finding accretive development opportunities to bolster its growth prospects. 
  • While current supply deliveries are near peak levels, rising construction costs and tighter lending standards should lead to lower supply growth.

Company Description

Equity Residential owns a portfolio of 310 apartment communities with around 80,000 units and is developing three additional properties with 1,136 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in the urban and suburban submarkets of Southern California, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York, Seattle, and Boston.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

MYX’s bottom line was severely impacted by investments for US launch of NEXTSTELLIS, noncash NEXTSTELLIS deferred consideration reassessment

Investment Thesis

  • Any stabilization (competition or price) in the generic segment will be viewed as a positive.
  • New product launches and healthy development pipeline.
  • While generic brands are going through a tough trading environment at the moment, the long-term outlook remains positive given consumers and regulators need a healthy generics market to keep the price of medication down.
  • Positioning the product portfolio to higher margin products.
  • Potential industry consolidation on lower growth outlook.
  • Leveraged to a falling AUD/USD.

Key Risks

  • Intense competition from new products. 
  • Lower demand. 
  • New product launches fail to deliver the growth expected by the market. 
  • Regulatory changes. 
  • Litigation. 
  • Adverse currency movement.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Revenues increased +6% to $424.8m, with Branded Products up +40%, International up +27%, Metrics Contract Services up +11% and Portfolio Products flat as strong performance in Dermatology benefiting from 12 product launches offset by continued erosion and underperformance of retail generics.
  • Operating expenses increased +43% to $157.5m, due to the US launch of NEXTSTELLIS.
  •  Reported EBITDA increased +32% to $87.4m, affected by the non-cash NEXTSTELLIS deferred consideration reassessment, stock write-downs and returns on discontinued, unprofitable retail generic products, transaction and restructuring costs. Underlying EBITDA of $45.7m, declined -28% and underlying EBITDA excluding NEXTSTELLIS increased +24% to $89.7m. 
  • Reported net loss after tax widened +26% to $263.3m, driven by intangible asset impairments and deferred tax assets write-downs. 
  • FCF was an outflow of $35.7m, due to earnout payments, primarily impacted by increase in working capital to support the launch of NEXTSTELLIS and the new dermatology products. 
  • Net debt of $317m increased +27%, however, the company remained compliant with all bank covenants, with interest cover 5.1x (covenant >3x), shareholders’ funds of $562m (covenant >$400m) and liquidity (cash and undrawn debt) of $122m (covenant >$65m).

Company Description

Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) Mayne Pharma is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on applying its drug delivery expertise to commercialize branded and generic pharmaceuticals. Mayne Pharma provides contract development and manufacturing services to more than 100 clients worldwide. Mayne Pharma has an extensive portfolio of branded and generic drugs in multiple therapeutic areas, including women’s health, oncology, dermatology and cardiology.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Sonic benefits from cost efficiencies by maximizing throughput through its network of laboratories and collection centers

Business Strategy & Outlook

Sonic’s “medical leadership” model recognizes the importance of the referring doctor as the company seeks to differentiate itself on service levels. Success in the model is evidenced by organic growth consistently tracking ahead of the market, suggesting market share gains. In an industry where absolute volumes are an important component in achieving greater cost advantage, organic growth supplemented by appropriate acquisitions continues to add value for shareholders. Sonic’s organic volume growth in its core laboratories segment has typically ranged between 3% and 4%. The volume growth is underpinned by population growth, aging demographics in developed markets, higher incidence of diseases, and wider adoption of preventative diagnostics to manage healthcare costs. In addition, the number of tests available is expanding. Increasing complexity of tests, such as veterinary and gene-based testing, is also resulting in average fee price increases. 

Laboratory medicine, or pathology, has a high fixed cost of operation and thus benefits from volume growth to drive lower cost-per-test outcomes. Sonic benefits from cost efficiencies by maximizing throughput through its network of laboratories and collection centers. Higher testing volumes result in a lower cost per test as labor, equipment, leases, transportation, and overhead costs are all leveraged. The company has historically been highly acquisitive, particularly overseas. Synergies from procurement and integrating IT are relatively easy to capture, and given its cost advantage, Sonic is well placed to boost its organic revenue with bolt-on acquisitions. The U.S. and Germany are singled out as the most likely sources of acquisitions given their fragmented markets. In addition to acquisitions, Sonic is sourcing more volumes to put through its laboratories from joint ventures with hospitals in the U.S., whose in-house laboratories are typically subscale and would operate at higher costs. Operating capacity within Sonic’s existing laboratories is highly flexible by adjusting operating hours.

Financial Strengths

Sonic is in a strong financial position. Free cash flow conversion of earnings prior to acquisition spend has averaged 99% over the last 10 years and has allowed Sonic to quickly repay the debt funding its acquisitions. In June 2022, Sonic reported AUD 797 million in net debt representing net debt/EBITDA of only 0.3 times, below the 2.0 to 2.7 times range targeted by management, and well below the 3.5 times covenant. A similarly strong cash conversion can be seen, and in the absence of major acquisitions, the company will be in a net cash position for most of the 10-year forecast period. The high cash conversion affords Sonic a generous dividend payout ratio, which is to be consistent with the historical average of approximately 75% of earnings. Sonic also has a progressive dividend policy which is communicated as a minimum of an equal dividend per share to the prior year.

Bulls Say

  • Sonic has a leading market position in most of its geographies and as a result benefits from a cost advantage derived from scale. 
  • On top of the base level of COVID-19 testing that is likely to continue, demographic factors, and the focus on value-based healthcare support global volume growth in preventative diagnostics. 
  • Advances in technology and personalized medicine are increasing the number of complex and gene-based tests available to patients which are typically higher-margin.

Company Description

Sonic Healthcare is a global pathology provider. It is the largest private operator in Australia, Germany, Switzerland and the U.K., the second largest in Belgium and New Zealand and the third largest in the U.S. In addition to pathology, which contributes roughly 85% of group revenue, Sonic is the second largest player in diagnostic imaging in Australia and the largest operator of medical centers in Australia. The company typically earns about 40% of group revenue in Australia and New Zealand, 25% in the U.S. and 35% in Europe.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

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