Categories
Global stocks Shares

Best Buy Co Inc

Revenue was $11.6 billion, up from $8.6 billion in 2021’s first quarter and ahead of our $10.4 billion forecast. Comparable sales were up 37.2%, bolstered by the domestic appliance segment (comps up 67%), which the firm attributed to economic stimulus and sustained spending on the home. Best Buy’s 6.6% operating margin was ahead of the 2.7% result in fiscal 2021 and our 3% projection and reflected an improvement over 2020’s first-quarter result of 3.7%. Fiscal 2022 first-quarter EPS came in at $2.32, well above our $0.90 estimate. For comparison, first-quarter 2020 EPS was $0.98.

While these results were impressive, we are skeptical about their sustainability as economic stimulus payments are set to end and other disposable income options are increasing. Management’s second-quarter guidance indicates a deceleration of comps (17%) and a flat gross margin compared with 2021 (22.9%). For the full year, we expect comps around 5% (in line with updated guidance of 3%-6%), flat year-over-year gross margins, and a slight increase in selling, general, and administrative expense. We don’t plan a material change to our $101 fair value estimate and view the shares as overvalued, given the headwinds Best Buy faces.

One notable takeaway in Best Buy’s favor was the efficacy of its e-commerce and omni channel strategy despite the reopening of physical stores. Sixty percent of online orders were fulfilled from a Best Buy store via shipping, delivery, or pickup in store. Additionally, online orders made up 33% of domestic sales, compared with 15% in 2020. The firm is planning to capitalize on this with its new Best Buy Beta loyalty program, which offers perks including same-day delivery and special member pricing. For Best Buy to remain competitive after COVID-19, an evolving e-commerce plan is imperative.

Profile

Best Buy is one of the largest consumer electronics retailers in the U.S., with product and service sales representing more than 9% of the $450 billion-plus in personal consumer electronics and appliances expenditures in 2019 (based on estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). The company is focused on accelerating online sales growth, improving its multichannel customer experience, developing new in-store and in-home service offerings, optimizing its U.S., Canada, and Mexico retail store square footage, lowering cost of goods sold expenses through supply-chain efficiencies, and reducing selling, general, and administrative costs.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Burlington Stores Inc

As economic stimulus was likely the primary contributor to Burlington’s 20% comparable growth relative to prepandemic first-quarter fiscal 2019 levels, we still call for normalized mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit adjusted operating margins long term. We have a favorable view of the chain’s improvement initiatives but believe the shares’ trading price assumes a best-case scenario.

Burlington’s $2.2 billion in first-quarter sales sailed past our $1.6 billion estimate (which was in line with the chain’s fiscal 2019 performance; we had been more cautious about the cadence of the pandemic-related recovery). Cost leverage led to a 10.8% adjusted EBIT margin, up nearly 370 basis points from the same period in fiscal 2019. Management did not offer guidance, but indicated it plans full-year sales to be around 20% higher than fiscal 2019’s $7.3 billion, and our prior $8.0 billion target should rise toward $8.7 billion, accelerating a recovery we had expected to extend into fiscal 2022. Leadership models a full-year adjusted EBIT margin decline of 20-30 basis points from fiscal 2019’s 9.2%, and our prior 8.7% mark should rise accordingly.

Although we caution against reading too much into a quarter borne of exceptional circumstances (easy comparisons due to 2020 store closures, stimulus, and pent-up demand), we believe the performance highlights Burlington’s greater agility as it executes management’s plans for more opportunistic inventory purchases. The chain was not spared the effects of global freight supply challenges, but we believe its work to use its reserve inventory and large roster of vendors protected its ability to flow product. We do not anticipate the freight issues will linger, with normalization as supply and demand dynamics stabilize alongside the economy.

Profile

The third-largest American off-price apparel and home fashion retail firm, with 761 stores as of the end of fiscal 2020, Burlington Stores offers an assortment of products from over 5,000 brands through an everyday low price approach that undercuts conventional retailers’ regular prices by up to 60%. The company focuses on providing a treasure hunt experience, with a quickly changing array of merchandise in a relatively low-frills shopping environment. In fiscal 2020, 21% of sales came from women’s ready-to-wear apparel, 21% from accessories and footwear, 19% from menswear, 19% from home décor, 15% from youth apparel and baby, and 5% from coats. All sales come from the United States.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Dollar Tree Inc

Our planned change is primarily a result of a higher ongoing tax rate assumption (26% statutory rate from 2022 onward, from 21% prior), as a time value of money-related adjustment mostly offsets the impact of a softer near-term outlook amid heightened freight costs. Our long-term targets still call for mid-single-digit annual top line growth and high-single-digit adjusted operating margins. We do not see a buying opportunity at the shares’ current trading price, despite a mid-single-digit percentage pullback after the announcement.

Quarterly comparable sales rose 4.7% at the Dollar Tree banner (with about a 100-basis-point impact from adverse weather in February) and fell 2.8% at Family Dollar (after a 15.5% increase in the same period of fiscal 2020 as consumers stocked up in the early days of the pandemic). We had expected a 5.5% increase and a 4% decline, respectively. Management set full-year guidance of $5.80- $6.05 in adjusted diluted EPS, including a $0.70-$0.80 freight cost headwind on a per share basis. Our prior $6.28 mark (excluding forecast share buybacks) will likely fall toward the new range, considering Dollar Tree’s heightened dependence on spot freight markets in light of capacity constraints.

Management still expects Dollar Tree Plus (a format that includes a section with certain discretionary items that cost more than the traditional $1 Dollar Tree limit) and its combo stores (which combine elements from the Family Dollar and Dollar Tree assortments in rural areas) to drive growth long term. We view the concepts favorably and think they should allow the company to leverage the strengths of each banner and its purchasing power. Still, we do not anticipate the benefits will include the development of an economic moat, considering the intense competitive environment

Profile

Dollar Tree operates discount stores in the U.S. and Canada, including over 7,800 shops under both its namesake and Family Dollar units (nearly 15,700 in total). The eponymous chain features branded and private-label goods, generally at a $1 price (CAD 1.25 in Canada). Nearly 50% of Dollar Tree stores’ fiscal 2020 sales came from consumables (including food, health and beauty, and household paper and cleaning products), just over 45% from variety items (including toys and housewares), and 5% from seasonal goods. Family Dollar features branded and private-label goods at prices generally ranging from $1 to $10, with over 76% of fiscal 2020 sales from consumables, 9% from seasonal/electronic items (including prepaid phones and toys), 9% from home products, and 6% from apparel and accessories.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Vertex’s Narrow Moat Underpinned by Intangible Assets from Cystic Fibrosis Drugs; Shares Undervalued

The company’s approved cystic fibrosis drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta, which will make Vertex eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population, assuming international and pediatric approvals. We expect Vertex to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other rare indications to spur growth.

Cystic fibrosis is a rare indication characterized by a progressive and deadly decline in lung function, affecting approximately 83,000 people worldwide. Since its 2012 launch, Kalydeco has captured most of its target patient population (less than 10% of CF patients with specific genetic mutations) and has become the backbone of combination therapies, including Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta. Orkambi’s launch in 2015 expanded the eligible patient population by adding CF patients with homozygous F508del mutations, but its uptake was slower because of its safety profile. Symdeko’s 2018 launch didn’t come with any worries over safety and contributed over $700 million in revenue in its first year, targeting the same population as Orkambi plus some. Trikafta, a triple combination therapy, had a strong launch since its U.S. approval in 2019, significantly expanding the company’s addressable patient population to heterozygous patients.

Vertex’s comprehensive approach has already shaped the treatment of CF and earned it a dominant position worldwide. The chronic nature of therapy and limited competition on the horizon heighten the CF market’s attractiveness. Given these positive market dynamics, we think Vertex’s CF program could grow to over $11 billion within our forecast period. Vertex’s pipeline spans several rare diseases, including CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease, VX-864 for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, and VX-147 for APOL1-mediated kidney disease. We think the CF franchise will provide ample cash for the development of these assets and others.

Fair Value and Profit Enhancers

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $259 per share. Our valuation remains heavily dependent on the cystic fibrosis portfolio, including its latest drug, Trikafta. This new triple combination drug is poised to continue generating solid sales throughout our explicit forecast period. We model about $7 billion in cystic fibrosis sales in 2021, driven by Trikafta (in both F508del homozygous and heterozygous patients). Vertex’s complete portfolio of cystic fibrosis therapies allows it to target about 90% of cystic fibrosis patients globally, assuming international and pediatric approvals.

While we give the company’s pipeline candidates fairly low probabilities of approval due to their early stages in development, Vertex is targeting several blockbuster opportunities, which amount to over $1 billion in 2026 pipeline sales. Key opportunities include CTX001 (gene editing) for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease as well as VX-864 for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Vertex is leading the global development and commercialization efforts of CTX001 in a 60/40 agreement with CRISPR Therapeutics. We believe the potential commercial success of this therapy will be a key indicator of the company’s ability to diversify, as management targets regulatory submissions within the next 18-24 months. We also expect the company to continue funding research in cystic fibrosis to develop next-generation therapies for CF, including small-molecule correctors and gene-editing technology.

Vertex’s Narrow Moat Underpinned by Intangible Assets From Cystic Fibrosis Drugs

Vertex has continued to be a leader in the treatment of cystic fibrosis worldwide. Its four approved drugs–Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta–are the only disease modifying CF drugs on the market. The company also holds significant patient share as nearly 50% of patients worldwide are currently treated for CF using its drugs. Vertex’s portfolio makes up the backbone of cystic fibrosis therapy and supports strong six-figure pricing power. After taking a fresh look at the company, we maintain our $259 fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. We view the shares as undervalued, trading in 4-star territory. Vertex is well supported by lengthy patent protection extending as far as 2037 and first-mover status in the lucrative cystic fibrosis market, which underpins our narrow moat rating. Our valuation remains heavily dependent on the cystic fibrosis portfolio, including the latest drug, Trikafta. This new triple combination drug is poised to continue generating significant sales throughout our explicit forecast period. Trikafta will make the company eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population globally, assuming international and pediatric approvals. We model about $7 billion in cystic fibrosis sales in 2021, largely driven by Trikafta.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc’s Company Profile

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company that discovers and develops small-molecule drugs for the treatment of serious diseases. Its key drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta for cystic fibrosis, where Vertex therapies remain the standard of care globally. In addition to its focus on cystic fibrosis, Vertex’s pipeline includes gene-editing therapies such as CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease as well as small-molecule medicines targeting diseases associated with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and APOL1-mediated kidney disease. Vertex also has an expanding research pipeline focused on inflammatory diseases, non-opioid treatments for pain, and genetic and cell therapies for type 1 diabetes and rare diseases.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Avantis® U.S. Equity Institutional

The fund offers broad exposure to stocks of all sizes listed in the U.S. and tilts toward those with lower price/book multiples and higher profitability. To accomplish this, the managers assign weights based on a stock’s market cap and a market-cap multiplier. They apply larger multipliers to stocks with lower valuations and higher profitability, while those with opposite characteristics receive smaller multipliers. This technique has two advantages. It effectively leans toward factors that have historically been associated with superior long-term returns, which should give the fund an edge when those styles are in favour. It also cuts back on turnover and trading costs because a stock’s market cap is incorporated into the weighting scheme. Overall, this is one of the best diversified and lowest turnover funds in the large-blend Morningstar Category.

The portfolio’s emphasis on stocks with lower valuations has been persistent. But its preference for profitable firms was less obvious because cheaper stocks tend to be less profitable than their larger and faster-growing counterparts. However, the fund’s profitability tilt is still at work, even if its holdings, on average, generate lower returns on invested capital than the market. Incorporating profitability paints a more complete picture about each stock’s expected return and should steer the portfolio away from lower-quality names. Leaning toward stocks trading at lower valuations has paid off over this fund’s short live track record. It modestly outperformed the Russell 1000 Index, beating the bogy by 1.1 percentage points per year from its launch in December 2019 through April 2021. The fund’s 0.15% expense ratio lands within the cheapest decile of the category and should provide a long-term edge over many of its peers.

The Fund’s Approach

The fund’s managers start with a broad universe that includes U.S. stocks of all sizes. They use market-cap multipliers to emphasize those trading at low price/book ratios (adjusted to remove goodwill) and high profitability (using a cash-based measure of operating income that removes accruals). Names with lower price/book ratios and higher profitability receive larger multipliers than those with opposite characteristics. This effectively tilts the portfolio toward profitable names trading at lower valuations without incurring a lot of turnovers because each stock’s weight remains linked to its market cap, so weights will change proportionally with price changes.

The strategy takes measures to reducing trading costs. Some turnover is required when a stock’s book value or profitability changes, but the mangers will allow stocks to float within predetermined tolerances to avoid unnecessary trading. Traders can help further cut back on transaction costs.

The Fund’s Portfolio

The strategy’s broad reach and emphasis on stocks trading at lower multiples pushes it away from the largest and most expensive names in the market and improves diversification relative to the Russell 1000 Index. Its average market capitalization has been less than half that of the index. As of April 30, 2021, the fund’s 10 largest names represented 16% of assets, while the same ten firms represented about one fourth of the Russell 1000 Index.

Including small caps expands the fund’s reach and makes it one of the broadest in the large-blend category. It holds more than twice the number of stocks in the Russell 1000 Index. The benchmark does not include small-cap companies, which represent about 15% of this fund. The fund’s emphasis on stocks with low price/book ratios has been evident. Its average price/book ratio has consistently landed below that of the Russell 1000 Index, though it still lands in the large-blend segment of the Morningstar Style Box. Its value orientation also steers it toward cyclical sectors. The fund has larger stakes in the consumer cyclical and financial-services sectors, with comparably smaller positions in names from the technology and communications sectors. The portfolio’s average return on invested capital has also been lower than the index because companies trading at lower multiplies tend to be smaller and less profitable, on average.

The Fund’s Performance

This fund has a short live track record, but it managed to outperform the Russell 1000 Index by 1.1 percentage points from its launch in December 2019 through April 2021. On balance, its value orientation contributed to that mild advantage. Overweighting stocks trading at lower multiples hurt performance during the coronavirus sell-off in the first quarter of 2020, when it lagged the Russell 1000 Index by 3.7 percentage points. But value stocks aided performance during the ensuing rebound. The fund outperformed the index by 7.2 percentage points between October 2020 and April 2021. So far, this strategy has been more volatile than the Russell 1000 Index. Its standard deviation since its December 2019 inception has been about 6% higher than the benchmark, so it slightly underperformed the index on a risk-adjusted basis.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

DWS Global High-Income Inst

Gary Russell has led this strategy since August 2006 and previously ran DWS’ high-yield team in Europe. Thomas Bouchard and Lonnie Fox have comanaged the strategy since 2016 and 2018, respectively, after joining as credit analysts in 2006 and 2008. The trio is supported by European counterpart Per Wehrmann and 14 analysts split between the United States and Europe. The support team is sizable, but with 19 departures since 2016, turnover has been an issue.

The managers leverage the firm’s macro-outlook to shape risk budgeting and industry allocation. Analysts assign a recovery value and probability of default to each bond and loan and look at standard fundamental metrics to assess attractiveness relative to the constituents of the strategy’s BofAML Non-Financial Developed Markets High Yield Index benchmark. High-conviction names are typically sized up to 3%, while names perceived as riskier are scaled down accordingly.

The strategy’s higher-quality and global approach sets it apart from peers. The allocation to riskier bonds rated CCC and below stood at 5% as of March 31, 2021, well under the high-yield bond Morningstar Category’s 13% median. The managers pursue opportunities across the globe, and while allocation to the U.S. represents the bulk of assets (60% as of March 31), the portfolio includes sizable exposures to Europe (19%) and Canada (7%). Low-single-digit stakes in emerging markets round out the portfolio.

Over Russell’s tenure from Aug. 1, 2006, through April 31, 2021, the 6.5% annualized gain of the strategy’s institutional share class slightly edged out the category median (comparing distinct funds) peer, landing it in the top half of the category, while the strategy’s volatility-adjusted performance beat over two thirds of rivals.

The Bond Fund’s Approach

The strategy’s disciplined and conservative credit-driven process has demonstrated its value through time, but the analyst churn casts a shadow on its execution and puts a lid on our confidence level, supporting an Average Process Pillar rating. The team takes a conservative and straightforward approach to credit investing. Lead manager Gary Russell and six other high-yield managers focus on portfolio construction, translating the firm’s macro view into investment decisions. Analysts assign each company a recovery value and probability of default, which helps the managers appropriately size positions. All positions are typically capped at 3% and riskier names are scaled down, resulting in a portfolio that usually counts over 350 holdings, ensuring proper diversification, especially on the portfolio’s riskier sleeves.

The strategy’s global mandate has historically resulted in about 60% of assets invested in U.S. high-yield bonds, with most of the balance split between Canadian and European issues, but non-U.S. currency exposure is hedged back to the U.S. dollar. In terms of credit profile, the portfolio tends to skew higher-quality than its high-yield bond category peers, with a relatively large BB stake and limited allocations to issues rated CCC or below.

The Bond Fund’s Portfolio

The team has expressed its conservatism by favouring higher-quality segments of the high-yield market. For example, issues rated BB represented 57% of this strategy’s portfolio as of March 31, 2021, versus 41% for its typical high-yield bond category peer. On the other hand, issues rated CCC and below totalled just 5% of assets or 8 percentage points less than the strategy’s typical peer. The strategy uses its global team to offer a distinct geographic footprint that separates it from many of its peers. Indeed, its non-U.S. exposure stood at 30% as of March 2021, or almost 3 times its typical peer’s. Developed European corporates accounted for 19% of assets and Canadian positions for 7%. Smaller allocations to Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East stood in the low single digits.

The strategy has had a sluggish start to 2021 owing to its higher-quality tilt and minimal use of bank loans. Rising rates for much of 2021 has prompted many peers to favour higher-yielding and lower-quality assets and bank loans to offset this. As of March 2021, the 41% in B and below was on the aggressive end for this strategy, but its typical peer had over 50% here, including 13% in CCC and below. At the same time, the strategy held less than 1% in bank loans, while a fifth of its peers held about 10% here.

The Bond Fund’s Performance

| Owing to its conservative credit profile and good security selection, this strategy has produced solid returns under lead manager Gary Russell’s watch. Since Russell took over in August 2006 through April 2021, its institutional shares returned 6.5% annualized, landing it in the top half of its high-yield bond category peers. Impressively, the team was able to keep volatility at bay for most of this period, and the strategy’s volatility-adjusted performance–as measured by Sharpe ratio–beat 66% of rivals. During the energy-led credit sell-off from June 2015 to February 2016, a lower exposure to bonds rated CCC or below helped the strategy hold up better than most rivals. Over the period, its 5.9% loss outperformed the category median by 2.3 percentage points, landing ahead of 70% of its distinct peers.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

First Eagle US Value A

First Eagle’s multifaceted global value team runs the strategy. Its co-heads, Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker, each have more than 25 years of investing experience and have cooperated as managers here since March 2010. They also spearhead siblings First Eagle Global SGIIX and First Eagle Overseas SGOIX. Comanager Matt Lamphier directs the research team whose coverage ranges from equities to sovereign bonds and investment-grade credits–all fair game for this portfolio. The manager team added depth in May 2021 with Mark Wright’s promotion to full-fledged comanager after two years of honing his skills as an associate manager.

The team takes a risk-averse approach. With capital preservation in mind, it invests mostly in large-cap equities having what it sees as margins of safety–or prices well below the value of those firms’ average earnings or profitability over a business cycle, their hard assets (such as forest lands), or the strength of their balance sheets. The managers also hold cash (often 10%- 20% of assets) and gold (5%-15%), with gold serving as a hedge against economic calamity.

The Fund’s Approach

This risk-averse approach works well on sibling strategies with broader geographic reach but is less effective for this U.S.-focused offering. It warrants an Average Process rating. Whether investing internationally or in the U.S., First Eagle’s global value team takes an uncommon line. Its managers prioritize capital preservation. While sticking mostly with large-cap equities, they will also hold bonds, gold bullion, and cash. The managers target investments with a margin of safety–that is, a price well below intrinsic value–and assets (real or intangible) that should hold value even during economic distress. The team takes a long-term view, looking at average earnings and profit margins over a business cycle, earnings stability, and balance-sheet health to determine valuations. They often keep annual portfolio turnover under 20%.

Cash and gold stakes are key to this defensive approach. The managers typically keep around 10% of assets in cash–more if opportunities are scarce–and 5%-15% in gold and the equities of gold miners as hedges against economic calamity. The team’s prowess outside the U.S. has served First Eagle’s global and international strategies well, but this U.S.-focused version has struggled to compete. Keeping so much cash and gold on the side-lines has held it back in equity bull markets, and mediocre stock selection over time hasn’t helped.

The Fund’s Portfolio

This portfolio stands out in many ways. With so much cash and gold and so few bonds, equities typically account for 60%-80% of total assets, unlike the equity-only S&P 500 prospectus benchmark and many allocation–70% to 85% equity peers who wade more into bonds. The managers usually own 70-90 stocks. Cash had never been less than 12% of assets at the end of any month in manager Matt McLellan’s 12- year tenure until April 2020; it went on to hit a low of 2% in October 2020 before rising to nearly 10% in March 2021. The portfolio’s gold stake had hovered around 10% going into 2020; it appreciated to more than 15% in July 2020 before dropping back to 10% in early 2021.

The portfolio’s equity exposure is also distinctive. It has tended to be light on consumer cyclicals relative to peers (1.5% of total assets in March compared with the 8.9% category norm) but heavy on energy (7% versus 2%) and basic materials (6% to 3%). The basic-materials stake can be larger if the team is buying the stocks of gold miners such as Newmont NEM and Barrick Gold ABX, but it pared most of those as the price of gold rallied in 2020. Firms with hard assets– such as Weyerhaeuser WY, which owns forest lands, and integrated oil firm Exxon Mobil XOM– also suit this portfolio’s conservative bent.

The Fund’s Performance

This fund’s track record is middling, though a recent category change offers better points of comparison. The portfolio’s gold and cash stakes made it a poor match for its equity-only S&P 500 prospectus benchmark in the decade-long bull market for stocks following the 2007-09 global financial crisis. The strategy’s value tilt didn’t help either, as growth stocks drove much of the rally. A December 2020 Morningstar Category change to allocation–70% to 85% equity from large blend improves the picture somewhat. From manager Matt McLennan’s January 2009 start through April 2021, the fund’s I share class gained 10.6% annualized; that beat the allocation category’s 10.2% average but trailed the S&P 500’s 15.3% and the large-blend category norm of 13.5%. The fund also lagged a custom index approximating the fund’s historical asset exposures (to stocks, cash, gold, and bonds), albeit by a narrower 1.3-percentage-point margin.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Seagate’s Mass Capacity Drives Poised to Capture Demand Swell, but Shares Still Rich; FVE up to $70

We expect demand for Seagate’s mass capacity drives for cloud customers and enterprises to more than offset secular declines in consumer hard drives over the next five years, leading to our stable trend rating and revised forecast for 2% compound annual sales growth through fiscal 2025. Nonetheless, we think Seagate’s recent price appreciation (61% since Jan. 1) has been a case of multiple expansion not rooted in fundamentals, and we view shares as overvalued even at our new fair value estimate.

Seagate is a leading designer and manufacturer of hard disk drives used for data storage in consumer and enterprise applications. We think Seagate is successfully transitioning its portfolio to focus on mass capacity drives for cloud providers and enterprises as consumer applications for legacy HDDs switch to faster flash-based solid-state drives, or SSDs. We expect sustained demand for mass capacity drives over the next five years as enterprises look to capture more data and use a multi-tiered storage approach, implementing both mass capacity HDDs and smaller enterprise grade SSDs as complements in data centers. Seagate has consistently driven costs down for its mass capacity HDDs by advancing to larger capacities, and we think it will continue to do so by leveraging new technologies like heat-assisted magnetic recording.

We note that a potential contributor to recent price appreciation has been strong demand for HDDs related to a new cryptocurrency called Chia that uses data storage alongside computing power to generate new coins. While we think this has led to some tighter supply in the HDD market, we think this is short-term in nature, and pales in comparison to the levels of demand for data center HDDs. Crypto demand doesn’t alter our long-term thesis.

We expect mass capacity HDD demand to offset consumer declines and drive revenue growth over the next five years, but don’t think Seagate’s drives allow it to establish an economic moat. We think HDDs are commodity like even at the enterprise level, with Seagate and Western Digital matching each other’s technological roadmaps and competing with one another for volume—preventing both from earning pricing power. In periods of tight supply and favorable pricing, Seagate can earn excess returns on invested capital, but when the market hits oversupply, pricing falls, bringing Seagate’s economic profits with it.

Going forward, we think Seagate will focus on expanding to new capacities for its enterprise drives, while implementing new technologies like heat-assisted magnetic recording that will help it drive costs down and expand margins. Still, we think technological advancements like these will be matched by rivals, and won’t shield Seagate from cyclical market downturns. Longer-term, we expect demand for mass capacity drives to slow as the cost gap with enterprise SSDs narrows further.

We think Seagate will try to create new growth opportunities through its module-like Lyve platform, which layers software onto multiple drives, but don’t think this business is large enough to offset a secular decline in HDD sales.

Nvidia Corp’s Company Profile

Seagate is a leading supplier of hard disk drives for data storage to the enterprise and consumer markets. It forms a practical duopoly in the market with its chief rival, Western Digital, both of whom are vertically integrated.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

First Eagle US Value A

First Eagle’s multifaceted global value team runs the strategy. Its co-heads, Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker, each have more than 25 years of investing experience and have cooperated as managers here since March 2010. They also spearhead siblings First Eagle Global SGIIX and First Eagle Overseas SGOIX. Comanager Matt Lamphier directs the research team whose coverage ranges from equities to sovereign bonds and investment-grade credits–all fair game for this portfolio. The manager team added depth in May 2021 with Mark Wright’s promotion to full-fledged comanager after two years of honing his skills as an associate manager.

The team takes a risk-averse approach. With capital preservation in mind, it invests mostly in large-cap equities having what it sees as margins of safety–or prices well below the value of those firms’ average earnings or profitability over a business cycle, their hard assets (such as forest lands), or the strength of their balance sheets. The managers also hold cash (often 10%- 20% of assets) and gold (5%-15%), with gold serving as a hedge against economic calamity.

The Fund’s Approach

This risk-averse approach works well on sibling strategies with broader geographic reach but is less effective for this U.S.-focused offering. It warrants an Average Process rating. Whether investing internationally or in the U.S., First Eagle’s global value team takes an uncommon line. Its managers prioritize capital preservation. While sticking mostly with large-cap equities, they will also hold bonds, gold bullion, and cash. The managers target investments with a margin of safety–that is, a price well below intrinsic value–and assets (real or intangible) that should hold value even during economic distress. The team takes a long-term view, looking at average earnings and profit margins over a business cycle, earnings stability, and balance-sheet health to determine valuations. They often keep annual portfolio turnover under 20%.

Cash and gold stakes are key to this defensive approach. The managers typically keep around 10% of assets in cash–more if opportunities are scarce–and 5%-15% in gold and the equities of gold miners as hedges against economic calamity. The team’s prowess outside the U.S. has served First Eagle’s global and international strategies well, but this U.S.-focused version has struggled to compete. Keeping so much cash and gold on the side-lines has held it back in equity bull markets, and mediocre stock selection over time hasn’t helped.

The Fund’s Portfolio

This portfolio stands out in many ways. With so much cash and gold and so few bonds, equities typically account for 60%-80% of total assets, unlike the equity-only S&P 500 prospectus benchmark and many allocation–70% to 85% equity peers who wade more into bonds. The managers usually own 70-90 stocks. Cash had never been less than 12% of assets at the end of any month in manager Matt McLellan’s 12- year tenure until April 2020; it went on to hit a low of 2% in October 2020 before rising to nearly 10% in March 2021. The portfolio’s gold stake had hovered around 10% going into 2020; it appreciated to more than 15% in July 2020 before dropping back to 10% in early 2021.

The portfolio’s equity exposure is also distinctive. It has tended to be light on consumer cyclicals relative to peers (1.5% of total assets in March compared with the 8.9% category norm) but heavy on energy (7% versus 2%) and basic materials (6% to 3%). The basic-materials stake can be larger if the team is buying the stocks of gold miners such as Newmont NEM and Barrick Gold ABX, but it pared most of those as the price of gold rallied in 2020. Firms with hard assets– such as Weyerhaeuser WY, which owns forest lands, and integrated oil firm Exxon Mobil XOM– also suit this portfolio’s conservative bent.

The Fund’s Performance

This fund’s track record is middling, though a recent category change offers better points of comparison. The portfolio’s gold and cash stakes made it a poor match for its equity-only S&P 500 prospectus benchmark in the decade-long bull market for stocks following the 2007-09 global financial crisis. The strategy’s value tilt didn’t help either, as growth stocks drove much of the rally. A December 2020 Morningstar Category change to allocation–70% to 85% equity from large blend improves the picture somewhat. From manager Matt McLennan’s January 2009 start through April 2021, the fund’s I share class gained 10.6% annualized; that beat the allocation category’s 10.2% average but trailed the S&P 500’s 15.3% and the large-blend category norm of 13.5%. The fund also lagged a custom index approximating the fund’s historical asset exposures (to stocks, cash, gold, and bonds), albeit by a narrower 1.3-percentage-point margin.

Source: Morningstar

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.