The cyclicality of the memory industry often led to bouts of weak performance that could threaten the financial health of suppliers such as Micron, thus putting potential dividends at risk. However, management now believes
Micron is enjoying strong and sustainable secular demand across a variety of end markets as well as slowing industry supply growth due to consolidation, slowing of Moore’s Law, and an increasing focus on maximizing ROICs. Specifically, Micron has aligned its capital expenditure plans with stable memory bit supply market share targets while tactically adjusting utilization and holding higher levels of inventory during weaker demand periods. We agree with this thesis that Micron and its memory peers are better equipped to maintain healthy investment levels during downturns as well as a quarterly dividend.
Net capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is now expected to be in the mid-30s versus low-30s previously. Overall, we think Micron’s DRAM business is well-positioned to generate cross-cycle excess ROICs, thanks to a more consolidated market.
Company’s Future Outlook
Our fair value estimate for Micron remains $90 per share, and we think shares look modestly undervalued at current levels. Management also updated its capital allocation plan. While the firm continues to target the return of 50% of cross cycle free cash flow, Micron will now pay a dividend that it intends to grow in addition to a more opportunistic approach to share repurchases In contrast, Micron’s NAND business is likely to continue to face more severe swings in profitability. Given that DRAM accounts for over 70% of Micron’s revenue, we expect the firm will be able to sufficiently fund its dividend.
Company Profile
Micron historically focused on designing and manufacturing DRAM for PCs and servers. The firm then expanded into the NAND flash memory market. It increased its DRAM scale with the purchase of Elpida (completed in mid-2013) and Inotera (completed in December 2016). The firm’s DRAM and NAND products tailored to PCs, data centers, Smartphone, game consoles, automotives, and other computing devices.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
with several years of project backlog, despite Enbridge largely focusing on oil assets, while TC’s focus is natural gas. However, we also anticipate that any major new pipeline project for either firm will face substantial stakeholder challenges from a legal, regulatory, or community perspective, raising the risks and costs.
The most critical differences between Enbridge and TC Energy arise from their approaches toward energy transition. Canadian carbon emissions taxes are expected to increase to CAD 170 a ton by 2030 from CAD 40 today, meaning it is critical that TC Energy, with its natural gas exposure, follow Enbridge’s approach to rapidly reduce its carbon emission profile and continue to pursue projects like the Alberta Carbon Grid, which will be able to transport more than 20 million tons of carbon dioxide.
In addition, Enbridge’s backlog is more diversified across its businesses already, and it already has a more material Renewables business, including hydrogen, renewable natural gas, and wind efforts. This shift is especially the case as a CAD 170 per ton carbon tax in Canada opens the door for potentially sizable investments to reduce carbon emissions.
Financial Strength
TC Energy carries significantly higher leverage than the typical U.S. midstream firm, with current debt/EBITDA well over 5 times. Its long-term target is in the high 4s, again materially higher than peers which are generally targeting leverage of 3 to 4 times. Lower capital spending would move this date forward materially. Midstream peers are largely transitioning to generating free cash flow after distributions or dividends, and in some cases, we consider the shift to be permanent.TC Energy has outlined plans to spend about CAD 5 billion annually on a sustainable basis. About CAD 1.5 billion to CAD 2 billion in maintenance spending on its pipelines and 85% of this is recoverable due to being invested in the rate base. Then, Bruce Power, the U.S. natural gas, and the Canadian natural gas pipelines will consume about CAD 1 billion each annually. TC’s dividend growth remains prized by its investors, and 5%-7% growth going forward is easily supportable under the firm’s 60/40 framework.
Bull Says
- TC Energy has strong growth opportunities in Mexican natural gas, as well as LNG.
- The company offers virtually identical growth prospects and a protected earnings profile to Enbridge but allows investors to bet more heavily on natural gas.
- The Canadian regulatory structure allows for greater recovery of costs due to project cancelations or producers failing compared with the United States.
Company Profile
TC Energy operates natural gas, oil, and power generation assets in Canada and the United States. The firm operates more than 60,000 miles of oil and gas pipelines, more than 650 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage, and about 4,200 megawatts of electric power.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
an experienced investor with more than two decades of industry experience and around nine years at UBS. Grow steers the portfolio from its baseline allocation of 50/50 exposure to global and local fixed-interest markets.
The group philosophy is to find the best return available for a given level of risk, no matter where a bond is issued. Grow expresses thoughtful ideas via an allocation to several internal UBS funds, mostly in the International Bond Fund and the locally domiciled Australian Bond Fund. Further adjustments through overlays shape the portfolio when well-reasoned opportunities arise
Bonds and credit securities can be sourced locally and globally
The fund invests in a number of UBS pooled funds, which can include Australian Bond, Global Credit, International Bond, Asset Backed Securities, Asian Bonds, and cash. The fund uses the split benchmark for portfolio positioning, but the final portfolio has differed meaningfully in the past. This also means that the portfolio’s composition can move around quickly as the team’s view changes and markets move.
As at November 2019, there was around 40% allocated to the international strategy and 44% to the Australian strategy. The fund will also take significant duration and credit bets. During 2014, the fund’s duration position got as large as 1.8 years shorter than the benchmark in 2014 and contributed meaningfully to tracking error. While it was neutralised in April 2015, as at October 2019, it stood around 0.5-year longer than the benchmark.
The portfolio is predominantly made up of investment-grade exposure (typically 60% is in AA and above), but high-yield investments have featured (limited to 30% of the portfolio). China policy banks have been a new exposure since 2019 as they present a relatively attractive yield. As at June 2020, the team managed around AUD 2.6 billion in this strategy.
A balanced and experienced team
The UBS Australian Fixed Income team has been led by head of fixed-income Australia Anne Anderson and senior portfolio manager Tim van Klaveren. They have been with the business for more than 20 years and make for aformidable partnership. However, in October 2020 Anderson announced her retirement from UBS to seek advisory work in a part-time capacity. This means van Klaveren will take leadership of the Australian portfolio management team, and the responsibilities of senior portfolio manager Jeff Grow will increase.
Both are highly experienced with 31 and 26 years’ in the industry. Duties have typically been separated; van Klavaren is chair of the global IG subcommittee and is primarily focused on sector and credit allocation, while Grow is heavily involved in rates and currency positioning. Two additional portfolio managers assist here. On the credit side, Ben Squire leads the research efforts in APAC and has local analyst support. The Australian team has continual access to its global colleagues via the global macro committee, which produces key research for this strategy.
(Source: Fact Set)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Our Opinion…
•New PM has solid investing experience, backed by a wider Fidelity analyst team.
On Mr. Kochar’s credentials and whether he is suitable to manage the Fund, Radhika Surie, Investment Director at Fidelity, highlighted in our meeting, that Mr. Kochar is “an experienced global growth-oriented Portfolio Manager. Ashish joins from Columbia Threadneedle and has over 16 years’ investment experience spanning across management of US, Global and Absolute Return products. He previously managed the Threadneedle Global Extended Alpha, American Extended Alpha, American Absolute Alpha and American Select funds. Prior to his 13 plus years at Columbia Threadneedle, he worked at hedge-fund manager, North Sound Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Ashish holds an MBA from Mason School of Business”. Mr. Kochar is expected to work closely with the broader global equities team and leverage the expertise of the 162 strong Fidelity global analysts
•Undermined investment process
On what will be the investment process which Mr. Kochar will adopt; Ms. Surie highlighted that the process remains to be officially determined (with the Fund’s documents to be updated). However, Ms. Surie highlighted “Ashish is a bottom-up fundamentals-based stock picker. His background in the hedge fund industry has given him a unique perspective, where he approaches investing in public markets like a private equity investor i.e. he likes to take an owner operator approach to stock selection – understanding business model is key. Ashish focuses on three main factors: high return on capital, strong management team and industry analysis which results in a portfolio that has a quality bias. A key metric is total earnings yield. In particular, a focus on operating earnings yield and factors that support growth in operating earnings, whether they come from businesses acquiring growth via factors like M&A; or restructuring via, say, divestitures; developing new products, adding production or distribution capacity. In evaluating management teams, he focuses on management compensation, track record, strategic plan, management accessibility and compensation. At any given point in time, Ashish looks to identify companies that meet a 15% total operating earnings yield potential”.
Downside Risks…
• PM Ashish Kochar departs Fidelity or the Fund or fails to fit well within Fidelity.
• The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation.
• Deterioration in global economy which affect company fundamentals.
• Liquidity risk and volatility risk.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Within months, sales had risen from 60 daily orders to over 1,000 orders. Nykaa capitalised on its success by tailoring products to Indian skin tones, skin types, and weather conditions. It introduced a wide range of nail colours, which presently number over 2,700.
It also introduced customers to make-up fundamentals like foundation, which it now provides in over 1,500 hues.
According to a copy of Nykaa’s draught red herring prospectus dated Monday, the company’s IPO will include a fresh issue of shares for up to 5.25 billion rupees ($70.63 million) and an offer for sale of up to 43.1 million shares.
Nykaa, which began selling cosmetics and grooming products on its website and apps in 2012, surged in popularity before expanding into fashion, pet care, and household supplies.
According to the prospectus, the company had 43.7 million downloads across all of its mobile applications as of March 31. It also has an offline presence in India, with 73 physical outlets spread over 38 cities.
Aside from TPG, the company has investors such as Fidelity Investments and Alia Bhatt, a well-known Indian film star. According to the prospectus, Nykaa would use the IPO proceeds to open new retail outlets, support capital expenditures, and repay debts.
Nykaa’s strategy has been to spend in technology, marketing, and product extensions in order to maintain its position.
Its online offerings, similar to Netflix Inc.’s movie recommendations, use algorithms to recommend things based on what users have already purchased.
(Source: Fact Set)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.