Business Strategy and Outlook:
Pioneer Natural Resources is one of the largest Permian Basin oil and gas producers overall, and is the largest pure play. It has about 800,000 net acres in the play, all of which is located on the Midland Basin side where it believes it can get the best returns. The firm acquired the bulk of its acreage well before the shale revolution began, with an average acquisition cost of around $500 per acre. That’s a fraction of what most of its peers shelled out during the land grab at the beginning of the Permian boom, giving the firm a unique advantage. And the vast majority of this acreage is located in the core of the play, where well performance is typically strongest. That gives Pioneer an extensive runway of low-cost drilling opportunities primarily targeting the Wolfcamp A, Wolfcamp B, and Spraberry reservoirs.
Pioneer has expanded fairly rapidly, with annual production growth averaging 10%-15% over the last eight years. Management still has grand plans for future growth, although it has long since abandoned its earlier goal of increasing production to a million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026. The current plan calls for up to 5% growth while reinvesting much less than 100% of its operating cash flows (a remarkable achievement for a company in the oft-demonized shale industry, which historically relied on capital markets to support its profligacy and is commonly expected to keep destroying value). The remaining surplus will be used to preserve Pioneer’s very impressive balance sheet, and to return cash to shareholders via a part-variable dividend.
Financial Strength:
The fair value of the Pioneer is USD 239.00. The primary valuation tool is net asset value forecast. This bottom-up model projects cash flows from future drilling on a single-well basis and aggregates across the company’s inventory, discounting at the corporate weighted average cost of capital.
Pioneer’s leverage ratios have already recovered after rising slightly in the wake of two substantial acquisitions (Parsley and DoublePoint). The subsequent divestiture of the Delaware Basin assets that were bundled with these acquisitions improved the firm’s balance sheet even further, with proceeds exceeding $3 billion. After the last reporting period, net debt/EBITDA was around 0.8 times and debt/capital is 22%. These metrics should decline further because the firm is generating surplus cash, even after its generous variable dividend payout.
Bulls Say:
- Pioneer’s low-cost Permian Basin activities are likely to generate substantial free cash flows in the years to come, assuming midcycle prices ($55/bbl for WTI).
- The firm intends to target a 10% total return for shareholders via its base dividend, a variable dividend with a payout of up to 75% of free cash flows, and 5% annual production growth.
- Pioneer has a rock-solid balance sheet and is able to generate free cash flows even during periods of very weak commodity prices.
Company Profile:
Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Pioneer Natural Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focusing on the Permian Basin in Texas. At year-end 2020, Pioneer’s proven reserves were 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent with net production for the year of 367 mboe per day. Oil and natural gas liquids represented 81% of production.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook
Fresenius Medical Care treats end-stage renal disease patients through its dialysis clinic network, medical technology, and care coordination activities. Its strengths in these related areas help Fresenius maintain the leading global position in this market. After pandemic conditions recede, it is likely for the company to benefit from solid demand in developed markets, such as the U.S., and even faster expansion in emerging markets, such as China, in the long run. With global ESRD patient growth expected to remain in the low to mid-single digits in the long run, top-line growth for Fresenius to be toward the top of that range after a very weak 2021 and even higher earnings growth compounded annually during the next five years, as the firm wrings out more efficiencies and repurchases shares.
The company’s position as the top dialysis service provider and equipment maker in the world remains symbiotic and unique. Fresenius’ experience operating over 4,100 dialysis clinics around the globe (about 1,000 more than the next-largest player, DaVita) gives it insights into caregiver and patient needs to inform service offerings and product innovation. Fresenius uses clinical observations to develop and then manufacture even better technology to treat ESRD patients. It outfits all its clinics with its own brand of equipment and consumables, which has margin implications related to system costs and operating efficiency for staff. However, other dialysis clinics appreciate Fresenius’ technology as well, and Fresenius claims about 35% market share in dialysis equipment/consumables while serving only 9% of ESRD patients through its global clinics. Especially telling, main rival DaVita remains one of Fresenius’ top product customers.
With growing clinical and payer support for at-home treatments, Fresenius is taking aim at those ESRD therapies with significant investments, too. It recently purchased NxStage Medical for home hemodialysis, which appears differentiated in the industry for its ease of use and physical size. The company also aims to improve on its peritoneal dialysis offering where Baxter has traditionally excelled.
Financial Strength
Fresenius maintains a manageable balance sheet, despite its high lease-related obligations and capital-allocation strategy that includes acquisitions and significant returns to stakeholders. The company receives investment-grade ratings from the three major U.S. rating agencies, which should help it access the debt markets for any necessary refinancing. As of September 2021, Fresenius owed EUR 9 billion in debt and had lease obligations around EUR 5 billion. On a net debt/EBITDA basis, leverage stood at roughly 3 times, which appears manageable and in line with the firm’s previous long-term goal of 2.5-3.0 times, which excluded lease obligations. After generating over EUR 3 billion of free cash flow in 2020 including government aid, free cash flow looks likely to decline to about EUR 1.5 billion before rising to about EUR 2.0 billion by 2026. It is not held the firm will face any significant refinancing risks during the next five years even as it continues to push cash out to stakeholders and pursue acquisitions. While acquisitions remain difficult to predict, the company pays a dividend to shareholders (EUR 0.4 billion in 2020) and makes distributions to noncontrolling interests (EUR 0.4 billion in 2020). It also repurchased EUR 0.4 billion in shares in 2020, and it is alleged more repurchases going forward. With those expected outflows to stakeholders and significant debt maturities coming due in the foreseeable future, it is supposed Fresenius may be an active debt issuer going forward.
Bulls Say’s
- Diversified by geography and business mix, Fresenius should be able to benefit from ongoing growth in treating ESRD patients worldwide once the pandemic recedes.
- Increasing at-home treatment rates could raise demand for the company’s at-home systems and boost how long patients can continue to work and stay on commercial insurance plans, which can positively affect the company’s profitability.
- Through its venture capital arm, Fresenius is investing in new ways to treat ESRD patients, aside from more traditional dialysis tools, which should help keep it at the forefront of this market.
Company Profile
Fresenius Medical Care is the largest dialysis company in the world, treating about 345,000 patients from over 4,100 clinics across the globe as of September 2021. In addition to providing dialysis services, the firm is a leading supplier of dialysis products, including machines, dialyzers, and concentrates. Fresenius accounts for about 35% of the global dialysis products market and benefits from being the world’s only fully integrated dialysis business. Services account for roughly 80% of firmwide revenue, including care coordination and ancillary operations, while products account for the other roughly 20%. Products typically enjoy a higher margin, making them a strong contributor to the bottom line.
(Source: MorningStar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook:
Rio Tinto’s fourth-quarter production was overall mildly softer than expected. The company’s share of iron ore Pilbara shipments, the key earnings driver, finished the year at 268 million tons. Shipments were down on 2020’s 273 million tonnes with headwinds from weather, delayed expansions and traditional owner relationships post the Juukan Gorge disaster. COVID-19 also reduced labour availability. The destruction of the caves sees the major Pilbara iron ore miners facing additional scrutiny around traditional owner relationships. This has slowed output and growth somewhat but has not materially impacted the value of Rio Tinto shares, given the supportive iron ore price has more than made up for the lower volumes.
Aluminium, alumina, and bauxite production was marginally below our full-year expectations. Copper output in 2021 was about 3% lower than expected and down 7% on 2020 levels. Weaker grades and COVID-19 restrictions on labour hindered output. On guidance for 2022, the main change is an approximate 2% reduction in expectation for Pilbara shipments, which reflects continued headwinds from COVID and traditional owner issues. Shipments are expected to be of 277 million tonnes in 2022, up by 3%.
Financial Strength:
The fair value estimate of Rio Tinto has been increased to AUD 91 per share. The increase reflects higher the stronger iron ore futures curve and the softer AUD/USD exchange rate, partly offset by weaker production forecasts. The iron ore price is expected to average USD 110 per tonne to 2024, versus our prior USD 100 per tonne assumption. Shares have rallied about 25% in the past two months and are again overvalued.
The dividend yield generated by the company is a whopping 6.3% during the duration of the 2019 ad 2020.
Company Profile:
Rio Tinto searches for and extracts a variety of minerals worldwide, with the heaviest concentrations in North America and Australia. Iron ore is the dominant commodity, with significantly lesser contributions from aluminium, copper, diamonds, gold, and industrial minerals. The 1995 merger of RTZ and CRA, via a dual-listed structure, created the present-day company. The two operate as a single business entity. Shareholders in each company have equivalent economic and voting rights.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook:
Ampol says the Lytton refinery is expected to deliver the highest quarterly replacement cost EBIT result in more than four years. Regional refiner margins rose well above the five-year historical average as supply and demand fundamentals improved. Lytton refinery production was also strong for the period at 1.6 billion litres. And given the strong refiner margin environment, the company does not anticipate receiving any Fuel Security Service Payment, or FSSP, in the fourth quarter.
The midcycle Lytton refiner margin assumption remains USD 10 per barrel in real terms, around 10% below the fourth-quarter 2021 actual. Material synergies can be expected from an Ampol/Z Energy tie-up. The Z board recommended scheme remains subject to New Zealand regulatory approval and a subsequent Z shareholder vote on the Scheme, expected early this year. The takeover of Z Energy seems logical. The companies have very similar business models, but Z shares have fallen from NZD 8.65 peaks due to intense retail fuel competition in New Zealand and COVID-19 disruption. Ampol can fund the Z transaction within its target 2.0-2.5 net debt/EBITDA framework while maintaining a 50%-70% dividend payout ratio. It will also consider capital returns when net debt/EBITDA is less than 2.0. Ampol’s healthy franking balance and moderate debt has long had investors marking it a favourite for capital initiatives.
Financial Strength:
The fair value of Ampol Ltd. has increased to AUD 32 and it reflects a combination of time value of money, with an increase in expected near-term refiner margins.
Ampol’s healthy franking balance and moderate debt has long had investors marking it a favourite for capital initiatives. The fair value estimate equates to a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 5.5, P/E of 12.2, and dividend yield of 4.9%. A five-year group EBITDA CAGR of 15.5% to AUD 1.4 billion by 2025, the CAGR flattered by the COVID-impacted start year. A nominal midcycle retail fuels margin of AUD 2.03 per litre versus first half 2021’s AUD 1.85 actual, but broadly in line with the three-year historical average. These estimates don’t yet include the Z transaction, but Ampol is targeting double-digit EPS accretion and 20% plus free cash flow accretion in 2023 versus pre-acquisition levels.
Company Profile:
Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron’s until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney’s Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It currently has NZD 2.0 billion bid on the table for New Zealand peer Z Energy.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Business Strategy and Outlook
Adobe has come to dominate in content creation software with its iconic Photoshop and Illustrator solutions, both now part of the broader Creative Cloud, which is now offered via a subscription model. The company has added new products and features to the suite through organic development and bolt-on acquisitions to drive the most comprehensive portfolio of tools used in print, digital, and video content creation The benefits from software as a service are well known in that it offers significantly improved revenue visibility and the elimination of piracy for the company, and a much lower cost hurdle to overcome ($1,000 or more up-front, versus plans as low as $10 per month) and a solution that is regularly updated with new features for users.
Adobe benefits from the natural cross-selling opportunity from Creative Cloud to the business and operational aspects of marketing and advertising. On the heels of the Magento and Marketo acquisitions in the second half of fiscal 2018 and Workfront in 2021, Morningstar analysts believe Adobe to continue to focus its M&A efforts on the digital experience segment and other emerging areas.
Adobe believes it is attacking an addressable market greater than $205 billion. The company is introducing and leveraging features across its various cloud offerings (like Sensei artificial intelligence) to drive a more cohesive experience, win new clients, upsell users to higher price point solutions, and cross sell digital media offerings.
Financial Strength
Morningstar analysts believe Adobe enjoys a position of excellent financial strength arising from its strong balance sheet, growing revenues, and high and expanding margins. As of November 2021, Adobe has $5.8 billion in cash and equivalents, offset by $4.1 billion in debt, resulting in a net cash position of $1.6 billion. Adobe has historically generated strong operating margins. Free cash flow generation was $6.9 billion in fiscal 2021, representing a free cash flow margin of 43.7%. Morningstar analysts believe that margins should continue to grind higher over time as the digital experience segment scales. In terms of capital deployment, Adobe reinvests for growth, repurchases shares, and makes acquisitions. The company does not pay a dividend. Over the last three years Adobe has spent $2.8 billion on acquisitions, $9.6 billion on buy-backs, while share count has decreased by 15 million shares. It is believed that the company will continue to repurchase shares as its primary means of returning cash to shareholders over the medium term. Morningstar analysts also believe the company will continue to make opportunistic and strategic tuck-in acquisitions.
Bulls Say
- Adobe is the de facto standard in content creation software and PDF file editing, categories the company created and still dominates.
- Shift to subscriptions eliminates piracy and makes revenue recurring, while removing the high up-front price for customers. Growth has accelerated and margins are expanding from the initial conversion inflection.
- Adobe is extending its empire in the creative world from content creation to marketing services more broadly through the expansion of its digital experience segment. This segment should drive growth in the coming years.
Company Profile
Adobe provides content creation, document management, and digital marketing and advertising software and services to creative professionals and marketers for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing and engaging with compelling content across multiple operating systems, devices and media. The company operates with three segments: digital media content creation, digital experience for marketing solutions, and publishing for legacy products (less than 5% of revenue).
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
Fund Objective
The investment objective of the scheme is to provide the investors an opportunity to predominantly invest in corporate bonds rated AA+ and above to generate additional spread on part of their debt investments from high quality corporate debt securities while maintaining moderate liquidity in the portfolio through investment in money market securities.
Approach
The fund’s strategy is to generate attractive returns through high-quality corporate bonds and short duration mandates. It employs a bottom-up approach combined with a top-down overlay to generate superior risk adjusted returns. The managers use various qualitative and quantitative parameters and put a lot of emphasis on a company’s management, business, and financial health. They also use the analysis of sell-side research and credit rating agencies to form a view on the creditworthiness of companies but to a limited extent. The credit committee then reviews the rated securities, and the approved securities are assigned credit and tenor limits. While constructing the portfolio, the managers have the flexibility to implement the trades with reasonable leeway to express their views. The risk-management team periodically reviews the portfolio to ensure the managers adhere to the guidelines. We believe the flow of ideas/information is effective and fits nicely with the process in place, supporting an Above Average Process rating.
Portfolio
The fund has a higher credit-quality portfolio, making it more liquid and less prone to credit risk. The fund maintains 100% of its assets in AAA rated bonds, despite having the flexibility to take some allocation in lower-rated instruments. The duration of the portfolio is well managed between one and three years. The fund also invests in government securities based on portfolio manager’s view on interest rates, but this does not account for more than 20% of its net assets. But high allocation is made to state development loans, given attractive spreads with regard to central government securities.
The portfolio of the fund is well diversified. The manager also intermittently holds higher cash/money market instruments to take opportunistic trading calls when markets are bumpy.The strategy, however, is not without risk. The fund may underperform its peers if the market favours high-yielding bonds. Also when interest rates are falling, the fund may struggle to outperform its category peers that invest in a portfolio with a little longer duration.
Performance
Under a short tenure of the fund’s existence (February 2019 to December 2021), the fund’s direct share class has posted an excellent annualised return of 8.36% as against the category average (7.14%). The portfolio manager’s research-intensive approach has helped the fund generate superior returns, placing the fund in the first quartile.
In terms of year-on-year returns, the fund’s performance has been inconsistent. The fund outperformed most category peers by a wide margin in 2019 and 2020. However, the 2021 performance got impacted because of the fund’s conservative approach with regard to its peers. On expectation of normalisation of interest rates by the RBI, the manager kept the duration below two years. This resulted in the fund ranking in the fourth quartile as against its category peers. However, the fund has the potential and could bounce back going ahead.
About the fund
The investment objective of the scheme is to provide the investors an opportunity to predominantly invest in corporate bonds rated AA+ and above to generate additional spread on part of their debt investments from high quality corporate debt securities while maintaining moderate liquidity in the portfolio through investment in money market securities.
The fund follows a disciplined and risk-conscious investment process that draws extensively from the in depth expertise of the investment team. The process is bottom-up with a focus on high-quality business models with a top-down overlay. The team’s understanding of the markets and frequent interaction with its equity team and parent company give it an edge in forming views on the business and creditworthiness of the companies. Furthermore, it has built some additional aspects into the approach. They now do an even more detailed analysis of the group and the promoter-linked entities in which they invest.
The execution of the process has been above average with limited credit risk and a short duration strategy. Despite having the flexibility to invest up to 80% of its portfolio in AAA and AA+ rated corporate bonds, the manager constructs the portfolio with a primary focus on liquidity, avoiding exposure to the below AAA rated segment, and keeping the duration between 1 and 3 years
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.
