Categories
Global stocks Shares

Gross margins should continue to benefit as BBN flows more product through its National DC

Investment Thesis

  • Mandatory product safety standards for baby goods in Australia limit supply sources and provide barriers to entry to international competitors.
  • BBN has the largest presence in Australia amongst specialty baby goods retailers. 
  • Low risk that online sales threaten the high service business model of brick-and-mortar stores to showcase goods and in-store advice.
  • Solid growth story via new store openings (targeting 100+ stores network).
  • Strong market shares in a highly fragmented market.
  • NZ’s $450m addressable market represents another opportunity. The Company will have 2 stores by the end of FY23. 
  • Management is looking at ways to expand BBN’s addressable market from the A$2.5bn today to the broader A$5.1bn baby goods market. This will likely include category expansion and other growth opportunities

Key Risks

  • Retail environment and general economic conditions in addressable markets may deteriorate. 
  • Competition may intensify especially from online retailers such as Amazon, specialty retailers, department stores, and discounted department stores.
  • Customer buying habits/trends may change. Rapid changes in customer buying habits and preferences may make it difficult for the Company to keep up with and respond to customer demands. 
  • Higher operating and occupancy costs. Any increase in operating costs, especially labor costs will affect the Company’s profitability.
  • Poor inventory control and product sourcing may be disrupted. 
  • Management performance risks such as poor execution of store rollout especially into ex-metro areas.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Sales of $507.3m were up +8.3%, with same-store comparable sales up +5.0%. Management noted that 2H new store sales revenue fell short of expectations by ~$10m due to handover delays (availability of trades & delays in material imports). Some of these sales (~$3m) will now fall in FY23. During the year, 45.3% of all sales were either private label or exclusive product brands and grew +18.3% YoY. BBN’s Private Labels 4baby, Bilbi and JENGO brands grew +31.5% YoY and make up 8.2% of sales. The Company remains on target to achieve 50% of sales from private sales.
  • Gross profit of $195.8m was up +12.7% on pcp, with GP margin up +151bps to 38.6% and minimal changes to promotional activity. BBN now has ~80% of sales flowing through its National Distribution Centre and aims to get this up to 90%. Whilst managed, international freight costs and currency impacts are being managed. Cost of doing business (CODB) as a percentage of sales increased by +85bps to 28.6% (from 27.8%)
  • Operating earnings (EBITDA pre-AASB 16) were up +16.1% to $50.5m (with EBITDA margin up +70bps to 10.0%) and NPAT (post-AASB 16) was up +13.6% to $29.6m
  • Operating cash flow improved $14m to $36.1m, driven by significantly lower working capital
  • The Company declared a final dividend of 9.0cps, taking the full year dividend to 15.6cps (up 10.6% YoY). The Board continues to target a payout ratio in the range of 70-100% pro forma NPAT.

Company Description

Baby Bunting Group Limited (BBN) is Australia’s largest nursery retailer and one-stop-baby shop with 42 stores across Australia. The company is a specialist retailer catering to parents with children from new-born to 3 years of age. Products include Prams, Car Seats, Carriers, Furniture, Nursery, Safety, Babywear, Manchester, Changing, Toys, Feeding and others.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

TPW is well positioned to benefit from the structural tailwind behind the migration of offline to online sales

Investment Thesis

  • Operates in a large addressable market – B2C furniture and homewares category is approx. $16bn. 
  • Structural tailwinds – ongoing migration to online in Australia in the homewares and furniture segment. At the moment less than 10% of TPW’s core market is sold online versus the U.S. market where the penetration rate is around 25%.  
  • Strong revenue growth suggests TPW can continue to win market share and become the leader in its core markets. 
  • Active customer growth remains strong, with revenue per customer also increasing at a solid rate. 
  • Successful execution in new growth pillars – Trade & Commercial (B2B) and Home Improvement. 
  • Management is very focused on reinvesting in the business to grow top line growth and capture as much market share as possible. Whilst this comes at the expense of margins in the short term, the scale benefits mean rapid margin expansion could be easily achieved. 
  • Strong balance sheet to take advantage of any in-organic (M&A) growth opportunities, however management is likely to be very disciplined. 
  • Ongoing focus on using technology to improve the customer experience – TPW has invested in merging the online with the offline experience through augmented reality (AR). 

Key Risks

  • Rising competitive pressures.
  • Any issues with the supply chain, especially because of the impact of Covid-19 on logistics, which affects earnings / expenses. 
  • Rising cost pressures eroding margins (e.g., more brand or marketing investment required due to competitive pressures).
  • Disappointing earnings updates or failing to achieve growth rates expected by the market could see the stock price significantly re-rate lower. 
  • Trading on high PE-multiples / valuations means the Company is more prone to share price volatility. 

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis: 

  • Group revenue was up +31 to $426m, driven by an increase in active customers (up +21% to 940k) and revenue per active customer (up +6%). 
  • Revenue per active customer growth was a function of both growth in average order   values and the repeat rate.
  • Group EBITDA of $16.2m was down -21% YoY and represented a margin of 3.8% which came in at the high end of management’s guidance range of 2-4%. Adjusting for the investment of $1.7m in TPW’s new home improvements site – thebuild.com.au – and share based payments, adjusted EBITDA was $19m and EBITDA margin was 4.5%.

Company Description

Temple & Webster Group (TPW) is a leading online retailer in Australia, which offers consumers access to furniture, homewares, home décor, arts, gifts, and lifestyle products. 

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

Arena REIT (ARF) reported as expected FY22 results with the Company reporting FY22 net operating profit of $56m, up +8.4% relative to the previous corresponding period

Close up young business woman holding house model on hands with free copy space. Real estate loan banking concept. Building and construction.

Investment Thesis:

  • High quality property portfolio in childcare centres (85% of total) and medical centres (15%) with strong operating metrics (such as long weighted average lease expiries, triple net leases, and high-quality tenants) and outlook for childcare services and healthcare services (especially with aging population).
  • Potential positive regulatory changes to childcare subsidies (i.e. increase in subsidies for childcare services from ~28hours (or 3 days) to 4 days) and incentives for parents to work.
  • Increasing macro trends of increased female labour participation rates as a key driver for ELC demand.
  • Potential upside from its development pipeline in childcare centres.
  • Solid balance sheet with low gearing.  
  • Strong and experienced management team.
  • Strong tenant profile.

Key Risks:

  • Property portfolio fundamentals risks. Assets in the portfolio are subject to risks from deterioration in the property fundamentals such as cap rates, rents received from tenants and rental growth, expense risks, net asset values, occupancy rates, tenancy risk and costs, weighted average lease expiry. Deteriorating economic and demographic trends (such as lower population growth or lower GDP growth) will impact assets.
  • Development risks. Poor execution or delays of development or redevelopment of existing properties may affect the rental income and value of assets of the Company. 
  • Adverse interest rate movements affect bond-proxy stocks. Deterioration in credit markets may result in changes to the availability of borrowings, impact gearing levels and debt covenants and the interest rates charged by lenders resulting in the Company borrowing at higher interest rates, thereby affecting distributions.
  • Management performance risks. The Company relies on the expertise of managers to manage assets, asset recycling (acquisitions and divestments), and to execute the strategy.

Key Highlights:

  • FY23 Guidance + Outlook Commentary. ARF provided a solid FY23 Guidance, stating “FY23 DPS guidance of 16.8 cents per security, reflecting growth of 5% on FY22”. 
  • ELC sector/portfolio. “Australia’s new Labor Federal Government has committed to further reduce the cost of childcare by lifting the maximum Child Care Subsidy (CCS) rate to 90% for the first child in care, and to keep the recently increased CCS rate at a maximum of 95% for subsequent children in care. The Government also intends to reduce the rate at which the CCS tapers with household income and lift the maximum household income at which the CCS ends from $354,305 to $530,000… Strong structural demand for services and a record female workforce participation rate continue to drive increased long day care (LDC) participation rates over the medium to long term”. 
  • Healthcare portfolio. “Strong structural macroeconomic drivers continue to support Australian healthcare accommodation, including a growing and ageing population and increased prevalence of chronic health conditions. Strong occupancy has been maintained across the specialist disability accommodation portfolio. Healthcare properties remain strongly sought after, with increased domestic and international interest in Australian healthcare property and increasing interest in social infrastructure property more generally”.
  • FY22 Results Highlights. Relative to the pcp: Statutory net profit $334m, up 102% on prior year. 
  • Net operating profit (distributable income) of $56m, up 8.4%, with 100% of contracted rent collected in FY22.
  •  Earnings per security (EPS) of 16.3 cents, up 7.2%. 
  •  Distributions per security (DPS) of 16 cents, up 8.1%. 
  • Total Assets of $1.52bn, up 32% due to acquisitions, development capital expenditure and positive revaluation of the portfolio. The revaluation uplift was the main contributor to the 32% increase in NAV per security to $3.37 at 30 June 2022. Net Asset Value (NAV) per security of $3.37, up 32%.
  • Gearing 20.2%, slightly up from 19.9% as of 30 June 2021. 

Company Description:

Arena REIT (ARF) owns, develops and manages a portfolio of childcare properties and healthcare facilities. 

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.