Category: Technology Stocks

Tech stocks refer to any stock involved in the technology sector, from semiconductor producers to software providers. Tech stocks are often a leading indicator for the economy and the stock market. Technology stocks generally follow the pattern of more innovation in the market & new development of product.

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Technology One Ltd – Critics With Cash Flow Jump

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Since the firm turned profitable in 1992, earnings growth has been impressive, as is the track record of client retention. All this testifies to the quality of the company’s products, the benefits of its consistent research and development spending, and the strength of its staff and management. Critically, the nature of enterprise software and its intricate embedding into clients’ technology infrastructure are such that switching costs are very high, something that Technology One has further enhanced through its end-to-end solutions offering and track record of quality delivery.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Technology One offers enterprise software solutions that are deeply embedded in clients’ information technology, or IT, infrastructure, resulting in high switching costs for users.
  • The company generates revenue from software development and implementation, along with subsequent upgrades and ongoing support, providing revenue resilience and an impressive client retention rate. OAlthough the company operates in a highly competitive industry, its earnings growth track record since turning profitable in 1992 has been exemplary and testifies to the quality of the company’s products and staff.
  • Technology One is a provider of Enterprise Resource Planning, or ERP, software in Australia and the United Kingdom. The company has an excellent track record of consistent revenue, NPAT, EPS, and franked dividend growth over the past 30 years, and the asset light nature of the company has supported strong cash generation and a consistently strong balance sheet.
  • Technology One’s business model captures value in the entire software development and implementation chain. It develops and markets the software, implements the solution for clients, and offers ongoing subsequent support.
  • The company’s software products are embedded in customers’ business operations, locking in existing clients and underpinning recurring revenue streams in post-sales support and licence fees.
  • Cross-selling opportunities remain, as products taken up per customer are low at three, compared with 12 available in Technology One’s enterprise product suite.
  • Skills shortages in the information technology sector mean the loss of key personnel can be costly, and bidding for talent may drive up labour expense.
  • Development delays with new products and failure to keep pace with technological changes could significantly affect Technology One’s ability to compete in the fast-moving enterprise software industry.
  • Failure of the international expansion strategy in the United Kingdom could dent the company’s longer-term growth profile.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Dell Posts Strong First Quarter and Capitalizes on Digitalization-Induced Demand

We are encouraged by Dell’s broad-based expanding addressable markets, as the company continues to benefit from accelerated trends toward digitalization, remote working and learning environments, and cloud-based infrastructure. We believe the secular trends of organizations accelerating the adoption of digitalization, cloud-based infrastructure, and facilitating remote working and learning environments, are aligned with Dell’s core capabilities, and the company is executing well. With shares trading in the mid- to high $90 area, we continue to view shares as slightly overvalued.

First-quarter revenue grew 12% year over year to $24.5 billion, led by CSG’s 20% year-over-year revenue increase to $13.3 billion. CSG continues to heavily benefit from high demand for computers to enable remote learning and work. CSG’s consumer business contributed significantly to the group’s success, up 42% year over year, capitalizing on ecommerce and digital entertainment accelerations. ISG revenue grew 5% year over year to $7.9 billion as demand for hybrid cloud solutions continues to increase. ISG’s growth was led by server’s revenue, up 9% year over year. VMware revenue increased 9% annually to $3 billion.

Guidance for the second quarter includes sequential revenue growth that is expected to be less than the historical 6% increase and a low- to mid-single-digit sequential decline in adjusted operating income as costs return after pandemic-related savings.

Dell continues to place emphasis on deleveraging its balance sheet, committing to a target of at least $16 billion in debt reduction for the full year. Management remains confident that the completion of VMware’s spin-off in the fourth quarter will help the company achieve an investment grade rating.

Dell Technologies Company Profile

Dell Technologies, born from Dell’s 2016 acquisition of EMC, is a leading provider of servers and storage products through its ISG segment; PCs, monitors, and peripherals via its CSG division; and virtualization software through VMware. Its brands include Dell, Dell EMC, VMware (expected to be spun off toward the end of 2021), Boomi (expected to be sold by the end of 2021), Secure works, and Virtustream. The company focuses on supplementing its traditional mainstream servers and PCs with hardware and software products for hybrid-cloud environments. The Texas-based company employs around 158,000 people and sells globally.

Source: Morningstar

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Narrow-Moat Splunk Continues to See Cloud-Transition Linked Uncertainty; Lowering FVE to $164

As a result, we are lowering our fair value estimate for Splunk to $164 from $212, but continue to view shares as undervalued at the moment. In spite of increased uncertainty, the cloud transition continues at a solid pace, with over 50% of software bookings coming from the cloud. We expect sustained cloud penetration, a growing robust product suite, and strong execution to lead to healthy long-term growth.

First-quarter revenue increased 16% year over year to $502 million. After several quarters of declines in the top line as a result of the cloud transition, accelerated adoption of Splunk’s robust product suite, as well as growing cloud traction have resulted in revenue growth once again. As cloud revenue is recognized ratably over time rather than up-front (as with term licenses), Splunk has been facing top line pressure for some time. This has been compounded by falling contract durations as a result of macroeconomic uncertainty and growing cloud demand. However, as we predicted, Splunk is now exhibiting growth in the latter part of the transition, and we expect this to persist in the future. First-quarter cloud revenue grew 73% year over year to $194 million, with cloud annual recurring revenue, or ARR, up 83% over the same period. This contributed to a 39% increase in total ARR. Even though management has withdrawn some long-term targets, healthy growth in cloud adoption has Splunk still on track to wrap up the cloud transition sooner than previously expected.

During the quarter, Splunk acquired TruSTAR, a cloud-based security threat detection and response solution. We believe this should augment Splunk’s security solutions by incorporating additional solutions into its already robust security product set and augmenting demand for the security buying center. The firm also rolled out the Splunk Observability Cloud, enabling businesses to use a unified platform to address a wide range of observability use cases. In addition, Splunk announced the appointment of Teresa Carlson in the position of President and Chief Growth Officer. In terms of guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2022, management expects revenue between $550 million and $570 million, up approximately 14% at the midpoint. NonGAAP operating margins are expected to be negative 25%, reflective of the cloud transition and greater investments into the firm’s platform. While management did not provide full-year guidance, we expect the firm to successfully complete its shift towards the cloud and support healthy top-line growth in the future.

Splunk Inc’s Company Profile

Splunk provides software for machine log analysis. Its flagship solution, Splunk Enterprise, is employed across a multitude of use cases, including application management, IT operations, and security. The company has historically deployed its solutions on-premises, but the software-as-a-service delivery model is growing in popularity with Splunk Cloud.

The company derives revenue from software licenses, as well as cloud subscriptions, maintenance, and support.

Source: Morningstar

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Guidewire’s Cloud Is Gaining Steam; Initial Fiscal 2022 Outlook Is Constructive; Maintain $116 FVE

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Overall, the firm saw 12 go-lives on 30 different products, with cloud momentum continuing. We continue to believe Guidewire turned the corner in terms of product development, customer references, and new deal activity beginning in the January quarter. We also get the sense the services business is once again on a smooth track. Management also provided a preliminary outlook for fiscal 2022 that was perhaps a little light on total revenues, which is likely due to conservatism and is fairly consistent with our model. We expect Guidewire will be the primary winner as the P&C insurance industry continues to modernize. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $116 per share and see shares as increasingly attractive as the software group has sold off thus far in 2021.

Third-quarter revenue declined 2% year over year to $164 million, compared with the high end of guidance of $159 million and FactSet consensus of $158 million. Compared with our model, subscription and support was well ahead, while services were slightly ahead, and license lagged. Data and analytics remain strong. ARR grew 11% year over year to $538 million in the quarter, which is consistent with the firm’s full-year ARR growth outlook.

Based mainly on a better outlook for subscriptions and services, Guidewire raised its full-year guidance to $735 million and $17 million at the midpoints for revenue and non-GAAP operating profit, respectively, from $729 million and $6 million. We continue to see guidance as conservative, especially for operating profit and particularly given upside this quarter, and we note that our model is just under the high end of guidance.

Management also provided some preliminary guidance for fiscal 2022. Key points here include total revenue growth of 3% to 5%, non-GAAP operating margin expansion, and ARR growth of 12% to 14% from the midpoint of the fiscal 2021 outlook. We view this outlook as a conservative preview for next year that is largely consistent with our model–although we did lower our revenue growth outlook by approximately 150 basis points.

Non-GAAP operating margin was negative 9.9% in the quarter, compared with 3.4% last year, which was significantly better than the negative 17.2% at the midpoint of guidance. Higher revenue and a slower-than-anticipated pace of hiring drove overall margin upside. Despite better than-anticipated margins, the ongoing shift to cloud deals continues to pressure margins year over year. Ultimately, we see nothing within results that impact our long-term operating margin outlook and expect steady improvement over time. Granted, we still see continued margin pressure over the next several quarters due to the model transition.

Guidewire Software Inc’s Company Profile

Guidewire Software provides software solutions for property and casualty insurers. Flagship product InsuranceSuite is an on-premises system of record and comprises ClaimCenter, a claims management system; Policy Center, a policy management system including policy definitions, quotas, issuance, maintenance, and renewal; and Billing enter, for billing management, payment plans, and agent commissions. The company also offers insurance Now, a cloud-based offering, as well as a variety of other add-on applications.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co

HPE posted broad-based strength and a bounce back to annual growth, aided by the year ago quarter being the worst impacted by the pandemic. While we expect HPE to benefit with its shift toward offering its portfolio as-a-service and believe it is well positioned in certain higher growing IT segments, core solutions potentially facing strong headwinds makes us cautious about sustained, long-term growth.

Sales expanded by 11% year-over-year as IT infrastructure spending ramped up behind digital transformation efforts. Intelligent edge grew 20% annually, led by switching and wireless strength, and Aruba as-a-service offerings rapidly expanded and have become a meaningful part of HPE’s overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR. High performance compute and mission critical series grew by 13% year over year and ended the quarter with a book of over $2 billion in awarded contracts. Compute expanded by 12% year over year, while storage grew by 5% annually behind strong demand for all flash arrays, software storage management, and hyperconverged infrastructure demand. HPE’s as-a-service shift continues to ramp up momentum, with 41% year-over-year growth in as-a-service orders, and HPE’s $678 million in ARR grew 30% annually.

HPE guided to an adjusted EPS range of $0.38-$0.44. For fiscal 2021, the increased adjusted EPS range is $1.82-$1.94 and for free cash flow to be between $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. We believe that HPE is well positioned for the growth in edge workloads and the need for consistent management across on-premises, clouds, and edge sites. With a growing mix of software and recurring revenue flowing into the business, we view the targets as achievable.

Profile

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a supplier of IT infrastructure products and services. The company operates as three major segments. Its hybrid IT division primarily sells computer servers, storage arrays, and Point next technical services. The intelligent edge group sells Aruba networking products and services. HPE’s financial services division offers financing and leasing plans for customers. The Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale and has approximately 66,000 employees.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Veeva Raises Annual Guidance after First-Quarter Revenue Beat

Commercial Cloud results also benefited from adoption of CRM add-ons, which we see as the fundamental driver of long-term growth for the suite. Vault had a very strong quarter as well, bolstered by its Development Cloud that is composed of an end-to-end stack of modules that integrates different components of the drug development process (clinical, quality, regulatory, safety). The company added a record number of new customers to its Vault Quality suite of offerings. Vault Regulatory and Vault Safety also performed well, adding new customers and expanding adoption of modules among existing customers.

Professional services revenue grew an impressive 38% year over year and despite only composing one fifth of total revenue, contributed to more than half of Veeva’s revenue beat, as demand for Vault R&D services and business consulting was higher than anticipated during the quarter. Management expects service revenue to normalize in the second quarter, as it attributes higher utilization of services to the timing of client project starts. Ultimately, services revenue is more volatile than subscription revenue due to its nature (ad hoc versus SaaS), and we are maintaining our long-term revenue growth estimates for the segment.

Veeva anticipates momentum to carry through the rest of the year and has raised total revenue guidance to a range of $1,815 million-$1,825 million (an increase of $60 million over last quarter’s estimates). Taking this raise into account along with a slight improvement in our short-term operating margin estimates, we are raising our fair value estimate to $305 from $300.

Company Profile

Veeva is a leading supplier of software solutions for the life sciences industry. The company’s best-of-breed offering addresses operating and regulatory requirements for customers ranging from small, emerging biotechnology companies to departments of global pharmaceutical manufacturers. The company leverages its domain expertise and cloud-based platform to improve the efficiency and compliance of the underserved life sciences industry, displacing large, highly customized and dated enterprise resource planning, or ERP, systems that have limited flexibility. As the vertical leader, Veeva innovates, increases wallet share at existing customers, and expands into other industries with similar regulations, protocols, and procedures, such as consumer goods, chemicals, and cosmetics.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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The Descartes Systems Group Inc

Descartes’ Global Logistics Network is a more modern approach to electronic data interchange, or EDI, that ties together the disparate software systems of many connected parties. In doing so, the platform modernizes the model, which consists of a variety of different data formats that were not necessarily compatible. The GLN also provides deeper intelligence than EDI was capable of. This is especially important as shipping regulations become increasingly complex in a global supply chain.

With so many connected parties on the network, Descartes has a captive audience for its software portfolio. Over time, the firm has developed solid positions in niche markets, mainly for customs and regulatory compliance. We also view both the trade management modules and the broker and forwarder enterprise systems as better positioned competitively, with routing, mobile, and telematics operating in a more competitive niche. E-commerce has also become an important pillar of the business, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the network and software modules are sticky separately, we think they are stronger together, as the firm enjoys strong retention rates of 95%.

Descartes relies on acquisitions to expand its software portfolio and help drive growth. Since 2014, the company has completed 25 acquisitions for $840 million in aggregate. Management is focused on areas that fill holes across the portfolio and functionality that customers request. This strategy has been executed consistently over more than a decade now. We think acquisitions drive approximately half of the company’s growth, and we expect several small deals each year. We see acquisition opportunities as abundant in this highly fragmented $15 billion market.

Bulls Say

  • Descartes operates the largest neutral shipping network, connecting parties across air, land, and sea transportation modes.
  • The company enjoys a growing portfolio of software solutions that address challenges specific to the shipping, supply chain, and logistics industries.
  • Increasing globalization of the supply chain drives increasing complexity, which benefits Descartes.

Bears Say

  • Descartes’ acquisition model makes organic performance impossible to parse out and makes ROICs look worse. Acquisitions may also increase costs, distract management with integration issues, and increase the risk of overpayment.
  • Instead of more traditional guidance, the company offers “baseline calibration,” which is a view of what revenue and adjusted EBITDA will be in the quarter if no additional customers are signed and no acquisitions are made.
  • Ultimately, Descartes is competing with the major ERP vendors.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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WiseTech Global Ltd – Share Price Jump

The narrow economic moat, which is based on switching costs, and strong annual client retention rate of around 99%, should protect earnings from competition as the business grows. We expect revenue growth and the scalable business model to drive margin expansion, and we forecast an improvement in the EBIT margin from 19% in fiscal 2020 to 33% by fiscal 2030. However, we expect ongoing investment in capitalised research and development to cause weak cash conversion for the foreseeable future.

Key Investment Considerations

  • WiseTech to continue growing quickly as its global software-as-a-service logistics platform replaces legacy and in-house software, and we forecast a revenue CAGR of 13% over the next decade.
  • WiseTech had an annual customer retention rate of over 99% in each of the four years to fiscal 2016, which we expect to continue for the foreseeable future.
  • WiseTech founder Richard White retains significant influence over the company as its CEO and largest shareholder.
  • WiseTech has a narrow economic moat based on customer switching costs, as evidenced by a very high customer retention rate of over 99% for the past four years. The economic moat should protect returns and
  • margins from competition.
  • WiseTech’s revenue is expected to continue growing strongly over the next decade as its logistics software platform replaces in-house and legacy software solutions. A high degree of operating leverage should create even stronger EPS growth.
  • The capital-light business model should enable the balance sheet to remain debt-free, with operating cash flow covering research and development spending and dividend payments.
  • WiseTech competes against much larger competitors, such as SAP, Oracle, and in-house developed software of the major logistics companies.
  • Cash conversion is poor due to reinvestment in the business, meaning the company must achieve earnings growth to justify this investment.
  • Disclosure is not as extensive as we would like, and the founder, major shareholder, and CEO Richard White arguably creates key-person risk.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Airbus Build Rate Announcement Prompts Us to Slightly Bump Up Our GE Fair Value Estimate

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First, GE has materially reduced its debt burden by $30 billion during Culp’s tenure. While some portfolio decisions like the sale of biopharma were painful, they were well-priced and provide the firm with critical flexibility to shift from a persistent defensive to offensive posture. While GE industrial net debt/EBITDA remains high, we think that the eventual aerospace recovery and continuous improvement initiatives will help drive this figure below 2.5 times by 2023. The gradual sale of Baker Hughes furthers GE deleveraging goals, while allowing the firm to focus on its core portfolio.

Second, we believe narrow-body commercial revenue should recover at a more accelerated pace relative to wide-bodies given favorable domestic over international travel trends. We also expect highly profitable narrow-body aftermarket services will recover ahead of the rest of the commercial aerospace portfolio since this business is driven by departures as opposed to revenue passenger miles. Deferring shop visits can add 20%-30% to airlines’ costs, and passenger survey data persistently reveals a majority of passengers are willing to travel once vaccinated. From this standpoint, GE is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, with more narrow-bodies that are 10 years or younger than the rest of the industry, and roughly 62% of its fleet seeing one shop visit or less. At a minimum, we believe GE has an opportunity to enjoy strong incremental margins on a recovery matching decremental margins during the recession.

Finally, healthcare is a global leader in precision health, with technology helping practitioners gain valuable insights and eliminating waste in the healthcare system. We expect 50-basis points of consistent margin improvement on lower mid-single-digit growth.

Fair Values and Profit Maximisers

After reviewing Airbus’ announcement that it’s increasing production rates for the A320 family to 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023, we raise our GE fair value estimate to $15.70 from $15.30. Airbus may ask suppliers to enable production rates to as high as 75 per month by 2025. However, we would like to see Airbus build a bigger backlog before increasing our forecast to these levels. Even so, we think this supports our view that the back half of 2021 should witness a rosier commercial aero outlook based on the domestic travel data we previously highlighted.

Even with an estimated $3.7 billion headwind from the end of most of GE’s factoring program, we’re expecting just over $4.6 billion of industrial free cash flow. We also model adjusted EPS of $0.28 for 2021, just over the top end of management’s guide. Nonetheless, we still value GE at over 20 times 2023 adjusted EPS, or about 17.5 times 2023 industrial free cash flow per share. In our view, the two most important contributors to GE’s earning power lie in GE Aviation and GE Healthcare. Aviation will have significant headwinds in the front half of 2021. Nonetheless passenger survey data and airline booking data suggest significant pent-up demand. Longer term, we think global middle income class growth will drive demand once more and help GE commercial aviation recover lost sales by 2024 to year-end 2019 levels. GE’s fleet is young and strongly positioned in narrow bodies, which should help GE as domestic travel recovers ahead of international travel. Further, a majority of its fleet is still yet to see over one shop visit. Airlines deferring maintenance, moreover, can add considerable costs to their bottom line.

As for GE Healthcare, we assume key market drivers include increased access for healthcare services from emerging economies and an aging U.S. population, coupled with digital initiatives that save practitioners’ time, while protecting them from risks. Rolling this up, we believe these factors will help drive lower mid-single-digit sales growth, coupled with a minimum 25 basis point improvement in year-over-year margins. For Power and Renewables, we see both segments benefiting from the energy transition, but with the lion’s share of the sales growth opportunity flowing through to renewables. That said, we expect minimal contributions to profitability over the next couple of years from either business, before ramping up to mid-single-digit plus margins by midcycle.

General Electric’s Company Profile

GE was formed through the combination of two companies in 1892, including one with historical ties to American inventor Thomas Edison. Today, GE is a global leader in air travel, precision health, and in the energy transition. The company is known for its differentiated technology and its massive industrial installed base of equipment sprawled throughout the world. That installed base most notably includes aerospace engines, gas and steam turbines, onshore and offshore wind turbines, as well as medical diagnostic and mobile equipment. GE earns most of its profits on the service revenue of that equipment, which is generally higher-margin. The company is led by former Danaher alum Larry Culp who is leading a multi-year turnaround of the storied conglomerate based on Lean principles.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Strength in Notebook Demand Continues to Drive HP as Print Picks Up; Maintaining $23 FVE

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We believe personal computer purchases will contract as more households primarily use smartphones for computing tasks and as cloud-based software upgrades can delay the impetus to upgrade computer hardware. HP’s personal systems business, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations, yields a narrow operating margin that we do not foresee expanding. The company’s growth focus areas of device-as-a-service, or DaaS, and expanding its gaming and premium product offerings should help stem losses from its core expertise of selling basic computer systems. Contractual service offerings like HP’s DaaS are alluring to businesses since IT teams can offload hardware management, receive analytics to proactively mitigate computer issues, and pay monthly instead of facing unpredictable large capital expenditures.

HP’s contractual managed print services, in additional to focusing on graphics, A3, and 3D printers are moves in the correct direction, but the overarching trend of lower printing demand should stymie revenue growth within printing, in our view. HP is combatting the challenge of lower-cost generic ink and toner alternatives in the marketplace. The company is innovating in a mature market, but we believe competitors can mimic HP’s successes or cause price disruption. HP’s scale may enable success within the 3D printing market; even though HP is late entrant, its movement into printing metals could cause customer adoption. Our largest concern with the printing market is the overall trend of screen reading replacing printed pages, and we do not believe HP’s initiatives can offset the macro trend.

Fair Value and Profit Enhancers

Our fair value estimate for HP to $23 per share. This fair value estimate represents a fiscal 2021 enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA of 5 times and a free cash flow yield of 15%.

ur model assumes that HP’s market segments of personal systems and printing decline over the longer term. Smartphones can be used for most PC tasks and we believe that the computer hardware refresh cycle could grow beyond the historical average of three to four years as cloud-based software updates extend the life of existing hardware.

The printing market, in general, is being hampered by the trend of printing less items for economic and environmental purposes. We surmise that HP may garner some printing growth from its movement into the A3, graphics, and 3D printing markets; however, declines in HP’s historical core printing segments may offset any potential gains. Through fiscal 2025, we expect HP’s gross margins to remain in the high teens while its operating margins oscillate around the mid-single digits.

HP’s Company Profile

HP Inc. is a leading provider of computers, printers, and printer supplies. The company’s three operating business segments are its personal systems, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations; and its printing segment which contains supplies, consumer hardware, and commercial hardware; and corporate investments. In 2015, Hewlett-Packard was separated into HP Inc. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.