Category: Technology Stocks

Tech stocks refer to any stock involved in the technology sector, from semiconductor producers to software providers. Tech stocks are often a leading indicator for the economy and the stock market. Technology stocks generally follow the pattern of more innovation in the market & new development of product.

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Technology Stocks

Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1)

  • to the rapidly growth of global cloud and data centres and is in a strong position to benefit from the rollout to new cloud and data centre regions. Key macro tailwinds behind MP1’s sector: (1) adoption of cloud by new enterprises; (2) increased level of investment and expenditure by existing customers; and (3) more and more enterprises looking to use multiple cloud products/providers, which works well with MP1’s business model.
  • MP1 has a scale advantage over competitors. MP1 is over 600 locations around the globe. MP1 has significant scale advantage over competitors and whilst replicating this scale is not necessarily the difficult task, it will take a number of years to do so during which time MP1 will continue to add locations and customers using the scale advantage.
  • Strong R&D program ensuring MP1 remains ahead of competitors
  • Strong cash balance of $136.3m at year end and a reducing cash burn profile puts the Company in a strong position.
  • Strong relationship with data centres (DC). MP1 has equipment installed in 400 data centres, so MP1 is a customer of data centres. MP1 also drives DCs interconnection revenue. Whilst several data centres like NEXTDC, Equinix provide SDN (Software Defined Network) services, it is unlikely data centres will look to change their relationship with (or restrict) MP1 given they are designed to be neutral providers to network operators. Further, given MP1’s existing customer base and connections with cloud service providers, it would be very difficult for data centres (without significant disruption to customers/cloud service providers) to change the rules for MP1.

      Key Risks

  • High level of execution risk (especially with respect to development).
  • Revenue, cost and product synergies fail to eventuate from the InnovoEdge acquisition.
  • Heavy reliance on third party partners (especially data centre providers and cloud service providers).
  • Data centres like NEXTDC, Equinix provide SDN services and decide to restrict MP1 in providing their services.
  • Disappointing growth (in terms of expanding data centre footprint, customers, ports, Megaport Cloud Router).

FY21 Results Highlights

Relative to the pcp: (1) Revenue of $78.28m, up +35%. EBITDA breakeven. Net loss for FY21 was $55.0m. (2) MRR of $7.5m, was an increase of $1.8m, or +32% (annualises to $90m). (3) Customers grew to 2,285, or up 443 or +24%. (4) Installed Data Centres increased by 39, or +11% to 405. (5) Enabled Data Centres increased by 92, or +14% to 761. (6) Ports increased 1,922, or 33% to 7,689. (7) Average revenue per port was down $2 to $978. (8) At year-end, MP1’s cash position was $136.

Company Description 

Megaport Ltd (MP1) is a software-based elastic connectivity provider – that is, it is a global Network as a Service (NaaS) provider. MP1 develops an elastic connectivity platform providing customers interconnectivity and flexibility between other networks and cloud providers connected to the platform.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JPH) Updates

  • Being a low-cost retailer and able to provide low prices to consumers (JB Hi-Fi & The Good Guys) puts the Company in a good position to compete against rivals (e.g. Amazon). 
  • The acquisition of The Good Guys gives JBH exposure to the bulky goods market.
  • Market leading positions in key customer categories means suppliers ensure their products are available through the JBH network.  
  • Clear value proposition and market positioning (recognized as the value brand). 
  • Growing online sales channel. 
  • Solid management team – new CEO Terry Smart was previously the CEO of JBH (and did a great job and is well regarded) hence we are less concerned about the change in senior management. 

Key Risks

  • Increase in competitive pressures (reported entry of Amazon into the Australian market). 
  • Roll-back of Covid-19 induced sales will likely see the stock de-rate. 
  • Increase in cost of doing business. 
  • Lack of new product releases to drive top line growth.
  • Store roll-out strategy stalls or new stores cannibalize existing stores. 
  • Execution risk – integration risk and synergy benefits from The Good Guys acquisition falling short of targets). 

FY21 group Summary

Group sales were up +12.6% to $8.9bn, consisting of JB Hi-Fi Australia up +12.0%, JB Hi-Fi NZ up +17.4% (NZD) and The Good Guys up +13.7%. The Company saw strong demand for consumer electronics and home appliances during the period. Operating earnings (EBIT) followed strong top line growth, with group EBIT up +53.8% to $743m – driven by JB Hi-Fi Australia up +33.6% and The Good Guys up +90.2%. Group EBIT margin expanded +233bps to 8.33%, highlighting the strong operating leverage in the business. The Company declared a final dividend of 107cps (up +18.9% YoY), taking the full year dividend to 287cps (up +51.9% YoY).

Company Description  

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (JBH) is a home appliances and consumer electronics retailer in Australia and New Zealand. JBH’s products include consumer electronics (TVs, audio, computers), software (CDs, DVDs, Blu-ray discs and games), home appliances (white goods, cooking products & small appliances), telecommunications products and services, musical instruments, and digital video content. JBH holds significant market-share in many of its product categories. The Group’s sales are primarily from its branded retail store network (JB Hi-Fi stores and JB Hi-Fi Home stores) and online.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Carsales.com Ltd (ASX: CAR)

  • Heavily reliant on two growth stories (South Korea and Brazil).
  • Diversified geographic coverage.
  • Bolt-on acquisitions provide opportunity to supplement organic growth.
  • The Company can sustain high single-digit and low double-digit revenue growth. 
  • CAR’s move into adjacent products and industries. 
  • Increasing pricing in South Korea to boost margins.
  • Looking to take more of the car buying experience online with dealers (i.e. increasing its total addressable market).

Key Risks

 We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Rich and demanding valuation.
  • Competitive pressures, that is car dealer driven substitute platform or the No. 2 & 3 player gain ground on CAR.
  • Motor vehicle sales remain subdued.  
  • Value destructive acquisition / execution risk with international strategy.
  • Not immune from broader downturn in economy (consumer likely to delay a significant purchase in time of uncertainty).

FY22 Earnings Guidance:- 

CAR provided no quantitative guidance but provided outlook commentary (which excluded the impact of acquiring Trader Interactive). 

  • Consolidated Outlook: “in FY21… While current lockdowns and retail closures are having an impact on leads and private ad volumes, if our experience is consistent with prior lockdowns, the business is well placed to recover all or most of the declines once retail re-opens. On this basis we would expect to deliver solid growth in Group Adjusted revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted NPAT1 in FY22. Depending on the duration and frequency of lockdowns in the first half, financial performance is likely to be more heavily weighted to the second half than usual”. 
  • Australia. Dealer: “Outside the states impacted by lockdowns, underlying market conditions remain solid”. Private: “Private listing volumes are growing strongly on pcp excluding NSW; tyresales has operated at lower volume levels in July 2021 due to the lockdowns in NSW and Victoria”. Media and new car market: “The new car market continues to demonstrate signs of improvement as evidenced by the solid performance in new car sales volumes over the last six months. This has resulted in an improvement in media revenue run rate, providing confidence that we can deliver growth in this segment in FY22”. Domestic Core expenses: “Anticipating core expenses to be higher in FY22 compared to FY21 largely reflecting the absence of wage subsidies”. 
  • International. (i) Korea: “In FY22 we expect strong growth in revenue and strong growth in EBITDA excluding the potential for continued marketing investment in Dealer Direct”. (ii) Brazil: “We expect strong growth in revenue and EBITDA in FY22”. (iii) U.S: “In July 2021, financial performance continues to be strong. We will provide guidance on Trader Interactive at the AGM in October-21”.

Company Description  

Carsales.com Ltd (ASX:CAR), founded in 1997, operates the largest online automotive, motorcycle and marine classifieds business in Australia. Carsales is regarded as one of Australia’s original disruptors and has expanded to include a large number of market-leading brands. The Company employs over 800 and develops world leading technology and advertising solutions in Melbourne. CAR has also expanded to numerous global markets, such as South Korea, Brazil, and other countries in Latin America.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Walmart’s Second Quarter Suggests Continued Strength Despite Normalization

 to last year’s pandemic-sparked sales surge (5.2% comparable growth for U.S. namesake stores, 14.5% two-year stack). While Walmart beat our expectations, we attribute the outperformance to pandemic-related volatility, so our long-term targets of lowsingle- digit percentage top-line growth and mid-single-digit adjusted operating margins are intact. The top-line outperformance extended across Walmart’s segments (5.2% and 7.7% comparable growth, excluding fuel, at Walmart U.S. and Sam’s Club, versus our respective 2.6% and 4.3% forecasts, and $23.0 billion in international revenue against our $22.3 billion mark). 

Recovery in pandemic-affected categories like auto care and party augmented another strong quarter in grocery, where Walmart gained share domestically on mid-single-digit comparable growth. Cost leverage contributed to a 5.3% adjusted operating margin, up nearly 80 basis points. Management lifted full-year guidance, now calling for $6.20 to $6.35 in adjusted diluted EPS, up from around $6.03 (which was near our prior estimate, which should rise toward the top of the new range).

Walmart’s advertising business (Walmart Connect) was particularly strong, with U.S. sales nearly doubling and the

number of active advertisers up more than 170%. Although e-commerce sales consolidated gains (up 6% in the U.S. for the quarter, and 103% on a two-year stacked basis), we believe Walmart is still in the earlier stages of capitalizing on its ancillary online revenue potential

Company Profile 

America’s largest retailer by sales, Walmart operated over 11,400 stores under 54 banners at the end of fiscal 2021, selling a variety of general merchandise and grocery items. Its home market accounted for 78% of sales in fiscal 2021, with Mexico and Central America (6%) and Canada (4%) its largest external markets. In the United States, around 56% of sales come from grocery, 32% from general merchandise, and 10% from health and wellness items. The company operates several e-commerce properties apart from its eponymous site, including Flipkart and shoes.com (it also owns a roughly 10% stake in Chinese online retailer JD.com). Combined, e-commerce accounted for about 12% of fiscal 2021 sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Anthony’s Strong Sales Demand to Unwind as Restrictions Ease

 driven by the competitively advantaged Australian business which benefits from industry tailwinds. ARB provides automotive accessories for four-wheel-drive, or 4WD, vehicles–namely, 4WD utility vehicles, and medium and large sport utility vehicles, or SUVs. The vast majority of earnings are generated in Australia, where sales of 4WD vehicles have grown strongly in recent years. While headline new vehicle sales in Australia have remained stagnant over the five years to fiscal 2019, sales for vehicles in ARB’s niche target market have increased at a CAGR of around 6% over the same time period. 

We estimate this subsegment eclipsed 50% of new vehicles sales in fiscal 2020, up from around 35% of new vehicle sales in fiscal 2014.The firm’s network of store fronts defends ARB’s premium positioning, ensuring end-to-end reliability from manufacturing to fitting. We expect ARB will also need to continue to invest heavily in its brands and its narrow moat by maintaining a high level of expenditure on marketing, research and development. This expenditure is necessary to maintain the firm’s brand equity, and differentiate its products from lower-end competitors, allowing ARB to remain at the forefront of product innovation and quality, improving brand awareness and ensuring a healthy pipeline of new product releases. 

Financial Strength 

ARB’s balance sheet is in pristine condition. At June 30, 2021, the company had no debt and a net cash position of AUD 85 million. This is despite major investment in the Thailand and Victoria warehouses and continued new store rollouts. The firm’s major funding requirements are store rollouts, international expansion, and working capital in line with growing sales. We anticipate the firm will maintain expenditure on marketing and R&D at around 5% for the foreseeable future. We are confident the firm can maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 50% without stretching its balance sheet or compromising its expansion plans.

Profit before tax near-doubled to AUD 150 million as restrictions on international travel and government stimulus increased domestic driving holidays–both in Australia and in overseas markets, boosting demand for ARB products. After falling 14% in fiscal 2020, Australian new car sales have bounced back quickly, up 10% in fiscal 2021. The rebound is more pronounced for 4WD utilities and SUVs (ARB’s primary target market), which grew by 11% in fiscal 2021 after falling just 7% in fiscal 2020. The company declared a final dividend of AUD 39 cents per share, bringing full-year dividends to AUD 68 cents per share, fully franked. ARB maintains a dividend payout ratio of about 50%, and with no debt, we anticipate the firm can maintain this payout ratio without stretching its pristine balance sheet or compromising expansion plans.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Online competition is not a significant threat to ARB’s business. Products usually require professional fitting (often in ARB stores), and the often heavy and bulky accessories can make delivery cost prohibitive.
  • The 4WD accessories industry has few barriers to entry, and with products such as bull bars essentially just fabricated steel, ARB’s products are somewhat replicable.
  • ARB’s range of vehicle accessories have established significant brand strength, underpinning its narrow economic moat, allowing the firm to enjoy pricing power and high returns on invested capital.

Company Profile 

ARB Corporation designs, manufactures, and distributes four-wheel-drive and light commercial vehicle accessories. The firm has carved a niche with aftermarket accessories including bull bars, suspension systems, differentials, and lighting. ARB operates manufacturing plants in Australia and Thailand; sales and distribution centres across several countries. The Australian division, which generates the vast majority of group earnings, distributes through the ARB store network, ARB stockists, new vehicle dealers, and fleet operators.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Netwealth remains overvalued yet well positioned

fintech icon on abstract financial technology background represent Blockchain and Fintech Investment Financial Internet Technology Concept.

The company charges for its software based on the value of funds under management on its platform, comprising over 95% of group revenue, in addition to providing Netwealth-branded investment products, which are managed by third-party investment managers.

Netwealth has exploited the bureaucracy and lethargy of the relatively small number of large and dominant Australian financial services firms to develop a superior investment administration platform that has quickly increased funds under administration (FUA). The company has benefited from regulatory change such as the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms, which require financial advisors to act in their clients’ best interests. It also got the advantage of banning of trail commission fees previously paid by investment administration platforms and investment advisors for recommending their products. Despite being the largest of the independent investment platforms, Netwealth has a number of independent platform competitors such as Hub 24 and Praemium.

Financial Strength:

The service-based and capital-light business model of Netwealth has minimum requirement for debt or equity capital, which keeps it in good financial health. The company expenses, rather than capitalises, research and development costs, which results in strong cash conversion. This means that most operating cash flow is available for dividend payments.

Funds under management and administration (FUMA) increased by 52% in fiscal 2021, the fee rate, or revenue divided by FUMA, fell by 23% due to pricing pressure, resulting in revenue growth of 17%. The PE ratio of Netwealth, in 2021, is as high as 78.0, which makes it overvalued.

From a balance sheet perspective, Netwealth remains in excellent shape, with net cash balance of AUD 81 million at the end of fiscal year 2021 and a consistent net cash balance since listing on the ASX in 2017.

Bulls Say:

Netwealth has only a small proportion of the investment administration market, at around 4%, but has won market share quickly, and significant growth potential remains.

Netwealth has a low fixed-cost base which means operating leverage is high and further strong revenue growth should be amplified at the EPS level. A high single digit CAGR increase in investment administration platform industry is expected which would provide a strong underlying tailwind for Netwealth.

Company Profile:

Netwealth provides cloud-based investment administration software as a service, or SaaS, in Australia via its proprietary platform. Netwealth’s platform provides portfolio administration, investment management tools, and investment and managed account services to financial intermediaries and directly to clients. The company charges SaaS fees based on funds under management on its platform. Netwealth also offers Netwealth-branded investment products on its platform which are managed by third-party investment managers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Tesla Shares Crash as NHTSA Opens Autopilot Investigation; Shares are Slightly Overvalued

Electronic digital interface at a stock exchange or bourse showing the fluctuating prices of stocks and shares on the markets charting their performance

an investigation into Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) autopilot software following 11 crashes from January 2018 through July 2021 where the software was engaged. Having reviewed the NHTSA report, the incidents highlight the need for Tesla to continue to improve its autonomous software before the company is likely to see a large revenue increase from its subscription-based full self-driving software. This is in line with our view that Tesla’s autonomous software will not contribute a large portion of revenue in the near term. While the outcome of the investigation is uncertain, the agency is investigating the software, rather than any hardware on a Tesla. 

Tesla shares were down around 5% at the time of writing. At current prices, Tesla shares are slightly overvalued with the stock trading in 3-star territory but roughly 20% above our fair value estimate. Accordingly, we reiterate our very high uncertainty rating for Tesla.

In all 11 crashes, a Tesla vehicle struck one or more vehicles at a first-responder scene. Most of the incidents took place after dark, where the crash scenes included typical control measures such as first-responder vehicle lights, flares, an illuminated arrow board, and road cones. While the software can take over many parts of driving features for more normal highway conditions, first-responder scenes represent a situation where drivers should likely disengage the software when approaching the scene and resume full manual control of the vehicle.

Company’s Future Outlook

As a result, the most likely outcome will include an over-the air software update, which Tesla already regularly does, and additional warnings about the limitations of driving with autopilot. The company’s Outlook intact at $570 per share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating for Tesla.

Company Profile

Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and mid-size sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light-truck, semi-truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2020 were roughly 500,000 units.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Mirvac Group Ltd (ASX: MGR) Updates

20025825 - closeup image of businessman drawing 3d graphics
  • High quality portfolio composition with stronger weighting towards Melbourne and Sydney urban areas minimizing risk from submarket weakness from Brisbane. 
  • MGR has secured 90% of expected Residential EBIT for FY22.
  • Strong pipeline of residential projects to come, delivering earnings growth by FY22. 
  • Solid balance sheet. Gearing at 22.8% (at lower end of target range of 20%-30%).
  • Continuing recovery in weak retail sales especially for supermarkets.
  • Strong management team.

Key Risks

  • Deterioration in property fundamentals for Office, Industrial and Retail portfolio, such as delays with developments or lower than expected rental growth causing downward asset revaluations.
  • Tenant defaults as the economic landscape changes (increasingly competitive retail sector especially from online retailers such as Amazon). For instance, retailer bankruptcies causing rising vacancies in the retail portfolio.
  • Generally softening outlook on the broader retail market. 
  • Residential settlement risk and defaults. 
  • Higher interest rates impacting debt margins. 
  • Consumer sentiment towards impact of higher interest rates and effect on retail and residential businesses. 

FY21 Results Summary

Operating profit of $550m was down -9% over pcp and operating EBIT of $704m declined -12% over pcp, negatively impacted by lower development profit and higher unallocated overheads, partially offset by growth in NOI (especially growth in Integrated Investment Portfolio NOI following newly completed office asset developments).However, statutory profit was up +61% to $901m and EPS of 14cpss exceeded management’s earnings guidance of greater than 13.7cpss. 

AFFO declined -23% over PCP, reflecting the lower operating earnings together with increased tenant incentives and normalization of maintenance capex. Total distribution was $390m, representing a DPS of 9.9cpss, an increase of +9%, funded from operating cash flows which increased +41% over pcp to $635m, driven by final fund through receipts following capitalization of Older fleet, lower development spend and stronger cash collection from the investment portfolio. Net tangible assets (NTA) per stapled security increased +5% over PCP to $2.67.

The Company extended its development pipeline, ending the year with $28bn across mixed use, office, industrial, residential and build to rent. Balance sheet remained strong with cash and undrawn debt facilities of $867m, investment grade credit ratings of A3/A- by Moody’s/Fitch, gearing of 22.8% (lower end of target range of 20-30%). The Company saw cost of debt decline -60bps over PCP to 3.4%, with management expecting further reduction in FY22.

Company Description  

Mirvac Group Ltd (ASX: MGR) is a real estate investment and development company. The company operates in Residential and Commercial & Mixed Use space within the real Estate sector. Mirvac Group Ltd is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Telstra Corporation updates

  • Solid dividend yield in a low interest rate environment. 
  • On market buyback of $1.35bn (post sale of part of Towers business) should support its share price.
  • Additional cost measures announced to support earnings.
  • InfraCo provides optionality in the long-term. 
  • Despite intense competition, subscriber growth numbers remain solid. 
  • Company looking to monetize $2.0bn of assets. 
  • In the long-term, the introduction of 5G provides potential growth, however we continue to monitor the ROIC from the capex spend. 
  • TLS still commands a strong market position and has the ability to invest in growth technologies and areas (e.g. Telstra Ventures) which could provide room for growth.
  • Industry consolidation leading to improved pricing behavior by competitors.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Further cuts to dividends.
  • Further deterioration in the core mobile and fixed business.  
  • Management fail to deliver of cost-out targets and asset monetisation. 
  • Any increase in churn, particularly in its Mobile segment – worse than expected decrease in average revenue per users (or any price war with competitors).
  • Any network disruptions/outages.
  • More competition in its Mobile segment. Merger of TPG Telecom and Vodafone Australia creates a better positioned (financially and resource wise) competitor
  • Quicker than expected deterioration in margins for its Fixed segment.
  • Risk of cost blowout in upgrade network and infrastructure to 5G.

FY21 Results Highlights

Relative to the pcp: 

  • On a reported basis, total income fell -11.6% to $23.1bn (within FY21 guidance of $22.6bn to $23.2bn); EBITDA declined -14.2% to $7.6bn; NPAT increased +3.4% to $1.9bn. 
  • Underlying EBITDA of $6.7bn was within FY21 guidance of $6.6bn to $6.9bn. Underlying EBITDA, which includes an estimated $380m Covid impact fell -9.7% on a guidance basis including an in-year nbn headwind of $650m. Excluding the in-year nbn headwind, underlying EBITDA declined by ~$70m. (3) TLS FY21 underlying earnings were $1,191m while net one-off nbn receipts were $561m versus underlying earnings of $1,224m and net one-off nbn receipts of $1,075m in FY20. 
  • Capex of $3,020, was -6.6% lower, but within FY21 guidance of $2.8bn to $3.2bn. 
  • Free cashflow of $4,887m, was up +21.1%. Free cashflow after operating lease payments of $3.8bn beat FY21 guidance of $3.3bn to $3.7bn. (6) Basic EPS of 15.6 cents, was up +2%.

Company Description  

Telstra Corporation (TLS) provides telecommunications and information products and services. The company’s key services are the provision of telephone lines, national local and long distance, and international telephone calls, mobile telecommunications, data, internet and on-line. Its key segments are Mobile, Fixed, Data & IP, Foxtel, Network applications and services and Media.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

DoorDash Reported Strong Q2 Growth; Network Effect Remains Intact, but Shares Remain Overvalued

The firm is at the early stages in trying to attract a larger piece of what we estimate could be $1 trillion worth of goods and services by 2025 to its platform. DoorDash benefits from the network effects between merchants, deliverers (or “dashers”), and consumers, plus intangible assets, in the form of data, which we believe together warrant our narrow moat rating. Consumers use DoorDash’s app to order food for pickup or delivery from restaurants. Based on data from Second Measure, DoorDash currently is the market leader in the U.S., with 56% share, above Uber’s 26% and Grubhub’s 18%. The firm has over 450,000 merchants, more than 20 million consumers, and more than 1 million dashers on its platform.

DoorDash has also begun to provide similar service to businesses in verticals other than restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. With strengthening of the network effect, we expect DoorDash to maintain its leadership position in likely a market where there will be only one other viable player, Uber Eats, in the long run. The firm’s network effect should also lower consumer and deliverer acquisition costs, resulting in further operating leverage and GAAP profitability in 2023. 

Financial Strength 

Our $142 fair value estimate of narrow moat DoorDash and continue to view the very high uncertainty rated stock as overvalued. The firm reported mixed second-quarter results with revenue beating the FactSet consensus estimates, while losses were a bit more than expected. While DoorDash and Uber will hold the number one and the number two positions in delivery within the U.S., DoorDash’s stock price may be displaying too much optimism about how quickly and at what cost the firm can diversify its business within and outside of the U.S. market. At current levels, we prefer Uber, as our $69 fair value estimate on the stock represents a 61% potential upside. 

DoorDash’s gross order volume increased 70% year over year and 5% from the first quarter to $10.5 billion. Such growth was driven by an increase in the number of orders (69% year over year) and gross order volume per order (up 1%). The higher take rate resulted in $1.2 billion in total revenue, up 83% from last year. The firm generated a GAAP operating loss of $99 million during the quarter compared with $27 million in operating income in the second quarter of 2020. During the second quarter, sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue spiked to 35% (from 25% last year but slightly more comparable to last quarter’s 31%) mainly due to more aggressive marketing to consumers and drivers.

DoorDash went public in late December 2020, raising $3.3 billion to fund its operations as it continues to invest in growth. The firm likely will not become profitable until 2023. DoorDash holds $4.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt. The firm has access to a $400 million revolving credit facility from which nothing has been drawn.DoorDash burned $159 million and $467 million in cash from operations in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and generated $252 million in cash from operations in 2020 due to a smaller net loss and higher non-cash expenses, especially a significant year-over-year increase in stock-based compensation to $322 million from $18 million. The firm averaged $66 million, or nearly 6% of revenue, in capital expenditures in 2018-20.

Company Profile 

Founded in 2013 and headquartered in San Francisco, DoorDash is an online food order demand aggregator. Consumers can use its app to order food on-demand for pickup or delivery from merchants mainly in the U.S. The firm provides a marketplace for the merchants to create a presence online, market their offerings, and meet demand by making the offerings available for pickup or delivery. The firm provides similar service to businesses in addition to restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. At the end of 2020, DoorDash had over 450,000 merchants, 20 million consumers, and over 1 million dashers on its platform. In 2020, the firm generated $24.7 billion in gross order volume (up 207% year over year) and $2.9 billion in revenue (up 226%).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.