Category: Sectors

Global stocks

The current share price of VRT is largely reflecting the takeover offer from UK based CapVest Partners

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 19, 2022
No Comments on The current share price of VRT is largely reflecting the takeover offer from UK based CapVest Partners

Investment Thesis

Currently under takeover activity, with an offer from CapVest Partners for $7.60 per share.
The Aging Australian population and increased age of mothers (especially with the trend of more females choosing career over family until their early thirties) will provide favourable demographic tailwinds.
Potential accretive acquisitions domestically and internationally. Domestic acquisition of other laboratories will consolidate VRT geographic expansion strategy along the eastern seaboard of Australia.
Earnings increasingly become diversified as international segments are expected to become a larger contributor.
Solid balance sheet with flexibility to execute expansion strategies.
Market-leading position with ~40% of domestic market share.

Key Risks

Current takeover activity does not lead to a transaction.
Regulatory risk as changes in government funding may increase patient’s out-of pocket expenses and thereby decrease volume demand.
Fluctuations in the availability and size of Medicare rebates may negatively influence the number of IVF cycles administered and overall industry revenue.
Weakening cycle activity continues to adversely impact revenues.
Increased competition from low-cost providers.
Weakening economic activity resulting in increased unemployment leading to less disposable income to be spent in IVF treatment.
Execution of international forays goes poorly.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

Revenue increased +1% to $171.3m, however, EBITDA and NPAT declined -36% and -50% to $37.9m and $15.2m, respectively, primarily due to higher operating expenses, margin erosion from cancelled/deferred cycles during the period and pcp including $7.7m of Covid-19 related Government assistance and a fair value gain of $1.6m on a contingent consideration vs $2.6m of M&A transaction costs in current period.
Net debt declined -19% over 2H21 to $76.5m, leading to leverage improving to 1.3x.
The Board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 12cps, representing a payout ratio of ~65%. However, the Board expects a 2H22 dividend to be based on a full year dividend range of 45-55% to enhance balance sheet flexibility for investment in organic and inorganic growth initiatives.
Australia revenue increased +1.8% driven by fresh IVF cycles growth of +1.3%. Premium service volumes (~80-85% of revenue) increased +1.2% with growth in all regions, The Fertility Centre (TFC) volumes (~15-20% of revenue) increased +1.7% (remained severely disrupted by the prolonged lockdowns), Fertility diagnostic revenue increased +8.5% amid growth of Preimplantation Genetic Testing (PGT) activity, and Day Hospitals revenue increased +4.3% amid improvement in demand for non-IVF procedures, which now account for ~50% revenue. Segment EBITDA declined -21% amid higher employee costs reflecting expansion of the workforce and Covid-19 related cancelled/deferred cycles.
International revenue declined -2% and EBITDA declined – 19% with Singapore down -18% (fresh cycle volumes down -16.3%), Denmark down -24% (fresh cycle volumes down -8.4%), Ireland down -14% (fresh cycle volumes increase of +0.8% more than offset by preconception genetic screening roll out delays and constraints on egg donation program) and U.K. down -11%.

Company Description

Virtus Health Ltd (ASX: VRT) is a global provider of assisted reproductive services. The group’s main activity is providing patients with Assisted Reproductive Services such as specialized diagnostics, fertility clinics and day hospital services. It has 116 fertility specialists who are supported by over 1100 professional staff and is the largest network and provider of fertility services in Australia and Ireland, with a growing presence in Singapore. Virtus is one of three major players which collectively control more than 80% of market share and was the first infertility treatment company in the world to float on the stock market.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Tags Australian Market

Global stocks Shares

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (SOL) reported strong 1H22 results reflecting a strong uplift in profit

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 19, 2022
No Comments on Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (SOL) reported strong 1H22 results reflecting a strong uplift in profit

Stock market digital graph chart on LED display concept. A large display of daily stock market price and quotation. Indicator financial forex trade education background.

Investment Thesis

Trades on fair-value in terms of the valuation.
The portfolio is well positioned and diversified, providing access to a range of asset classes across sectors, including equities, private equity, private credit and property.
Solid investment philosophy/approach as investment strategies have delivered above market returns for over 5-yr, 10-yr, 15-yr and 20-yr timeframe.
Strong management/investment team led by Rob Millner, with solid credentials and a strong track record of execution and active stewardship of capital.
Strong track record of paying a consistent and increasing dividend for over 20 years.

Key Risks

Deterioration in performance in investments.
Global and Australian economic conditions deteriorate.
The investment Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation of investments.
Reliance on the investment team and their expertise to outperform investment benchmarks. Hence key man risks and departure of key investment personnel, especially Rob Millner.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

Strong uplift in profit after tax of $343.7m, up +281% relative to the pcp of $90.2m.
Net Cash Flow from Investments of $182.6m, was up +114% (or on a like for like basis, excluding the acquisition of Milton, was up 81%).
Pre-tax Net Asset Value per share up +3.4% for the period (outperformance of 8.6% against market). After tax Net Asset Value per share up +17.7% over first half (outperformance of 22.9% against market).
SOL completed its merger with Milton Corporation.
The Board declared a fully franked interim Segment; EBITDA declined -21% amid higher employee costs reflecting expansion of the workforce and Covid-19 related cancelled/deferred cycles.
Completed merger with Milton Corporation.
Goodwill of $954m was created because of an increase in SOL share price between the date the transaction was announced to the market and the date control passed to SOL (5 October 2021).
1H22 statutory profit was impacted by a one-off, noncash impairment of all the goodwill associated with the transaction.

Company Description

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Ltd (ASX: SOL) holds a diversified portfolio of uncorrelated investments across listed equities, private equity, property and loans. It has a flexible mandate to generate returns by making long-term investment decisions and adjust the portfolio by changing the mix of investment classes over time. The Company is the second oldest publicly listed company on the ASX and has been successfully managed by the same family from the outset: Lewy Pattinson, Fred Pattinson, Jim Millner and current Chairman, Rob Millner.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

Tags Australian Market

Technology Stocks

Driven by strong top line revenue growth, WTC increasing organization-wide efficiencies and acquisition synergies

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 19, 2022
No Comments on Driven by strong top line revenue growth, WTC increasing organization-wide efficiencies and acquisition synergies

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Investment Thesis

Market leading position (significantly ahead of the nearest competitor).
Growing global trade and increasingly globalization of products sold.
High degree of revenue visibility and low customer annual attrition rates.
R&D spend will ensure product/services are enhancing WTC products. WTC’s vision is to be the operating system for global logistics. Having completed 39 acquisitions since its IPO in 2016, WTC has assembled significant resources and development capabilities to fuel its CargoWise technology pipeline.
Scalability of the business model.
Geopolitical tensions considered by management as “tailwinds” due to higher consolidation of the logistics software industry.

Key Risks

Company announces another earnings downgrade.
Organic growth could moderate further, which may no longer warrant such a lofty valuation. However, organic growth has improved over FY19.
Management noted that revenues from recent acquisitions actually declined and offered little margin. This means the return from these acquisitions could take longer than management’s expectations.
Competitive threat (new product/technological advancements).
Disruption to technology (data breach).
Adverse currency movements.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

1H22 Total Revenue of $281.0m, up +18% (+22% ex FX) on 1H21.
CargoWise revenue was up +29% (+33% ex FX) to $193.0m, driven by Large Global Freight Forwarder rollouts, new customer wins, price and increased existing customer usage.
Acquisition (non-CargoWise) revenue of $87.9m, down -1% (up +2% ex FX).
Market penetration momentum continuing – two new global rollouts secured in 1H22 – FedEx and Access World – and Brink’s Global Services (Brink’s) signed post 31 December 2021.
Ongoing product development delivered 589 CargoWise new product features and enhancements and continued expansion of the CargoWise ecosystem.
Organization-wide efficiency and acquisition synergy program well-progressed – $20.2m of gross cost reductions in 1H22 (net benefit $19.7m).
EBITDA of $137.7m up +54% driven by revenue growth and cost reductions. Margin of 49%, up 12 bps. CargoWise’s 1H22 EBITDA margin of 58% represents an increase of 4pp on 1H21.
Underlying NPAT of $77.3m, up +77%.
WTC generated strong free cash flow of $90.3m, up +85%.
WTC retained a strong balance sheet, with cash as at 31 December 2021 of $380.3m and no outstanding debt excluding lease liabilities. WTC has an undrawn, unsecured, four-year, $225m, bi-lateral debt facility, to fund future growth.
WTC’s Board declared a fully franked interim ordinary dividend of 4.75cps, which equates to payout ratio of 20% of Underlying NPAT.

Company Description

WiseTech Global (WTC), founded in October 1994, is a leading provider of software to the logistics services industry globally. WTC develops, sells and implements software solutions that enable logistics service providers to facilitate the movement and storage of goods, domestically and internationally. WTC’s software assists their customers to better address and adapt to the complexities of the logistics industry while increasing their productivity, reducing costs and mitigating risks. WTC services over 6,000 customers across more than 115 countries with offices in Australia, New Zealand, China, Singapore, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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Dividend Stocks

Mizuho expanded its overseas business quite rapidly in the first half of the past decade

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 13, 2022
No Comments on Mizuho expanded its overseas business quite rapidly in the first half of the past decade

Business Strategy & Outlook

Mizuho Financial Group is one of Japan’s three largest banking groups, with a 6.9% share of domestic loans and 8.5% share of deposits as of March 2022. In Japan, the environment for banks has been tough for years and to remain so. A long-running deflationary environment in the country led to persistently low demand for loans, with the loan/deposit ratio having declined from 74% in 2000 to around 56% at present. The debt/equity ratio for Japan’s approximately 1 million business corporations declined from more than 2 times prior to the late 1990s to a reasonably healthy 0.66 times in 2019 as borrowers prioritized paying down existing debt rather than taking out new loans for investment, but credit costs may increase moderately in the coming years after many corporations increased their borrowing in 2020 and as the pandemic affected some firms’ business models. Mizuho expanded its overseas business quite rapidly in the first half of the past decade, with overseas loans rising from 12.6% of total loans in March 2011 to 29.4% by March 2016. Mizuho has since moderated the overseas growth in order to better manage risks and conserve capital, and overseas loans comprised 33.8% of total loans as of March 2022. Compared with its Japanese megabank rivals, which have taken control of local banks in the U.S. or Southeast Asia, Mizuho’s only such investment overseas is a 15% stake in Vietnam’s Vietcombank and a 7.5% stake in Vietnamese digital-payment firm M-Service. Almost all of its overseas operations are done through the main Mizuho entities (Mizuho Bank, Mizuho Trust, and Mizuho Securities). Mizuho also lacks the large consumer finance, credit card, and leasing operations of its two rivals, leaving it dependent on banking, securities and asset management alone for future returns. The need for massive expense reductions is thus even more important for Mizuho’s future profitability than it is for its two megabank rivals. However, the lack of existing businesses could ironically help Mizuho adapt more flexibly than its rivals if digitalization increasingly disrupts businesses such as credit card payments.

Financial Strengths

As of September 2022, Mizuho Financial Group’s common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 11.4%, slightly below the average for global systemically important banks. Mizuho’s density of risk-weighted assets to total assets is also lower than that of many other G-SIBs, particularly those headquartered in the U.S., and its ratio of Tier 1 capital to total leverage exposure of 4.22% is well below the G-SIB average of around 6.0%. This presents a constraint on Mizuho’s ability to increase profits by expanding balance sheet size. Instead, the group has no choice but to improve efficiency with the current size of assets, or preferably with a smaller balance sheet. Mizuho’s liquidity coverage ratio of 126% compares with the G-SIB average of 134%. The LCR does not fully distinguish between currencies, and while Japanese banks’ yen liquidity is very strong, they depend on access to U.S. dollar funding for their large amount of U.S. dollar assets. Foreign-currency deposits of USD 227 billion covered 77% of Mizuho’s nonyen loans of USD 296 billion as of September 2022. For the remainder, Mizuho has issued large bonds in U.S. dollars and euros through the holding company, as well as bonds in CNY and AUD through Mizuho Bank.

Bulls Say

Mizuho has outlined aggressive cost-cutting plans that could surprise market expectations to the upside.
After years of system troubles and long delays in integrating its predecessor banks, Mizuho has left expectations at such a low level that there is room for upside surprise as long as the group just performs reasonably well.
Mizuho’s lack of a strong consumer finance or credit card business could ironically help it adapt more flexibly to disruptive innovation in this area.

Company Description

Mizuho Financial Group is roughly tied with megabank peer Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group for the status as Japan’s second largest bank after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. As of March 2021, Mizuho’s market share of domestic loans was 6.9%, compared with 7.0% for SMFG and 8.3% for MUFG. In Japan, Mizuho has more of a corporate focus than SMFG, which has a larger retail business. Its overseas weighting is slightly smaller than that of MUFG. Unlike its two Japanese megabank peers that own foreign banks outright or hold non controlling stakes in local banks overseas, Mizuho expanded in recent years beyond its traditional Japanese borrowers, mainly through its core banking and securities units, focusing on the financing needs of global multinational corporations.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Tags Street Talks

Technology Stocks

Elastic’s strong net retention rate—close to 130%—is evidence of the upselling strategy’s success

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 13, 2022
No Comments on Elastic’s strong net retention rate—close to 130%—is evidence of the upselling strategy’s success

Business Strategy & Outlook

Elastic’s prospects in the full-stack monitoring, security, and search markets looks positive. The firm’s products benefit from secular tailwinds driving an accelerating increase in data for enterprises to secure, search through, and monitor. The firm’s sticky product portfolio, broad swath of products that enable clients to conduct a variety of mission-critical tasks, and increased penetration in the enterprise market have enabled Elastic to form a narrow economic moat around its business. As the volume of data increases, so does its impact on an enterprise’s decisions. More data brings greater complexity, nefarious activity, and search-oriented use cases. This increase in data, and the corresponding complexity, is driven by an uptick in cloud migrations and digital transformations. These secular trends enable a long runway for growth for Elastic. Elastic’s products are critical for its clients as they allow them to gather insights, detect and triage nefarious activity, and improve their IT stack efficiency. While Elastic is well entrenched in search, full-stack monitoring and analysis and security are the key growth verticals for the firm. Elastic has plenty of greenfield opportunities to exploit in these two verticals in the near to medium term. To this end, the firm has been investing heavily in its sales and research divisions, a strategy that is sound. In addition, with different use cases enabled by its three end markets, Elastic has a big cross-selling opportunity ahead of it.

As Elastic lands and expands its customer base, the benefits of the cross-selling opportunity at play. As a client adopts a multiproduct offering, Elastic’s entrenchment in that client’s ecosystem increases. This entrenchment subsequently results in a higher client lifetime value. The firm’s strong net retention rate—close to 130%—is evidence of the upselling strategy’s success. With the ability to consistently add new customers and subsequently upsell them, Elastic has strong long-term growth prospects.

Financial Strengths

Elastic’s financial position is healthy. Elastic ended fiscal 2022 with more than $860 million in cash and cash equivalents. While the firm has since taken on debt of more than $500 million recently, Elastic’s cash generation over the forecast will far outstrip its commitments over the same period. Elastic is to generate strong free cash flow margins, increasing its operating leverage while driving its top line forward. This trend is typical within the high-growth software space as investments in sales and research in the near term reap rewards in terms of durable cash flows in the later years. There’s no material change in Elastic’s capital structure. The firm is to raise capital by either issuing more equity or taking advantage of low interest rates and issuing debt.

Bulls Say

Elastic has strong secular tailwinds as the FSMA and security markets are expected to grow rapidly.
Elastic’s multi prong product strategy, including its search, security, and FSMA offerings, can offer different points of entry into potential clients’ IT ecosystems.
Elastic is competing in markets that are filled with greenfield opportunities.

Company Description

Elastic is a software company based in Mountain View, California, focusing on search-adjacent products. Its search engine allows it to process both structured and unstructured data while gleaning insights from that data. The firm’s primary focus is on enterprise search, observability, and security.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

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Dividend Stocks

Home Depot should continue to capture sales growth, bolstered by an aging housing stock

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 13, 2022
No Comments on Home Depot should continue to capture sales growth, bolstered by an aging housing stock

Business Strategy & Outlook

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, on track to deliver $157 billion in revenue in 2022. It continues to benefit from healthy long-term housing dynamics and improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating due to its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying the modest margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. The success of ongoing initiatives should allow for modest operating margin expansion above pre pandemic levels longer term, despite inflationary pressures. Home Depot should continue to capture sales growth, bolstered by an aging housing stock, a shortage in home inventory, and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for topline growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (through the acquisition of HD Supply).

Expansion of newer categories (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) as well as existing ones (such as appliances) could also drive demand. Perpetual improvements in the omnichannel experience should support the firm’s competitive position, even as existing-home sales and turnover become more volatile. The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 15.2% and 34.9%, respectively, in 2021 (both quantitative peaks). Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric remaining above 15% on average over the next decade.

Financial Strengths

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Home Depot has had no concerns tapping the credit markets. The company raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. In 2021, Home Depot issued another $3 billion in debt. This led the firm to end fiscal 2021 with a total debt load of around $40 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 1.04. There aren’t any concerns about near-term cash constraints as forward debt maturities are staggered, with just $1.2 billion of short and long-term debt maturing in the next 12 months (from Oct. 30, 2022). Moreover, EBIT is forecast to cover interest expense 15 times at the end of 2022. Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. Given Home Depot’s ability to generate tremendous free cash flow to equity, the management has no problem facilitating dividend payments and remaining near its long-term dividend payout ratio target of 55%. Given the outsize performance despite COVID-19, share repurchases will continue, with the new $15 billion share repurchase program authorized in August 2022.

Bulls Say

Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should increase productivity and grow domestic share in a stable housing market, helping stimulate sales and protect margins.
The company has returned $67 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years, above 20% of its market cap. Home Depot would be returning another $90 billion to shareholders over the next five years.
The addressable MRO market is around $100 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up a low-double-digit share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Company Description

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating more than 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply (2020). The addition of the Company Store brought textile exposure to Home Depot’s lineup.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

Tags Top Stocks

Dividend Stocks

Mizuho expanded its overseas business quite rapidly in the first half of the past decade

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 13, 2022
No Comments on Mizuho expanded its overseas business quite rapidly in the first half of the past decade

Business Strategy & Outlook

Financial Strengths

Bulls Say

Mizuho has outlined aggressive cost-cutting plans that could surprise market expectations to the upside.
After years of system troubles and long delays in integrating its predecessor banks, Mizuho has left expectations at such a low level that there is room for upside surprise as long as the group just performs reasonably well.
Mizuho’s lack of a strong consumer finance or credit card business could ironically help it adapt more flexibly to disruptive innovation in this area.

Company Description

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

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Technology Stocks

Pact Group (PGH) reported disappointing FY22 results, despite the Company seeing increasing demand for recycled content

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 10, 2022
No Comments on Pact Group (PGH) reported disappointing FY22 results, despite the Company seeing increasing demand for recycled content

Investment Thesis

Solid market share in Australia and growing presence in Asia. Hence provides attractive exposure to both developed and emerging markets’ growth.
Valuation is fair on the forward estimates.
Management appears to be less focused on acquired growth going forward, which means there is a less of a chance for the Company to make a value destructive acquisition.
Reinstatement of the dividend is positive and highlights management’s confidence in future earnings growth.
Focusing on sustainable packaging in an environmentally friendly market.

Key Risks

Competitive pressures leading to further margin erosion.
Input cost pressures which the company is unable to pass on to customers.
Deterioration in economic conditions in Australia and Asia.
Emerging markets risk.
Poor acquisitions or not achieving synergy targets as PGH moves to reduce its dependency on packaging for food, dairy, and beverage clients to more high growth sectors such as healthcare.
Adverse currency movements (purchased raw materials in U.S. dollars)

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

Revenue of $1,838m was up +4%, driven by solid demand for sustainable packaging and recycled products.
FY22 underlying EBIT was in line with guidance provided at 1H22. However, underlying EBIT of $156m, was down -15%, with EBIT from Packaging & Sustainability of $110m, up +5% more than offset by declines in Material Handling & Pooling underlying EBIT of $50m, down -8%, and Contract Manufacturing underlying EBIT, which saw a loss of -$4m (versus $24m in the pcp).
Underlying NPAT of $70m was down -25% largely due to the absence of one-off revenue in the Contract Manufacturing segment recorded in FY21. Reporting NPAT of $12m was significantly down – 86%.
The Board declared a final dividend of 1.5cps, franked to 65%, which brings FY22 total dividend to 5cps, down -55% and equates to a payout ratio of 25% of underlying NPAT.
PGH acquired Synergy Packaging for ~$20m which adds to sustainable health and beauty packaging.
PGH began operations at Circular Plastics Australia (PET) recycling facility in Albury-Wodonga with international food grade certification in place and producing recycled resin for joint venture partners.
PGH maintained gearing of 2.7x, within its target range, with net debt at $561m, $24m lower than pcp, and operating cash conversion of $253m.

Company Description

Pact Group Holdings Ltd (PGH) was established by Raphael Geminder in 2002 (Mr. Geminder remains a major shareholder with ~44% and is the brother-in-law of Anthony Pratt, Chairman of competitor Visy). Pact has operations throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia and conceives, designs, and manufactures packaging (plastic resin and steel) for many products in the food (especially dairy and beverage), chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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Dividend Stocks

PPT will not be raising equity to fund any portion of the cash consideration

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 10, 2022
No Comments on PPT will not be raising equity to fund any portion of the cash consideration

Investment Thesis

Trades below valuation and represents >10% upside to current share price.
PPT is a diversified business with earnings derived from trustee services, financial advice and funds management.
PPT has an opportunity to increase FUM via its Global Share Fund, which has a strong performance track record over 1, 3 and 5-years and significant capacity, whilst PPT continues to maintain FUM in Australia equities which is near maximum capacity. This equates to flattish earnings growth unless PPT can attract FUM into international equities, credit and multi-asset strategies (and other incubated funds).
Retail and institutional inflow of funds is expected to be solid especially from positive compulsory superannuation trend and flow from Perpetual Private.
Potential for Perpetual Private to drive growth in funds under management and funds under advice.
Cost improvements in Perpetual Private and Corporate Trust.

Key Risks

Any significant underperformance across funds.
Significant key man risk around key management or investment management personnel.
Potential change in regulation (superannuation) with more focus on retirement income (annuities) than wealth creation.
Average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) continues to be stable at ~70 bps but there are risks to the downside from pressures on fees.
More regulation and compliance costs associated with the provision of financial advice and Perpetual Private.
Exposure to industry funds which are building in-house capabilities (~15-20% of total PPT funds under management).

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

The company entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire 100% of shares in Pendal Group, targeted to be implemented by late CY22/early CY23 and Pendal shareholders receiving 1 PPT share for every 7.50 Pendal shares plus $1.976 cash/Pendal share (implying an offer price of $6.54/Pendal share), with acquisition expected.
Realise $60m of annual pre-tax synergies within the first two years and deliver double digit EPS accretion for PPT in the 12 months post implementation, with one-off costs to achieve synergies of $110m phased with majority incurred over 18 months and other transaction costs of $40m.
Create greater scale with $1.4bn in revenue and ~$456m in UPBT driven by increased economies of scale, and combined AUM of >$201bn, covering Global, US, UK, European and Australian equities, Multi Asset and Cash and Fixed Income strategies, significantly improving market position and brand recognition.
Expanded team with employees across 16 locations around the globe and enhanced global distribution network. Management expects to fund the cash component of the offer totalling $757m via a new debt facility, which will also re-finance Perpetual’s existing debt facility and include undrawn headroom for liquidity management purposes and expects pro forma leverage to be ~1.7x gross debt/pro forma EBITDA (~1.3x Net Debt/pro forma EBITDA) with de-leveraging occurring in year 3 post-implementation given the strong cash flow generation of the combined businesses with a clear pathway to 1.2x Gross Debt/pro forma EBITDA (~0.8x Net Debt)
The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 97cps, resulting in a total dividend for the full year of 209cps, an increase of +16% y/y, representing a payout ratio of 80%, in line with company’s payout range of 60-90% UPAT on an annualised basis.
ROE improved +44bps y/y to 16.2%

Company Description

Perpetual Ltd (PPT) is an ASX-listed independent wealth manager with three core segments in (1) Perpetual Investments which is one of Australia’s largest investment managers; (2) Perpetual Private which is one of Australia’s premier high net worth advice business; and (3) Perpetual Corporate Trust which provides trustee services. PPT manages ~$98.3 billion in funds under management, ~$17.0 billion in funds under advice and ~$922.8 billion in funds under administration (as at 30 June 2021).

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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PTM saw FY22 revenue decline -26.4% yy to $232.8m primarily due to -6.1% yy decline in fee revenue

Post author By lvc-admin
Post date December 10, 2022
No Comments on PTM saw FY22 revenue decline -26.4% yy to $232.8m primarily due to -6.1% yy decline in fee revenue

Investment Thesis

Trades on an attractive dividend yield.
PTM is in a position to attract net inflows as value-oriented strategies may make a sustained comeback.
There’s further pressure on the funds management industry and fees (as a result of industry and super funds building inhouse capabilities and passive investing with significantly lower fees/asset allocators becomes more of the norm).
Change in management or investment management team.
Industry consolidation could benefit PTM (potential M&A target).

Key Risks

Any significant outperformance across funds.
Kerr Neilson’s departure from the Board could be disruptive.
Potential change in regulation (superannuation) with more focus on retirement income (annuities) than wealth creation.
There are earnings risks to the downside from pressures on fees.
Emergence of industry funds who are building in-house capabilities.
PTM’s investment style becomes out of favour.

Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:

Total revenue declined -26.4% y/y to $232.8m, as fee revenue decreased -6.1% y/y to $252.7m, with -7.2% y/y decline in management fees (excluding performance fees) amid -8.5% y/y decline in average FUM to $21.4bn, partially offset by +67.5% y/y increase in performance fees to $6.7m, primarily from absolute return mandates and Asia strategy driven largely by the benefit of downside protection provided by short positions, and the company incurred $20.4m unrealised losses on seed investments vs $46.7m profit in pcp.
Expenses increased +4.7% y/y to $86.1m, primarily driven by +3.9% y/y increase in staff costs reflecting increase in share-based payment expenses due to additional deferred equity granted to employees, and +16.7% increase in business development expenses which included the launch of the Platinum Investment Bond product (and its direct-to-market proposition) and associated new campaigns, the growth in social media advertising, and third-party distribution costs.
Underlying NPAT, which excludes gains and losses on seed investments (net of tax), declined -10.9% y/y to $118.2m.
FUM declined -22.6% y/y to $18.2bn, driven by negative investment performance of $2.2bn, net fund outflows of $2.2bn and the net distribution paid to investors of $0.9bn.
The Board declared fully franked final dividend of 7cps, down -42% y/y, equating to ~9.8% annualized yield, taking full year dividend to fully franked 17cps, down -29% y/y.
The Board extended its on-market share buyback for upto 10% of issued share capital for further period of upto 12-months, commencing from 4th October 2022, intending to buy shares should the Board determine that PTM’s share price is trading at a significant discount to its underlying value.

Company Description

Platinum Asset Management (PTM) is an ASX-listed, Australian based fund manager which specializes in investing in international equities. PTM currently manages ~A$18.2bn.

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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