Business Strategy & Outlook:
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is the fifth-largest bank in Canada by assets and one of six that collectively hold almost 90% of the nation’s banking deposits. CIBC is more Canadian-focused than some of its more international peers, although this is changing after the acquisition of PrivateBancorp. The bank plans to eventually have up to 25% of revenue coming from the U.S. Despite having one of the larger domestic branch networks, CIBC’s products haven’t typically had top share in Canada, though the bank had made significant strides in multiple categories for years starting in 2011, as the bank increased share in multiple categories and increased product numbers per customer. This improvement has admittedly slowed down recently. CIBC has encountered its own issues over the years, including multibillion-dollar write-downs in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The bank had hit its stride since 2011, improving consumer satisfaction ratings, re-optimizing branches, improving internal processes, and expanding wealth operations. The bank is also seeing improved growth from its U.S. operations, which now contribute over 20% to earnings.
Risk and Uncertainty:
Canadian banks face two primary risks: macroeconomic risks and risks related to future acquisitions. Canada has some of the highest median housing prices/annual median household income ratios in several of its major housing markets, and mortgage debt levels have consistently increased for more than a decade. While low interest rates have kept debt servicing ratios under control, this puts the economy in a riskier position as rates rise. The leverage of the Canadian consumer as a risk, as they have slowly leveraged up for more than a decade. CIBC has the largest relative exposure to the domestic real estate market in Canada; however, it is viewed as a manageable risk for the bank. While there are uncertainties related to consumer debt levels and the mortgage market, it is viewed as a threat to future growth and not an existential risk to Canada’s banking system. Further, the Canadian banking system has historically been one of the more stable systems in the world, and the system is designed to protect industry profit levels and maintain this stability and promote economic stability. From an ESG perspective, commercial banks are expected to have strong product governance. Predatory or discriminatory lending practices are examples of poor product governance, and this can affect certain banks at times. It is viewed by most product governance and social risks as manageable and incorporates a steady level of operational expenses related to compliance and litigation in some models. Outside of the rare, headline-grabbing scandals, social risks are not seen as having a material effect on valuation. Banks also lend to certain sectors which can come under more scrutiny at times, like gun manufacturers, or energy, for example. Commercial banks do not directly have a large environmental footprint and governance practices are in line with most companies.
Bulls Say:
- CIBC has significantly improved multiple measures of core banking performance, such as customer perception surveys, promoter scores, and products per a customer. The bank is now operating at a higher level.
- CIBC is more Canadian-focused than most of its peers. Its consolidated returns on tangible equity remain some of the highest in the industry.
- The government has kept the Canadian market attractive by placing barriers to entry, protecting high returns, and the government will continue to attempt to keep the housing market under control, limiting any future hits to profitability.
Company Description:
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is Canada’s fifth largest bank, operating three business segments: retail and business banking, wealth management, and capital markets. It serves approximately 11 million personal banking and business customers, primarily in Canada.
(Source: Morningstar)
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