SkyCity Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: SKC)
Last Price: A$2.32 | Fair Value: A$3.50
Business Strategy & Outlook:
SkyCity is expected to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from current coronavirus-induced lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity’s Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm’s narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity’s solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience. The quality of these assets, particularly SkyCity Auckland, has helped build the firm’s VIP gaming business. SkyCity’s exposure to the volatile VIP gaming market is smaller than that of Australian rivals Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment. VIP revenue typically represents over 20% of Crown’s and Star’s sales, compared with SkyCity’s typical 10%-15%. While high rollers have no alternatives when in Auckland or Adelaide, SkyCity effectively competes as a destination casino on a global scale against locations such as The Star in Sydney and Crown Melbourne. VIP Gaming segment is expected to recover as border restrictions have eased and tourism recovers, to around 15% of revenue. To protect its competitive position and retain appeal, SkyCity is investing in its key properties. Successful execution of the two major projects in Auckland and Adelaide is key. They provide good earnings accretion opportunities, in particular at the core Auckland property. This includes a NZD 750 million upgrade to SkyCity Auckland to be completed by calendar 2025 and an AUD 330 million expansion for SkyCity Adelaide, a transformational project completed in fiscal 2021. Beyond 2025, when these expansion projects come on line in full, SkyCity Entertainment is expected to resume generating excess returns and revert to a strongly cash-generating business on a substantially stepped-up earnings base.
Risk and Uncertainty:
The primary risk to SkyCity is the ongoing recovery from the pandemic. The pandemic effectively halted SkyCity’s VIP business, and a protracted recovery could present significant downside risk. VIP gaming relies on international high rollers coming into the country, often through operators known as junkets. SkyCity’s exposure to the volatile VIP gaming market is smaller than those of Australian rivals Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment. The current regulatory scrutiny around Crown’s and Star’s casino licences in Australia elevates uncertainty around the rate of recovery of VIP gaming, notably regarding the firm’s dealings with junket operators. While not focusing on SkyCity, it is believed heightened regulatory oversight of Australian casinos in general is likely. It is expected to see a particular focus on junket operators potentially needing to be regulated locally (or even banned). It remains to be seen how New Zealand regulators will react, but SkyCity has pre-emptively banned junkets from April 2021. SkyCity’s expansion programs introduce execution risks. The sheer scale of the expansion program is unprecedented for the company, and the long construction duration could lead to higher-than-expected disruptions to the existing operations, not to mention potential cost overruns. Even when the expansion projects are fully completed, there is a threat the additional gaming capacity will not be fully absorbed
Bulls Say:
Company Description:
SkyCity Entertainment operates a number of casino-hotel complexes across Australia and New Zealand. The flagship property is SkyCity Auckland, the holder and operator of an exclusive casino license (expiring in 2048) in New Zealand’s most populous city. The company also owns smaller casinos in Hamilton and Queenstown. In Australia, the company operates SkyCity Adelaide (exclusive license expiring in 2035).
(Source: Morningstar)
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