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Small Cap

Bread Financial Faces Challenges as It Looks to Resume Growth After Spinning Off Assets

Business Strategy & Outlook

After the sale of Epsilon in 2019 and spinoff of Loyalty One in 2021, Bread Financial is now solely a consumer credit company, with its private label credit cards and buy now pay later businesses being its only two product lines. However, Bread’s retail credit card business is under pressure. The company has historically targeted midsize retailers for its partnerships. This strategy has led to a partnership base that is weighted toward mall-based retailers, which are in decline due to increased online shopping. Many of Bread’s retail partners have already filed for bankruptcy, including the Ascena Retail Group in July 2020 and Forever 21 in 2019. Bread has also suffered defections, losing Wayfair and Meijer to Citi in 2020 and BJ’s Wholesale Club to Capital One at the start of 2022. The retail partner loss is an ongoing threat to Bread as the firm does not have a competitive advantage that would give it an edge in retaining partnerships during contract renewal negotiations. 

Bread must also now contend with rising competitive threats from buy now pay later firms, which are targeting the U.S. retail market and seek to sign agreements with Bread’s partners. These firms are still a relatively small part of U.S. retail, but Bread takes the threat seriously. The company’s acquisition of the original Bread, a buy now pays later company, as well its decision to adopt its name as its own was done with the intent of accelerating the deployment of its own competing offering. As part of the spinoff of LoyaltyOne, Bread used the proceeds from the transaction to reduce its considerable debt load. This strategy favorably as Bread is heavily leveraged, especially when considering the low credit quality of its receivable portfolio, which has historically seen net charge-offs well above industry averages. More needs to be done to put Bread in a good financial position, but the spinoff and the related debt reduction are a material improvement to Bread’s balance sheet. However, this does place Bread in an awkward position should credit conditions deteriorate industry wide, as the bank is among the most credit sensitive firms covered.

Financial Strengths

When viewed as a single consolidated company, Bread Financial is a heavily leveraged firm. Bread finished 2021 with a tangible asset to tangible equity ratio of 15.1. The company accomplished this leverage by holding its banks as subsidiaries and keeping around $2 billion of its debt at the parent level. With the spinoff of LoyaltyOne now complete there are no longer any revenue-generating assets held at the parent level, and Bread will need to reconsolidate itself as a single entity or have its subsidiary banks make regular distributions up to the parent company to support its debt. The banks themselves are well capitalized with $3.2 billion in equity and a combined common equity Tier 1 ratio of 20%. However, the banks are guarantors of the parent company’s debt, and the company will likely have to rely on further distributions from the banks. This is problematic as additional distributions will force the banks to continue to rely on broker CDs and securitizations to finance its credit card receivables, pushing up its cost of funding and making the company more reliant on capital market availability. The degree of leverage also restricts Bread’s flexibility to invest in its businesses and respond to competitive threats. One of the key reasons that Bread sold its Epsilon business was that the firm did not believe it had the ability to make the kind of investments necessary to support the enterprise. There is precious little room for the company to maneuver and its debt costs have already risen. In late 2020, the company issued 7% unrated debt to do a partial paydown of its credit line, which at the time was costing the company roughly 1.9%. The debt paydown that was a part of the LoyaltyOne spinoff, and in the future, the company continues to manage its debt levels, particularly as economic fears intensify.

Bulls Say

  • Bread Financials’ restructuring efforts have been highly successful at reducing the company’s costs. This has allowed it to adjust effectively for its smaller size and retain profitability. 
  • Many of Bread Financials’ partners rely on it for data collection and loyalty programs. Switching costs protect these partnerships from competitive threats. 
  • The company’s credit card business is well capitalized, which will help protect the firm if credit results deteriorate.

Company Description

Formed by a combination of J.C. Penney’s credit card processing unit and The Limited’s credit card bank business, Bread Financial is a provider of private label and co-branded credit cards, loyalty programs, and marketing services. The company’s most financially significant unit is its credit card business that partners with retailers to jointly market Bread’s credit cards to their customers. The company also retains minority interest in its recently spun off LoyaltyOne division, which operates the largest airline miles loyalty program in Canada and offers marketing services to grocery chains in Europe and Asia.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Small Cap

Bega has transformed from a dairy processor with a focus on B2B operations to a branded consumer food company with a more diversified earnings base

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Despite Bega Cheese’s strategic shift toward a more diverse product offering, dairy products continue to represent the majority of Bega’s sales over the next decade, exposing the firm to commodity pricing and volatile input costs. Bega has not carved an economic moat required to consistently generate economic profits, and the firm’s powerful customers to limit margin growth potential. Bega has transformed from a dairy processor with a focus on business-to-business operations to a branded consumer food company with a more diversified earnings base and less exposure to volatile milk prices. While dairy will remain a key category for Bega Cheese, the focus will be on high value products such as cream cheese and infant formula. In January 2021, Bega finalised the acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks from Kirin Group for AUD 534 million. As part of the acquisition, Bega acquired leading brands in milk-based beverages and yoghurt, white milk, and plant-based beverages, in addition to 13 manufacturing sites and Australia’s largest national cold chain distribution network.

Revenue is expected from the branded segment, which includes spreads, grocery products and Lion’s Dairy and Drinks portfolio, to expand at a CAGR of 15% to fiscal 2026, underpinned by new product innovation and bolt-on acquisitions. There are virtually no switching costs in the consumer foods category and the rising adoption of online shopping has made it easier for smaller, niche brands to take share as physical shelf space becomes less relevant. This reinforces the need for Bega to invest in its brands to maintain share. Historically, Bega Cheese has made limited investment in its brands, particularly in Australia where Fonterra is the licensee of the Bega brand, however since acquiring the spreads and grocery business in 2018, marketing spend as proportion of revenue has increased to 3% from 1% and it will remain in the higher level.

Financial Strength

Bega’s balance sheet is sound. Leverage, measured as net debt/EBITDA improved to 2.3 at June 30, 2021, from 2.4 at the prior period and comfortably below covenants. This is a pleasing position post the major acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks in fiscal 2021 which was funded through AUD 267 million of new and extended debt facilities and AUD 401 million equity raising. Further deleveraging in coming years as acquisition synergies are achieved, earnings improve and non core assets are divested, with net debt/EBITDA falling below 2.0 by 2024. Bega will continue to explore potential bolt-on acquisitions and partake in industry rationalisation. While the timing and scale of further acquisitions is uncertain, Bega has the capacity to pursue smaller acquisitions while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% normalised EPS. Maintaining a relatively conservative balance sheet is prudent to weather potentially volatile earnings and afford capacity for future acquisitions should opportunities arise.

Bulls Say’s

  • Bega Cheese’s strategic shift away from dairy products lowers its exposure to volatile milk prices and diversifies the firm’s earnings. 
  • Bega has scope to improve margins through participating in industry consolidation, maximising plant utilisation and rationalising operations after several acquisitions in recent years. 
  • Bega is shifting investment to the spreads business, which is less commoditised and higher margin than dairy, with strong niche positions in Vegemite and peanut butter.

Company Profile 

Bega Cheese is an Australian based dairy processor and food manufacturer of well-known brands including Bega Cheese and Vegemite. Bega Cheese operates two segments: the branded segment which produces consumer packaged goods primarily sold through the supermarket and foodservice channels and the bulk segment which produces commodity dairy ingredients primarily sold through the business-to-business channel.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Capital One will need to compete aggressively with other credit card issuers to rebuild its credit card portfolio

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Capital One maintains a more limited branch network than its traditional banking peers, using its online and mobile channels to acquire customers and service its accounts. The focus on online bank accounts has allowed the company to establish a national presence broader than what its narrow branch network would traditionally allow. This dynamic allows Capital One to enjoy the benefits of being a large bank without the expense of operating the branch system of a large bank. Capital One specializes in credit cards, with this segment making up more than 40% of its total loans. The bank’s remaining business mostly consists of commercial loans and auto loans through its consumer banking segment. The bank’s narrow product offering focuses its assets, giving Capital One the benefit of scale in its chosen business lines. This does have the consequence of leaving the bank undiversified as it is reliant on its credit cards and auto lending business.

Despite recent growth, Capital One’s credit card receivables are still below their 2019 highs after high payback rates during 2020-21 led to portfolio erosion. Capital One will need to compete aggressively with other credit card issuers to rebuild its credit card portfolio. Capital One has increasingly turned to the private label and co-branded credit card market to boost growth, winning the BJ’s Wholesale Club and Walmart portfolios from rival firms. While the extra growth can be seen, private label cards typically require revenue sharing agreements with the partnered merchants, reducing returns. On the other hand, high credit card paydown rates have benefited Capital One’s credit costs, with the company seeing net charge-off rates in 2022 well below the bank’s historical average, despite increased economic strain on consumers. Higher net charge-offs are expected for Capital One by 2023, 2022 should be another year of below average credit costs as the bank’s delinquency rates remain low across all loan types. Even should credit costs rise, Capital One remains in a healthy financial position, and there are no material financial strains being placed on the bank’s balance sheet.

Financial Strength

Despite its credit exposure to credit cards and auto loans, Capital One is in a strong financial position. While rising deposits and falling credit card receivables have hurt the bank’s net interest margin, the shift in the asset mix has benefited the balance sheet. At the end of March 2022, Capital One had a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.7%, down from its peak but still well above its long-term goal of 11%. Despite heavy reserve releases, Capital One is still well provisioned for future credit losses with its allowance for bad loans at 4.03% of existing receivables. These figures do need to be viewed in the context of Capital One’s exposure to subprime credit cards and subprime auto loans. Roughly one third of the bank’s domestic credit card portfolio is with card holders whose FICO scores were below 660, and a similar portion of its auto loans is from borrowers with FICO scores below 620. That said, the 2022 Dodd-Frank stress test results saw Capital One’s common equity Tier 1 capital ratio only fall to 10.2% under the severely adverse scenario. This is despite a projected loss rate of 20.4% on the company’s credit card portfolio and a loss rate of 13.3% on all loans in the severely adverse scenario. While Capital One does have credit-exposed assets, it is more than adequately capitalized to withstand potential credit losses.

Bulls Say’s:

  • Capital One’s credit card portfolio has begun to grow again, providing a boost to the company’s net interest margins and revenue growth. 
  • Technology investments, the transition away from legacy data centers, and its reduction in the branch count should help the company reduce costs in the coming years. 
  • Rising interest rates should provide a tailwind for Capital One’s net interest income as margins expand.

Company Profile 

Capital One is a diversified financial service holding company headquartered in McLean, Virginia. Originally a spinoff of Signet Financial’s credit card division in 1994, the company is now primarily involved in credit card lending, auto loans, and commercial lending.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Looking beyond the current plan, Ameren has its sight set on nearly $28 billion of additional investment opportunities

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Ameren is a regulated utility that operates in Illinois and Missouri, two historically challenging regulatory jurisdictions that are rapidly improving. With improving rate regulation come significant investment opportunities, supporting the company’s five-year $17.3 billion capital investment plan. Looking beyond the current plan, Ameren has its sights set on nearly $28 billion of additional investment opportunities for the following five years, providing a long runway of growth for the company. Management is to be applauded for attaining constructive utility legislation in Missouri. Its patient yet persistent years-long efforts resulted in increased investment opportunities across the territory, a stark change from the past. Numerous trackers are in place for fuel adjustments, pension, and tax positions. These mechanisms are attributes of a constructive regulatory environment. Recent legislation allows utilities to securitize the remaining liabilities associated with Ameren’s coal plants, potentially allowing earlier-than-planned coal plant retirements and faster renewable energy growth.

With an improved regulatory framework in Missouri, management is keeping its promise to invest in jurisdictions that support investment. Ameren is allocating nearly half of its investment plan to Missouri. Projects will focus on renewable energy, upgrading aging and underperforming assets, and employing smart grids and connected grid services. Regulation in Illinois is set to change. While performance-based ratemaking, in which allowed returns on equity are 580 basis points above the average 30-year U.S. Treasury yield, was constructive, the drop-in interest rates led to some of the lowest allowed returns among its peers. New legislation allows utilities to opt in for a four-year rate plan beginning in 2024. Under the multi year plan, utilities are able to true-up earned returns to their allowed returns and continue sales decoupling. Performance metrics, both incentives and penalties, are given in a range of 20-60 basis points. The new rate structure could produce higher allowed returns in Illinois.

Financial Strength

Ameren will invest $17.3 billion of capital between 2022 and 2026.It is expected the company to issue debt and equity in line with its current capital structure and refinance its debt as it comes due. Ameren increased the dividend 10% in 2021. Future dividend growth to be more in line with earnings growth. Ameren has tended to be at the lower end of its 55%-70% dividend payout target. Ameren’s current financial health is sound. The firm’s 58% debt/capitalization ratio is in line with its utility peers. Interest coverage is healthy at over 6.0 times, and current debt/EBITDA is over 5.0.

Bulls Say’s:

  • Ameren’s regulated utilities provide a stable source of earnings. The company’s large capital expenditure plan should drive above-average rate base and earnings growth for the next several years. 
  • Ameren’s regulatory relationships have improved significantly in Missouri.
  • Ameren’s management team has proved to be best in-class operators, having diligently worked to improve regulatory relationships and execute on substantial growth projects.

Company Profile 

Ameren owns rate-regulated generation, transmission, and distribution networks that deliver electricity and natural gas in Missouri and Illinois. It serves 2.4 million electricity customers and more than 900,000 natural gas customers.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Zip Shares Still Cheap After Walking Away from Sezzle, But Its Fundamentals Are Getting Murkier

Business Strategy & Outlook:
Zip’s focus is on maximizing its addressable market. Its business is more diversified than single-product buy now, pay later, or BNPL, players, with varieties in financing options, transaction limits, and repayment schedules. Customers enjoy simple sign-up and checkouts, high acceptance by retailers and flexible financing solutions to help better manage their cash flows. Merchant partners may benefit from increased conversion rates, basket sizes, and transaction frequencies. Zip has a revolving credit business in Australia. ZipPay finances up to AUD 1,000, and ZipMoney AUD 1,000 and above. It also boasts a broader merchant base including retail, home, electronics, health, auto, and travel. Around 70% of revenue is derived from customers, mainly from account fees and interest. Meanwhile, Zip Business provides unsecured loans of up to AUD 500,000 to small and midsize enterprises.

Zip adopts an installment financing model overseas, helping it scale up faster and keep up with competition in the underpenetrated global BNPL landscape. The acquisition of U.S. based Quad Pay materially boosts its growth prospects. It also operates in the U.K., Canada, Europe, Mexico, and the Middle East. Zip enhances customer stickiness via ongoing product add-ons. It has a Pay Anywhere function that lets users transact at a wide variety of avenues without being confined to merchant partners. Users also benefit from promotional offers, cash-back deals, or free credits. Newer features include crypto trading, credit reporting, and savings accounts. For merchant partners, Zip invests in co-marketing to help them acquire new customers. Zip has strong earnings prospects, but its margins will be increasingly under pressure and it will not achieve the same penetration and transaction frequency overseas as it had domestically. While it benefits from the growth of e-commerce and increasing preference for more convenient/cheaper forms of financing, anticipated heightened competition to its products. The capital-intensive domestic business cannot scale up as quickly, its fee structure potentially creates friction for customers, and its product offering in the U.S lacks clear differentiation.

Financial Strengths:
While credit stress is creeping up, Zip remains overall in reasonable financial health. As of March 2022, the net bad debt ratio for its core ANZ business sits at 3.40% of receivables, while arrears are at 2.29%. But as a reprieve, Zip’s current financial position would be bolstered by: 1) its March equity raise; and 2) avoiding absorbing Sezzle’s net losses. Its debt/capital ratio is 56%, while the ratio of equity/receivables has improved to 52% in fiscal 2021 from 8.1% in fiscal 2017. Zip’s bad debts should stay manageable in a major credit event. Unlike some peers, Zip conducts a greater degree of background check before onboarding customers, such as collecting bank statements and pulling in information from a credit bureau. Soft credit checks are similarly performed when onboarding new customers overseas. This helps compensate for the fact that its receivables are higher-risk due to them having longer repayment periods and higher transaction value (notably for Zip Money) or it having a Pay Anywhere model. Its installment businesses have shorter turnover periods and lower transaction values, meaning it can know much earlier (relative to credit cards) if customers have trouble making payments and can therefore amend its risk controls accordingly. Most its Australian receivables are funded by its asset-based securitization program, with undrawn facilities totaling AUD 401.9 million as of March 2022. It also has USD 168.1 million and AUD 119.5 million of undrawn facilities to fund U.S and Zip Business’ receivables, respectively.

Bulls Say:
Zip is well placed to continue growing its transaction volume, given its variety in financing options and retailer base, as well as its Pay Anywhere model which provides a greater avenue to spend using its products.
Zip benefits from an accelerated shift to e-commerce, increased adoption of cashless payments, and a growing need among merchants for effective marketing amid a challenging retail backdrop.
Zip faces lower regulatory risks than its BNPL rivals, as it already conducts a greater degree of background checks and ZipMoney is already regulated by the National Credit Act.

Company Description:
Zip is a diversified finance provider, offering consumer financing via a line of credit (via ZipPay and ZipMoney) and installment-based finance (via Quad Pay, Spotii, Twisto, and PayFlex); as well as lending to small to midsize enterprises (via Zip Business). Zip’s fortunes are largely tied to the buy now, pay later, or BNPL, industry. Most of its products–ZipPay, Quad Pay (Zip U.S.), and PayFlex–do not charge interest based on outstanding balances. Around 60%-70% of Zip Pay’s/Zip Money’s revenue is derived from customers, mainly via account fees and interest. Meanwhile, its installment businesses primarily generate revenue by receiving a margin from merchants, which compensates it for accepting all nonpayment risk and for encouraging consumers to transact more frequently.

(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

Cohen & Steers Continues to Be Affected by Equity Market Selloff; FVE Lowered to $80 per Share

Business Strategy & Outlook

While the combination of rising interest rates and an equity market selloff has had an impact on Cohen & Steers’ levels of assets under management, they are cautiously optimistic about the firm over the near to medium term. Cohen & Steers came into 2022 with a record $106.6 billion in managed assets, split among its U.S. real estate (47% of total AUM), global/international real estate (18%), global listed infrastructure (8%), and preferred securities (25%) offerings. But market losses and meager flows during the first half of the year had left the company with $87.9 billion in managed assets at the end of June. So far, market losses are having a bigger impact on AUM than flows, with Cohen & Steers reporting a 12.3% (16.0%) market loss for its managed assets during the second quarter (first half) of 2022. This was better than the Morningstar Global Markets REIT TR Index, which was down 15.6% (20.0%) during the same time frame. Part of this is likely due to the firm garnering just two thirds of its total AUM from real estate investment funds, and some can also be attributed to active management.

While REITs have generally performed well during periods of rising long-term interest rates (based on studies done by NAREIT over the years), the current tightening cycle is a push by the Fed to fight inflation, which has been hitting levels not seen since the early 1980s. Rising rates and inflation can hinder external growth efforts for REITs (as acquisitions become less accretive) and pressure existing tenants, as well as provide investors with a less risky yield alternative in fixed-income securities (leading to outflows). It looks like most of Cohen & Steers’ investors are not running for the exits, though, as flows have been relatively flattish year to date. The firm’s institutional clients tend to be first to reallocate (and generally well in advance of Fed actions), so the fact they’ve not pulled out too aggressively is a positive. The Standard & Poor’s separation of real estate-related companies from the financial services sector has forced many institutional investors to maintain exposure to REITs, adding some stability to Cohen & Steers’ managed assets.

Financial Strengths

Cohen & Steers has not had any debt on its books since 2005. Based on what to be conservative long-term estimates for profitability and cash flows, the company is unlikely to need to tap the credit markets to fund its operations during the five-year projection period. Over the past 10 calendar years, Cohen & Steers has returned more than $1.1 billion to shareholders as dividends (utilizing both regular quarterly dividends and special one-time dividends to pay out capital) and around $130 million to shareholders via share repurchases (net of share issuances). Going forward, the firm will return just over half of its expected annual free cash flow (of around $270 million on average) to shareholders as dividends, with the rest spent on share repurchases or other investments (including seed capital for new products). At the end of March 2022, the firm had $115 million in cash and cash equivalents (including $30 million in U.S. Treasury securities) and $255 million in investments (including $63 million in seed capital) on its books.

Bulls Say

  • Cohen & Steers’ long record of successful REIT investing has allowed it to tap into demand for alternatives that offer diversification away from more traditional stock and bond offerings. 
  • The firm’s funds are entrenched in the broker/dealer market, and the company also garners close to half of its AUM from institutional clients, providing it with a relatively stable base of assets. 
  • At the end of March 2022, Cohen & Steers had $2.33 in cash and equivalents per share on hand, which could be used to fund a special dividend, a strategic acquisition, or to increase share repurchases.

Company Description

Cohen & Steers is a niche asset manager concentrating on real estate securities. The firm invests mainly in the equity shares of real estate investment trusts, with holdings in domestic and international real estate securities accounting for close to two thirds of its $87.9 billion in managed assets at the end of June 2022. Cohen & Steers also manages portfolios dedicated to preferred securities, utilities stocks, and other high-yield offerings. It expects to balance distribution among its closed-end mutual funds, open-end mutual funds, and institutional accounts over time. During the March quarter of 2022, the company garnered 40% (26%) of its managed assets (base management fees) from institutional clients, 47% (55%) from open-end funds, and 13% (19%) from closed-end funds.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Assa Abloy has significant growth potential as it benefits from structural changes

Business Strategy & Outlook

Assa Abloy has significant growth potential as it benefits from structural changes. There are two key drivers of future growth. An industrywide shift toward software-driven products, expanding functionality, and linking locking systems with other building systems. Second, emerging-market demand will move up the quality curve to more sophisticated locking solutions, in which Assa Abloy is a leader. If the spectrum of today’s locks were defined by a basic mechanical lock on one end and a software-controlled locking system on the other end, Assa Abloy’s product portfolio would be heavily weighted toward the latter. Advances in the past decade have expanded the functionality of lock systems to enable ever more precise access parameters, as well as enhanced identification of lock system users. For example, a building administrator would be able to provide a registered visitor with temporary access to a computer for a specified two-hour window on a particular day.

Technological improvements are shortening the upgrade cycle for locks, as customers are eager to implement new security-enhancing features. The shift toward software-driven locks will continue over the long term, with the company’s global technologies division forging the path. The division is experiencing good initial success in selling virtual keys, typically issued on a temporary basis to mobile phones. Asia and other emerging markets lag in locking solutions, with under penetration of electromechanical locks, such as those linked to a keycard reader. Pent-up demand in the region, combined with strategic acquisitions, fueled a fivefold increase in Assa Abloy’s Asia-Pacific revenue over the past decade, with organic revenue growth averaging 5% from 2005 to 2013 (before China’s property bust). For buildings with multiple daily users, there are obvious benefits from upgrading to more sophisticated systems that can track and limit building access. Asia and other emerging markets offer a long runway of demand for Assa Abloy’s products.

Financial Strengths

At the end of March 2022, the company’s net debt/EBITDA ratio was less than 2 times. Looking to the medium term, total debt maturities from 2023 to 2026 are around SEK 13 billion out of around SEK 25 billion in gross debt. Given the forecast for roughly SEK 16 billion in annual free cash flow, which would enable the company to pay down gross debt, in theory, in about two years.

Bulls Say

  • As the global leader in locking solutions, Assa Abloy is best positioned to capture the spoils from a secular shift toward integrated lock and other building systems.
  • The growing contribution of software-driven products should strengthen Assa Abloy’s margins and returns, as well as the stickiness of customer relationships, in the medium term. 
  • Accelerated adoption of electromechanical, digital, or smart locks should ease Assa Abloy’s path toward achieving its target of 5% organic growth over the business cycle.

Company Description

Assa Abloy has the world’s largest installed base of locks, protecting some of the most security-sensitive buildings, including the European Parliament in Brussels. Three fourths of its revenue come from government and commercial customers. The company’s product base is centered on electromechanical locks, which require identification to unlock with a keycard, biometric scan, or PIN. Assa Abloy’s products are sold directly to security systems integrators, locksmiths, hardware stores, and original equipment manufacturers

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Hannover Re a Rare Moat in Reinsurance

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Hannover Re is a property and casualty, and life and health reinsurer with property and casualty contributing a little over two thirds of the company’s profits to shareholders. Hannover Re has slightly less than double-digit market share in both these divisions. This is a business that is characterized by underwriting and carving deep expertise in niche areas. While this may sound a bit wooly, some of this underwriting difference comes from the overall ownership of the underwriting process by Hannover Re’s underwriters. Company conceptualizes this through lenses of decision-making and responsibility. Whereas in other reinsurance firms, underwriters may need to defer back to a head of risk or perhaps even the c-suit, underwriters at Hannover Re have more authority and a better line of sight. Furthermore, it is anticipated that this leads to stronger client relationships because underwriters are client-facing and thus renewals a reiterative negotiation, with Hannover Re’s underwriters in the position to directly negotiate and discuss client needs without the need for constant deferral. This drives stronger retention rates, thereby lowering commissions and acquisition costs. 

In addition to the culture of excellence in underwriting with a proven reputation for expertise in specialist lines, Hannover Re benefits from an expense advantage and these two benefits are aligned. For example, with deeper and stronger expertise in underwriting, Hannover Re retrocedes less than comparable European reinsurance companies. As the business has the institutional capacity to absorb this internally with regard to its frontline, coupled with the lower levels of internal referrals outlined, Hannover Re supports more premium per employee than other comparable. The outcome of this is tangible with the business benefiting from at least a 1 percentage point expense-ratio advantage.

Financial Strengths:  

Hannover Re has a sound balance sheet. It has one of the better balance sheets among the companies in European reinsurance coverage. While debt to equity is a little higher than the company would like to see at 36.8%, the debt to us looks quite clean because there is no hidden debt within equity. The maturity of the debt is relatively long-dated with the closest maturity arising in over five years. Overall, coupon rates are low and so the combination of the two is encouraging. Further recent debt issues have carried similar rates of interest.

Bulls Say: 

  • Hannover Re has a strong culture of expertise and experience in specialist underwriting. 
  • Hannover Re is a cost leader with one of the lowest proportional amounts spent on administrative expenses. 
  • Hannover Re focuses on organic growth rather than acquisitions. This comes through in its lean structure, lower expenses, and approach to capital management.

Company Description:  

Hannover Re is a German-based reinsurance company with a strong reputation in writing specialist lines of reinsurance and a low-cost operating model. The business and its management team are highly disciplined, rarely ever acquiring and favoring a strategy of special dividends over committing to buybacks when looking to return excess capital to shareholders. Company also finds the business innovative in finding alternative and unearthed profit sources.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Munich Re is the largest reinsurer in the world by gross premiums written

Business Strategy & Outlook

Munich Re is the largest reinsurer in the world by gross premiums written. A business of this size in an industry that is geared toward diversification rarely has an opportunity to improve returns on equity beyond efficiency. By that, they carve out a superior competitive position by utilizing information technology and scale in order to drive down expenses. However, in the case of Munich Re, while the occurrence of this dynamic, the implementation of innovative technology was key to the ongoing strategic positioning and development of the business. What is witnessed is institutional knowledge that is being transferred from one specialist area within the business to a division that is more commonly associated as a commodity. In the years that this transfer has taken place, one can see an improvement in divisional operating metrics. For the business unit in question, to calculate this as operating profit over gross premiums written. 

More broadly, over the past two decades, only one of Munich Re’s divisions has earned its cost of capital: nonlife reinsurance. Here, the division has earned an implied 12.3% return on equity versus the 9.0% that at the group level. Returns to shareholders in the life reinsurance division have been anemic at around 4.7% over this same period. However, it is work in the primary insurance division that is creating a competitive tailwind, combined with a growing contribution from risk solutions that houses the Hartford Steam Boiler business and sits within nonlife reinsurance.

Financial Strengths

The Munich Re is generally in good financial health and one can assess this through the solvency position. Munich Re reported a 231% solvency ratio at the end of first-quarter 2022, above its targeted 175% to 220% range.

Bulls Say

  • Munich Re has one of the strongest management teams in European insurance coverage. 
  • There is a strong focus on innovation in the business that is unusual for a company of this size and leadership. 
  • The turnaround to date of Ergo has been strong. This division is now earning over its cost of capital and there continues to be scope for improvement.

Company Description

Munich Re is one of the largest reinsurance firms in the world. It also serves clients with primary insurance.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Australian Household Debt Levels Are a Risk, But Westpac Is Not as Risky as Share Price Implies

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Westpac Bank is the second-largest of Australia’s four major banks. The bank provides a range of banking and financial services to retail and business customers, including mortgages, consumer finance, credit cards, business loans, and term deposits. Following the divestment of its financial planning and advice business, even its wealth arm–BT Financial Group–is likely to go. Under new leadership, most non banking units are being divested, including general, life, and mortgage insurance. Westpac’s strategy is anchored in its commitment to conservatively manage risk across all business areas, following its near-death experience in the early 1990s. The multi-brand, customer-focused strategy aims to capture an increasing share of business from its Australian and New Zealand banking and wealth management customer base. 

Westpac established itself as an integrated financial services group in the early 2000s with its expansion into wealth management, acquiring Rothschild, BT Financial Services, and Hastings. The company diversified domestically by acquiring St. George Bank in 2008, providing access to a broader customer base and adding scale. Westpac has a 22% share of home lending. While risks directly related to coronavirus have abated, wage pressures, labor, and supply chain challenges, and high inflation pose challenges as the cash rate increases. The main current influences on earnings growth are modest credit growth and widening margins as the banks reprice lending rates in a rising cash-rate environment. Operating expenses should continue to fall as the bank resets its cost base after completing a number of remediation and technology projects. The bank has suffered from slow approval times in home lending, but expects increased resources and digital investments to improve service levels. After enjoying super-low impairment charges pre-2020, large loan losses expected due to COVID-19 resulted in large provisions in fiscal 2020.The expected return to midcycle levels around 0.18% in fiscal 2025.

Financial Strengths:  

Westpac comfortably meets APRA’s common equity Tier 1 ratio benchmark of 10.5%. The bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio was 11.3% as at March. 31, 2022, with the bank’s target range of 11% to 11.5%. This is based on APRA’s globally conservative methodology and a top-quartile internationally comparable 17.4%. The risk of higher loan losses is viewed and credit stress inflating risk-weighted assets as the greatest threat to the bank’s capital position in the near term. In the past three years, the proportion of customer deposits to total funding is about 60% to 65%, reducing exposure to volatile funding markets. After completing an AUD 3.5 billion share buyback in February 2022 Westpac has AUD 3.8 billion in excess capital as at March 31, 2022.

Bulls Say: 

  • Improving economic conditions underpin profit growth from fiscal 2021. Productivity improvements are likely from fiscal 2023.
  • Cost and capital advantages over regional banks and neo-banks provide a strong platform to drive credit growth.
  • Consumer banking provides earnings diversity to complement the more volatile returns generated from business and wholesale banking activities.

Company Description: 

Westpac is Australia’s oldest bank and financial services group, with a significant franchise in Australia and New Zealand in the consumer, small business, corporate, and institutional sectors, in addition to its major presence in wealth management. Westpac is among a handful of banks around the globe currently retaining very high credit ratings. The bank benefits from a large national branch network and significant market share, particularly in home loans and retail deposits.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.