The firm is at the early stages in trying to attract a larger piece of what we estimate could be $1 trillion worth of goods and services by 2025 to its platform. DoorDash benefits from the network effects between merchants, deliverers (or “dashers”), and consumers, plus intangible assets, in the form of data, which we believe together warrant our narrow moat rating. Consumers use DoorDash’s app to order food for pickup or delivery from restaurants. Based on data from Second Measure, DoorDash currently is the market leader in the U.S., with 56% share, above Uber’s 26% and Grubhub’s 18%. The firm has over 450,000 merchants, more than 20 million consumers, and more than 1 million dashers on its platform.
DoorDash has also begun to provide similar service to businesses in verticals other than restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. With strengthening of the network effect, we expect DoorDash to maintain its leadership position in likely a market where there will be only one other viable player, Uber Eats, in the long run. The firm’s network effect should also lower consumer and deliverer acquisition costs, resulting in further operating leverage and GAAP profitability in 2023.
Financial Strength
Our $142 fair value estimate of narrow moat DoorDash and continue to view the very high uncertainty rated stock as overvalued. The firm reported mixed second-quarter results with revenue beating the FactSet consensus estimates, while losses were a bit more than expected. While DoorDash and Uber will hold the number one and the number two positions in delivery within the U.S., DoorDash’s stock price may be displaying too much optimism about how quickly and at what cost the firm can diversify its business within and outside of the U.S. market. At current levels, we prefer Uber, as our $69 fair value estimate on the stock represents a 61% potential upside.
DoorDash’s gross order volume increased 70% year over year and 5% from the first quarter to $10.5 billion. Such growth was driven by an increase in the number of orders (69% year over year) and gross order volume per order (up 1%). The higher take rate resulted in $1.2 billion in total revenue, up 83% from last year. The firm generated a GAAP operating loss of $99 million during the quarter compared with $27 million in operating income in the second quarter of 2020. During the second quarter, sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue spiked to 35% (from 25% last year but slightly more comparable to last quarter’s 31%) mainly due to more aggressive marketing to consumers and drivers.
DoorDash went public in late December 2020, raising $3.3 billion to fund its operations as it continues to invest in growth. The firm likely will not become profitable until 2023. DoorDash holds $4.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt. The firm has access to a $400 million revolving credit facility from which nothing has been drawn.DoorDash burned $159 million and $467 million in cash from operations in 2018 and 2019, respectively, and generated $252 million in cash from operations in 2020 due to a smaller net loss and higher non-cash expenses, especially a significant year-over-year increase in stock-based compensation to $322 million from $18 million. The firm averaged $66 million, or nearly 6% of revenue, in capital expenditures in 2018-20.
Company Profile
Founded in 2013 and headquartered in San Francisco, DoorDash is an online food order demand aggregator. Consumers can use its app to order food on-demand for pickup or delivery from merchants mainly in the U.S. The firm provides a marketplace for the merchants to create a presence online, market their offerings, and meet demand by making the offerings available for pickup or delivery. The firm provides similar service to businesses in addition to restaurants, such as grocery, retail, pet supplies, and flowers. At the end of 2020, DoorDash had over 450,000 merchants, 20 million consumers, and over 1 million dashers on its platform. In 2020, the firm generated $24.7 billion in gross order volume (up 207% year over year) and $2.9 billion in revenue (up 226%).
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.