Investment thesis
- Strong market share in Australia, with a strong influence in Asia. As a result, it offers appealing exposure to the growth of both developed and emerging markets.
- The corporation’s newly appointed CEO brings a fresh perspective on company strategy, which can restructure the company for strong volume growth.
- Based on our projections, the valuation is reasonable.
- Going forwards, management appears to be less centred on acquired growth, implying that the Company is less likely to make a value-destroying acquisition.
- The reintroduction of the dividend is a positive sign that management is optimistic about future earnings growth.
- In an environmentally friendly market, focusing on sustainable packaging.
Key Risks
The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:
- Increased competitive pressures, resulting in further margin erosion.
- Cost pressures on inputs that the corporation would be unable to pass on to users.
- A worsening in Australia’s and Asia’s economic conditions.
- The risk of emerging markets.
- Poor acquisitions or failure to meet synergy targets as PGH shifts away from packaging for food, dairy, and beverage clients and towards more high-growth sectors such as healthcare.
- Negative currency movements (purchased raw materials in U.S. dollars)
Highlights of key FY21 results
- Revenue fell -3 percent to $1,762 million, while underlying EBITDA increased by 4% to $315 million, underlying EBIT increased by 10% to $183 million (EBIT margin increased by 120 basis points to 10.4 percent), and underlying NPAT increased by 28% to $94 million. The positive motivational drivers of group EBIT growth over the year were: margin improvement (+$10m) as a result of disciplined raw material input cost management; volume growth in Packaging & Sustainability (+$9m); and volume increase in Materials Handling & Pooling (+$15m).
- As a result of strong operating performance and working capital management, cash flow performance improved, with free cashflow increasing by +44 percent to $104 million.
- Balance sheet gearing decreased slightly year on year, working to improve to 2.4x (within the targeted range of 3.0x) from 2.6x. The company has $317 million in liquid assets (undrawn debt capacity).
- Strong capital returns, with a +120bps increase in ROIC to 11.8 percent. The Board declared a final dividend of 6cps (65 percent franked), helping to bring the year’s total dividends to 11cps (vs 3cps in the pcp).
Company Description
Pact Group Holdings Ltd (PGH) was established by Raphael Geminder in 2002 (Mr. Geminder remains a major shareholder with ~44% and is the brother in law of Anthony Pratt, Chairman of competitor Visy). Pact has operations throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia and conceives, designs and manufactures packaging (plastic resin and steel) for many productsin the food (especially dairy and beverage), chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.