Investment Thesis
- Trading at a discount to our valuation.
- With a growing population, the long-term outlook for childcare demand remains positive (organic and net immigration).
- Increased emphasis on both organic and acquired growth.
- Increasing exposure to international markets (Asia).
- Strategic investor China First Capital Group (12.45% stake in GEM) may see a collaborative expansion into the Chinese market.
- The Company’s national footprint enables it to scale more effectively than competitors and mom and pop shops.
- A global operator could be interested in acquiring the company.
- Improve occupancy levels by leveraging – (rough estimates) A 1% increase in occupancy equates to $10-11 million in revenue and a $3 million EBIT benefit.
Key Risks
- The company faces execution risk in meeting its FY19 earnings per share (EPS) target.
- Pricing pressure is being exerted as a result of increased competition.
- Increased supply in some areas has resulted in lower occupancy rates.
- Acquisition with a negative impact on value (s).
- Execution risk associated with offshore expansion.
- Childcare funding cuts or adverse regulatory changes
- Australia is experiencing a recession.
- Dividend reduction
FY21 Result Highlights
- Revenue of $421.5 million (vs. $308.2 million in CY20 H1 and $429.9 million in CY19 H1) reflects occupancy recovery and the effects of greenfield growth, Victorian Government Covid-19 payments, and the February fee review, offset by divestments.
- GEM saw an increase in national Core average occupancy to 68.0 percent (from 65.1 percent in CY20 H1), but it remains below pre-Covid levels of 70.4 percent in CY19 H1.
- Operating EBIT (after lease interest) of $38.9m was up from $19.7m in CY20 H1 (restated) and in line with $38.8m in CY19 H1 (restated), owing to the “benefits of the Improvement Process, February fee review, and greenfield growth being invested in increasing system support and quality.”
- The statutory NPAT of $25.1 million was an improvement over the net loss after tax of $244 million.
- GEM’s balance sheet remains strong, with a net cash position.
- GEM did not pay an interim dividend, but the Board “expects dividend payments to resume with a full-year CY21 dividend to be paid in CY22.”
- GEM’s employee remediation programme is well-advanced, with a provision of $80 million pre-tax ($57 million after tax), less costs incurred to date.
Company Profile
G8 Education Limited (GEM) owns and operates care and education services in Australia and Singapore through a range of brands. The Company initially listed on the ASX in December 2007 under the name of Early Learning Services, but later merged with Payce Child Care to become G8 Education.
(Source: Morningstar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.