Category: Sectors

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Fixed Income Fixed Income

Good addition for diversification especially for investors looking to gain ESG exposure

taking into account a variety of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. The Fund seeks to provide such a total return approach, offering duration exposure at suitable points in the cycle, as well as defensive positioning in a soaring rate environment, and invests solely in domestic assets, avoiding the importation of global risks (e.g. currency) and offering a different risk profile.

Philosophy of Investing

Bond markets, diverge from fundamental fair value due to a variety of factors such as central bank/government activity, fund flows, and investor positioning. Top down analysis is critical for identifying opportunities to exploit resulting inefficiencies in fixed income markets, while individual stock selection plays a secondary role in adding value for high grade bond markets such as Australia.

Investment Process

The diagram below best summarises Altus’ investment process. The Scenario – based forecasting and building a case for the Best Case, Central Case, and Worst Case is, the most important component of the investment process. By creating a well-thought-out and researched narrative for each case, the investment team is able to answer important questions and describe the macroeconomic landscape. . Generally agree with their current position in each case and the analysis that supports it. Not necessarily agree with their point of view, we do value the analysis and the manner in which the narrative was presented.

Source: Altius Asset Management 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Orora Limited (ASX: ORA)

  • Exposure to the growth of both developed and emerging economies.
  • Headwinds in the near term should be factored into the price.
  • Following a recent strategic assessment, the strategy has been revised.
  • Bolt-on acquisitions (and the synergies that come with them) can help complement organic growth.
  • Leveraged against the AUD/USD and is now declining.
  • Corporate activities that could occur.
  • Management of capital (current on-market share buyback plus potential for additional initiatives).

Key Risks

  • Margin loss due to competitive forces.
  • Cost pressures in the supply chain that the company is unable to pass on to customers.
  • Economic conditions in the United States, emerging markets, and Australia are deteriorating.
  • Risk associated with emerging markets.
  • Adverse Movements in AUD/USD exchange rates 
  • OCC prices are decreasing.

FY21 group result highlights

Group revenue was slightly down (-0.8 percent) to $3.5 billion (up +7.8% in constant currency), operating earnings (EBIT) were up +11.6 percent to $249.1 million (up +17.3 percent in CC), underlying NPAT was up +23.7 percent to $156.7 million, EPS was up +29 percent to 16.9 cents (also driven by the on-market share buyback), and the full year dividend of 14cps up +16.7% on pcp. 2) Balance sheet. The impact of the on-market share buyback boosted leverage from 0.9x to 1.5x. Leverage, on the other hand, is still far below management’s goal range of 2 – 2.5x.

Company Description 

Orora Limited (ORA) provides packaging products and services. Orora is a global packaging manufacturer, distributor and visual communication solutions company The Company offers fibres, and glass and beverage can be packaged materials in Australia and Asia and packaging distribution services in North America and Australia.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

HT&E Limited (ASX: HT1)

  • Additional cost savings, notably a large reduction in corporate overhead expenditures.
  • The ATO and HT1 are anticipated to reach an agreement in the near future.
  • Changes in media ownership rules could lead to more corporate activity. Upside to the valuation of Soprano (25% interest) 
  • Initiatives for capital management that are still in progress.
  • A solid financial statement.

Key Risks

  • Decline in advertising dollars (radio and outdoor), particularly if Australia’s retail industry is under stress.
  • The structure of radio is being disrupted.
  • Increased tender competition from large players.
  • With worldwide expansion, there is a danger of poor execution.
  • The tax liabilities of the Australian Taxation Office materialize at a higher level than expected by the market.
  • Hong Kong could detract from the group’s performance (Corona virus or protests escalate).
  • Lockdowns relating to Covid-19 are being reintroduced around the country.

1H CY21 group results 

HT1 had a great first half of the year, owing to a solid market recovery. Core revenue increased by 18.2 percent to $109.9 million, underlying EBITDA increased by 55.9% to $30.4 million, underlying EBIT increased by 139.5 percent to $23.7 million, and NPAT increased by 352.8 percent to $16.3 million. On a like-for-like basis, group sales increased by 21%, owing to higher consumer confidence and advertising spend in Australia and Hong Kong. Higher cost of sales (ongoing investment in digital audio capability) and the resumption of marketing and certain discretionary spending that were deferred to the pandemic in the pcp drove up operating costs (up +9% vs pcp, or up +12% on a similar basis). The Board reinstated the dividend and announced a fully franked interim dividend of 3.5cps vs. zero in the PCP due to strengthening market circumstances.

Company Description  

HT&E Limited (HT1) is a media and entertainment company with operations in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong. The Company operates the following key segments: (1) Australian Radio Network (ARN) – metropolitan radio networks including KIIS Network, The Edge96.One and Mix106.3 Canberra; (2) Hong KongOutdoor (Cody) – Billboard, transit and other outdoor advertising in Hong Kong, with over 300 outdoor advertising panels and in-bus multimedia advertising across 1,200 buses; and (3) Digital Investments – digital assets including iHeartRadio, Emotive and Conversant Media.   

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Continued Spending on the Home Improves Profitability at Wide-Moat Home Depot

 to deliver more than $140 billion in revenue in 2021. It continues to benefit from a healthy level of housing turnover along with improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating because of its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying our margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. 

Home Depot should continue to capture top-line growth beyond 2021, bolstered by aging housing stock and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for top-line growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (most recently bolstered by the acquisition of HD Supply). Expansion of newer (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) and existing (such as appliances) categories could also drive demand.

The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 13.8% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric reaching above 15% sustainably over the next decade.

Bulls Say

  • Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should improve productivity and increase domestic share in a stable housing market, increasing sales and margins.
  • The company has returned $56 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years–more than 15% of its market cap. It has consistently increased its dividend and used excess cash to repurchase shares.
  • The addressable pro market is around $55 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up around 10% share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Financial Strength

Home Depot raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. This led Home Depot to end 2020 with a total long-term debt load of more than $35 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 0.92.Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and we expect the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. 

Company Profile

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating nearly 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Morrisons’ Strong Balance Sheet and Store Estate Attracts Private Equity Interest

Although operating margins in the grocery industry are similar among the Big Four, we reckon Morrisons has a more efficient operating cost structure than Tesco and Sainsbury’s. It also has a stronger balance sheet than its Big Four peers.Morison It has large-store exposure, with no convenience-store presence and an online channel growing through third-party partnerships (Ocado and Amazon). Its strategy is centred on driving traffic in stores through the provision of additional services such as hand car washes, tyre change concessions, and parcel pickup services on top of a stronger core food offering. The company targets higher exposure in growth channels through capital-light partnerships in wholesale (Amazon, McColl’s, LuLu), online (Ocado), and convenience (Rontec forecourts). Although we believe management’s plan makes sense in the current market environment, it highlights the company’s limited channel exposure in an increasingly multichannel world. We view the company’s channel positioning as problematic despite the new initiatives, especially in a period of balance sheet deleveraging and tighter capital expenditure budgets (making it hard for the firm to develop its own convenience-store network)

On Aug. 19 Morrisons reached an agreement for a recommended cash offer of GBX 285.00 per share by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice Funds, or CD&R, a private equity fund, which implies a premium of about 60% to the closing price on June 18 (last business day before possible offer by CD&R) and an enterprise value multiple of 9 times the grocer’s underlying EBITDA or about 20.7 times Morrisons’ underlying EPS. The offer is equivalent to a cash consideration of approximately GBP 7.00 billion on a fully diluted basis. Morrisons’ board intends to recommend unanimously that shareholders vote in favour of the takeover, to be proposed at the general meeting in the week commencing Oct. 4.We intend to increase our GBX 252.00 fair value estimate to reflect the most recent offer. 

We think the current offer is very generous for Morrisons’ shareholders. In our estimates, the value the new owner can successfully extract from a potential monetization of the grocer’s vast store estate could be about GBX 70.00 per share. We believe, at these levels, the new owner could still achieve good returns on invested capital but only by realizing significant structural cost savings and leveraging up the balance sheet (Morrisons exhibits high capacity to leverage: net debt/EBITDAR ratio of about 2.4 times versus 3.4 times for Tesco and Sainsbury’s, excluding the banks).

Bulls Say

  • Morrisons is a well-managed company with one of the most efficient operating cost structures relative to peers.
  • The firm has good balance sheet and cash flow management. Working capital has been squeezed, selective store property sold off, and capital spending held in check.
  • Morrisons has a large freehold store estate.

Financial Strength

Morrisons is in reasonably good financial health, with low levels of net debt, a pension surplus, and modest levels of free cash generation. At the beginning of February 2020, net debt had been reduced to around GBP 1 billion which implies a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.4.Financial leverage has also been reduced through sales of freehold stores and disposals, which have generated close to GBP 1,000 million in proceeds in recent years..Capital spending remains moderate, and like other U.K. grocers, Morrisons is no longer in strong store-expansion mode. 

Company Profile

Founded by William Morrison in 1899, Wm Morrison Supermarkets is the U.K.’s fourth-largest grocery chain, with a market share of around 10%. The 2004 takeover of rival Safeway transformed the firm in terms of scale and gave it a significant presence outside its base in Northern England. The company operates about 500 stores, entirely in the United Kingdom. Morrisons has an online presence via a partnership with Ocado and Amazon and has lately been trying to expand its wholesale channel with new agreements (McColl’s).

(Source: Morning Star)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Streamlined Portfolio Should Continue to See Solid Demand as Apartments Recover

The company invests in metropolitan markets with solid demographic trends that allow the company to maintain high occupancies and pass along consistent rent increases. Demand for apartments depends on economic conditions in their markets like job growth, income growth, decreasing homeownership rates, high relative cost of single-family housing, and attractive urban centers. Apartment Income has significantly simplified and streamlined its portfolio and strategy over the past decade. 

While the company has decreased its portfolio from over 300 properties at the end of 2008 to 96 properties in the current portfolio, the company owns approximately the same number of assets over that time frame in the 8 markets it currently considers to be its core markets. The company’s exit from markets with lower growth prospects has increased the portfolio’s expected average growth. In 2020, Apartment Income spun off its development pipeline and lease-up portfolio into its own company so that the remaining company could focus on the highest-quality assets.

Financial Strength 

Apartment Income is in decent financial shape from a liquidity and a solvency perspective. Debt maturities in the near term should be manageable through a combination of refinancing, asset sale proceeds, and free cash flow. The company should be able to access the capital markets when acquisition and development opportunities arise. As a REIT, Apartment Income is required to pay out 90% of its income as dividends to shareholders, which limits its ability to retain its cash flow. However, the company’s current run-rate dividend is easily covered by the company’s cash flow from operating activities, providing Apartment Income plenty of flexibility to make capital allocation and investment decisions. 

Fair value estimate to $47.50 per share from $44 after incorporating second-quarter results and adjusting our near-term forecasts to account for a better-than-anticipated recovery from the pandemic. Our fair value estimate implies a 4.3% cap rate on our forward four-quarter net operating income forecast, 23 times multiple on our forward four-quarter funds from operations estimate, and 3.5% dividend yield based on a $1.64 annualized payout. Currently project $200 million of dispositions a year at an average cap rate of 5.75% and $100 million-$200 million of acquisitions at 5.25% cap rates as the company looks to recycle lower-quality assets to fund the acquisition of higher-quality assets. Apartment Income’s net asset value to be approximately $39 per share.

Bulls Say’s

  • Apartment Income’s diversified portfolio of mainly suburban and infill assets should see less impact from supply, which is more concentrated in urban, luxury markets.
  • Positive demographic and economic trends will fuel strong demand for apartment rentals, including the millennial generation, which is beginning to move to the suburbs but still lack the necessary capital to purchase a home.
  • While supply growth may be near a peak now, rising construction prices and higher lending standards will reduce construction starts and reduce supply growth in the future.

Company Profile 

Apartment Investment and Management Co. owns a portfolio of 96 apartment communities with over 26,000 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in the urban and suburban submarkets of Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Cochlear’s FVE Up 9% Driven by a Stronger U.S. Dollar and Lower Expenses

Cochlear implants became the standard of care many years ago for children in developed markets with profound hearing loss or deafness. Large price differentials in the lower range of products result in 80% of revenue being earned in developed markets and 20% in tender-oriented emerging markets. Currently, penetration is still estimated to be under 5%, and Cochlear is at a pivot point as it invests to be adopted more widely by seniors with profound hearing loss. Prevalence of profound hearing loss increases over 65 years and has a steep increase from over 80 years of age. However, hearing aids, not cochlear implants, are the standard of care. Cochlear is investing significantly to grow awareness as well as funding research to support pay or reimbursement.

Financial Strength

The company has typically enjoyed low capital intensity and high cash conversion, affording it to pay out 70% of earnings as a dividend. However, with the confluence of operational weakness due to deferred elective surgeries as a result of the coronavirus, a peak in the capital cycle, and a patent infringement penalty becoming payable, the company faced a liquidity crunch. Consequently, it completed an AUD 850 million equity raise in fiscal 2020, adding an additional 10% to shares on issue and we forecast the company to carry no net debt for the foreseeable future. The company is not acquisitive and organic growth is driven by R&D spending of roughly 12% of revenue per year.

Wide-moat Cochlear’s fiscal 2021 underlying NPAT rebounded 54% to AUD 237 million following the resumption of elective surgeries. As vaccination rates increase, the firm anticipates a continued recovery and provided fiscal 2022 NPAT guidance of AUD 265 million-285 million. The guidance is based on a USD/AUD exchange rate of 0.74 and doesn’t factor in material disruption from COVID-19. Our fair value increases by 9% to AUD 175, driven by our forecast 0.72 USD/AUD exchange rate from 0.77 prior. We also decreased our long-term assumptions for the tax rate and R&D investment as a percentage of sales to 25% and 12%, respectively, from 27% and 13% prior. 

Fiscal 2021 implant sales grew 19% constant-currency on 15% growth in unit sales. Despite a much stronger USD, our revised fiscal 2022 revenue forecast of AUD 1,627 million implies just 9% growth on fiscal 2021. Shares still screen as overvalued with our forecast five-year revenue growth of 9% unchanged. Cochlear declared a final dividend of AUD 1.40 per share with full-year dividends representing a 71% dividend payout on underlying NPAT but unfranked as a result of fiscal 2020 losses.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Continued strong top-line growth is likely to be more challenging and dependent on growing penetration in emerging markets and adults in developed markets.
  • The more reliable annuitylike revenue stream from sound processor upgrades is forecast to contribute an increasingly larger proportion of group earnings as it is driven by a growing installed base.
  • The company enjoys low capital intensity and high gross margins and cash conversion, enabling Cochlear to afford a 70% dividend payout ratio in a typical year.

Company Profile 

Cochlear is the leading cochlear implant device manufacturer with around 60% global market share. Developed markets contribute 80% of group revenue where cochlear implants are the standard of care for children with severe to profound hearing loss. The company also actively targets the growing cohort of seniors in developed markets. Tender-oriented emerging markets contribute the remaining 20% of group revenue. Main products include cochlear implants, bone-anchored hearing aids, or BAHA, and associated sound processors. In fiscal 2020, 49% of revenue came from the Americas, 35% from EMEA, and 16% from the Asia-Pacific segment.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Oversupply Issues Are Behind Inghams, but Mix Shift to Drag in the Near Term

competition in poultry is intense. Poultry is largely commoditised, and Inghams possesses limited opportunity to differentiate its products, leading to our view that the firm lacks a sustainable competitive advantage required to award an economic moat. Further, Inghams’ customer base is highly concentrated, with the majority of its total sales comprising five customers, including supermarket giants Woolworths and Coles, and quick-service restaurant KFC. Population growth, relative affordability, and changes in consumer preferences have driven chicken consumption to all-time highs in Australia and New Zealand. 

Per capita chicken meat consumption in both Australia and New Zealand has steadily grown at a low-single-digit CAGR over the last decade. Chicken remains the cheapest meat by a significant margin, with the per-kilo retail price of chicken less than half that of pork, lamb, and beef. This price advantage is supported by favourable production dynamics, notably chicken’s superior food conversion ratio, or FCR. The chicken industry remains highly efficient in translating feed into live weight for production, with producers able to convert feed at a rate that is about 1.5 times more efficient than pork and 4 times more efficient than beef. The chicken FCR, measured by kilograms of feed required to produce one kilogram of meat, has fallen from over 2.5 in 1975 to less than 1.8 today.

Financial Strength 

Given relatively high lease-adjusted leverage, and slim operating margins, we rate Inghams’ balance sheet as weak–stronger than poor as we do not see risk of a dilutive capital raising. Net debt/EBITDA improved in fiscal 2020 to 1.2 at June 30, 2021, due principally to earnings recovery and tighter capital expenditure amid COVID-19 uncertainty over the year. This is down from 1.8 in fiscal 2020 and 1.3 in fiscal 2019 following the capital return and share buyback over fiscal 2019. Given heavy investment into automation and operational efficiency, capital expenditure requirements have been elevated, peaking at AUD 106 million during fiscal 2019 at 4% of revenue. 

Our fair value estimate for Inghams to AUD 3.70 from AUD 3.60 due to the time value of money boost to our financial model. Inghams’ fiscal 2021 underlying net profit of AUD 87 million matched our estimates and was at the top end of management’s guidance range. Inghams declared a fully franked final dividend of AUD 9 cents, bringing the full-year distribution to AUD 16.5 cents per share, implying a payout ratio of 71% of underlying EPS. Government-imposed shutdowns shift poultry demand from restaurants to retail, creating inefficiencies as Inghams is forced to adjust production lines. 

Poultry producers struggled to keep up with pantry-stocking and panic buying in March and April 2020, but this sales momentum was not maintained, and the poultry industry entered fiscal 2021 in oversupply. The chicken industry remains highly efficient in translating feed into live weight for production, with producers able to convert feed at a rate that is about 1.5 times more efficient than pork and 4 times more efficient than beef–leading to cost-efficient processing and a smaller environmental footprint. We expect low-single-digit growth in annual per capita chicken meat consumption to 53kg by fiscal 2026, before moderating as chicken consumption approaches saturation.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Inghams benefits from a consumer trend toward protein-rich, fresh, easy-to-prepare meals.
  • Per-capita chicken meat consumption continues to rise as chicken enjoys a relative affordability advantage compared with other meats, such as beef.
  • A shift in Inghams’ sales mix to value-added products could enhance margins.

Company Profile 

Inghams is the largest vertically integrated poultry producer in Australia and New Zealand. The firm enjoys a number-one position in Australia with approximately 40% market share and a number-two position in New Zealand with around 35% share. Inghams supplies poultry products, notably to major Australian supermarkets Woolworths and Coles, and quick-service restaurants McDonalds and KFC. Sales are heavily skewed toward poultry, which includes the production and sale of chicken and turkey products.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

Sydney Airport Flight Delayed to Fiscal 2022; FVE Maintained

Long distances between major cities in Australasia means flying is a preferred mode of travel. Despite a rival airport scheduled to open in 2026, we expect Sydney Airport to remain the favoured terminal for business and long-haul leisure travellers for the next decade. Revenue is about evenly sourced from aeronautical and other operations. Aeronautical fees are mostly on a per-passenger basis, with base charges negotiated with airlines every five years. Retail is the largest non-aeronautical contributor, accounting for about 23% of pre-COVID-19 revenue.

Duty-free and luxury shopping has threats, given the ability for e-commerce sites to offer lower prices than duty-free, and ESG risks given the reliance on tobacco and alcohol sales. However, in the long run, risks materialising in any particular sub-category should be offset by passenger growth boosting defensive categories such as food, car-rental, parking, souvenirs, and holiday items. Population and passenger growth should aid Sydney Airport as it can increasingly allocate slots away from domestic and toward international flights. International flights account for about 40% of passengers, but about 70% of passenger revenue. 

Financial Strength

Sydney Airport’s financial health is fair, with relatively defensive income offset by high debt. Net debt/EBITDA was a high 14 times in fiscal 2021, up from 7.2 in 2019. Our base case is that by fiscal 2023 debt/EBITDA will be back to a more sustainable level below 8 times, and declining, but under our bear scenario this would not occur until 2025 and would remain elevated over our 10-year discrete forecast period. Management acknowledged the high debt and took appropriate actions to reduce leverage, including cancelling distributions in 2020, delaying capital expenditure, securing additional bank facilities, and raising AUD 2 billion in equity in the September quarter of 2020.

Narrow-moat Sydney Airport’s half-year result showed potential, with domestic traffic recovering to 65% of April 2019 levels. This is negligible for our unchanged fair value estimate of AUD 7.85 per share. The key driver is our unchanged post-virus recovery and passenger growth estimates. An acquisition proposal from IFM was this week increased to AUD 8.45, up from 8.25, but was immediately rejected by Sydney Airport. The consortium’s valuation assumptions are unknown. Bulls on Sydney Airport appear to expect Chinese travellers, about 8% of Australia’s arrivals in 2019, will resume rapid growth as borders reopen.

While the long term is the key driver, the near term is relevant given Sydney Airport’s high debt load. Domestic travel volumes through Sydney Airport in the first half of fiscal 2021 improved on the coronavirus-impacted volumes of the second half of fiscal 2020, but domestic border restrictions have resulted in volumes falling significantly in July. A net debt to EBITDA ratio of 14 times is extreme and will be problematic if Australian international borders remain closed for years into the future. Further, the weighted average maturity of Sydney Airport’s portfolio of debt is about five years, and the group has AUD 500 million in cash and AUD 2.4 billion in undrawn banking facilities, more than enough to cover debt expiries in the next two years.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Sydney Airport’s convenience to the business district and coastal suburbs of Australia’s largest city makes it near impossible to replicate. Rising incomes in nearby nations, and Australia’s growing population bodes well for long-term passenger numbers.
  • A light regulatory regime is unlikely to become significantly more onerous.
  • Sydney Airport has spare landing slots, plus the ability to reallocate slots away from domestic and toward more lucrative long-haul international flights, as passenger traffic grows.

Company Profile 

Sydney Airport has a lease to operate the facility until 2097. As Australia’s busiest airport, it connects close to 100 international and domestic destinations, and handled more than 40 million passenger movements annually until COVID-19 border restrictions in 2020. Regulation is light, with airports setting charges and terms with airlines, and the regulator monitoring the aeronautical and car park operations to ensure reasonable pricing and service. Retail and property operations are free from regulatory oversight, though political and commercial pressure limits Sydney Airport from overly flexing its pricing muscle, particularly as the government owns the rival Western Sydney Airport, set to open in 2026.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Raising Tesla’s FVE to $600 on Improved Long-Term Outlook for AV Software

the company went from a startup to a globally recognized luxury automaker with its Model S and Model X vehicles. In addition to luxury autos, the company also competes in the mid-size car and crossover SUV market with its platform that is used for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. Tesla’s strategy is to maintain its market leader status as EVs grow from a niche auto market to reaching mass consumer adoption. Tesla also invests around 6% of its sales into R&D, focusing on improving its market-leading technology and reducing its manufacturing costs. The company will also move upstream into battery production, with a goal to reduce costs by over 50%. 

Tesla’s extended range EVs are already at range parity with ICE vehicles, which should improve further with plans for its batteries to improve energy density. Tesla also continues to increase its supercharging network, which consists of fast chargers built along highways and in cities throughout the U.S., EU, and China. Tesla also sells solar panels and batteries used for energy storage to consumers and utilities. As the solar generation and battery storage market expands, Tesla is well positioned to grow in this market. 

Financial Strength 

Tesla is in solid financial health as cash and cash equivalents exceeded total debt as of June 30, 2021. Total debt was roughly $9.4 billion, however, total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing (non-recourse debt) was around $4 billion. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $16.2 billion as of June 30, 2021.To fund its growth plans, Tesla has used credit lines, convertible debt financing as well as equity offerings and credit lines to raise capital. In 2020, the company raised $12.3 billion in three equity issuances. 

We are raising our fair value estimate to $600 per share from $570 for narrow-moat Tesla following AI day. Our largest key takeaway from Tesla’s AI day was the progress that the company is making on its Level 3 autonomous vehicle software known as full self driving. The biggest change to our forecast is our long-term outlook for Tesla’s Level 3 autonomous vehicle software. The software, which is currently still in beta testing mode, appears to be closer to a rollout than we had expected. 

Dojo is the supercomputer that Tesla is using to train its AV software. However, over the next several years, the company plans to begin selling AI training to other companies using extra processing space. This should generate operating profits in line with software companies. Finally, Tesla plans to develop humanoid robots that can be used to perform dangerous or repetitive tasks, by creating a repurposed version of the same camera-based autonomous software that it is developing for cars in the humanoid robots, which will be programmed to perform simple tasks.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Tesla has the potential to disrupt the automotive and power generation industries with its technology for EVs, AVs, batteries, and solar generation systems.
  • Tesla will see higher profit margins as the company achieves its plan to reduce battery costs by 56% over the next several years.
  • Through the combination of its industry-leading technology and unique Supercharger network, Tesla offers the best function of any EV on the market, which will result in the company maintaining its market leader status as EV adoption increases.

Company Profile 

Founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, Tesla is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and mid-size sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light-truck, semi-truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2020 were roughly 500,000 units.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.