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Omnicom’s Q3 Results Display Growing Demand for Ad Holding Firms Services

the firm has attained that position less through acquisitions and more through organic growth. With very well-recognized creative agencies and sub-holding companies such as BBDO and DDB, we expect Omnicom to maintain its market position as it generates competitive organic growth, continues to make acquisitions, and increases focus on the faster-growing emerging markets and the overall digital ad markets.

Through various acquisitions, the firm has transitioned from traditional advertising toward becoming a complete solution provider with digital (including online video, social media, and mobile), along with other services such as public relations. Compared with its peers, Omnicom has been relatively quiet on the acquisition front since it ended merger talks with Public is in 2014. However, top-line growth has been in line with or above the other ad-holding firms.

Financial Strength

Omnicom reported mixed third-quarter results as revenue slightly missed the FactSet consensus estimates while the firm beat bottom-line expectations. With strong double digit organic revenue growth, the revenue miss was mainly due to Omnicom’s disposition of ICON in June. Solid organic growth of 11.5% and favorable foreign currency exchange rates were only partially offset by negative impact from agency divestitures (negative 5.9%). Management guided to 2021 full-year organic revenue growth of 9%, which is slightly below our 9.5% projection. Operating margin of 15.8% during the quarter was slightly higher than last year’s 15.6% due to top line growth and lower costs associated with less occupancy and lower travel expenses. The firm expects full-year 2021 operating margin above 15.1% compared with our 15.1% assumption.

Omnicom has a net debt of $210 million, with debt/EBITDA and interest coverage averaging 2.5 and 9, respectively, during the past three years. These ratios will average around 2 and 14 during the next five years. While Omnicom has not been nearly as aggressive in pursuing the acquisition route as some of its peers, cash allocated toward acquisitions and dividends during the past three years has been equivalent to 4% and 32%, respectively, of the firm’s free cash flow.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Omnicom’s management team is very experienced and has delivered solid results over an extended period through a variety of economic environments.
  • Omnicom’s agencies, such as BBDO and DDB, are some of the most acclaimed in the business.
  • The strength of Omnicom’s three major global networks allows the firm to retain even dissatisfied clients by switching them from one award-winning network to another.

Company Profile 

Omnicom is the world’s second-largest ad holding company, based on annual revenue. The American firm’s services, which include traditional and digital advertising and public relations, are provided worldwide, with over 85% of its revenue coming from more developed regions such as North America and Europe.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Aristocrat outspends rivals on research and development improving its competitive position

Aristocrat’s research and development expenditure is unmatched by peers. This investment is the lifeblood of any electronic gaming manufacturer, especially given rapidly changing technology, and allows Aristocrat to maintain game quality, differentiate products from lower-end competitors, and defend its narrow economic moat.

Aristocrat is among the top three global competitors in the highly competitive EGM market, alongside International Game Technology and Scientific Games. EGM sales have been particularly hard-hit as coronavirus-induced shutdowns, social distancing measures, and travel restrictions weigh on the firm’s customers. With less turnover likely up for grabs in the near-term, heavy discounting could weigh on Aristocrat’s profitability in the fiercely competitive electronic gaming machine industry. Aristocrat operates in a market protected from new entrants as stringent regulatory licensing requirements in major markets create barriers to entry for new players.

Financial Strength:

The fair value of Aristocrat has been increased by the analysts by 9% to AUD 36.00 following the announcement of a AUD 5 billion acquisition of U.K.-listed Playtech, AUD 1.3 billion equity raising, and virtual release of fiscal 2021 results.

Aristocrat Leisure is in strong financial health. At March 31, 2021, the company had AUD 1.3 billion net debt, equating to net debt/EBITDA of 1.2- down from AUD 1.6 billion in net debt, equating to net debt/EBITDA of 1.4 at Sept. 30, 2020. EBITDA interest cover is comfortable at over 9 times. With the AUD 1.3 billion capital raising, Aristocrat’s balance sheet is well-capitalised to absorb the AUD 5 billion acquisition of U.K.-listed Playtech, with pro forma net debt/EBITDA of 2.6. Aristocrat is expected to return to paying out dividends from approximately 30% of underlying earnings from fiscal 2021, ramping back up to 40% by fiscal 2022.

Bulls Say:

  • Aristocrat operates in a market protected from new entrants as stringent regulatory licensing requirements in major markets create barriers to entry for new players. 
  • Unlike the mature electronic gaming machine industry, the fast-growing mobile gaming market provides an avenue of strong growth for Aristocrat. 
  • Already boasting a portfolio of highly regarded electronic gaming machines, Aristocrat outspends rivals on research and development allowing the firm to improve its competitive position and protect its narrow economic moat.

Company Profile:

Aristocrat Leisure is an electronic gaming machine manufacturer, selling machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in all Australian states and territories, North American jurisdictions, and essentially every major country. Aristocrat is one of the top three largest players in the space along with International Game Technology and Scientific Games. Through acquisitions of Plarium and more recently Big Fish, Aristocrat now derives a significant proportion of earnings from the faster growing mobile gaming business.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Carnival’s planning for ship deployments drives improved visibility on return to breakeven profits

The global cruise market has historically been underpenetrated, offering long-term demand opportunity. Additionally, in recent years, the repositioning and deployment of ships to faster-growing and under-represented regions like Asia-Pacific had helped balance the supply in high-capacity regions like the Caribbean and Mediterranean, aiding pricing tactics. 

However, global travel has waned as a result of COVID-19, which has the potential to spark longer-term secular shifts in consumer behavior, challenging the economic performance of Carnival over an extended horizon. As consumers slowly resume cruising after a year-plus no-sail halt, cruise operators will have to continue to reassure passengers of both the safety and value propositions of cruising. On the yield side, Carnival is expected to see some pricing pressure as future cruise credits are redeemed in the year ahead, a headwind partially mitigated by a measured return of capacity. And on the cost side, higher spend to implement tighter cleanliness and health protocols could initially inflate spending. Aggravating profits will be the fact that the entire fleet will likely have staggered reintroductions, crimping profitability over the 2021-22 time frame, ceding scale benefits. For reference, as COVID-19 continues to wane, 61% of capacity (50 ships) is expected to be deployed by November.

Financial Strength:

The fair value of Carnival is USD 26.50 which has been raised by the analysts from USD 25 with a view that more than half the fleet (50 ships, 61% capacity) is expected to be deployed by the end of fiscal 2021, giving the better visibility on the return to profitability.

Carnival has secured adequate liquidity to survive a slow resumption of domestic cruising, with $7.8 billion in cash and investments at the end of August 2021. This should cover the company’s cash burn rate over the ramp-up, which is set to increase from the roughly $500 million per month experienced in the first half of 2021 as ship start-up costs arise. Carnival has raised $5.9 billion in debt, $1 billion in equity, and has repriced its $2.8 billion term loan (2025), bolstering financial flexibility. Additionally, Carnival eliminated its dividend ($1.4 billion in 2019), freeing up cash to support operating expense. An additional $3 billion in current customer deposits were on the balance sheet. The company has renegotiated much of its debt, with less than $4.5 billion in short term and current maturities of long term debt coming due over the next year versus $30 billion in total debt.

Bulls Say:

  • As Carnival deploys its fleet, passenger counts and yields could rise at a faster pace than we currently anticipate if capacity limitations are repealed. 
  • A more efficient fleet composition (after pruning 19 ships during COVID-19) may help contain fuel spending, benefiting the cost structure to a greater degree than initially expected, once sailings fully resume. 
  • The nascent Asia-Pacific market should remain promising post-COVID-19, as the four largest operators had capacity for nearly 4 million passengers in 2020, which provides an opportunity for long-term growth with a new consumer.

Company Profile:

Carnival is the largest global cruise company, set to deploy 50 ships on the seas by the end of fiscal 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic wanes. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; and P&O Cruises in Australia. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival’s brands attracted about 13 million guests in 2019, prior to COVID-19.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights Shares

State Street Performing Well, Driven by Asset Appreciation and New Client Wins

Assets under custody or administration grew to $43.3 trillion versus $42.6 billion in the previous quarter and $36.6 in the year-ago period, driven by market appreciation as well as new business wins. 

Fee revenue grew 9% from the year-ago period with servicing fees growing 7%. We attribute the bulk of the servicing fee growth to market appreciation with the remainder from net new business partially offset by fee compression. Assets under custody or administration grew 18% to $43.3 trillion with new servicing wins contribution $1.7 trillion, a healthy number in our view. Management fees grew 10% year over year and 4% sequentially. Money market fee waivers continue to be a headwind but appear to be moderating. Charles River Development, which the firm acquired in 2018, saw annualized recurring revenue growth of 12%.

The firm continues to manage expenses well with expenses down 1% sequentially and flat year-over-year excluding notable items and foreign exchange effects. Looking ahead, we think low-single-digit expense growth is more realistic as productivity growth is balanced with the need to invest in its business and some inflationary pressures.

Given the strong business momentum and equity market tailwinds, State Street raised its full-year outlook with just one quarter left. State Street now expects fee revenue to be up 5% for the year with servicing fee growth of 7.5%-8.5%. Net interest income is expected to be in the range of $475 million-$490 million for the fourth quarter, which implies $1.90 billion-$1.91 billion for the full year. The firm’s tax rate is expected to be on the low end of the 17%-19% range.

Company Profile

State Street is a leading provider of financial services, including investment servicing, investment management, and investment research and trading. With approximately $38.8 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $3.5 trillion assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2020, State Street operates globally in more than 100 geographic markets and employs more than 38,000 worldwide

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Ionis’ Antisense Technology supporting a narrow moat

which seeks to prevent clinical manifestation of ALS in pre-symptomatic patients diagnosed using SOD1 and filament levels. While we could see a path to approval for the drug, either with continued follow-up from the Valor study or with data from Atlas, we continue to see failure as slightly more likely. Biogen’s broad neurology portfolio and pipeline as warranting a wide moat and Ionis’ antisense technology supporting a narrow moat. 

Comapany’s Future Outlook

The Valor study focuses on a small subset of ALS patients: those with the SOD1 mutation, who compose roughly 2% of ALS cases globally. Biogen and Ionis are also studying several other potential ALS drugs that are in earlier stages of development, including BIIB078, in phase 1/2 in patients with the C9Orf mutation (7% of cases, initial data expected in 2022). Biogen and Ionis are moving additional therapies for familial and sporadic (nonfamilial) forms of ALS into testing; for example, a phase 1 study of ataxin-2-targeting ION541/BIIB105 in sporadic ALS (which could address more than 75% of the broader ALS population) started in September 2020. 

Ionis is independently testing ION363 in patients with the FUS mutation (even rarer than SOD1), with phase 3 data expected in 2024. In cardiometabolic diseases, Ionis has several programs in late-stage studies, including the wholly owned APOCIII program (data in 2023, 2024), and Novartis-partnered Lp(a) program (2024 data). Ionis is also poised to enter phase 3 for its PKK-targeting therapy in hereditary angioedema, a competitive niche indication where Ionis has potential to be best in class.

Company Profile 

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is the leading developer of antisense technology to discover and develop novel drugs. Its broad clinical and preclinical pipeline targets a wide variety of diseases, with an emphasis on cardiovascular, metabolic, neurological, and rare diseases. Ionis and partner Biogen brought Spinraza to market in 2016 as a treatment for a rare neuromuscular disorder, spinal muscular atrophy. Ionis subsequently brought two additional drugs to market via its cardiovascular-focused subsidiary Akcea, including ATTR amyloidosis drug Tegsedi (2018) and cardiology drug Waylivra (Europe, 2019).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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LICs LICs

Future Generation Investment Company Announces Bonus Options Issue

Smiling young social worker sitting at table with senior lady and explaining document content to her

Their Fully Franked Full Year dividend is 3.0%. The value of the management and performance fees forgone by the fund managers for the period totalled $3.9 million (June 2020: $3.4 million) and the value of the service providers, including the Board and Investment Committee working on a pro bono basis, totalled $0.7 million (June 2020: $0.5 million).

On 3 September 2021, FGX announced the issue of Bonus Options to shareholders on a one-for-one basis. The options will have an exercise price of $1.48 and can be exercised at any time up until the maturity date of 28 April 2023. The options will be listed under the code FGXOA. 

The options are intended to be issued on 4 October and commence trading on the ASX on 5 October 2021. Options that are exercised on or before 17 November 2021 and shares held at the dividend record date of 22 November 2021 will receive the fully franked interim dividend of 3cps. 

The exercise price is in line with the pre-tax NTA of the Company at the time of the announcement and represents a premium of 3.5% to the closing price at the close of the trading day before the announcement. 

Assuming 100% of shares on issue are held by eligible shareholders on the Record Date (1 October 2021), the maximum number of options that may be issued is 401.26m and if all options are exercised the Company would raise $593.9m.

Investment Portfolio Performance 

investment portfolio performance .png

Company Profile 

Future Generation Investment Company Limited is an investment company incorporated in Australia. The objective of the Fund is to provide exposure to a group of prominent Australian fund managers in a single investment vehicle. The Fund will invest in funds managed by a number of Australian fund managers with diversified exposure to Australian equities.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Citigroup awaiting recovery in Credit Card balances as internal investment spending continues

international corporate banking, and card operations. It’s truly global presence differentiates the bank from all of its U.S.-based peers. With significant revenue coming from Latin America and Asia, the bank is poised to ride the growth of these economies through the coming decade. Because of its wide geographical footprint, Citigroup should remain a bank of choice for global corporations, due to its ability to provide a variety of services across borders. Developing economies should offer an attractive combination of high margins and rapid credit growth over time, especially in comparison with the low rates and declining leverage that is expected to persist in the United States and other Western economies.

On the downside, it’s still difficult to see how some of Citigroup’s lines of businesses fit together. There isn’t any material value creation seen by having multiple retail franchises in different countries, which is the case for Citi, with material operations in the U.S., Latin America, and Asia. Unsurprisingly, the bank’s global consumer franchise has underperformed peers. Citigroup also arguably remains the most complex of the Big Four and still has operational issues to solve, which the Revlon payment fiasco and resultant regulatory scrutiny highlighted once again. Overall, the bank continues to be on a path to improved returns and efficiencies.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate has been increased by the analysts from $78 to $83 as it incorporates a 100% chance of a statutory tax rate of 26% and also the rate hikes starting in late 2022.

Citigroup is in sound financial health. Its common equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 11.7% as of September 2021. As of the end of 2020, the bank reports that $545 billion of its roughly $2 trillion balance sheet takes the form of high-quality liquid assets, giving it a liquidity coverage ratio of 118%, in excess of the minimum of 100%. The bank’s supplementary leverage ratio was 5.9% (excluding relief), in excess of the minimum of 5%. Citigroup’s liabilities are prudently diversified, with just over half of its assets funded by deposits and the remainder of liabilities made up of long-term debt, repurchase agreements, commercial paper, and trading liabilities. Just over $19 billion in preferred stock was outstanding as of December 2020.

Bulls Say:

  • Citigroup is leveraged to the rise of Asia, Latin America, and other emerging markets, while its competitors may struggle with lacklustre loan demand in the U.S. and Western Europe. 
  • A strong economy, higher inflation, and potentially higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel results even higher. 
  • Citigroup still has room for self-help, particularly around better optimizing current operations, and room to release excess capital, both levers to improve returns.

Company Profile:

Citigroup is a global financial services company doing business in more than 100 countries and jurisdictions. Citigroup’s operations are organized into two primary segments: the global consumer banking segment, which provides basic branch banking around the world, and the institutional clients group, which provides large customers around the globe with investment banking, cash management, and other products and services.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund: An impressive sustainable strategy with strong foundations

ESG characteristics and contribute towards the advancement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, or SDGs. The investment process implements negative and positive screens and is based on a sustainable charter developed by the Sustainable Share Fund Compliance Committee. The negative screen seeks to eliminate companies that are involved in activities that are harmful to society. The positive screen aims to discover companies that make a constructive impact on society in areas of economic, environmental, and social development by making a net contribution to one or more of the UN SDGs. The fundamental research focuses on discovering undervalued companies in or entering an earnings upgrade cycle.

Portfolio:

The portfolio typically contains around 35-55 companies, which support the UN Sustainable Development Goals and have strong ESG practices. However, the stocks selected for the portfolio must also have attractive investment fundamentals and underestimated earnings growth potential. A composite research model houses the overall research process, blending ESG evaluations, qualitative analysis, and quantitative assessments. Stocks that score highly in the composite research model populate the biggest active weightings in the portfolio, though the maximum position is restricted to plus or minus 5% of the index weight. Companies that are involved in gambling, alcohol, and tobacco or mine fossil fuels, uranium, and gold are excluded from the portfolio.

People:

Johan Carlberg, AllianceBernstein’s former director of Australian equities, leads Alphinity, and his former AllianceBernstein colleagues Andrew Martin, Stephane Andre, and Bruce Smith all share investment duties. Andre and Smith are the portfolio managers of this strategy. In 2020, two new fundamental analysts were employed: Andrey Mironenko and Jacob Barnes. In addition, an ESG & sustainability manager, Jessica Cairns, was hired in 2020; she supports the strategies’ assessment and integration of ESG-related matters. Cairns also supports the strategy’s Compliance Committee and is involved in its efforts to define an investment universe that considers companies’ contribution towards achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Performance:

Alphinity took over investment management of this fund in late 2010. Alphinity Sustainable Share has outperformed the category index (S&P/ASX 200) and most category peers over three, five, and 10 years to 31 July 2021, on a trailing returns basis. Stocks that played a role in this solid performance include IDP Education, Fortescue, CSL, Goodman Group, and Lifestyle Communities.

(Source: https://www.alphinity.com.au/performance/)

Price:

Analysts find it difficult to analyse expenses since it comes directly from the returns. The share class on this report levies a fee that ranks in middle quintile. This share class is expected to deliver positive alpha relative to the category benchmark index. 


(Source: Morningstar)                                                                       (Source: Morningstar)       

About Fund:

Alphinity was founded in 2010 by Johan Carlberg, Andrew Martin, Bruce Smith, and Stephane Andre, with Stuart Welch joining in 2017. The team structure is relatively flat, with all five senior team members being portfolio managers and undertaking company research. However, for more than a decade, Andre and Smith have made the major decisions on stock selection and portfolio construction for this strategy. The portfolio managers on stock research are capably supported by two fundamental research analysts, senior quantitative analyst, and senior trader. Alphinity Sustainable Share’s strong foundations–including experienced portfolio managers, disciplined multifaceted process, and comprehensive commitment to environmental, social, and governance-focused investments.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

TSMC Q3 Profits Top Our Expectations ;Strong Long-Term Outlook Trumps Near-Term Supply Chain Woes

The firm has long benefited from semiconductor firms around the globe transitioning from integrated device manufacturers to fables designers. The rise of fabless semiconductor firms has been sustaining the growth of foundries, which has in turn encouraged increased competition.

To prolong the excess returns enabled by leading-edge process technology, or nodes, TSMC initially focuses on logic products, mostly used on central processing units, or CPUs, and mobile chips, then focuses on more cost-conscious applications. The firm’s strategy is successful, illustrated by the fact it’s one of the two foundries still possessing leading-edge nodes when dozens of peers lagged.

The two long-term growth factors for TSMC: First, the recent consolidation of semiconductor firms is expected to create demand for integrated systems made with the most advanced nodes. Second, organic growth of AI, Internet of Things, and high-performance computing, or HPC, applications may last for decades. AI and HPC play a central role in quickly processing human and machine inputs to solve complex problems like autonomous driving and language processing. Cheaper semiconductors have made integrating sensors, controllers and motors to improve home, office and factory efficiency possible.

TSMC Q3 Profits Beat Our Expectations. Strong LongTerm Outlook Trump Near-Term Supply Chain Woes

During the third-quarter revenue was TWD 415 billion, up 11.4% from the previous quarter and in line with our forecasts. Gross and operating profit rebounded 1.2 and 2.1 percentage points respectively to 51.3% and 41.2%. We think this set of results is commendable, especially amid the market’s concerns of weak smartphone and PC outlook for the second half of 2021.

For the fourth quarter of 2021, TSMC anticipates top line to range between USD 15.4 and 15.7 billion, or 3.5-5.5% sequential growth.Gross and operating margins are guided to range between 51% and 53% and 39%-41% respectively, up 1.5 and 0.5 percentage points against third quarter. 

Management confirmed a fab in Japan, subject to board approval. The fab will focus on specialty applications based on 22nm and 28nm processes, which we believe to be mainly image sensors and high-end automotive microcontrollers. Management treaded carefully regarding price hikes by only saying customers are willing to pay more for the additional value that TSMC can offer in both legacy and leading-edge processes. We are not worried about TSMC hitting physical limits for now, as its suppliers ASML and Tokyo Electron have outlined innovations to sustain performance improvements up to 2030.

Financial Strength 

TSMC has maintained a net cash position for the last 10 year-ends, and together with its low cost of debt, demonstrates the success of its strategy to focus on premium products. The company has issued about TWD 97.9 billion (USD 3.5 billion) in domestic debt at less than 0.7% yield and USD 4.5 billion in overseas debt at less than 3.1% yield year to date in 2021, which is small relative to its balance sheet. We estimate TSMC to maintain a net cash position for the next five years. The annual gross margin has fluctuated between 45% and 51% for the past decade. TSMC has never stopped paying dividends since its first distribution in 2004 with only one minuscule 1% cut in 2008. The company is committed to not cutting dividends. We forecast dividends to increase to TWD 12 per share by 2024.

Bull Says

  • TSMC should consistently earn higher gross margins than competitors because of its economies of scale and premium pricing justified by cutting-edge process technologies. 
  • TSMC wins when customers compete to offer the most advanced processing systems using the latest process technologies. 
  • TSMC will benefit from more semiconductor firms embracing the fabless business model.

Company Profile

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, is the world’s largest dedicated chip foundry, with over 58% market share in 2020 per Gartner. TSMC was founded in 1987 as a joint venture of Philips, the government of Taiwan, and private investors. It went public as an ADR in the U.S. in 1997. TSMC’s scale and high-quality technology allow the firm to generate solid operating margins, even in the highly competitive foundry business. Furthermore, the shift to the fabless business model has created tailwinds for TSMC. The foundry leader has an illustrious customer base, including Apple and Nvidia, that looks to apply cutting-edge process technologies to its semiconductor designs.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Shares

M&T Bank reported solid third quarter earnings; Aims to create value via acquisition with People’s United

efficient operations, and savvy acquisitions. The bank’s main stronghold is its commercial real estate operations in the northeast. M&T has a history of good underwriting and deep, on the ground relationships. M&T has also recently announced it will acquire People’s United Bank, further expanding its geographical reach in the northeast and its product offerings. We like the pricing of the deal and expected cost savings, and hope the acquisition will lead to some added organic growth in the future as well. 

M&T derives about two thirds of its income from net interest income, and with the bank’s cheaper deposit base, it is more sensitive to movements in interest rates. The remaining one third of revenue comes from non banking businesses like wealth management or deposit service fees. Much of the company’s loan book is composed of commercial loans.

The bank has an especially strong position within its commercial real estate operations in the northeastern United States. M&T has one of the largest CRE exposures under our coverage, and this has come under more scrutiny as the pandemic has developed. While certain CRE assets have come under unique pressure, M&T’s underwriting remains solid, and we expect losses to be very manageable.

M&T Bank reported solid third quarter earning; the acquisition and integration of People’s United remains the next catalyst for value creation for M&T Bank

M&T Bank reported solid third-quarter earnings. The bank beat the FactSet consensus estimate of $1.64 per share with reported EPS of $1.90. This equates to a return on tangible common equity of 17.5%. M&T Bank benefitted from a provisioning benefit once again as chargeoffs remain exceptionally low and the bank released some additional reserves.

Nonperforming assets remained stable. Expenses, however, came in a bit hotter than expected, up roughly 9% year over year during the quarter. Management attributed most of this to higher incentive based compensation, which is understandable. On the positive side, fees have done quite well.  Net interest income, meanwhile, was essentially in line with our expectations.

The acquisition and integration of People’s United remains the next catalyst for value creation for M&T Bank.

Key attraction of the transaction 

  • Unique strategic position and enhanced platform for growth: The merger will create the leading community-focused commercial bank with the scale and share to compete effectively.
  • Shared commitment to local communities: Both companies have been long recognized for their community commitments and longstanding support of civic organizations.
  •  Compelling financial impacts: M&T expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to its tangible book value per share. It is further expected that the transaction will be 10-12% accretive to M&T’s earnings per share in 2023, reflecting estimated annual cost synergies of approximately $330 million. 

Financial Strength 

We think M&T is in good financial health. The bank withstood the crisis better than peers and has maintained a credit cost advantage over the current economic cycle. Deposits fund roughly three fourths of total assets. We believe the bank is adequately capitalized, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio over 10% as of September 2021.

Bull Says

  • M&T’s acquisition of People’s United was at a good price and should drive additional future growth. 
  • A strong economy, higher inflation, and potentially higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel results even higher. 
  • M&T has loyal customers, and good management, and investors shouldn’t have to worry much about being burned by bad underwriting.

Company Profile 

M&T Bank is one of the largest regional banks in the United States, with branches in New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. The bank was founded to serve manufacturing and trading businesses around the Erie Canal.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.