Category: Global stocks

Global Stock refer to share that are traded on multiple exchanges with different currencies. For example, if a publicly-traded company issues shares in dollars on the New York Stock Exchange and in pounds on the London Stock Exchange, it is issuing global registered shares. Global stock to a portfolio offers diversification and may provide higher returns. Global stock markets may experience higher levels of volatility than other domestic markets with bigger swings to both the upside and downside.

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Global stocks Shares

Narrow-Moat Nordstrom’s Brand Advantage Provides Stability in a Tumultuous Market

Business Strategy & Outlook

Nordstrom continues to be a top operator in the competitive U.S. apparel market. The firm has cultivated a loyal customer base on its reputation for differentiated products and service and has built a narrow moat based on an intangible brand asset. While the company was unprofitable in 2020 because of the COVID-19 crisis, its profitability returned in 2021, and its brand intangible asset is intact. Despite a rocky couple of years, the Nordstrom’s full-price and Rack off-price stores have competitive advantages over other apparel retailers. The Nordstrom is responding well to changes in its market. The company has about 100 full-price stores, with nearly all of them in desirable Class A malls (sales per square foot above $500) or major urban centers. This as an advantage, as some lower-tier malls are unlikely to survive. Moreover, Nordstrom has a presence in discount retail with Rack (about 250 stores) and significant e-commerce (42% of its sales in 2021). Still, the firm’s full-price business is vulnerable to weakening physical retail, and Rack competes with firms like no-moat Poshmark and narrow-moats TJX and Ross.

Nordstrom unveiled a new strategic plan, Closer to You, in early 2021 that emphasizes e-commerce, growth in key cities (through Local and other initiatives), and a broader off-price offering. Among the merchandising changes, Nordstrom intends to increase its private-label sales (to 20% of sales from 10% now) and greatly expand the number of items offered through partnerships (to 30% from 5% now). The firm set medium-term targets of annual revenue of $16 billion-$18 billion, operating margins above 6%, annual operating cash flow of more than $1 billion, and returns on invested capital in the low teens. As per forecast Nordstrom will consistently generate more than $1 billion in operating cash flow, achieve ROICs in the teens, and reach $16 billion in annual revenue in 2023. However, while they will trend higher, the operating margins will fall marginally shy of 6% in the long run due to intense competition, but this could change if some of the new initiatives are more successful than expected.

Financial Strengths 

The Nordstrom is in good financial shape and will overcome the virus-related downturn in its business. The firm closed April 2022 with nearly $500 million in cash and $800 million available on its revolving credit facility. Although it also had $2.9 billion in long-term debt, most of this debt does not mature until after 2025. Nordstrom’s net debt/EBITDA was a reasonable 2.5 times at the end of 2021. Nordstrom generated $200 million in free cash flow to equity in 2021, but this amount to rise through reductions in operating expenses, working capital management, and moderate capital expenditures. The annual average of about $830 million in free cash flow to equity over the next decade. As Nordstrom’s results have improved, it has resumed cash returns to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases (after suspending them during the pandemic). Over the next decade, buybacks of about $350 million per year and an average dividend payout ratio of 22%. Nordstrom’s capital expenditures were quite elevated prior to 2020. Its store count has increased from 292 at the end of 2014 to nearly 360 today as more than 60 Rack stores have opened since 2014 and the company has expanded into Canada and New York City. Nordstrom has estimated its total investment in Canada and New York at $1.1 billion for 2014-19. The Nordstrom’s yearly capital expenditures will average about $660 million (4% of revenue) over the next decade, well below 2019’s $935 million (6% of revenue).

Bulls Say

  • Nordstrom’s online sales exceeded $6 billion in 2021, making it one of the largest e-commerce firms in the U.S. 
  • As an operator of both an upscale department store and a discount chain, Nordstrom can reach a broader customer base than many competitors. Moreover, the availability of upscale brands at Rack provides an advantage over other discounters. 
  • Nordstrom serves an affluent customer base in its full line stores, which separates it from the many midlevel retailers in malls, and may allow it to overcome the effects of inflation on consumer spending.

Company Description

Nordstrom is a fashion retailer that operates approximately 100 department stores in the U.S. and Canada and approximately 250 off-price Nordstrom Rack stores. The company also operates both full- and off-price e-commerce sites. Nordstrom’s largest merchandise categories are women’s apparel (28% of 2021 sales), shoes (25% of 2021 sales), men’s apparel (14% of 2021 sales) and women’s accessories (14% of 2021 sales). Nordstrom, which traces its history to a shoe store opened in Seattle in 1901, continues to be partially owned and managed by members of the Nordstrom family.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Hannover, a Rare Moat in Reinsurance

Business Strategy & Outlook

Hannover Re is a property and casualty, and life and health reinsurer with property and casualty contributing a little over two thirds of the business’ profits to shareholders. Hannover Re has a slightly less than double-digit market share in both these divisions. This is a business that is characterized by underwriting and carving the deep expertise in niche areas. While this may sound a bit woolly, is that some of this underwriting difference comes from the overall ownership of the underwriting process by Hannover Re’s underwriters. To conceptualize this through lenses of decision-making and responsibility. Whereas in other reinsurance firms, underwriters may need to defer back to a head of risk or perhaps even the c-suit, underwriters at Hannover Re have the authority, experience, and expertise to make and take those decisions more directly. With more of these decisions being made closer to the front line this leads to better standards of underwriting. Furthermore, as per anticipate this leads to stronger client relationships. Because underwriters are client-facing and thus renewals a reiterative negotiation, with Hannover Re’s underwriters in the position to directly negotiate and discuss client needs without the need for constant deferral, clients feel and are more connected to Hannover Re and this drives stronger retention rates. As stronger retention drives lower commission and acquisition costs. 

In addition to the culture of excellence in underwriting with a proven reputation for expertise in specialist lines, Hannover Re benefits from an expense advantage and these two benefits are aligned. For example, with deeper and stronger expertise in underwriting, Hannover Re retrocedes less than comparable European reinsurance companies. As the business has the institutional capacity to absorb this internally with regard to its frontline, coupled with the lower levels of internal referrals outlined, Hannover Re supports more premium per employee than other comparable. The outcome of this is tangible with the business benefiting from at least a 100-basis-point expense ratio advantage.

Financial Strengths 

The Hannover Re has a relatively decent balance sheet. Leverage is quite low with debt standing at around EUR 3.4 billion. That stands in contrast to equity owned by shareholders of EUR 10.9 billion. Admittedly, of that EUR 2.3 billion is attributable to gains on securities classified as available for sale. One has already touched on where Hannover’s balance sheet is weakest with the largest part of Hannover’s market risk attributable to default and spread risk. As dig a bit deeper, one can see that this relates to Hannover’s allocation to credit. Of the EUR 14.2 billion held in corporate bonds, EUR 7.8 billion is held around investment-grade. The shape of the government and semi-government bond portfolios is much more appealing. Hannover has also substantially increased its allocation to equities. Goodwill is however nice and low. Overall, this is a balance sheet that has room for quite a bit of improvement. First and foremost, the allocation to equities very opportunistic. This does not fit in with the typical corporate culture at Hannover Re. The quality of the credit portfolio is also a little light. But in the main this is a business that is not highly leveraged and is very financially disciplined.

Bulls Say

  • Hannover Re has a strong culture of expertise and experience in specialist underwriting. 
  • Hannover Re is a cost leader with one of the lowest proportional amounts spent on administrative expenses. 
  • Hannover Re focuses on organic growth rather than acquisitions. This not only comes through in its lean structure and lower expenses, but also in its approach to capital management and returning capital to shareholders.

Company Description

Hannover Re is a German-based reinsurance company with a strong reputation in writing specialist lines of reinsurance and also a low-cost operating model. The business and its management team are highly disciplined, rarely ever making an acquisition and favoring a strategy of specials over a commitment to a buyback when looking to return excess capital to shareholders. The business to be innovative in finding alternative and unearthed profit sources.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

New CEO Will Take the Helm for Allegion in July 2022

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Allegion, a global leader in security products and solutions, was spun off from Ingersoll-Rand in December 2013. No longer forced to compete for capital from a conglomerate parent, Allegion is now able to employ a more robust acquisition strategy to expand its scale, technological capabilities, and product portfolio. At over 70% of sales and 80% of segment profitability, Allegion’s Americas segment is the firm’s largest and strongest business, with a leading position in locks, exit devices, and door controls. The Americas business has been the key driver of Allegion’s stable, industry-leading profitability, which is a testament to the firm’s market position and pricing power. We expect the Americas business to post mid-to-high single-digit organic growth after the coronavirus-fueled downturn in 2020-21 as the segment capitalizes on increased retrofit and upgrade spending across commercial and residential end markets that is drive by the convergence of electronics and mechanical security solutions, elevated U.S. residential construction, and strategic acquisitions. The segment’s already strong profit margins should benefit from a mix-shift to higher-priced electronics products and operating leverage on increased volumes, partially offset by structurally lower profit margins from the acquired access technologies business.

 We believe that the company’s international businesses are subscale, which factors into the segment’s weak margin performance relative to Allegion’s strong Americas segment; however, the company is working diligently to keep strengthening these businesses through restructuring, channel development, and strategic acquisitions that build scale and expand the company product portfolio. These initiatives appear to be working as the international segment reported record profitability in fiscal 2021 (11% adjusted operating margin). We expect international segment profitability will continue to improve as these initiatives take hold. Like the Americas segment, this segment should also benefit from the convergence of electronic and mechanical security technology

Financial Strengths:  

As part of the spinoff transaction in 2013, Allegion paid a $1.3 billion one-time dividend to Ingersoll-Rand. Allegion issued a commensurate amount of debt in 2013 to fund the dividend to its former parent. Since then, Allegion’s gross debt/EBITDA leverage ratio has improved to approximately 2.0 currently (based on our estimate of 2022 adjusted EBITDA). Management continues to target an investment-grade rating on its debt going forward. Allegion has approximately $1.4 billion of outstanding debt, which consists of approximately $250 million outstanding on the company’s term facility, $400 million of 3.2% senior notes due in 2024, $400 million of 3.55% senior notes due in 2027, and $400 million of 3.5% senior notes due in 2029. In 2021, Allegion incurred about $50 million of net interest expense and generated approximately $618 million of adjusted EBITDA, which equates to a comfortable EBITDA coverage ratio of about 12 times. We think Allegion’s use of leverage is reasonable, and the company’s free cash flow generation should comfortably support its debt service requirements and future capital allocation decisions. Given the firm’s reasonable use of leverage and consistent free cash flow generation, we believe Allegion’s financial health is satisfactory.

Bulls Say: 

  • Allegion’s strong market position and pricing power in North America should continue to support the firm’s stable, industry-leading profitability. 
  • The convergence of electronic and mechanical security products and increased infrastructure spending should drive sales growth and margin expansion opportunities. 
  • Allegion generates strong free cash flow and is a balanced capital allocator. The company can continue to use its free cash flow to increase its dividend, repurchase shares, and make value-accretive acquisitions and invest in lead-edge technology ventures.

Company Description:  

Allegion is a global security products company with a portfolio of leading brands, such as Schlage, von Duprin, and LCN. The Ireland-domiciled company was created via a spinoff transaction from Ingersoll-Rand in December 2013. In fiscal 2021, Allegion generated 68% of sales in the United States. The company mainly competes with Swedish-based Assa Abloy AB and Switzerland-based Dormakaba.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks

Opportunities from Solid Brand Demand Supports Mid-Single-Digit Sales Growth at Constellation Brand

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

While Constellation Brands historically made its bones as a winery and distillery, we now view the firm as one of the most stellar brewers across our global coverage. After parlaying AB InBev’s antitrust quandary (allowing it to acquire Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo) into exclusive U.S. ownership rights to brands like Corona and Modelo, we see the firm’s overall Mexican beer portfolio as auspiciously situated at the confluence of unwavering secular and demographic trends. With an enviable growth profile and best of breed margins, we have confidence that the beer business can thrive even amid an evolving industry landscape. The increase in political, social, and cultural clout of the Hispanic population in the U.S. is widely expected to continue, which augurs well for Constellation’s intangible assets. The firm is not resting on its laurels, however, as it continues to expand its addressable market by widening the gamut of categories in which it competes. One of the primary avenues through which it is seeking to do this is innovation, with line extensions like Corona Refresca being a quintessential illustration. Management is looking for 25% of its growth outlook to be driven by innovation, a mark we think is achievable given the broad resonance of its trademarks. Another avenue is through acquisition, currently embodied by its controlling stake in Canopy Growth. Even as the outlook for cannabis in the U.S. remains uncertain, we remain sanguine on the optionality that this investment affords. 

The firm’s wine and spirits business should offer some stability, after the divestiture of lower-quality brands, allowing Constellation to place more intentionality behind its “high growth, high margin” long-term strategy. However, in our opinion, the remaining brands (such as Meiomi, Kim Crawford, Svedka vodka, and High West craft whiskey) will still face rife competition. Constellation’s foray into explosive-growth categories like hard seltzer have demanded nontrivial investment, given the competitive intensity and brand equity already built up by the incumbents. Nevertheless, we believe the experience of the management team will allow the firm to navigate these risks.

Financial Strengths:  

Constellation Brands’ financial health looks sound to us, and is markedly improved from the precarious positions of the past. Management’s internally calculated leverage ratio (based on adjusted EBITDA) rose to 5 times in order to fund its 2013 acquisition of the perpetual rights to the Mexican beer portfolio, and after steadily reducing it over the next four years, leverage rose again to over 4 times in order to fund the second-round Canopy investment. Nevertheless, we see levels declining to 3.4 by the end of fiscal 2022, thanks to the firm’s robust cash flow, and the prior redemption notes with near-term maturities. Constellation has spun off healthy free cash flow in the low-20s as a proportion of sales on average over the past three years. This is quite the feat when juxtaposed with its hefty capital outlays to solidify and expand its production capacity in Mexico. Capital expenditures have averaged roughly 11% since it purchased the Mexican beer business, versus the 5%-7% that is typical across our brewing coverage. We expect a couple more years of elevation as management makes capital investment to make up for its failed Mexicali expansion, after which normalization (combined with improving margins and working capital management) should support free cash flow for reinvestment and cash returns to shareholders. Given the Canopy investment, management has indicated it plans to avoid transformative acquisitions, but with leverage now at more comfortable levels, we expect cash flow will primarily be deployed toward capacity, share buybacks, and its dividend (instituted in fiscal 2016). There is ample liquidity to fund its operations; in addition to its cash flow and over $200 million in cash as of February 2022, it has access to a $2 billion revolving credit facility.

Bulls Say: 

  • Constellation Brands essentially monopolizes the U. S. market for Mexican beer imports, which augurs well for its positioning given the country’s large Hispanic population. 
  • The ability to parlay the Corona trademarks into different categories is a testament to the broad resonance of the brand and is evidenced by robust initial consumer takeaway of Corona Hard Seltzer. 
  • As we get more clarity regarding what the contours of cannabis legalization will look like in the U.S., the Canopy investment could yield significant upside.

Company Description:  

Constellation Brands is the largest multi-category alcohol supplier in the U.S. The business is anchored by a portfolio of Mexican beer trademarks, including Corona and Modelo, for which it acquired exclusive and perpetual U.S. ownership from AB InBev. The latter had to divest these rights due to antitrust mandates as it consummated its 2013 acquisition of dominant Mexican brewer, Grupo Modelo. Constellation’s wine/spirits business has recently transitioned, divesting several lower-margin assets, including myriad wine brands and its Ballast Point craft beer brand. The firm imports most products after manufacturing them abroad, going to market through independent wholesalers. It owns 36% of Canopy Growth, a leading provider of medicinal and recreational cannabis products

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Thomson Reuter’s Focus on Streamlining Its Business Sets the Stage for Strong EBITDA Growth

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

For most of the 2010s, Thomson Reuters was a laggard relative to its information services peers, in our view. Since deciding to spin off its Refinitiv financial and risk operations to London-based LSE Group, we believe the firm has gained more focus. Some of its past offerings have been clunky, and we believe efforts to streamline its business should lead to meaningful margin expansion and higher retention in the years ahead. We view Thomson Reuters’ legal offerings as the firm’s crown jewel. The company’s Westlaw offering serves as an important research service for lawyers. Thomson Reuters’ main competitor in the space is RELX’s LexisNexis, but given the critical nature of the information being sought, many law firms subscribe to both services. 

The firm’s other two main businesses are its corporate and tax and accounting segments. We believe these three units will constitute the core of Thomson Reuters’ operations going forward, as the other two segments are news, which operates with razor-thin margins, and print, which is in runoff. The new Thomson Reuters is poised to operate as more of an operating company and less of a holding company, the merits of which we appreciate. The firm should be able to double down on industry-leading software like Westlaw in the legal segment and Checkpoint in tax and accounting, leveraging a customer base that includes the Big Four global accounting firms and virtually all the top 100 U.S. legal and accounting firms in some capacity. In our view, the stickiness of the firm’s products in legal and accounting (which overlap almost completely with corporate) should help Reuters navigate a piecemeal pivot to cloud software, or SaaS offerings, with minimal attrition

Financial Strengths:  

At the end of 2021, the company had a net debt/EBITDA ratio (the value of debt obligations outstanding less cash and equivalents divided by adjusted EBITDA) of 1.6 times, a substantial improvement from 2016, when debt stood at about 2.5 times EBITDA. Total debt outstanding was $3.7 billion with $0.8 billion in cash. The firm has no maturities until November 2023. We expect that over time, Thomson Reuters will reduce its stake in LSE Group and use its proceeds for activities that better align with the firm’s strategy. Thomson Reuters has the ability to sell to cover tax gains, but after that, it can begin to sell batches of LSE Group stock. We expect the firm to look for acquisition opportunities. Notably, its government business is a fast grower and the firm could enhance its government offerings with acquisitions. We believe the firm has ample capacity to pursue acquisitions.

Bulls Say: 

  • The pivot to a software-intensive model could lower customer acquisition costs, allowing the firm to drive growth through previously inaccessible small and midsize legal and tax firms. 
  • Increasing regulatory complexity and requirements for a library of previous years of regulations increase barriers to entry, reduce competition, and strengthen advantages in the legal and tax and accounting segments. 
  • A renewed focus and new management following the Refinitiv divestment could see margins improve, driving profitability.

Company Description:  

Thomson Reuters is the result of the $17.6 billion megamerger of Canada’s Thomson and the United Kingdom’s Reuters Group in 2008 and the 2018 carve-out of its finance and risk business, Refinitiv, in which it holds a 45% stake. In 2019, the company agreed to exchange its 45% stake in Refinitiv for a 15% stake in LSE, which closed in early 2021. Since the divestiture, the company is more concentrated on selling its flagship legal data and software, Westlaw, and its tax accounting software, Onesource. Reuters sees roughly 80% of revenue and 70% of expenses attributed to the United States, while the remainder (largely through the global print and Reuters News segments) is distributed across Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. 

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Less than 55% of Millicom customers have a 4G LTE smartphone today, but this figure is up from 30% three years ago

Business Strategy and Outlook

After several years of restructuring, Millicom is now best thought of as a collection of investments in Latin American telecom businesses. It is likely for the firm to spend the next couple years primarily operating its businesses rather than reshaping its portfolio, allowing the firm to more clearly demonstrate its ability to generate cash flow. Millicom’s subsidiaries have provided wireless service in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Bolivia, and Paraguay since the early 1990s, giving it the largest market share in most of these countries. In addition to the wireless business, Millicom has invested heavily, both organically and through M&A, to build cable infrastructure, carving out solid market share in the fixed-line market as well—it is the internet access leader in Guatemala, Panama, Bolivia, Honduras, and Paraguay and the second largest in Colombia and El Salvador. Millicom can offer converged fixed-line and wireless services to nearly 13 million homes and businesses across a footprint that encompasses a population of about 120 million people. 

Favorable market structures following recent consolidation should also benefit Millicom. In Guatemala, which is now the firm’s most important market following the buyout of minority investors, it is the clear market leader and competes almost exclusively against America Movil. Other markets with only one substantial competitor include Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Only Colombia, where Millicom is a distant third in the wireless market, presents an especially difficult competitive situation, but the firm has made progress gaining scale recently. Wireless penetration in these markets is already high, but data services still provide significant growth opportunities. Less than 55% of Millicom customers have a 4G LTE smartphone today, but this figure is up from 30% three years ago. Broadband penetration is also low in the countries Millicom serves at around 30%. As demand for high-quality connectivity grows, it is believed, Millicom’s financial performance will improve nicely in the coming years.

Financial Strength

Millicom historically carried below-average leverage, with a net debt around 1.0-2.0 times EBITDA. However, acquisitions and the buyout of minority investors in Guatemala has caused the debt load to swell. Net debt, including lease obligations, stood at $7.8 billion, or 3.4 times EBITDA, at the end of 2021. The firm expects to complete a $750 million equity rights offering during 2022 to fund a portion of the Guatemala transaction that will bring net leverage down to 3.0 times. Management has had a net leverage target of 2.0 times EBITDA since its portfolio reshuffling began in 2018 but hasn’t come close to that mark yet. Millicom cut its dividend to $1 per share from $2.64 in early 2020 and then eliminated the pay out entirely later in the year, saving about $265 million annually. While the 2.0 target remains a long-term goal, management expects leverage to decline to only about 2.5 times EBITDA by the end of 2025, with share repurchases resuming in 2023. By experts’ calculation, this target implies the firm could repurchase $1.5 billion of its shares over the next four years, or about 60% of its current market capitalization. It is favoured the firm take a more aggressive approach to reducing leverage given the volatility of the markets in which it operates. About 55% of the consolidated debt load and lease obligations sits at the individual operating subsidiaries, with Millicom guaranteeing less than 5% of these obligations. Most subsidiaries carry modest debt loads, most below 2 times net leverage. The businesses in Paraguay and Costa Rico are exceptions, with more than 3 times net leverage. Leverage in Panama is also elevated at 2.7 times EBITDA. At the parent level, Millicom had $3.8 billion in net debt outstanding at the end of 2021. The Guatemalan business subsequently issued $900 million of debt to fund part of the minority investor buyout, freeing up cash to repay parent-company obligations. The Guatemalan operation now carries net leverage of about 1.8 times.

Bulls Say’s

  • Millicom holds strong wireless market share across nine Latin American countries with a combined population of nearly 120 million people and owns highquality cable networks that can provide broadband to 13 million homes and businesses in the region. 
  • Broadband penetration remains low across the region and only about half the population owns a 4G smartphone, providing a long runway for growth. 
  • Millicom should be able to improve its margins and cash flow as it grows its converged customer base.

Company Profile 

Millicom offers wireless and fixed-line telecom services primarily in smaller, less congested markets or in less developed countries in Latin America. Countries served include Bolivia (100% owned), Honduras (67%), Nicaragua (100%), Panama (80%), El Salvador (100%), Guatemala (100% following the buyout of minority partners in 2021), Paraguay (100%), Colombia (50%), and Costa Rica (100%). The firm’s fixed-line networks reach nearly 13 million homes and businesses while its wireless networks cover about 120 million people. Increasingly, Millicom offers a converged package that may include fixed-line phone, broadband, and pay television in conjunction with wireless services. The firm hopes to spin off portions of its tower business and mobile payments operation over the next couple years. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Despite Inflationary Headwinds and Competitive Angst, Wide Moat Coca-Cola Maintains Its Dominance

Business Strategy & Outlook

Coca-Cola’s ubiquity and brand resonance in the nonalcoholic beverage category has been going strong for over 130 years, and the structural dynamics that will ensure this persists. Despite competing in a mature industry, the firm is adequately exposed, either directly or indirectly, to growth vectors such as premium water and energy drinks. Moreover Coke will be able to continue extracting incremental value growth from the carbonated soft drink, or CSD, market. The runway for growth is supported by ample room for share gains as well as geographic tailwinds. The Coke derives more than 40% of sales from developing or emerging economies with burgeoning middle classes and low per-capita CSD consumption. The commercial drinks will become a larger portion of beverage consumption globally and see the company executing against each of its market-specific strategies.

In developed markets, where Coke has firmly established the resonance of its brands, its strategies are geared toward profit growth driven by innovation. In developing markets, where its trademarks are visible but competition is rife, differentiation and eventual migration into higher-margin offerings is key. In emerging markets where the firm is less established, it is focused on driving volume growth even at the expense of modest margin dilution. These approaches as prudent and believe the decision to cull peripheral brands (going from 400 master brands to 200) will facilitate execution. Coke’s future trajectory is not without risk, as it faces secular headwinds in terms of consumer sentiment, well-capitalized rivals, and lingering COVID-19 disruption in some international markets. Still, with a more aligned and technologically capable distribution system, digitization initiatives to drive engagement and operational efficiency, and vast financial resources, the firm is more than equipped to defend its turf. Ultimately, Coke’s overarching goal is to put drinks in more hands in more places more quickly than any competitor. This pithy synopsis represents the crux of the firm’s competitive positioning, underpinned by its cost advantage and intangible assets.

Financial Strengths

The Coca-Cola is in stellar financial health. The firm deliberately skews its capital structure toward debt, on the premise that the lower-cost financing ultimately increases returns to shareholders. While no one can necessarily agree, the bottom line is the firm should not have any problem managing its debt load, given its margin and free cash flow profile. Coke regularly generates free cash flow above $8 billion (in the high-teens to low-20s range as a percentage of sales), even amid the disruption caused by COVID-19. Even higher levels driven by improving margins and working capital initiatives. Management has made commendable strides toward top-tier receivable and payable management, and the supply chain initiatives combined with a reworked bottler system should yield modest improvements in inventory management. Moreover, Coca-Cola boasts strong coverage ratios above its peers. One of the better illustrations of Coke’s financial strength is its ability to operate one of the larger domestic commercial paper programs. Issuing commercial paper is an integral part of the company’s cash management strategy, and the fact that investors and financial institutions are consistently willing to finance the company at such low rates lends credence to the reliability of its cash flows. The firm typically issues new commercial paper once it pays off a previous maturity, and the capacity to persistently finance its operations cheaply reinforces its financial strength. Management has a long-term target net-debt level of 2-2.5 times EBITDA, which is reasonable. Leverage levels ticked up as management tapped capital markets to shore up liquidity amid the coronavirus pandemic, but the recovery in the business and the spigot of free cash have already brought leverage back within this comfortable range; while it may oscillate from time to time, it to remain manageable longer term.

Bulls Say

By volume, Coke is almost 3 times the size of its next largest competitor in the global nonalcoholic ready to-drink market, which begets scale benefits.

Despite a greater focus on marketing efficiency, its ad budget is still unparalleled and should help maintain consumer awareness and brand relevance.

The recently established platform services group should allow Coke to more effectively leverage data and improve technological capabilities across its mammoth production and go-to-market system.

Company Description

Coca-Cola is the largest nonalcoholic beverage entity in the world, owning and marketing some of the leading carbonated beverage brands, such as Coke, Fanta, and Sprite, as well as no sparkling brands, such as Minute Maid, Georgia Coffee, Costa, and Glaceau. Operationally, the firm focuses its manufacturing efforts early in the supply chain, making the concentrate (or beverage bases) for its drinks that are then processed and distributed by its network of more than 100 bottlers. Concentrate operations represent roughly 85% of the company’s unit case volume. The firm generates most of its revenue internationally, with countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Japan being key markets outside of the U.S.
(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Aurora Again Punishes Existing Shareholders with Massive Dilution from Latest Equity Raise

Business Strategy & Outlook

Aurora cultivates and sells cannabis predominantly in Canada but also exports it to the global medical market. Aurora considers itself a medical cannabis company first but has benefited from the legalization of recreational cannabis in Canada in 2018. Recreational use now accounts for nearly 40% of gross sales, although this share is slightly lower than peers. The Canadian medical market to grow slowly at roughly 1.5% as recreational legalization takes customers. The robust recreational growth of roughly 15%, driven by the conversion of illicit-market consumers into the legal market and new cannabis consumers.

Aurora has expanded its global medical exports, currently shipping to more than 20 countries. The global market looks lucrative, given higher realized prices and the growing acceptance of cannabis’ medical benefits. Exporters must pass strict regulations to enter markets, protecting early entrants like Aurora. Continued growth in its medical exports has helped Aurora see volume and price growth even as its domestic market has struggled during pandemic lockdowns. The roughly 20% average annual growth through 2031. The U.S. will change federal law to recognize states’ choices on legality within their borders, unlocking the fastest-growing and largest potential cannabis market, which as per the estimate will be more than five times larger than the Canadian market. At present, Aurora would not benefit from a change in U.S. federal law on THC cannabis, as its only exposure is through hemp-derived CBD products through its May 2020 acquisition of Reliva. Aurora is one of the few Canadian producers with no standing deals with a U.S. multistate operator, although it believes it would be able to draw an attractive partner should the law change.

Unlike some of its peers, Aurora doesn’t have the financial backing of a bigger company. This forces it to rely more heavily on equity market access while its peers can rely on the deep pockets of a large partner for capital. This raises the risk of massive equity dilution to avoid running out of cash. Most recently, it issued equity at a 60% discount to the fair value estimates in May 2022.

Financial Strengths

Aurora’s financial health has been a lingering concern but is improving. At the end of its third quarter of fiscal 2022, the company had about CAD 334 million of convertible notes compared with a market capitalization of roughly CAD 700 million. The notes are due in 2024, so the company has some time. The company raised another $150 million in May 2022 by selling shares and warrants. The extra cash boosts financial health at a massive cost to existing shareholders. Aurora continues to generate cash losses. This is particularly concerning because the company has limited capital markets access and no major strategic partner backing it. However, since announcing its restructuring program, the company has significantly reduced its cash burn and positive EBITDA is nearing. Aurora’s access to debt markets is limited. Consequentially, the company has relied on equity offerings to fund its cash needs, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders. In fact, shares roughly doubled from March 2020 to March 2021. Having sizable leverage while remaining unprofitable creates additional risk for Aurora. This creates a wide range of possible valuation outcomes for shares amid the significant risk of value destruction. With Aurora shares having fallen over the last several months along with the broader cannabis sector, any share issuances would be even more dilutive.

Bulls Say

Aurora has rationalized its production facilities and head count, significantly reducing its cash burn.

Cannabis cultivation is complicated, including challenging operational ramp-ups and optimization. Aurora’s strategic focus on its cultivation operations will help it achieve lower production costs than peers.

Aurora’s international exposure can deliver high margin sales to help its path to profitability.

Company Description

Aurora Cannabis, headquartered in Edmonton, Canada, cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis through a portfolio of brands that includes Aurora, CanniMed, Daily Special, MedReleaf, and San Rafael ’71. Although the company primarily operates in Canada, it has expanded internationally through medical cannabis exporting agreements or cultivation facilities in more than 20 countries.

(Source: Morningstar)
DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).
This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.
The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require. The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.
The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.
Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.
Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.
The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

No-Moat ABF’s Fair Value Estimate reduced to GBX 2,200

Business Strategy & Outlook

Although the Associated British Foods’, or ABF’s, mass-apparel retail division– Primark–should deliver consistent growth through its expansion over the short term, supported by a reliable performance from the remaining largely commodified food divisions, the company’s potential will be limited over the long term by intense competition and a lack of differentiation, leading to the no-moat rating.

Primark delivered a strong performance over the decade preceding the pandemic and to return to healthy growth rates in the short term. Its business model, which calls for low prices, high volumes, and large stores that offer an enjoyable shopping experience has proven popular with consumers and is likely to fare well in a period of significant cost of living challenges. Over the longer term, however, to see a gradual decline in like-for-like growth rates, and operating margins falling short of pre-pandemic heights. To increased competition, stemming largely from emerging digital-only players, and declining footfall on high streets as more retailers close down stores will hurt Primark’s model given the lack of an online business. These dynamics, along with the smaller store format planned as part of the expansion stand to reduce, Primark’s sales densities and consequently its operating leverage.

In its food businesses, ABF enjoys strong market positions across sugar, ingredients, and animal feed, however, a lack of differentiation for the bulk of the portfolio translates into single-digit operating margins and limited growth opportunities. Despite that, there are some pockets of growth that management is right to explore, such as specialized animal nutrition and an expansion into adjacent markets for its products, such as the alternative meat space for the yeast extracts.

The grocery unit produces food and beverage brands with little pricing power that do not occupy center-stage positions in supermarkets. Growth has been lagging the market, and the segment’s operating margin is significantly lower than that of larger, competitively advantaged consumer goods firms (10% versus midteens).

Fair value and Profit Drivers

The fair value estimate for Associated British Foods is GBX 2,200. The valuation implies a five-year top-line compounded annual growth rate of 6.5%, higher in the near term as Primark rebounds from the COVID-19 disruption. The margins to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the fiscal year 2023, but the steady-state operating margin of 8.8% does not imply an upside to historical averages. The looming competition in the mass apparel space and a gradual deterioration of Primark’s best-in-class operating leverage will impact the retail segment’s margin and limit its contribution to the group’s operating profit to 58% by 2026, consistent with the pre-pandemic share, despite its superior growth prospects. An important driver of the valuation is the assumption regarding the speed of expansion for the Primark chain. Management is targeting a total of 530 stores by September 2026, which implies a significant step up in the average number of store openings to around 30 per year starting with the fiscal year 2023, from an average of 19 over the decade leading up to the pandemic. Although the plan features smaller stores across the US and Iberia, it is overly ambitious given previous guidance misses. As per forecast of 500 stores by 2026 assumes an approximately 20% lower store and floorspace net addition, consistent with the historical under delivery. In the sugar business, the ABF to gradually step- up production to approach 3.5 million metric tons by fiscal 2026. The cost efficiencies due to higher volume production and capacity utilization will partially compensate for lower sugar prices, but the unit’s operating margin should still stay below historical highs to a more sustainable 7% level by 2026, which would translate into a normalized contribution of 8% of the group’s operating profits. In the other segments (agriculture, ingredients, and grocery), the moderate top-line growth (1%-3.5%) and marginal profitability improvements in the ingredients and agriculture segments driven by mix tailwinds as management gradually reposition the portfolio towards faster-growing, margin accretive segments such as specialty animal feed and enzymes.

Bulls Say

  • Primark is in the expansion phase and new store additions will likely drive earnings growth for years to come.
  • Given Primark’s rock-bottom prices and management’s commitment to maintaining price leadership, the retailer is well-positioned to navigate periods of high inflation and appeal to cash-strapped consumers.
  • ABF’s sugar segment is benefiting from Illovo’s strong profitability bedrock, the result of its growing downstream operations and strong regional and local market position.

Company Description

Associated British Foods is a diversified international retail, food, and ingredients group with 130,000 employees and operations in 50 countries across Europe, southern Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Australia. The group sells branded grocery products, grows and processes sugar, supplies farmers with crop input and animal feed, and runs the popular Primark clothing retail chain. It also supplies ingredients like bakers’ yeast, enzymes, lipids, and cereal specialties. Some 40% of sales are in the U.K., and Primark generates more than half of the firm’s operating profit.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Conagra’s Brands Are Performing Well Despite Inflation and Supply Chain Challenges

Business Strategy & Outlook

When CEO Sean Connolly was brought in to turn around a struggling Conagra in 2015, he implemented a new brand building strategy referred to as the Conagra Way. The process calls for using data to identify product attributes that are driving growth and designing products to reflect those traits. The strategy also increases the productivity of marketing investments by shifting spend to the more efficient digital channel and to higher potential brands. In addition, the firm has significantly reshaped its portfolio inorganically, shedding non-branded or noncore businesses and acquiring brands that enhance the firm’s growth and/or profit margins. As a result, in recent years, sales have inflected from declines to growth, and from market share losses to modest gains. The pandemic, which resulted in four and a half years of incremental new buyers and saved the firm hundreds of millions of dollars in customer acquisition costs, will accelerate the benefits Conagra is reaping from these efforts, as many new consumers have been exposed to its new fare. Once the food retail market normalizes post-pandemic, the Conagra can realize 2% annual organic sales growth. In addition, Conagra has identified over $700 million in supply chain efficiencies, which should result in operating margins that exceed 18% over the long term, up from fiscal 2021’s 17.5% metric.

Despite these efforts, an enduring competitive advantage via its brand assets or entrenched retail relationships remains elusive. Conagra maintains many market-leading brands, which makes it an important partner to retailers. However, Conagra’s commitment to maintaining below-average investments in marketing (about 2.4% of revenue on average over the past three years compared with the 4.6% peer average) and research and development (0.5% of revenue compared with the 0.8% peer average) weakens the conviction that Conagra can maintain its preferred status with retailers over the next 10 years, as required for a narrow moat designation.

Financial Strengths

Conagra’s net debt/adjusted EBITDA averaged 2.7 times in the three years before the $10.9 billion Pinnacle Foods acquisition in fiscal 2019. After the deal, leverage reached 5.8 times in fiscal 2019, and the expected share repurchases and additional acquisitions will remain limited until leverage reaches 2.3 times in 2025. Over the next five years, the expected average interest coverage (EBITDA/interest expense) of 8 times, in line with the peer average. One cannot have concerns about the firm’s inability to meet its debt obligations, as cash flows are relatively stable. The model share repurchases increasing meaningfully in 2025 (assuming the absence of acquisitions), with Conagra buying back about 1%-3% of outstanding shares annually, which as a prudent use of cash when the shares trade below the assessment of intrinsic value. The firm repurchased a significant amount of shares in fiscal 2017 and 2018, but as they were trading above the estimate of intrinsic value, one cannot view the transactions as judicious uses of capital. Although Conagra will likely make acquisitions once it reduces debt, one cannot have modeled future transactions, given the uncertain timing and magnitude. Instead, the model excess cash flows being used to repurchase shares. Conagra resumed dividend growth in fiscal 2021, after foregoing increases following the Pinnacle acquisition, to focus on debt reduction. Conagra announced a further 20% increase in the quarterly dividend during fiscal 2022 to $0.3125, and the high-single-digit annual increases thereafter. Over the next 10 years, the Conagra’s payout ratio to range from mid-40% to low-50%. Finally, the firm to spend 3%-4% of revenue on capital expenditures on average each year.

Bulls Say

  • Conagra is utilizing a unique data-driven innovation approach, which has allowed many of its brands to gain market share.
  • After significant portfolio reshaping, now 64% of Conagra’s sales stem from the high growth categories of frozen foods and snacks.
  • Over $700 million in supply chain efficiencies and positive mix should facilitate about 100 basis points of operating margin expansion in the next 10 years to over 18%.

Company Description

Conagra Brands is a packaged food company that operates predominantly in the United States (over 90% of revenue and profits). It has a significant presence in the freezer aisle, with brands such as Marie Callender’s, Healthy Choice, Banquet, and Birds Eye. Other popular brands include Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Slim Jim, Vlasic, Orville Redenbacher’s, Reddi-Wip, Wish-Bone and Chef Boyardee. While the majority of revenue is sold into the U.S. retail channel, 7% of fiscal 2021 sales were to the food-service channel, down from 11% in fiscal 2019 due to the pandemic.

(Source: Morningstar)

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