Category: Dividend Stocks

Companies return profits to shareholders through two main channels, capital gains and income. A high dividend yield indicates that a company is returning a large amount of cash to shareholders relative to the value of the company. This allows investors to maximize their income received relative to their investment amount. The gross dividend is calculated from the net dividend amount paid to shareholders plus the value of any attached franking credits associated with those dividends. A fully franked dividend will have franking credits equal to 30% of the gross dividend value, which can, therefore, represent a significant source of additional value.

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Treasury Wines reported solid earnings in spite of challenges faced during the year

Investment Thesis

  • China’s investigation outcomes are better than expected.
  • There is a significant opportunity to expand its Asian business (reallocation opportunities).
  • Premiumization and good cost control provide opportunities for group margin expansion.
  • The recovery in America’s business could result in significantly higher margins.
  • Currency movements in favour (due to a falling AUD/USD).
  • Additional capital-management initiatives.

Key Risks

  • Further deterioration (or worst than expected) outcome from china tariff / investigation.
  • United States turnaround disappoints.
  • Consumptions of wine decreases in the key market.
  • Unfavorable condition in demand and supply of wine’s global market.
  • Increase competition in key market.
  • Currency fluctuations that are unfavorable (negative translation effect).
  • Changes in Chinese policy and/or demand have an impact on volume growth.

FY21 Results Highlights

  • EBITS of $510.3 Million, was in line with the pcp, on EBITS margin 0.6ppts higher to 19.9%. On an organic basis, EBITS was up +3%, reflecting top-line growth driven by $10-30 Premium portfolio and improved CODB, partially offset by ongoing impacts from the pandemic, significantly reduced shipments to Mainland China (due to import duties) and higher COGS on Australian sourced wine.
  • Strong operating cash flow reflects a lower Californian vintage intake and adjusted Australian vintage, in addition to shift in regional sales mix in Asia. Cash conversion of 100.8% (or 96.9% excluding the changes in non-current luxury and premium inventory) was in line with TWE’s target of 90% or above.
  • Net debt declined $376.5m to $1,057.7m as a net debt to EBITDAS of 1.6x improved from 2.1x at year end. TWE has total available liquidity of $1.2billion at year ended versus $1.4billion at FY20 end.
  • Return on Capital Employed improves 0.6ppts to 10.8%.
  • The board declared a final dividend of 13.0cps, up and resulted in the full year dividend of 28.0cps (equating to payout of 65% of NPAT, consistent with TWE’s long term dividend policy). 

Company Profile 

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is one of the world’s largest wine companies listed on the ASX. As a vertically integrated business, TWE is focused on three key activities: grape growing and sourcing, winemaking and brand-led marketing. Grape Growing & Sourcing – TWE access quality grapes from a range of sources including company-owned and leased vineyards, grower vineyards and the bulk wine market. Winemaking – in Australia, TWE’s winemaking and packaging facilities are primarily located in South Australia, NSW and Victoria. The Company also has facilities in NZ and the US.  Brand-led Marketing – TWE builds their brands through marketing and distributes its products across the world.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Treasury Wines Estates long-term dividend policy

Investment Thesis

  • Chinas investigation outcomes are better than expected.
  • There is a significant opportunity to expand its Asian business (reallocation opportunities).
  • Premiumization and good cost control provide opportunities for group margin expansion.
  • The recovery in America’s business could result in significantly higher margins.
  • Currency movements in favour (due to a falling AUD/USD).
  • Additional capital-management initiatives.

Key Risks

  • Further deterioration (or worst than expected) outcome from china tariff / investigation.
  • United States turnaround disappoints.
  • Consumptions of wine decreases in the key market.
  • Unfavorable condition in demand and supply of wine’s global market.
  • Increase competition in key market.
  • Currency fluctuations that are unfavorable (negative translation effect).
  • Changes in Chinese policy and/or demand have an impact on volume growth.

FY21 Results Highlights

  • EBITS of $510.3 Million, was in line with the pcp, on EBITS margin 0.6ppts higher to 19.9%. On an organic basis, EBITS was up +3%, reflecting top-line growth driven by $10-30 Premium portfolio and improved CODB, partially offset by ongoing impacts from the pandemic, significantly reduced shipments to Mainland China (due to import duties) and higher COGS on Australian sourced wine.
  • Strong operating cash flow reflects a lower Californian vintage intake and adjusted Australian vintage, in addition to shift in regional sales mix in Asia. Cash conversion of 100.8% (or 96.9% excluding the changes in non-current luxury and premium inventory) was in line with TWE’s target of 90% or above.
  • Net debt declined $376.5m to $1,057.7m as a net debt to EBITDAS of 1.6x improved from 2.1x at year end. TWE has total available liquidity of $1.2billion at year ended versus $1.4billion at FY20 end.
  • Return on Capital Employed improves 0.6ppts to 10.8%.
  • The board declared a final dividend of 13.0cps, up and resulted in the full year dividend of 28.0cps (equating to payout of 65% of NPAT, consistent with TWE’s long term dividend policy). 

Company Profile 

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) is one of the world’s largest wine companies listed on the ASX. As a vertically integrated business, TWE is focused on three key activities: grape growing and sourcing, winemaking and brand-led marketing. Grape Growing & Sourcing – TWE access quality grapes from a range of sources including company-owned and leased vineyards, grower vineyards and the bulk wine market. Winemaking – in Australia, TWE’s winemaking and packaging facilities are primarily located in South Australia, NSW and Victoria. The Company also has facilities in NZ and the US.  Brand-led Marketing – TWE builds their brands through marketing and distributes its products across the world.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

PepsiCo Inc Prioritizes Spending to Support Its Brands and Its Advantaged Platform

cola cans and advertisements praising the brand’s taste superiority over Coke. While, as of now PepsiCo is not only considered as beverage behemoth but its its business now extends beyond this industry, with Frito-Lay and Quaker products accounting for over half of sales and over 65% of profits. A diversified portfolio across snacks and beverages can be considered as competitive edge of PepsiCo.

After years of sluggish sales growth and underinvestment, Pepsi has committed to reinvigorating its top line. To that end, it has made significant investments in manufacturing capacity (for example, production lines to meet demand for reformulated packaging), system capacity (route optimization and sales technology), and productivity (harmonization and automation.

These investments can be considered as prudent as they will allow the company to strengthen its key trademarks such as Mountain Dew and Gatorade while deepening its presence in growth markets like sub-Saharan Africa, and also yielding enough cost savings to reinvest and widen profits. Pepsi’s growth trajectory is not without risk, as the company faces secular headwinds such as shifts in consumer behavior. Additionally, changing go-to-market dynamics, such as online commerce that encourages real-time price comparisons and obviates the extent of Pepsi’s retail distribution advantage, allow for more nimble and aggressive competition.

Financial Strength

Pepsi’s financial health can be considered as excellent. While leverage has ticked up due to recent acquisitions the company still has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and robust free cash flow generation. Strong interest coverage ratios also lend credence to the firm’s health in this regard. For the year2020, PespiCo has reported revenue of USD Mil 70,372 while its estimated revenue for the year 2021 is USD Mil 76,632 which is up by 8.9% compared to the previous year. The firm in the year 20220 has reported EBIT of USD Mil 10,080 while its estimated EBIT in the year 2021 is USD Mil 11,746 which is 16.5% up compare to the previous year.The firm has reported free cash flow USD Mil 584 which is 83.8% down compared to the previous year. The major reason for the same is PepsiCo has ramped up strategic investments across the business and booked a slew of nonrecurring cash charge.

Bulls Say

  • In still beverages- a category facing fewer secular challenges, particularly in the U.S.-Pepsi is a much more formidable competitor to Coca-Cola.
  • Pepsi’s global dominance in salty snacks may be underappreciated; with volume share more than 10 times that of the next-largest competitor, the firm benefits from unparalleled unit economics and go-to market optionality.
  • The firm’s consolidated beverage and snack distribution operations, combined with its direct store delivery capabilities, allow for better execution in merchandising.

Company Profile

PepsiCo is one of the largest food and beverage companies globally. It makes, markets, and sells a slew of brands across the beverage and snack categories, including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Doritos, Lays, and Ruffles. The firm uses a largely integrated go-to-market model, though it does leverage third-party bottlers, contract manufacturers, and distributors in certain markets. In addition to company-owned trademarks, Pepsi manufactures and distributes other brands through partnerships and joint ventures with companies such as Starbucks. The firm segments its operations into five primary geographies, with North America (comprising Frito-Lay North America, Quaker Foods North America, and North America beverages) constituting over 60% of consolidated revenue

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights Shares

Woolworths Screens as Overvalued

operating supermarkets and discount department stores. Market capitalization is around AUD 50 billion, with annual sales of over AUD 50 billion. The fair value estimate for narrow-moat Woolworths is AUD 24. The board declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 1.08 for the full fiscal year 2021, equating to a payout ratio of 69%.

Woolworths has a narrow economic moat, characterized by an extensive supermarket store network, serviced by an efficient supply chain operation coupled with significant buying power. It operates in the very competitive supermarket and discount department store segments of the retail sector. Intense competition has taken its toll on margins. Management has reset prices lower to drive foot traffic and increase basket sizes. Volume growth is vital for maximizing supply chain efficiencies.

Australian food sales of over AUD 40 billion represented about 15% of total Australian retail sales in fiscal 2021. The percentage increases substantially if sales are strictly comparable. 

Financial Strength

Woolworths is in a strong financial position with solid gearing metrics. At the end of fiscal 2021, the balance sheet was conservatively geared and EBITDA covered interest expenses 7 times. After the AUD 2 billion share buyback, Woolworth’s investment-grade credit rating is expected to be the same. Woolworths generates large cash flow with significant negative working capital. Cash flow comfortably finances capital expenditure. The balance sheet is robust, and acquisitions are generally bolt-on and funded with cash or existing debt facilities.

Woolworths is well positioned to withstand cyclically weak consumer spending. Woolworths is a defensive stock, with food retailing generating most of group revenue and profit, a solid balance sheet, and a narrow moat surrounding its economic profits. Woolworths last traded price was 40.99 AUD, whereas its fair value is 24 AUD, which makes it an overvalued stock. As per the analysts, the group’s operating earnings will shrink by about a quarter in fiscal 2022 with the demerger of Endeavour.

Bull Says

  • Woolworths’ dominant position in the supermarket sector is entrenched and, coupled with first-class management, suggests that it can maintain leadership in the sector.
  • Woolworths’ operating leverage could lead to a rebound in operating margins, driving cash generation that funds expansion and acquisitions while allowing capital-management initiatives.
  • The refurbishing of the existing supermarket fleet and rollout of revised store formats, with significantly improved service, convenience and product offerings could increase store productivity and lead to higher sales growth.

Company Profile

Woolworths is Australia’s largest retailer. Operations include supermarkets in Australia and New Zealand, and the Big W discount department stores. The Australian food division constitutes the majority of group EBIT, followed by New Zealand supermarkets, while Big W is a minor contributor.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

MFG’s reduced the performance fee for the FY21

Investment Thesis

  • Principal Investments have the potential to become a significant contributor to group performance in the medium- to long-term.
  • Due to the recent de-rating, MFG no longer trades at a significant premium to its peer group.
  • Acquisitions may help to pave growth runways, easing the Company’s fund capacity constraints.
  • The average base management fee (bps) per annum (excluding performance fee) remains stable, but fee pressures pose a risk to the downside (which is an industry trend not specific to MFG alone).
  • Strategic  growth performance, particularly in the global and infrastructure funds.
  • Increasing amounts of money are being managed.
  • New strategies could significantly increase the addressable market and aid in the maintenance of earnings growth.

Key Risks 

  • Fund performance has declined.
  • The risk of potential fund outflows – both retail and institutional – (loss of a large mandate).
  • Acquisitions carry a high level of execution risk.
  • Crucial quality man risk exists in the immediate vicinity of Hamish Douglass and key management or investment management personnel.
  • New strategies fail to generate significant earnings for the group.

Key Result of FY21

  • Adjusted revenue was $699.1 million, largely unchanged from the prior year, with the Funds Management business continuing to perform well (management and service fees increased by 7% to $635.4 million).
  • Profit before tax and performance fees in the Funds Management business increased by 10% to $526.6 million, driven by a +9% increase in average FUM to $103.7 billion (total net inflows of $4.5 billion).
  • The Board declared a dividend of $1.141 per share (75 percent franked) for the six months ending 30 June 2021, consisting of a final dividend of $1.026 and a quality fee dividend for the year of $0.115 per share, bringing total dividend payouts for the year to $2.112 per share, down -2 percent over pcp, and announced a share buyback plan to allow stockholders to reinvest their dividends at a 1.5 cents rate.

Company Profile 

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (MFG) is a specialist funds management business. MFG’s core subsidiary, Magellan Asset Management Ltd, manages ~$53.6bn of funds under management across its global equities and global listed infrastructure strategies for retail, high net worth and institutional investors.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Excellent Third-Quarter Results for Bank of Montreal; Raising Our FVE to CAD 130/USD 103

BMO has a well-established Canadian banking presence, an established U.S. retail operation in the Midwest, and growing commercial and capital markets capabilities. BMO has the second-largest amount of assets under management among the Canadian banks, with the largest proportion of its revenue coming from wealth-management. Additionally, BMO has the lowest relative exposure to residential mortgage loans among its peers

Bank of Montreal has taken a step up in 2021, improving operating efficiency while growing fees and managing its interest rate exposure. We expect that the bank will remain a more efficient operation going forward.

Excellent Third-Quarter Results for Bank of Montreal; Raising Our FVE to CAD 130/USD 103

Bank of Montreal reported excellent fiscal third-quarter earnings, with EPS of CAD 3.44 representing solid year-over-year growth compared with adjusted EPS of CAD 1.85 last year and higher than last quarter’s EPS of CAD 3.13. Provisioning continues to be a major driver of improved earnings, coming in at a net benefit of CAD 70 million.Bank of Montreal’s fees continue to come in better than expected. 

Net income continued to be exceptional in the bank’s capital markets segment during the third quarter, tracking above CAD 500 million yet again as investment banking remained healthy while global markets-related revenue came back down a bit. The wealth segment also continued to report excellent results, with net income up another 15% sequentially, although growth in assets under management is starting to slow, up less than 1% sequentially. The more traditional banking segments at Bank of Montreal have continued to do fine, with Canadian P&C essentially fully recovered and back to pre pandemic revenue levels while U.S. P&C is feeling a bit more pressure from a CAD perspective due to shifting exchange rates

Credit costs remained solid. Provisioning continued to decline during the third quarter while the bank continues to hold excess reserves for future credit losses. Formations of impaired loans remained subdued, and overall gross impaired loans declined once again. Higher-risk loans due to the COVID-19 pandemic remained at just under 5% of total loans, which is very manageable.

 After decreasing our credit cost projections for 2021, decreasing certain expense line items, increasing some noninterest income items, and making some additional improvements to our balance sheet growth and net interest margin outlook, we have increased our fair value estimate to CAD 130/$103 per share from CAD 115/$94

Bulls Say

  • Growth and opportunities in the bank’s U.S. markets will outweigh any slowdown in its native Canada as U.S. subsidiaries gain market share.
  • Compared with its peers, BMO has a lower exposure to the Canadian housing market.
  • BMO’s presence in the Canadian ETF market should pay off as passive investment options gain share in Canada over the next decade.

Company Profile

Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial-services provider based in North America, operating four business segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, U.S. P&C banking, wealth management, and capital markets. The bank’s operations are primarily in Canada, with a material portion also in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Medtronic Begins Fiscal 2022 in Solid Fashion; No Change to Our Fair Value Estimate

For the year 2020 the firms revenue was USD 30117 million and EBIT was USD 5210 Million. We’re holding steady on our fair value estimate as these early results are generally consistent with our full year projections. 

Medtronic’s organic quarterly revenue growth of 19% year over year was fairly broad based, marked by share gains in cardiac rhythm management and surgical innovations. The diabetes franchise remains the weak link as competitors have launched new products, while Medtronic is still navigating the domestic regulatory pathway for its next-gen 780g insulin pump and Synergy sensor. In the meantime, Tandem and Insulet both posted strong second-quarter pump growth of 58% and 16%, respectively. Medtronic’s typical fiscal quarter timing, includes July, which provides a better peek into however the rise of the Delta variant has damped procedure volume growth. 

The firms Spyral HTN On-Med pivotal study results, which may be released in November will be very interesting herein the firm anticipates an interim look at the data in the next couple of months. If the findings are as favorable as seen in the earlier feasibility trial, then we’re optimistic Medtronic’s renal denervation platform could be launched by early 2023. We project this market to reach $4.2 billion by 2030, and Medtronic continues to enjoy a two- to four-year head start over competitors. 

Company Profile

One of the largest medical device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for almost 50% of the company’s total sales.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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ASX performed a mixed FY21 as a result of retail trading

Investment Thesis

  • M&A that adds value or product/service innovation
  • Monopoly position in a number of segments, with an EBIT margin of 70% and ROTE of 30%.
  • A quality management team has been established to assist any new CEO. The team has a detailed awareness of future operational and IT requirements, as well as strong ties to legislators and regulators.
  • With net cash and an AA credit rating, the balance sheet is strong.
  • The ASX stands to profit from rising superannuation and population trends.
  • The ASX could profit from global connectivity’s fundamental expansion.

Key Risks

  • Capex execution runs the risk of falling short of expectations in terms of ROIC.
  • Volume growth is expected to be slow, while profitability are expected to be flat.
  • Competitors’ or a new start-technological up’s and product innovation could jeopardise ASX’s market hegemony.
  • Regulation poses a threat.

FY21 results summary

Operating revenue increased +1.4 percent year on year to $951.5 million, driven by strong growth in Listings& Issuer Services (supported by new listings and increased issuer activity), Equity Post-Trade Services (reflecting higher settlement activity), and Trading Services (underpinned by increased demand for information services), partially offset by declines in Derivatives and OTC Markets as current policy settings reverted. Total expenses increased by +8.4 percent years on year to $310.3 million, in line with management’s guidance of +8-9 percent growth, due to additional costs to support licence to operate and growth initiatives, as well as variable costs associated with issuer activity. EBIT fell -1.7 percent years on year, with margin falling -210 basis points to 67.4 percent. Statutory profit was -3.6 percent lower than pcp. Net interest income fell 44.3 percent year on year to $46.7 million as a result of the RBA’s current policy settings, which resulted in lower interest earnings on ASX’s own capital and a lower investment spread on ASX collateral. Capital expenditure (capex) was $109.8 million, up 36.5 percent year on year, reflecting the expanded CHESS replacement project and ASX’s ongoing commitment to strengthen foundations for a future exchange.

Company Description  

ASX Ltd (ASX) operates Australia’s main stock exchange and equity derivatives market. ASX has four core segments:  (1) Listings and Issuer Services (covers capital raisings, investment products, and a range of services ASX provide to listed companies); (2) Derivatives and OTC Markets (covers OTC Clearing, equity options and Austraclear including the ASX collateral management service); (3) Trading Services (encompasses cash equities trading, information services and technical services); and (4) Equity Post-Trade Services (encompasses the clearing and settlement of the entire Australian cash market).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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P&G Cleans Up in Fiscal 2021, but Inflationary and Competive Headwinds Could Stall Its Trajectory

                   

 However, this performance is not solely a by-product of the pandemic, which has seen consumers place an outsize emphasis on cleaning and disinfecting. Rather, we attribute these marks to the strategic course P&G embarked on more than seven years ago (rightsizing its category and geographic reach by shedding more than 100 brands to ensure resources were being effectively allocated to the highest-return opportunities, while maintaining a stringent focus on costs). As a part of this playbook, P&G also adopted a more holistic approach to brand investing across its business .

But even as its top line appears healthy, P&G is facing unrelenting commodity cost inflation that management has qualitatively pegged as some of the most significant in some time. However, we think the degree of inflation combined with P&G’s innovation mandate (rooted in consumer-valued new fare) should make such increases more palatable. Further,  P&G is now involved in leaning into brand spending to illustrate the value its products offer consumers as opposed to turning off the spigot to preserve profits in this uncertain climate. This aligns with our forecast for P&G to direct around 3% and 10%-11% of sales long term to research and development and marketing, respectively, relative to the 2.7% and 10.5% expended on average the past five years.

Financial Strength

P&G maintains solid financial health. The firm continues to throw off a significant amount of cash, with free cash flow amounting to around $15 billion in fiscal 2021 .We expect P&G will remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders and will increase its dividend, to an average payout ratio north of 60%. For the year 2020 the firms revenue stood at 70.950 USD million while its EBIT was 16,143 USD million. On the other hand the firms EV/EBIDTA was 18.2 while its P/E ratio was 23.4 for the year 2020.

 We believe P&G is also open to bolting on select brands and businesses to its mix over time. The firms acquired Germany-based narrow-moat Merck’s consumer healthcare brands for $4 billion in April 2018. In our view, this deal stood to replace the scale and technological know-how lost following the dissolution of its joint venture partnership with no-moat Teva at the end of fiscal 2018. As such, we don’t think it signals a reversal in the firm’s strategy to operate with a leaner brand mix. Rather, at just 1%-2% of sales, we believe this addition aligned with management’s rhetoric that it intends to selectively bolster its reach in attractive categories (consumer health growing midsingle digits) and geographies. Beyond this deal, P&G has failed to assert itself as a consolidator in the global household and personal-care arena.

Bulls Say

  • To the extent that retailers and consumers continue to find favour with leading branded operators, P&G’s sales trajectory may outpace our expectations.
  • Additional opportunities to narrow its product mix could enable P&G to more effectively direct its brand spending to the highest-return areas.
  • As P&G reaches the end of its second $10 billion cost reduction effort, further savings (probably related to reducing overhead and bolstering the yield on its manufacturing footprint and marketing investments) could manifest if efficiency is as engrained in its culture as management suggests.

Company Profile

Since its founding in 1837, Procter & Gamble has become one of the world’s largest consumer product manufacturers, generating more than $75 billion in annual sales. It operates with a line up of leading brands, including 21 that generate more than $1 billion each in annual global sales, such as Tide laundry detergent, Charmin toilet paper, Pantene shampoo, and Pampers diapers. P&G sold its last remaining food brand, Pringles, to Kellogg in calendar 2012. Sales outside its home turf represent around 55% of the firm’s consolidated total, with around one third coming from emerging markets.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Continued Spending on the Home Improves Profitability at Wide-Moat Home Depot

 to deliver more than $140 billion in revenue in 2021. It continues to benefit from a healthy level of housing turnover along with improvements in its merchandising and distribution network. The firm earns a wide economic moat rating because of its economies of scale and brand equity. While Home Depot has produced strong historical returns as a result of its scale, operational excellence and concise merchandising remain key tenets underlying our margin expansion forecast. Its flexible distribution network will help elevate the firm’s brand intangible asset, with faster time to delivery improving the do-it-yourself experience and market delivery centers catering to the pro business. 

Home Depot should continue to capture top-line growth beyond 2021, bolstered by aging housing stock and rising home prices, even when lapping robust COVID-19 demand. Other internal catalysts for top-line growth could come from the firm’s efficient supply chain, improved merchandising technology, and penetration of adjacent customer product segments (most recently bolstered by the acquisition of HD Supply). Expansion of newer (like textiles from the Company Store acquisition) and existing (such as appliances) categories could also drive demand.

The commitment to better merchandising and an efficient supply chain has led the firm to achieve operating margins and adjusted returns on invested capital, including goodwill, of 13.8% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Additionally, Home Depot’s focus on cross-selling products in both its DIY and its maintenance, repair, and operations channel should support stable pricing and volatility in the sales base, helping achieve further operating margin lift, with the metric reaching above 15% sustainably over the next decade.

Bulls Say

  • Home Depot’s focus on distribution and merchandising should improve productivity and increase domestic share in a stable housing market, increasing sales and margins.
  • The company has returned $56 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the past five years–more than 15% of its market cap. It has consistently increased its dividend and used excess cash to repurchase shares.
  • The addressable pro market is around $55 billion, and Interline and HD Supply make up around 10% share, leaving meaningful upside up for grabs.

Financial Strength

Home Depot raised $5 billion in long-term debt in March 2020 to ensure it could weather COVID-19 without disruption, and raised another roughly $3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020 to help facilitate the acquisition of HD Supply. This led Home Depot to end 2020 with a total long-term debt load of more than $35 billion and a debt/capital ratio of 0.92.Strong free cash flow to equity that has averaged about 10% of sales over the past five years supports higher leverage, and we expect the company will stay within its targeted adjusted debt/EBITDAR metric of 2 times over the long term. The balance sheet’s $25 billion in net property, plant, and equipment provides an asset base to secure more debt if necessary. 

Company Profile

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating nearly 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.