Category: Dividend Stocks

Companies return profits to shareholders through two main channels, capital gains and income. A high dividend yield indicates that a company is returning a large amount of cash to shareholders relative to the value of the company. This allows investors to maximize their income received relative to their investment amount. The gross dividend is calculated from the net dividend amount paid to shareholders plus the value of any attached franking credits associated with those dividends. A fully franked dividend will have franking credits equal to 30% of the gross dividend value, which can, therefore, represent a significant source of additional value.

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Dividend Stocks

Campbell Soup Co aims to realize around $1 billion in savings through fiscal 2025

Business Strategy and Outlook

To say CEO Mark Clouse’s three-year tenure heading up Campbell Soup has been fraught with change might be considered an understatement. Since January 2019, Campbell has parted ways with its fresh business and the bulk of its international operations and worked to steady its core meals, beverages, and snacking arms, while navigating a global pandemic. But it doesn’t attribute its recent performance (14% consumption growth on a three-year stack basis) as merely a by-product of heightened consumer stock-ups of essential fare since March 2020. Rather, it’s likely, management’s strategic agenda–anchored in funnelling additional investment across its operations–fuelled by its pursuit of extracting inefficiencies has set Campbell on a sound course. And while much consternation rightly centres on how the business is poised to emerge in a post-COVID-19 world, it is held the steps that had been underway to steady the business and to juice its sales trajectory before the pandemic should serve as a springboard against a more normalized demand environment. 

Campbell is also battling unrelenting raw material inflation (which management now anticipates will prove a double-digit percentage hit in fiscal 2022), though it’s not sitting still. As a means to offset these pressures, Campbell is raising prices across its mix (with its third round of pricing set to hit shelves in August). Further, the firm aims to realize around $1 billion in savings through fiscal 2025 (up from $850 million by the end of fiscal 2022), with a focus on reducing complexity, investing in automation, and optimizing its supply chain and manufacturing network, which strikes us as achievable. But despite these near-term pressures, it’s unsurmised brand spending will contract. Rather, management has suggested its intent to funnel a portion of any savings realized behind its brand mix (in the form of both R&D as well as marketing), supporting the intangible asset that underpins its wide moat. This aligns with foreseeable calling for research, development, and marketing to edge up to 7% of sales over the next 10 years (or about $650 million annually), above the 6% expended the past three years on average ($500 million).

Financial Strength

It is unlikely that a lack of financial flexibility will encumber Campbell’s prospects against the current backdrop, with free cash flow as a percentage of sales amounting to 9% in fiscal 2021. Even though Campbell opted to raise $1 billion in 10- and 30-year bonds in April 2020, the firm has been making good on its commitment to lower its debt balance, with net debt/adjusted EBITDA standing at 2.6 times at the end of fiscal 2021, down from 4.9 times at the end of fiscal 2019 and 3 times when the books closed on fiscal 2020. From analyst’s viewpoint, after hitting its leverage targets, Campbell could be warming to a deal, though it is alleged that its aims are likely anchored in smaller, bolt-on tie-ups (as opposed to larger, transformational deals that could shoulder it with an increased debt load once again). In this context, management’s rhetoric suggests that it isn’t angling for an acquisition that would compromise its ability to reinvest in its business. Further, a mid-single-digit growth in its dividend each year over expert’s forecast, with its dividend pay-out holding around 50% of earnings on average annually (currently yielding around 3%), is expected. It is also foreseen Campbell will repurchase around 2% of shares on average each year, which is likely to be prudent use of cash when shares trade at a discount to analyst’s assessment of intrinsic value.

Bulls Say’s

  • Removing excess costs should afford Campbell the fuel to invest in its brands, nearly one dozen of which generate more than $100 million in sales each year. 
  • Campbell’s innovation focus (leveraging technology, data insights, and artificial intelligence to aid its efforts to bring consumer-valued new products to the shelf in a timely fashion) is attracting new consumers to the aisle and its product mix. 
  • About half of Campbell’s sales result from the faster growing on-trend snack aisle, which stands to offset more muted long-term prospects for the mature soup category.

Company Profile 

With a history that dates back around 150 years, Campbell Soup is now a leading manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products, most notably soup. The firm’s product assortment includes well-known brands like Campbell’s, Pace, Prego, Swanson, V8, and Pepperidge Farm. Following the sale of its international snacking operations, which wrapped in calendar 2019, the firm derives nearly all of its sales from its home turf. Campbell has made a handful of acquisitions to reshape its product mix the past few years, including the tie-up with Snyder’s-Lance (completed in March 2018), which enhances its exposure to the faster-growing on-trend snack food aisle, complementing its Pepperidge Farm line-up. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Cisco Remains Focused on Recurring Revenue via Software and Services; $54 FVE

Business Strategy & Outlook

The networking equipment behemoth Cisco continues to execute on its strategic focus of increasing recurring revenue via selling software and services to supplement its hardware products. Software and services were more than half of fiscal 2021 revenue, up from 43% in fiscal 2017. Cisco embracing software from hardware disaggregation, and even selling networking chips, can help keep demand for its solutions high although some customers rely on cloud-based resources or generic hardware. Narrow-moat Cisco’s plan is assessed as the correct direction for maintainable growth and believe the firm’s strategic shifts through organic developments and acquisitions, keep Cisco as mainstay in today’s networks. 

The company is the dominant supplier of switches, routers, cybersecurity, and complementary networking products. Cisco’s products are mission critical for network performance, stability, and security. Cisco is proliferating software, analytics, wireless, and security offerings to satisfy nascent trends, and Cisco is considered the only one-stop-shop networking vendor. Cisco is uniquely positioned to interweave complimentary necessities, like networking and security, together to provide comprehensive solutions for clients. Despite Cisco’s commanding position in switches and routers, IT professionals are increasingly shifting computer workloads to the cloud, in turn buying less data center hardware. Alongside changing its product offerings, Cisco is moving product sales toward subscription-based offerings, which is the preferred method of consumption for cloud-based resources. Cisco is rolling this sales model to additional products and it is encouraging that customers look to purchase bundles with analytics and security. Cisco is evolving its portfolio at a more rapid rate to stay ahead of trends in areas such as switching, communications, cybersecurity management, software-defined wide-area networking, and analytics. Cisco is anticipated to continue looking to acquisitions to bolster its capabilities in these areas to offset pressure in maturing market segments.

Financial Strengths 

Cisc is considered a financially healthy company. With a low debt/capital ratio, abundant free cash flow generation, and expected on-time debt payments, there are no fiscal concerns. The company could safely lever back up to fund development projects, acquisitions, and shareholder returns if needed. Cisco has continually exceeded its commitment to return at least 50% of free cash flow, calculated as cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures, to shareholders. Cisco initiated its share repurchase program in 2001 and has increased the authorization over time. Cisco is anticipated to opportunistically look to purchase shares. Cisco has recurrently raised its dividend year over year, and modest annual increases are forecasted. Even after shareholder returns and debt repayments, the company remains financially flexible with plenty of cash to support acquisitions and its large marketing and R&D expenditures. Growing recurring revenue will provide a steadier income stream, and strong operational and free cash flow generation is expected to continue in the future. Cisco is also anticipated to manage its growing war chest with future cash deployments into strategic developments and acquisitions.

Bulls Say

  • Cisco’s one-stop-shop ecosystem, from switches to data analytics, should remain valued as more networking customers migrate to hybrid clouds.
  • Despite the rise of public clouds, Cisco should continue to grow its customer base via hybrid cloud and software offerings. 
  • The expected rapid proliferation of devices to hit networks should drive customer demand for Cisco products. Cisco’s hardware is regarded as needed for access points, routing, and switching while software is crucial for analytics, security, and intent-based networking.

Company Description

Cisco Systems, Inc. is the world’s largest hardware and software supplier within the networking solutions sector. The secure, agile networks business contains switching, routing, and wireless solutions. The hybrid work division has products for collaboration and contact center needs. The end-to-end security group has products spanning a variety of threat prevention necessities. The internet for the future division has routed optical networks, silicon, and optics. Optimized application experiences offer solutions such as full stack observability. Services are Cisco’s technical support and advanced services offerings. In collaboration with Cisco’s initiative on growing software and services, its revenue model is focused on increasing subscriptions and recurring sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise Is Focused on the Hybrid Cloud but Hasn’t Earned a Moat

Business Strategy & Outlook

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a leading supplier of IT infrastructure products and services. It generates revenue from selling servers, storage, and networking equipment, as well as the associated software. HPE also has financial services arm it uses to provide financing to customers. HPE is committed to make its entire portfolio available as-a-service by 2022, and The HPE is wisely focusing on profitability and shareholder returns. Commoditized industry-standard servers, HPE’s largest segment, is in a competitive market with large brand-name foes and low-margin white-box manufacturers. To combat profitability concerns, HPE pared its sales of servers to hyperscale cloud providers and shifted toward expanding margin-accretive areas like hyperconverged infrastructure, network edge, and hybrid cloud solutions. The HPE should benefit from IT infrastructure upgrades in the short term. However, one cannot expect HPE to gain a long-term competitive advantage over peers that offer similar portfolios or pure-play companies focused on a sole aspect of HPE’s offerings. One cannot think the firm holds an economic moat.

The HPE’s hybrid cloud strategy, which contains Pointnext, GreenLake, and OneSphere. HPE offers the public cloud pay-per-usage model for on-premises and private clouds to stay in tune with favored consumption models. To bolster its cloud strategy, HPE acquired firms with public cloud integration and cloud analytics expertise. The HPE can position itself as a one-stop shop with hardware for on-premises and private clouds while selling software and services to manage and optimize an entire network. While this flexible sales approach, the competitors mimicking the consumption-based model will intensify competition. As data proliferates expeditiously, networks are transforming to process data closer to the end users, or the network edge, for efficiency. HPE’s business outlook may hinge on its concerted network edge focus and its ability to cross-sell hybrid cloud solutions to permeate HPE solutions throughout enterprise networks.

Financial Strengths

After the split from HP Inc. in November 2015, HPE’s free cash flow has been a roller-coaster ride due to large spinoffs and acquisitions. The HPE as a more streamlined firm that can focus on IT infrastructure hardware, software, and cloud-based solutions. The HPE is a financially stable firm that may generate healthy free cash flow as it moves toward focusing on higher margin products paired with software and service sales. HPE’s fiscal 2021 debt/capital ratio was 40% and the deleveraging to occur through the forecast period and for HPE to pay its obligations on schedule with the spread-out nature of the maturities. The company had $13.4 billion in debt at the end fiscal 2021, with $1.4 billion of that being the operating portion of HPE. The majority of HPE’s debt is used by its financial arm, which has committed to maintaining an investment-grade rating. Its debt is largely associated with financing receivables, and management stated that it had less than 0.5% bad losses related to average net receivables. The company finished fiscal 2021 with $4.0 billion in cash and cash equivalents and as per forecast it to utilize its cash to reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Outside of operating expenses, the HPE to continue using its cash to gradually grow its dividend, potentially repurchasing shares opportunistically, and acquiring smaller firms to bolster its hybrid cloud and software capabilities.

Bulls Say

  • HPE may prosper from enterprises requiring cloud management and optimization services, and its payper-usage consumption model could win over customers. 
  • Edge computing, hyperconverged infrastructure, and software-defined networking present rapid growth possibilities. The HPE is wise to dedicate capital to these large market opportunities. 
  • The company’s paring down of hyperscale cloud server sales is smart. Additionally, the HPE is bolting on cloud service and analytics firms since cloud migration should present robust growth opportunities.

Company Description

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a supplier of IT infrastructure products and services. The company operates as six segments. Its compute division primarily sells computer servers and services. The high-performance compute segment includes its Cray supercomputers. Storage arrays are sold out of the storage segment, and the intelligent edge group sells Aruba networking products and services. HPE’s financial services division offers financing and leasing plans for customers. The Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale and has approximately 60,000 employees.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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No-Moat Dick’s Sporting Goods Posted Great Results, but Competitive and Economic Threats Remain

Business Strategy & Outlook

The no-moat Dick’s Sporting Goods lacks an edge as sporting goods are sold through an increasing number of channels. Although its sales have soared during the pandemic, the impact is temporary, as growth in sporting goods retail has generally been minimal due to external competition. According to IBISWorld, sporting goods retail sales experienced average annual growth of just 1.3% in the five years before the pandemic. Dick’s competitors include e-commerce operators (such as wide-moat Amazon), mass retailers (such as wide-moat Walmart), specialty stores (narrow-moat Lululemon, Foot Locker, Bass Pro Shops/Cabela’s), and branded stores and owned e-commerce from major vendors. As an example of the latter, narrow-moat Adidas’ direct-to-consumer business constituted 39% of its 2021 sales, up from 25% in 2015. Further, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated manufacturers’ direct-to-consumer efforts, as evidenced by Foot Locker’s acknowledgement that wide-moat Nike will reduce shipments to the firm. No one can believe Dick’s market position is strong enough to prevent vendors from offering their merchandise in alternate channels. Its compound average yearly sales growth of 3% over the next decade, at the lower end of projected U.S. activewear growth of 3%-5%. Dick’s recent profitability has greatly improved, but one cannot think the gains can hold. The firm recorded a 16.5% operating margin in 2021, but this as anomalous. In 2013, Dick’s forecast its operating margin would increase to 10.5% by 2017 from 9.0% in 2012, but its actual operating margins were only in the midsingle digits in the years before the pandemic. The 2021 operating margin was the peak level and expect its operating margins will trend downward over time due to a lack of pricing power. Ultimately, one cannot think the firm needs such a large store base (about 860 stores) especially as its e-commerce has risen during the pandemic (21% of sales in 2021, up from 16% in 2019). The Dick’s investments in new full-line and specialty stores have failed to attract enough new customers.

Financial Strengths

The Dick’s is in excellent financial shape. To conserve cash while stores were temporarily closed during the pandemic, Dick’s furloughed employees, cut its planned capital expenditures, reduced salaries, and suspended its share repurchases. In April 2020, it shored up its liquidity further by completing a $575 million convertible bond offering at an interest rate of 3.25% (matures in 2025). Then, in early 2022, the firm issued $1.5 billion in bonds, with half carrying a 3.15% interest rate and maturing in 2032 and the other half carrying a 4.1% interest rate and maturing in 2052. After this offering, Dick’s ended April 2022 with $2.25 billion in cash and equivalents, long-term debt of $1.9 billion, and about $1.6 billion in available borrowing capacity under its revolver. The firm may retire the convertible debt when it becomes callable in 2023. The Dick’s will produce significant free cash flow, which it will return to shareholders as dividends and share repurchases after the crisis has passed. The Dick’s will generate $8 billion in free cash flow to equity over the next decade and will use this cash to repurchase about $5.5 billion in stock and issue about $2.6 billion in dividends. Dick’s suspended repurchases during the pandemic, but then spent nearly $1.2 billion on repurchases in 2021, its largest amount in any year by far. Unfortunately, the average price paid was $109 per share, which was possibly inefficient at well above fair value estimates and historical price levels. For comparison, due to the large share price increase, Dick’s consumed about $400 million in cash in buybacks in 2019 but repurchased more shares than it did in 2021. The annual capital expenditures will average about $450 million (3.5% of sales) over the next five years as Dick’s opens a few stores per year, invests in e-commerce, and renovates existing locations.

Bulls Say

  • Dick’s is the largest pure sporting goods chain in the U.S. It has a large loyalty program that is integrated with that of Nike. Dicks has a strong business in high school and youth sports. 
  • Dick’s is replacing hunting with women’s activewear and other apparel in some stores. Popular activewear probably has better margin and growth prospects than hunting. 
  • Dick’s has adapted well to a market that has changed during the pandemic. Its digital sales skyrocketed to about $2.6 billion in sales in 2021 (21% of total), up from about $1.4 billion in 2019 (16% of total).

Company Description

Dick’s Sporting Goods retails athletic apparel, footwear, and equipment for sports. Dick’s operates digital platforms, about 730 stores under its namesake brand (including outlet stores), and about 130 specialty stores under the Golf Galaxy, Public Lands, and Field & Stream names. Dick’s carries private-label merchandise and national brands such as Nike, The North Face, Under Armour, Callaway Golf, and TaylorMade. Based in the Pittsburgh area, Dick’s was founded in 1948 by the father of current executive chairman and controlling shareholder Edward Stack.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Alibaba’s Adjusted EBITA Could Bottom Out in December Quarter of Fiscal Year 2023; Shares Attractive

Finance and Economy Chart for Dollar Gold Euro Currencies Trading View

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Alibaba BABA is a Big Data-centric conglomerate, with transaction data from its marketplaces and logistics businesses allowing it to move into omnichannel retail, cloud computing, media and entertainment, and online-to-offline services. Company think a strong network effect allows leading e-commerce players to extend into other growth avenues, and nowhere is that more evident than with Alibaba. Alibaba’s internet services had annual active consumers of 953 million as of September 2021, versus the 1.2 billion online population in September 2021 per Questmobile and the 1.4 billion population in China. This provides Alibaba with an unparalleled source of data that it can use to help merchants and consumer brands develop personalized mobile marketing and content strategies to expand their target audiences, increase click-through rates and physical store transactions, and bolster return on investment. Alibaba’s marketplace monetization rates have reduced recently, due to increased compliance of antitrust laws, more competition, and weak consumer sentiment. Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD.

 While the company view the Taobao/Tmall marketplaces as Alibaba’s core cash flow drivers, it also believes AliCloud and globalization offer long-term potential. While AliCloud will remain in investment mode in the medium term, accelerating revenue per user suggests a migration to value-added content delivery and database services that can drive segment margins higher over time. On globalization, third-party merchants are successfully reaching Lazada’s users across Southeast Asia, something that should continue as the company rolls out incremental personalized mobile marketing and content opportunities. While early, company share management’s views about Ele.me offering incremental monetization opportunities from Alibaba’s user base.

Financial Strengths:  

Alibaba is in sound financial health. As of December 2020, the company had CNY 456 billion in cash and unrestricted short-term investments on its balance sheet against CNY 117 billion in short- and long-term bank borrowing and unsecured senior notes. Although Alibaba remains in investment mode, company believes the strong cash flow profile of its e-commerce marketplaces offers it the financial flexibility to continue investing in technology infrastructure and cloud, research, marketing, and user experience initiatives through its current balance sheet and strong cash flow profile. Additionally, it is assumed that the company has the capacity to add leverage to its capital structure, which could allow it to take advantage of low borrowing rates to fund growth initiatives, introduce a cash dividend when it sees limited investment opportunities with good returns on investment, or repurchase shares. It is expected that for the company to pursue acquisitions that could further improve its ecosystem, including online-to-offline, physical retail, and increased logistic capacity or capabilities.

Bulls Say: 

  • Monthly gross merchandise volume per annual active user was CNY 770 for the year ended March 2021 for Alibaba, higher than CNY 176 in 2020 for Pinduoduo and CNY 461 in 2020 for JD. 
  • Core annual active users on Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces had a retention rate of over 90% for the year ended September 2021. 
  • Alibaba’s core commerce (which includes China marketplace-based businesses and other loss-making businesses) adjusted EBITA margin was 26.2%, higher than JD retail’s 2.3% non-GAAP EBIT margin and PDD’s 15.2% non-GAAP EBIT margin for the September quarter of 2021.

Company Description:  

Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume (CNY 7.5 trillion for the fiscal year ended March 2021). It operates China’s online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). Alibaba’s China commerce retail division accounted for 63% of revenue in the September 2021 quarter. Additional revenue sources include China commerce wholesale (2%), international retail/wholesale marketplaces (5%/2%), cloud computing (10%), digital media and entertainment platforms (4%), Cainiao logistics services (5%), and innovation initiatives/other (1%).

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Best Buy’s Long-Term Digital and Services Narrative Remains Intact Despite Near-Term Pressure

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

The company believe Best Buy is taking adequate steps to shore up its competitive position in an intensely competitive consumer electronics space. As the industry emerges from the shadow of COVID-19, it’s become clear that how people shop has permanently changed–with customers demanding seamless omnichannel access to favorite brands, quick fulfillment across channels, and tech solutions to more problems than ever before. As a result, Best Buy’s strategic positioning continues to resonate, with the firm leveraging its physical footprint for fulfillment and post-sale services, emphasizing its differentiated service offering, and experimenting with newer store formats, as the “one size fits all” retail model across trade areas appears antiquated. With more than one third of sales coming through digital channels in calendar 2021 (with management anticipating roughly 35% in perpetuity), the firm’s recent supply chain and e-commerce investments ($2.7 billion over the last five years, some 74% of total capital expenditures) look prescient. Next-day delivery now covers 99% of U.S. zip codes (up from 80% from pre-pandemic), allowing the firm to compete on more level ground against e-commerce competitors, like wide-moat Amazon–as buy-online-pick-up-in-store, or BOPIS) volumes, at 40% of e-commerce sales, remain more challenging for online-only stores to replicate. 

Further, the company takes a positive view of the firm’s Totaltech program, with more than 4.5 million members receiving unlimited home tech support, VIP access to phone and chat teams, free delivery and standard installation, members-only pricing, and free extended warranties on Best Buy purchases. Through the program, Best Buy leverages its network of 20,000 Geek Squad agents, increases touchpoints with customers, and positions itself better to earn the first shot at servicing customer category needs. Finally, Best Buy Health remains intriguing, with lower price elasticity and auspicious tailwinds from an insurer pay model. However, competition in the space remains rife, as a number of moaty firms with extensive healthcare aspirations (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Facebook) have invested heavily in the segment.

Financial Strengths:  

The company thinks that Best Buy’s financial strength is sound, with the firm maintaining just $545 million in net debt at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2023 and an investment-grade credit rating. With leverage well under 1 turn (0.3 debt/EBITDA at fiscal 2022 year-end), strong EBIT interest coverage, and no meaningful maturities until 2028, the company sees very little financial risk for the firm in the near to medium term. Access to a $1.25 billion credit facility adds a further degree of insulation. Consistent with historical patterns, it is expected that Best Buy will prioritize growth capital expenditures, strategic acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases with its free cash flow (with free cash flow averaging 4.5% of sales through fiscal 2027). The firm also maintains an attractive dividend, with a 35%-45% payout target. The company’s annual share repurchases average a mid-single-digit percentage of shares outstanding through 2032, with our model calling for total shareholder returns of $11.3 billion through fiscal 2027.

Bulls Say: 

  • With digital sales volumes projected to equilibrate at roughly double pre-COVID-19 levels, Best Buy should better compete for online volumes that it historically ceded to online competitors. 
  • Improving route densities should strengthen the margin profile of small parcel e-commerce sales, with 35% of store “hubs” now accounting for 70% of ship from-store volume. 
  • The Best Buy Totaltech program should increase touchpoints with the firm’s best customers, increasing spending and frequency relative to pre-program behavior.

Company Description:  

With $51.8 billion in fiscal 2022 sales, Best Buy is the largest pure-play consumer electronics retailer in the U.S., with roughly 10.6% share of the aggregate market and north of 40% share of offline sales, per our calculations, CTA industry, and Euromonitor data. The firm generates the bulk of its sales in-store, with mobile phones and tablets, computers, and appliances representing its three largest categories. Recent investments in e-commerce fulfillment, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have seen the U.S. e-commerce channel roughly double from prepandemic levels, with management estimating that it will represent a mid-30% proportion of sales moving forward.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Dividend Stocks

Market Wants Proof Tysers Acquisition a Winner; Creates Buying Opportunity in AUB Group Shares

Business Strategy & Outlook

AUB operates the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. AUB brokers derive revenue from commissions paid by insurers, based on gross written premiums. AUB owns or has equity stakes in each broking business within the network. Post the exit of rehabilitation services in 2021, around 85% of group EBITA is delivered by the broker network, while the underwriting agencies generate about 15%. A key value proposition over smaller brokers is AUB’s ability to negotiate more favourable policy wording and pricing. Scale also provides the capacity to spend more on technology, which helps facilitate greater analytical and processing capabilities, and marketing to help attract and retain customers. Other services such as claims support and premium funding support the value proposition. AUB’s underwriting agencies distribute insurance products but take no underwriting risk. Underwriting agencies act on behalf of insurers to design, develop, and provide specialised insurance products and services. 

The earnings outlook is positive. Further insurance price rises are expected over the medium term as insurers seek to cover claims inflation and weak investment income. This follows a weak pricing environment due to excess global reinsurance capacity, soft economic conditions, and elevated competition. Insurance brokers are expected to take share of the intermediated market. Technology should allow a greater number of policies per client–for example, adding personal motor/home on top of a business clients insurance needs. AUB’s investment in BizCover, a self-service insurance platform targeting small SMEs, and partnership with accounting firm Kelly+Partners to act as a lead generator, should see AUB take share of the small SME end of the market. This share will most likely come from the direct channel. The acquisition of Tysers is material for AUB Group, and while the current projection of low-single-digit revenue growth may prove conservative in the current rate environment, an optimistic outlook is adopted in relation to whether targeted cost and revenue synergy targets will be achieved.

Financial Strengths 

AUB is in sound financial health. It has strong cash flow generation with a high conversion of earnings to operating cash flow and a relatively high dividend payout ratio. Gearing as reported by the company (corporate, subsidiary and look through share of associate debt/debt plus equity) ratio is reasonable, at 31% and below the firm’s maximum 40% ratio. The current debt load looks manageable, with EBITDA interest cover of over 18 times and the nature of its businesses being relatively low-risk. It is assumed AUB will use operating cash flows to fund increased positions in existing broker partners, with headroom to fund small acquisitions from cash on hand. To fund the acquisition of Tysers, expected to complete in first-half fiscal 2023, AUB Group completed a AUD 350 million equity raising, and will issue AUD 175 million worth of shares to the vendor, and increase debt. Debt/EBITDA is expected to rise to around 2.8 times from 2 times in fiscal 2021, but is also expected to fall on the part sale of the U.K. retail broking business, realisation of synergies, and strong cash flow generation.

Bulls Say

  • AUB’s scale and expertise in insurance products and services leave it well placed to benefit from higher insurance pricing. 
  • BizCover and the Kelly+Partners partnership see AUB placed to take market share in the smaller end of the SME market. 
  • The firm’s acquisition strategy, both new investments and increased equity stakes, likely boosts EPS growth.

Company Description

AUB Group is the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. It has an ownership in 55 brokerage businesses, which collectively write over AUD 3 billion in premiums. It also owns equity stakes in 27 underwriting agencies. AUB derives revenue from commissions (from insurers, ultimately paid for by AUB’s customers) based on gross written premium, or GWP, from agencies it owns, and a share of profits from associates and joint ventures. GWP is split between personal (6%), small to medium enterprises (68%), and corporates (26%).

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

While Inflation Runs Rampant, Pepsi’s Leading Snack and Beverage Mix Should Serve It Well

Business Strategy & Outlook

For many consumers, the Pepsi trademark elicits images of cola containers and ads extolling the brand’s taste superiority versus Coke. While PepsiCo is still a beverage behemoth, its business now extends beyond this industry, with Frito-Lay and Quaker products accounting for over half of sales and over an estimated 65% of profits. A diversified portfolio across snacks and beverages is considered the source of many of the company’s competitive advantages. Though management missteps have stymied performance in the past, the confluence of better execution and benefits inherent to its integrated business model has allowed Pepsi to reaccelerate profitable growth, and there is plenty of room to run.

After years of sluggish sales growth and underinvestment, Pepsi has committed to reinvigorating its top line. To that end, it has made significant investments in manufacturing capacity (for example, production lines to meet demand for reformulated packaging), system capacity (route optimization and sales technology), and productivity (harmonization and automation). These investments are considered prudent and believe they will allow the company to strengthen key trademarks such as Mountain Dew and Gatorade, deepen its presence in growth markets like sub-Saharan Africa, and yield enough cost savings to reinvest and widen profits. Recent strategic pivots in the energy category (such as the Rockstar acquisition and Mountain Dew line extensions) should also underpin growth and margins. 

Pepsi’s growth trajectory is not without risk, as the company faces secular headwinds such as shifts in consumer behavior. Additionally, changing go-to-market dynamics, such as online commerce that encourages real-time price comparisons and obviates the extent of Pepsi’s retail distribution advantage, allow for more nimble and aggressive competition. Still, structural dynamics emanating from Pepsi’s scale, the cachet of its brands, and the breadth of its portfolio, which support its wide moat, should enable the company to maintain and augment its competitive positioning.

Financial Strengths 

Pepsi’s financial health is considered excellent. While leverage has ticked up due to recent acquisitions, the company still has a strong balance sheet with manageable debt levels and robust free cash flow generation. Strong interest coverage ratios also lend credence to the firm’s health in this regard. Pepsi is not forecasted to have any issues meeting its contractual obligations for the foreseeable future, given the reliability of its business and its stalwart positioning across its categories.

Historically, the company has regularly produced around $7 billion in free cash flow (high-single to low-double digits as a percentage of sales). Management has prioritized strategic investments across the business of late, which is considered prudent to aid its competitive standing over the long term. While capacity (particularly in snacking growth areas) and digital capability investments will remain elevated in 2022 and beyond, free cash flow is expected to normalize at or above historical levels, particularly as the company’s revenue management and supply chain digitization initiatives continue to bear fruit. 

Management’s guiding principle as it relates to debt levels is to maintain access to Tier 1 commercial paper. While the prerequisites for this status vary by rating agency, there are no impediments to Pepsi’s ability to continue relying on this short-duration paper, and current leverage levels (around 2.5 times net debt/EBITDA) are considered appropriate for the firm. Moreover, the firm’s commercial paper access is viewed as one of the biggest testaments to its financial strength; this cheap financing should facilitate and perpetuate Pepsi’s financial flexibility. As the pandemic ends, liquidity should be of no concern to Pepsi investors–in addition to roughly $6 billion in cash at the end of fiscal 2021, the firm has undrawn credit facilities in excess of $7 billion.

Bulls Say

  • In still beverages—a category facing fewer secular challenges, particularly in the U.S.–Pepsi is a much more formidable competitor to Coca-Cola. 
  • Pepsi’s global dominance in salty snacks may be underappreciated; with volume share more than 10 times that of the next-largest competitor, the firm benefits from unparalleled unit economics and go-to market optionality. 
  • The firm’s consolidated beverage and snack distribution operations, combined with its direct store delivery capabilities, allow for better execution in merchandising.

Company Description

PepsiCo is one of the largest food and beverage companies globally. It makes, markets, and sells a slew of brands across the beverage and snack categories, including Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Doritos, Lays, and Ruffles. The firm uses a largely integrated go-to-market model, though it does leverage third-party bottlers, contract manufacturers, and distributors in certain markets. In addition to company-owned trademarks, Pepsi manufactures and distributes other brands through partnerships and joint ventures with companies such as Starbucks. The firm segments its operations into five primary geographies, with North America (comprising Frito-Lay North America, Quaker Foods North America, and North America beverages) constituting around 60% of consolidated revenue.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Engie is well Positioned to Benefit from the Power Prices Rally

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Engie is one of the three largest integrated international European utilities, along with Enel and Iberdrola. Under the tenure of previous CEO Isabelle Kocher, the firm sold EUR 16.5 billion of mostly commodity-exposed assets– E&P, LNG, and coal plants–to focus on regulated, renewables, and client-facing businesses. This strategy lowered the weight of activities that typically have volatile cash flows and no economic moats. However, Kocher was blamed for the lack of visibility of the client-facing businesses. After she was ousted by the board in early 2020, the firm shifted its strategy to reduce the weight of these activities and sell stakes in noncore businesses. That drove the sale of Engie’s 32.05% stake in Suez to Veolia at an attractive price and of its multi-technical subsidiary Equans to Bouygues for EUR 7.1 billion. The latter is part of an EUR 11 billion disposal plan by 2023.

Engie will increase annual investments in renewables from 3 GW to 4 GW between 2022 and 2025 and 6 GW beyond. Regulated gas networks, mostly in France, account for around one third of the group’s EBIT. Contracted assets comprise thermal power plants in emerging markets, especially the Middle East and Latin America, with purchased power agreements, or PPAs, securing returns on capital. Remaining merchant exposure is made up of gas plants across Europe, Belgian nuclear plants and French hydropower assets. Gas plants are well positioned as the share of intermittent renewables increase. Nuclear and hydropower provide exposure to European power prices although Belgian nuclear plants will be shut by 2025. Taking that into account, the valuation sensitivity to EUR 1 change in power prices is EUR 0.16 per share, 1% of the fair value estimate. With net debt/EBITDA of 2.4 times, Engie has one of the lowest leverages in the sector. Still, the 2019 dividend of EUR 0.8 was canceled because of pressure from the French government, which has 34% of the voting rights, and the coronavirus impact. Still, the dividend was reinstated in 2020 and the 2021 dividend of EUR 0.85 is above the precut level. A projected 2021-26 dividend CAGR of 5% based on a 69% average payout ratio.

Financial Strengths:  

Net debt/EBITDA will average 2 times through 2026. Economic net debt including pension and nuclear provisions amounted to EUR 38.3 billion at end-2021, implying a leverage ratio of 3.6. The economic net debt to decrease to EUR 37.1 billion through 2026. Thanks to the EBITDA increase, economic net debt/EBITDA will decrease to 3.2 in 2026, averaging 3.1 between 2021 and 2026, comfortably below the company’s upper ceiling of 4. After the COVID-19-driven cancellation of the 2019 dividend of EUR 0.80 per share, Engie paid a EUR 0.53 dividend on its 2020 earnings implying a 75% payout. For 2021 results, the company will pay a dividend of EUR 0.85, implying a 70% payout in line with the 65%-75% guidance range over 2021-23. Between 2022 and 2026, the adjusted payout ratio to get a progressive dividend. All in all, the forecasts point to a 2026 dividend of EUR 1.08 involving a 5% CAGR by then. Ninety-one percent of debt was fixed-rate at the end of 2021. Meanwhile, 83% of the company’s debt was denominated in euros, 11% in U.S. dollars, and the balance in Brazilian real.

Bulls Say: 

  • Engie’s strategic shift announced in July 2020 should be value-accretive as evidenced by the sale of its stake in Suez and of Equans.
  • In the long run, the group could convert its gas assets into hydrogen assets.
  • The group is well positioned to benefit from rising power prices in Europe thanks to its French hydro dams.

Company Description: 

Engie is a global energy firm formed by the 2008 merger of Gaz de France and Suez and the acquisition of International Power in 2012. It changed its name to Engie from GDF Suez in 2015. The company operates Europe’s largest gas pipeline network, including the French system, and a global fleet of power plants with 63 net GW of capacity. Engie also operates a diverse suite of other energy businesses.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Bouygues Raises Dividend to EUR 1.80 After Stable 2021

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Bouygues is a conglomerate with a disparate number of businesses. In its construction segment Bouygues develops big infrastructure projects such as motorways, rails, power plants, and tunnels, among other things. Despite having small margins, the construction business is usually more resilient to the cycle as infrastructure spending tends to be less affected by recessions than residential construction. Bouygues’ cost structure is highly variable so when difficult times come it can adjust its cost base rapidly (although this also prevents it from benefiting from operating leverage in times of high demand). Both Bouygues Construction and Inmobilier (residential construction) have high exposure to France, as a significant portion of their business comes from there. olas, which provides raw materials like asphalt and concrete for road construction, is also relatively stable during the cycle as it is exposed infrastructure investment. In 2018 Colas increased its exposure to North America by acquiring Miller McAsphalt, engaged in road construction and bitumen distribution in Canada.

Bouygues is also the owner of TF1 and Bouygues Telecom. TF1 is one of the main media groups in France and owns several TV channels. As traditional TV advertising is in continuous decline, TF1 set up Unify in 2016, which encompasses several web pages in France that earn money through advertising. Bouygues Telecom is one of the main four telecom operators in France, with traditionally a larger presence in the mobile market, though it has been catching up in broadband in recent years. Bouygues Telecom’s business struggled in the first half of the 2010s as competitor Iliad launched Free, its mobile service. Bouygues saw its telecom EBITDA margins decline sharply as its main exposure was in the mobile segment. Since 2015, Bouygues Telecom turned around by expanding its presence and gaining market share in the fixed market, which has increased its margins, making it a more resilient player.

Financial Strengths: 

As of December 2021 Bouygues had around EUR 600 million in net debt, which represents a 0.2 times net debt (excluding leases) to trailing EBITDA ratio.Bouygues keeps low levels of leverage given its cyclical nature and small profit margins in many divisions. Bouygues has approximately EUR 3.7 billion in gross debt maturing in the next five years, however, maturities are evenly spread and it is not expected that the company will have any problem in repaying or refinancing its obligations. After the acquisition of Equans, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2022, it is estimated that net debt/EBITDA could increase from around 0.2 times to the 1.0-1.5 times range. Although net debt should still be in a manageable range going forward, Bouygues’ conservatively managed balance sheet given & the cyclical nature of the business, shows some deleveraging is likely after the deal completion, which is expected in the second half of 2022

Bulls Say: 

  • Bouygues Telecom’s turnaround is an example of the company’s ability to deliver on its promises. This business should win some market share in the years to come. 
  • The construction business enjoys a good reputation worldwide, which will keep the backlog at a good level and big projects coming in. 
  • Bouygues has low financial leverage, which makes the company resilient during cycle troughs and allows it to maintain a stable dividend payment.

Company Description:  

Bouygues is a French conglomerate made up of a disparate range of assets: a construction business, a TV business, and a telecom business. It is one of the biggest construction companies in France and Europe with construction sales of around EUR 25 billion-EUR 30 billion and one of the four telecom operators in France, with both mobile and fixed operations and EUR 6 billion in revenue. It is also the owner of TF1, one of the main media and TV companies in France.

(Source: Morning Star)

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