Category: Shares

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Shares Small Cap

The Fast Charge EV Network: Initiating Coverage of EVgo with $7 Fair Value Estimate

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Business Strategy & Outlook:  

EVgo is a leading owner operator of fast charging direct current, or DC, stations in the United States. The market for public charging of electric vehicles can be divided into high-powered DC charging and lower powered Level 2, alternating current (AC), charging. Charging times to add 100 miles vary from as little as 5-15 minutes with DC charging to as much as several hours with AC charging. EVgo was a pioneer in the buildout of DC charging, which is expected to experience a growing percentage of charging demand. According to Bloomberg NEF, fast charging is expected to constitute 22% of all public EV demand by 2030 versus less than 10% in 2021.

EVgo pursues various partnerships to execute its business model. The company partners with retail, grocery stores, and related high-traffic merchants to site its charging stations in desirable locations. This strategy differs from other DC charging strategies which focus more on highway corridor locations. In addition to host customer partnerships, EVgo has partnered with automotive OEMs. One example is with General Motors, which has agreed to help fund EVgo’s buildout of DC charging stations over the next few years. Auto OEM partnerships is viewed as a key customer acquisition strategy for EVgo and would view further partnerships favorably for its competitive position. While public charging for passenger vehicles has historically been EVgo’s focus, and an increasing focus on the fleet market. Vehicle fleets are particularly relevant for DC charging given the higher utilization of the vehicle compared to a typical passenger car. While the long-term attractiveness of the fleet market, and the number of competitors is numerous in this burgeoning arena. In addition to its core focus of owning and operating DC fast chargers, EVgo expanded its digital and software capabilities with its acquisition of Plugshare in 2021. Plugshare is the leading global platform for EV drivers to locate and provide information relating to charging stations. This transaction is viewed as financially immaterial, but highly strategic given its large data capture.

Financial Strengths:  

EVgo’s financial strength received a major boost from its 2021 special purpose acquisition company merger. The merger and subsequent financing added approximately $600 million in cash to EVgo’s balance sheet. This allows for a step change in EVgo’s capital investment compared with a more restrained balance sheet under past private equity ownership. While EVgo possess a relatively strong balance sheet compared to EV charging pure plays, it pales in comparison to select competitors within auto OEMs, utilities, or oil and gas majors. EVgo’s balance sheet is unlevered, which is viewed as prudent given the early stage of its business. Over time, the envision leverage being added as the business matures given its asset-backed nature. EVgo’s asset ownership approach results in a more capital-intensive business model than competing models. The uses of cash to consist operating cash outflows as profitability is not expected in the near-term and growth capital expenditures associated with expanding its fast-charging network. Government subsidies play a crucial role in financing of EV charging stations – helping to offset upfront capital requirements. EVgo notes subsidies can range from 5-50% of typical capital requirements.

Bulls Say: 

  • EVgo is a leading asset owner of fast-charging stations, which are expected to grow faster than slower charge stations.
  • Government subsidies can help fund a material portion of a typical EV charging station’s capital expenditures.
  • EVgo offers exposure to growing adoption of electric vehicles.

Company Description: 

EVgo owns and operates a public direct current fast charging network in the U.S. EVgo’s network of charging stations provides electric vehicle charging infrastructure to consumers and businesses. Its network is capable of charging all EV models and charging standards currently available in the U.S. EVgo partners with national and regional chains of grocery stores, automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), hotels, shopping centers, gas stations, parking lot operators, local governments and independent property owners in order to locate and deploy its EV charging infrastructure.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Ventia has built trust to deliver highly sensitive and complex projects across its sectors

Business Strategy & Outlook

Ventia is a leading infrastructure maintenance services provider in Australia and New Zealand. Through developing strategic relationships and a focus on safety, Ventia has built trust to deliver highly sensitive and complex projects across its sectors. Revenue has a visible stability with 70%-80% of Ventia’s next 12 months of revenue historically supported by work in hand. Work in hand as at July 2021 stood at AUD 15.5 billion. Approximately 85% of revenue comes from Australia with over 13,000 employees at around 350 sites. The 15% balance comes from New Zealand where over 2,000 workers are employed at approximately 50 sites. Ventia also relies upon an additional workforce of around 20,000 subcontractors. With access to such a large workforce, Ventia can leverage a deep pool of talent across Australia and New Zealand. And the subcontractor base allows for flexible staffing, enabling Ventia to scale the workforce up and down on short notice, and provides wide geographical coverage. This plays into Ventia’s capital-light business model with capital expenditure typically less than 1% of total revenue.

Ventia is structured across four sectors including defense & social infrastructure; infrastructure services; telecommunications; and transport. Its capabilities span the full asset lifecycle including operations and maintenance, facilities management, minor capital works, environmental services, and other solutions. In Australia, Ventia services 50% of the private motorways and tunnels, and over 70% of defence sites. In New Zealand, it provides services to over 90% of the electricity transmission network. Ventia is also the number one telecommunications infrastructure services provider in both Australia and New Zealand. Ventia has long-term relationships with a diverse range of public and private sector clients. In 2020, it did work for more than 60 public sector clients at federal, state, and local levels, and 65 private sector clients ranging from medium-size domestic organizations to large national and global corporates.

Financial Strengths

With net debt excluding lease liabilities of AUD 563 million at December 2021, Ventia is in reasonable financial health. Net debt/(net debt plus equity) is high at 59%, but this skewed by Ventia’s capital-light operating model which limits assets on balance sheet. Debt is comfortably serviced with EBIT/interest expense in fiscal 2021 of 7.0 times. The net debt/EBITDA of around 1.6 in 2021, falling to sub-1.0 levels by 2023, all else equal. Ventia boasts robust operating and free cash flows. On a pro forma basis before interest and tax, three-year average operating cash flow to 2020 was AUD 195 million and three-year average free cash flow was AUD 150 million. As per forecast solid free cash flows in the foreseeable future, growing to over AUD 200 million by 2025, which should comfortably support Ventia’s targeted dividend payout ratio of between 60% and 80% of underlying NPATA.

Bulls Say

  • The maintenance services market is expected to grow strongly, supported by the fair winds of population growth, rising outsourcing rates, and increasingly stringent environmental regulation. 
  • Ventia has long-term relationships with a diverse range of public and private sector clients and has maintained many client relationships for decades across its sectors. 
  • Ventia’s client contracts are relatively long in duration with the average contract term at inception over five years. Most contain some form of embedded price escalation.

Company Description

While Ventia is not the largest player with an estimated 7.5% share of addressable markets, it is a leading infrastructure maintenance services provider in Australia and New Zealand. Its capabilities span the full asset lifecycle including operations and maintenance, facilities management, minor capital works, environmental services, and other solutions. And its business model is favorably capital-light via flexing of a large contractor base complementing a deep pool of talented employees. Ventia has long-term relationships with a diverse range of public and private sector clients with many client relationships maintained for decades. Contracts are favorably long with an average five-year duration at inception and most containing some form of embedded price escalation.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

ResMed’s minority stake hedges some risk from emerging competition

Business Strategy and Outlook

ResMed is taking a “smart devices” and Big Data approach to further entrench itself as one of the two leading players in the global obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA, market. With cloud-connected devices, physicians can monitor patient compliance and encourage continued use. Higher adherence supports both reimbursement rates from payers and the resupply of masks and accessories. ResMed also plays a key role in producing clinical data that demonstrates treatment can minimise related risks such as hypertension, stroke, heart attack and Alzheimer’s disease. Through its own testing devices and education, ResMed seeks more widespread diagnosis and treatment of OSA. The global OSA homecare device market, is a two-player duopoly with over 80% estimated market share split between ResMed and Philips, with ResMed the market leader in the majority of the 140 countries it competes in. The market offers a large global growth opportunity as penetration within developed markets is estimated at one fifth of the roughly 15% prevalence, and emerging markets are essentially untapped. In the U.S. It is estimated that roughly half of the 22 million people diagnosed with OSA are treated with continuous positive airway pressure, or CPAP, with another 34 million remaining undiagnosed. ResMed operates in over 140 countries with over 900 million people estimated to have sleep apnea globally, indicating the long runway for growth.

ResMed has made acquisitions of home healthcare software platforms as it seeks to leverage the trends of digital health and providing care in a lower-cost setting. Brightree, acquired in 2016, and MatrixCare, acquired in 2019, offer business management software for a range of home health providers. ResMed is currently directing significant capital to this area, and although high returns have largely been unproven, the move has been strategically sound given the structural industry tailwinds. ResMed has a minority stake in Nyxoah who are developing a neurostimulation implant to treat OSA. Although a little near-term risk from this therapy will be due to the higher cost and invasive surgery needed, ResMed’s minority stake hedges some risk from emerging competition.

Financial Strength

ResMed is in a strong financial position. Free cash flow conversion of earnings prior to acquisition spending has averaged 106% over the last five years and has allowed ResMed to quickly repay the debt funding its acquisitions. At the end of fiscal 2021, ResMed reported USD 360 million in net debt representing net debt/EBITDA of only 0.3 times. The free cash flow is to grow to USD 1,469 million by fiscal 2026 from USD 556 million in fiscal 2021, and in the absence of major acquisitions, the company should be in a net cash position over the five-year forecast period. ResMed commenced paying a dividend in fiscal 2013 and doesn’t have a fixed payout ratio policy. The 28% payout ratio is lower than the trailing three-year average of 34% of underlying net income mainly due to ResMed’s significant uplift in earnings. Dividends are to grow at a five-year 15% CAGR versus a trailing five-year CAGR of 6%, and ResMed is likely to seek optionality for further acquisitions in the software-as-a-service segment.

Bulls Say’s

  • The long-term growth opportunity for respiratory homecare devices is sizable as both developed and emerging markets are still significantly underpenetrated.
  • The focus on cloud-connected devices has led to increased adherence, supporting both reimbursement rates and the resupply of masks and accessories.
  • ResMed stands to benefit from Philips’ significant product recall and the launch of its new flagship product, AirSense 11.

Company Profile

ResMed is one of the largest respiratory care device companies globally, primarily developing and supplying flow generators, masks and accessories for the treatment of sleep apnea. Increasing diagnosis of sleep apnea combined with ageing populations and increasing prevalence of obesity is resulting in a structurally growing market. The company earns roughly two thirds of its revenue in the Americas and the balance across other regions dominated by Europe, Japan and Australia. Recent developments and acquisitions have focused on digital health as ResMed is aiming to differentiate itself through the provision of clinical data for use by the patient, medical care advisor and payer in the out-of-hospital setting.

 (Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Dr. Reddy’s has made relatively strong inroads into development of biosimilars

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories is a global pharmaceutical company based in Hyderabad, India. It manufactures and markets generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients in markets across the world, but predominantly in the United States, India, and Eastern Europe. Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers have seen success over the past decade in penetrating the U.S. market, where regulatory hurdles are lower than in Western Europe. With competition on price in a commodified space, the entry of low-cost manufacturers has facilitated a deflationary price environment for generic drugs since 2015, putting substantial pressure on the margins of established manufacturers. Conversely, in India and other countries with lower generics adoption, so-called “branded” generics have seen notable success. Brand generally supports customer loyalty and more-stable prices in these markets. Given the lack of public and private prescription drug insurance and a heavily fragmented supply chain in India, there are fewer catalysts driving the switch to unbranded generics.

Generic manufacturers have taken different approaches to combat margin pressure over the past few years. While some manufacturers have addressed competition by rationalizing their U.S. portfolio and discontinuing low-margin or unprofitable drugs, Dr. Reddy’s has remained focused on expanding its U.S. market share. While its U.S. portfolio has experienced slightly higher deflation compared with peers, its pipeline is increasingly leaning toward injectables and other complex generics that command higher margins and exhibit relatively more price stability. Dr. Reddy’s has made relatively strong inroads into development of biosimilars–near-generic equivalents of biologic drugs–predominantly in India and Russia. However, U.S. and EU approval of Dr. Reddy’s biosimilars remains improbable in the near future, given the relatively more stringent regulatory requirements and marketing investment.

Financial Strength

As of December 2021, Dr. Reddy’s held gross debt of INR 28 billion ($370 million), which is more than offset by the cash on the company’s balance sheet. With very low leverage, the company faces little liquidity risk. This compares favourably with other global generic manufacturers like Teva and Viatris, which are saddled with high leverage as a result of an aggressive acquisition strategy over the past decade. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.34 per share, which translates to a dividend yield of under 1%.

Bulls Say’s

  • Dr. Reddy’s low-labour-cost operations based in India and vertical integration likely provide a low-cost edge. 
  • In the U.S. and Russia, Dr. Reddy’s has grown quickly in OTC generics, which is an attractive segment of the market with slightly higher barriers to entry than conventional retail pharmacy drugs. 
  • Dr. Reddy’s strong branded generic presence in emerging markets provides significant growth opportunities with less price competition than typically seen in developed markets

Company Profile 

Headquartered in India, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories develops and manufactures generic pharmaceutical products sold across the world. The company specializes in low-cost, easy-to-produce small-molecule generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients. Its drug portfolio in recent years has included biosimilar drug launches in select emerging markets and has shifted toward injectables and more complex generic products. Geographically, the company’s sales are well dispersed across North America, India, and other emerging markets.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

SkyCity’s Earnings are Returning as Restrictions Ease

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

SkyCity to deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade, buoyed by the recovery from current coronavirus-induced lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity’s Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm’s narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licenses (exclusive license for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide license expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). These properties have performed strongly, thanks to SkyCity’s solid record of reinvestment, resulting in high property quality, stable visitor growth, and earnings resilience. The quality of these assets, particularly SkyCity Auckland, has helped build the firm’s VIP gaming business. 

SkyCity’s exposure to the volatile VIP gaming market is smaller than that of Australian rivals Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment. VIP revenue typically represents over 20% of Crown’s and Star’s sales, compared with SkyCity’s typical 10%-15%. While high rollers have no alternatives when in Auckland or Adelaide, SkyCity effectively competes as a destination casino on a global scale against locations such as The Star in Sydney and Crown Melbourne. The VIP gaming will be a negligible share of revenue in fiscal 2021 amid border closures. However, the segment recovered as border restrictions ease and tourism recovers, to around 15% of revenue. To protect its competitive position and retain appeal, SkyCity is investing in its key properties. Successful execution of the two major projects in Auckland and Adelaide is key. They provide good earnings accretion opportunities, in particular at the core Auckland property. This includes a NZD 750 million upgrade to SkyCity Auckland to be completed by calendar 2025 and a AUD 330 million expansion for SkyCity Adelaide, a transformational project completed in fiscal 2021. Beyond 2025, when these expansion projects come on line in full, SkyCity Entertainment is expected to resume generating excess returns and revert to a strongly cash-generating business on a substantially stepped-up earnings base.

Financial Strengths:  

Despite near-term earnings weakness, SkyCity’s balance sheet remains robust, bolstered by a NZD 230 million capital raise completed at the end of fiscal 2020 and extensions to new and existing debt facilities. The firm received covenant waivers for the first half of fiscal 2022, given earnings weakness, and second-half gearing covenants are to be tested at double second-half EBITDA (rather than for the full year) with a higher testing threshold. While the higher threshold was undisclosed, the forecasted second-half net debt/EBITDA to rise to around 3.0–above the firm’s target range of 2.0 to 2.5, but comfortably below estimated covenant levels of closer to 5.0. The net debt/EBITDA is forecasted below 2.0 in fiscal 2023–below the target range of around 2.0 to 2.5. The completion of the NZD 330 million Adelaide expansion in fiscal 2021 takes some pressure off cash flows, and of the further NZD 500 million in capital expenditure flagged for the NZICC project, around NZD 380 million will be funded by insurance payments to be received following the NZICC fire. SkyCity’s balance sheet shall continue to improve over coming years as earnings recover, with net debt/EBITDA dropping below 1.0 in fiscal 2024 as expansionary projects roll off and earnings recover. SkyCity’s balance sheet will have the strength to continue paying around 75% of underlying earnings as dividends, while still being able to fund expansion projects at Auckland in the meantime.

Bulls Say: 

  • Long-dated exclusive licenses to operate the only casino in Auckland and Adelaide allow SkyCity to enjoy economic returns in a regulated environment.
  • Transformative capital expenditure is expected at SkyCity’s Auckland and Adelaide casinos will lead to a sizable step-up in earnings.
  • SkyCity is well positioned to benefit from the emerging middle and upper class in China.

Company Description: 

SkyCity Entertainment operates a number of casino-hotel complexes across Australia and New Zealand. The flagship property is SkyCity Auckland, the holder and operator of an exclusive casino license (expiring in 2048) in New Zealand’s most populous city. The company also owns smaller casinos in Hamilton and Queenstown. In Australia, the company operates SkyCity Adelaide (exclusive license expiring in 2035).

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Shares Small Cap

Air New Zealand Poised to Thrive As Borders Reopen

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global airline industry. Lockdowns, border restrictions, and social distancing measures have clipped Air New Zealand’s wings. Stringent New Zealand entry requirements for international arrivals have decimated passenger revenues, and despite aggressive cost cuts, and operating deleverage to lead to an after-tax loss in fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, Air New Zealand remains well-positioned to participate in the recovery as skies gradually reopen. New Zealand’s strict policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have effectively eliminated community transmission, and continued international travel restrictions will lead to a boon in domestic tourism. Air New Zealand typically enjoys around 80% market share, to recover to pre-COVID levels by the beginning of fiscal 2023. The international recovery is expected, where the airline derives the majority of revenue, to be more gradual. 

Air New Zealand’s international business remains effectively grounded. While there is room for optimism amid potential travel bubbles and continuing vaccine rollout, and as Air New Zealand has permanently condensed its wide-body fleet, a full recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels of flying in its long-haul business. Air New Zealand’s loyalty program, Airpoints, to some extent cushion earnings volatility in the flying business. Despite a lack of flying activity, the expected loyalty business to be profitable. Airpoints is essentially a capital-light business attached to a capital-intensive flying business. Consumers want to earn loyalty points when they fly, and status benefits are important for corporate passengers. The program generates earnings from the sale of points to partners–notably credit card companies, but also travel-related businesses such as hotels and rental car companies. This offers more ways to redeem and earn points, attracting more customers, which in turn attracts new partners–a network effect but not enough to warrant a moat for the group.

Financial Strengths:  

Despite near-term earnings pressure, Air New Zealand will be able to weather the storm, particularly following the NZD 2.2 billion recapitalisation in fiscal 2022–including an equity raise of NZD 1.25 billion. While raising capital at nearly half the updated fair value estimate is dilutive from a valuation standpoint, the equitable structure of a renounceable rights offer includes most shareholders, meaning investors need not be diluted. The airline is aggressively cutting costs in the short term, including delaying and cancelling NZD 700 million in capital expenditure, suspending dividends, and significant staffing reductions. Fiscal 2021 labour costs were nearly 40% lower than fiscal 2019 levels. Air New Zealand canceled payment of its first-half fiscal 2020 dividend, withholding around NZD 123 million at its disposal, and declared no final dividend. The firm paid no dividends in fiscal 2021, while the government funding agreement is in place, and dividends are not expected until fiscal 2026, as recovering earnings are first used to deleverage the balance sheet. Monthly cash burn was largely been stemmed in the second half of fiscal 2021, but returned at a rate of NZD 51 million in the first half of fiscal 2022 as lockdowns re-emerged–down from around NZD 96 million in the first half. Following the recapitalisation, the airline has around NZD 1.8 billion in pro forma liquidity as at March 25, 2022.

Bulls Say: 

  • As the largest airline in the New Zealand domestic market, new entrants would likely struggle to build Air New Zealand’s scale and route frequency to attract corporate customers. 
  • Air New Zealand’s earnings are highly leveraged to improving macroeconomic conditions and unrestricted air travel.
  • Limited cases of COVID-19 community transmission in New Zealand should benefit Air New Zealand’s domestic business

Company Description: 

Air New Zealand, majority owned by the New Zealand Government, provides air passenger and cargo transport services within New Zealand, as well as to and from Australia, the South-West Pacific, Asia, North America, the United Kingdom, and South America. Air New Zealand also encompasses business units providing engineering and ground handling services. Air New Zealand dominates the local market, with around 80% market share, although the majority of revenue is derived from international and trans-Tasman activity.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Reducing Scotts’ FVE to $130 on Lowered Near-Term Outlook; Shares Remain Undervalued

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the largest and most recognizable name in the U.S. consumer lawn and gardening market. The firm sells a wide array of products aimed at helping consumers grow and maintain their lawns. The U.S. consumer segment, which consists of lawn and gardening products, generated 65% of total revenue in fiscal 2021. Scotts has generated healthy margins on its products through effective branding, which allows it to maintain favourable product positioning and shelf space in the largest mass-market and home improvement retailers. Scotts has also been able to charge a premium over competitors because of its strong brand equity. While actual product differentiation in the industry is limited, consumers have been willing to pay up for Scotts’ products.

Future demand for gardening products will depend on growth in the housing industry. We expect housing starts to average a little over 1.5 million per year through 2030. While housing starts alone should increase demand for gardening products, we see some secular trends that will offset the growth. Living-preference shifts to smaller lots and urban centers should result in less need for gardening products. Additionally, a greater proportion of gardening products will be sold online. Currently, the vast majority of sales occur at brick-and-mortar retail. Even if Scotts increases its online sales presence, it may lose some pricing power as many products in the gardening industry shift away from brick-and-mortar retailers to online platforms, where Scotts will likely face more low-priced competition. The Hawthorne segment, which includes indoor gardening, hydroponics, and lighting equipment, contributed a little under 30% of revenue in fiscal 2021. Its growth is closely tied to the legalization of cannabis in the U.S., as its products are frequently used by licensed growers. Recent acquisitions in the business should position Scotts to take advantage of growing demand from states where cannabis has been recently legalized. The majority of U.S. consumer sales typically come from Home Depot and Lowe’s. However, this should decline as a percentage of companywide revenue as the Hawthorne segment grows.

Financial Strength

Scotts Miracle-Gro currently has elevated leverage. As of March 31, we calculate net debt/adjusted EBITDA was nearly 5 times, well above with management’s long-term target leverage of 3.5 times. However, the company built up inventory in both the U.S. consumer and Hawthorne businesses in anticipation of improving volumes in the second half of the fiscal year. As the company works down its inventory and uses the cash to repay debt, we see no issues with its current financial position. Further, as the Hawthorne business recovers from the current industry oversupply, we expect EBITDA growth will resume and leverage ratios will fall back to management’s targets. Over the last five years, dividends grew at an average mid-single-digit rate. Management has indicated that it intends to continue raising the dividend, and Scotts should have the free cash flow to do so.

Bulls Say’s

  • U.S. household formation growth will drive demand for gardening products. As the market leader in consumer gardening products, Scotts will benefit from the secular housing trend. 
  • Consumer behaviour has changed as a result of COVID-19, with more consumers engaging in gardening as an activity. As the largest player in the consumer gardening market, Scotts will benefit from this change. 
  • The emerging cannabis industry represents a lucrative opportunity for Scotts, which is well positioned to capture this segment of the market.

Company Profile 

Scotts Miracle-Gro is the largest provider of gardening and lawncare products in the United States. The majority of the company’s sales are to large retailers that include Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. Scotts Miracle-Gro can sell its products at a higher price point than its competition because of a well-recognized portfolio of brands that include Miracle-Gro, Roundup, Ortho, Tomcat, and Scotts. Scotts is also the leading supplier of cannabis-growing equipment in North America through its Hawthorne business.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Global stocks Shares

Medtronic Finishes Fiscal 2022 as Anticipated; No Change to Our FVE on Tempered View of 2023

Business Strategy & Outlook:   

Medtronic’s standing as the largest pure-play medical device maker remains a force to be reckoned with in the med-tech landscape. Pairing Medtronic’s diversified product portfolio aimed at a wide range of chronic diseases with its expansive selection of products for acute care in hospitals has bolstered Medtronic’s position as a key partner for its hospital customers. Medtronic has historically focused on innovation, designing and manufacturing devices to address cardiac care, neurological and spinal conditions, and diabetes. All along, the firm has remained focused on its fundamental strategy of innovation. It is often first to market with new products and has invested heavily in internal research and development efforts as well as acquiring emerging technologies. However, in the postreform healthcare world where there are higher hurdles for securing reimbursement for next-generation technology, Medtronic has slightly shifted its strategy to include partnering more closely with its hospital clients by offering greater breadth of products and services to help hospitals operate more efficiently. By partnering more closely and integrating itself into more hospital operations, Medtronic is well positioned to take advantage of more business opportunities in the value-based reimbursement environment, in our view. In particular, Medtronic has been pioneering risk-based contracting around some of its cardiac and diabetes products, which company thinks is attractive to hospital clients and payers alike. 

Company has always appreciated Medtronic’s diverse portfolio, where certain waning product lines would be offset by growth in other categories. The addition of devices and consumables used in the surgical suite should further stabilize potential speed bumps in individual product lines. The COVID-19 disruption added more near-term turbulence, especially with supply chain issues and delays in nonpandemic patient volume, but the company remains confident that underlying demand for many of these therapies and Medtronic’s ongoing innovation should prevail over the longer term.

Financial Strengths:  

Medtronic’s financial health deteriorated somewhat after financing a significant portion of the Covidien merger with new debt issuance. Covidien shareholders owned about 30% of the combined entity at the time of the merger, which allowed the combined entity to invert to Covidien’s Irish domicile, lowering its tax rate and enhancing its ability to access overseas cash. At the end of January 2016, Medtronic owed $36 billion in debt, or around 4 times adjusted EBITDA, which is up from around 2 times historically. Since then, the firm has paid off approximately $14 billion of the debt. The firm ended fiscal 2022 with debt to adjusted EBITDA around 3 times, which is manageable, but slightly higher than the 2.5 times that is common in the medical technology industry. Nonetheless, the firm generates strong cash flow that can be put toward tuck-in acquisitions. Beyond its debt obligations and M&A, the firm aims to return a minimum of 50% of its annual free cash flow to shareholders but has been in the 60% to 100% range in recent years, primarily through its dividend and peripherally due to opportunistic share repurchase

Bulls Say: 

  • Medtronic has historically held roughly 50% share in its core heart devices. It’s also the market leader in spinal products, insulin pumps, and neuromodulators for chronic pain. 
  • Medtronic’s pipeline contains treatments for atrial fibrillation, mitral valve disease, and renal denervation for hypertension. If these new therapies prove effective, Medtronic could dominate three more potentially large markets. 
  • Medtronic often finds novel ways to apply familiar technologies, like using the implantable electronic stimulation in pacemakers to address fecal incontinence and chronic pain

Company Description:  

One of the largest medical device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for almost 50% of the company’s total sales.

(Source: Morningstar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Vertex’s Narrow Moat Based on Intangible Assets From CF Drugs; Diversified Pipeline Supports Growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Vertex was once known for discovering Incivek, a blockbuster hepatitis C drug now overshadowed by a robust cystic fibrosis franchise with megablockbuster potential. The company’s approved cystic fibrosis drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta, which will make Vertex eligible to treat about 90% of the CF population, assuming international and pediatric approvals. Vertex is anticipated to maintain its dominant position in CF, given the strong efficacy of its therapies, lengthy patents, and lack of competition, while developing pipeline candidates in other rare indications to spur growth. Cystic fibrosis is a rare indication characterized by a progressive and deadly decline in lung function, affecting approximately 83,000 people worldwide. Since its 2012 launch, Kalydeco has captured most of its target patient population (less than 10% of CF patients with specific genetic mutations) and has become the backbone of combination therapies, including Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta. Orkambi’s launch in 2015 expanded the eligible patient population by adding CF patients with homozygous F508del mutations, but its uptake was slower because of its safety profile. Symdeko’s 2018 launch didn’t come with any worries over safety and contributed over $700 million in revenue in its first year, targeting the same population as Orkambi plus some additional patients. Trikafta, a triple-combination therapy, has had a strong launch since its U.S. approval in 2019, significantly expanding the company’s addressable patient population to heterozygous patients. 

Vertex’s comprehensive approach has already shaped the treatment of CF and earned it a dominant position worldwide. The chronic nature of therapy and limited competition on the horizon heighten the CF market’s attractiveness. Given these positive market dynamics, Vertex’s CF program could possibly grow to over $11 billion within the forecast period. Vertex’s pipeline spans several rare diseases, including CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease, VX-147 for APOL1-mediated kidney disease, and small-molecule inhibitors for pain. The CF franchise will provide ample cash for the development of these candidates.

Financial Strength

Vertex is in strong financial health, given its robust cash flow generation and low debt. At the end of 2021, Vertex held $7.5 billion in cash and investments and had about $557 million in total finance lease obligations. Vertex reached profitability in 2017, and its cystic fibrosis portfolio continues to expand. The company launched its triple combination therapy, Trikafta, in the U.S. in 2019, and it is expected to operate at maintainable profitable levels throughout the explicit forecast. Vertex has utilized its cash to expand its pipeline outside of cystic fibrosis, which has included acquisitions, collaboration agreements, and ongoing internal research and development. Vertex is expected will continue using its ample cash flow to build a more diversified rare-disease portfolio as it looks beyond the cystic fibrosis market.

Bulls Say’s

  • The firm’s cystic fibrosis therapies are poised to dominate the lucrative market for the foreseeable future, based on the disease-modifying potential of the drugs, chronic use by patients, and limited competition. 
  • Vertex’s leading drug candidates were mostly discovered in-house, lending credibility to its drug discovery technology and potential to generate additional pipeline candidates. 
  • Vertex’s combination therapies have lengthy patents, protecting the profitable cystic fibrosis portfolio from generics.

Company Profile 

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company that discovers and develops small-molecule drugs for the treatment of serious diseases. Its key drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta/Kaftrio for cystic fibrosis, where Vertex therapies remain the standard of care globally. In addition to its focus on cystic fibrosis, Vertex is diversifying its pipeline through gene-editing therapies such as CTX001 for beta-thalassemia and sickle-cell disease, small-molecule inhibitors targeting acute and chronic pain using non-opioid treatments, and small-molecule inhibitors of APOL1-mediated kidney diseases. Vertex is also investigating cell therapies to deliver a potential functional cure for type 1 diabetes.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

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Shares Small Cap

Since fiscal 2016, Cleanaway has invested in excess of AUD 100 million in greenfield materials recovery, waste treatment, and EfW projects

Business Strategy and Outlook

It is a favourable Cleanaway’s strategy, which seeks to maintain its leading position in commercial and industrial, or C&I, and municipal waste collections and to continue to improve its moat profile by investing in midstream materials recovery assets and, where possible, in downstream disposal assets. Cleanaway’s is the leading player in C&I and municipal waste with around 140,000 C&I customers and some 90 municipal council waste collection contracts. The economics of the waste management industry are overwhelmingly local in nature. Cleanaway’s strong presence in all of Australia’s state capital cities is aimed at local market dominance. This local market dominance in turn delivers route density that better spreads fixed costs–an imperative for profit generation in waste collection. 

Cleanaway is a relative latecomer to disposal, biological treatment, and midstream materials recovery with global players waste management competitors Veolia and Suez possessing high-quality disposal assets Cleanaway cannot replicate. An exit from the Australian market by either player would be the only route to materially increasing disposal earnings. As such, the sale of the Lucas Heights Landfill by Suez to Cleanaway–the result of the Veolia-Suez merger–is a rare windfall. It is hopeful about Cleanaway’s growth into materials recovery which feature more favourable economics than waste collection. Under its “BluePrint 2030” capital allocation strategy, the group will continue to focus investment in materials recovery and energy from waste, or EfW. Since fiscal 2016, Cleanaway has invested in excess of AUD 100 million in greenfield materials recovery, waste treatment, and EfW projects. The recent purchase of the materials recovery assets of SKM Recycling represents a further step toward Cleanaway’s goal of moving further into the industries midstream. 

Further diversifying Cleanaway away from waste collection is the acquisition of Toxfree in late fiscal 2018, skewing Cleanaway’s earnings stream away from collections, the most competitive segment of the waste management value chain.

Financial Strength

Cleanaway debt-funded its acquisition of key Australian post-collection assets from Suez. Leverage–defined as net debt/EBITDA excluding IFRS-16 lease liabilities–sits at 2.24 times at the end of the first half of fiscal 2022, up from 1.0 times at fiscal 2021 year-end. Nonetheless, significant headroom to Cleanaway’s leverage covenant on existing debt facilities–calibrated at 3.0 times–exists. Therefore, balance sheet flexibility exists should further acquisition opportunities arise. It is comforting with Cleanaway’s balance sheet amid COVID-19 induced turbulence. Specifically, Cleanaway’s liquidity position is more than ample to secure the business’ operations without external financing through the medium-term. With minimal debt maturities over the fiscal 2021–fiscal 2024 period, Cleanaway’s sources of cash— those being cash at bank, undrawn debt and operating cash flow–are more than sufficient to fund Cleanaway’s ongoing operations over said period. Cleanaway’s earnings exhibit little volatility through the economic cycle. As a result, its conservatively positioned balance sheet provides ample flexibility for further capital allocation to materials recovery and waste disposal assets —whether bolt-on or greenfield–under Cleanaway’s BluePrint 2030 strategy. Return of capital to shareholders could be considered in the absence of suitable mid- or downstream waste asset investment opportunities.

Bulls Say’s

  • Cleanaway is benefiting from industry consolidation. 
  • Municipal waste contracts provide relatively stable cash flows through the economic cycle. 
  • Capital allocation improved markedly under outgoing CEO Vik Bansal’s guidance.

Company Profile 

Cleanaway Waste Management is Australia’s largest waste management business with a national footprint spanning collection, midstream waste processing, treatment, and valorisation, and downstream waste disposal. Cleanaway is active in municipal and commercial and industrial, or C&I, waste stream segments and in nonhazardous and hazardous liquid waste and medical waste streams following the acquisition of Toxfree in fiscal 2018. While Cleanaway is allocating greater capital to midstream waste processing and treatment, earnings remain skewed toward waste collection. Cleanaway is particularly strong in C&I and municipal waste collection with strong market share in all large Australian metro waste collection markets. 

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

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