We note that our revised expectation of margin expansion is still higher than management’s plan and we currently see upside potential in the low- to mid-teens percent. Throughout calendar 2020, the company’s share price grew significantly as a result of high growth expectations for HDS’ strain wave reduction gears, which serve as vital components for high precision machinery like industrial robots and semiconductor equipment. However, since reaching its peak of around JPY 9,200 at the end of 2020, HDS’ share price has fallen year to date, as the market’s excessively high growth expectations have been corrected.
The medium-term plan, ending in fiscal 2023, implies that operating margin will return to normalized levels in fiscal 2023–at 21.4%, from 2.3% in 2020. We believe the plan is conservative, but we also take this into account for our downward revision to our projection. Further, we consider the potential impact of pricing, as management commented that a domestic industrial robot manufacturer (HDS’ customer) hopes to eventually adopt a “two company” supplier policy for small-size reduction gears. At the moment, compared with other manufacturers’ gears, there is a significant pricing premium on HDS’ strain wave reduction gears due to hurdles by other companies in replicating the quality of HDS’ high-end gears. We note that this impact would not be immediate and that despite the likelihood of reduced pricing over the medium/long term, HDS’ wide moat remains intact, as the high-end strain wave gear market is not a “winner take all” market and will likely continue to have high barriers to entry.
Over the medium term, we assume margins will increase from 22% to 25.5% between fiscal 2022 and 2025, compared to 25% to 28% in our previous projection during the same year. Further, we maintain our fiscal 2021 operating margin of 18%, which is also higher than management guidance of 12.7% margin for the same year. We think this is possible, based on higher sales assumptions compared to guidance and after considering its high contribution margin of about 50%. We note that our assumption still implies operating margin of 5 percentage points lower compared to fiscal 2017 levels despite similar companywide revenue levels. We attribute this margin gap between 2017 and our 2021 projection to: 1) higher production-related costs, including increased expenses related to the operations of its new factories in Japan and North America as well as record D&A levels as a result of peak capital investments in 2018 and 2019; 2) increased R&D spending as part of its medium-term plan; and 3) near term rise in costs related to packaging and shipping.
For the current fiscal year, we assume 47% top-line year-on-year growth, which is higher than both guidance and our previous projection (40% and 37% year-on-year growth, respectively), as we expect stronger top-line recovery in Japan/Asia and Europe segments. We attribute this to order improvement in the fourth quarter, which exceeded our previous expectations, and likelihood of further increases in orders/sales throughout the fiscal year from industrial robot and collaborative robot, or cobot, manufacturers in these regions, as factory automation investments in the automobile industry pick up. Fourth-quarter consolidated orders in the Japan/Asia segment more than doubled year on year, and order growth in the Europe segment also turned positive in the fourth quarter with 12% year-on-year growth, after two consecutive declines from same periods of the previous year. We expect these factors will also contribute to margin expansion going forward.
The company’s fiscal 2020 year-end results, ending in March, were in line with our expectations, as companywide revenue remained flat year on year, while operating margin remained low at 2.3%–though this is an improvement from minus 0.5% in 2019. Margins have been impacted by high fixed costs from its newly constructed factories in Japan and North America, where HDS spent in excess of JPY 30 billion or 30% of sales collectively in 2018 and 2019. While the parent entity’s standalone operating margin improved by about 8 percentage points to 10.6%, from strong sales to Japanese industrial robot makers, other key group companies in North America and Europe realized declining operating income from lower sales for mainly non-industrial robot applications (such as for medical, amusement, and service robot industries).
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc Company Profile
Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., or HDS, manufactures and sells precision control equipment and components worldwide. It offers high-precision reduction gears (speed reducers) under the Harmonic Drive brand as well as other mechatronics products such as rotary actuators, linear actuators, and AC servo motors. The company also provides planetary-gear speed reducers under the Accu Drive and Harmonic Planetary brands. Its products are used in industrial robots, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and other high precision equipment. HDS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Source: Morningstar
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