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Nine’s Estimates Updated for News Supply Deals with Digital Giants

We see competitive intensity continuing, preventing any sustained improvement in Nine Network’s margins. The same is true for digital division, which operates in the equally competitive digital advertising space. However, Nine Entertainment has a strong balance sheet and is a high cash-generating business. This provides management with significant flexibility, allowing it to invest in marquee television content, diversify into digital businesses, and engage in capital management initiatives. The group has been executing admirably to date and culminated in the merger with Fairfax (consummation in December 2018), using mostly Nine shares as consideration.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Despite boasting a portfolio of entertainment-based divisions, Nine Entertainment’s key asset is Nine Network, a free-to-air television business that operates in a structurally challenged industry.
  • The group has a strong balance sheet, giving management the luxury to invest in content and emerging delivery platforms to fortify the current revenue base.
  • Benefits of the merger with Fairfax hinges on synergies management extracts from the combined entity. We forecast cost savings of AUD 62 million, but this may be conservative, given the potential upside from collaboration and savings on news-gathering resource rationalisation.

Company Profile

Nine Entertainment operates Nine Network, a free-to-air television network spread across five capital cities, as well as in regional Northern New South Wales and Darwin. It also owns Australia’s third-largest portfolio of online digital properties, one that reaches more than 60% of the country’s active online audience. The merger with Fairfax combines Nine’s top-ranked TV

network and the second-largest newspaper group, topped with a collection of quality digital assets in Nine Digital, subscription video on demand operator Stan, and Fairfax’s 59%-owned Domain. It ensures the merged entity remains relevant in the eyes of audiences and advertisers.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Sales Surge at O’Reilly Automotive Inc

The firm has profited from increases in miles driven and average vehicle age as well as the benefits of its expansive distribution network in ensuring part availability, leading to adjusted returns on invested capital that have grown more than

900 basis points since 2010, to 22% in 2019 (before a pandemic-related surge led to a 30% 2020 mark).

With a strong operational record and national presence, O’Reilly features a highly productive infrastructure, with strong margins despite investments in service and high levels of part availability. While other chains have attempted to adopt a similar dual-market approach, we believe O’Reilly’s expertise and customer relationships give it an advantage that will take time for peers to match. This should keep O’Reilly’s relative positioning strong among the national retailers as the industry consolidates, with large-scale participants like O’Reilly increasingly favored due to their ability to provide hard-to-find parts to commercial (and, to a lesser extent, DIY) customers more quickly, reliably, and efficiently. We estimate the firm should achieve meaningful share growth in both segments, to 12% in DIY and 8% in commercial from 10% and 6% before the pandemic, respectively, over the next decade.

While O’Reilly’s operating margins grew from 13.6% in 2010 to 18.9% in 2019 (pandemic-fueled cost leverage led to a 20.8% 2020 mark), we see room for expansion as it leverages fixed costs and as house label products gain increasing acceptance and adoption. The strength of its brand, coupled with its cost advantage, should enable the firm to foster new and deepening relationships with its customers by providing a better standard of service, protecting O’Reilly’s results from competitive threats from smaller and like-sized peers. Although the pandemic’s sales surge should ease in mid-2021 as vaccination rates rise and comparisons become challenging, O’Reilly’s long-term strength remains rooted in its competitive advantages.

Company Profile

O’Reilly is one of the largest sellers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY customers (41% and 59% of 2020 sales, respectively). The company sells branded as well as own-label products, with the latter category comprising nearly half of sales. O’Reilly had 5,616 stores as of the end of 2020, spread across 47 U.S. states and including 22 stores in Mexico. The firm serves professional and DIY customers through its store network, and also boasts approximately 765 sales personnel targeting commercial buyers.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Vocus Group Ltd – Spin Off Business

The February 2016 merger between these companies transformed the enlarged Vocus into a full-service, vertically integrated player with the necessary ammunition to materially lift its share in all segments of the Australian and New Zealand telecommunications markets. However, the group has been beset by integration and execution risks, leading to a string of board and management changes. Under new management, the turnaround is now progressing solidly.

Key Considerations

  • Vocus’ extensive fibre network infrastructure has the potential to materially lift the company’s share of the corporate and small business telecommunications markets.
  • Vocus’ Australian retail unit faces margin pressure in the National Broadband Network, or NBN, era.
  • Vocus is well and truly past the “fix and repair” stage, and is on the “shed and grow” phase of its journey, with network services clearly identified as its core unit longer-term.
  • Vocus owns and operates an extensive fibre network that drives attractive economics in its fibre and Ethernet business and provides a durable competitive advantage.
  • The marriage of Vocus’ infrastructure and M2’s strong salesforce has the potential to materially lift the company’s share of both the corporate and the small business markets.
  • Vocus’ presence in the New Zealand telecommunications market is underappreciated by investors and is a fertile source of growth.
  • The merger with M2 has exposed Vocus to the margindilutive NBN regime.
  • While steps are being taken to improve in these areas, it is abundantly clear Vocus has bitten off more than it can chew with its recent spate of mergers and acquisitions, with reporting and technology systems woefully inadequate for what is a major player in the telecom big leagues.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Wesfarmers Ltd – Exceptional Growth

Wesfarmers is one of Australia’s largest private-sector employers, with more than 100,000 employees. Wesfarmers has a wide moat, which is sourced from cost advantages derived from its significant retail scale. After the demerger of Coles in 2018, returns on equity are no longer affected by goodwill associated with the 2008 acquisition of Coles and returns on invested capital comfortably exceed the group’s weighted cost of capital.

Key Investment Consideration

  • Leading Australian hardware retailer Bunnings generates about half of the group’s operating income and we expect the chain to continue building its market share. Bunnings is exposed to the health of the Australian housing market and the cyclical weakness in home prices is likely to negatively affect sales and profitability.
  • Wesfarmers offers investors an opportunity to diversify across different categories in the discretionary retail sector, beyond hardware, with additional diversification provided by its smaller industrials division.
  • Wesfarmers is Australia’s best-known conglomerate. Activities span discount department stores, office supplies, home improvement, energy manufacture and distribution, industrial and safety supplies, chemicals, and fertilisers. Business interests can be divided into two broad groups: retail and industrial.
  • The company’s hardware store footprint across the Australian economy and its leading market positions within several segments, combined with strong underlying return on invested capital (before goodwill), lead to our wide moat rating.
  • Wesfarmers is one of Australia’s largest retailers, and despite the Coles demerger, still earns around 80% of sales from the retail channel across discount department stores, hardware/home improvement, and office supplies.
  • The Bunnings is the undisputed leader in Australian home improvement retailing. Based on its market position, Bunnings could start giving up some volume growth and improve profitability by increasing prices. OThe diversification of Wesfarmers’ revenue streams across multiple retail categories and industrial businesses lowers earnings volatility and better predictability of dividends for income investors.
  • Wesfarmers’ strong balance sheet lowers funding costs, but also provides the financial firepower to opportunistically pursue acquisitions.
  • Wesfarmers’ retailing businesses are pro-cyclical and the near-term outlook for the Australian economy and consumer spending is mixed at best.
  • Mergers and acquisitions are risky and can be value destructive to shareholders. Wesfarmers’ most recent acquisition, Homebase in the U.K. and Kidman Resources were ill-timed and cost investors dearly.
  • The department store segment is grappling with intense competition from online, international apparel retailers and most importantly Amazon Australia, but are also confronted with the secular decline of thedepartment store format.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Westpac Banking Corp– Earnings To Retrace

Margins are currently being compressed as cash rates fall to historically low levels and demand for credit growth remains weak. Starved of revenue growth opportunities, the bank will focus on cost-cutting initiatives. A significant penalty for breaching anti-money-laundering laws has been agreed hurts 2020 earnings, as will higher loan impairment expenses over the next few years. During tough economic conditions, capital strength is paramount, with the dividend payout ratio expected to remain between 50% and 70%.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Market concerns about housing and weaker economic conditions are exaggerated. After a period of exponential growth Australian house prices cooled in 2017 and 2018, but a collapse remains unlikely without a sustained spike in unemployment.
  • Cost-saving initiatives are needed to further improve operational efficiency and increase returns.
  • Common equity Tier 1 capital exceeds regulatory requirements but changes to capital requirements in New Zealand, regulatory penalties, rising credit stress, and additional customer remediation costs have the potential to reduce this comfortable position.
  • Improving economic conditions underpin profit growth from fiscal 2021. Productivity improvements are likely from fiscal 2022.
  • Cost and capital advantages over regional banks and neo-banks provide a strong platform to drive credit growth.
  • Consumer banking provides earnings diversity to complement the more volatile returns generated from business and wholesale banking activities.
  • The withdrawal of personal financial advice by Westpac salaried financial advisors reduces compliance and regulatory risk.
  • Slow core earnings growth has resurfaced because of low loan growth, margin compression, subdued wealth and markets income, lower banking fee income.
  • A sound capital position will be tested by inflation in risk weighted assets.
  • Increasing pressure on stressed global credit markets could increase wholesale funding costs.
  • Bad debts remain under control, but large provisions are being taken in anticipation that COVID-19 will have a large negative impact on many businesses and households.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Airbus Build Rate Announcement Prompts Us to Slightly Bump Up Our GE Fair Value Estimate

First, GE has materially reduced its debt burden by $30 billion during Culp’s tenure. While some portfolio decisions like the sale of biopharma were painful, they were well-priced and provide the firm with critical flexibility to shift from a persistent defensive to offensive posture. While GE industrial net debt/EBITDA remains high, we think that the eventual aerospace recovery and continuous improvement initiatives will help drive this figure below 2.5 times by 2023. The gradual sale of Baker Hughes furthers GE deleveraging goals, while allowing the firm to focus on its core portfolio.

Second, we believe narrow-body commercial revenue should recover at a more accelerated pace relative to wide-bodies given favorable domestic over international travel trends. We also expect highly profitable narrow-body aftermarket services will recover ahead of the rest of the commercial aerospace portfolio since this business is driven by departures as opposed to revenue passenger miles. Deferring shop visits can add 20%-30% to airlines’ costs, and passenger survey data persistently reveals a majority of passengers are willing to travel once vaccinated. From this standpoint, GE is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, with more narrow-bodies that are 10 years or younger than the rest of the industry, and roughly 62% of its fleet seeing one shop visit or less. At a minimum, we believe GE has an opportunity to enjoy strong incremental margins on a recovery matching decremental margins during the recession.

Finally, healthcare is a global leader in precision health, with technology helping practitioners gain valuable insights and eliminating waste in the healthcare system. We expect 50-basis points of consistent margin improvement on lower mid-single-digit growth.

Fair Values and Profit Maximisers

After reviewing Airbus’ announcement that it’s increasing production rates for the A320 family to 64 per month by the second quarter of 2023, we raise our GE fair value estimate to $15.70 from $15.30. Airbus may ask suppliers to enable production rates to as high as 75 per month by 2025. However, we would like to see Airbus build a bigger backlog before increasing our forecast to these levels. Even so, we think this supports our view that the back half of 2021 should witness a rosier commercial aero outlook based on the domestic travel data we previously highlighted.

Even with an estimated $3.7 billion headwind from the end of most of GE’s factoring program, we’re expecting just over $4.6 billion of industrial free cash flow. We also model adjusted EPS of $0.28 for 2021, just over the top end of management’s guide. Nonetheless, we still value GE at over 20 times 2023 adjusted EPS, or about 17.5 times 2023 industrial free cash flow per share. In our view, the two most important contributors to GE’s earning power lie in GE Aviation and GE Healthcare. Aviation will have significant headwinds in the front half of 2021. Nonetheless passenger survey data and airline booking data suggest significant pent-up demand. Longer term, we think global middle income class growth will drive demand once more and help GE commercial aviation recover lost sales by 2024 to year-end 2019 levels. GE’s fleet is young and strongly positioned in narrow bodies, which should help GE as domestic travel recovers ahead of international travel. Further, a majority of its fleet is still yet to see over one shop visit. Airlines deferring maintenance, moreover, can add considerable costs to their bottom line.

As for GE Healthcare, we assume key market drivers include increased access for healthcare services from emerging economies and an aging U.S. population, coupled with digital initiatives that save practitioners’ time, while protecting them from risks. Rolling this up, we believe these factors will help drive lower mid-single-digit sales growth, coupled with a minimum 25 basis point improvement in year-over-year margins. For Power and Renewables, we see both segments benefiting from the energy transition, but with the lion’s share of the sales growth opportunity flowing through to renewables. That said, we expect minimal contributions to profitability over the next couple of years from either business, before ramping up to mid-single-digit plus margins by midcycle.

General Electric’s Company Profile

GE was formed through the combination of two companies in 1892, including one with historical ties to American inventor Thomas Edison. Today, GE is a global leader in air travel, precision health, and in the energy transition. The company is known for its differentiated technology and its massive industrial installed base of equipment sprawled throughout the world. That installed base most notably includes aerospace engines, gas and steam turbines, onshore and offshore wind turbines, as well as medical diagnostic and mobile equipment. GE earns most of its profits on the service revenue of that equipment, which is generally higher-margin. The company is led by former Danaher alum Larry Culp who is leading a multi-year turnaround of the storied conglomerate based on Lean principles.

Source: Morningstar

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Lowering Harmonic Drive’s FVE but Still See Upside Potential; Wide Moat Remains Intact

We note that our revised expectation of margin expansion is still higher than management’s plan and we currently see upside potential in the low- to mid-teens percent. Throughout calendar 2020, the company’s share price grew significantly as a result of high growth expectations for HDS’ strain wave reduction gears, which serve as vital components for high precision machinery like industrial robots and semiconductor equipment. However, since reaching its peak of around JPY 9,200 at the end of 2020, HDS’ share price has fallen year to date, as the market’s excessively high growth expectations have been corrected.

The medium-term plan, ending in fiscal 2023, implies that operating margin will return to normalized levels in fiscal 2023–at 21.4%, from 2.3% in 2020. We believe the plan is conservative, but we also take this into account for our downward revision to our projection. Further, we consider the potential impact of pricing, as management commented that a domestic industrial robot manufacturer (HDS’ customer) hopes to eventually adopt a “two company” supplier policy for small-size reduction gears. At the moment, compared with other manufacturers’ gears, there is a significant pricing premium on HDS’ strain wave reduction gears due to hurdles by other companies in replicating the quality of HDS’ high-end gears. We note that this impact would not be immediate and that despite the likelihood of reduced pricing over the medium/long term, HDS’ wide moat remains intact, as the high-end strain wave gear market is not a “winner take all” market and will likely continue to have high barriers to entry.

Over the medium term, we assume margins will increase from 22% to 25.5% between fiscal 2022 and 2025, compared to 25% to 28% in our previous projection during the same year. Further, we maintain our fiscal 2021 operating margin of 18%, which is also higher than management guidance of 12.7% margin for the same year. We think this is possible, based on higher sales assumptions compared to guidance and after considering its high contribution margin of about 50%. We note that our assumption still implies operating margin of 5 percentage points lower compared to fiscal 2017 levels despite similar companywide revenue levels. We attribute this margin gap between 2017 and our 2021 projection to: 1) higher production-related costs, including increased expenses related to the operations of its new factories in Japan and North America as well as record D&A levels as a result of peak capital investments in 2018 and 2019; 2) increased R&D spending as part of its medium-term plan; and 3) near term rise in costs related to packaging and shipping.

For the current fiscal year, we assume 47% top-line year-on-year growth, which is higher than both guidance and our previous projection (40% and 37% year-on-year growth, respectively), as we expect stronger top-line recovery in Japan/Asia and Europe segments. We attribute this to order improvement in the fourth quarter, which exceeded our previous expectations, and likelihood of further increases in orders/sales throughout the fiscal year from industrial robot and collaborative robot, or cobot, manufacturers in these regions, as factory automation investments in the automobile industry pick up. Fourth-quarter consolidated orders in the Japan/Asia segment more than doubled year on year, and order growth in the Europe segment also turned positive in the fourth quarter with 12% year-on-year growth, after two consecutive declines from same periods of the previous year. We expect these factors will also contribute to margin expansion going forward.

The company’s fiscal 2020 year-end results, ending in March, were in line with our expectations, as companywide revenue remained flat year on year, while operating margin remained low at 2.3%–though this is an improvement from minus 0.5% in 2019. Margins have been impacted by high fixed costs from its newly constructed factories in Japan and North America, where HDS spent in excess of JPY 30 billion or 30% of sales collectively in 2018 and 2019. While the parent entity’s standalone operating margin improved by about 8 percentage points to 10.6%, from strong sales to Japanese industrial robot makers, other key group companies in North America and Europe realized declining operating income from lower sales for mainly non-industrial robot applications (such as for medical, amusement, and service robot industries).

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc Company Profile

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc., or HDS, manufactures and sells precision control equipment and components worldwide. It offers high-precision reduction gears (speed reducers) under the Harmonic Drive brand as well as other mechatronics products such as rotary actuators, linear actuators, and AC servo motors. The company also provides planetary-gear speed reducers under the Accu Drive and Harmonic Planetary brands. Its products are used in industrial robots, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and other high precision equipment. HDS was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Source: Morningstar

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“Can Lives Here” Is No Marketing Gimmick for Commonwealth Bank

Amber markets itself as a provider of cheap electricity, which Commonwealth Bank will promote to its mobile banking customers. Little Birdie will help the bank provide rewards and exclusive offers for Commonwealth Bank customers, probably a way of winning back share from the likes of Afterpay. The initiatives will not appeal to everyone, with these product enhancements likely appealing more to younger demographics who in the future become more profitable home loan customers. Generating annual profit north of AUD 8 billion, the bank has the luxury to: 1) invest in new and even unproven products; and 2) respond to consumer preferences.

It’s hard to say if recent investments will lead to material revenue windfalls, but we think the bank’s relatively small investments make sense as it attempts to build more engaged and satisfied customers. Our buy now, pay later analyst expects the market to grow materially over the next 10 years, but the incumbents will lose share, partly due to the major banks rolling out their own offerings. Commonwealth Bank shares are up over 50% in the last 12 months, and while we agree confidence in the earnings and dividend outlook is warranted, shares trade at a 30% premium to our fair value estimate. The fully franked dividend of AUD 4 per share, or 4% yield is likely attracting retail investors, but we caution against chasing shares for income. It is not hard to imagine the share price falling more than AUD 4 in a tough year, or even a month for that matter. Hopefully the earnings share price volatility of 2020 has not already been forgotten.

Commonwealth Bank’s consumer lending business, less than 2.5% of loans but we estimate around 8.5% of operating income, includes credit cards which are being impacted by growth in the buy now, pay later, or BNPL, sector. It’s not a surprise the bank is fighting back. It owns 5% of Klarna (50% of Klarna Australia), has the CBA BNPL offering, and a no-interest card called Neo.

Company Profile

Commonwealth Bank is Australia’s largest bank with operations spanning Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. Its core business is the provision of retail, business, and institutional banking services. An exit from wealth management is ongoing, with the bank still holding a 45% stake in Colonial First State. The bank has placed a greater emphasis on banking in recent years.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Digital Giants Finally Click Like Button on Nine’s News Content

Management projects the deals to propel an AUD 30 to 40 million EBITDA uplift in fiscal 2022 for the publishing unit. Some of this increase will likely be driven by continuing cost cuts and efficiency improvements. However, we believe the bulk of it is from the new content supply deals—juicy high margin arrangements which finally shift the image of the much-maligned and structurally-challenged division to one that can now much better monetise its (albeit still dwindling) journalistic resources.

Our fiscal 2021 earnings forecasts for Nine are largely intact. But we have increased our EBITDA estimates from fiscal 2022 by 6% on average, giving effect to the uplift from the new content supply agreements (up to three years with Facebook, five years with Google), as well as lifting the expected benefits from management’s relentless focus on costs in the publishing business. More specifically, from our fiscal 2021 publishing EBITDA forecast base of AUD 124 million, we now expect fiscal 2022 EBITDA to be AUD 158 million, up from AUD 120 million. Investors and, more importantly, the journalist community will be keenly watching how these digital platform deals change management’s resource and capital allocation to the publishing division in the future. Judging by the 26% premium that no-moat-rated Nine shares are trading at relative to our intrinsic assessment, it appears investors are betting the publishing unit will become an even bigger cash cow that Nine will milk, in order to fund its growth ambitions for the digital-centric units such as 9Now and Stan. On the other hand, competition is intensifying in the digital space, and we prefer to remain on the conservative side.

Company Profile

Nine Entertainment operates Nine Network, a free-to-air television network spread across five capital cities, as well as in regional Northern New South Wales and Darwin. It also owns Australia’s third-largest portfolio of online digital properties, one that reaches more than 60% of the country’s active online audience. The merger with Fairfax combines Nine’s top-ranked TV

network and the second-largest newspaper group, topped with a collection of quality digital assets in Nine Digital, subscription video on demand operator Stan, and Fairfax’s 59%-owned Domain. It ensures the merged entity remains relevant in the eyes of audiences and advertisers.

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Ramsay Health Care Ltd

Ramsay’s offer of GBP 2.40 per Spire share represents an enterprise value of GBP 2 billion or EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.9 on pre coronavirus fiscal 2019 earnings. Post-acquisition, our EPS for fiscal years 2023 to 2025 increases by an average of 11%, slightly ahead of the high-single-digit EPS accretion management guided for fiscal 2024. However, we still view the transaction price as fair, with shares still screening as overvalued.

We expect Spire’s revenue to grow at a low-single-digit percent and operating margin to largely be maintained at 10%. In addition, we factor in GBP 26 million in annualised cost synergies from fiscal 2024 through procurement benefits, capacity utilisation and a reduction in administrative costs. The scheme is first subject to a Spire shareholder vote expected in July 2021, followed by a likely 12-month review process by the U.K. Competition Market Authority, or CMA. Ramsay’s 8% market share combined with Spire’s 17% would create the largest independent hospital operator in the U.K., but at most we anticipate CMA may require Ramsay to divest certain hospitals or clinics. Accordingly, we forecast full integration and control in fiscal 2023 and full realization of synergies in fiscal 2024.

We view the acquisition as strategically sound, in addition to extending Ramsay’s geographic reach. Spire provides more exposure to private revenue streams and higher acuity inpatient admissions. This complements and balances Ramsay’s U.K. case mix, which is dominated by day patients and revenue sourced from the National Health Service. We anticipate Ramsay to fund the deal through existing debt facilities and still afford a 50% dividend payout ratio. However, Ramsay indicated potential capital management initiatives or asset sales to deleverage its balance sheet if needed.

Profile.

Ramsay Health Care is the fifth-largest global private hospital operator with approximately 480 locations in 11 countries. The key markets in which it operates are Australia, France, the U.K., Sweden and Norway. It is the largest private hospital group in each of these markets other than Norway where it is number two and the U.K. where it ranks fourth. Ramsay Health Care has a history of acquisitive growth, with the most recent acquisition being that of Stockholm-listed Capio AB in November 2018. 51%-owned Ramsay General de Sante is listed on Euro next Paris. Ramsay Health Care undertakes both private and publicly funded healthcare.

Source:Morningstar

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.