Category: Shares

Investment Thesis:

• Brambles serve as a market leader in its own segment, thereby making high barriers to entry for new participants. 
• Conversion of white-wood users as well as the palletisation of emerging markets would offer a huge opportunity.
• The share price of Brambles would be supported by on-going on-market share buyback.
• Management of cost margins amidst cost pressures through strategic business efficiencies
• Strong management team  
• Increase in volume in the US Pallet business and improving outlook for margin.   
• Prominent position of Brambles is ensured by its scale, existing customer base and balance sheet 

Key Risks:

• Margin erosion due to competitive pressures and inflation in prices, particularly in the North American market. 
• The operations of the company are intensively driven by capital. 
• Loss of large contracts may significantly reduce revenue and earnings.
• Lesser use of pallets may result from low consumption of FMCG products which may arise from weak economic conditions.
• Whitewood prices remain volatile.
• Large amount of currency and political risk exposure to the company. 
• Widespread lockdowns to be repeated in key regions.

Key Highlights:

• Level of support for the share price is offered by an attractive valuation of BXB and the current on-market shares buyback (currently ~74% of A$2.4bn complete). 
• Revenue of $5,209.8m was up 7% which was driven by 4% price growth and 3% volume. 
• The revenue by segment are; CHEP Asia Pacific contributed 10% to the total revenue, CHEP Americas contributed 50% and that contributed by CHEP EMEA is 40%. 
• Profit of $879.3m was up +8% driven by pricing, surcharge income, cost efficiencies and return on supply chain investments, partially offset by input-cost inflation, and other increases in costs driven by changes in network dynamics and demand patterns which are affected by both Covid-19 and Brexit. 
• Profit split by segment are as follows; CHEP Asia-Pacific contributes 15% to the total profit, CHEP Americas contributes 39% whereas HEP EMEA contributes 46%.
• Profit after tax from continuing operations of $535.0m, up 5% driven by operating profit growth partially offset by 15% uplift in tax costs
• Final dividend of US10.5cps has been declared, which brings total dividends to US20.5cps, equating to payout ratio of 54%, in line with pcp and consistent with BXB’s dividend policy (of between 45% to 60%). 
• Continued strong investment-grade credit ratings by agencies (Standard & Poor’s BBB+ and Moody’s Baa1).
• BXB’s financial ratios remain well within <2.0x financial policy and Net Debt / EBITDA is ~1.6x.

Company Profile:

Brambles Limited (ASX: BXB) is a supply-chain logistics company operating in more than 60 countries, primarily through the CHEP brands. Its headquarters are located in Sydney. Their largest operations are in North America and Western Europe. The company’s main segments are: pallets, reusable produce crate (RPCs) and containers. It provides services to customers in the fast-moving consumer goods industries space and also operates specialist container logistics businesses serving the automotive, aerospace, and oil and gas sectors. It employs more than 14,500 people and owns more than 550 million pallets, crates and containers through a network of more than 850 service centres.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Investment Thesis :

• Leading market positions with strategic locations in areas with strong population growth.
• Positively correlated with population growth throughout time.
• Increasing digitalization to save costs and improve the supply chain’s efficiency.
• For the core Australian Food segment, key leading indicators (such as basket size / goods per basket) are improving.
• Customer metrics and transaction growth are both improving. 
• The momentum of BIG W is expected to continue.
• Capital management post Endeavour deal.

Key Risks:

• The Food & Petrol business is seeing more margin pressure.
•  Changing consumer preferences and purchasing trends, as well as increased retail competition.
• Deterioration in balance sheet as a result of lower earnings.
• Unfavourable fluctuation in AUD/USD (international sourcing).

Key highlights of FY 2021: 

Following the demerger of Endeavour Drinks, Woolworths Ltd (WOW) posted solid FY21 results and a $2 billion off-market buy-back. Relative to pcp:

•  During the year Woolworth reported sales of $67,278 million were up 5.7 percent (online sales of $5,602 million were up 58.1 percent).
• The  revenue of Woolworth  is from following segment (1)  Australian Food (2) ) New Zealand Food (3) ) New Zealand Food (4)  Discontinued operations.
• In the year 2021 , 80%of  sales revenue of Woolworths (continuing operation )was from Australia amounting to $44,441m , 12% of sales revenue was from  new zealand zone amounting to $6,652,8% of revenue from BIG W amounting to $4,583 and  sales from discontinued operation “Endeavour Drinks” amounted $10167.
• During the year, the firms EBIT was $3,663m, up by 13.7% EBIT from continuing operations  was $2,764m, up by 11.1% driven by a 9% increase from Australian Food and an increase of over 300% from BIG W.
• Group EBIT margin was 5%, up by 28bps.
• Cost of doing business increased 16bps due to higher CODB in NZ and higher contribution from Big, which operates on a higher CODB.
• NPAT of $1,972m, up by 22.9%.
• The Board declared a final dividend of 55cps which brings FY21 dividend to 108cps, up by 14.9%. Shareholders on the record date of 3 September 2021 are eligible for the final dividend of $0.55

$2bn off-market buy-back: WOW announced $2bn capital return via an off-market buy-back. The Buy-Back will be handled through a tender process. . Eligible Shareholders who choose to participate can offer to sell some or all of their Shares to WOW at:  (1) a discount to the Market Price of 10% to 14% (inclusive) at 1% intervals; or (2) the Buy-Back Price established by WOW after the tender process is completed (as a Final Price Offer). (1) a discount to the Market Price of 10% to 14% (inclusive) at 1% intervals; or (2) the Buy-Back Price (1) a discount to the Market Price of 10% to 14% (inclusive) at 1% intervals; or (2) the Buy-Back Price, established by WOW. The Buy-Back Price will be determined as the lowest price at which WOW can buy back the targeted amount of capital.

The buyback period begins on September 13 and ends on October 15, 2021. On October 21, 2021, the Buy-Back Price will be paid to successful Eligible Shareholders.

Shareholders benefits from buyback: The Buy-Back Price paid for each share purchased back will be $4.31, with the remaining being a fully franked dividend. The Buy-Back Price may be lower than the price at which one might sell their shares on ASX, but  after-tax return may be greater because of personal tax status and the tax treatment of the Capital Component, dividend Component, and franking credits.

Company Profile:

Woolworths Limited (WOW) is an Australian retailer that operates supermarkets, speciality and discount department shops, as well as liquor and electronics stores. Woolworths also produces processed foods, exports and wholesales food, and sells gasoline. The corporation also owns and runs hotels that feature pubs, restaurants, lodging, and gambling.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Investment Thesis

• U.S. growth opportunity – the U.S. online sports betting market continues to open following the 2018 supreme court ruling which legalise the industry. Market growth estimates forecast the industry to grow to US$51bn by 2033.  
• Strong management team with a solid track record – the ability to grow market share in a competitive and mature market of Australia gives us some confidence the management team have the right strategy in place to build share in the U.S. 
• Proprietary technology stack – The speed and useability are key differentiating factors. PBH operates proprietary technology, which it developed inhouse. This means new modifications and updates are easier to implement (i.e., more control) with inhouse tech versus outsourced (i.e., having to go to an external provider each time with an update). 
• Cross sell opportunities with iGaming – PBH’s recently launched iGaming product (online casino) is already highlighting cross-sell opportunities to its customers.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

• Rising competitive pressures.
• Adverse regulatory change in key operating jurisdictions (Australia / U.S.). 
• Loss of market share in key regions or growth rate fails to meet market expectations. 
• Higher than expected costs – especially around investment in sales & marketing to drive market share. 
• Trading on high PE-multiples / valuations means the Company is more prone to share price volatility. 
• Cyber-attack on PBH’s platform. 

FY21 headline results. 

• PBH group revenue of $194.7m was up +159% YoY. 
• Gross profit of $87.6m was up +129% YoY. 
• PBH made heavy investment in sales and marketing over the year, with S&M expense of $170.7m significantly above the $38.2m in pcp. The Australian segment accounted for $51.4m (higher due to brand campaign with Shaquille O’Neal). However, the U.S. accounted for most of the uplift in marketing spend (total $119.2m) given the increased number of operating jurisdictions. As the footprint in the U.S. continues to expand, management noted the market spend will continue to increase. 
• At the end of the period, Australia has 196,585 cash active clients (vs. 90,422 in pcp) and the U.S had 159.321 cash active clients (vs 20,939 in pcp). 
• Group normalised EBITDA for the year was a loss of $156.1m vs loss of $37.6m in the pcp, as PBH continues to invest in the business to scale the U.S. business and invests in its technology stack.
• Australian Trading segment reported revenue of $150.7m (vs $68.2m in pcp) and EBITDA of $9.2m (vs $6.9m in the pcp). A solid result given the significant increase in marketing spend over the year. 
• USA segment reported revenue of $42.3m (vs $7.0m in pcp) and EBITDA loss of $149.6m (vs loss of $38.2m in pcp). During the year, PBH operational in six U.S. states: New Jersey, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. 
• Balance sheet is in a good position to support investment in growth, with pro forma cash balance of $665.2m (post the July 21 capital raising).

Company Description  

PointsBet Holdings Ltd (PBH), founded in 2015, is a corporate bookmaker with operations in Australia and the United States (New Jersey, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana). PointsBet has developed a scalable cloud-based wagering platform which offers customers sports and racing wagering products. PBH’s key products include fixed odds sports, fixed odds racing and PointsBetting.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Investment Thesis:

• Ongoing momentum in discretionary spending, fueled by rising property values.
• Diversified asset base with core assets continuing to grow.
• Expect improved performance from Target and Industrials business.
• Continued emphasis on shareholder return, including a high yield.
• A capable management team.
• A strong sense of balance allows to seize opportunities as they emerge.
• Potential  Capital management initiatives.

Key Risks:

• Due to competitive pressures, margins are eroding.
• Bunnings earnings have been disappointing.
• The macro picture is deteriorating, resulting in decreasing retail sales activity and volumes.
• Metrics on the balance sheet have deteriorated.
• Adverse movements in AUD/USD.

Key highlights of FY21: Relative to the pcp:

• During the year WES revenue rose by 10% to $33.9bn relative to previous year.
• During the year 2020, WES revenue from continuing operation arises broadly from the following segment : 62% from Bunnings,19 % from kmart group, 11% from WesCEF , 6%from Office work  and 2% from Industrial and safety.
• Bunnings delivered a 15% increase in revenue to $16,871m. Kmart Group revenue increased by 8.3% to $9,982m. Officeworks revenue increased by  8.7% to $3,029m . Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy &Fertilisers (WesCEF) revenue increased by 2.9% to $2,146m.  Industrial and Safety saw revenue increased by 6.3% to $1,855m
• NPAT from continuing operations increased by 16.2 % to $2.4 billion (excluding major items).
• Operating cash flows of $3,383m were 25.6% lower over pcp as strong earnings growth businesses was offset by the normalisation in working capital positions across the retail combined with gross capex of $896m (+3.3% higher over pcp) due to increased investment in data and digital initiatives across all divisions, the conversion of Target stores to Kmart stores, as well as the ongoing development of the Mt Holland lithium project .
• The company announced a $2.3 billion capital return in the form of a $2 per share payment on top of a final dividend of 90 cents per share, bringing the total payout for the year to $3.78 per share.
• The Board declared a fully franked final dividend of 90cps, taking the full-year dividend to 178cps (up by 17.1% over pcp) and recommended a return of capital of 200cps, equating to total shareholder return for the year of 378cps.
• The Company maintained significant balance sheet flexibility, ending the year with a net cash position of $109m.

Company Profile

Wesfarmers Limited (WES) operates convenience stores, home improvement stores, office supply stores, and department stores, among other businesses. Chemicals and fertilisers, industrial and safety items, and coal are all part of the industrial sector of the corporation. Wesfarmers has a workforce of about 220,000 workers.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Investment Thesis:

• Global re-open and vaccine roll-out acts as leverage for IDP Education.
• The company is expected to be benefitted from margin expansion (computer- based IELTS), network expansion (latest inclusion of IELTS test centres in Ireland, Poland, Chile and Peru and student placement offices in Pakistan and Canada).
• IDP’s English Language Testing stream (IELTS) has a strong reputation as the world’s most trusted English language test for study, work and migration.  
• Solid margin and strong earnings/revenue growth/strong cashflow generation is maintained by IDP.
• Strong management team.
• Growth opportunities at global level due to international student population and education industry. 
• Introduction and planned roll out of online IELTS delivery to provide opportunities for stronger growth.
• Strong balance sheet, with high liquidity. 
• Substantial margin opportunity is unlocked by potential restructuring with British Council  

Key Risks:

• Periodic growth cannot be predicted with IDP’s business model 
• Future economic lock-downs to Covid-19
• Risk of currency conversion
• In order to justify the valuations, high growth rate should be met  
• Threat of a new entrant or competition from the existing players

Key Highlights:

• FY21 Earnings were impacted by the pandemic, with adjusted EBIT of $71.8m, which was down by 31% over the pcp (previous corresponding period).
• IELTS volumes were up 5% despite ongoing disruptions at the operational level due to the on-going pandemic and government-imposed restrictions.
• The placement volumes of students to countries except Australia reduced by 12% relative to FY20 in spite of the uncertainties that were associated with travel and physical learning
• Digital Marketing revenue jumped 8% to $30m driven by institutional clients looking up to IDP’s global digital platform for marketing and data insights.
• Strategic acquisition in a growth market in British Council’s IELTS operation in India for £130m, which is highly strategic for IDP and provides several benefits like increased exposure to the high-growth Indian IELTS market; simplified distribution arrangements providing the opportunity to simplify and improve the delivery of IELTS to test takers in India.
• The highlights by segments are stated as below:

• English Language Testing: Revenue of $325.6m, which was up by 8%
• Student Placement: Revenue of $143.3, was 22% lower; for Australia, revenue was 34% weaker at $59.7m, due to border closures relating to Covid-19. For Multi-destination, revenue was -17% weaker at $83.5m.
• English Language Teaching: Revenue of $20.2m, which is -23% lower
• Digital Marketing and Events: Revenue of $36.4m, which is -2% lower
• Others: Revenue of $3.2m was -20% weaker

Company Profile:

IDP Education Ltd (IEL) offers: (i) Student placement: student recruitment/placement in 93 offices across 30 countries into  approximately 600 universities, schools and colleges globally in 5 destination countries; and (ii) co-owner of IELTS, an English language proficiency test which foreigners must pass in order to obtain certain visas and permanent residency in Australia. IEL is 50% owned by Education Australia Ltd – a business in which 38 Australian universities own a 50.1% stake.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Investment Thesis:

• Increased demand for health care services due to ageing population of Australia, thereby contributing increased dependence on private health care insurers. NHF offers exposure to the business model of providing a funding mechanism for the high-growth health care sector.
• Healthcare expenditure is expected to rise by 5-10% per annum, so government cannot offer healthcare services to people without increase in tax.
• The average premium rates increased at the rate of 5 – 6% per annum. 
• Policyholder growth and exposure to speed up the investments, NHF is expected to offer double-digit growth in medium term.
• Strong members in management.
• Chalking out budget plan, which improves the company’s expense ratio. 
• PHI (Protected Health Information) is promoted by giving incentives and benefits. 
• Joining with Tasly Holdings (Chinese Pharmaceutical Company) in Joint Venture and making international presence through the same.

Key Risks:

• Increase in competition among top 6 players
• Putting policy growth targets at risk 
• Marketing expenses are anticipated to go high, thereby straining earnings growth.
• Unexpected decline in policyholders in spite of providing incentives 
• Rapid increase in healthcare spending and health services demand from people have left Australian Government struggling.
• Registered health insurance firms are unable to increase premium rates without prior approval from the Government/Minister for Health/PHIAC/APRA. Because of this, NHF’s ROE and margins would be exposed to political process and pressures if the company makes large profits.
• Regulatory changes including tax incentives and benefits which encourage take up of PHI. 
• Due to poor insurance policy design, aging population, and costs of new medical equipment, procedures and treatments; lapse rates and claims inflation would be higher than expected.
• Negotiations not done rightly with healthcare providers (private hospital operators) which may result into unfavorable contractual terms;
• Investment returns might be lower than expected.

Key Highlights:

• nib holdings Ltd. (NHF) reported strong FY21 results in spite of Covid-19, however it was in line with management expectations
• Revenue grew by +2.9% to $2.6bn and Group operating profit (UOP) of $204.9m, which is up by 39.5%
• NPAT of $160.5m was mainly driven by net investment income of $51.8m.
• Statutory EPS of 35.2 cents, which was +82.4% higher.
• ROIC of 19.1% which was similar to pre-pandemic levels.
• Final dividend of 14cps fully franked (up from 4 cents), which brings the full year dividend to 24cps.

Company Profile:

nib Holdings Limited (NHF) is the Australian private health insurer. NHF operates in four divisions which are private health insurance, life insurance, travel insurance and related health care activities.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.