in our view. Industry shifts toward using mobile devices as computer supplements or replacements and fewer printing tasks being performed for economic and environmental reasons may create headwinds for HP. HP’s growth initiatives will expand its market share within the PC and printing industries as consolidation occurs, but we expect cost competitiveness among the remaining vendors to limit potential upside. HP’s personal systems business, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations yields a narrow operating margin that we do not foresee expanding.
The company’s growth focus areas of device-as-a-service, or DaaS, and expanding its gaming and premium product offerings should help stem losses from its core expertise of selling basic computer systems. HP’s contractual managed print services, in additional to focusing on graphics, A3, and 3D printers are moves in the correct direction, but the overarching trend of lower printing demand should stymie revenue growth within printing, in our view. HP is combatting the challenge of lower-cost generic ink and toner alternatives in the marketplace. The company is innovating in a mature market, but competitors can mimic HP’s successes or cause price disruption. HP’s scale may enable success within the 3D printing market; even though HP is late entrant, its movement into printing metals could cause customer adoption.
Financial Strength
Raising fair value estimate for no-moat HP Inc. to $27 from $25 after its 2021 analyst day provided fiscal 2022 earnings and free cash flow guidance that was higher. HP also confirmed its previously stated fiscal fourth-quarter guidance. HP’s commitment to returning at least 100% of free cash flow to investors through dividends and share repurchases. For fiscal 2021, HP’s dividend was increased by 29% year over year to $1 per share and modest increases in future years. HP will continue to rapidly repurchase shares, with over $8 billion authorized for buybacks remaining, which will help achieve HP’s stated earnings targets. For fiscal 2022, HP is targeting adjusted earnings of $4.07-$4.27 and at least $4.5 billion in free cash flow.
HP’s leverage to decrease as retained earnings increase and the company pays off debt on schedule. HP spends about 8%-9% of its revenue on SG&A and about 2%-3% of its revenue on R&D, the expenditure trends to remain consistent. HP has a solid track record of repurchasing shares, and the company will continue to invest in buybacks. Additionally, as part of thwarting Xerox’s 2020 takeover attempt, HP targeted $16 billion in shareholder returns, with the majority being share repurchases. At the end of fiscal 2020, the defined benefit plans and post-retirement plan were underfunded by $1.6 billion.
Bulls Say’s
- Expected challenges within the printing and PCs markets may be overstated. Enterprises adopting managed print services and Device-as-a-Service over hardware purchases could expand HP’s margins.
- HP’s innovation in notebooks and tablets could moderate concerns about a lengthening computer upgrade cycle. With an invigorated brand, HP is making inroads with premium and gaming PC buyers.
- Existing 3D and A3 vendors could be disrupted via HP’s scale. HP’s 3D materials open platform could make HP the preferred choice while offering A3 products opens up a $55 billion market.
Company Profile
HP Inc. is a leading provider of computers, printers, and printer supplies. The company’s three operating business segments are its personal systems, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations; and its printing segment which contains supplies, consumer hardware, and commercial hardware; and corporate investments. In 2015, Hewlett-Packard was separated into HP Inc. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale.
(Source: Morningstar)
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