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Dividend Stocks Shares

Costco’s Sales Growth Remains Strong Even as Comparisons Become Harder, but the Shares Seem Rich

Its 21% revenue growth impressed considering the chain lapped the early days of the pandemic (which included significant customer stock-up activity), but we mostly attribute the results to transitory factors. So, our long-term forecast still calls for mid-single-digit percentage sales growth and 3%-4% adjusted operating margins. We suggest investors seek a more attractive entry price, particularly considering elevated uncertainty as the customer habits normalize.

Costco posted 15% comparable growth excluding fuel and foreign exchange, well ahead of our 8% target, with the outperformance likely a result of greater-than-expected demand for discretionary items and recovering warehouse traffic (stimulus likely also played a role). Costco’s 3.7% operating margin was about 50 basis points higher than its prior-year mark and our estimate, reflecting cost leverage and reduced pandemic-related expenditures.

We are encouraged that around 70% of orders of big, bulky items (generally higher-value items like furniture, exercise equipment, and electronics) are being fulfilled by Costco Logistics, which the company purchased in early 2020. We believe the shift to in-house fulfilment will lift the profitability of orders of such goods as well as delivery times and customer service levels. We also believe these larger items remain an opportunity for Costco to benefit from rising e-commerce penetration, allowing for a broader assortment than what is available in-warehouse. While we continue to expect that the core of the value proposition will remain instore (as much of Costco’s assortment skews toward bulky, low-priced consumer goods that are difficult to ship economically), we support the company’s targeted investments in expanding its digital capabilities, which also include its growing online grocery offering.

Costco Wholesale Corp Company Profile

The leading warehouse club, Costco has 795 stores worldwide (at the end of fiscal 2020), with most sales derived in the United States (73%) and Canada (13%). It sells memberships that allow customers to shop in its warehouses, which feature low prices on a limited product assortment. Costco mainly caters to individual shoppers, but roughly 20% of paid members carry business memberships. Food and sundries accounted for 42% of fiscal 2020 sales, with hardlines 17%, ancillary businesses (such as fuel and pharmacy) nearly 17%, fresh food 14%, and softlines 10%. Costco’s warehouses average around 146,000 square feet; over 75% of its locations offer fuel. About 6% of Costco’s global sales come from e-commerce (excluding same-day grocery and various other services).

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Fixed Income Fixed Income

Fidelity® Emerging Markets Z FZEMX

He joined Fidelity in 2006 as an analyst, and then built strong track records at Fidelity Pacific Basin FPBFX from 2013 and Fidelity Emerging Asia FSEAX from 2017 until he became the successor to this fund’s previous manager in February 2019. Since taking over the following October, Dance has leaned on Fidelity’s deep emerging- markets analyst team for support, a strong group that continues to play a role here as Dance learns more about the emerging markets he didn’t invest in at his previous charges.

Dance, a successful regional strategy manager, still must show he can consistently apply his process to a broader universe. He’s a growth-oriented investor who buys four kinds of stocks–sustainable growers, niche companies, firms with macroeconomic tailwinds, and special situations–and holds them for three to five years.

Dance considers regional economics and macro views more than many of his peers, looking to accumulate exposure in regions or sectors in which he sees high growth potential. He turned defensive in February 2020 after learning of the coronavirus outbreak in China, selling expensive stocks like Brazilian investment manager XP while buying consumer staples stocks like Angel Yeast and healthcare stocks like Shenzhen Mindray.

The portfolio reflects Dance’s preferences. Its average holding has better profitability metrics and competitive advantages than those of its MSCI Emerging Markets Index benchmark and diversified emerging markets Morningstar Category. Such stocks often come at a cost: The portfolio’s average valuation measures like price/earnings, price/book value, price/sales, and price/cash flow are higher than those of its benchmark and typical peer. Despite some price risk, Dance has succeeded at his previous charges with this approach, so there’s reason for optimism.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Invesco Main Street Mid Cap Y OPMYX

Anello had been a lead manager of this fund since 2012 and had worked with Main Street team founder Mani Govil since 2006, but the fund had been a mediocre performer under his watch, so his departure was not really a shock. Now the fund’s sole lead manager is Belinda Cavazos, who was hired in February 2020 to manage this fund and Invesco Rising Dividends OARDX. She previously spent three years at Boston Trust managing small and mid-cap funds with some success. But this fund is much larger than any of her previous charges, and turning it around will be no easy task.

This fund is a mid-cap counterpart to Invesco Main Street MSIGX, which tries to identify profitable, well-run companies trading at reasonable valuations. Cavazos has not made any major changes to the process, but she has tried to put her own stamp on the fund, especially since Anello left. She reduced the portfolio’s exposure to some interest-rate-sensitive sectors, notably real estate and utilities, and added to some cyclical names such as Vulcan Materials VMC and homebuilder

D.R. Horton DHI. She also reduced the overweighting in energy that the fund typically had under Anello and sold some large-cap names that didn’t really fit with the fund’s mid-cap mandate. The effect has been to make the fund less reliant on sector bets and more driven by stock-picking. So far, the results haven’t been great. In 2020, the fund trailed about two thirds of its midcap blend Morningstar Category peers, similar to its performance over the past three, five, and 10 years. Results were similarly disappointing in the first five months of 2021. It is hard to come to any firm conclusions based on such a short time period, but Cavazos will definitely need to achieve better results than this before concluding that the fund is on the right track.

This fund’s strategy is straightforward in most respects. It is similar to the approach used by Invesco Main Street MSIGX, but less tested. It earns an Average Process rating. Lead manager Belinda Cavazos and her six co-managers employ a version of the strategy developed over the years by Main Street team leader Mani Govil. They seek companies with strong management teams and a fundamental catalyst for future value creation over the next two to five years, such as pricing power, market share gains, or improving profitability.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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IPO Watch

Marqeta’s $1.2 Billion IPO: What to Know

Financial technology companies in particular have garnered significant investor interest this year, perhaps pushing more startups to gopublic. Two other payments-related companies, Flywire FLYW and Paymentus PAY recently went to market. Flywire’s stock jumped about 46% and Paymentus’ went up about 36% on their first day of trading.

Marqeta has scaled quickly, fueled by the growth of financial technology, e-commerce, and the gig economy. But its future is anything but certain.

Marqeta’s clients include familiar tech names like Square SQ, AffirmAFRM, Uber UBER, DoorDash DASH, and Instacart. These companies use Marqeta’s platform to build payment experiences for their own customers or streamline business payments.

What’s Behind Marqeta’s Strong Revenue Growth

Most of Marqeta’s revenue comes from transaction fees, so processing volume is the name of the game. Marqeta has benefited from the accelerated shift to e-commerce and digital payments brought on by COVID-19. The company’s total processing volume reached roughly $60 billion in 2020, up from $21.7 billion the year before, according to the Marqeta’s SEC filing. The momentum has continued into 2021; Marqeta says its platform processed $24 billion in the first quarter.

With the boost in processing volume, Marqeta brought in $290.3 million in revenue in 2020, more than double its 2019 revenue.

While the past year has been sweet for Marqeta in terms of revenue growth, we have to look at the numbers with a grain of salt because they may not be indicative of the future. COVID-19 has impacted consumer spending patterns, boosting online purchases and demand for delivery services and contactless payments. While the need for virtual payment processing and card issuing may continue to trend upward, the dramatic shift seen during the pandemic will likely subside.

Despite the boost in revenue over the past year, Marqeta isn’t yet profitable. The company has shown a decline in net losses in recent years but still lost $47.7 million in 2020.

Marqeta expects to incur losses for the foreseeable future as the company continues to invest in its growth. Ultimately, the future is uncertain. And Marqeta acknowledges in its SEC filing that it may never achieve or sustain profitability.

Marqeta Has a Dependency Problem

Marqeta’s growth over the past year has mirrored the performance of its customers, particularly payments processing company Square, which generates most of Marqeta’s revenue. Square was responsible for 70% of Marqeta’s net revenue in 2020. That percentage rose to 73% for first-quarter 2021.

Square’s rapid growth during the pandemic has been a boon for Marqeta, but Morningstar senior equity analyst Brett Horn sees risk in customer concentration: “This tends to be mainly a growth issue, as customers have leverage to demand better pricing.”

The current term of Marqeta’s agreement with Square for Square Card expires in December 2024, and the current term of their agreement with Square for Cash App expires in March 2024. There is no guarantee that the relationship will continue on the same terms.

Losing revenue from Square, whether from Square’s poor performance or a severance of the relationship, would also have an adverse effect on Marqeta’s business.

Market Tailwinds Can Benefit Marqeta and Competitors

Horn and equity analyst Michael Miller believe there are significant opportunities for companies like Marqeta to draft off the secular trend toward electronic payments, which would act as a tailwind to card payment volumes. Euromonitor International, a market research firm, projects electronic payments will represent 46% of the total global transaction volume by 2025, up from 31% in 2017.

Horn sees competition between traditional players relying on scale and better pricing while newer upstarts like Marqeta try to win with services that better fit higher-growth areas. Industry growth creates room for new players, but Horn ultimately believes scale is the best form of long-term advantage in the space. This benefits existing players, like FIS and Fiserv, and gives them a window to replicate new offerings.

Miller said the rise of buy-now-pay-later offerings is another major trend in the card payments space. Such offerings allow consumers to pay for retail goods under an installment plan. “These firms are more prominent in Europe and Australia, but they’ve been investing heavily in the U.S. to gain market share,” Miller said. “That said, in my view, they have a difficult path to significant adoption in the U.S. since they don’t have a clear benefit over existing credit card products already available in the country.”

Marqeta already supports providers in this space, like Affirm and Klarna, and Marqeta’s global presence (the company is certified to operate in 36 countries) would allow it to take advantage of this growth outside of the United States.

Marqeta’s potential markets are growing and evolving, and it will have to grow and evolve with them. Profitability will take a back seat as the company pursues further growth and innovation.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares

Ralph Lauren Closes Fiscal 2021 on Positive Note

In the quarter, Ralph Lauren saw a constant-currency sales decline of just 4% in Europe (our forecast was negative 19%) as strong e-commerce growth (owned up 79%) overcame store closures. Its sales in Asia and North America were close to our estimates. While sales have continued to decline in North America because of reduced distribution and less off-price selling, we view this strategy as favourable for Ralph Lauren’s brand strength, the basis of our narrow moat rating. We project long-term growth of less than 1% for the company in the region but anticipate mid- to highsingle- digit percentage growth in Europe and Asia on store openings, e-commerce, and wholesale expansion. For fiscal 2022, Ralph Lauren projected overall sales growth of 20%-25%, in line with our previous forecast (adjusted for the impending sale of Club Monaco, which generated $210 million in sales in prepandemic fiscal 2020).

Ralph Lauren reported an adjusted gross margin of 62.9% in the quarter, 140 basis points above our forecast, due to strong pricing and mix. Our long-term forecast calls for sustainable 63% gross margins.

As has typically been the case, Ralph Lauren closed the fourth quarter in a net cash position, with long-term debt of $1.6 billion more than offset by $2.6 billion in cash (net cash of about $13 per share). The firm will also receive cash soon (undisclosed terms) from the sale of Club Monaco, which it bought for about $52 million in 1999. Given its strong balance sheet, Ralph Lauren has reinstated its quarterly dividend of $0.6875 per share, as we had anticipated. We forecast its long-term dividend payout ratio at about 50%. We forecast limited buybacks in fiscal 2022 (just over $100 million) but increasing share repurchases in subsequent years. Our capital allocation rating is Standard.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares

Teladoc Health Inc – Growth Opportunities Remain Strong

However, we see intensifying competition (record venture capital funding, peer consolidation, and even Amazon), as barriers to entry are relatively low. While achieving a moat through scale on its own is difficult in an industry that could be described as commoditized, Teladoc can distinguish its offerings through its breadth of services. Following its Livongo and InTouch acquisitions in 2020, Teladoc has expanded its offering beyond virtual ambulatory and expert visits to include chronic care management and telehealth solutions for hospital systems.

We are lowering our fair value estimate to $210 per share from $225 due to adjustments in our assumptions for longterm operating margins following the company’s first full quarterly results integrating Livongo’s operations. However, Teladoc shares trade at over a 30% discount to our fair value estimate, as they have declined from their price ceiling of $292 in February. We attribute the decline to an unwinding of pandemic bets as vaccines have rolled out and a full reopening appears increasingly likely. However, we see market pessimism around Teladoc as overexaggerated and believe the bigger picture is being lost. Teladoc’s primary sales channel is business to business, as a vendor to selffunded employers and other payers. Even if overall telehealth utilization declines as the country opens up, we believe it’s highly unlikely that membership will fall, as telehealth services are becoming more of a staple in benefits, like vision or dental coverage. In a postpandemic world, telehealth still provides value to payers by potentially reducing the need for costly hospital visits and providing convenience to members.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Expert Insights Shares Small Cap

Canopy Offers Attractive Investment Exposure to the U.S

Portrait of Vietnamese young stock broker talking on the phone with coworker

Although we expect the medical market to shrink as consumers turn to the recreational market, we forecast more than 10% average annual growth for the entire Canadian market through 2030, driven by the conversion of black-market consumers into the legal market and new cannabis consumers.

Canopy also exports medical cannabis globally. The global market looks lucrative, given higher prices and growing acceptance of cannabis’ medical benefits. Exporters must pass strict regulations to enter markets, protecting early entrants like Canopy. Partially offsetting the global markets’ potential for Canadian producers are threats of future production from countries with cheaper labor— the single largest cost. However, many Canadian companies have pulled back expansion plans given ongoing cash burn. We forecast around 15% average annual growth through 2030.

Besides hemp, Canadian companies typically have no U.S. operations, given legal limitations. However, Canopy has a standing deal to acquire Acreage Holdings, a U.S. multistate operator, immediately upon federal legalization. We thought Canopy paid a good price and acquired an attractive option for an accelerated entry into the U.S. Canopy also owns 27% of U.S. multistate operator Terrascend on a fully diluted basis. The U.S. market is murky, with some states legalizing recreational or medical cannabis while it remains illegal federally. We expect that federal law will be changed to recognize states’ choices on legality within their borders. Based on our state-by-state analysis, we forecast nearly 20% average annual growth for the U.S. recreational market and nearly 10% for the medical market through 2030.

Constellation Brands owns 38.6% of Canopy with additional securities that could push ownership to 55.8%. We see the investment as supportive of developing branded cannabis consumer products while also providing a funding backstop and foothold into the U.S. non-THC market.

Company Profile

Canopy Growth, headquartered in Smiths Falls, Canada, cultivates and sells medicinal and recreational cannabis, and hemp, through a portfolio of brands that include Tweed, Spectrum Therapeutics, and CraftGrow. Although it primarily operates in Canada, Canopy has distribution and production licenses in more than a dozen countries to drive expansion in global medical cannabis and also holds an option to acquire Acreage Holdings upon U.S. federal cannabis legalization.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.               

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Funds Funds

Devon Alpha Fund

This is the fourth portfolio manager change on this strategy in four years. In early

2019, Devon announced it was changing the portfolio manager to Mark Brown from Nick Dravitzki. Prior to taking the portfolio manager role, Brown had been the chief investment officer at Devon. Dravitzki had been the portfolio manager on this strategy since 2017 following previous portfolio manager Robertson’s ascension to the key business management role. This level of portfolio manager change on a strategy that allows significant flexibility for the key decision-maker rarely leads to good outcomes in the short to medium term, even with an experienced team.

The investment process seeks to identify companies in the NZX 50 and S&P/ASX 200 indexes that have the ability to generate strong returns on invested capital and achieve good cash flow expansion or have unappreciated catalysts for revaluation. The strategy allows for a portfolio of just 10-15 stocks, so the fund carries significant stock- and sector-specific risk, which may result in greater volatility than more-traditional strategies. In addition, the portfolio manager has a high level of discretion and can allocate 0-100% to New Zealand stocks, 0-100% to Australian stocks, or 0-100% to cash. Historically, cash levels have often been in the 20%-30% range but have been lower since mid-2020. The portfolio manager also has the flexibility to short-sell stocks (though we’ve rarely seen it used) and invests outside Australasia.

Since inception, the strategy’s returns have been largely lacklustre, which is not entirely unexpected given the difficulty in getting cash levels right and the portfolio manager changes.

Devon Alpha has some interesting characteristics, but the numerous portfolio manager changes constrain our enthusiasm.

Devon seeks to identify Australasian companies with the ability to produce strong returns on invested capital. Devon generates investment ideas through its fundamental research process and draws on its members’ extensive experience. On-the-ground research is an important part of the process; the team will not only visit management of companies in the portfolio and potential holdings, but also competitors, suppliers, and customers. Discounted cash flow is the most important factor in the valuation decision, ensuring the team avoids overpaying for companies. The investment decision also considers the strength of the business model, the relative attractiveness of the industry, quality of management, and the company’s financial health. These factors are assigned weightings that the portfolio manager uses in his portfolio construction process.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Devon Dividend Yield Fund

However, Nick Dravitzki, who had been portfolio manager on this strategy since it was launched in 2012, resigned in early June 2020. Devon’s experienced chief investment officer, Mark Brown is now portfolio manager here. He is assisted by the investment team, which includes managing director Slade Robertson, three portfolio managers, and two senior equities analysts.

The investment team is tight-knit and possesses valuable experience, but in recent years the good quality research and portfolio construction we had come to expect from Devon has marginally declined relative to peers. In addition, a change of portfolio manager, in the short term, can be unsettling for an investment team and strategy. However, Robertson has restructured and reinvigorated the team by hiring two additional analysts and increasing his mentoring of the investment committee. The investment process is straightforward, with an emphasis on fundamental bottom up research. The team invests in companies based on their gross yield to a New Zealand investor and the sustainability of that yield. The 20-25 stock portfolios is high-conviction and therefore carries significant stock- and sector-specific risk, which may result in greater volatility than peers.

Utilities, listed property, and financial services companies typically take up 45%-50% of FUM.

However, there are no restrictions on the amount invested in Australian and New Zealand companies, providing the portfolio manager with significant flexibility to allocate capital where he sees opportunities. Since inception, the strategy has experienced mixed performance. The process worked well up until late 2016, but since early 2017 the strategy has struggled against the index and equity region Australasia Morningstar Category peers. The process behind Devon Equity Income is reasonable, but our conviction is stronger with peers at this time.

Devon Dividend Yield aims to provide investors with a stream of income by constructing a concentrated portfolio of New Zealand and Australian companies, with a 2% blended yield improvement compared with the market. Devon screens the S&P/NZX 50 and S&P/ASX 200 indexes and ranks stocks by their gross dividend yields to a New Zealand investor. Valuation of top-ranked stocks is determined using a discounted cash flow methodology. Devon will go the extra mile to obtain an understanding of the intrinsic value of a business. Fortunately, a healthy travel budget accommodates this, whether for company visitation or investment conferences.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.               

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Funds Funds

Devon Trans-Tasman Fund

Willis and Robertson are supported by the Devon investment team of Chris Glaskin (portfolio manager), Mark Brown (portfolio manager/ chief investment officer), Victoria Harris (sustainability portfolio manager), and two investment analysts. The investment team is tight-knit and possesses valuable experience and knowledge. In addition, Willis undertakes considerable company visits and management meetings in New Zealand and Australia. However, during the past few years, there have been some missteps in stock selection and portfolio construction that have prevented the fund from outperforming its index and peers. Issues have included limited exposure to some of the largest and best-performing New Zealand stocks. We believe the good quality research and portfolio construction we had come to expect from Devon had declined relative to peers. However, during 2020, the highly experienced Slade Robertson restructured and reinvigorated the team by hiring a sustainability portfolio manager and two additional analysts; he also became co-portfolio manager of this strategy. Robertson had been portfolio manager of the fund up until 2015.

The process is straightforward and repeatable, with an emphasis on fundamental bottom-up research. The team searches for companies with sustainable earnings, high return on capital, good cash conversion, and low capital expenditure. A benchmark-agnostic high-conviction approach is adopted when constructing the growth-orientated portfolio of 25-35 stocks, which often contains mid- to small-cap companies. Despite recent solid performance, on a trailing returns basis, the strategy has fallen behind equity region Australasia Morningstar Category peers the category index (50% S&P/NZX 50 Index and 50% S&P/ASX 200 Index) over the trailing three and five years to 30 April 2021.

Devon seeks to identify Australasian companies with the ability to produce strong returns on invested capital. Devon generates investment ideas through its fundamental research process and draws on its team members’ extensive experience. The team travels extensively to obtain an understanding of businesses and to determine the intrinsic value of companies. A healthy travel budget accommodates this, whether it is for company visitation, investment conferences, or idea generation.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.