The trailing three-year revenue CAGR for homecare hardware has been an impressive 18% despite subdued new sleep apnoea diagnosis rates due to the pandemic. stronger growth in the near term due to Fisher’s recent mask launches and sleeping labs reopening, and growing clinical evidence supporting nasal high flow, or NHF, therapy for homecare COPD treatment to be a structural long-term tailwind.
COVID-19 hospitalisation rates in North America and Europe have come down substantially, with the two regions contributing 74% of fiscal 2021 revenue. We still foresee a significant drop as strong COVID-19-induced sales fade away, and we maintain our fiscal 2022 revenue prediction of NZD 1.6 billion. Widespread adoption depends on growing clinical evidence to support its use for different applications and generally involves direct marketing at each hospital. Our long-run revenue growth forecast for new applications consumables is broadly unchanged, increasing to 16% from 15% previously. Our midcycle group revenue growth and operating margin forecasts of 12% and 32%, respectively, are largely consistent with Fisher’s targets of 12% and 30%, respectively.
Fisher’s proprietary technology
Fisher’s intangible assets and switching costs evident in the hospital division will deliver sustainable excess returns. Fisher’s proprietary technology and patent portfolio have helped maintain its dominant market share and leading product innovation, particularly in NHF therapy. Fisher’s balance sheet is in sound condition and has low financial risk given low revenue cyclicality and a high contribution from consumables revenue.
Fisher has sustainably generated a ROIC at or above 22% though solid reinvestment in R&D and lower-cost manufacturing, and we forecast ROICs on average to continue at the current rate. Potential patent infringement and litigation costs is another potential ESG risk. For instance, Fisher was in patent infringement disputes with ResMed recently and ultimately resulted in NZD 60 million in litigation costs and was settled out of court.
Company Profile
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is one of the three largest respiratory care device companies globally. It is the market leader in hospital use humidifiers, masks and related consumables and the number three player in the at-home treatment of sleep apnoea using respiratory devices. Both the hospital and homecare markets for respiratory devices are growing strongly in the developed markets in which Fisher & Paykel has a presence. The company earns 42% of its revenue in the U.S., 32% in Europe, 18% in Asia-Pacific and the remaining 8% in emerging markets. Fisher conducts its own R&D and has thousands of patents and pending applications. It manufactures in New Zealand and Mexico and has a multi-channel distribution model.
(Source: Morningstar)
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