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Global stocks Shares

Applied Materials Inc poised for Remarkable Growth in Fiscal 2021

 It has been observed that Applied Materials and its peers have all called for strong growth in 2021, driven by record capital expenditure levels at TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and Intel as well as solid memory spending.

Third-quarter sales rose 41% year over year to $6.2 billion, led by a 53% increase in the semiconductor systems group (SSG) revenue. Within SSG, equipment sales to logic and foundry customers grew 75% year over year. This strength has been attributed to investments supporting leading-edge process technologies at the likes of TSMC as well as lagging-edge processes that support end markets such as automotive and Internet of Things. Memory equipment sales also grew 26% year over year. Foundry and logic are expected to be the biggest growth drivers for Applied’s SSG sales in 2021.

Financial Strength:

The last price for Applied Materials Inc. was USD 129.20, whereas its fair value has been estimated to be USD 131. Besides, PE ratio of Applied during 2020 was 14.2, making it undervalued with reference to its sector. This suggests that there is room for growth of the Applied Materials Inc. 

Management expects Applied’s fourth-quarter revenue to be up by 34% year over year at the midpoint, with momentum persisting into 2022. Also, the sales of Applied are expected to be $6.3 billion at the midpoint, with SSG at $4.6 billion, services at $1.3 billion, and display at $400 million.

Quarterly services revenue was nearly $1.3 billion and was up 24% year over year. In recent years, services and part sales from long-term service agreements have grown from 40% to 87% of total service revenue. 

Company Profile:

Applied Materials is one of the world’s largest suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, providing materials engineering solutions to help make nearly every chip in the world. The firm’s systems are used in nearly every major process step with the exception of lithography. Key tools include those for chemical and physical vapor deposition, etching, chemical mechanical polishing, wafer- and reticle-inspection, critical dimension measurement, and defect-inspection scanning electron microscopes.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Steadfast Puts a Strong Shareprice to Work; Recommend Passing on This SPP

Insurers putting up rates to improve their own margins provides a nice tailwind for the resilient insurance broking industry. Steadfast will pay AUD 411.5 million for Coverforce, an EBITA multiple of 11 times after cost synergies. While the multiple is higher than the 9-10 times often paid for broker businesses, given Steadfast is funding the purchase with expensive shares, the deal is still attractive. Coverforce is the largest privately owned broker business in the network, overseeing AUD 530 million of GWP in fiscal 2021. Losing this group would not have been a good look for Steadfast.

The acquisition is straight from the playbook that has served Steadfast well. Owners often look to sell all or part of their broking business to release equity or as part of a succession plan. A share purchase plan to raise an additional AUD 20 million will also be offered. The SPP price will be set at the lower of the institutional placement price or 1% discount to the VWAP of Steadfast shares over the five trading days to September 13, 2021. Around 60% of Steadfast’s EBITA growth was organic, both volume and price increases. The remainder, from acquisitions and increased equity holdings in brokers within its network. The growth strategy reinforces the businesses competitive advantages and strengthens customer switching costs.

With insurers generating poor returns on capital, we expect premium rate increases to continue at around 5% per annum in fiscal 2022, but moderate to 2-3% per annum longer-term. The acquisition of Coverforce lifts Steadfast’s equity ownership in brokers within the network to 37% from 32%, leaving a long tail of investment opportunities over the long-term. Our forecasts assume annual NPAT growth of 14% per annum over the five-years to fiscal 2026.

Steadfast’s Future Outlook 

Our forecast sits above the range, with NPAT of AUD 174 million. We think management guidance is conservative given the price increases insurers are pushing to improve their own returns. We increase our fair value estimate 8% to AUD 4.00 per share as we incorporate the acquisition of Coverforce. We assume a 12% increase in shares on issue to fund the acquisition. We think the acquisition is likely to be a success. We do not recommend participating in the share purchase plan given the issue price is set at a floor of AUD 4.35 per share, a 9% premium to our fair value estimate. Steadfast is a good business, but expensive.

Back on the result, one aspect that missed our expectations was GWP on the Steadfast Client Trading Platform, or SCTP. Premiums on the platform increased 24% in fiscal 2021, but still make up less than 8% of broker GWP. Being more profitable for Steadfast, success here will provide an additional tailwind to earnings. e assume around 40% of GWP is written on the platform by fiscal 2026, down from our prior forecast of 50%, as it is taking longer than expected for insurers to integrate products onto the new platform.

Company Profile 

Steadfast Group is the largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand, with over 450 brokers and 2,000 offices in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and London. Steadfast operates as both a broker and a consolidator via equity interests in insurance broker businesses, generating close to AUD 10 billion of network broker gross written premium annually. Steadfast also co-owns and consolidates underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Global stocks Shares

Berkshire’s Equities in Q2; Apple Remains Top Stock

selling some $2.1 billion worth of stock while also acquiring a little over $1 billion of equities. Based on the insurer’s recent 13- F filing, Berkshire trimmed positions in US Bancorp and Chevron, and sold off more than 10% of the investment portfolio’s stakes in Abbvie (selling 2.3 million shares or 10.2% of its holdings), General Motors (7.0 million shares or 10.4% of its holdings), Bristol-Myers Squibb (4.7 million shares or 15.3% of its holdings), and Marsh & McLennan (1.1 million shares or 20.6% of its holdings). Berkshire also disposed of meaningful amounts of Merck (8.7 million shares, or 48.8% of its holdings) and Liberty Global Cl C shares (5.5 million shares, or 74.5% of its holdings), while completely eliminating the firm’s holdings in Liberty Global Cl A, Biogen, and Axalta Coating Systems.

As for the purchases, almost all of them involved existing holdings as Berkshire added to stakes in Kroger (picking up 10.7 million shares and increasing its position by 21.0%), Aon (around 300,000 shares and increasing its position by 7.3%), and Restoration Hardware (35,500 shares for a 2.0% increase in the company’s holdings). Berkshire had originated stakes in the pharmaceuticals–AbbVie, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck–as well as the insurance brokers—Marsh & McLennan and Aon–in just the past year and a half, but many of these stocks have seen marked gains in just the past few quarters, allowing the insurer’s main managers of many of these smaller holdings (relative to the portfolio overall)–CEO Warren Buffett’s two lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler–to take some profit off the table. Even so, the firm ended the second quarter with $293.0 billion of reportable equity holdings.

Berkshire’s top 5 positions of Apple (41.5%), Bank of America (14.2%), American Express (8.6%),Coca-Cola (7.4%), and Kraft Heinz (4.5%), accounted for 76.2% of the insurer’s 13-F equity portfolio, and its top 10 holdings, which included Moody’s (3.1%), Verizon Communications (3.0%), US Bancorp (2.5%), DaVita (1.5%), and Charter Communications (1.3%), accounted for 87.5%. Given the changes in Berkshire’s 13-F portfolio during the second quarter, the financial services sector now accounts for 28.7% of the portfolio (up from 28.5% at the end of March 2021), with technology stocks at 43.2% (up from 41.8%), and consumer defensive names decreasing to 12.8% (from 13.3%).

Company Profile 

Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company with a wide array of subsidiaries engaged in diverse activities. The firm’s core business segment is insurance, run primarily through Geico, Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group and Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group. Berkshire has used the excess cash thrown off from these and its other operations over the years to acquire Burlington Northern Santa Fe (railroad), Berkshire Hathaway Energy (utilities and energy distributors), and the firms that make up its manufacturing, service, and retailing operations (which include five of Berkshire’s largest noninsurance pretax earnings generators: Precision Castparts, Lubrizol, Clayton Homes, Marmon and IMC/ISCAR). The conglomerate is unique in that it is run on a completely decentralized basis. 

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

SBI Mutual Fund has launched Balanced Advantage Fund

The SBI balanced Advantage fund’s investment objective is to deliver long-term capital appreciation and income through a dynamic mix of equity and debt investments. The CRISIL Hybrid 50+50 – Moderate Index TRI would be tracked by SBI Balanced Advantage Fund.

The Balanced Advantage Fund would invest in equities and fixed income securities based on a number of factors, including valuations, earnings drivers, and sentiment indicators.

The SBI Balanced Advantage fund will work in the following manner

  1. Asset Allocation: The Fund Manager will decide on the asset allocation between equity and debt based on a variety of factors including sentiment indicators, valuations, and earning drivers.
  1. Quantitative Framework: Our investment strategy is based on a quantitative framework that determines how we invest based on market capitalization, investing style (value, growth, or quality) and sector preference.
  1. Stock/Security Selection: The equity portfolios are managed under the discretion of fund managers and portfolios are based on the analyst team’s high conviction views and the discretion of the Fund Manager. There is duration management to generate alpha across the yield curve. The portfolio is built in such a way that alpha is generated through equity while stability is sought through debt.

The scheme would invest in equities and equity-related products for a minimum of 0% and up to a maximum of 100% and the risk profile for the same would be high. It will also invest in debt securities (including securitized debt) and money market instruments, with a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 100% and the risk profile for the same would be low to medium and 0% to 10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs –the risk profile for the same is medium to high  

During the NFO period, the minimum application amount is Rs 5,000, with subsequent amounts in multiples of Rs 1. Dinesh Balachandran and Gaurav Mehta will handle the equity element of the SBI Balanced Advantage Fund, Dinesh Ahuja will manage the debt portion and Mohit Jain will manage the international investments.

The SBI Balanced mutual fund is suited for the following investor:

  • Investors looking for long-term Wealth Creation 
  • Investors looking for a Dynamic solution for the right mix of Debt & Equity
  •  Risk-averse Equity Investors with minimum 3 years+ of Investment Horizon

 (Source: www.sbimf.com)

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IPO Watch

Strong Market Debut of Devyani International at 57% premium over issue price

At the issue price, the company commanded a market capitalisation of Rs 10,823 crore and was valued at an EV/ EBITDA of 62.39.

It was subscribed 116.71 times, with qualified institutional buyer (QIB) category being subscribed 95.27 times, non-institutional investors 213.06 times, and retail individual investors 39.51 times. 

On 16th August 2021, Monday, the shares of Devyani International got listed on BSE at Rs. 141 at 56.66 per cent premium and on NSE, it got debuted at Rs. 140.90, up by 56.55 per cent.

In FY21, Devyani’s business from the core brands (India & Internationally) contributed 94.19 per cent to its revenues from operations. Delivery sales represented 70.20 per cent of revenues in FY21 in comparison to 51.15 per cent in FY20.

The company opened 40-50 stores across its brands in the last 2-3 quarters and expects to sustain this momentum. It also opened 43 stores in June quarter and 109 stores across core brands in the second half of FY21.

Company Profile

Devyani International is an associate company of RJ Corp, which is the largest bottling partner of food and beverages (F&B) major PepsiCo. It has interests in the Indian retail F&B sector. The company is the largest franchisee of Yum Brands, operating core brands such as Pizza Hut, KFC, Costa Coffee. The company operates 284 KFC stores, 317 Pizza Hut stores, and 44 Costa Coffee stores in India as of June 30, 2021. The company also owns brands such as Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli and Ckrussh Juice Bar and has operations in Nigeria and Nepal.

(Source: Economic Times, Financial Express)

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Global stocks Shares

Post Plans Reduce its Stake in BellRing Brands as It Emerges from the Pandemic

As the cereal category has come under pressure, the firm diversified its revenue base by entering categories that were driving the legacy business’ deterioration, such as eggs and protein-based nutritional products. While these actions have stabilized the top line, it is believed a competitive edge remains elusive.

The cereal business (42% of fiscal 2020 revenue) has been declining (outside of the pandemic) as consumers have shifted away from processed, high-sugar, high-carbohydrate fare. Post’s cereal business is very profitable, with EBITDA margins around mid-20% and low-30% for the U.S. and European businesses, respectively. The refrigerated segments (41%, with 24% food service and 17% retail) consist primarily of egg and potato products. As a result, this business is relatively low margin (10%-12%) and does not offer the firm a competitive advantage, in our view. While 2020 was challenging for food service, the segment should recover in 2021 with the dissemination of vaccines.

Post holds a majority stake in BellRing Brands (17%), which makes protein shakes, bars, and powders. The business has realized low-double-digit growth and attractive operating margins (17%-18%). Post recently announced plans to reduce its stake in BellRing from 71% to no more than 20% in the first half of calendar 2022, which will undoubtedly result in slower sales growth for Post. 

Financial Strength

Post has a unique capital allocation strategy, preferring to carry a heavier debt load than most packaged food peers. Post’s legacy domestic cereal business generates significant free cash flow (about 12% of revenue, above the 10% peer average), although after acquiring the refrigerated foods, BellRing, and private brands businesses, this metric fell to just over a 6% average between 2013 and 2018. Post has no intention to initiate a dividend. It is increasing FVE for Post to $114 per share from $110 to account for better than expected third-quarter sales, partially offset by a higher U.S. tax rate beginning in 2022. The company’s valuation implies a 2022 price/adjusted earnings of 21 times.

Bull Says

  • Post’s Premier Protein brand is well positioned in the protein shake category, an attractive, high-growth market with outsize margins.
  • The refrigerated foods segment, nearly half of Post’s business, is benefiting from consumers’ evolving preference for fresh, unprocessed high-protein eggs, and fresh and convenient side dish options.
  • Although growth in the cereal business has been stagnant, it reports attractive profits and cash flows and has a lucrative opportunity with Premier Protein co-branded cereal

Company Profile

Post Holdings Inc (NYSE: POST) is a packaged food company that primarily operates in North America and Europe. For fiscal 2020, 42% of the company’s revenue came from cereal, with brands such as Honeycomb, Grape-Nuts, Shredded Wheat, Pebbles, Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, Weetabix, and Alpen. Refrigerated food made up 41% of 2020 revenue and services the retail (17% of company sales) and food-service channels (24%), providing value-added egg and potato products, prepared side dishes, cheese, and sausage under brands Bob Evans and Simply Potatoes. The stake in BellRing Brands makes up the remaining 17% of revenue, with protein-based shakes, powders, and bars that sell under the Premier Protein, Power Bar, and Dymatize brands, but Post is reducing this holding to a minority position in calendar 2022.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Shares Technology Stocks

Mirvac Group Ltd (ASX: MGR) Updates

  • High quality portfolio composition with stronger weighting towards Melbourne and Sydney urban areas minimizing risk from submarket weakness from Brisbane. 
  • MGR has secured 90% of expected Residential EBIT for FY22.
  • Strong pipeline of residential projects to come, delivering earnings growth by FY22. 
  • Solid balance sheet. Gearing at 22.8% (at lower end of target range of 20%-30%).
  • Continuing recovery in weak retail sales especially for supermarkets.
  • Strong management team.

Key Risks

  • Deterioration in property fundamentals for Office, Industrial and Retail portfolio, such as delays with developments or lower than expected rental growth causing downward asset revaluations.
  • Tenant defaults as the economic landscape changes (increasingly competitive retail sector especially from online retailers such as Amazon). For instance, retailer bankruptcies causing rising vacancies in the retail portfolio.
  • Generally softening outlook on the broader retail market. 
  • Residential settlement risk and defaults. 
  • Higher interest rates impacting debt margins. 
  • Consumer sentiment towards impact of higher interest rates and effect on retail and residential businesses. 

FY21 Results Summary

Operating profit of $550m was down -9% over pcp and operating EBIT of $704m declined -12% over pcp, negatively impacted by lower development profit and higher unallocated overheads, partially offset by growth in NOI (especially growth in Integrated Investment Portfolio NOI following newly completed office asset developments).However, statutory profit was up +61% to $901m and EPS of 14cpss exceeded management’s earnings guidance of greater than 13.7cpss. 

AFFO declined -23% over PCP, reflecting the lower operating earnings together with increased tenant incentives and normalization of maintenance capex. Total distribution was $390m, representing a DPS of 9.9cpss, an increase of +9%, funded from operating cash flows which increased +41% over pcp to $635m, driven by final fund through receipts following capitalization of Older fleet, lower development spend and stronger cash collection from the investment portfolio. Net tangible assets (NTA) per stapled security increased +5% over PCP to $2.67.

The Company extended its development pipeline, ending the year with $28bn across mixed use, office, industrial, residential and build to rent. Balance sheet remained strong with cash and undrawn debt facilities of $867m, investment grade credit ratings of A3/A- by Moody’s/Fitch, gearing of 22.8% (lower end of target range of 20-30%). The Company saw cost of debt decline -60bps over PCP to 3.4%, with management expecting further reduction in FY22.

Company Description  

Mirvac Group Ltd (ASX: MGR) is a real estate investment and development company. The company operates in Residential and Commercial & Mixed Use space within the real Estate sector. Mirvac Group Ltd is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

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IPO Watch

Sapphire Foods IPO: Another KFC, Pizza Hut operator files draft papers with SEBI to raise funds

Sapphire Foods’ initial public offering (IPO) consists of 1,75,69,941 equity shares and is a full offer for sale by shareholders. QSR Management Trust (QMT) owns 8.5 lakh equity shares, Sapphire Foods Mauritius owns 55,69,533 equity shares, and WWD RUBY owns 48,46,706 equity shares, Amethyst has 39,61,737 equity shares, AAJV Investment Trust has 80,169 equity shares, Edelweiss Crossover Opportunities Fund has 16,15,569 equity shares, and Edelweiss Crossover Opportunities Fund – Series II has 6,46,227 equity shares.

Sapphire Foods’ potential IPO was initially reported by Moneycontrol on December 17. Sapphire Foods, which is backed by Samara Capital, raised Rs 1,150 crore from private equity investors Creador, NewQuest Capital Partners, and TR Capital earlier this week. As of March 2021, Sapphire Foods runs 437 restaurants in India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives under the KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell brands. Investors such as Samara Capital affiliates, Goldman Sachs, CX Partners, Creador, and Edelweiss are backing an omnichannel restaurant operator.

Due to the increased demand for delivery and takeaway services as a result of the Covid-19 outbreak, and depending on market dynamics and adjacent catchments, the company is contemplating smaller formats for new restaurants in order to cut down on one of the company’s biggest expenses – rent. 

Colonel Harland D Sanders started KFC in Corbin, Kentucky, in 1939; the first Pizza Hut restaurant opened in Wichita, Kansas, in 1958; and the first Taco Bell restaurant opened in Downey, California, in 1962. YUM! and its franchisees operated more than 50,000 locations worldwide as of December 31, 2020.

The book running lead managers for Sapphire Foods’ IPO are JM Financial, BofA Securities India, ICICI Securities, and IIFL Securities. Devyani International, another KFC, Pizza Hut, and Costa Coffee quick service restaurant operator, recently collected Rs 1,838 crore through a public offering that was oversubscribed 116.7 times.

Company Profile 

SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY, is an entity incorporated on 10 November 2009 under Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA). SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY is also an entity listed under Class as a Private organization having Registration Number for the Company or Limited Liability Partnership as 197005. SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY is a Non-govt company and further SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY is Classified as a Company limited by Shares. The concerned entity is incorporated and registered under its relevant statute by the Registrar of Companies (i.e. R.O.C), RoC-Mumbai. The official address for the Registered office of the organization in question i.e. SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED COMPANY is 131, 13th Floor Free Press House Building Mumbai Mumbai City MH 400021 IN.

(Source: Fact Set)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

GrainCorp’s Fortunes Rely on a Normalized Crop Growing Year over the Long Term

handling, and port elevation services along the eastern seaboard of Australia. Earnings are heavily affected by seasonal conditions, but the diversification into oilseed crushing and refining reduces earnings volatility and provides growth opportunities. However, the firm has carved an economic moat, and forecast returns on invested capital to trail the firm’s cost of capital over the long run.

GrainCorp’s core Australian grain storage and logistics business is heavily reliant on favorable weather patterns. Beyond storage and logistics, the grain marketing segment competes domestically and internationally against other major commodities trading houses such as Cargill and Glencore. 

Outside of the agribusiness segment, it is forecasted roughly 2% organic annual growth in the processing segment top line after adjusting for a planned sale of Australian bulk liquid storage assets, combined with slight profitability expansion following recently completed restructuring. As such, project overall group revenue growing at a low-single-digit average annual pace past fiscal 2020, while EBIT margins rise to roughly 3.3%. We use a 9.5% weighted average cost of capital to discount future cash flows.

Financial Strength

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) capital structure is reasonable. It comprises debt and equity, with noncore debt associated with the funding of grain marketing inventory. As a result of swings in crop prices, GrainCorp’s cash flow and working capital requirements can be volatile, so the company will need to drawdown on debt on demand. The primary metrics are its net debt/capital gearing ratio and EBITDA/interest ratio. Gearing ratios can be volatile, given the swings in inventory levels.  Management doesn’t disclose the minimum EBITDA/interest ratio. In fiscal 2020, this ratio was about 4 times on an adjusted basis. We expect improvement to an average of around 19 times over the next five years, as EBITDA rebounds and interest expense remains low.

Bull Says

  • With strategic processing, storage, and transportation assets, GrainCorp’s size gives the company scale advantages over regional competitors.
  • Global thematic, such as increased food demand, particularly in Asia, should benefit agribusinesses such as GrainCorp. 
  • Despite divesting the malt business, GrainCorp has entered into a new grains derivative contract which assists with smoothing out earnings through the cycle.

Company Profile

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) is an agribusiness with an integrated business model operating across three divisions. The company operates the largest grain storage and logistics network in eastern Australia. GrainCorp provides grain marketing services to all major grain-producing regions in Australia, as well as to Canadian and U.K. growers. The company has also diversified

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Lazard Global Small Cap Fund Updates

Well-resourced team

The Lazard Global Small Cap Fund is managed by an experienced team of 7 Portfolio Managers (most with >20 years industry experience) working as regional generalists led by Edward Rosenfield. The Portfolio Management team has been working together for 13 years on average with the lead PM having worked on the strategy for ~20 years. This makes the team one of the largest, well-credentialed and experienced teams managing FUM in the asset class. Further, the team is supported by the broader Lazard family of analysts (categorized as Global Sector Specialists). This team comprises of more than 100 investment professionals and is considered one of the largest teams. The back and middle office support provided by the wider Lazard group is a positive in our view, as it leaves the PMs to focus on investing rather than other activities.

Disciplined investment process rooted in fundamentals analysis

The Fund uses a rigorous investment process with the Managers employing an active investment style, characterised by incorporating bottom-up investment research, which is underpinned by extensive visitations and meetings with Companies and experts, in assessing fundamentals and valuations of individual securities. In our view, this should lead to the team being able to garner informational advantages and insights over their peers. Indeed, the team’s focus on companies in emerging markets, with capitalisations of between US$300m and US$5bn, or in the range of companies included in the MSCI World Small Cap Accumulation Index, is under researched and a less efficient part of the market (i.e. where mispricing of asset valuations are more prevalent), makes sense in our view.

Solid absolute performance but relative underperformance

Although past performance is not an indicator for future performance, it is an indicator of whether the Fund’s strategy has worked in the past. Although the Fund has performed well on an absolute basis, the Fund has now underperformed relative to its benchmark by ~3.6% p.a. (5 years performance numbers) and a marginal -0.8%, since inception.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.