Investment thesis
- Potential for solid growth in Europe and Japan, with significant opportunities that the Company is well positioned to capitalise on.
- DMP has a strong position in the market in all of its existing geographies.
- DMP is ahead of the curve in terms of technology and innovative customer offerings.
- Merger in Europe to increase top-line revenue.
- A solid management team.
- Aiming for higher margins (i.e. operating leverage benefits).
Key Risks
The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:
- Acquisition integrations are not proceeding as planned.
- Failure to meet market expectations for sales and earnings growth.
- Dietary concerns that compel customers to seek out healthier alternatives
- Input and labour costs have risen.
- Competition-related market pressures.
- Key management personnel have left.
- The corporate office must increase financial assistance to struggling franchisees.
- Any additional negative media coverage, particularly regarding underpayment of wages at the franchisee level.
- Any new concerns about store rollout (such as cannibalisation or demographics not supportive of new stores).
- Commodity prices have risen as a result of Australia’s ongoing drought.
Highlights of key FY21 results
- FY22 has begun on a strong footing, with 2,974 stores (including 26 opened this fiscal year) delivering +7.7 percent network sales growth (+2.7 percent on a Same Store basis)… With a two-year cumulative Same Store Sales growth of 13.7 percent, Domino’s is trying to demonstrate sustainable growth by retaining customers from the pandemic’s initial peaks.
- The 3-5 Year Outlook for New Store Openings has increased to +9-12 percent (up from +7-9 percent),” with management stating that “a review of our modelling has increased our expectations for Benelux (+200 stores) and Japan (+500 stores), and now expects to operate 6,650 stores by 2033.
- DMP reaffirms its 3-5 year Same Store Sales forecast of +3-6 percent.
- The 3-5 year net capex outlook has been raised to $100-150 million (up from $60-100 million) as DMP assists franchisees with store expansions.
- The Board has determined that it will increase its payout ratio from 70% to 80% in recognition of this new phase in Domino’s growth and the expected free cash flow.
Company Description
Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited (DMP) operates retail food outlets. The Company offers franchises to the public and holds the franchise rights for the Domino’s brand and network in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Japan.
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.