with wide-moat Auckland Airport’s annual result offering fiscal 2022 guidance on what the airport will spend (on capital programs), but no guidance on what it will earn (for example revenue from passengers). Fair value estimate increases 2% to AUD 6.70 for the Australian listing due to time value of money. The shares screen as fairly valued at current levels. The New Zealand government has indicated that once vaccination rates increase, the plan is for a phased reopening, so long as that remains supported by the medical science.
The more cautious response to the pandemic in Australia and New Zealand means restrictions are unlikely to be largely removed until midway through fiscal 2022, a further recovery in the economy, consumer confidence in long-haul travel to rebuild, and a reigniting of the logistics needed to support mass travel, including travel agents, tour operators, business conferences, and so on.
The experience elsewhere in the world supports this view, with other highly vaccinated developed markets gradually removing restrictions. The pandemic’s notoriety was elevated in 2020 with the outbreak of corona virus on the Diamond Princess, but even the cruise industry has now restarted services in parts of the world. The company’s base case remains that virus concerns eventually fade, and passengers get back on board boats and airplanes.
Company’s Future outlook
It is believed that the air travel will recover to pre-pandemic levels. Air New Zealand’s fiscal 2021 domestic passenger capacity averaged a respectable 77% of pre-pandemic levels. Across the Tasman, Qantas was slower for the year, due to more frequent restrictions in Australia. However in the fourth quarter, a period which was relatively virus and restriction free nationwide, Qantas achieved domestic passenger traffic at 95% of pre-pandemic levels. Admittedly domestic travel in both nations was likely boosted by the inability to travel abroad. However, this is largely offset by the absence of international travelers taking domestic flights, especially in New Zealand, where nearly all international arrivals enter the country through Auckland Airport.
Company Profile
Auckland Airport is New Zealand’s largest airport, handling 21 million passenger movements in fiscal 2019, approximately 70% of the country’s international visitors. It owns 1,500 hectares of land, and hosts ancillary commercial services, including retail and duty-free, car parking, hotels, warehouses, and offices. Substantial development opportunities could bring its capacity up to nearly 26 million passenger movements per year anticipated by 2026, as well as adding capacity in the ancillary services offered. It also has a minority stake in the small but fast growing Queenstown airport on New Zealand’s south island.
(Source: Morningstar)
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