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Categories
Dividend Stocks

QBE Insurance: The Board Declared an Interim Dividend of A11 cps in the pcp, and Reflects a Pay-out Ratio of 57%

Investment Thesis:

  • On valuation grounds, QBE trades in-line with fair value.
  • Solid FY23 guidance.
  • New CEO announced a fresh perspective and potential rebasing of earnings. 
  • As a global insurer, QBE’s operations are much more diversified than domestic peers which means insurance risk is more spread out. 
  • Solid global reinsurance program should insulate earnings from catastrophe claims.
  • Expected prolonged period of lower interest rates (which does not benefit QBE’s investment portfolio).
  • Committed to the share buyback program.
  • Undertook a simplification process and sold non-core operations.

Key Risks:

  • Prolonged period of pricing pressures.
  • Adverse CAT claims.
  • Ongoing prolonged period low interest rates and volatility in credit spreads which affects QBE’s predominately defensive portfolio. 
  • As a global insurer, QBE’s operations are much more diversified than domestic peers which means insurance risk is more spread out. However, at the same time, as it underwrites across the globe, the business it is more difficult to forecast and analyse claims and pricing environment as well as reinsurance.
  • Undesirable investment returns below management guidance.
  • Prolonged poor performances in Asia.

Key Highlights:

  • Relative to the pcp, in US$ and on a statutory basis: gross written premium (GWP) of $11,552m was up from $10,203m, whilst net earned premium of US$6,789m was up from $6,571m. Adjusted GWP of $11,609m was driven by Group growth of +18% on a constant currency basis, or 13% excluding Crop. QBE saw ongoing growth across all divisions, with North America, International and Australia Pacific, up +24%, +19% and +6% respectively. QBE saw average renewal premium rate increases of +8.1% (North America, +10.4%, International, +7.0%, Australia Pacific, +9.1%), versus 9.7% in 1H21.
  • Combined operating ratio (ex risk-free rate) of 94.1% versus 93.3% in the pcp. On an adjusted basis, QBE’s combined operating ratio of 92.9% versus 93.3% in the pcp reflected higher rate increases and premium growth, lower net catastrophe costs and improvement in acquisition costs.
  • QBE achieved a poor total investment loss of $(840) m or (3.0) %, compared with return of $58m or 0.2% for the prior period, mainly as a result of unrealised losses associated with the significant increase in bond yields during the period.
  • According to management, “adjusting for the impact of changes in risk-free rates on fixed income securities, the total investment return was $14m or +0.1% for the half, a decrease from 0.7% in the prior period. In fixed income, the core yield from the portfolio was almost fully offset by adverse credit spread marks, and within risk assets, the returns from infrastructure and unlisted property were largely offset by unrealised losses on equities and enhanced fixed Income”.
  • NPAT of $151m was down from $441m, whilst adjusted net cash profit after tax of $169m was weaker than the $463m in the pcp.
  • Probability of adequacy of 91.7% remains robust (versus 92.3% in the pcp).
  • The Board declared an interim dividend of A9cps, down from A11cps in the pcp, and reflects a pay-out ratio of 57%.

Company Description:

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) is a global general insurer that underwrites commercial and personal policies across North America, Australia and New Zealand, Europe and emerging markets. QBE’s Equator Re segment is its captive reinsurer, providing reinsurance protection to the entire Group’s operating divisions.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Telstra Corporation (TLS) provides telecommunications and information products and services

Investment Thesis:

  • Solid FY23 guidance.
  • Solid dividend yield. 
  • Despite intense competition, subscriber growth numbers remain solid. 
  • In the long-term, the introduction of 5G provides potential growth, however, to monitor the ROIC from the capex spend. 
  • TLS still commands a strong market position and has the ability to invest in growth technologies and areas (e.g., Telstra Ventures) which could provide room for growth.
  • Industry consolidation leading to improved pricing behavior by competitors. 

Key Risks:

  • Further cuts to dividends.
  • Further deterioration in the core mobile and fixed business.  
  • Management fails to deliver on cost-out targets and asset monetisation. 
  • Any increase in churn, particularly in its Mobile segment – worse than expected decrease in average revenue per users (or any price war with competitors).
  • Any network disruptions/outages.
  • More competition in its Mobile segment. Merger of TPG Telecom and Vodafone Australia creates a better positioned (financially and resource wise) competitor
  • Quicker than expected deterioration in margins for its Fixed segment.
  • Risk of cost blowout in upgrading network and infrastructure to 5G.

Key Highlights:

  • FY23 guidance consistent with previous guidance. Total Income of $23.0bn to $25.0bn.
  • Underlying EBITDA of $7.8bn to $8.0bn.
  •  Capex of $3.5bn to $3.7bn. 
  •  Free cash flow after lease payments (FCFalA) of $2.6bn to $3.1bn. 
  •  On underlying EBITDA, guidance is provided within TLS’ previous FY23 ambition range, plus a contribution from Digicel Pacific, which is included in all FY23 measures. 
  • Capex guidance includes ~$350m of strategic investments in inter-city fibre and for the Viasat contract, and ~$150m for Digicel Pacific.
  • Key Highlights by Product. Underlying EBITDA of $7,251m was up +8.4%. Relative to the pcp: Mobile. EBITDA of $3,997m, was up +21.2%. The mobiles business performed strongly with $700m EBITDA growth (which equates to an +21.2% uplift), 2.9% postpaid handheld ARPU growth and 6.4% mobile services revenue growth. The product line saw 155,000 net retail postpaid handheld services added.
  •  Fixed – Consumer & Small Business. EBITDA of $55m, was down -60.4% and according to management “continued to be impacted by the tail end of the nbn migration, however there is confidence that EBITDA has bottomed. While retail bundles reduced by 87,000, bundle and standalone data ARPU increased by 2.4%”. 
  •  Fixed – Enterprise. EBITDA of $660m, was up +2.3%. Enterprise returned to growth at both the income and EBITDA level. Fixed Enterprise EBITDA increased 2.3%, with NAS EBITDA growth of $152m offsetting declines in data access and connectivity. 
  • Fixed – Active Wholesale. EBITDA of $159m, was down -31.2%.
  • International. EBITDA of $387m, was up +15.2%. 
  •  InfraCo Fixed. EBITDA of $1,655m, was down -1.1%. Income was $2.4bn, with core access revenue up 3.1% including nbn recurring receipts up 3.3%. 
  • Amplitel. EBITDA of $294m, was down -2.0%. According to management “Amplitel was established as a standalone business with sale of a non-controlling 49% interest delivering net cash proceeds after transaction costs of $2.8bn. Amplitel revenue increased by 8.9%”. 
  • Other (Miscellaneous & Telstra Health). EBITDA of $44m, was down from $68m in the pcp. Telstra Health had a strong FY22 with revenue up 51% to $243m (which encompasses Medical Director and Power Health acquisitions.

Company Description:

Telstra Corporation (TLS) provides telecommunications and information products and services. The company’s key services are the provision of telephone lines, national local and long distance, and international telephone calls, mobile telecommunications, data, internet and on-line. Its key segments are Mobile, Fixed, Data & IP, Foxtel, Network applications and services and Media.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Property

MGR secured the management rights to AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund , featuring a high-quality office portfolio

Above view of chef engineer in shirt and tie explaining sketch to manual workers in industry

Investment Thesis:

  • Potential uplift in property valuations and income.
  • High quality portfolio composition with stronger weighting towards Melbourne and Sydney urban areas minimizing risk from submarket weakness from Brisbane. 
  • Solid balance sheet. Gearing at 22.8% (at lower end of target range of 20%-30%).
  • Continuing recovery in weak retail sales especially for supermarkets.
  • Strong management team. 
  • Potential corporate activity.

Key Risks:

  • Deterioration in property fundamentals for Office, Industrial and Retail portfolio, such as delays with developments or lower than expected rental growth causing downward asset revaluations.
  • Tenant defaults as the economic landscape changes (increasingly competitive retail sector especially from online retailers such as Amazon). For instance, retailer bankruptcies causing rising vacancies in the retail portfolio.
  • Generally softening outlook on the broader retail market. 
  • Residential settlement risk and defaults. 
  • Higher interest rates impacting debt margins. 
  • Consumer sentiment towards impact of higher interest rates and effect on retail and residential businesses. 

Key Highlights:

  • Capital management. Strong balance sheet and capital position, with sufficient liquidity of $1.368bn (up +58% y/y) further to be enhanced by planned $1.3bn of non-core asset sales, net debt of $3.5bn (55% hedged) equating to gearing of 21.3%, down -150bps y/y and at the lower end of the target range of 20-30%, and credit rating of A-/A3 with stable outlooks from Fitch/Moody’s. 
  • Full year distribution of $404m, representing 10.2cpss, up +3% y/y, funded by strong operating cash flow of $896m, up +41% y/y. 
  • FY22 results summary. Compared to pcp; Despite headwinds from Covid-19-induced lockdowns, extreme weather along the eastern seaboard during 2H22, high inflation and tightening monetary policy, EBIT increased +10% and operating profit increased +8% (translating into EPS of 15.1cps vs guidance of at least 15cps) as +173% increase in Commercial & Mixed Use EBIT and +16% increase Residential EBIT was offset by -1% decline in Investment EBIT and +12% increase in unallocated overheads due to rising insurance and technology costs and normalisation of expenses. Statutory NPAT was up +1%, supported by asset revaluations within office, industrial and retail portfolios of $305m, offset by a $216m write-down of Toombul Shopping Centre amid damages by floods. 
  • AFFO increased +22% driven by higher operating earnings and lower maintenance capex. 
  • Cash collection declined -100bps to 97% (improved +500bps over 1H22) as high cash collection rates across Office (99%) and Industrial (100%) were more than offset by challenges in Retail (91%). 
  • Progressed ~$30bn development pipeline across Commercial & Mixed Use and Residential and settled 2,523 residential lots (flat y/y), exceeding 2,500 guidance. 
  • Increased external AUM by +3% to $10.2bn, equating to ~20% CAGR from FY15. 
  • Accelerating funds management strategy. MGR secured the management rights to AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund (AWOF), featuring a high-quality office portfolio valued at over $7.7bn, growing external AUM +75% over FY22 to $17.9bn, accelerating Funds Management strategy, broadening investor base, and introducing new accretive income streams with base management fees and property management fees from the fund expected to be earnings accretive from FY23 onwards. MGR is expected to become trustee of AWOF by mid-October 2022 and provide AWOF $500m in liquidity with management continuing to explore further co-investment opportunities in both Industrial and BTR (Build-to-Rent) platform and expects ~$5bn of future organic external AUM growth potential from diversified development pipeline.

Company Description:

Mirvac Group Ltd (MGR) is a real estate investment and development company. The company operates in Residential and Commercial & Mixed-Use space within the real Estate sector. Mirvac Group Ltd is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Global stocks

Landstar’s immense network of third-party carriers and owner-operators should remain highly valuable to shippers

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Landstar ranks among the largest third-party logistics providers in the highly fragmented $90 billion domestic asset-light truck brokerage space. Since Landstar doesn’t own tractors, only a fleet of trailers, it has much lower operating leverage than pure asset-based truckload carriers. Thus, it enjoys a variable cost structure with relatively low capital intensity that generates solid capital returns–more than 30% on average over the past five years. Moreover, as one of the largest providers, Landstar has built a vast network of shippers, asset-based truckload carriers, and independent sales agents that support a wide economic moat. Landstar’s trucking capacity is unusual for an asset-light broker because it relies in part on captive owner-operators (which the firm refers to as business capacity owners), in addition to unaffiliated third-party carriers, to haul freight. BCOs represent roughly half of revenue, haul exclusively for Landstar, and most operate fewer than five trucks. The firm pays BCOs a fixed percentage of revenue, which reduces its gross-margin percentage (net revenue/gross revenue) variability relative to peers like C.H. Robinson and Echo Global Logistics. It also specializes in odd-size freight (around one third of sales represents unsized/flatbed business) and irregular routes–factors that bestow incremental competitive differentiation. Additionally, rather than using a captive salesforce, Landstar contracts with a vast network of independent, commission-based sales agents.

Landstar’s immense network of third-party carriers and owner-operators should remain highly valuable to shippers. This is because shippers desire efficient access to the small carrier base throughout the cycle and the broader trucking industry will probably continue to face periodic growth constraints due to the limited driver pool, including the impact of intensifying regulation. Overall, the highway brokerage market to grow at a faster clip, than the combined for-hire trucking and intermodal markets, as large 3PLs continue to process more for-hire truckload and less-than-truckload freight.

Financial Strength

Landstar’s capital structure to be healthy and sustainable. The balance sheet is strong, with more than $290 million in cash and short-term investments at the end of 2020. The company is not highly leveraged, with a very reasonable debt/total capitalization ratio near 20% (including capital leases used to fund trailing equipment), in line with the five-year average. Debt/EBITDA was less than 1 times for 2020. Landstar enjoys a history of solid free cash flow generation, averaging 5.5% of total gross revenue over the past five years (through 2020). The free cash flow to average roughly the same percentage of revenue over the forecast horizon, though it will probably be higher in 2021, given the robust operating backdrop. Cash flow should be more than sufficient to fund share repurchases, regular dividends, and small opportunistic acquisitions.

Bulls Say’s

  • Landstar’s vast network of third-party truckload carriers creates a robust value proposition for shippers, particularly during periods of tight supply. The firm is also one of the largest-capacity providers for specialty flatbed shipping; this has proved to be no small advantage. 
  • Landstar has a long history of excellent execution and impressive profitability throughout the freight cycle. 
  • Landstar’s asset-light operating model has generated average returns on capital in excess of 30% over the past five years, well above returns generated by most traditional asset-intensive carriers.

Company Profile 

Landstar System is an agent-based asset-light third-party logistics provider focused on over-the-road truck transportation (92% of revenue). It also offers intermodal (3%) and global air and ocean forwarding (3%). The remainder of its revenue stems from warehousing services and premiums from insurance programs offered to captive owner-operators.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Best Buy leverages its network of 20,000 Geek Squad agents, increases touchpoints with customers

20025825 - closeup image of businessman drawing 3d graphics

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Best Buy is taking adequate steps to shore up its competitive position in an intensely competitive consumer electronics space. As the industry emerges from the shadow of the coronavirus (and steps into the quagmire of elevated inflation and softening consumer spending), it has become clear that how people shop has permanently changed–with customers demanding seamless omnichannel access to favourite brands, quick fulfilment across channels, and tech solutions to more problems than ever before. As a result, Best Buy’s strategic positioning continues to resonate, with the firm leveraging its physical footprint for fulfilment and post-sale services, emphasizing its differentiated service offering, and experimenting with newer store formats, as the “one size fits all” retail model across trade areas appears antiquated. With more than one third of sales coming through digital channels in calendar 2021, the firm’s recent supply chain and e-commerce investments ($2.7 billion over the last five years, some 74% of total capital expenditures) look prescient. Next-day delivery now covers 99% of U.S. zip codes (up from 80% from pre-pandemic), allowing the firm to compete on more level ground against e-commerce competitors, like wide-moat Amazon–as buy-online-pick-up-in-store, or BOPIS) volumes, at 40% of Best Buy’s e-commerce sales, remain more challenging for online-only stores to replicate.

Further, there can be a positive view of the firm’s Totaltech program, with more than 4.5 million members receiving unlimited home tech support, VIP access to phone and chat teams, free delivery and standard installation, members-only pricing, and free extended warranties on Best Buy purchases. Through the program, Best Buy leverages its network of 20,000 Geek Squad agents, increases touchpoints with customers, and positions itself better to earn the first shot at servicing customer category needs. Finally, Best Buy Health remains intriguing, with lower price elasticity and auspicious tailwinds from an insurer pay model. However, competition in the space remains rife, as a number of larger firms with healthcare aspirations (Google, Amazon, Apple) have invested in the space.

Financial Strength

Best Buy’s financial strength is sound, with the firm maintaining a modest net debt position and an investment-grade credit rating. With leverage well under 1 turn (0.3 debt/EBITDA at fiscal 2022 year-end), strong EBIT interest coverage (122 times), and no meaningful maturities until 2028, A very little financial risk for the firm may be in the near to medium term. Access to a $1.25 billion credit facility adds a further degree of insulation. Consistent with historical patterns, Best Buy is to prioritize growth capital expenditures, strategic acquisitions, dividends, and share repurchases with its free cash flow to sales (averaging 3.9% of sales annually over the next five years). Best Buy pays an attractive dividend, with the forecast calling for meaningful expansion through 2032, calling for a low-40% payout ratio. Share repurchases are to average a low-single-digit percentage of shares outstanding through 2032, with the model calling for total shareholder returns of $9. billion through fiscal 2027

Bulls Say’s

  • With digital sales volumes projected to equilibrate at roughly double pre-COVID-19 levels, Best Buy should better compete for online volumes that it historically ceded to online competitors. 
  • Improving route densities should strengthen the margin profile of small parcel e-commerce sales, with 35% of store “hubs” now accounting for 70% of shipfrom-store volume. 
  • The Best Buy Totaltech program should increase touchpoints with the firm’s best customers, increasing spending and frequency relative to pre-program behaviour.

Company Profile 

With $51.8 billion in fiscal 2022 sales, Best Buy is the largest pure-play consumer electronics retailer in the U.S., with roughly 10.6% share of the aggregate market and north of 40% share of offline sales, CTA industry, and Euromonitor data. The firm generates the bulk of its sales in-store, with mobile phones and tablets, computers, and appliances representing its three largest categories. Recent investments in e-commerce fulfilment, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have seen the U.S. e-commerce channel roughly double from pre pandemic levels, with management estimating that it will represent a mid-30% proportion of sales moving forward.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

BMW well placed to leverage from its BEV models making it attractive for ESG investors.

Investment Thesis:

  • Among the most recognized luxury car brands in the world, with approximately 10% market share in the premium market.
  • Growth in electric vehicles penetration provides an opportunity. 
  • Undemanding valuation and attractive dividend yield.
  • Potential for further consolidations or partnerships/JVs in the industry.
  • Key large investors provide some stability to overall share registry – Stefan Quandt (25.8%) and Susanne Klatten (19.2%).
  • BMW’s Financial Segment (new vehicle finance or leasing) provides a key competitive advantage for the Company in times of traditional lenders (e.g. banks) drying up liquidity. 

Key Risks:

  • Macroeconomic conditions (moderating global growth and its impact on demand), in particular demand significantly falls in China.
  • Competition and potential pricing pressure in luxury brands’ segment.
  • Electric vehicle strategy is not without risk and competition is likely to be high.
  • Potential impacts from Brexit and U.S. trade talks in earnings and supply chain disruption
  • Value destructive acquisition(s).
  • Substantial investors (with also board representation) mean capital management initiatives such as share buybacks are never likely to be considered despite the strategy offering attractive returns for the broader shareholder base.

Key Highlights:

  • FY22 outlook. Management expects; (1) Automotive segment EBIT margin to be 7-9% with decline in deliveries partially offset by positive price and mix effects and the continued development of the used car markets, and ROCE to be 14-19%. (2) Motorcycles segment EBIT margin to be 8-10% driven by slight increase in deliveries, and ROCE to be 19-24%. (3) Financial Services segment ROE to be 17-20% (vs prior forecast of 14-17%) primarily due to good performance in the used car markets, with the segment already recognising appropriate levels of provisions/allowances to cover residual value and credit risks. (4) Deliveries to slightly decline y/y as business conditions continue to remain difficult in 2H22 with ongoing supply bottlenecks (particularly for semiconductors), the war in Ukraine and interruptions in supply chains being headwinds. However, the percentage of electrified vehicles to still increase significantly with sales of fully electric vehicles more than doubling y/y. 
  • 1H22 results summary. Compared to pcp: Revenues climbed +19.1% to €65.912bn, despite total vehicle deliveries falling -19.8% to 1.16m (still expanded its leading position in the global premium segment), driven by full consolidation of the Chinese subsidiary BBA. 
  • EBT rose +65.9% to reach an all-time high of €16.156bn with margin improving +690bps to 24.5%, driven by tailwind of € 7.7bn from the revaluation of previously held BBA shares at fair market value, partially offset by +23.3% increase in cost of sales and +14.3% increase in R&D costs.
  •  NPAT increased +73.6% to €13.232bn. 
  • Capex increased +71.4% to €2.929bn due to upfront expenditures for the ramp-up of e-mobility and investments at BBA. 
  • 1H22 segment results. Compared to pcp: Automotive revenues rose +18.8% to €56.7bn, benefiting from positive pricing, product mix effects and growth in aftersales business which combined with +23.1% increase in cost of sales (headwinds from full consolidation, rising raw material and energy prices and higher R&D costs) delivered -22% decline in EBIT to €4.83bn with margin declining -450bps to 8.5%. FCF increased +58.5% to €7.77bn driven by acquisition of BBA’s liquid funds with management targeting FY22 FCF of at least €10bn.
  •  Financial Services delivered EBT growth of +2.3% to €1.981bn as -20.8% decline in new contracts with retail customers amid limited availability of new cars and intense competition in the financial services sector was more than offset by increased financing volume per vehicle.
  • Motorcycles revenue increased +2.6% to €1.663bn despite sales volume remaining flat y/y, however, EBIT declined -17.3% to €235m with margin down -340bps to 14.1%.

Company Description:

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) is a leading manufacturer and retailer of luxury cars and motorcycles globally. The Company is increasingly focused on producing electric vehicles, with the group selling more than 140,000 electrified vehicles during 2018.  BMW Group brands include BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce. 

(Source: Banyantree)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.

The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice.

The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities.

Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document.

The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

BAC’s asset quality remains strong and efficiencies in costs should help self-fund new investments in tech and marketing which should help gain market share

Investment Thesis:

  • Attractive valuation versus the price target. 
  • Leveraged to the improving economic conditions and activity in the U.S. 
  • Efficiency gains at the expense line exceeds market expectations. 
  • Significant leverage to the yield curve steepening in the U.S.
  • Cost out program to support earnings over the long-term. 
  • Revenue growth driven by consumer and business. 
  • Credit quality is very strong, with further reserve releases possible.  
  • Capital position is well above requirement level and management’s desired buffer, which opens up capital management initiatives.  

Key Risks:

  • Further decline in net interest margins from low yields and U.S. Fed interest rate cuts.
  • Intense competition to loan growth.
  • Subdued economic growth or a shallow/deep recession.
  • Funding pressures for deposits and wholesale funding. 
  • Political and regulatory changes affecting the banking legislation.
  • Credit risk with potential default of mortgages, personal and business loans and credit cards.
  • Efficiency gains disappoint relative to market expectations.

Key Highlights:

  • 2Q22 result summary.  Revenue (net of interest expense) increased +6% y/y to$22.7bn, with Net interest income (NII) up +22% y/y to $12.4bn (yield up +25bps to 1.86%), driven by higher interest rates, lower premium amortization and loan growth, and non-interest income down -9% y/y to $10.2bn, driven by lower investment banking fees, mark-to-market losses related to leveraged finance positions and lower service charges due to non-sufficient funds and overdraft policy changes, partially offset by higher sales and trading revenues.  
  • Non-interest expense increased +2% y/y (flat qoq) to $15.3bn and included $425m recognized for certain regulatory matters.
  •  Net income of $6.2bn, declined -32% y/y as pcp benefited by positive tax adjustment from revaluation of U.K. deferred tax assets of $2bn and $2.2bn in credit reserves releases, with Consumer Banking decreasing -5% y/y to $2.9bn, Global Banking decreasing -38% y/y to $1.5bn, Global Markets increasing +12% y/y to $1bn and Global Wealth & Investment Management increasing +16% y/y to $1.2bn.
  • Average loan and lease balances up +12% y/y to $1.0 trillion led by strong commercial loan growth as well as higher consumer balances and average deposits up +7% y/y to $2.0 trillion.
  • CET1 declined -100bps y/y (up +10bps qoq) to 10.5%, however, remains well above 2Q minimum requirement of 9.5% and +10bps above expected minimum required on October 1, with management expecting to build some additional buffer on top of that in 3Q.
  • Shareholder returns of $2.7bn ($1.7bn in dividends and $1bn in repurchases).
  • NII outlook. Assuming forward curve (as on July 15) materializing (asset sensitivity on a spot basis to a 100bps rate hike would be $5.8bn), modest growth in loans and deposits and deposit betas reflecting disciplined pricing, management expects net interest income in 3Q22 to increase by $900m-1bn qoq, further growing at a faster pace on a sequential basis in 4Q22, which combined with combined with expense discipline should boost the bottom line. 
  • Strong asset quality. Asset quality continued to remain strong with net charge-offs declining -4% y/y to $571m resulting in a net charge-off ratio of 23bps (down -4bps y/y), however, bank took a provision for credit losses of $523m (vs release of $1621m in pcp) amid loan growth and builds for a dampened macroeconomic outlook in the future. Though a slowdown in economy/recession brings risks of worsening credit profile, the BAC’s loan portfolio remains solid and carries less inherent risk compared to prior downturns, with lower concentration in the consumer portfolio (down -22% vs 4Q09), less exposure to unsecured consumer credit (down -48% vs 4Q09) and home equity loans (down -82% vs 4Q09), and 92% of commercial loan book either investment-grade or secured with Fed’s stress test indicating significantly lower credit losses expected in a severe downturn (5.2% vs 6.9% in 2013) and the bank holding much higher liquidity with global liquidity sources having increased 5x over 4Q09.

Company Description:

       Bank of America (BAC) is one of the largest banks in the U.S., serving consumers, small and middle-market businesses, and large corporations with a full range of banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk management products and services.

      (Source: Banyantree)

      DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only). This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937. The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate. Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and are not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Smith & Nephew’s smaller user base means the firm could find itself locked out of more hospitals and healthcare systems in the future

85215903 - attractive businessman using mobile phone while having lunch

Business Strategy and Outlook 

Impressive innovation has allowed Smith & Nephew to carve out a slice of the orthopaedic, sports medicine, and wound-care markets. Though the company is smaller than the dominant orthopaedic competitors, it has punched above its weight in terms of introducing meaningful innovation with its pioneering hip resurfacing implant and knee replacements with Verilast technology, which it contends can last for 30 years. These are significant improvements that exceed the evolutionary innovation typically seen in orthopaedics. Nevertheless, as the competitive set consolidates, Smith & Nephew’s position as a midsize competitor leaves it vulnerable as the hospital customer base seeks to reduce vendors to save costs. The firm’s market share–about 10% of hips and knees–translates into a tenuous position. Share shifts in this market are glacial at best, thanks to significant switching costs, and new technology does not necessarily overcome those switching costs. Smith & Nephew’s strong show of meaningful innovation translated into a mere 200-basis-point gain in share over the past decade. This showdown between technical innovation and the stickiness of surgeon preference underscores how difficult it is to induce practitioners to switch. This dynamic and Smith & Nephew’s smaller user base mean the firm could find itself locked out of more hospitals and healthcare systems in the future.

The firm has been aggressively pivoting to reduce its reliance on large-joint replacement with the acquisition of ArthroCare for its arthroscopy and sports medicine presence, concerted efforts to penetrate emerging markets, and the new additions of Osiris Therapeutics for its regenerative products and Leaf Healthcare’s pressure sore-monitoring system. The jury is still out on whether this is enough to allow Smith & Nephew to compete effectively against competitors that continue to grow larger and remain independent. As the market moves gradually toward more vendor consolidation, Smith & Nephew can eventually pair up with a larger rival, such as Stryker or Johnson & Johnson, in order to better compete.

Financial Strength

Thus far, there is a little to get nervous about Smith & Nephew’s financial flexibility. While the firm has periodically made acquisitions, it has also generated enough cash to deleverage in relatively quick fashion. For example, following the acquisitions of Osiris in 2019, debt/EBITDA rose to just over 4 times, but has moderated since then. Smith & Nephew can easily meet its interest obligations many times over. Prior to the pandemic, the firm consistently held net debt/EBITDA around 1 time. As compared with other med tech firms, Smith & Nephew issued debt in 2020 to enhance its cash cushion in the face of uncertainty. With procedure volume resuming, it is expected the firm to end the year with net debt/EBITDA around 2.3 times and for further deleveraging in the ensuing years. This still leaves plenty of flexibility for management to leverage up, if management decides to further round out Smith & Nephew’s portfolio in adjacent areas to its core markets. At this point, the firm can fund ongoing operations and support its intention to make regular share repurchases with its cash flow, but it may use debt financing for more large acquisition.

Bulls Say’s

  • Smith & Nephew participates in the fast-growing sports medicine arena thanks to its extensive arthroscopy portfolio. 
  • A strong arthroscopy presence in ambulatory surgical centres leaves Smith & Nephew well positioned to expand its large joint footprint in that setting. 
  • Smith & Nephew has been building out its presence in emerging markets. Considering the obstacles in developed markets that keep it from transforming into a top-tier player, S&N may enjoy greater upside in developing markets.

Company Profile 

Smith & Nephew designs, manufactures, and markets orthopaedic devices, sports medicine and arthroscopic technologies, and wound-care solutions. Roughly 42% of the U.K.-based firm’s revenue comes from orthopaedic products, and another 30% is sports medicine and ENT. The remaining 28% of revenue is from the advanced wound therapy segment. Roughly half of Smith & Nephew’s total revenue comes from the United States, just over 30% is from other developed markets, and emerging markets account for the remainder.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

KLA Tencor has built its leading technical expertise and extensive knowledge base into a wide economic moat

Business Strategy and Outlook 

KLA dominates the process diagnostic and control segment of the semiconductor equipment industry. During the fabrication process, wafers must be inspected for defects and proper critical dimensions to identify and rectify problem sources. As customers continue pursuing Moore’s Law, smaller chips must meet more precise specifications, which in turn increase the need for advanced PDC tools. These tools help customers improve semiconductor die yields, accelerate development and product ramps, and ultimately maximize profitability. KLA boasts a wide economic moat and is well positioned for healthy growth going forward.

With a 50%-plus share in the PDC market and installed base of 48,000 tools, KLA-Tencor has built its leading technical expertise and extensive knowledge base into a wide economic moat. These competitive advantages have allowed the firm to maintain its technological edge through a large research and development budget and close relationships with customers to identify future needs in the PDC space. The firm is not immune to the cyclicality of the semiconductor equipment market and thus may face bouts of low capital expenditures due to prolonged process nodes and increased tool reuse. However, KLA has been able to charge a premium for its specialized products, as competitors’ offerings are generally not as advanced. This allows the firm to handle cyclical troughs fairly well for a company that operates in the chip equipment industry. KLA is well positioned for the long-term, as chipmakers will require more advanced PDC tools to go with fabrication technologies featuring smaller circuit sizes, new materials, and more process steps. For example, EUV lithography, which is being deployed at process nodes 7-nanometer and below, requires new PDC tools to help validate and maintain the new technology. This endeavour requires a large research and development budget that only firms such as KLA can provide. The firm’s acquisition of Orbotech provides solid diversification into the flat panel display and printed-control board markets, though these tools are slightly margin-dilutive relative to KLA’s core offerings.

Financial Strength

Historically, KLA-Tencor has maintained excess cash over its debt balance. However, with the leveraged recapitalization in 2015, the company went to a net debt position for the first time. At the end of fiscal 2022, KLA reported $2.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities versus $6.6 billion in long-term debt. While the firm has been able to generate sufficient cash to service the outstanding debt and maintain healthy R&D investments, one can remain vigilant for signs that KLA is unable to appropriately accomplish either requirement. During cyclical downturns, typically prefer to see equipment providers have a healthy cash cushion.

Bulls Say’s

  • KLA is the leader in a highly profitable segment. PDC tools lower production costs and maximize productivity for chipmakers, making them a crucial part of the semiconductor manufacturing process.
  • KLA has the most extensive data and knowledge base in the PDC market, which it has gained through years of industry leadership, making it difficult for competitors to catch up. 
  • By focusing on PDC, KLA has carved a leadership position in this increasingly important subsegment of the equipment market.

Company Profile 

LA designs and manufactures yield-management and process-monitoring diagnostic and control systems for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. The systems are used to analyse the manufacturing process at various steps in a semiconductor’s development. The firm’s laser-scanning products are used for wafer qualification, process monitoring, and equipment monitoring. KLA also provides inspection tools and systems for optical metrology and e-beam metrology.

(Source: MorningStar)

DISCLAIMER for General Advice: (This document is for general advice only).

This document is provided by Laverne Securities Pty Ltd T/as Laverne Investing. Laverne Securities Pty Ltd, CAR 001269781 of Laverne Capital Pty Ltd AFSL No. 482937.The material in this document may contain general advice or recommendations which, while believed to be accurate at the time of publication, are not appropriate for all persons or accounts. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor may require.  The material contained in this document does not take into consideration an investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, investors should consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation, and needs. The material contained in this document is for sales purposes. The material contained in this document is for information purposes only and is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of securities or financial products and neither or anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. This document should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and recipients should seek independent advice. The material in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be true but neither Laverne and Banyan Tree nor its associates make any recommendation or warranty concerning the accuracy or reliability or completeness of the information or the performance of the companies referred to in this document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any opinions and or recommendations expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and, Laverne and Banyan Tree are not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. References made to third parties are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate.

Laverne and Banyan Tree and its respective officers may have an interest in the securities or derivatives of any entities referred to in this material. Laverne and Banyan Tree do and seek to do, business with companies that are the subject of its research reports. The analyst(s) hereby certify that all the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject investment theme and/or company securities. Although every attempt has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in the document, liability for any errors or omissions (except any statutory liability which cannot be excluded) is specifically excluded by Laverne and Banyan Tree, its associates, officers, directors, employees, and agents.  Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, Laverne and Banyan Tree, its directors, employees and agents accept no liability or responsibility for any loss or damage of any kind, direct or indirect, arising out of the use of all or any part of this material.  Recipients of this document agree in advance that Laverne and Banyan Tree are not liable to recipients in any matters whatsoever otherwise; recipients should disregard, destroy or delete this document. All information is correct at the time of publication. Laverne and Banyan Tree do not guarantee reliability and accuracy of the material contained in this document and is not liable for any unintentional errors in the document. The securities of any company(ies) mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. This document is provided to the recipient only and is not to be distributed to third parties without the prior consent of Laverne and Banyan Tree.

Categories
Technology Stocks

EQIX posted strong 2Q22 results, with revenue of $1.817bn and net income of $216m

Two young women talking together with a tablet in the living room. They sit spaced apart to prevent the virus.

Investment Thesis

  • By considering the quality of the business, EQIX is trading at fair valuation (from the perspective of trading multiples, dividend yield and the DCF valuation).
  • Attractive long-term outlook in global digitization and data requirements of companies, with 5G and cloud computing as key drivers.
  • Businesses moving away from on-premise centers towards colocation and cloud networks.
  • Diversified client base and revenue stream minimizes contractual risk.
  • Opportunity for future market share expansion via potential acquisitions. 

Key Risks

  • Increases to operating expenses – particularly electricity costs. However, the contracts between Equinix and its customers provide for rights and protection clauses to permit the Company to pass on electricity cost increases that exceed 5%.
  • Rising technology and acceptance of cloud-based services may incentivise businesses to fully leverage cloud infrastructure rather than connecting with IBX data centers. However, management has downplayed these concerns, stating that there must still be direct interconnection between Cloud and businesses within the data centers.
  • Newer IBX data centers have twice the cooling needs as old centers. Potential power limitations could force the company to have a lower utilization rate of its cabinets.  
  • Increased competition in the industry from the likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft and Digital Realty Trust, and the possibility of formation of strong strategic alliances amongst competitors 
  • EQIX is subject to exchange rate risk due to the company’s diverse geographical scale of operations. However, the company hedges many of these exposures. 
  • REIT classification mandates a minimum of 90% of taxable income paid to shareholders. This may hinder EQIX’s ability to increase its cash via retained earnings and could render the company’s balance sheet inflexible.

Key Highlights 

  • For FY22 total revenues of $7.259-7.299bn, up +9-10% y/y (+10-11% normalized and in CC), an increase of $65m vs prior guidance offset by a $102m FX impact, adjusted EBITDA of $3.323-3.353bn with margin of 46%, an increase of $33mvs prior guidance excluding integration costs ($30m integration costs) offset by a $49m FX impact, AFFO of $2.636-2.666bn, up +8-9% y/y (+8-10% normalized and in CC) and an increase of $33m vs prior guidance offset by a $42m FX impact, AFFO per share of $28.77-29.10, up +6-7% y/y (+8-9% normalized and in CC), total capex of $2.313-2.563bn with recurring capex of $180-190m, and cash dividend of $1,132m (up +10% y/y) equating to DPS of $12.4 (up +8% y/y). 
  • For 3Q22 revenues of $1.827-1.847bn, up +1-2% qoq, adjusted EBITDA of $831-851m, and recurring capex of $42-52m. 
  •  Revenue increased +10% y/y to $1.817bn (vs guidance of $1.809-1.829bn), with America is up +11% y/y (+9% normalized in CC), EMEA up +11% y/y (and in normalized CC) and APAC up +5% y/y (+11% normalized in CC). 
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased +8% y/y to $860m (vs guidance of $828-848m) with margin of 47.3%, with Americas growing +15% y/y (+14% normalized in CC) with margin of 45.3% (up +190bps y/y), EMEA growing +13% y/y (+12% normalized in CC) with margin of 49.3% (up +50bps y/y), while APAC declined -10% y/y (-5% normalized in CC) with margin of 48.8% (down -770bps y/y).
  • Net Income increased +217% y/y to $216m, primarily due to strong operating performance and a favorable tax settlement and AFFO increased +9% y/y to $691m.
  • Capex was $495m (~55% of expansion cabinets in metros that generate >$100m of annual revenues), including recurring capex of $35, down -23% y/y and at lower end of guidance range of $33-43m.  

Company Description

Equinix is a leading company in internet connection and data centers. It is the global market leader in the colocation data center industry, providing data services and platforms for over 9800 companies across 24 countries. This allows companies to connect to their online ecosystem and meet their interconnection needs for their business operations. EQIX also offers additional solutions such as the Equinix Cloud Exchange Fabric to connect data centers to cloud networks, and the recently introduced Equinix SmartKey to offer encryption protection for the data security management of companies.

(Source: Banyantree)

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