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Technical Picks

Sonic Healthcare– Earnings To Retrace

Key Investment Considerations

  • Sonic has a strong market position in a consolidating industry. As a result, and in line with its strategy, we expect ongoing acquisitions to boost organic growth
  • Pathology labs benefit from scale, however, we expect operational efficiencies to be offset by a combination of pricing pressure and constrained volumes and thus limited improvement in underlying operating margins OFree cash conversion of net income is healthy and we forecast 95% of earnings result in free cash. After paying dividends, this gives Sonic the capacity to acquire 1% of revenue growth annually from free cash resources which we factor into our valuation
  • Sonic’s “medical leadership” model recognises the importance of the relationship with the referring doctor as the company seeks to differentiate itself on service levels rather than purely price. Evidence of the success of the model is the organic growth rate ahead of the market, suggesting market share gains. In an industry where absolute volumes are an important component in achieving cost advantage, Sonic’s source of moat, the organic growth supplemented by acquisitions continues to add value for shareholders.
  • Sonic has a leading market position in most of itsgeographies and as a result is well placed to take advantage of a consolidating industry.
  • Demographics and the focus on value-based based healthcare support the ongoing global volume growth in preventative diagnostics such pathology and imaging.
  • There is potential upside to margins in both Laboratories, from synergies and operational efficiencies, and Imaging from re-indexation of prices.
  • Organic growth is potentially slowing and acquisitive growth is more expensive to achieve. OPricing pressure is not over. Anatomical pathology, which is a strategic growth area of Sonic in the U.S., is a targeted area for cost savings by large private health insurers.
  • Returns on invested capital including goodwill of approximately 8% are only marginally above the 7% weighted average cost of capital suggesting the company is paying full prices for its acquisitions.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares

Scentre Group – Shares Still Look Undervalued

However, the group faces challenges from consumers closing their wallets in 2020 due to the coronavirus, and from e-commerce taking a greater share of spending over time. The business has been allocating more space to food, entertainment and services in response to online competition undermining the rent it receives from discretionary retailers. We expect tenants will resist agreeing to traditional annual increases above CPI without corresponding revenue growth. As such, we forecast lower income growth in the long run, weighing on property values.

Key Investment Consideration

Under pressure specialty tenants pay higher rent per square metre than anchor tenants, and therefore drive Scentre Group’s profitability.

Scentre Group has high leverage, and has so far resisted raising equity in 2020, unlike other retail REITs. It can persevere, but we think it needs an improved operating environment in calendar 2021 to avoid an equity raise. OThe quality of Scentre’s assets will ensure they remain pre-eminent shopping destinations in Australia, but we expect e commerce will undermine its pricing power.

Our base case is Scentre either avoids an equity raise, or takes advantage of a rally in sentiment towards REITs to issue equity at less dilutive prices. But we include a dilutive equity raise in our bear case. A realistic possibility is something in between, perhaps a smaller rights issue at a less dilutive price, when markets are optimistic about recovery.

It’s possible our very high uncertainty rating could reduce if operational performance improves once distancing requirements fade, and Scentre reduces debt. With income underpinned by contractual leases under nearly all circumstances, Scentre’s revenue is much more predictable than many other companies. However, the pandemic is one of those rare circumstances, and until that subsides uncertainty remains.

Australian shopping centres are in better shape than their counterparts in the United States, due to lower retail space per person, and a larger share of anchor tenants such as supermarkets.

Population growth in Australia was among the fastest in the developed world until coronavirus. If immigration recovers it would provide infill demand at Scentre’s assets.

Despite retail spending switching online, retailers still need a physical presence to maintain their brand. Premium retailers have little choice but to locate shops in the malls of Scentre and a handful of other groups, given the quality of locations and centres.

While Scentre has one of the highest-quality shopping centre portfolios in Australia, rents are higher than for convenience focused centres, and high end consumer goods are most at risk from online competition.

In response to online competition, Scentre Group has remixed its tenant profile towards food, entertainment and services. However, these categories are more sensitive to social distancing preferences, and typically require higher tenant incentives and maintenance capital expenditure.

Retail space per person is higher in Australia than it is in Europe, and the amount of floorspace devoted to under pressure department stores is high. High end malls in the U.S. may benefit from the closure of marginal malls, but outright closures of rival malls is likely to be less frequent in Australia.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Regis Resources

Gold grades for resources yet to be converted to reserves at Duketon are on about 30% below reserves and if converted will likely be far less profitable. If developed, the McPhillamys mine should add another mine with just under 10 years of reserves in the medium term. Excess returns for the five-year forecast period are a function of sound acquisitions and developments. However, it will be difficult to replicate this investment success. The potential development of McPhillamys is likely to come at a higher unit capital cost and generate lower returns than the existing operations.

Regis’ gold mines do not represent in-perpetuity businesses, and this is a key reason we see the shares as overvalued. To illustrate the importance of finite life, if we were to assume production continued indefinitely, our fair value estimate would almost double to around AUD 7 per share. Reserves at the operating Duketon mines are sufficient for just over five years production at forecast fiscal 2020 rate. Short reserve life means additional resources, in the shape of exploration and development expenditure, will need to be spent to extend operations. But ultimately there’s no guarantee exploration will be successful.

Profile

Regis Resources is one of Australia’s largest gold companies, producing around 350,000 ounces of gold per year. Cash costs are below the industry average. Operating mines are located in Western Australia, which brings relatively low sovereign risk. Management has a sound operating track record and an appropriate bias towards strong balance sheets and dividends; however, the gold price and new investments will be the primary arbiters of long-term returns. Development of the McPhillamys deposit in New South Wales, if approved, should add approximately 200,000 ounces of gold production a year in the medium term.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Qube Holdings Ltd– Weathering the Storm

However, Qube’s strategy to consolidate a fragmented industry should deliver above-market rates of growth and scale benefits. Qube is developing the Moorebank intermodal terminal and warehouses, located on the Southern Sydney Freight Line, to help alleviate congestion at Port Botany and drive efficiencies in the distribution supply chain. Moorebank, on full completion and ramp-up, should materially contribute to group earnings and deliver a strong competitive advantage for the group’s logistics operations.

Key Investment Consideration

  • Logistics and bulk operations are cyclical and highly dependent on container and bulk volumes. Operating conditions are challenging, with COVID-19 and tough competition pressuring margins and volumes.
  • Our forecasts assume mid single-digit revenue growth in the medium term for Qube, supported by organic growth, scale benefits, investment in new projects, and acquisitions.
  • The development of Moorebank as an intermodal precinct should significantly improve the economics and efficiency of managing container volumes to and from Port Botany over rail.
  • Qube’s strategy is to consolidate the fragmented logistics chain surrounding the export and import of containers, bulk products, automobiles, and general cargo, to create a more efficient and cost-effective supply chain. The business has enjoyed some successes to date, though significant scope for industry consolidation remains.
  • There is significant potential to increase efficiency through vertical integration of port logistics services. Qube will attempt to deliver on this strategy through consolidation and integration.
  • The Moorebank Intermodal Terminal should become a key piece of Sydney’s transport infrastructure, driving
  • strong returns for Qube.
  • Senior management has a proven track record in the port logistics segment and has demonstrated an ability to generate strong returns for shareholders.
  • A corporate structure of associate companies, acquired businesses, and newly purchased assets limits transparency. Meanwhile, a strategy focused on acquisitions adds integration risk. OWhile Qube’s long-term prospects are attractive, its businesses are cyclical and cash flow may be affected by a deterioration in economic conditions.
  • There are still risks surrounding the development of Moorebank and other projects. Currently trading on a high P/E ratio, any disappointments could hit the share price hard.
  • A key positive is the firm’s strengthening financial health, which will get a major boost if the Moorebank Logistics Park, or MLP, is sold. Net debt/EBITDA was a relatively aggressive 3.8 times in fiscal 2020, and could fall below 1 times if Moorebank sells, which we consider conservative.
  • The sale of MLP is progressing well. After receiving nonbinding indicative offers from a range of potential suitors, Qube has entered exclusive negotiation with LOGOS Property Group, an Asia Pacific property investor. There is no guarantee an attractive offer will be made but values for good-quality industrial property are holding up well, as seen in Goodman Group’s security price. The coronavirus hasn’t hurt–online shopping, which requires investment in logistics and industrial property, is booming and interest rates have reduced.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

Medibank Private Ltd– Will Grow Earnings

Operating in a heavily regulated industry, Australian health insurers typically produce stable and defensive earnings and, in our opinion, Medibank is well placed to produce solid long-term earnings growth. Future changes to regulations could hurt Medibank’s prospects, but we don’t believe the government would materially damage the viability of the private health insurance sector in Australia. Growth is supported by government reliance on private health insurers to partially fund escalating healthcare costs. Government policies and incentives encourage participation, with 53% of the population covered for private hospital and/or ancillary health insurance.

Key Investment Considerations

  • Smaller players on thin margins may need to reign in customer acquisition spend if industry wide claim inflation is not slowed. Medibank can continue to generate attractive returns.
  • Mid-single digit earnings and dividend growth, with Medibank’s ability to pay out 75% to 85% of earnings as dividends sustainable.
  • Medibank is Australia’s largest private health insurer, with 1.8 million policyholders covering approximately 3.5 million people under the Medibank and ahm brands. Medibank Private was established in 1976 to bring increased competition to the private health insurance industry, with the government selling the business in 2014 via an initial public offering. The ahm business was acquired in 2009, with Medibank successfully using the brand to grow its share of younger customers. The dual brand strategy has successfully allowed the group to offer differentiated pricing and messaging to grow members and profits. Medibank has over 400,000 policyholders under the ahm brand, up from only 160,000 in 2010. In our opinion, Medibank offers steady long-term defensive earnings growth.
  • There are 37 registered health insurers in Australia, with the top five accounting for around 80% of the market by policy numbers. Despite the “free” universal public system in Australia, close to 44% of Australia’s population of 25.5 million have private hospital cover due to taxation benefits and penalties, shorter wait times, and a choice of doctor and hospital. We expect government policy settings, which promote the take up and retention of private health insurance products, to remain in place. Long-term growth prospects are supported by government reliance on private health insurers to partially fund escalating healthcare costs. With an ageing population, higher demand for more intense healthcare will further pressure the public health system.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

McMillan Shakespeare Ltd

McMillan is the leader in providing salary packaging and novated leases in Australia, and enjoys strong long-term relationships stemming from also being the first outsourced salary packaging service provider in the country. Its integrated business model allows cross-selling of products and also provides bargaining power when sourcing motor vehicles from dealers.

However, these advantages have not delivered significantly higher operating margins than its other major peer, SmartGroup Corporation. McMillan also lacks pricing power, having had to reduce margins to retain its largest employer customer–the Queensland state government—in 2016. Furthermore, the industry’s relatively low capital requirements suggests that barriers to entry are low.

Major risks include material changes to the current fringe benefits tax, or FBT, concessions in Australia, and an economic downturn which will affect employment conditions. These risks have certainly been amplified in the prevailing COVID-19 outbreak, which is likely to see higher unemployment and a recession. Such an environment would reduce demand for salary packaging and novated leases.

Australian government has laid out around AUD 320 billion in fiscal stimulus to date (or about 16% of GDP), with potentially more follow-ups. It’s possible that a future Australian government could revisit the FBT regime to generate more revenue in the face of federal budget deficits. If this were to occur, the high growth and returns generated by McMillan’s salary packaging and novated leasing business–its main source of revenue–would be compromised.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Federated Hermes MDT Small Cap Growth

He is responsible for the model and research and draws on seven managers/analysts. Frederick Konopka also became a manager in 2008 and handles portfolio construction and trading for the team. MDT looks to group companies into different baskets producing various streams of alpha potential using valuation, growth, momentum, and quality indicators.

By using classification and regression tree analysis, the team can test thousands of potential combinations of factors based on 30-plus years of U.S. stock data to find the best mixtures of alpha using a three-month investment horizon. Still, such a short investment horizon can be difficult to implement. It leads to annual portfolio turnover that can be lofty and varies greatly. Over the past five years, turnover ranged from 188% to 227%, well above the 59%-66% range for the typical small-growth. The portfolio’s holdings have varied from 150 to 250, suggesting some opportunities may be too illiquid and costly to pursue unless they’re spread out across more holdings.

Since Mahr became lead manager in August 2008, the Institutional shares’ 11.9% annualized return through April 2021 lagged the small growth category’s 12.2% gain and the Russell 2000 Growth Index’s 12.2% rise. The fund has performed better since the team’s 2013 process switch to multiple decision trees, but the fund’s high volatility has kept its risk-adjusted results in line with the index.

Quantitative approach with short focus

MDT groups companies into different baskets of alpha potential. The team forecasts three month returns using valuation factors based on structural earnings, tangible book value, and forward earnings estimates; growth factors like analyst conviction and long-term earnings growth; quality factors measuring free cash flow, leverage, and reliance on external capital; and momentum factors like relative stock price trend. The team uses classification and regression tree analysis to test thousands of potential combinations based on 30-plus years of U.S. stock data.

Prior to 2013, the team used one large decision tree to forecast alpha, but that approach was subject to overfitting issues. Switching to regression analysis using multiple decision trees resulted in combinations of subsets of the factors with the best alpha potential. This leads to the fund holding stocks with different avenues to produce alpha, potentially leading to more opportunities to outperform. The MDT team continues to refine its model, usually updating the model twice a year. These revisions are typically on the margin, though. In 2020, for example, they adjusted their structural earnings indicator by using an industry relative basis.

Diversified, but high turnover

The strategy’s short-term approach has led to higher turnover than most smallgrowth peers. Its annual portfolio turnover range of 118%-227% the past five years is much higher than the median range of 59%-66%. The fund might struggle to maintain its fast-trading ways if assets hit the team’s $8 billion-$10 billion estimate of its small-cap capacity, which includes this strategy, Federated MDT Small Cap Core QISCX, and Federated MDT Small Cap Value. So far, the team is not near that limit, with around $2 billion across its small-cap charges. However, the portfolio’s number of holdings has varied from 150 to 250, suggesting some opportunities may be too illiquid and costly to pursue unless their potential alpha is spread out across more holdings. This could become more pronounced as the asset base grows

Performance – Volatile

The fund’s absolute and risk-adjusted returns lag the Russell 2000 Growth Index during lead manager Dan Mahr’s tenure. Since Mahr took over in August 2008, the Institutional shares’ 11.9% annualized return through April 2021 trailed the small-growth category’s 12.2% gain and the Russell 2000 Growth Index’s 12.2% rise. It has done so with more volatility than the benchmark, resulting in subpar riskadjusted performance measures, like the Sharpe ratio. Most of the fund’s underperformance has come during market turbulence. Mahr’s Aug. 31, 2008,start date means he took over amid the credit crisis, and the fund barely edged the benchmark through that period’s March 9, 2009, bottom. The fund lagged the bogy’s ensuing trough-to-peak (April 23, 2010) performance by 26.6 percentage points, annualized.

(Source: Morning star)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp

So there is no need to pay for cryogenic processing to extract NGLs from its wellhead gas volumes (saving it around $0.20 per thousand cubic feet). And because natural gas flows more easily out of a reservoir without liquids, the wells in this area are typically characterized by very high daily production rates.

As a result, the firm is among the lowest-cost natural gas producers in the Appalachia region, and this competitive advantage enables it to consistently deliver very strong returns on invested capital. But there is one catch: The Company’s acreage contains enough lucrative Lower Marcellus drilling opportunities to last until the late 2020s. Beyond that, the firm will have to rely on the overlying Upper Marcellus layer for growth, and such wells are typically up to 30% less productive. So it would be a mistake to think that all of the 3,000 or so potential drilling locations that the firm has access to will perform at the same level as the stellar wells it is drilling today. However, when the firm pivots to the Upper Marcellus, it will be able to reuse existing roads and pad sites, and as there are no well configuration constraints in this undeveloped interval, it could enhance returns by drilling longer laterals. As a result, we expect well costs to decrease enough to offset the dip in flow rates, leaving potential returns unchanged.

Our primary valuation tool is our net asset value forecast.

This bottom-up model projects cash flows from future drilling on a single-well basis and aggregates across the company’s inventory, discounting at the corporate weighted average cost of capital. Cash flows from current (base) production are included with a hyperbolic decline rate assumption. Our valuation also includes the mark-to-market present value of the company’s hedging program. We assume oil (West Texas Intermediate) prices in 2021 and 2022 will average $60 and $58 a barrel, respectively. In the same periods, natural gas (Henry Hub) prices are expected to average $3.20 per thousand cubic feet and $2.80/mcf. Terminal prices are defined by our long-term midcycle price estimates (currently $60/bbl Brent, $55/bbl WTI, and $2.80/mcf natural gas).

  • After the Cimarex merger, the firm will have ideal real estate in the lowest-cost oil and natural gas basins, amplifying returns and boosting product and geographic diversification.
  • By focusing on dry natural gas in the Marcellus, Cabot avoids NGL processing fees that would otherwise drive up production costs
  • The firm is one of the few oil and gas producers that can consistently generate excess returns on invested capital at midcycle commodity prices.
  • Cabot has less than 10 years’ worth of drilling opportunities targeting the prolific Lower Marcellus interval, and well performance could deteriorate when it is forced to pivot to the less productive Upper Marcellus.
  • The firm’s midcontinent assets have significantly higher break-evens, and expanded development in the region could dilute returns.

About Cabot Oil & Gas

Houston-based Cabot Oil & Gas is an independent exploration and production company with operations in Appalachia. At year-end 2020, Cabot’s proved reserves were 13.7 trillion cubic feet of equivalent, with net production that year of approximately 2,344 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. All of Cabot’s production is Marcellus dry natural gas.

(Source: Morning star)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Invesco Global Growth A

The world large-stock Morningstar Category split into three new groups based on investment style. This offering lands in the world large growth category. That’s appropriate, as it follows a growth-oriented strategy and its primary self-chosen benchmark is the MSCI All Country World Index Growth rather than the core MSCI ACWI, which it considers secondary. That said, the fund’s approach to growth investing is more restrained than those of many other funds in the new category. The managers belong to an Invesco international team that follows a doctrine they call EQV, with valuation being the “V,” and they take that aspect seriously. The fund’s most recent portfolio statistics put it nearly on the border with the blend portion of the Morningstar Style Box, while the average for the world large-growth average is much further into the growth area. Recently, that difference has benefited the fund’s relative ranking in the new category, as value and core have outperformed growth, but longer-term, the opposite is true.

This strategy has been proved on other offerings from the same team that focus exclusively on non-U.S. markets. This one hasn’t had the same level of success, partly owing to that once-deep U.S. underweighting, but also stock selection in that important market was subpar. Selection has improved recently, but the portion of that team focused on the big U.S. market remains just Amerman and two analysts.

The Fund’s Approach

The fund uses the same process that has provided solid long-term returns for a variety of Invesco international funds. It receives an Above Average Process rating. The managers look for sustainable earnings growth available at reasonable valuations and try to avoid companies with high debt levels. They put importance on the “quality” of earnings, looking for recurring revenue streams, strong cash flows, and solid operating margins. At one time, the managers of the fund’s U.S. portion used a different approach, but in mid-2013 the U.S. manager was incorporated into what had been the international team (which Invesco calls EQV, for earnings, quality, and valuation), so now the entire fund uses the EQV strategy. The valuation portion plays a significant role, leading this portfolio to be more moderate on the growth spectrum than most rivals in the new world large-growth category.

Before the U.S.-focused manager joined the EQV team, the fund heavily underweighted the U.S. side of the portfolio. That portion gradually increased; by March 31, 2021, it stood at 56%, close to the level of the MSCI ACWI Growth. The managers say they probably won’t allow such a large gap to recur, so that stock choices drive performance. Meanwhile, the fund’s small-cap weight rose after it absorbed a small-mid sibling in 2020. It now has a market cap around one third that of the index.

The Fund’s Portfolio

Matt Dennis and his comanagers took advantage of the early-2020 bear market to make many changes. Dennis and Ryan Amerman, who focuses on the U.S. side of this offering, say they added 19 new stocks to the portfolio in 2020’s first quarter, while selling 11. That’s a much higher level of activity than usual for this fund, as the managers prefer to hold on to stocks for longer periods of time, and since then activity has slowed down. Compared with its MSCI ACWI Growth benchmark, the fund has some noteworthy distinctions. Not surprisingly, given this fund’s moderate take on growth and attention to valuations, the tech-sector stake of 21% is about 10 percentage points lower than the indexes. But the managers do like a number of tech names, such as JD.com, which they say has become preferable to Alibaba BABA (though they still own the latter) because they see a greater potential for margin expansion, and Dropbox DBX, which they also added last year. Conversely, the fund’s stake in financial services is twice the index’s level, even though they are wary of big U.S. and European banks. Rather, they own investment-focused stocks such as LPL Financial LPLA in the U.S. and Fineco in Italy, along with payment-focused firms such as Visa V and PayPal PYPL. The managers say the portfolio’s substantial U.K. overweighting owes not to macro factors but to the appeal of a number of specific stocks.

The Fund’s Performance

This fund now lands in the new world large growth category. Because growth has outperformed value and core over most of the 10 years since Matt Dennis was named sole lead manager (until the past six months saw a reversal of that trend), and this fund is more moderate than most of its new peers, it has been at a disadvantage. Over the trailing 10-year period ended April 30, 2021, the 9.1% annualized return of its A shares lagged the world-large-growth category average by 2 percentage points and the MSCI ACWI Growth by 2.8 percentage points. It’s worth noting, however, that it essentially matched the return of the core MSCI ACWI over that time period, and beat the average of the new world-large-blend category by 0.8 points. (The fund’s portfolio currently lands barely on the growth side of the growth/blend border of the style box.) One hindrance has been the fund’s so-so performance in major downturns. It didn’t stand out in 2015’s third quarter, and its 13.5% loss in 2018 was more than 5 percentage points worse than the growth index and new growth category, From Jan. 21 through March 23, 2020 (the peak and trough of foreign indexes in that bear market), its return was again similar to the MSCI ACWI and the category norm.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Lazard International Strategic Equity

Lead manager Mark Little, based in London, joined Lazard in 1997 and has run this fund since its October 2005 inception. The other three managers have all served this strategy since at least 2009, meaning the group has worked together extensively. Lazard’s large and experienced international and emerging-markets equity teams provide the managers with excellent support.

The team’s all-cap relative-value strategy allows the managers to pursue opportunities wherever they see fit. Ideas sometimes come from quantitative screens, though the managers and analysts often uncover ideas themselves through their own research. Two of the four comanagers have accounting backgrounds, allowing the team to conduct thorough analysis on the attractiveness of a company based on their preferences. They search for companies with an alluring combination of valuation and profitability, though the portfolio’s profitability metrics fell in line with those of the MSCI EAFE benchmark as of March 2021.

As with many all-cap mandates, the resulting portfolio’s characteristics vary, and the managers have navigated well without becoming too dependent on any type of stock. The portfolio’s average market cap nearly tripled to $30.8 billion from $11.8 billion since 2013 as small- and midcap opportunities faded and large-cap stocks surged (though that tally is still lower than its median peer and benchmark). The managers aren’t afraid of making bets on specific countries either: The March 2021 portfolio had an 8% allocation to each of Canada and Ireland, while the benchmark had less than 1%

The Fund’s Approach

A flexible and well-executed approach earns this strategy an Above Average Process rating. Like other Lazard strategies, this one uses a malleable relative-value strategy that ranges across the market-cap spectrum. The team searches for companies with an attractive combination of valuation and profitability, a balance that landed the March 2021 portfolio squarely in the large-blend section of the Morningstar Style Box. However, the strategy’s flexibility also allows the portfolio’s style to drift to where the managers see opportunity, and it sat in the large-growth category for several years prior to 2019.

Quantitative screens sometimes produce ideas, though the managers and Lazard’s deep analyst bench often find ideas through their own research. Two of the four comanagers have accounting backgrounds, allowing the team to conduct nuanced analysis on the attractiveness of a company to see if it aligns with their preferences. The management team works with the analysts on top-down analysis (like economic and political situations) to supplement its fundamental research as well. If the managers decide to invest, they usually replace an existing holding, resulting in a portfolio that consistently holds between 65 and 75 stocks.

The Fund’s Portfolio

While the portfolio invested 40% of its assets in mid-cap stocks in 2013, manager Michael Bennett notes that appealing small- and mid-cap stocks have been more difficult to find in recent years. As a result, the portfolio’s stake in mid-caps had fallen to 12% by March 2021 while positions in large- and giant-cap companies rose. The portfolio’s average market cap tripled to $35 billion from $11.8 billion over that time, though it’s still lower than its median foreign large-blend peer and MSCI EAFE benchmark. Despite the managers’ emphases on financial health and valuation, the portfolio’s profitability metrics fall in line with those of the benchmark and median peer while price metrics are marginally higher.

The portfolio’s style has drifted toward the large-blend category from large growth in recent years, though risk factor exposures have always tended to align closely with the core-oriented benchmark. The managers want stock selection to drive returns, but meaningful sector bets are common, such as the 5-percentage-point underweighting in tech and a similar-size overweighting in industrials in the March 2021 portfolio. Investors here should also expect meaningful country bets, such as the 13-percentage-point underweighting in Japanese stocks in March and 8-percentagepoint over-weightings to Canadian and Irish stocks that month.

The Fund’s Performance

This strategy performed poorly in early 2020’s pandemic-related sell-off. It lost 35.5% from Jan. 22 through March 23, worse than the MSCI EAFE benchmark’s 33.7% decline. Investments in several out-of-benchmark Canadian companies dragged on returns, such as National Bank of Canada and Suncor Energy, which respectively suffered as both interest rates and oil prices plummeted. The strategy’s positions in several air-travel stocks also hurt, such as Air France, Airbus, and Canadian manufacturer CAE Inc. CAE.

Over longer periods, however, performance has been more impressive. From its October 2005 inception through April 2021, the strategy’s institutional shares’ 7.1% annualized return outpaced its foreign large-blend Morningstar Category’s 5.0% and benchmark’s 5.2%. Furthermore, it outperformed without excess volatility, resulting in superior risk-adjusted metrics (such as the Sharpe ratio) over that time frame. The strategy typically wins by shielding capital in sell-offs, capturing only 92% of the index’s drawdowns since inception. It performed well in 2018, a challenging year for international equities, and during the 2007-09 global financial crisis, though as noted it failed to provide a meaningful cushion in early 2020. While it can outperform in bull markets, such as that of 2012-13, its performance in rallies tends to be middling.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.