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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Air Product’s Fiscal Q3 Results & Unveils Updated Capital Deployment Plan

public industrial gas companies have consistently delivered lucrative returns because of their economic moats. Demand for industrial gases is strongly correlated to industrial production. As such, organic revenue growth will largely depend on global economic conditions. Since Seifi Ghasemi was appointed CEO in 2014, new management has launched several initiatives that drastically improved Air Products’ profitability, raising EBITDA margins by over 1,500 basis points.  Air Products is poised for rapid growth over the next few years due to its 10-year capital allocation plan. The industrial gas firm aims to deploy over $30 billion during the decade from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2027 and has already either spent or committed roughly $18 billion of that amount.

Financial Strength 

Management has indicated that maintaining an investment-grade credit rating is a priority. The company has used proceeds from its divestments of noncore operations (including the spin-off of its electronic materials division as Versum Materials in 2016 and the sale of its specialty additives business to Evonik in 2017) to reduce debt and fuel investment.The company held roughly $8 billion of gross debt as of Dec. 31, 2020, compared with $6.2 billion in cash and short-term investments. Liquidity includes an undrawn $2.5 billion multicurrency revolving credit facility, which is also used to support a commercial paper program. 

Narrow-moat rated Air Products reported mixed fiscal third quarter results, as its sales of $2,605 million beat the FactSet consensus estimate of $2,498 million, but adjusted EPS of $2.31 fell $0.05 short of expectations. The industrial gas firm also lowered the top end of its full-year fiscal 2021 adjusted EPS guidance range by a nickel, from $8.95-$9.10 to $8.95-$9.05. Fiscal third-quarter sales increased 26% year over year and 4% sequentially, driven by a continued recovery in the firm’s end markets.

Air Products unveiled its updated capital deployment plan and aims to deploy over $30 billion during the decade from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2027. The company has already either spent or committed roughly $17.8 billion of that amount. Management said on the earnings call that of the remaining $12.2 billion, it expects to invest roughly $5 billion to support the existing business and the remainder in large growth projects, focusing on opportunities in gasification, green hydrogen, and carbon capture.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Air Products is poised for rapid growth due to business opportunities that drive its ambitious $30 billion capital allocation plan.
  • After acquiring Shell’s and GE’s gasification businesses in 2018, Air Products is the global leader in this segment and is poised to benefit from growing coal gasification in China and India.
  • The company’s focus on on-site investments will result in a derisked portfolio with more stable cash flows.

Company Profile 

Since its founding in 1940, Air Products has become one of the leading industrial gas suppliers globally, with operations in 50 countries and 19,000 employees. The company is the largest supplier of hydrogen and helium in the world. It has a unique portfolio serving customers in a number of industries, including chemicals, energy, healthcare, metals, and electronics. Air Products generated $8.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2020.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Netwealth remains overvalued yet well positioned

fintech icon on abstract financial technology background represent Blockchain and Fintech Investment Financial Internet Technology Concept.

The company charges for its software based on the value of funds under management on its platform, comprising over 95% of group revenue, in addition to providing Netwealth-branded investment products, which are managed by third-party investment managers.

Netwealth has exploited the bureaucracy and lethargy of the relatively small number of large and dominant Australian financial services firms to develop a superior investment administration platform that has quickly increased funds under administration (FUA). The company has benefited from regulatory change such as the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms, which require financial advisors to act in their clients’ best interests. It also got the advantage of banning of trail commission fees previously paid by investment administration platforms and investment advisors for recommending their products. Despite being the largest of the independent investment platforms, Netwealth has a number of independent platform competitors such as Hub 24 and Praemium.

Financial Strength:

The service-based and capital-light business model of Netwealth has minimum requirement for debt or equity capital, which keeps it in good financial health. The company expenses, rather than capitalises, research and development costs, which results in strong cash conversion. This means that most operating cash flow is available for dividend payments.

Funds under management and administration (FUMA) increased by 52% in fiscal 2021, the fee rate, or revenue divided by FUMA, fell by 23% due to pricing pressure, resulting in revenue growth of 17%. The PE ratio of Netwealth, in 2021, is as high as 78.0, which makes it overvalued.

From a balance sheet perspective, Netwealth remains in excellent shape, with net cash balance of AUD 81 million at the end of fiscal year 2021 and a consistent net cash balance since listing on the ASX in 2017.

Bulls Say:

Netwealth has only a small proportion of the investment administration market, at around 4%, but has won market share quickly, and significant growth potential remains.

Netwealth has a low fixed-cost base which means operating leverage is high and further strong revenue growth should be amplified at the EPS level. A high single digit CAGR increase in investment administration platform industry is expected which would provide a strong underlying tailwind for Netwealth.

Company Profile:

Netwealth provides cloud-based investment administration software as a service, or SaaS, in Australia via its proprietary platform. Netwealth’s platform provides portfolio administration, investment management tools, and investment and managed account services to financial intermediaries and directly to clients. The company charges SaaS fees based on funds under management on its platform. Netwealth also offers Netwealth-branded investment products on its platform which are managed by third-party investment managers.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Berkshire’s Equities in Q2; Apple Remains Top Stock

selling some $2.1 billion worth of stock while also acquiring a little over $1 billion of equities. Based on the insurer’s recent 13- F filing, Berkshire trimmed positions in US Bancorp and Chevron, and sold off more than 10% of the investment portfolio’s stakes in Abbvie (selling 2.3 million shares or 10.2% of its holdings), General Motors (7.0 million shares or 10.4% of its holdings), Bristol-Myers Squibb (4.7 million shares or 15.3% of its holdings), and Marsh & McLennan (1.1 million shares or 20.6% of its holdings). Berkshire also disposed of meaningful amounts of Merck (8.7 million shares, or 48.8% of its holdings) and Liberty Global Cl C shares (5.5 million shares, or 74.5% of its holdings), while completely eliminating the firm’s holdings in Liberty Global Cl A, Biogen, and Axalta Coating Systems.

As for the purchases, almost all of them involved existing holdings as Berkshire added to stakes in Kroger (picking up 10.7 million shares and increasing its position by 21.0%), Aon (around 300,000 shares and increasing its position by 7.3%), and Restoration Hardware (35,500 shares for a 2.0% increase in the company’s holdings). Berkshire had originated stakes in the pharmaceuticals–AbbVie, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck–as well as the insurance brokers—Marsh & McLennan and Aon–in just the past year and a half, but many of these stocks have seen marked gains in just the past few quarters, allowing the insurer’s main managers of many of these smaller holdings (relative to the portfolio overall)–CEO Warren Buffett’s two lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler–to take some profit off the table. Even so, the firm ended the second quarter with $293.0 billion of reportable equity holdings.

Berkshire’s top 5 positions of Apple (41.5%), Bank of America (14.2%), American Express (8.6%),Coca-Cola (7.4%), and Kraft Heinz (4.5%), accounted for 76.2% of the insurer’s 13-F equity portfolio, and its top 10 holdings, which included Moody’s (3.1%), Verizon Communications (3.0%), US Bancorp (2.5%), DaVita (1.5%), and Charter Communications (1.3%), accounted for 87.5%. Given the changes in Berkshire’s 13-F portfolio during the second quarter, the financial services sector now accounts for 28.7% of the portfolio (up from 28.5% at the end of March 2021), with technology stocks at 43.2% (up from 41.8%), and consumer defensive names decreasing to 12.8% (from 13.3%).

Company Profile 

Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company with a wide array of subsidiaries engaged in diverse activities. The firm’s core business segment is insurance, run primarily through Geico, Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group and Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group. Berkshire has used the excess cash thrown off from these and its other operations over the years to acquire Burlington Northern Santa Fe (railroad), Berkshire Hathaway Energy (utilities and energy distributors), and the firms that make up its manufacturing, service, and retailing operations (which include five of Berkshire’s largest noninsurance pretax earnings generators: Precision Castparts, Lubrizol, Clayton Homes, Marmon and IMC/ISCAR). The conglomerate is unique in that it is run on a completely decentralized basis. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Property

HPI Reports Solid Fiscal 2021; Recent Acquisitions to Drive Stronger Growth in 2022

Elderly woman holding a small house in her hands

Pubs are primarily in Queensland, leased almost exclusively to Queensland Venue Co, a joint venture between subsidiaries of supermarket giant Coles and Australian Venue Company, or AVC. A key attraction of Hotel Property is favourable lease terms that provide for predictable above-inflation rental income from long-term leases.HPI also benefits from low interest rates, population growth and restrictive liquor licensing laws in Queensland. Close to 90% of Hotel Property’s freehold properties are in Queensland, predominantly pubs that are leased to QVC. The joint venture leases generate about 90% of Hotel Property’s rental income. This risk has been substantially alleviated due renewal of most leases for an extended 10 to 15-year period. Key near term risk is whether the corona virus threatens the viability of the tenant, given AVC is highly geared. Longer term risks include a potential changes in liquor and gambling laws making pub licences less valuable 

Hotel Property Investments, or HPI, reported a solid fiscal 2021 result. Adjusted funds from operations rose 7% to AUD 32.5 million on 2.5% like-for-like rental increases and acquisitions. Weighted average lease expiry remains long at 10.8 years. This suggests revenue is highly defensive, but have lingering concerns about the financial health of the key tenants, Queensland Venue Company and Australian Venue Company, with ongoing threat of corona virus lockdowns and social distancing requirements. Net tangible assets increased 10% to AUD 3.30 per security as the average capitalisation rate tightened 20 basis points to 5.9% amid the ongoing low interest rate environment. HPI is in reasonable financial health. Debt to assets was 38% in fiscal 2021, towards the bottom of management’s 35% to 45% target range

HPI made nine acquisitions in regional Queensland in fiscal 2021, worth AUD 96 million. We like the strategy of teaming up with the key tenant to take over pubs and separate the operations from the property, as we think supporting the tenant with capital contributions to aid its growth strategy will lead to better rental yields and longer lease terms than buying pub properties on its own. The main drawbacks are that acquisitions have been of lower quality than its existing pubs and exposure to QVC/AVC increases. Of HPI’s 54 properties, 49 are leased to QVC/AVC.

Financial strength

Financial Strength Hotel Property is in sound financial health, with gearing (debt less cash/total assets less cash) of about 38% as at June 2021, well below covenant gearing of 60% and slightly below its own target gearing of between 35% and 45%. It’s also comfortably meeting its interest cover covenant of 1.5 times, with current interest cover (earnings before interest and tax/interest expense) of above 3.9 times. Debt maturity profile is fairly long at 5.7 years. The recent precipitous fall in interest rates should alleviate interest costs because about 40% of its debt is on floating rates.

        Bulls Says

  • Hotel Property Investments’ distribution yield is higher than most Australian REIT peers, supported by most contracted annual rental increases averaging the lesser of 2 times CPI or 4%.
  • Rental income is underpinned by long lease terms.
  • Liquor and most gaming licenses are retained by Hotel Property when leases expire. This is a contingent asset that should be a draw-card for potential pub tenants in the absence of adverse regulatory changes.

Company Profile

Hotel Property Investments is an Australian REIT with a portfolio of freehold pub properties primarily in Queensland. Its portfolio is almost exclusively leased to Queensland Venue Company on triple-net long-term leases where the tenant is responsible for outgoings (except land tax in Queensland), resulting in relatively low maintenance expenses. Most leases also provide for annual rental increases typically at the lower of 4% or two times the average of the last five years consumer price index

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

China Merchants Bank’s First-Half Results Posted Strong Growth in Fee Income

China Merchants Bank stands out thanks to its leading position in retail banking business and enviable funding costs advantage, which delivers one of the strongest returns on assets among peers. We believe strong returns and competitive advantages endow it with a narrow economic moat.

CMB’s long time focus on customer-oriented strategy rewards the bank a premium customer base and a strong brand reputation as a wealth manager. The bank is progressing well with its digital customer acquisition strategy via the online channel that is seeing strong growth in the number of customers in the upper-middle class and their assets under management, or AUM. The bank enjoys one of the highest user penetration rates in the industry. CMB mobile application contributed 98% of total wealth management customers and 84% of transactions in the first half of 2021.

China Merchants Bank’s or CMB’s first-half results reported strong year-on-year growth in both total revenue and net profit at 14% and 23%, respectively. Positives include stable cost/income ratio and lower-than-expected credit costs in the second quarter, along with strong revenue growth and continuous improvement in credit quality as well as substantial customer base and strength in fee-based business. Fee income growth further expanded to 24% year on year, led by 40% and 17% growth in agency sales of financial products and of custody services. These two categories accounted for over 55% of total fee income. Credit card-related and credit business related fee income remained weak at zero and 5% growth, but this is reflective of weak service consumptions due to COVID-19 prevention and control measures.

Financial Strength

The bank boasts stable funding, as customer deposits represent 74% of total liabilities. CMB has improved its capital strength over the past three years: The equity/assets ratio increased to 8.7% by 2020, thanks to improving capital efficiency. Its core Tier 1 capital ratio and capital adequacy ratio reached 12.3% and 16.5%, respectively, by 2020. CMB has recorded a healthy capital position and strong returns, as evidenced by an average of over 16% return on equity over the past five years.

Bulls Say

  • CMB expects to add 15 million, or 10% of its 160 million customer pool, over the next three years. We expect this to support its industry-leading fee income growth and funding costs in the future.
  • With monthly active users reaching over 105 million, CMB’s two mobile applications were among the most popular banking app in China.
  • CMB’s retail banking business boasts the largest retail AUM per customer, which is more than two times that of its closest competitors in China.

Company Profile

With headquarters in Shenzhen, China Merchants Bank was founded in 1987. The bank is China’s seventh-largest listed bank by assets, with the largest distribution network among China’s joint-stock banks. CMB’s network is expanding rapidly. Its outlets are located mainly in China’s more developed areas, such as the Pearl River and Yangtze River deltas. The firm has 18% and 82% of its shares listed on the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges, respectively. It has no foreign strategic investors. China Merchants Group is its largest shareholder, with a 30% stake. Retail banking, corporate banking and wholesale banking accounted for 52%, 45%, and 3% of total profit before tax, respectively, and 54%, 42%, and 4% of total revenue in 20220.

 (Source: Morning Star)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Investors Overlooking Occidental’s long term Cash Generation Potential

fair value is estimated to $37 per share, from $32. The increase primarily reflects a reduced cost of capital assumption. Given how quickly the firm is deleveraging it is appropriate to penalize the firm with an above average cost of debt.

The preoccupation with near-term capital returns has driven investors away from Occidental. The firm is still coping with uncomfortable leverage ratios following the ill-timed 2019 acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, making debt reduction the only prudent use of its excess cash. The market is overlooking the firm’s relatively modest base decline. 

Oxy has a diversified portfolio, with oil and gas contributions from non-shale assets in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to complement its unconventional operations in the Permian Basin and the DJ Basin. So it can more easily sustain its production than shale pure plays that must continually invest in new drilling to offset steep declines from existing wells.

Company’s performance

The firm’s enhanced oil recovery operations further reduces the base decline. The firm also generates stable cash flows from its extensive midstream and chemical segments. As a result, the firm can hold its volumes flat with a long term reinvestment rate of about 35%. And when the firm reaches its target debt level, which it can realistically do in 6 months from now, given how quickly it is generating excess cash, then that very low reinvestment rate should leave plenty of free cash to distribute. The three firms we highlighted earlier–Pioneer, Devon, and EOG–have 2025 discretionary cash flow yields of about 10% at current prices. 

Company’s Future Outlook

That means the market is baking in long-term dividend yields of around 5%, assuming these firms plan to return half of their surplus cash. In contrast, Oxy’s discretionary cash flow yields in 2025, after accounting for all capital spending and preferred dividends, is over 20% at the current price. This underscores our view that shares are undervalued.

Company Profile

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) is an independent exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Latin America, and the Middle East. At the end of 2020, the company reported net proved reserves of 2.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 1,306 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020 at a ratio of 74% oil and natural gas liquids and 26% natural gas.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

SBI Mutual Fund has launched Balanced Advantage Fund

The SBI balanced Advantage fund’s investment objective is to deliver long-term capital appreciation and income through a dynamic mix of equity and debt investments. The CRISIL Hybrid 50+50 – Moderate Index TRI would be tracked by SBI Balanced Advantage Fund.

The Balanced Advantage Fund would invest in equities and fixed income securities based on a number of factors, including valuations, earnings drivers, and sentiment indicators.

The SBI Balanced Advantage fund will work in the following manner

  1. Asset Allocation: The Fund Manager will decide on the asset allocation between equity and debt based on a variety of factors including sentiment indicators, valuations, and earning drivers.
  1. Quantitative Framework: Our investment strategy is based on a quantitative framework that determines how we invest based on market capitalization, investing style (value, growth, or quality) and sector preference.
  1. Stock/Security Selection: The equity portfolios are managed under the discretion of fund managers and portfolios are based on the analyst team’s high conviction views and the discretion of the Fund Manager. There is duration management to generate alpha across the yield curve. The portfolio is built in such a way that alpha is generated through equity while stability is sought through debt.

The scheme would invest in equities and equity-related products for a minimum of 0% and up to a maximum of 100% and the risk profile for the same would be high. It will also invest in debt securities (including securitized debt) and money market instruments, with a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 100% and the risk profile for the same would be low to medium and 0% to 10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs –the risk profile for the same is medium to high  

During the NFO period, the minimum application amount is Rs 5,000, with subsequent amounts in multiples of Rs 1. Dinesh Balachandran and Gaurav Mehta will handle the equity element of the SBI Balanced Advantage Fund, Dinesh Ahuja will manage the debt portion and Mohit Jain will manage the international investments.

The SBI Balanced mutual fund is suited for the following investor:

  • Investors looking for long-term Wealth Creation 
  • Investors looking for a Dynamic solution for the right mix of Debt & Equity
  •  Risk-averse Equity Investors with minimum 3 years+ of Investment Horizon

 (Source: www.sbimf.com)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
IPO Watch

Strong Market Debut of Devyani International at 57% premium over issue price

At the issue price, the company commanded a market capitalisation of Rs 10,823 crore and was valued at an EV/ EBITDA of 62.39.

It was subscribed 116.71 times, with qualified institutional buyer (QIB) category being subscribed 95.27 times, non-institutional investors 213.06 times, and retail individual investors 39.51 times. 

On 16th August 2021, Monday, the shares of Devyani International got listed on BSE at Rs. 141 at 56.66 per cent premium and on NSE, it got debuted at Rs. 140.90, up by 56.55 per cent.

In FY21, Devyani’s business from the core brands (India & Internationally) contributed 94.19 per cent to its revenues from operations. Delivery sales represented 70.20 per cent of revenues in FY21 in comparison to 51.15 per cent in FY20.

The company opened 40-50 stores across its brands in the last 2-3 quarters and expects to sustain this momentum. It also opened 43 stores in June quarter and 109 stores across core brands in the second half of FY21.

Company Profile

Devyani International is an associate company of RJ Corp, which is the largest bottling partner of food and beverages (F&B) major PepsiCo. It has interests in the Indian retail F&B sector. The company is the largest franchisee of Yum Brands, operating core brands such as Pizza Hut, KFC, Costa Coffee. The company operates 284 KFC stores, 317 Pizza Hut stores, and 44 Costa Coffee stores in India as of June 30, 2021. The company also owns brands such as Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli and Ckrussh Juice Bar and has operations in Nigeria and Nepal.

(Source: Economic Times, Financial Express)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Post Plans Reduce its Stake in BellRing Brands as It Emerges from the Pandemic

As the cereal category has come under pressure, the firm diversified its revenue base by entering categories that were driving the legacy business’ deterioration, such as eggs and protein-based nutritional products. While these actions have stabilized the top line, it is believed a competitive edge remains elusive.

The cereal business (42% of fiscal 2020 revenue) has been declining (outside of the pandemic) as consumers have shifted away from processed, high-sugar, high-carbohydrate fare. Post’s cereal business is very profitable, with EBITDA margins around mid-20% and low-30% for the U.S. and European businesses, respectively. The refrigerated segments (41%, with 24% food service and 17% retail) consist primarily of egg and potato products. As a result, this business is relatively low margin (10%-12%) and does not offer the firm a competitive advantage, in our view. While 2020 was challenging for food service, the segment should recover in 2021 with the dissemination of vaccines.

Post holds a majority stake in BellRing Brands (17%), which makes protein shakes, bars, and powders. The business has realized low-double-digit growth and attractive operating margins (17%-18%). Post recently announced plans to reduce its stake in BellRing from 71% to no more than 20% in the first half of calendar 2022, which will undoubtedly result in slower sales growth for Post. 

Financial Strength

Post has a unique capital allocation strategy, preferring to carry a heavier debt load than most packaged food peers. Post’s legacy domestic cereal business generates significant free cash flow (about 12% of revenue, above the 10% peer average), although after acquiring the refrigerated foods, BellRing, and private brands businesses, this metric fell to just over a 6% average between 2013 and 2018. Post has no intention to initiate a dividend. It is increasing FVE for Post to $114 per share from $110 to account for better than expected third-quarter sales, partially offset by a higher U.S. tax rate beginning in 2022. The company’s valuation implies a 2022 price/adjusted earnings of 21 times.

Bull Says

  • Post’s Premier Protein brand is well positioned in the protein shake category, an attractive, high-growth market with outsize margins.
  • The refrigerated foods segment, nearly half of Post’s business, is benefiting from consumers’ evolving preference for fresh, unprocessed high-protein eggs, and fresh and convenient side dish options.
  • Although growth in the cereal business has been stagnant, it reports attractive profits and cash flows and has a lucrative opportunity with Premier Protein co-branded cereal

Company Profile

Post Holdings Inc (NYSE: POST) is a packaged food company that primarily operates in North America and Europe. For fiscal 2020, 42% of the company’s revenue came from cereal, with brands such as Honeycomb, Grape-Nuts, Shredded Wheat, Pebbles, Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, Weetabix, and Alpen. Refrigerated food made up 41% of 2020 revenue and services the retail (17% of company sales) and food-service channels (24%), providing value-added egg and potato products, prepared side dishes, cheese, and sausage under brands Bob Evans and Simply Potatoes. The stake in BellRing Brands makes up the remaining 17% of revenue, with protein-based shakes, powders, and bars that sell under the Premier Protein, Power Bar, and Dymatize brands, but Post is reducing this holding to a minority position in calendar 2022.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Tesla Shares Crash as NHTSA Opens Autopilot Investigation; Shares are Slightly Overvalued

Electronic digital interface at a stock exchange or bourse showing the fluctuating prices of stocks and shares on the markets charting their performance

an investigation into Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) autopilot software following 11 crashes from January 2018 through July 2021 where the software was engaged. Having reviewed the NHTSA report, the incidents highlight the need for Tesla to continue to improve its autonomous software before the company is likely to see a large revenue increase from its subscription-based full self-driving software. This is in line with our view that Tesla’s autonomous software will not contribute a large portion of revenue in the near term. While the outcome of the investigation is uncertain, the agency is investigating the software, rather than any hardware on a Tesla. 

Tesla shares were down around 5% at the time of writing. At current prices, Tesla shares are slightly overvalued with the stock trading in 3-star territory but roughly 20% above our fair value estimate. Accordingly, we reiterate our very high uncertainty rating for Tesla.

In all 11 crashes, a Tesla vehicle struck one or more vehicles at a first-responder scene. Most of the incidents took place after dark, where the crash scenes included typical control measures such as first-responder vehicle lights, flares, an illuminated arrow board, and road cones. While the software can take over many parts of driving features for more normal highway conditions, first-responder scenes represent a situation where drivers should likely disengage the software when approaching the scene and resume full manual control of the vehicle.

Company’s Future Outlook

As a result, the most likely outcome will include an over-the air software update, which Tesla already regularly does, and additional warnings about the limitations of driving with autopilot. The company’s Outlook intact at $570 per share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating for Tesla.

Company Profile

Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) founded in 2003 and based in Palo Alto, California, is a vertically integrated sustainable energy company that also aims to transition the world to electric mobility by making electric vehicles. The company sells solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation plus batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities. Tesla has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and mid-size sedans and crossover SUVs. The company also plans to begin selling more affordable sedans and small SUVs, a light-truck, semi-truck, and a sports car. Global deliveries in 2020 were roughly 500,000 units.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.