as expected with the company reporting strong performance from the Vision Fund in line with stock market rises and generally strong recent IPOs.
Softbank fair value estimate of JPY 9200 is mainly due to a 4% downgrade in our valuation for Alibaba following its June quarter result, offset by increased valuation for Vision Fund 2 in line with valuation improvement over the quarter. The stock price is now below our fair value estimate with the main difference likely to be due to our valuation of Alibaba which is around 55% above the current stock price.
The Vision Funds and Latin America Fund held 221 investments at the end of June 2021. SFV1 reported a net realized gain of JPY 310 billion due mainly to selling some shares in Door Dash, Uber, and Guardant Health. The net unrealized gain of JPY 3.5 billion was much lower with strong share price performances of DiDi and Door Dash partially offset by weaker share price performance of some listed portfolio companies, particularly Coupang. In terms of sectors, the investments are also well diversified with 28% in consumer, 20% in transportation, 17% in logistics, and 10% in frontier tech 10%, 7% in proptech, 7% in fintech, and 3% in health tech.
Company’s Future Outlook
Softbank’s 40.2%-owned domestic telecom business, Softbank Corp, reported a fourth-quarter result in line with our estimates with revenue increasing by 0.7%, operating income increasing by 4.1% and net profit down 0.8%. Management estimated the first-quarter mobile price cuts negatively impacted the first quarter by around JPY 10 billion with a JPY 70 billion impact factored into unchanged full-year fiscal 2021 guidance for revenue of JPY 5.5 trillion (5.7% growth), operating income of JPY 975 billion (0.4% growth), and net income of JPY 500 billion (1.8% growth). A further price cut has been introduced for low end customers in July which looks likely to continue to put pressure on mobile pricing. The fair value estimated of JPY 1450 per share which is slightly below where the stock is trading.
Company Profile
Softbank Group Corporation’s (JPY: 9984) is a Japan-based telecom and e-commerce conglomerate that has expanded mainly through acquisitions, and its key assets include a 28% stake in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba and a 40% owned mobile and fixed broadband telecom operator business in Japan. It also owns 75% of semiconductor chip designer ARM Holdings although has agreed to sell this and is waiting on regulatory approvals, and has a vast portfolio of mainly Internet- and e-commerce-focused early stage investments. It is also general partner of the $100 billion Softbank Vision Fund 1 and sole investor in Softbank Vision Fund 2, both of which primarily invest in pre-IPO Internet companies.
(Source: Morningstar)
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