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Dividend Stocks Expert Insights

Coach’s Enduring Popularity Provides Stability as Tapestry Works Through Its Acceleration Program

Due to the pandemic, all three of Tapestry’s brands suffered sales and operating profit declines in parts of the last two fiscal years, but results have been improving rapidly as it implements its three-year Acceleration Program strategy to cut costs and improve margins. 

Coach struggled with excessive distribution and competition in the past, but we think Tapestry has turned it around through store closures, restrictions on discounting, and increased e-commerce, which has grown by triple-digit percentages during the pandemic. Further, we expect growth in complementary categories like footwear and fashion. China to be a key growth region for Coach as Chinese consumers will compose 46% of the worldwide luxury goods spending in 2025, according to Bain & Company. We forecast Coach’s greater China sales will increase to nearly $1.5 billion in fiscal 2031 (24% of sales) from $931 million in fiscal 2021 (22% of sales). 

The acquisitions of Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman don’t contribute to Tapestry’s moat. Spade was a natural fit for Coach as both generate most of their sales from Asia-sourced handbags. However, Spade merchandise is priced lower than Coach and lacks its international reach. Still, we think Spade can grow in both North America and Asia through store openings and new products, such as shoes (currently licensed).As for Stuart Weitzman, while its women’s shoes achieve luxury price points, we view it as a niche brand (less than $300 million in fiscal 2021 sales) with fashion risk. Stuart Weitzman is struggling so much that Tapestry recently wrote off all the goodwill and intangibles related to its purchase and is downsizing its store base.

Financial Strength

As of the end of June 2021, Tapestry was in a net cash position, with total debt of $1.6 billion and $2 billion in cash and equivalents. Some (33.5% as of the end of fiscal 2021) of the cash is held outside of the U.S. but may be repatriated. Tapestry’s earliest debt maturity occurs in 2022, when $400 million in 3.0% notes come due. Tapestry suspended share repurchases and dividends to maintain liquidity during the pandemic but has resumed both in fiscal 2022. We forecast the firm will generate more than $5.3 billion in free cash flow to equity over the next five years, most of which will be returned to shareholders. Tapestry has limited the amount of cash returned to shareholders since 2015 due to the acquisitions of Stuart Weitzman and Kate Spade and debt covenants. However, Tapestry approved a new $1.0 billion buyback program in May 2019, a clear signal it will resume significant buybacks. Further, we forecast Tapestry will pay out roughly 38% of earnings over the next 10 years as dividends. Finally, we expect Tapestry’s capital expenditures will be relatively high on store openings, remodels, and e-commerce investments. 

Bulls Say

  • Coach is one of the share leaders in the profitable categories of handbags and other leather goods. Coach bags achieve better pricing than many others, allowing for gross margins around 70%. 
  • Coach is a popular brand among Chinese consumers and has room for growth. Bain & Company estimates these consumers will compose 46% of worldwide luxury good spending in 2025, up from 33% in 2018. 
  • Tapestry unveiled a new strategic plan in August 2020 called the Acceleration Program to reduce operating expenses by about 10%, enhance e-commerce, and close low-performing stores.

Company Profile

Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman are the fashion and accessory brands that comprise Tapestry. The firm’s products are sold through about 1,400 company-operated stores, wholesale channels, and e-commerce in North America (62% of fiscal 2021 sales), Europe, Asia (33% of fiscal 2021 sales), and elsewhere. Coach (74% of fiscal 2021 sales) is best known for affordable luxury leather products. Kate Spade (21% of fiscal 2021 sales) is known for colorful patterns and graphics. Women’s handbags and accessories produced 70% of Tapestry’s sales in fiscal 2021. Stuart Weitzman, Tapestry’s smallest brand, generates nearly all (99%) of its revenue from women’s footwear.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Increasing Our Fair Value Estimate for LPL Financial to $161

Advisors on LPL’s platform serve approximately 4% of wealth management assets in the United States. Through its ClientWorks portal, the company offers a one-stop solution for advisors that incorporates billing, account analytics, research, trading, and relationship-management tools. LPL aims to offer services to all advisors regardless of business model.

Production retention, which measures the percentage of advisor-generated revenue maintained from the previous year, has recently been over 95%. Recently, LPL has been making moves to improve its value proposition to advisors, with the rollout of a new online portal and the purchase, and subsequent integration, of Advisory World. Acquisitions of advisor networks have also been a source of growth, with the 2017 acquisition of NPH for $325 million and the wealth management business of Waddell & Reed in 2021 for $300 million showing that LPL is willing and able to buy growth outright when it makes sense to do so. 

Financial Strength

LPL’s financial strength is adequate. At the end of 2020, the company had $2.3 billion of long-term debt. With a debt/equity ratio of about 1.8 times, the company is fairly leveraged. The company also has about $1.9 billion of goodwill and intangibles on its balance sheet, so has no tangible equity. The bulk of its debt, about $1.4 billion, will come due in 2024, with the rest due the following year. With a debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of around 2.5 times, LPL should have sufficient cash to meet these financial obligations.LPL has paid a consistent $0.25 quarterly dividend since first-quarter 2015. 

Our fair value estimate correlates to a price/forward earnings multiple of 22 times and an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 12.5 times. Positive adjustments to our fair value estimate include $6.50 from earnings since our previous valuation update, $20.50 from recent growth in client assets and higher projected growth in client assets, $10.50 from increasing the growth rate and assumed returns on capital after year 10 in our model, and $3.50 of miscellaneous adjustments.

Bulls Say’s

  • LPL has been able to weather the storm of a changing industry, and expanding margins suggest that its business model remains intact.
  • The company has been moving toward more recurring revenue, such as advisory fees and revenue from client cash balances, which the market may reward.
  • LPL has the resources to recruit aggressively, and improvements in feedback receptiveness should help it maintain strong retention rates.

Company Profile 

LPL Financial Holdings is an independent broker/dealer that provides a platform of proprietary technology, brokerage, and investment advisory services to financial advisors and institutions. The company also provides financial advisors licensed with insurance companies customized clearing services, advisory platforms, and technology solutions. LPL provides a range of services through its subsidiaries. Private Trust supplies trust administration, investment management oversight, and custodial services for estates and families; Independent Advisers Group offers investment advisory solutions to insurance companies; and LPL Insurance Associates operates as a brokerage general agency that offers life, long-term care, and disability insurance sales and services.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Twitter to Sell MoPub for $1.05 Billion; Maintaining FVE; Shares Fairly Valued

According to the firm, MoPub generated $188 million in revenue in 2020 (5% of total revenue), which makes this sale equivalent to 5.3 times revenue. Twitter is trading at more than 7 times our 2022 revenue estimate, excluding MoPub.

Company’s Future Outlook

Twitter said it plans to focus more on providing advertising opportunities for direct response marketers in addition to small- and medium-sized businesses. We think that this deal was also partially driven by questions surrounding how Apple’s IDFA and user privacy policies will impact in-app advertising. However, Twitter had also stated that some of its app ad offerings were already integrated with Apple’s SKAdNetwork that helps track and measure ads. Without MoPub, we expect slightly lower top-line growth and less margin expansion, both of which will not have a material effect on our $58 fair value estimate for the firm.

Twitter’s initial investment in MoPub  when it purchased the company in 2013 for only $350 million. However, cash received from this transaction likely will be offset by the $809.5 million charge that Twitter will recognize in the third quarter 2021 as the firm settled a case involving some of its investors who accused the firm of misleading them by providing lofty expectations of user count and engagement at an analyst day event in 2014. The event took place when Dick Costolo was at the helm at Twitter.

Company Profile 

Twitter is an open distribution platform for and a conversational platform around short-form text (a maximum of 280 characters), image, and video content. Its users can create different social networks based on their interests, thereby creating an interest graph. Many prominent celebrities and public figures have Twitter accounts. Twitter generates revenue from advertising (90%) and licensing the user data that it compiles (10%).

Source: (Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Supermarket Food Inflation Likely To Stage a Comeback in Fiscal 2022

We anticipate Coles and Woolworths to report food price deflation continued in the September quarter of 2021. However, we expect prices to reflate in the December quarter with food inflation to average 1.5% in fiscal 2022. We forecast higher prices to support the operating margins of supermarket operators, offsetting weak sales growth post-lockdowns. 

Morningstar’s proprietary Little Shopping Basket indicates prices were flat at Coles and declined by 1% at Woolworths in the September quarter 2021 versus the prior corresponding period against a backdrop of rising upstream costs, including cost pressures experienced by manufacturers of consumer-packaged goods, or CPGs.

Heading into the upcoming release of first-quarter fiscal 2022 sales figures in late October, we maintain our fair value estimates of AUD 24.00 and AUD 13.20 per share for narrow moat Woolworths and no-moat Coles, respectively. 

Although we estimate Woolworths dropped prices by more than Coles in the September quarter, our shopping basket was still cheaper at Coles than at Woolworths. Our average Coles basket was priced at a 2% discount to the average Woolworths basket consisting of identical items, suggesting Coles competed more aggressively on price.

 Large global suppliers have been sounding the alarm regarding inflationary pressures within their supply chains. 

Nonetheless, we don’t anticipate rising input costs to materially impact profit margins at Coles and Woolworth in fiscal 2022, as their suppliers are likely to partially internalise any inflation, and we expect the supermarkets to successfully pass on higher cost of goods sold to consumers in the form of low-single-digit price rises. Coles and Woolworths enjoy dominating positions within the Australian grocery retailing sector and can leverage buying power in their price negotiations with suppliers. Increasing the level of private label penetration also offers supermarkets the option to better manage the price of their baskets.

From fiscal 2024, we expect sales growth of the Australian food retailing industry to recover to a sustainable rate of about 4% annually, underpinned by food price inflation of 2.5% and population growth of around 1.5%. 

We also track a discount grocery basket, comparing private label product pricing at Woolworths, Coles, and Aldi. Our discount basket indicates prices were roughly the same at Woolworths and Aldi in the September quarter 2021, while the average private label product at Coles was priced at around a mid-single-digit premium, after adjusting for packaging sizes. 

We infer from our baskets differences in pricing strategies between the two majors. We conclude Woolworths aims to match Aldi on private label pricing, while Coles’ comparable private label range is less competitively priced. Rather, Coles seems to be focusing on matching Woolworths on its branded product range. 

However, we caution the readthrough from our baskets has its limitations due their small sample sizes. Morningstar’s Little Shopping Basket and our discount grocery basket each track only a small subset of products across the vast ranges stocked by Australian supermarket retailers. Also, over time periods shorter than a full year promotional cycle, differences in promotional schedules impact results.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Marvell taking aim at cloud, 5G and automotive markets

Between data processing units, or DPUs, optical interconnect, and ethernet solutions, Marvell has one of the broadest networking silicon portfolios in the world, and we think it is primed to steal market share from incumbent Broadcom with bleeding-edge technology.

Marvell has exited its low-margin legacy markets of consumer hard disk drives and Wi-Fi chipsets to focus on its networking portfolio and used the acquisitions of Cavium, Avera, Aquantia, Inphi, and Innovium to expand out of its enterprise market niche into the rapidly growing data center and 5G markets.

Marvell’s recent financial history has been choppy as a result of CEO Matt Murphy’s aggressive overhaul of the business’ focus. Trends toward disaggregated networks and merchant silicon, as well as 5G and data center buildouts, would act as secular tailwinds for Marvell.

Financial Strength:

As of May 1, 2021, the firm carried $522 million in cash and $4.7 billion in total debt—largely taken on to acquire Inphi. Marvell is expected to exit fiscal 2022 with a gross debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.4 times, above its target of 2 times. As per the analysts, Marvell is expected to stay leveraged but to pay down debt as it matures.

The firm’s free cash flow generation is expected to ramp up toward $2 billion a year by fiscal 2026, up from just over $700 million in fiscal 2021, as it exacts material operating leverage with top-line growth.

The firm would be prudent to postpone any M&A until it returns below its debt/EBITDA target, following $11 billion spent so far in fiscal 2022 on Inphi and Innovium.

Bulls Say:

  • Marvell has best-of-breed data processing units and optical interconnect products that should allow it to benefit from the rapidly growing cloud and 5G markets.
  • We think the combination of Inphi and Innovium under the Marvell umbrella could give it a technological advantage to Broadcom in high-performance networking.
  • We expect Marvell to exact significant operating leverage as it incorporates acquisitions and adds volume to the top line.

Company Profile:

Marvell Technology is a leading fabless chipmaker focused on networking and storage applications. Marvell serves the data center, carrier, enterprise, automotive, and consumer end markets with processors, optical

interconnections, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and merchant silicon for ethernet applications. The firm is an active acquirer, with five large acquisitions since 2017 helping it pivot out of legacy consumer applications to focus on the cloud and 5G markets.

(Source: Morningstar)

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Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Strong Fiscal 2021 Trends Persist Into First-Quarter Fiscal 2022

While dominating the fragmented Australian market, and being a large global player in commodity and environmental testing, it is trumped by the majors, Bureau Veritas, SGS, and Intertek in nondestructive testing and inspection. Services include laboratory testing for the mineral, coal, environmental, food, and pharmaceutical segments.

Excellent reputation, technical capabilities, a global network, and established relationships with global clients are key advantages over often fragmented competitors.ALS’ global network of more than 350 laboratories provides a geographically diverse revenue base: 37% Asia-Pacific, 36% Americas, 24% EMENA, and the balance Africa. This global network reduces region reliance and gives it the capability to leverage experience across borders and serve an international client base.

Financial Strength

ALS is in only reasonable financial health. At the end of fiscal 2015, acquisitions and capital expenditure had pushed net debt to AUD 776 million and gearing (net debt/equity) to 63%. A subsequent AUD 325 million capital raising meant gearing fell to near 40% and net debt/EBITDA from 2.6 times to a manageable 2.0 times. Incremental acquisitions in the life sciences segment’s EBITDA had been accompanied by a sharp rise in group net debt. This has since been paid down to AUD 675 million at end-March 2021. Somewhat elevated leverage (ND/ND+E) of 36% reflects ongoing incremental acquisitions in the life sciences segment, albeit within the limits of ALS’ sub-45% target ratio. Fiscal 2021 net debt/EBITDA of 1.6 is reasonable.

Bulls Say’s

  • ALS has diversified the earnings base to mitigate exposure to highly cyclical commodity markets. Expansion into food and pharma testing, as well as inspection and certification markets, should provide growth despite a significant slowdown in minerals testing.
  • Large clients are unlikely to move away on price alone, with quality and skills essential requirements.
  • Exposure to mineral and coal testing could once again provide earnings growth if the global economy’s appetite for commodities increases.

Company Profile 

Founded in the 1880s and listing on the ASX in 1952, ALS operates three divisions: commodities, life sciences, and industrial. ALS commodities traditionally generated the majority of underlying earnings, providing geochemistry, metallurgy, inspection and mine site services for the global mining industry. Expansion into environmental, pharmaceutical and food testing areas and commodity price weakness have lessened earnings exposure to commodities.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks Shares

Pointsbet Holdings delivered strong FY21 results with group revenue up by 159%

Investment Thesis:

  • U.S. growth opportunity– the U.S. online sports betting market continues to open following the 2018 supreme court ruling which legalise the industry. Market growth estimates forecast the industry to grow to US$51bn by 2033. 
  • Strong management team with a solid track record – the ability to grow market share in a competitive and mature market of Australia gives us some confidence the management team have the right strategy in place to build share in the U.S. 
  • Proprietary technology stack – The speed and usability are key differentiating factors. PBH operates proprietary technology, which it developed inhouse. This means new modifications and updates are easier to implement (i.e., more control) with inhouse tech versus outsourced (i.e., having to go to an external provider each time with an update). 
  • Cross sell opportunities with iGaming – PBH’s recently launched iGaming product (online casino) is already highlighting cross-sell opportunities to its customers.

Key Risks:

  • Rising competitive pressures
  • Adverse regulatory change in key operating jurisdictions (Australia / U.S.)
  • Loss of market share in key regions or growth rate fails to meet market expectations
  • Higher than expected costs – especially around investment in sales & marketing to drive market share
  • Trading on high PE-multiples / valuations means the Company is more prone to share price volatility
  • Cyber-attack on PBH’s platform

Key highlights:

  • PBH’s FY21 results were largely in line with expectations, with group revenue up +159% to $194.7m and gross profit up +129% to $87.6m YoY.
  • The recently launched iGaming product represents another growth opportunity (backed by a strong management team), with management noting that ~71% of all iGaming players have placed an in-play wager and 40% of cash active clients have placed an iGaming bet since launch.
  • The more mature market of Australia still has room to grow, with PointsBet, the no. 5 player (by online market share) and management still targeting 10% online market share by 2025.
  • Group normalised EBITDA for the year was a loss of $156.1m vs loss of $37.6m in the pcp, as PBH continues to invest in the business to scale the U.S. business and invests in its technology stack.
  • Australian Trading segment reported revenue of $150.7m (vs $68.2m in pcp) and EBITDA of $9.2m (vs $6.9m in the pcp).
  • USA segment reported revenue of $42.3m (vs $7.0m in pcp) and EBITDA loss of $149.6m (vs loss of $38.2m in pcp). During the year, PBH operational in six U.S. states: New Jersey, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan.
  • Balance sheet is in a good position to support investment in growth, with pro forma cash balance of $665.2m (post the July 21 capital raising).

Company Description: 

PointsBet Holdings Ltd (PBH), founded in 2015, is a corporate bookmaker with operations in Australia and the United States (New Jersey, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana). PointsBet has developed a scalable cloud-based wagering platform which offers customers sports and racing wagering products. PBH’s key products include fixed odds sports, fixed odds racing and PointsBetting.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Rio Tinto’s most recent profit report

Investment Thesis

  • One of the largest miners in the world with a competitive cost structure.
  • Tier 1 assets globally, which are difficult to replicate. 
  • Highly cash generative assets with attractive free cash flow profile. 
  • Shareholder return focused – ongoing capital management initiatives.  
  • Commodities price surprises on the upside (potential China stimulus to combat Coronavirus impact). 
  • Strong balance sheet position.
  • Electrification and light-weighting trends in automobile industry provide long-term growth runway for aluminium demand.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Further deterioration in global macro-economic conditions.
  • Deterioration in global iron ore/aluminium supply & demand equation.
  • Production delay or unscheduled site shutdown.
  • Natural disasters such as Tropical Cyclone Veronica.
  • Unfavourable movements in AUD/USD.
  • Company not achieving its productivity gain targets. 

1H21 results summary

Relative to the pcp (1H20), and in US$: 

  • Net cash generated from operating activities of $13.7bn was +143% higher on higher pricing for iron ore, aluminium, and copper. 
  • $10.2bn free cash flow reflected stronger operating cash flows partially offset by a +24% rise in Capex of $3.3bn (driven by higher replacement and development capital as the Company ramp up its projects).
  • $21.0bn underlying EBITDA was 118% higher (on 61% margin). 
  • $12.2bn underlying earnings (reflecting underlying EPS of 751.9cps) was +156% (with underlying effective tax rate of 29%). 
  • The Board declared cash return of 561cps, broken into interim dividend of 376cps and special dividend of 185cps. Payout is 75% of underlying earnings. (6) Balance sheet was stronger with net cash of $3.1bn versus net debt of $0.7bn in the pcp.

Company Description  

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) is an international mining company with operations in Australia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Asia. RIO has interests in mining for aluminium, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock and diamonds.  

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
IPO Watch

Mitre Mining Corporation Limited launched IPO to raise $5 million

Mitre Mining Corporation Limited opened the offer for its IPO on 21 August 2021 and closed the offer on 10 September 2021. The shares get listed on ASX on 30 September 2021.

The Offer is for an initial public offering of 25,000,000 Shares at an issue price of $0.20 each to raise $5 million. The Offer is open to investors with a registered address in Australia. The Company does not expect to pay dividends in the near future as its focus will primarily be on growing the business.

PURPOSES OF OFFER

The purposes of the Offer are to: 

  • Raise $5,000,000 pursuant to the Offer (before associated cost)
  •  Assist the Company to meet the requirements of ASX and satisfy Chapters 1 and 2 of the Listing Rules, as part of the Company’s application for admission to the Official List.
  •  Position the Company to seek to achieve the objectives.
  •  Provide the Company with access to equity capital markets for future funding needs; and 
  •  Enhance the public and financial profile of the Company.

PROPOSED USE OF FUNDS 

Following the Offer, it is anticipated that the following funds will be available to the Company.

SOURCE OF FUNDS($)
Existing cash reserves187,518
Proceeds from Offer5,000,000
TOTAL FUNDS AVAILABLE5,187,518

The following table shows the intended use of funds in the two-year period following admission of the Company to the Official List:

USE OF FUNDS – YEAR 1$%
Exploration expenditure1,900,00064.19
General administration and working capital513,54717.35
Estimated expenses of the Offer546,21518.46
Total – Year 12,959,762100.00
USE OF FUNDS – YEAR 2$%
Exploration expenditure1,512,14667.88
General administration and working capital715,61032.12
Total – Year 22,227,756100.00
TOTAL FUNDS ALLOCATED5,187,518100.00

Financial Information

ParticularsPeriod ended 30 june 2021 (in$)
Loss after income tax(98,535)
Cash at end of financial period254,321
Total current assets272,110
Total liabilities18,575

Mitre Mining Corporation Limited IPO Subscription Status (Bidding Detail)

Mitre Mining Corporation Limited IPO was oversubscribed and closed the trading at AUD$0.255 on 30 September and took a steep fall on 4th October at AUD$ 0.23.

About the company

Mitre Mining Corporation Limited  is a public company incorporated in Australia.The Company is an early stage mineral exploration and development company focused on gold and base metals discoveries within the Project.

Since its incorporation on 2 November 2020, the Company has secured the Tenement (EL9146) and has undertaken initial geological and geophysical desktop studies, interpretations and reconnaissance field work.

Following completion of the Offer, the Company intends to undertake exploration activities on the Project.

(Source: https://mitremining.com.au/prospectus/)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Technology Stocks

Oracle transition to the cloud to get benefit from the Data boom

However, growth has been lacking as more customers shift their workloads to the cloud, bypassing Oracle’s solutions. Despite Oracle’s cloud migration efforts, cloud competition will likely provide headwinds for Oracle.

 However, we don’t view the company as being on the forefront of recent software trends, and new and potential customers appear to be looking past Oracle for their database needs. Database preferences are far wider today due to the sheer number of ways to manipulate data, and the different data storage practices this necessitates. In turn, Oracle is losing database market share to new database types that may be better suited to the cloud. 

Additionally, the transition to the cloud is prompting enterprises to change software vendors away from all-in-one ERP systems to application specific that are best of breed. In response, Oracle is banking on its second-generation cloud to not only cater to its traditional enterprise workloads, like supporting databases, but also general use workloads. However, we view Oracle’s cloud as sub-scale to Amazon and others and we doubt Oracle can close this gap soon. In our opinion, Oracle should still be successful in moving a significant amount of its traditional on-premises workloads to Oracle cloud. However, migrating all of its customers is not such a sure thing, as cloud-first software vendors have been able to take meaningful share from legacy Oracle customers.

Financial Strength 

Oracle is in healthy financial standing. As of fiscal 2020, Oracle had $43 billion in cash and equivalents versus $72 billion in debt. However, Oracle should generate robust free cash flow in the years ahead to settle these debt obligations over time. We think that Oracle will have the capital to increase its total annual dividends to $1.28 in fiscal 2025 from $0.96 in fiscal 2020, as the company continues to make share repurchases and acquisitions. However, we think that the magnitude of acquisitions will moderate as the company comes off of its buildout of its second-generation cloud product and has stressed their recent preference to build new capabilities in house. In terms of capital expenditures, we think Oracle will spend an average of $1.6 million per year over the next five years, as the company continues to require build outs for its cloud operations.

Bulls Say

  • Oracle’s relational database should be able to post strong growth as customers continue to depend on its quality features, such as data partitioning which brings incomparable load balancing efficiency.
  • Oracle’s autonomous database and IaaS was built with ease of use in mind, which could bring a significant base of first-time Oracle users to the company, strengthening top line results. 
  • Oracle’s stake in TikTok Global and cloud services to TikTok’s U.S. operations should add a significant boost to Oracle’s top line and attract more “general use” cloud customers.

Company Profile

Oracle provides database technology and enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software to enterprises around the world. Founded in 1977, Oracle pioneered the first commercial SQL-based relational database management system. Today, Oracle has 430,000 customers in 175 countries, supported by its base of 136,000 employees.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.