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Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Weatherford to benefit from oil market’s recovery from COVID-19

When CEO Mark McCollum came aboard in March 2017, many wondered whether it was the dawn of a new era for Weatherford International. McCollum made solid progress in turning Weatherford around in 2018, with rapid improvement in profitability thanks to the companywide transformation plan. But this improvement wasn’t quick enough for the highly leveraged company’s creditors, which forced Weatherford into bankruptcy in 2019.

Weatherford emerged from bankruptcy in December 2019 having shed most of its debt. Shortly after, the coronavirus oil market downturn battered the company just as it was getting back on its feet. Given many abortive attempts at turning Weatherford around, many investors are refusing to give the company another chance. While McCollum left in 2020, he laid the groundwork for improvement that should be carried on by the company’s new leadership under CEO Girish Saligram.

Financial Strength:

Weatherford’s balance sheet is somewhat weak, but it is expected to ride out the rest of the oil market downturn without major financial distress. Weatherford has about $1.2 billion in available cash and no debt coming due until 2024. The company posted solid free cash flow of $135 million in 2020 despite very weak oil markets. In 2021, the company won’t have the benefit of working capital inflows, but it is still expected to be slightly positive in total free cash flow. In any case, it should have enough liquidity to meet any cash outflows as COVID-19 wreaks havoc on oil markets in 2021. Improving profitability in subsequent years should drive Weatherford solidly into positive free cash flow territory, despite a very heavy interest burden.

Bulls Say:

  • Weatherford has some hidden gems in its portfolio whose value will be revealed with the divestiture of loss-making business lines and streamlining the company. 
  • The company’s managed pressure drilling technology will become increasingly sought after as wellbores move into deeper, harsher environments.

Company Profile:

Weatherford International provides a diversified portfolio of oilfield services, with offerings catering to all geographies and different types of oilfields. Key product lines include artificial lift, tubular running services, cementing products, directional drilling, and wireline evaluation.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

PNC Remains on Track to Complete Most Expense Saves in 2021

the acquisition of RBC’s U.S. branch network in the Southeast, and by updating its core infrastructure and retail branch model. PNC has been very successful at organically expanding its customer base, both in commercial banking and now in retail. The expanding client base has led to solid loan, deposit, and fee income growth. Selling new products into the formerly underperforming RBC branch network has worked particularly well, and PNC now seems poised to repeat this effort with the pending acquisition of BBVA. The bank’s Midwest commercial growth strategy is paying dividends, and PNC will be attempting retail growth efforts in the same areas where commercial expansion was successful.

The successful acquisition history, seemingly successful expansion initiatives, and improved credit performance during the 2007 downturn makes PNC is one of the better operators we cover. PNC has executed on many expense-saving initiatives over the years, and management has been actively reinvesting many of these savings back in the business to stay ahead on the technology front.

Financial Strength:

The fair value of PNC Financial Services is USD 185.00, which is based on analyst’s assumption that the bank’s efficiency ratio eventually declines to about 52%, as management realizes operating leverage from infrastructure investments and the BBVA acquisition helps push efficiency for PNC to the next level. The dividend yield given by company has been very consistent year on year.

PNC is in good financial health. The bank weathered the energy downturn well, and energy loans make up a small percentage of the loan book. The bank has also weathered the COVID-driven downturn well. Most measures of credit strain remain quite manageable, and the bank’s history of prudent lending give us comfort with the risks here. PNC’s common equity Tier 1 ratio was at 10% as of June 2021, handily exceeding the bank’s targets. The capital-allocation plan remains standard for PNC, with 30% plus of earnings devoted to dividends, as much as necessary used for internal investment, and the left overs used for share repurchases.

Bulls Say:

  • PNC’s acquisition of BBVA seems likely to add value to the franchise and for shareholders, and will make PNC the regional bank with the most scale. 
  • A strong economy, higher inflation, and potentially higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel results even higher. 
  • In additional to acquisitions, PNC has organic expansion opportunities it is taking advantage of, which could lead to higher organic growth than peers over time.

Company Profile:

PNC Financial Services Group is a diversified financial services company offering retail banking, corporate and institutional banking, asset management, and residential mortgage banking across the United States.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Global stocks

Lufthansa’s Fair Value Estimate Lowered to EUR 8.15 to Account for Rights Issue

As a result of the coronavirus downturn the group is embarking on a cost and fleet restructuring program, which will see it emerge as a smaller business. In 2020, the group received a government-backed support package totaling EUR 9 billion, which included an equity stake of 20% by the German government for EUR 306 million. 

As part of the approval process the European Commission required the group to surrender 26 slots at its Frankfurt and Munich hubs to new competitors. Despite the recent EUR 2.1 billion rights issue, the group remains highly indebted, which may require additional capital restructuring if cash flows don’t recover to suitable levels to de-leverage organically. Due to the group’s indebtedness and highly uncertain timing of a recovery in cash flows, there is still a wide range of possible outcomes for the group’s equity value.

Financial Strength

Lufthansa is in a weak financial position due to its high levels of indebtedness. The coronavirus pandemic dealt a heavy blow to the aviation industry, resulting in record losses, cash outflows, and growing debt levels. To bolster liquidity, the group agreed to a EUR 9 billion government support package, which included the German state taking a 20% ownership in the group. Net debt, including pension provisions of EUR 7.6 billion, at the end of June 2021 equated to EUR 18 billion. The group has since raised EUR 2.1 billion in equity capital through a rights issue concluded in October 2021, the proceeds of which will be used to repay state aid. The group’s pro-forma net debt and liquidity position after the capital increase is expected to be EUR 16 billion and EUR 7.7 billion, respectively. Despite the capital raise, we believe the group remains highly geared, with a net debt to pre-pandemic EBITDA ratio of 3.5 times, and it will require multiple years of deleveraging to restore the balance sheet to sustainable levels.

Bulls Say’s

  • COVID-19 presents the group with a unique opportunity to structurally lower its cost base and emerge from the crisis with better profitability.
  • The airline has dominant positions at the key European hubs of Frankfurt and Munich, which could be an early beneficiary of a recovery in air travel.
  • Fleet reduction through the retirement of older and less efficient aircraft could lead to a more rational fleet with higher load factors and unit revenue.

Company Profile 

Deutsche Lufthansa is a European airline group. The company operates under the Lufthansa, Swiss Air, Austrian Airlines and Eurowings brands. In 2019, the company carried 145 million passengers to its network of 318 destinations globally. The group’s main airport hubs are Frankfurt, Munich, Vienna and Zurich. The company generated sales of EUR 36.4 billion in 2019.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Technology Stocks

Xero Investors Should Check Its ARPU and CAC in Its Interim Financial Result

SME accounting software users have historically shown little inclination to switch providers, and Xero enjoys annual customer retention rates of over 80%.

The transition from desktop- to cloud-based products offers a rare opportunity for relatively new providers to win market share via the transition of customers to cloud-hosted SaaS products that offer material productivity improvements. We expect switching costs to recapture their earlier resilience once customers transition to cloud products and accounting software becomes more integrated with third-party software.

Xero Investors Should Check Its ARPU and CAC in Its Interim Financial Result

Xero has announced little of note since its fiscal 2021 financial result in May 2021. However, the company will announce its interim fiscal 2022 financial result next month, which is likely to reignite investor attention. However, Xero shares are materially overvalued and the current market price of AUD 145 per share is significantly above our AUD 50 fair value estimate. 

Although Xero reported a NZD 20 million profit after tax in fiscal 2021, this was partly due to the company’s decision to cut back on spending in the first half.In the long term, we expect Xero’s EBIT margin to expand significantly, from 7% in fiscal 2021 to 30% by fiscal 2027.

We expect investors to largely overlook Xero’s profitability at its interim result and instead focus on other metrics like subscriber growth, revenue growth, customer acquisition costs, or CAC, and annual revenue per user, or ARPU. Particularly focused on ARPU because it forms a key component of our investment thesis, and expected that strong price-based competition to limit Xero’s ability to raise prices. This will be interesting because a strong subscriber growth figure may be supported by weak ARPU growth or possibly strong CAC growth, indicating Xero is competing harder for customers.

Financial Strength

 Xero is in reasonable financial health but needs to maintain high revenue growth rates to increase profits and justify its market capitalisation. We expect EBIT margins to expand to around 30% by fiscal 2025, in line with peer companies. As the company matures, we expect the capital-light business model to enable strong cash generation. Strong customer retention rates of over 80% should mean earnings volatility will be relatively low in the long term.

Bulls Say 

  • Xero is experiencing strong revenue and customer growth driven by the transition of desktop accounting software to the cloud, a trend we expect to continue for at least the next decade.
  • Xero operates in the software sector, which is typically an industry with low capital intensity and strong cash generation. We expect Xero to generate strong returns on invested capital and free cash flow in the long term. 
  • Xero has already achieved dominant positions in the New Zealand and Australian cloud accounting markets and is a leading competitor in the U.K. and U. S. markets.

Company Profile

Xero is a provider of cloud-based accounting software, primarily aimed at the small and medium enterprise, or SME, and accounting practice markets. The company has grown quickly from its base in New Zealand and surpassed local incumbent providers MYOB and Reckon to become the largest SME accounting SaaS provider in the region. Xero is also growing internationally, with a focus on the United Kingdom and the United States. The company has a history of losses and equity capital raisings, as it has prioritised customer growth.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks Shares

Nexstar Media Group looks to capitalize on its acquisition

158 are affiliated with the four national broadcasters: CBS (50), Fox (43), NBC (35), and ABC (30). The firm has networks in 15 of the top 20 television markets and reaches 63% of U.S. TV households. 

Though it’s slightly declining in importance, advertising remains an important source of revenue for Nexstar. Just under 44% of total 2019 revenue came from non-political advertising, down from 46% in 2017. Over 70% of non-political advertising revenue is generated at the local level by selling ad time to area businesses, including restaurants, auto dealerships, and retailers, which have suffered during the pandemic. In markets where Nexstar has a duopoly (two local stations), the costs of the salesforce and news programming can be split and the access to two stations provides local (and national) advertisers more choices in terms of targeting certain demographic groups. Because of its size and geographic reach, Nexstar also sells advertising nationally to auto manufacturers, telecom firms, fast-food restaurants, and retailers via their ad agencies. The larger scale of the firm, along with increased political ad spending, has increased the importance of elections.

Financial Strength:

The fair value of Nexstar has been maintained by the analysts at USD 150.00. This fair value estimate implies 2021 adjusted price/earnings of 9 times, an enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 8, and a free cash flow yield of 16%. 

Although Nexstar is more highly leveraged than it has been traditionally, it is in decent financial shape. Overall debt increased as a result of the Tribune Media acquisition. The firm had $7.2 billion in net debt as of March 2019, up sharply from $3.9 billion at the end of 2018. Nexstar took a number of steps over the first quarter of 2020 to adapt its business for the potential impact of COVID-19. It spent $457 million in the first quarter to reduce its debt load, lowering its first-lien net leverage to 3.04 times at the end of the quarter from 3.52 times at the end of 2019. The new level is well below the covenant level of 4.25 times. The firm had no bond maturities due until 2024, though some of its $5.4 billion first-lien loans will come due over the next three years.

Bulls Say:

  • Nexstar can drive local ad revenue growth via its duopoly markets
  • The increased reach provided by the Tribune merger will help attract more national advertisers and grow political ad spending 
  • Nexstar has the heft and reach to strike more advantageous retransmission agreements with pay television distributors

Company Profile:

Nexstar is the largest television station owner/operator in the United States, with 197 stations in 115 markets. Of its 197 full-power stations, 158 are affiliated with the four national broadcasters: CBS (50), Fox (43), NBC (35), and ABC (30). The 2019 merger with Tribune made Nexstar the top broadcast affiliate for both Fox and CBS as well as the number-two partner for NBC and number three for ABC. The firm now has networks in 15 of the top 20 television markets and reaches 69 million television households. Nexstar also owns WGN, a nationwide pay-television network, and a 31% stake in Food Network and Cooking Channel.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Newcrest’s Numerous Development Projects Maturing Nicely; Shares Remain Undervalued

the large resource base, low-cost position, and the company’s record. Barring a dip in fiscal 2024 and 2025, when the company assumes Telfer exhausts, Newcrest expects gold production to remain steady around 2.0 million ounces a year for the next decade based on the projects it has in hand. The outlook for copper production is similarly relatively flat, around 140,000 tonnes a year, but should step up from around 2029 to over 170,000 tonnes a year. Neither outlook–for gold or copper production–sounds too exciting. But beneath that apparent steadiness, the forecasts show how far Newcrest has come to offset the inevitable decline in grade at Cadia and the possible closure of Telfer.

Company’s Future Outlook

Our AUD 29.50 fair value estimate for Newcrest after incorporating the refined development plans for Havieron and Lihir. However, we continue to incorporate it separately into our fair value estimate, and the latest prefeasibility study supports our estimated standalone valuation of about AUD 2.50 per share, which is less than 10% of our overall fair value estimate. The company expects all-in sustaining costs to roughly have by fiscal 2030. In part, that depends on the copper price; Newcrest assumes USD 3.30 per pound longer term, which is above our USD 2.50 per pound assumption from 2025, but nevertheless we expect the company to remain a low-cost gold producer and well placed relative to peers.

We think these deposits have been somewhat forgotten by the market, but they contribute just over 10% to our fair value estimate, and we think the market could reasonably quickly be reminded of the valuable optionality they bring. From the base cases that Newcrest outlined for Telfer, Havieron, and Red Chris, we think the upside potential at Red Chris is likely to be the most substantial of the three, but it’s also longer-dated. The transition from lower-grade open-pit ore to bulk underground mining is expected

Company Profile 

Newcrest is an Australia-based gold and, to a lesser extent, copper miner. Operations are predominantly in Australia and Papua New Guinea, with a smaller mine in Canada. Cash costs are below the industry average, underpinned by improvements at Lihir and Cadia. Newcrest is one of the larger global gold producers but accounts for less than 3% of total supply. Gold mining is relatively fragmented.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

New Jersey Resources Infrastructure Upgrades and Clean Energy Support Multiyear Growth Plan

NJR’s regulated utility business will continue to produce more than two thirds of earnings on a normalized basis for the foreseeable future as New Jersey’s need for infrastructure safety and decarbonization investments provide growth opportunities. NJR’s constructive regulation and customer growth has produced an impressive record of earnings and dividend growth.

NJR’s gas distribution business faces a potential long-term threat from carbon-reduction policies. To address that threat, NJR plans to invest $850 million in its solar business in 2021-24. These projects support aggressive renewable energy goals in New Jersey and other states. NJR also is well positioned to invest in hydrogen and biogas. NJR’s $367.5 million acquisition of the Leaf River (Mississippi) Energy Center in late 2019 paid off big in early 2021 when extreme cold weather allowed NJR to profit from its gas in storage.

Company’s Future Outlook

Our utility earnings growth estimate assumes 1% annual customer growth and $1 billion of capital investment in 2022-24, in line with management’s plan. NJR has maintained one of the most conservative balance sheets and highest credit ratings in the industry. We forecast an average debt/total capital ratio around 55% and EBITDA/interest coverage near 5 times on a normalized basis after a full year of earnings contributions from its midstream investments. NJR’s $260 million equity raise in fiscal-year 2020 will primarily go to fund the Leaf River acquisition and midstream investments. 

In mid-2019, it issued $200 million of 30- and 40-year first mortgage bonds at interest rates below 4%, among the lowest rates of any large U.S. investor-owned utility at the time. The success of the nonutility businesses and divesture of the wind investments also brought in cash to support its $2.5 billion of total investment in 2020-22. NJR will probably have to raise up to $700 million mostly through debt to help finance what we estimate will be $2 billion of capital investment in 2022-24.NJR’s board took a big step by raising the dividend 9% to $1.45 per share annualized in late 2021.

Bulls Say’s

  • NJR’s customer base continues to grow faster than the national average and includes the wealthier regions of New Jersey.
  • NJR raised its dividend 9% for 2022 to $1.45 per share, its 28th increase in the last 26 years.
  • NJR’s distribution utility has received two constructive rate case outcomes and regulatory approval for nearly all of its investment plan since 2016.

Company Profile 

New Jersey Resources is an energy services holding company with regulated and non regulated operations. Its regulated utility, New Jersey Natural Gas, delivers natural gas to 560,000 customers in the state. NJR’s non regulated businesses include retail gas supply and solar investments primarily in New Jersey. NJR also is an equity investor and owner in several large midstream gas projects.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

AGL’s Near-Term Outlook Looks Tough, but Earnings are expected to Recover Over the Long Term

Earnings are dominated by energy generation (wholesale markets), with energy retailing about half the size. Strategy is heavily influenced by government energy policy, such as the renewable energy target.

AGL has proposed a structural separation into two businesses; a multi-product energy retailer focusing on carbon neutrality and an electricity generator that will own AGL’s large fleet of coal fired power stations among other assets. At this stage, the announced split is only an internal separation, with more details regarding the future governance, capital structure, and asset allocation expected by June 2021. 

Low-cost electricity generators and gas producers can achieve an economic moat via low-cost production, as AGL has via its low-cost coal-fired generation plants. Wholesale electricity prices are under pressure from falling gas prices, government initiatives to reduce utility bills, and new renewable energy supply. These headwinds are likely to keep AGL’s earnings falling into fiscal 2023.

Financial Strength:

The fair value estimate for AGL is AUD 14.00 per share, which is implied by the fiscal 2022 price/earnings multiple of 32 and an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 9. At this valuation, the forward dividend yield is expected to be 2.3% unfranked, with strong long-term growth as earnings recover. Also, the historical dividend yields generated by AGL are phenomenal.

AGL Energy is in reasonable financial health though banks are increasingly reluctant to lend to coal power stations. From 1.4 times in 2020, net debt/EBITDA is expected to rise to 2.1 times in fiscal 2022. Funds from operations interest cover was comfortable at 12.8 times in fiscal 2021, comfortably above the 2.5 times covenant limit. AGL Energy aims to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. To bolster the balance sheet amid falling earnings and one-off demerger costs, the dividend reinvestment plan will be underwritten until mid-2022. This should raise more than AUD 500 million in equity. Dividend payout ratio is 75% of EPS.

Bulls Say: 

  • As AGL Energy is a provider of an essential product, earnings should prove somewhat defensive. 
  • Its balance sheet is in relatively good shape, positioning it well to cope with industry headwinds. 
  • Longer term, its low-cost coal-fired electricity generation fleet is likely to benefit from rising wholesale electricity prices.

Company Profile:

AGL Energy is one of Australia’s largest retailers of electricity and gas. It services 3.7 million retail electricity and gas accounts in the eastern and southern Australian states, or about one third of the market. Profit is dominated by energy generation, underpinned by its low-cost coal-fired generation fleet. Founded in 1837, it is the oldest company on the ASX. Generation capacity comprises a portfolio of peaking, intermediate, and base-load electricity generation plants, with a combined capacity of 10,500 megawatts.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Technology Stocks

Netwealth’s FUA Continues to Grow Quickly But FUA Fees to remain Under Pressure

Graphic of investment stock market data analysis business

The company charges for its software based on the value of funds under management on its platform, comprising over 95% of group revenue, in addition to providing Netwealth-branded investment products, which are managed by third-party investment managers. Netwealth does not own investment management or financial advisory businesses. 

The company has also benefited from regulatory changes such as the Future of Financial Advice, or FOFA, reforms, which require financial advisors to act in their clients’ best interests. These reforms have encouraged financial advisors to break away from vertically integrated, and potentially conflicted, wealth management businesses to operate as independent financial advisors, or IFAs, and use independent investment administration platforms, such as Netwealth, in the process.
Netwealth has also benefited from the banning of trail commission fees previously paid by investment administration platforms and investment advisors for recommending their products. This has encouraged financial advisors to seek new fee sources, including managed accounts, which were mainly available on the independent platforms. 

The vertically integrated incumbent platform providers continue to develop their platforms, which poses a long-term competitive threat to Netwealth.

Netwealth Remains Overvalued Despite FUA Growth Upgrade

Netwealth’s share price jumped 16% following its third-quarter update, which included an increase to fiscal 2022 funds under administration, or FUA, net inflow guidance to AUD 12.5 billion from AUD 10 billion. However,the market overreacted to the announcement, is overly focussed on FUA and revenue growth, and is ignoring likely long-term outlook on profits and cash flows. 

We have maintained Netwealth’s earnings forecasts and fair value estimate at AUD 6.50 per share, which is well below the current market price of AUD 16.56 per share.

Financial Strength 

Netwealth is in good financial health because of its service-based and capital-light business model, which has little need for debt or equity capital. The company expenses, rather than capitalises, research and development costs, which results in strong cash conversion and means most operating cash flow is available for dividend payments. The profitable business model ensures dividends are fully franked, which we consider to be sustainable. We consider management’s target dividend payout ratio of 60%-80% of Netwealth’s statutory net profit after tax to be sustainable.

Bulls Say

  • Netwealth has only a small proportion of the investment administration market, at around 4%, but has won market share quickly, and significant growth potential remains. 
  • Netwealth has a low fixed-cost base which means operating leverage is high and further strong revenue growth should be amplified at the EPS level. 
  • The investment administration platform industry has been growing at a low-double-digit CAGR in recent years, and we expect a high-single-digit CAGR over the next decade, providing a strong underlying tailwind for Netwealth.

Company Profile

Netwealth provides cloud-based investment administration software as a service, or SaaS, in Australia via its proprietary platform. Netwealth’s platform provides portfolio administration, investment management tools, and investment and managed account services to financial intermediaries and directly to clients. The company charges SaaS fees based on funds under management on its platform. Netwealth also offers Netwealth-branded investment products on its platform which are managed by third-party investment managers.

 (Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

PIMCO Global Bond Fund attracts well – resource to the investment team

Well established and methodical investment Process

PIMCO’s investment process entails three main buckets: (1) the economic forum (top down analysis), which meets four times a year to debate the state of play on short and long – term basis. (2) the investment committee develops the strategic parameters for portfolios and set the risk parameters such as interest rate exposure, yield curve positioning and sector positioning. (3) Portfolio management (bottom-up analysis) consists of PIMCO’s rigorous analysis and research of securities.

Downside Risk

  • Interest rate risk – (bond price and yields are inversely related)
  • Credit risk (the risk of downgrade and default) & Inflation risk
  • Personnel risk – significant turnover among the 3 lead PMs

Fund Performance 

(%)Fund (net)BenchmarkOut-performance
1-month -0.15-0.22+0.07
3-months1.081.53-0.45
FYTD0.871.03-0.16
1-year1.690.55+1.14
2-years (p.a.) 2.541.53+1.01
3-years (p.a.)4.384.28+0.10
Since inception (%p.a.)3.863.84+0.02

Source: PIMCO

Sector Exposure

Source: PIMCO

About the fund

The ESG Global Bond Fund is an actively managed portfolio of global fixed-interest investment which incorporates PIMCO’s ESG screening. The portfolio predominantly invests in governments, corporate, mortgage and other global fixed interest securities.

  • The ESGGlobal

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.