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LICs LICs

Twilio’s Software Building Blocks Are Constructing a Cloud Communications Empire

Business Strategy and Outlook

Twilio is a cloud-based communication-platform-as-a-service, or CPaaS, company offering communication application programming interfaces, or APIs, and prebuilt solution applications aimed at improving customer engagement. Through these APIs, Twilio’s platform allows developers to integrate messaging, voice, and video functionality into business applications. In a go-to-market model that focuses on empowering developers to utilize the APIs to build products in a highly customized fashion, Twilio has been able to expand into use-cases that would be difficult to penetrate otherwise. For widely sought after use-cases, Twilio has developed solution applications, like Flex Contact Center, which combine various channel APIs into a unified interface to create use-case-specific solutions.

The communication channel APIs are deployed through the Programmable Communications Cloud and then are combined and expanded into application platforms in the Engagement Cloud to offer higher level functionality for specific use-cases. In this view full stack as best-in-breed in the CPaaS space, enabling deeply integrated, sticky communication solutions. Twilio has stellar customer metrics, with churn consistently below 5% and net dollar expansion in excess of 130% in recent years.

Financial Strength

Twilio is in a healthy financial position. Revenue is growing rapidly, and the company is beginning to scale, while the balance sheet is in good shape. As of September 2021, the company had cash and short-term investments of $5.4 billion and a debt balance of $985.5 million. In March 2021, Twilio issued $1.0 billion of senior notes, consisting of $500 million of 3.625% notes due 2029, and $500 million of 3.875% notes due 2031. In June 2021, the company redeemed its prior convertible notes, due March 2023, in their entirety. Since raising approximately $150 million in its IPO in 2016, Twilio has completed several secondary offerings, recently announcing a $1.8 billion offering of its Class A common stock in 2021. Twilio has yet to achieve GAAP profitability, as the company remains focused on reinvesting excess returns back into the company, both on an organic and inorganic basis, to build out the platform and enhance future growth prospects.

Our fair value estimate for Twilio is $356 per share, down from $388 as we model slightly more muted long-term growth. It is expected that Twilio to grow at a 38% CAGR through 2025 from the combination of an expanding customer base and increasing usage of the platform by existing customers, evidenced by a stellar 131% net dollar expansion rate in the third quarter. Investors are discouraged by the combination of the third-quarter slowdown in organic growth, which we still view as healthy at a 38% increase year over year, and the widening loss expected for full-year 2021 after management’s fourth-quarter guidance.

Bulls Say’s 

  • The addition of SI partnerships and solution APIs should lead to increasing success in winning enterprise customers, which not only offer a greater lifetime value for a proportionally smaller acquisition cost, but also tend to be stickier customers. 
  • Twilio has stellar user retention metrics, with churn consistently below 5% and net dollar retention north of 130% in recent years. 
  • As Twilio focuses on developing more solution APIs and growth shifts from usage-based messaging to SaaS-like priced solutions, there should be a natural uptick in both gross margins and recurring revenue.

Company Profile 

Twilio is a cloud-based communication platform-as-a-service company offering communication application programming interfaces, or APIs, and prebuilt solution applications aimed at improving customer engagement. Through these APIs, Twilio’s platform allows software developers to integrate messaging, voice, and video functionality into new or existing business applications. The company leverages its Super Network, Twilio’s global network of carrier relationships, to facilitate high speed cost-optimized global messaging and voice-based communications.

(Source: FN Arena)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Accenture Posts Stellar Results as Compressed Transformations Accelerate Demand; Raising FVE to $258

Young woman trading stock market by touching.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Accenture is one of the largest IT-services companies in the world, providing both consulting and outsourcing capabilities. It is expected that Accenture’s growth will remain at a healthy and gradual pace, rather than a massive uptick. 

As a consultant, Accenture provides solutions for specific enterprise problems as well as broad-scope strategies in addition to integrating software for more than 75% of the global top 500 companies. As an outsourcer, Accenture offers business process outsourcing like procurement services as well as application management. 

As per the opinion of Morningstar analyst, there is always something new in the realm of enterprise technology to keep Accenture relevant and engaged with its most important customers. It’s wide moat stems from intangible assets associated with a stellar reputation for reliability and strategic and technological know-how, especially with large, risk-averse enterprise customers. It is also believed that  Accenture benefits from high customer switching costs as its key customers are loath to switch service providers for large or ongoing contracts. Further, as per Morningstar analyst Accenture generates industry-leading returns on capital because of its scale, given that there are only so many blueprints and software partners that an IT-services company needs to solve enterprise problems. Plus, with Accenture having one of the largest IT workforces (at half a million) and an industry-leading number of diamond accounts (typically $100 million annually or more), smaller IT-services companies may find it hard to keep up with the increasing innovation and know-how required to service enterprise technology.

Accenture Posts Stellar Results as Compressed Transformations Accelerate Demand; Raising FVE to $258

Wide-moat Accenture reported excellent first-quarter results, with the top and bottom line exceeding both management’s and our expectations. Accenture experienced broad-based growth in the quarter, benefiting from accelerating digital transformations throughout all end markets. Outperformance was industry, geography, and deal-size agnostic–reflective of the tremendous demand environment Accenture is experiencing. It is  believed that Accenture is uniquely positioned to address compressed transformation, a demand phenomenon that reflects enterprises requiring all-comprehensive digital and cloud transformations in a faster time span. This broad-market trend toward clients taking on more change at once will accelerate and continue to build an impressive pipeline. On the back of increasing alignment of Accenture’s end markets with its business transformation backed value proposition, Morningstar analysts increased our fair value estimate to $258 per share from $236. 

Financial Strength

Accenture’s financial model requires very little debt and generates significant cash flow. The company has an extremely low debt/capital ratio of 0.3% and produced slightly over $3 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2021. Morningstar analysts are confident that it will be able to deliver on significant share repurchases, dividend expansion, and acquisitions going forward, as it is expected that free cash flow to the firm will expand to over $8 billion by fiscal 2026. Most important is Accenture’s returns on new invested capital. While Accenture has similar operating margins to peers like Cognizant and Capgemini, it is able to achieve much greater returns on new invested capital than its peers because of its size, as per Morningstar analyst. This is possible in the industry because most major consulting/IT-services companies need the same partnerships with major software companies and all need blueprints to solve common enterprise problems. 

Bull Says

  • Accenture will increase wallet share with its enterprise customers as the technology landscape becomes increasingly complex. 
  • Accenture will rely more on automation to handle some of its business process outsourcing, allowing for margin expansion. 
  • Accenture’s mix shift away from more commoditized offerings should boost profitability.

Company Profile

Accenture is a leading global IT-services firm that provides consulting, strategy, and technology and operational services. These services run the gamut from aiding enterprises with digital transformation to procurement services to software system integration. The company provides its IT offerings to a variety of sectors, including communications, media and technology, financial services, health and public services, consumer products, and resources. Accenture employs just under 500,000 people throughout 200 cities in 51 countries.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

JP Morgan Investment Funds: A collection of top picks from diversified industries

He also tends to add and trim positions aggressively as they become more or less attractive according to analyst models, a tendency that benefits when stock prices mean revert. While Davis’ artful approach has some appeal, it doesn’t have a discernible edge relative to its competition.

Portfolio:

This portfolio finds a balance between differentiation and careful risk management. It held 51 stocks at the end of September 2021, significantly less than the 140-180 it used to have when it had three independently managed sleeves. However, manager Scott Davis’ desire to let stock selection drive results leads to only modest sector and industry tilts relative to its S&P 500 benchmark. Davis also considers factor exposure when building the portfolio. For instance, he increased the portfolio’s stake in financials companies toward the end of 2020 to bolster its exposure to cheaper, more cyclical stocks to help offset its lack of exposure to the energy sector.

The portfolio has historically leaned a bit more toward a growth style, and that still rings true. It displayed a slight growth bias relative to the benchmark as of October, sporting higher valuation metrics such as price/ sales and faster trailing revenue- and earnings-growth rates.

People:

This strategy continues to rely heavily on J.P. Morgan’s core research team, but it is now led exclusively by Scott Davis, who oversaw the strongest-performing sleeve of this formerly multi-managed offering. Davis became a named manager in August 2014, inheriting a 10% slice of the strategy, but quickly saw his share grow, most notably after manager Thomas Luddy stepped down at the end of 2017. Davis continues to leverage the ideas of J.P. Morgan’s core research team, which consists of 23 analysts with extensive industry experience.

Performance:

A good portion of the fund’s success came in 2020, which skews the trailing return figures a bit. Its 26.7% gain in 2020 outpaced the benchmark by over 8 percentage points, the best calendar year since Davis debuted. The fund’s case over other time periods is weaker: It outperformed the bogy about 51% of the time on a rolling one-year basis since Davis joined.

(Source: jpmorgan.com)

Price:

Analysts find it difficult to analyse expenses since it comes directly from the returns. Analysts expect that it would be able to generate positive alpha relative to its benchmark index.


(Source: Morningstar)                                                                      (Source: Morningstar)

About Funds:

The investment objective of this fund is to achieve a return in excess of the US equity market by investing primarily in US companies. It uses a research-driven investment process that is based on the fundamental analysis of companies and their future earnings and cash flows by a team of specialist sector analysts.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

FMG reported a solid FY21 result reflecting the highest ever annual shipments

Investment Thesis 

  • Improving sales mix towards higher grade products should continue to narrow the price discount FMG achieves to the market benchmark Platts 62% CFR Index. 
  •  Global stimulus measures – fiscal and monetary policies – are positive for global growth and FMG’s products. 
  •  Capital management initiatives – increasing dividends, potential share buybacks given the strength of the balance sheet. 
  •  Strong cash flow generation. 
  • Quality management team. 
  •  Continues to be on the lower end of the cost curve relative to peers; with ongoing focus on C1 cost reductions should be supportive of earnings.

Key Risks

  • Decline in iron ore prices
  •   Cost blowouts/ production disruptions. 
  • Cost out strategy fails to yield results. 
  • Company fails to deliver on adequate capital management initiatives. 
  •  Potential for regulatory changes. 
  • Vale SA supply comes back on market sooner than expected. 
  • Growth projects delayed.

FY21 Results Highlights : Relative to the pcp: 

  • Underlying EBITDA of US$16.4bn, was up +96% as Underlying EBITDA margin increased to 73% (from 65% in the pcp). 
  •  NPAT of US$10.3bn, was up +117% and represents a return on equity of 66%. EPS was US$3.35 (A$4.48). 
  • FMG achieved net cashflow from operating activities of US$12.6bn and free cashflow of US$9.0bn after investing US$3.6bn in capex. 
  • Fully franked final dividend of A$2.11 per share, increasing total dividends declared in FY21 to A$3.58 per share, equating to A$11.0bn and an 80% payout of NPAT. 
  •  FMG had cash on hand of US$6.9bn and net cash of US$2.7bn at year-end. Balance sheet remains strong with 19% gross gearing (below 30 to 40% target). Gross debt to EBITDA of 0.3x, was lower than 0.6x in FY20 and remains below target of 1-2x. 
  •  FMG revised its target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 (ten years earlier than previous target).

Operational performance highlights. Relative to pcp: 

  • Ore mined of 226.9m tonnes, was up +11%. 
  • FMG shipped a record 182.2m tonnes, up +2%; and sold 181.1mt, up 2%. 
  •  Average revenue of US$135.32/dmt, was up +72%. 
  •  FMG saw C1 cost of US$13.93/wmt, increase +8% but remains industry leading.

Company Profile

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. It owns and operates the Chichester Hub that consists of the Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek mines located in the Chichester Ranges in the Pilbara, Western Australia; and the Solomon Hub comprising the Firetail and Kings Valley mines located in the Hamersley Ranges in the Pilbara, Western Australia. The Company was founded in 2003 and is based in East Perth, Australia.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Threat-prevention Solution providing robust growth for Palo Alto Network Inc

Graphic of investment stock market data analysis business

Business Strategy and Outlook

Palo Alto Networks became a leading cybersecurity provider through its next-generation firewall appliance altering the requirements of an essential piece of networking security. The firm’s portfolio has expanded outside of network security into areas such as cloud protection and automated response. Looking ahead, Palo Alto’s nascent threat-prevention solutions will provide robust growth along with a significantly improved margin profile.

Core to Palo Alto’s technology is its security operating platform, which provides centralized security management. The ability to add technologies via subscriptions in the Palo Alto framework can alleviate complications by providing more holistic security, which can generate sustainable demand. Palo Alto will continue to outpace its security peers by focusing on providing solutions in areas like cloud security and automation. Palo Alto’s concerted efforts into machine learning, analytics, and automated responses could make its products indispensable within customer networks. Although it is expected that Palo Alto will remain acquisitive and dedicated to organic innovation, significant operating leverage will be gained throughout the coming decade as recurring subscription and support revenue streams flow from its expansive customer base.

Financial Strength 

Palo Alto is financially stable and would generate strong cash flow as it expands its operating margin profile. The company has historically operated at a loss (excluding fiscal 2012), and we expect it to turn profitable by fiscal 2023 on a GAAP basis. Palo Alto ended fiscal 2021 with $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents and total debt of $3.2 billion in 2023 and 2025 convertible senior notes. The $1.7 billion 2023 notes mature in June 2023 and have a 0.75% fixed interest rate per year paid semiannually, while the $2.0 billion of notes that mature June 2025 have a 0.375% interest rate paid semiannually. Palo Alto issued note hedges for both maturity dates to alleviate potential earnings per share dilution. The company announced a $1.0 billion share-repurchase authorization in February 2019, which was increased to $1.7 billion the following year with an expiration at the end of 2021, and has subsequently extended the program. Palo Alto continues to use share buybacks to return capital to shareholders, and believe that it will not pursue any dividend payouts.

The fair value estimate of $585 per share is consistent with a fiscal 2022 enterprise/sales ratio of 11 times and 4% free cash flow yield and upgraded its moat to wide.

Bulls Says 

  • Adding on modules to Palo Alto’s security platform could win greenfield opportunities and increase spending from existing customers. 
  • Palo Alto could showcase great operating margin leverage as it moves from brand creation into a perennial cybersecurity leader. Winning bids should be less costly as the incumbent, and we think Palo Alto is typically on the short list of potential vendors. 
  • The company is segueing into high-growth areas to supplement its firewall leadership. Analytics and machine learning capabilities could separate Palo Alto’s offerings.

Company Profile

Palo Alto Networks is a pure-play cybersecurity vendor that sells security appliances, subscriptions, and support into enterprises, government entities, and service providers. The company’s product portfolio includes firewall appliances, virtual firewalls, endpoint protection, cloud security, and cybersecurity analytics. The Santa Clara, California, firm was established in 2005 and sells its products worldwide.

(Source: Morningstar )

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd: Changing the cybersecurity mindset in a hybrid cloud world

Business Strategy and Outlook

Check Point Software Technologies is a top player in the cybersecurity market. It generates revenue from selling products, licenses, and subscriptions to protect networks, cloud environments, endpoints, and mobile users. Historically, firms purchased security point solutions to combat the latest threats and had to manage various software and hardware vendors’ products simultaneously. Changing the cybersecurity mindset in a hybrid cloud world, Check Point’s Infinity architecture consolidates various security products into a single management plane that deploys the latest updates across all attack vectors. With its vast customer base of over 100,000 businesses and renowned product leadership for existing threat technology, it is believed that Check Point’s consolidated security architecture provides ample upselling and cross-selling opportunities as enterprises increase their reliance on cloud-based products and distributed networking. With its growth lagging security peers, Check Point will ramp up sales and marketing efforts to showcase the advantage of its platform approach and next-generation security offerings. Check Point has adjusted its selling model to be subscription-based, and further ingrain the company with businesses that favor predictable operating expenditures. Its subscription-based Infinity Total Protection architecture offers all of Check Point’s products on an annual pay-per-user basis. This concept may help permeate Check Point’s product throughout an organization, since there are no additional costs for using more products, which then creates higher switching costs and better customer retention.

Check Point Software Moat Ratings upgraded to wide and increased fair value from $ 132 to  $137

Morningstar analysts have upgraded its moat roating for Check point Software to wide from narrow. For moat trend,analyst maintained a stable view of point in regards to the firm and increased its fair value estimate is now $137 from $132. Check Point’s shares attractive for patient investors in the steady, but lower growing firm.For Check Point’s stable trend, analyst  believes the company has a large, loyal customer base that relies upon its sticky products, but a conservative approach of investing in development and sales and marketing efforts has caused leading competitors to make inroads in the broader security landscape.

Financial Strength

Check Point can be viewed as financially stable firm that should continue to generate strong operating cash flow. .At the end of 2020, the company had no debt with $4.0 billion in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities. Check Point has never paid a dividend, and it is expected to continue to repurchase shares following the announcement of an additional $2 billion buyback authorized during 2020 (with a $350 million cap per quarter).Outside of the repurchase program, it is also expected that Check Point to primarily use its cash for operating expenditures to capitalize on customers requiring cloud-based threat protection. Additionally, Check Point will continue to make tuck-in acquisitions to bolster its presence in the cloud and mobile-based security markets.

Bulls Say 

  • Customers may adopt Check Point’s Infinity platform over using multiple vendors for cybersecurity protection. This should further embed the company’s products and increase switching costs. 
  • Check Point’s movement into cloud-based and mobile user security offers large growth opportunities to supplement its network security portfolio. Its existing customer base may prefer Check Point for security consistency. 
  • Increasing subscription-based sales and growing recurring revenue should further bolster Check Point’s stellar operating margin profile.

Company Profile

Check Point Software Technologies is a pure-play cybersecurity vendor. The company offers solutions for network, endpoint, cloud, and mobile security in addition to security management. Check Point, a software specialist, sells to enterprises, businesses, and consumers. At the end of 2020, 45% of its revenue was from the Americas, 43% from Europe, and 12% from Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa. The firm, based in Tel Aviv, Israel, was founded in 1993 and has about 5,000 employees.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Allspring Diversified Income Builder Fund – Class C: A fund providing high income

Fund Objective

The investment seeks long-term total return, consisting of current income and capital appreciation.

Approach

The strategy targets a yield of 4%-5% and allocates 60%-90% of assets in fixed income, with the remainder in stocks. The team may also employ tactical shifts, vetted by the firm’s tactical trading council, by trading currencies or equity sector indexes, but these can be difficult to execute well consistently. Since introducing a multisleeved approach in early 2018, this strategy has undergone three prospectus benchmark shifts that signal it continues to experiment with its profile. The most recent adjustment (February 2020) decreased the equity exposure by 10 percentage points to 25% in order to make room for a more diversified bond sleeve. Other adjustments include the removal of a REITs sleeve in September 2018, the addition of a securitized bond sleeve in March 2019, and the introduction of an options sleeve in January 2020.

Portfolio 

As fixed-income markets have proved richly priced, the portfolio managers cited more attractive capital appreciation and dividends in the equity space, prompting an uptick in the equity holdings to roughly 38% here by September 2021. Within that equity sleeve, technology stocks (Microsoft MSFT is a holding) and healthcare stocks (such as Bausch Health Companies BHC, DaVita DVA, and AbbeVie ABBV) occupied roughly 27% and 17% of assets, respectively. 

High-yield bonds dominate the fixed-income portion of the strategy (59% of the portfolio as of September 2021), and it is worth noting that these are more sensitive to equity markets than the investment-grade fare employed by many peers for downside protection in stressed markets. Other bond sleeves here are modest but diversifying relative to the portfolio’s historical profile and include municipal bonds (3%) and securitized bonds (2%).

People

Kandarp Acharya as co manager alongside Margie Patel, who was the sole manager since 2007 but is departing this strategy (though she remains on Allspring Diversified Capital Builder EKBYX) as of Dec. 13, 2021. This move is accompanied by the arrival of quantitative researcher Petros Bocray, a 15-year firm veteran and Acharya’s collaborator on Allspring Asset Allocation EAAIX.

Performance

Over the strategy’s short tenure with its new contours (January 2018 through November 2021), the 5.5% annualized return of its R6 share class modestly outpaced the 5.3% return of the Morningstar Conservative. Target Risk Index and trailed the 6.7% return of its custom benchmark (60% ICE BoA U.S. Cash Pay HY Index, 25% MSCI ACWI, and 15% Barclays Aggregate Index). From an absolute return perspective, the strategy also generated a higher return than the 5.0% median of its typical allocation–15% to 30% equity Morningstar Category peer.This strategy has a riskier profile than many strategies in the category, particularly during stress periods, resulting in risk-adjusted returns (as measured by the Sharpe ratio) that trail all comparative points (typical category peer and benchmark as well as custom benchmark) over the aforementioned period. In three recent stress periods (when energy prices plummeted from June 2015 to February 2016, the 2018 fourth-quarter high-yield sell-off, and the coronavirus-driven market panic of Feb. 20-March 23, 2020), the fund lagged its category index by more than double and trailed its typical peer.

Top 10 Holdings

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About the fund

The Fund seeks high current income from investments in income-producing securities. The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its assets in income producing securities, including debt securities of any quality, dividend paying common and preferred stocks, convertible bonds, and  

derivatives. The strategy targets a yield of 4%-5% and allocates 60%-90% of assets in fixed income, with the remainder in stocks. The team may also employ tactical shifts, vetted by the firm’s tactical trading council, by trading currencies or equity sector indexes, but these can be difficult to execute well consistently.

(Source:Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Tyson Sets Sights on Improving Long-Term Efficiency

Business Strategy and Outlook

Several secular trends are affecting Tyson’s long-term growth prospects. While U.S. consumers (86% of fiscal 2021 sales) are limiting their consumption of red and processed meat (69% of Tyson’s sales), they are consuming more chicken (29%). International demand for meat has been strong, and although Tyson’s overseas sales mix is just 14%, it is likely to increase over time, as this is an area of acquisition focus. The beef segment has been a bright spot in Tyson’s portfolio in recent years, as strong international demand, coupled with a drought-induced beef shortage in Australia, has increased the segment’s operating margins to 10% over the past four years from 2% prior to 2016. 

Conversely, the chicken segment has suffered from executional missteps that have resulted in structurally higher costs relative to competitors. About 80% of Tyson’s products are undifferentiated (commoditized), so it is difficult for them to command price premiums and higher returns. Although Tyson is the largest U.S. producer of beef and chicken, we do not believe this affords it a scale-based cost advantage, as its segment margins tend to be in line with or below those of its smaller peers.

Financial Strength

Tyson’s financial health as solid and don’t see any issues to suggest that it will be unable to meet its financial obligations. While Tyson generates healthy cash flow and is committed to retaining its investment-grade credit rating, the business is inherently cyclical, with many factors outside of its control. But management has made changes to improve the predictability of earnings. Chicken pricing contracts, which now link costs and prices, and a greater mix of prepared foods (from 10% in 2014 to the current 19%) both serve as stabilizers. 

In terms of leverage, net debt/adjusted EBITDA stood at a rather low 1.2 times at the end of fiscal 2021, below Tyson’s typical range of 2-3 times. At the end of September, Tyson held $2.5 billion cash and had full availability of its $2.25 billion revolving credit agreement. Together, this should be sufficient to meet the firm’s needs over the next year, namely about $2 billion in capital expenditures, nearly $700 million in dividends, and $1.1 billion in debt maturities. Management has expressed a commitment to enhancing the income returned to shareholders in the form of its dividend (targeting a 2.0%-2.5% yield over time).

Bulls Say’s

  • China’s significant protein shortage resulting from African swine fever should boost near-term protein demand, while the country’s continued moderate increase in per capita consumption of proteins will drive sustainable growth. 
  • While investor angst over chicken price-fixing litigation has weighed on shares, Tyson’s recently announced settlements materially reduce this overhang. 
  • In the current inflationary environment, Tyson’s cost pass-through model limits potential profit margin pressure

Company Profile 

Tyson Foods is the largest U.S. producer of processed chicken and beef. It’s also a large producer of processed pork and protein-based products under the brands Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Sara Lee, Aidells, State Fair, and Raised & Rooted, to name a few. Tyson sells 86% of its products through various U.S. channels, including retailers (48%), food service (28%), and other packaged food and industrial companies (10%). In addition, 14% of the company’s revenue comes from exports to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Europe, China, and Japan.

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Bank of Queensland brings forward cost savings to offset margin pressure

Business Strategy and Outlook

Bank of Queensland is one of Australia’s top-10 largest banks, but is considerably smaller than the four major Australian banks. Preceding the global financial crisis, the bank grew aggressively via acquisitions and the rollout of its distinctive owner-manager branch franchise model. However, expanding the branch network and diversifying away from traditional residential lending came at a cost, with additional equity required to fund growth, significantly increased bad debts, and multiple banking systems, which resulted in deteriorating cost/income and returns on equity. 

The aim is to ensure the bank is more competitive, particularly in the home loan market, but this investment giving the bank any competitive edge. At best, it can narrow the gap to peers, but with the big investment budgets of the majors, those innovations are likely to be hard to keep up with. Bank of Queensland has branches owned by branch managers and corporate branches. The model has the potential for the bank to outperform its peers on customer service, with owner branch managers building relationships with local customers, and niche business lending specialists with an understanding of borrower needs and industry.

Financial Strength

The capital structure and balance sheet provide comfort that the bank can manage a large increase in loan losses associated with COVID-19, but it remains the greatest threat to the bank’s capital position. Common equity Tier 1 capital was 9.8% as at August 2021, well above APRA’s 8.5% minimum capital benchmark for standardised banks. It is expected that the bank will pay out around 60% to 65% of earnings given the credit growth outlook, elevated investment in the banking platform, and integration of ME Bank. Our fair value estimate for no-moat rated Bank of Queensland is unchanged at AUD 8.50.

With the elevated savings rate in 2020, the bank has been able to increase its share of funding from customer deposits to 70% as at Aug. 31, 2021, up from pre-COVID-19 levels of 64% as at Aug. 31, 2019. In March 2020 the RBA announced the Term Funding Facility, or TFF, which provided three-year funding at 0.25%. From Nov. 4, 2020, new drawdowns would pay 0.1%. The initial funding available via the TFF was set at 3% of the bank’s outstanding loan balance, with an additional 2% of balances announced in November.

Bulls Say’s

  • The appointment of new senior executives and a clean out of the troubled commercial loan portfolio has ensured a more risk-conscious culture. 
  • Substantial capital raisings bolstered the balance sheet, ensuring that the bank satisfies capital rules and can still fund investments in technology and expand loan balances. 
  • Productivity improvements not only lead to improved operating margins, but a more streamlined loan approval process lifts mortgage growth rates. 
  • Management extract greater cost and revenue synergies from the acquisition of ME Bank.

Company Profile 

Bank of Queensland, or BOQ, is an Australia-based bank offering home loans, personal finance, and commercial loans. BOQ operates both owner-managed and corporate branches, and is the owner of Virgin Money Australia. Its BOQ business includes the BOQ branded commercial lending activity, BOQ Finance and BOQ Specialist businesses. The division provides tailored business banking solutions including commercial lending, equipment finance and leasing, cashflow finance, foreign exchange, interest rate hedging, transaction banking, and deposit solutions for commercial customers

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Global stocks

Burberry Group Plc 1H22 revenue recovery with strong mainline and digital full – price sales

Investment Thesis

  • The rejuvenation of Burberry under a new creative director is underway, in our view. 
  • Leveraged to increasing consumer consumption in Asia (China). 
  • Leveraged to tourism flows (international travel) as consumers seek out experiences. 
  • Building a credible offering in the important category of leather goods.
  • Improving cash flow generation and a progressive dividend policy.
  • Strong balance sheet, which provides the Company flexibility.   
  • Capital management initiatives (e.g., Share Buyback). 

Key Risks

  • Execution risk with Burberry turnaround under new management team.
  • Fails to build a credible offering in the Leather Goods segment.  
  • Increased competition from existing players and new emerging brands. 
  • Value destructive acquisition of brand(s). 
  • Macroeconomic conditions deteriorate globally, impacting consumer spending and less tourism movements (i.e. travelers overseas).
  • Geopolitical tensions among regions restricting funds & tourists flow or a breakout of health epidemic impacting tourists flow in Europe / Asia. 
  • Significant change at the senior management level (Creative Director).  

Strong Margin accretion – driven by full sales price sales and cost out initatives

Management’s strategy to exit mainline and digital markdowns and the deliberate tight management of outlet business resulted in a significant shift towards full-price sales (within comparable store sales growth of +37% over pcp, full price sales advanced +49%, growing +121% and +10% across 1Q and 2Q, respectively), which underpinned an improvement of +130bps (at CER) in gross margin to 69.3% despite significant pressures from Brexit duties and channel mix. BRBY saw GBP 20m in cost savings (achieved GBP 55m of annualized savings, bringing cumulative savings to GBP 205m and providing a completely restructured cost base), delivering an improvement of +11.2% (at CER) in adjusted operating margin to 16.2%.

Company Profile 

Burberry Group Plc (BRBY), listed on the London Stock Exchange, is a global luxury brand with a British heritage. The Company designs and sources apparel and accessories, which it distributes via retail, digital, wholesale and licensing channels globally. 

(Source: BanyanTree)

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