Investment Thesis
On valuation grounds relative to the current share price, ABC trades fair value.
- Trading on 2-Yr PE-multiple of 10.2x and dividend yield of 5.1% represents good value at these levels.
- Macro conditions remain uncertain in key regions.
- Strong pipeline of infrastructure projects over the next 2 years is a positive but timing and execution is a risk.
- Solid balance sheet position provides some flexibility to the Company to pursue growth.
- Leading positions as a lime producer, concrete products producer and cement and clinker supplier.
- Outlook for lime looks relatively positive with higher infrastructure projects and resource sector activity.
Key Risks
- Softer sales volume than expected.
- Loss of market share to competitors or imports and pressure on pricing.
- Softer than expected pricing increases.
- Higher than expected energy prices.
- Execution risk in relation to Company’s cost-out and vertical integration strategies.
- Deterioration of A$ relative to other currencies.
- Unfavorable weather impacts.
Key Highlights: Relative to the pcp and on a constant currency basis:
- Revenue increased +8.4% to $1.7bn, driven by price increases and volume growth across most product lines.
- Underlying EBITDA (including property profits of $57.6m) increased +7.7% to $295.3m with margin down -10bps to 17.4%, negatively impacted by increased costs and wet weather which impacted ability to deliver products efficiently, thus more than offsetting price and volume increases across some product lines.
- Underlying NPAT decreased -0.9% to $118m and statutory NPAT declined -12.1% to $102.6m, impacted by higher operating costs as a result of inflation, particularly energy costs, and wet weather events.
- Operating cashflow declined -14.8% to $166.4m, largely due to lower earnings and an increase in working capital associated with higher receivable and inventory levels.
- Capex increased +81.6% to $255.1m, largely due to the spend on the Kwinana Upgrade project, with total capex split between stay-in-business capital of $123.9m, up +16.9% and development capital of $131.2m, up +280.3%.
- Net debt increased +31.8% y/y to $576.4m due to the Zanows acquisition and Kwinana Upgrade project, partially offset by surplus land sales, resulting in a leverage ratio increasing +0.4x y/y to 2x and gearing increasing +980bps y/y to 44.3%, with both remain well within banking covenants (though at higher end).
- Underlying ROFE of 9.5%, declined -110bps y/y, reflecting investments in Kwinana Upgrade project and the Zanows acquisition.
- The Board scrapped the final dividend to preserve capital required for the completion of Kwinana Upgrade project, resulting in a total FY22 dividend of 5cps, down -60% y/y.
Company Description
Adbri Ltd (ABC) is an Australia listed construction materials and liming producing company. ABC is Australia’s leading (1) lime producer in the minerals processing industry; (2) concrete products producer; and (3) cement and clinker importer. ABC is Australia’s number two cement and clinker supplier to the Australian construction industry and number four concrete and aggregates producer.
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