Business Strategy and Outlook
For more than 50 years, Essential Utilities–formerly Aqua America–was one of the few pure-play water utilities in the United States. But its $4.3 billion acquisition of Peoples Gas in March 2020 made the company nearly 50% larger and diversified its earnings mix. It is expected that the new gas business to contribute about 30% of earnings on a normalized basis.
Essential’s gas and water utility earnings are mostly rate regulated. The management will have to prioritize infrastructure investment growth and a robust dividend, like most other utilities. Essential’s water utility acquisition strategy lifts our earnings-growth rate to 8% annually during the next five years, a little higher than most other utilities’ growth outlook.
Although efficiency savings have reduced retail water use for several decades, Essential has been able to grow earnings and the dividend by replacing and upgrading infrastructure that is decades old. It is also expected that Essential will grow by acquiring small, typically municipal-owned water systems. In the U.S., 85% of the population is served by a municipal water utility, offering a long runway of acquisition growth opportunities.
Similarly, expect little natural gas usage growth at Peoples Gas, which had been owned by a private equity group. But the gas business still should produce steady earnings growth as Essential replaces and upgrades the system infrastructure.
Fair market value laws in several states support Essential’s water business acquisition strategy. These laws require Essential to pay municipalities at least the assessed value of the system it acquires and allow Essential to add these assets to rate base at the assessed value rather than historical cost. The municipalities benefit by ensuring they get fair prices, and Essential shareholders benefit by ensuring the company doesn’t overpay for growth. In many cases, these deals are immediately value-accretive. Recent FMV legislation in Kentucky and West Virginia opens acquisition opportunities near areas Essential already serves.
Financial Strength
Essential maintains a capital structure in line with its regulatory allowed capital structure for ratemaking purposes and leverage metrics in line with high investment-grade credit ratings and doesn’t expect that to change. It is expected Essential to issue new debt to fund growth investments and acquisitions in the coming years. It is not expecting any material new equity needs after raising $300 million in 2021. With constructive regulation, expect Essential will be able to use its cash flow to fund most of its equity investment needs during the next five years. Essential has paid an annual dividend since 1945 and increased it at least 5% for each of the last 25 years. Essential will be able to continue growing the dividend at this rate or higher while staying below management’s 65% maximum pay-out ratio threshold, which is in line with Essential’s peer utilities.
Bulls Say’s
- Constructive regulation allows Essential to raise rates through surcharges or rate cases to reduce regulatory lag and enhance cash flow available to pay the dividend and invest in growth projects.
- Fair market valuation state laws allow Essential to make municipal water utility acquisitions immediately value-accretive for shareholders.
- Essential has raised its dividend 31 times in the last 30 years, including 29 consecutive increases of more than 5%.
Company Profile
Essential Utilities is a Pennsylvania-based holding company for U.S. water, wastewater, and natural gas distribution utilities. The company’s water business serves 3 million people in eight states. Nearly three fourths of its water earnings come from Pennsylvania, primarily suburban Philadelphia. It also has a small market-based water business that provides water and water services to third parties, notably natural gas producers. Its $4.3 billion Peoples Gas acquisition that closed in March 2020 adds 750,000 gas distribution customers in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
(Source: MorningStar)
General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.