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ETFs ETFs

Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF

The index weights stocks by market cap, which channels the market’s view on the relative value of each holding. This is an efficient approach. Large-cap stocks attract widespread investor attention, so they tend to be priced reasonably accurately. Market-cap weighting also helps curb turnover and the associated transaction costs, with help from comprehensive index buffers. Index buffers improve diversification as well, allowing stocks to wander into value territory without trading them immediately. So, although this portfolio does not overlap with its value counterpart like most style index funds, it holds blend stocks like Home Depot HD and Costco COST that aid diversification. Its value-growth tilt mirrors the large-growth Morningstar Category average. The fund’s sector allocation approximates the category average as well. Market-cap weighting gives the fund a slightly larger-than-average market-cap orientation, but that shouldn’t affect performance much. Overall, this portfolio mimics the contours of the category norm, which accentuates the fund’s cost advantage and should help it outstrip its category peers. Mimicking the category average portfolio has caused this fund to look somewhat concentrated. At the end of April 2021, its 10 largest holdings represented more than half the portfolio. Tech stocks comprised about 44% of the portfolio. Investors may pause at this concentration, but it reflects the state of the large-growth market and shouldn’t translate to volatile category-relative performance.

This fund has posted terrific returns, outpacing the category average by 2.21 percentage points annually over the 10 years through April 2021, with comparable volatility. A low cash drag, best-in class fee, and favorable exposure to communications stocks have driven much of the outperformance. This fund relies solely on the market’s sentiment to weight its portfolio, so it does not shy away from stocks its active peers may consider overvalued. That has worked out well in the communication services sector, where the most richly valued firms have performed among the best.

Taking larger than-average stakes in Netflix NFLX and Alphabet GOOG, for example, proved to be a winning approach, as the companies have continuously exceeded steep expectations over the past decade. Unlike many of its active peers, this fund is always fully invested. This aids performance during market rallies but can hinder it in turbulent stretches. The fund has held up well, though, capturing only 94% of the category average’s downside and 104% of its upside over the past decade. This fund’s greatest performance edge is its fee. At 0.04%, its expense ratio ranks among the cheapest in the category, and low turnover leads to low transaction costs.

Source:Morningstar

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Commodities

Downer EDI Ltd

But the fair value impact of the earnings declines is countered by boosted cash levels from the asset sales. It should be noted the company still provides no earnings guidance for fiscal 2021 given uncertainty around coronavirus.

Our unchanged fair value equates to a fiscal 2025 EV/ EBITDA of 6.2, P/E of 14.5, and dividend yield of 4.1% on a reinstated 60% payout. We now assume a 5-year EBITDA CAGR of 5.9% to AUD 945 million by fiscal 2025, and a midcycle EBITDA margin of 7.4%. The margin forecast is above the 5-year historical average nearer 6.5% and first half fiscal 2021’s 6.0%. This anticipates a recovery from Spotless Group which recorded a 6.4% margin in first-half fiscal 2021, down from levels nearer 8.0% prior to fiscal 2020.

At around AUD 5.60, Downer shares have more than doubled from sub-AUD 2.60 March 2020 lows, and are now only somewhat undervalued. Downer is exiting mining in pursuit of more capital-light and government-backed revenue business models in urban services including in operating, maintaining, servicing, and supply. If mining cools as per our thesis, Downer could be viewed in a more favourable light by a market currently enamoured with mining.

Downer finished December 2021 with net debt of AUD 1.1 billion excluding operating leases–improved on June 2020’s AUD 1.5 billion–gearing ND/(ND+E) at a comfortable 28%, down from 36% six months prior. We now estimate net debt at around AUD 550 million, following the latest round of asset sales, ND/(ND+E) at just 15%. This would have net debt/EBITDA at a conservative sub 1.0. But Downer says its optimal capital structure is net debt at 2-2.5 times EBITDA, meaning capital returns and acquisitions could feature.

In the June half to date, Downer has undertaken combined asset sales of AUD 605 million, of which proceeds of AUD 476 million have so far been received. This includes sale of Open Cut Mining West for over AUD 200 million, sale of Downer Blasting Services for AUD 62 million, sale of plant and equipment to Byrnecut at Carrrapateena mine for AUD 70 million, sale of 70% of laundries for AUD 155 million, and sale of the Otraco tyre management business to Bridgestone Corporation for AUD 79 million.

Remaining noncore assets on the block including Mining Open Cut East and hospitality with the sale process underway. Downer currently has AUD 36.2 billion of work-in-hand, equivalent to a healthy three years of revenue at current rates. The most recently announced is a AUD 900 million eight-year contract to operate and maintain Sydney Northern Beaches buses through Downer’s 49% participation in the Keolis Downer joint venture.

Profile

Downer operates engineering, construction, and maintenance; transport; technology and communications; utilities; mining; and rail units. But the future of Downer is focused on urban services, and mining and high-risk construction businesses are being sold down. The engineering, construction, and maintenance business has exposure to mining and energy projects through consulting services. The mining division provides contracted mining services, including mine planning, open-cut mining, underground mining, blasting, drilling, crushing, and haulage. The rail division services and maintains passenger rolling stock, including locomotives and wagons.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

WiseTech Global Ltd – Share Price Jump

The narrow economic moat, which is based on switching costs, and strong annual client retention rate of around 99%, should protect earnings from competition as the business grows. We expect revenue growth and the scalable business model to drive margin expansion, and we forecast an improvement in the EBIT margin from 19% in fiscal 2020 to 33% by fiscal 2030. However, we expect ongoing investment in capitalised research and development to cause weak cash conversion for the foreseeable future.

Key Investment Considerations

  • WiseTech to continue growing quickly as its global software-as-a-service logistics platform replaces legacy and in-house software, and we forecast a revenue CAGR of 13% over the next decade.
  • WiseTech had an annual customer retention rate of over 99% in each of the four years to fiscal 2016, which we expect to continue for the foreseeable future.
  • WiseTech founder Richard White retains significant influence over the company as its CEO and largest shareholder.
  • WiseTech has a narrow economic moat based on customer switching costs, as evidenced by a very high customer retention rate of over 99% for the past four years. The economic moat should protect returns and
  • margins from competition.
  • WiseTech’s revenue is expected to continue growing strongly over the next decade as its logistics software platform replaces in-house and legacy software solutions. A high degree of operating leverage should create even stronger EPS growth.
  • The capital-light business model should enable the balance sheet to remain debt-free, with operating cash flow covering research and development spending and dividend payments.
  • WiseTech competes against much larger competitors, such as SAP, Oracle, and in-house developed software of the major logistics companies.
  • Cash conversion is poor due to reinvestment in the business, meaning the company must achieve earnings growth to justify this investment.
  • Disclosure is not as extensive as we would like, and the founder, major shareholder, and CEO Richard White arguably creates key-person risk.

 (Source: Morningstar)

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

MFS Intl Diversification R6

As expected, this fund of funds added MFS International Large Cap Value MKVHX as the sixth fund on its roster in 2020 after holding the same five funds during for its first 16 years. MFS International Large Cap Value uses a value process, while the five original funds (MFS Research International MRSKX, MFS International Intrinsic Value MINJX, MFS International Growth MGRDX, MFS International New Discovery MIDLX, and MFS Emerging Markets Equity MEMJX) use blend or growth disciplines. The 2020 expansion makes this already diversified fund even more so.

The processes of the six underlying funds are sound and complementary, and provide this fund with an edge. Steven Gorham and David Shindler of MFS International Large Cap Value look for strong fundamentals and attractive valuations as Gorham previously did with other managers at MFS Value MEIKX. The team at MFS International Intrinsic Value seeks sustainable competitive edges and other strengths. The teams at MFS International Growth, MFS International New Discovery, and MFS Emerging Markets–which previously or currently have comanagers in common–all use the same valuation-conscious quality growth discipline. The team at MFS Research International seeks fundamental strengths and reasonable valuations. And though MFS International Large Cap Value doesn’t have an Analyst Rating and thus no Process Pillar rating, MFS Value MEIKX has a Process score of High, while four of the five of this fund’s five long-time funds have Process ratings of Above Average.

Gorham and Shindler are seasoned and skilled. Gorham has a solid record as comanager on a value-oriented global fund as well as strong record a comanager at MFS Value, and Shindler has succeeded as a comanager on a U.K. large-cap strategy. The teams of the other five funds are also strong.

The Fund’s Approach

MFS International Large Cap Value MKVHX was added as the sixth strategy on this fund of funds’ roster as expected in mid-2020, and its weight was raised to its target allocation of 15% during the second half of the year. The weights in MFS International Intrinsic Value MINJX and MFS International Growth MGRDX were lowered to 15% each from 22.5% each. The weight to MFS International New Discovery MIDLX remained at 10%. The weight in MFS Research International MRSKX was lowered to 27.5% from 30.0% during the second half of 2020, while the allocation to MFS Emerging Markets Equity MEMJX was increased to 17.5% from 15%. Steven Gorham and David Shindler of MFS International Large Cap Value look for strong fundamentals as well as attractive valuations (as Gorham previously did successfully with other comanagers at MFS Value MEIKX). The team at MFS International Intrinsic Value seeks sustainable competitive edges and other strengths.

The teams at MFS International Growth, MFS International New Discovery, and MFS Emerging Markets all use the same valuation-conscious quality growth discipline. And the team at MFS Research International looks for fundamental strengths and reasonable valuations. Adding a sixth fund made sense for diversification reasons. The six underlying processes are sound, complementary, and proven, supporting an Above Average Process rating.

The Fund’s Portfolio

This fund of funds added a foreign large-value fund to its roster in mid-2020 to complement the one foreign large-blend offering, two foreign large-growth funds, one foreign small/mid- growth offering, and one diversified emerging market fund it has owned since its 2004 inception. With this addition to its roster, its already quite wide-ranging portfolio has become even more so. It owned 597 stocks and devoted 16% of its assets to its top 10 as of April 2021 versus 536 and 18% as of May 2020. (The typical actively run foreign large-blend fund owns around 80 stocks and devotes roughly 25% of its assets to its top 10.) This fund is also even more diversified by style, sector, and country now. But all six of the underlying funds use distinctive strategies and allow their stock selection to lead to moderate sector and country overweighting’s, so this funds portfolio isn’t so broad that it’s completely bland. Indeed, several of the underlying funds have found a significant number of attractive investments in the consumer defensive sector, so this fund has a 14.1% stake there versus 9.5% for its average peer and 8.6% for the MSCI All Country World Index ex USA category benchmark. It also has a fairly modest stake in the consumer cyclicals sector. This fund has an average market cap of $38.7 billion versus $54.4 billion for its average peer and $46.9 billion for the index.

The Fund’s Performance

This fund of funds has lagged as most international stocks have gyrated their way to big gains over the past 12 months. Its Institutional share class gained 39.6% during the year ending April 20, 2021, whereas the average member of the foreign large-blend Morningstar Category returned 43.7% and the MSCI ACWI ex USA category benchmark gained 43.0%. This fund of funds was slowed by the fact that the two foreign large-growth offerings and one foreign small/mid-growth fund on its roster couldn’t keep up with their bolder rivals. Finally, this fund has also posted superior risk-adjusted returns during the trailing three-, five-, 10-, and 15-year periods. Over the longest period, the Institutional share class has earned a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return of 2.3% versus Risk Adjusted Returns of negative 0.2% for both its average peer and the index.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Technology Stocks

Strength in Notebook Demand Continues to Drive HP as Print Picks Up; Maintaining $23 FVE

We believe personal computer purchases will contract as more households primarily use smartphones for computing tasks and as cloud-based software upgrades can delay the impetus to upgrade computer hardware. HP’s personal systems business, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations, yields a narrow operating margin that we do not foresee expanding. The company’s growth focus areas of device-as-a-service, or DaaS, and expanding its gaming and premium product offerings should help stem losses from its core expertise of selling basic computer systems. Contractual service offerings like HP’s DaaS are alluring to businesses since IT teams can offload hardware management, receive analytics to proactively mitigate computer issues, and pay monthly instead of facing unpredictable large capital expenditures.

HP’s contractual managed print services, in additional to focusing on graphics, A3, and 3D printers are moves in the correct direction, but the overarching trend of lower printing demand should stymie revenue growth within printing, in our view. HP is combatting the challenge of lower-cost generic ink and toner alternatives in the marketplace. The company is innovating in a mature market, but we believe competitors can mimic HP’s successes or cause price disruption. HP’s scale may enable success within the 3D printing market; even though HP is late entrant, its movement into printing metals could cause customer adoption. Our largest concern with the printing market is the overall trend of screen reading replacing printed pages, and we do not believe HP’s initiatives can offset the macro trend.

Fair Value and Profit Enhancers

Our fair value estimate for HP to $23 per share. This fair value estimate represents a fiscal 2021 enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA of 5 times and a free cash flow yield of 15%.

ur model assumes that HP’s market segments of personal systems and printing decline over the longer term. Smartphones can be used for most PC tasks and we believe that the computer hardware refresh cycle could grow beyond the historical average of three to four years as cloud-based software updates extend the life of existing hardware.

The printing market, in general, is being hampered by the trend of printing less items for economic and environmental purposes. We surmise that HP may garner some printing growth from its movement into the A3, graphics, and 3D printing markets; however, declines in HP’s historical core printing segments may offset any potential gains. Through fiscal 2025, we expect HP’s gross margins to remain in the high teens while its operating margins oscillate around the mid-single digits.

HP’s Company Profile

HP Inc. is a leading provider of computers, printers, and printer supplies. The company’s three operating business segments are its personal systems, containing notebooks, desktops, and workstations; and its printing segment which contains supplies, consumer hardware, and commercial hardware; and corporate investments. In 2015, Hewlett-Packard was separated into HP Inc. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Palo Alto, California-based company sells on a global scale.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks Shares Technical Picks

“Can Lives Here” Is No Marketing Gimmick for Commonwealth Bank

Amber markets itself as a provider of cheap electricity, which Commonwealth Bank will promote to its mobile banking customers. Little Birdie will help the bank provide rewards and exclusive offers for Commonwealth Bank customers, probably a way of winning back share from the likes of Afterpay. The initiatives will not appeal to everyone, with these product enhancements likely appealing more to younger demographics who in the future become more profitable home loan customers. Generating annual profit north of AUD 8 billion, the bank has the luxury to: 1) invest in new and even unproven products; and 2) respond to consumer preferences.

It’s hard to say if recent investments will lead to material revenue windfalls, but we think the bank’s relatively small investments make sense as it attempts to build more engaged and satisfied customers. Our buy now, pay later analyst expects the market to grow materially over the next 10 years, but the incumbents will lose share, partly due to the major banks rolling out their own offerings. Commonwealth Bank shares are up over 50% in the last 12 months, and while we agree confidence in the earnings and dividend outlook is warranted, shares trade at a 30% premium to our fair value estimate. The fully franked dividend of AUD 4 per share, or 4% yield is likely attracting retail investors, but we caution against chasing shares for income. It is not hard to imagine the share price falling more than AUD 4 in a tough year, or even a month for that matter. Hopefully the earnings share price volatility of 2020 has not already been forgotten.

Commonwealth Bank’s consumer lending business, less than 2.5% of loans but we estimate around 8.5% of operating income, includes credit cards which are being impacted by growth in the buy now, pay later, or BNPL, sector. It’s not a surprise the bank is fighting back. It owns 5% of Klarna (50% of Klarna Australia), has the CBA BNPL offering, and a no-interest card called Neo.

Company Profile

Commonwealth Bank is Australia’s largest bank with operations spanning Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. Its core business is the provision of retail, business, and institutional banking services. An exit from wealth management is ongoing, with the bank still holding a 45% stake in Colonial First State. The bank has placed a greater emphasis on banking in recent years.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

McMillan Shakespeare Ltd

McMillan is the leader in providing salary packaging and novated leases in Australia, and enjoys strong long-term relationships stemming from also being the first outsourced salary packaging service provider in the country. Its integrated business model allows cross-selling of products and also provides bargaining power when sourcing motor vehicles from dealers.

However, these advantages have not delivered significantly higher operating margins than its other major peer, SmartGroup Corporation. McMillan also lacks pricing power, having had to reduce margins to retain its largest employer customer–the Queensland state government—in 2016. Furthermore, the industry’s relatively low capital requirements suggests that barriers to entry are low.

Major risks include material changes to the current fringe benefits tax, or FBT, concessions in Australia, and an economic downturn which will affect employment conditions. These risks have certainly been amplified in the prevailing COVID-19 outbreak, which is likely to see higher unemployment and a recession. Such an environment would reduce demand for salary packaging and novated leases.

Australian government has laid out around AUD 320 billion in fiscal stimulus to date (or about 16% of GDP), with potentially more follow-ups. It’s possible that a future Australian government could revisit the FBT regime to generate more revenue in the face of federal budget deficits. If this were to occur, the high growth and returns generated by McMillan’s salary packaging and novated leasing business–its main source of revenue–would be compromised.

 (Source: Morningstar)

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General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Lazard International Strategic Equity

Lead manager Mark Little, based in London, joined Lazard in 1997 and has run this fund since its October 2005 inception. The other three managers have all served this strategy since at least 2009, meaning the group has worked together extensively. Lazard’s large and experienced international and emerging-markets equity teams provide the managers with excellent support.

The team’s all-cap relative-value strategy allows the managers to pursue opportunities wherever they see fit. Ideas sometimes come from quantitative screens, though the managers and analysts often uncover ideas themselves through their own research. Two of the four comanagers have accounting backgrounds, allowing the team to conduct thorough analysis on the attractiveness of a company based on their preferences. They search for companies with an alluring combination of valuation and profitability, though the portfolio’s profitability metrics fell in line with those of the MSCI EAFE benchmark as of March 2021.

As with many all-cap mandates, the resulting portfolio’s characteristics vary, and the managers have navigated well without becoming too dependent on any type of stock. The portfolio’s average market cap nearly tripled to $30.8 billion from $11.8 billion since 2013 as small- and midcap opportunities faded and large-cap stocks surged (though that tally is still lower than its median peer and benchmark). The managers aren’t afraid of making bets on specific countries either: The March 2021 portfolio had an 8% allocation to each of Canada and Ireland, while the benchmark had less than 1%

The Fund’s Approach

A flexible and well-executed approach earns this strategy an Above Average Process rating. Like other Lazard strategies, this one uses a malleable relative-value strategy that ranges across the market-cap spectrum. The team searches for companies with an attractive combination of valuation and profitability, a balance that landed the March 2021 portfolio squarely in the large-blend section of the Morningstar Style Box. However, the strategy’s flexibility also allows the portfolio’s style to drift to where the managers see opportunity, and it sat in the large-growth category for several years prior to 2019.

Quantitative screens sometimes produce ideas, though the managers and Lazard’s deep analyst bench often find ideas through their own research. Two of the four comanagers have accounting backgrounds, allowing the team to conduct nuanced analysis on the attractiveness of a company to see if it aligns with their preferences. The management team works with the analysts on top-down analysis (like economic and political situations) to supplement its fundamental research as well. If the managers decide to invest, they usually replace an existing holding, resulting in a portfolio that consistently holds between 65 and 75 stocks.

The Fund’s Portfolio

While the portfolio invested 40% of its assets in mid-cap stocks in 2013, manager Michael Bennett notes that appealing small- and mid-cap stocks have been more difficult to find in recent years. As a result, the portfolio’s stake in mid-caps had fallen to 12% by March 2021 while positions in large- and giant-cap companies rose. The portfolio’s average market cap tripled to $35 billion from $11.8 billion over that time, though it’s still lower than its median foreign large-blend peer and MSCI EAFE benchmark. Despite the managers’ emphases on financial health and valuation, the portfolio’s profitability metrics fall in line with those of the benchmark and median peer while price metrics are marginally higher.

The portfolio’s style has drifted toward the large-blend category from large growth in recent years, though risk factor exposures have always tended to align closely with the core-oriented benchmark. The managers want stock selection to drive returns, but meaningful sector bets are common, such as the 5-percentage-point underweighting in tech and a similar-size overweighting in industrials in the March 2021 portfolio. Investors here should also expect meaningful country bets, such as the 13-percentage-point underweighting in Japanese stocks in March and 8-percentagepoint over-weightings to Canadian and Irish stocks that month.

The Fund’s Performance

This strategy performed poorly in early 2020’s pandemic-related sell-off. It lost 35.5% from Jan. 22 through March 23, worse than the MSCI EAFE benchmark’s 33.7% decline. Investments in several out-of-benchmark Canadian companies dragged on returns, such as National Bank of Canada and Suncor Energy, which respectively suffered as both interest rates and oil prices plummeted. The strategy’s positions in several air-travel stocks also hurt, such as Air France, Airbus, and Canadian manufacturer CAE Inc. CAE.

Over longer periods, however, performance has been more impressive. From its October 2005 inception through April 2021, the strategy’s institutional shares’ 7.1% annualized return outpaced its foreign large-blend Morningstar Category’s 5.0% and benchmark’s 5.2%. Furthermore, it outperformed without excess volatility, resulting in superior risk-adjusted metrics (such as the Sharpe ratio) over that time frame. The strategy typically wins by shielding capital in sell-offs, capturing only 92% of the index’s drawdowns since inception. It performed well in 2018, a challenging year for international equities, and during the 2007-09 global financial crisis, though as noted it failed to provide a meaningful cushion in early 2020. While it can outperform in bull markets, such as that of 2012-13, its performance in rallies tends to be middling.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Technology Stocks

Change Healthcare Inc

UnitedHealth still plans to purchase Change for $25.75 per share, which is our fair value estimate. However, in March, U.S. antitrust regulators announced an extension of that merger’s review period, and if the deal doesn’t close because of regulatory concerns, we would reduce the value of Change to our stand-alone fair value estimate of $16.50.

In the quarter, Change beat consensus on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue grew 1% to $855 million, above FactSet consensus of $846 million. With cost controls likely due to rightsizing before the pending acquisition, Change turned that slight revenue beat into a bigger profit beat. The company turned in adjusted EBITDA of $272 million (above consensus of $254 million) and adjusted EPS of $0.42 (above consensus of $0.36).

On the pending merger with UnitedHealth, both the acquirer and the target look committed to the deal, but regulators have thrown a wrench into the process. Based on recent commentary from UnitedHealth, there appears to be no major financing concerns or red flags from the perspective of the potential acquirer, and Change shareholders voted to approve the merger in April, as well. However, the Department of Justice announced an extended antitrust review on the combination in March after receiving a letter from the American Hospital Association about the combination, citing concerns about sensitive healthcare data shifting hands from Change (a neutral third party) to UnitedHealth’s Optum segment (a subsidiary of the largest U.S. health insurer and a large caregiver, too). The AHA suggested that the shift could give UnitedHealth an unfair advantage in its legacy businesses by seeing competitive claims processed in Change’s clearinghouse business. Concerns like that add uncertainty about whether the deal will close.

Profile

Change Healthcare is a spin-off of various healthcare processing and consulting services acquired by McKesson over numerous years. Recently, these processing assets were contributed to a joint venture and in June 2019 public shares were issued with McKesson retaining the majority interest. As of the end of the March 2020 quarter, McKesson distributed all its interest in the public processor. Core services consist of insurance (healthcare) claim clearinghouse for healthcare payers in addition to administrative and consulting services to assist healthcare providers improve reimbursement coding, billing, and collections.

Source:Morningstar

Disclaimer

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Dividend Stocks

No-Moat ALS’ Coronavirus-Resistant Fiscal 2021 Earnings as Expected; No Change to AUD 5.50 FVE

We expect consolidation to further strengthen this position, leveraging brand and knowledge across various testing and inspection markets. However capital outlays in establishing a global network of operations and laboratories during the resources boom mean ALS is barely earning its cost of capital on an adjusted basis, and if goodwill is included, returns do not currently meet the cost of capital. This precludes the company from having a moat. Historically, about 60% of earnings were tied to volatile commodity markets, but the end of the resources booms and expansion into segments including environmental, pharmaceutical and food testing reduces this to less than 50%.

Key Investment Factors

Investors should be aware of the inherent volatility around commodity-tied earnings. The mining and energy downturn has demonstrated the vulnerability of businesses tied to resource activity. Although ALS previously benefited from exposure to a robust mining sector, management has astutely grown other parts of the business that are less cyclical. Environmental, pharmaceutical, and asset-care services should remain relatively more resilient. A growing global network reduces region reliance and gives ALS the capability to leverage experience across borders and serve an international client base.

No-Moat ALS’ Coronavirus-Resistant Fiscal 2021 Earnings as Expected; No Change to AUD 5.50 FVE

Our AUD 5.50 fair value estimate for no-moat ALS Limited is unchanged. The materials testing specialist reported a 1.5% decline in underlying fiscal 2021 net profit after tax to AUD 186 million, marginally ahead of our AUD 178 million expectations. We make no material changes to our outlook, including for a 12% increase in underlying fiscal 2022 NPAT to AUD 209 million. ALS paid a higher-than-anticipated fiscal second-half dividend of AUD 14.6 cents against our AUD 12.5 cents target. It brings the full fiscal year to AUD 23.1 cents for a modest 1.9% yield at the current AUD 12.30 share price, franked to 81%. Our fiscal 2022 DPS forecast is little changed at AUD 26 cents, a prospective partially franked yield of 2.1%, again modest.

 That said, ALS remains a prospective growth story, not a yield one. Although in this light we remain perplexed by the level of market excitement, the shares are trading at more than double our assessed fair value, at a fiscal 2021 P/E of 32. We determine the current share price implies a whopping five-year EBITDA CAGR of 16.5% to AUD 817 million by fiscal 2026. Underlying fiscal 2021 EBITDA actually fell 1.6% to AUD 373 million. This wasn’t a bad result in lieu of the coronavirus pandemic, but ALS’ business model was always expected to be resilient given its essential service status.

We think we’re being generous enough forecasting five-year EBITDA CAGR of 5.0% to AUD 487 million by fiscal 2026, including a midcycle EBITDA margin of 21.3%, in line with fiscal 2021’s 21.2% actual. This includes strong 8% growth for life sciences, but essentially flat earnings for commodities and industrial including tribology. Our fair value equates to a fiscal 2026 EV/EBITDA of 8.1, P/E of 14.3 and dividend yield of 4.2%, assuming a 60% payout ratio. Life sciences generated just under half of fiscal 2021 EBITDA and comprises approximately 55% of our fair value estimate, followed by minerals at 40%. Industrial comprises the modest 5% balance of fair value.

With respect to fiscal 2021, life sciences and industrial EBITDAs somewhat undershot our forecast, the former steady at AUD 222 million and the latter falling 13% to AUD 33 million. However, the minerals segment shone, EBITDA up 4.5% to AUD 210 million, considerably ahead of our expectations. This speaks to the quality of fiscal 2021 earnings outperformance given innate volatility in minerals’ earnings in contrast to the comparative stability from life sciences. Fiscal 2021 net operating cash flow increased 4% to AUD 270 million as expected. Free cash flow grew 57% but to a lower-than-expected AUD 145 million, due to higher-than anticipated capital expenditure. This leaves net debt at AUD 614 million, higher than expected but creditably down on the previous corresponding period’s AUD 803 million and September 2020’s AUD 675 million print.

ALS Ltd Company Profile

Founded in the 1880s and listing on the ASX in 1952, ALS operates three divisions: commodities, life sciences, and industrial. ALS commodities traditionally generated the majority of underlying earnings, providing geochemistry, metallurgy, inspection and mine site services for the global mining industry. Expansion into environmental, pharmaceutical and food testing areas and commodity price weakness have lessened earnings exposure to commodities.

Source: Morningstar

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.