The world large-stock Morningstar Category split into three new groups based on investment style. This offering lands in the world large growth category. That’s appropriate, as it follows a growth-oriented strategy and its primary self-chosen benchmark is the MSCI All Country World Index Growth rather than the core MSCI ACWI, which it considers secondary. That said, the fund’s approach to growth investing is more restrained than those of many other funds in the new category. The managers belong to an Invesco international team that follows a doctrine they call EQV, with valuation being the “V,” and they take that aspect seriously. The fund’s most recent portfolio statistics put it nearly on the border with the blend portion of the Morningstar Style Box, while the average for the world large-growth average is much further into the growth area. Recently, that difference has benefited the fund’s relative ranking in the new category, as value and core have outperformed growth, but longer-term, the opposite is true.
This strategy has been proved on other offerings from the same team that focus exclusively on non-U.S. markets. This one hasn’t had the same level of success, partly owing to that once-deep U.S. underweighting, but also stock selection in that important market was subpar. Selection has improved recently, but the portion of that team focused on the big U.S. market remains just Amerman and two analysts.
The Fund’s Approach
The fund uses the same process that has provided solid long-term returns for a variety of Invesco international funds. It receives an Above Average Process rating. The managers look for sustainable earnings growth available at reasonable valuations and try to avoid companies with high debt levels. They put importance on the “quality” of earnings, looking for recurring revenue streams, strong cash flows, and solid operating margins. At one time, the managers of the fund’s U.S. portion used a different approach, but in mid-2013 the U.S. manager was incorporated into what had been the international team (which Invesco calls EQV, for earnings, quality, and valuation), so now the entire fund uses the EQV strategy. The valuation portion plays a significant role, leading this portfolio to be more moderate on the growth spectrum than most rivals in the new world large-growth category.
Before the U.S.-focused manager joined the EQV team, the fund heavily underweighted the U.S. side of the portfolio. That portion gradually increased; by March 31, 2021, it stood at 56%, close to the level of the MSCI ACWI Growth. The managers say they probably won’t allow such a large gap to recur, so that stock choices drive performance. Meanwhile, the fund’s small-cap weight rose after it absorbed a small-mid sibling in 2020. It now has a market cap around one third that of the index.
The Fund’s Portfolio
Matt Dennis and his comanagers took advantage of the early-2020 bear market to make many changes. Dennis and Ryan Amerman, who focuses on the U.S. side of this offering, say they added 19 new stocks to the portfolio in 2020’s first quarter, while selling 11. That’s a much higher level of activity than usual for this fund, as the managers prefer to hold on to stocks for longer periods of time, and since then activity has slowed down. Compared with its MSCI ACWI Growth benchmark, the fund has some noteworthy distinctions. Not surprisingly, given this fund’s moderate take on growth and attention to valuations, the tech-sector stake of 21% is about 10 percentage points lower than the indexes. But the managers do like a number of tech names, such as JD.com, which they say has become preferable to Alibaba BABA (though they still own the latter) because they see a greater potential for margin expansion, and Dropbox DBX, which they also added last year. Conversely, the fund’s stake in financial services is twice the index’s level, even though they are wary of big U.S. and European banks. Rather, they own investment-focused stocks such as LPL Financial LPLA in the U.S. and Fineco in Italy, along with payment-focused firms such as Visa V and PayPal PYPL. The managers say the portfolio’s substantial U.K. overweighting owes not to macro factors but to the appeal of a number of specific stocks.
The Fund’s Performance
This fund now lands in the new world large growth category. Because growth has outperformed value and core over most of the 10 years since Matt Dennis was named sole lead manager (until the past six months saw a reversal of that trend), and this fund is more moderate than most of its new peers, it has been at a disadvantage. Over the trailing 10-year period ended April 30, 2021, the 9.1% annualized return of its A shares lagged the world-large-growth category average by 2 percentage points and the MSCI ACWI Growth by 2.8 percentage points. It’s worth noting, however, that it essentially matched the return of the core MSCI ACWI over that time period, and beat the average of the new world-large-blend category by 0.8 points. (The fund’s portfolio currently lands barely on the growth side of the growth/blend border of the style box.) One hindrance has been the fund’s so-so performance in major downturns. It didn’t stand out in 2015’s third quarter, and its 13.5% loss in 2018 was more than 5 percentage points worse than the growth index and new growth category, From Jan. 21 through March 23, 2020 (the peak and trough of foreign indexes in that bear market), its return was again similar to the MSCI ACWI and the category norm.
Source: Morningstar
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