Tag: Top Stocks

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Fixed Income Fixed Income

Suncorp’s stock is in the spotlight following the announcement of a $350 million capital round.

final margin set at 2.90%. The margin is also in line with the recent issuances from Westpac Capital Notes 8 (WBCPK) and Macquarie Capital Notes 3 (MBLPD) (MBPLD are trading largely in line with par value since listing). We note this is a new issuance and therefore has no rollover or reinvestment plan attached to it. The underlying issuer, Suncorp Group, is a strong business and a regular issuer of debt in the market. We would have liked to have seen the final margin at the upper end of the indicative range (3.1% above BBSW). However, the demand for this relatively small issuance ($375m market cap) is also likely to be high given the issuer is someone other than the big 4 banks (although the sector exposure is the same, therefore we are not fully convinced of the diversification benefits here). Our positive view on these is a relative call.

Security Description: 

SUNPI securities are fully paid, subordinated, perpetual, redeemable, convertible, unsecured, non-cumulative, subject to a capital trigger event and non-viability trigger event, listed securities. The securities are scheduled to convert into ordinary shares on 17 Dec 2030 (subject to the conversion conditions being satisfied). 

Issuer Description: 

Suncorp is an ASX-listed company and financial services provider in Australia and New Zealand, and the ultimate parent company of the Suncorp Group, with a market capitalisation of approximately $16 billion as at 27 August 2021. The Suncorp Group offers insurance and banking products and services in Australia and New Zealand. 

KEY RISKS

  • The market price of SUNPI may fluctuate due to various factors that affect financial market conditions. It is possible that SUNPI may trade at a market price below their Issue Price of $100. Interest Rate will fluctuate with changes in the market rate.
  • Significant economic shock to the Australian economy, including a severe and prolonged downturn in the Australian economy. These capital notes are not deposit liabilities or protected accounts.
  • There is a risk that Distributions will not be paid given they are discretionary.
  • Unless exchanged on or before that date, SUNPI are expected to Convert into Ordinary Shares on the Mandatory Conversion Date. However, there is a risk that Conversion will not occur on the Mandatory Conversion Date because the Scheduled Conversion Conditions are not satisfied due to a large fall in the Ordinary Share price relative to the Issue Date VWAP, or if Ordinary Shares cease to be quoted on ASX or have been suspended from trading for a certain period. Mandatory Conversion may therefore not occur when scheduled or at all. The Ordinary Share Price may be affected by transactions affecting the share capital of Suncorp Group, such as rights issues.
  • The market price of SUNPI (and the Ordinary Shares into which they are expected to Convert) may be affected by Suncorp Group’s financial performance and position.

Interest Rate: Margin of 2.9% above the 90day BBSW rate. 

Interest / Distribution Payments: Discretionary, Non-cumulative and subject to following conditions: (1) Distributions will be paid if Suncorp’s capital requirements are sufficient as required by APRA. (2) Distributions will not cause Suncorp to become insolvent. (3) APRA not objecting to distributions being paid. Distributions are expected to be fully franked but not guaranteed.

Mandatory Conversion: On 17 Dec 2030, SUNPI Holders will receive ordinary shares worth $101 per note. Conversion may not occur on 17 Dec June 2030, being the first possible Mandatory Conversion Date, or at all if the Conversion Conditions are not satisfied.  Holders have no right to request that their Notes be Converted, Redeemed or Transferred.  Holders would need to sell their Notes on ASX at the prevailing market price to realise their investment. That price may be less than the Face Value (initially $100 per Note) and there may be no liquid market in the Notes.

Non-Viability Trigger Event:  In case of the event that APRA considers Suncorp non-viable, these notes will be written off (in all or in part) or Converted into Ordinary Shares and Holders will hold Ordinary Shares and rank equally with other holders of Ordinary Shares in a subsequent Winding Up of the Bank. Following a Non-Viability Trigger Event, if Conversion does not occur within five Business Days for any reason, those Capital Notes 4 that are required to be Converted will be Written-Off and Holders will not receive any Ordinary Shares with respect to those Capital Notes 4.

Ranking: In the event of a Winding Up, if the Notes are still on issue and have not been Redeemed or Converted, they will rank ahead of Ordinary Shares, equally among themselves and with all Equal Ranking Capital Securities and behind Senior Creditors (including depositors and holders of Westpac’s senior or less subordinated debt). This means that if there is a shortfall of funds on a Winding Up to pay all amounts ranking senior to, and equally with, the Notes, Holders will lose all or some of their investment.

The above is a brief summary of the terms and risks. Investors should read the PDS for more information.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

InvoCare Headwinds with the Return of Funeral Restrictions Immaterial to FVE

The company boasts well-known, highly respected brands and cost advantages over the long tail of smaller players in the highly fragmented death care industry, underpinning our wide economic moat rating. Death is one of few certainties in life, supporting steady demand for InvoCare’s services. Death rates can fluctuate from year to year. For instance, social distancing and increased hygiene focus in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a virtually non-existent flu season and significantly lower mortality rates in calendar 2020. However, death rates are very consistent over the long run.

While the program created some near-term disruption as venues closed or were otherwise impaired while undergoing refurbishments, InvoCare to capture an increasingly large portion of market share, given its dominant position, brand strength, and refreshed service offering following the venue refurbishments. Customers, typically the family of the deceased, are relatively price-insensitive, given the highly emotional context surrounding death care. 

Financial Strength 

InvoCare’s balance sheet is in a strong position following the AUD 274 million equity raising in calendar 2020. Leverage, measured as net debt/adjusted EBITDA, improved to 1.3 at fiscal year-end 2020, from 2.4 in fiscal 2019, comfortably below covenant levels of around 3.5. As earnings improve, net debt to fall below 1.0 times EBITDA by fiscal 2022. Underlying operating income lifted 46% on the coronavirus-ravaged prior corresponding period, or PCP, to AUD 39 million, still around 10% below the first half of fiscal 2019. Pricing bounced back during the period as restrictions on funeral attendances eased and pricing recovered—a demonstration of the strength of the underlying business.

Australia’s hardline approach to minimising COVID-19 cases with social distancing, lockdowns, and an increased focus on hygiene is leading to the second consecutive year of virtually no flu. InvoCare’s Australian funeral volumes in the first half were flat on the prior corresponding period and down approximately 3% on the prepandemic first half of fiscal 2019. The number of deaths to grow at an average CAGR of around 3% per year for the next decade, accelerating beyond 2030 due to demographics. The last traded price of Invocare Ltd was 12.15 AUD while it’s Fair Value Estimate 15.30 AUD which shows that InvoCare has potential to Grow.

Bulls Say’s

  • InvoCare consistently generates return on invested capital above its weighted average cost of capital, reflective of its pricing power due to its market position, reputation, and strong brand equity.
  • Industry volumes are immune to economic factors and will steadily grow as the population increases.
  • Prepaid funerals effectively lock in future sales and provide InvoCare with a low-cost source of funding.

Company Profile 

InvoCare is the largest funeral, cemetery, and crematorium operator in Australia and New Zealand. We estimate InvoCare enjoys over a third of revenue share in Australia, and around a fifth in New Zealand, and is the number one player in both countries. Australia contributes the vast majority of consolidated earnings. InvoCare owns a portfolio of over 60 brands, including three flagship national Australian brands: White Lady, Simplicity Funerals, and Value Cremations, and owns and operates 290 funeral homes, along with 16 cemeteries and crematoria. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

Westpac Banking Corp to issue Convertible perpetual notes

Investment Thesis:

  • For WBCPK, the final distribution margin has been decided at 2.9%, which is more than BBSW (Bank Bill Swap Rate) in comparison to pre-book build range of 2.9- 3.1%.
  • The WBCPK securities are similar to the value declared by the recently offered MBLPD (Macquarie Bank Ltd.) securities but offer a healthy premium margin to other major banks’ AT1 securities.
  • WBCPK offers a gross running yield of 2.0% and yield-to-first call maturity of 4.1%.
  • Westpac Bank has a powerful business and is a regular issuer of debt- instrument in the market.
  • Westpac is also offering an opportunity to reinvest (“Reinvestment Offer”) into the new WBCPK securities to all current WBCPG (Westpac Capital Notes 4) holders since the first call date (20 Dec-21) of WBCPG is approaching. 
  • WBCPG investors have been given the option of reinvesting some or all of their holdings into WBCPK. If WBCPG investors hold it until 20 Dec-21, Westpac has disclosed that the Company plans to redeem any outstanding notes for face value of $100 per security.

Key Risks:

  • The current market price of WBCPK would be volatile on account of different factors that may impact the financial and economic conditions. Interest Rate is likely to fluctuate along with the change in the market rate.
  • Economic distress to the Australian economy, including an extended declining phase in the Australian economy. 
  • Risk of dividends not being paid, given that they are discretionary.
  • WBCPK are anticipated to be converted into ordinary shares on the Scheduled Conversion Date, unless mentioned otherwise on or before that date. 
  • Risk of non-occurrence of conversion on the scheduled conversion date because of the inability of fulfilment of the scheduled conversion conditions due to a large fall in the Ordinary Share price relative to the Issue Date VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), or if ordinary shares stop from being quoted on ASX or have been limited from trading for a specific period.
  • The price of the Ordinary Shares may be impacted by transactions affecting the Westpac Bank share capital, such as rights issues.
  • Westpac Bank’s financial performance and position may affect the market price of WBCPK (and the ordinary shares into which they are expected to be converted).

Security Description:

WBCPK securities are fully paid, non-cumulative, convertible, redeemable, perpetual, and unsecured, which is subject to a capital trigger event and non-viability trigger event, subordinated, listed securities. Its current price is $100 and the coupon rate that it would be offering would be 2.90%. Its issue date is 15th September, 2021. The securities have been scheduled to be converted into ordinary shares on 21 June 2032 (only on account of conversion conditions being fulfilled). 

Company Profile:

Westpac is one of Australia and New Zealand’s leading financial services provider, operating under multiple brands, with a low presence in Europe, North America and Asia.  As on 31st March 2021, Westpac and its controlled entities had total assets of approximately $889 billion. 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

BETASHARES AUSTRALIAN SUSTAINABILITY LEADERS ETF is true-to-label and cost effective

Investment Objective:
The main goal of Betashares Australian Sustainability Leaders ETF is to track the index (before fees and expenses) that involves Australian companies, which have passed through screens so as to eliminate companies with direct or sufficient exposure to fossil fuels or those that are involved in activities which are supposed to be inconsistent when compared to responsible investment requirement.

Investment Strategy:
This fund offers a chance to investors to align their investments with their ethical standards. FAIR’s investment methodology includes strict screening criteria, which provide investors a true to label ethical investment option. FAIR does not consider investing in any of the big 4 banks or large Australian mining companies.

Portfolio Objective:
Diversified exposure is provided to ethical Australian shares
High preference towards companies that are classified as “Sustainability Leaders”
Ethical investment methodology that are true to label

Positives:
Shares diversification
Australian shares options that are available at low cost
Distributions made semi-annually

Negatives:
Fluctuations in Share market can make the portfolio value go up and down during the holding period.
Concentrated market in relation to others
Exclusion of major market sectors experiencing strong returns
Change in fees and costs of the fund might be possible

Company Profile:
BetaShares is a renowned manager of ETFs and other funds that are traded on the ASX. The inception of the company was in 2009 and it now consists of over 60 products in its portfolio, all of which can be bought and sold on the ASX. The company aims to offer investors simple, liquid, and cost-effective solution to Australian and global shares, cash and fixed income, currencies, commodities, and active and alternative strategies.

ETF Performance:

(%)FundBenchmark
1-month+0.29%+0.34%
3-months+5.53%+5.66%
6-months+11.28%+11.46%
1-year+19.30%+19.76%
5-year (p.a.)–+9.80%
Since Inception (p.a.)+10.54%+11.07%

(Source: BetaShares)

Fig. 1: Fund performance as at 31 July 2021

ETF Positioning:

(Source: BetaShares)

Fig. 2: Top 10 Exposures

(Source: BetaShares)

Fig. 3: Sector Allocation

General Advice Warning
Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Technology Stocks

oOh!Media Ltd a buy given the Company’s leverage to ad spend pick up once restrictions ease.

Investment thesis

  • Strong market share (~47% in Australia / New Zealand) in a growing advertising medium Out Of Home (OOH).
  • The share price trades below our blended valuation (DCF / PE-multiple / EV/EBITDA multiple).
  • Dividend temporarily suspended, with the Board intending to revisit this decision when prevailing market conditions improve and with consent of the Company’s lenders.
  • Management did not provide quantitative FY22 earnings guidance but did provide “revenue for Q3 is currently pacing 38% higher than the corresponding period in 2020 and 74% of Q3 2019”. Further, management noted, “forward visibility remains uncertain given the ongoing effects of Covid-19 lockdowns and associated movement restrictions, however we expect that when the current lockdowns end there will be a strong recovery in audiences and associated revenues as has been the case previously”. 
  • The market that OML competes in is concentrated (majority share with three very well financed competitors), which poses a challenge for international players wanting to come in (need to have a network established to be an out-of-home player). 
  • Unproven CEO Cathy O’Connor became CEO of OML in January 2021, however she brings extensive experience in media and history of running profitable media companies. 
  • OML utilises audience analytics to stay ahead of the curve, with its association with Quantium (Quantium is 50% held by Woolworths and the other 50% is private equity, with its data set currently covering all the Woolworths loyalty data, NAB credit card data, real estate core logic etc to capture more than 75% of Australians spend). OML believes Quantium gives it an edge over its competitors, especially given it has exclusive rights and the contract was only recently renewed.

Key Risks

  • The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:
  • Competitive threats leading to market share loss.
  • Disappointing growth (company and industry specific).
  • Pandemic is prolonged longer than expected.
  • Cyclicality in advertising markets 
  • Disappointing updates on contract renewals.

Highlights of key FY21 results

Relative to the pcp: (1) Revenue of $251.6m was up +23% driven by revenue recovery across key formats in Australia (Road, Retail and Street Furniture) and NZ. OML maintained the number one market position in both the Australian and New Zealand markets. (2) Gross margin of 42.5% was up 8.8 points reflecting recovery towards pre-Covid levels. (3) Underlying EBITDA of $33.3m was up +209% driven by margin expansion leveraging revenue uplift. (4) OML was able to negotiate with property partners for net rent abatements of $19m. (5) Underlying NPATA was $2.4m versus a loss of $16.9m in 1H20. Reported Net Loss after tax of $9.3m (post AASB16) was an improvement from a -$28.0m loss in 1H20. (6) OML’s balance sheet strengthened with gearing ratio (Net Debt / Underlying EBITDA) down to 1.1x (from 1.8x) and net debt declined to $94m, down -16% relative to the pcp. (7) The Board has temporarily suspended dividends (as per OML’s announcement during its March 2020 equity raising) with the Board intending to revisit this decision when prevailing market conditions improve and with consent of the Company’s lenders.

Company Description 

oOh!media Ltd (OML) is one of Australia’s largest operators of out of home advertising products (largest scale with footprint in all major regions in Australia & New Zealand) covering all the major advertising formats including – billboards, retail, street furniture, airports and office towers (~95% market share in office tower marketing). The Company has a workforce of 800 people, with ~150 people sales facing, ~250 people on operations (cleaning maintaining street furniture etc) and rest in shared services, technology, etc.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Dell Reports Q2 Results, but faces Supply Chain Challenges

Dell Technologies is a pre-eminent vendor of IT infrastructure products and services. Although Dell Technologies has substantial exposure to commoditized markets and carries considerable financial leverage, it expects a hybrid cloud IT to offer a growth opportunity amid Dell trimming its debt load via cash injections coming from divestitures and spinning off VMware. 

Dell Technologies’ business centers on PCs and peripherals, servers, storage, networking equipment, as well as software, services, and financial services. Its brands include Dell, Dell EMC, VMware, Secure works, and Virtustream. The company returned to the public market in late 2018 through a reverse merger of the VMware tracking stock, DVMT. The company’s largest revenue streams of commercial PCs and servers are in tough pricing environments that can rely on services and support to generate profit.

While Dell is a benefactor of heightened demand for computers and peripherals due to the pandemic, it remains hesitant about the long-term growth and competitive pricing environment of the computing market. On the other side of the business, it is expected that Dell’s hybrid-cloud portfolio can ramp up business as organizations update their infrastructure to modern solutions.

Financial Strengths

Dell is maintaining $80 fair value estimate after its second-quarter results surpassed the expectations for year-over-year revenue growth and earnings. Dell’s last traded price was 101.55 USD, whereas its fair value estimate is 80 USD, which makes it an overvalued stock. As with peers in the computer market, Dell’s rampant growth is being restrained by supply chain challenges that are expected to persist in the near term. Shares slightly dropped after Dell reported results Since returning to the public markets, the company has placed a priority on paying down its debt balance with the goal to become investment-grade. As of the end of fiscal 2021, Dell Technologies had about $48.5 billion in total debt. The Dell sale of Boomi will bring in another $4 billion, and it is expected Dell to use both transactions to pay down debt.

Bulls Say

  • As a supplier with an end-to-end IT infrastructure portfolio, Dell Technologies has significant up selling and cross-selling opportunities.
  • Through its cloud-based products, higher-margin nascent technologies, traditional hardware prowess, and VMware, the company is well-positioned to be a leader in hybrid cloud environments.
  • Dell Technologies’ healthy cash flow is focused on paying down debt and creating a more balanced long-term capital structure that can support future investments.

Company Profile

Dell Technologies, born from Dell’s 2016 acquisition of EMC, is a leading provider of servers and storage products through its ISG segment; PCs, monitors, and peripherals via its CSG division; and virtualization software through VMware. Its brands include Dell, Dell EMC, VMware (expected to be spun off toward the end of 2021), Boomi (expected to be sold by the end of 2021), Secure works, and Virtustream. The company focuses on supplementing its traditional mainstream servers and PCs with hardware and software products for hybrid-cloud environments. The Texas-based company employs around 158,000 people and sells globally.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Philosophy Technical Picks Technology Stocks

Super Retail’s strong balance sheet with plenty of room to invest

Investment Thesis

  • Trading at a discount to our valuation, with attractive trading multiples and dividend yield.
  • SUL’s four core segments have strong tailwinds/fundamentals. For example, vehicle aftermarket sales continue to be strong (with an increase in secondhand vehicles sold (Supercheap); travellers seeking social distancing and thus moving away from public transportation (Supercheap); with Covid lockdown measures in force, more people would spend their holidays domestically (BCF; macpac), utilising their vehicles (Supercheap); increasing awareness of fit and healthy living (Supercheap); (rebel).
  • A strong capital position.
  • Strong brands in BCF, Macppac, Rebel, and Supercheap, as well as solid industry positions in oligopolies and a solid store network.
  • With over 8 million members, this is an appealing loyalty programme.
  • Making the switch to an omni-channel business. Previously, the business was modelled on like-to-like store numbers; however, management now thinks of business metrics in terms of club members and has been capable of growing active club membership much faster than store numbers (store numbers in the last 5 years have grown +2 percent CAGR vs active club members at +10 percent CAGR), supplying an opportunity to expand customer base and thus (most of the customers are omni channel). Management continues to push for increased online sales (Covid-19 added to this tailwind), with online sales currently accounting for 13-15 percent of total sales and expected to rise to 20-25 percent over the next five years.

Key Risk

  • Increasing competitive pressures.
  • Any supply chain issues, particularly as a result of the impact of Covid-19 on logistics, that have an impact on earnings.
  • Increasing cost pressures are eroding margins (e.g. more brand or marketing investment required due to competitive pressures).
  • A disappointing income update or failure to achieve the market’s expected growth rates could cause the stock price to re-rate significantly lower.

SUL’s Strong Balance Sheet

  • Net cash position of $242.3 million, resulting from a July 2020 equity raise and strong trading throughout the period.
  • Fixed charge cover is 3.1x (based on commonplace EBITDAL) and is anticipated to stabilise in the low to mid 2x range.
  • SUL has $600 million in undrawn committed debt facilities.
  • “While Covid-19-related trading restrictions and lockdowns continue, the Group intends to preserve a very commercially produced position,” said management. 
  • Once trading conditions have normalised, the Group intends to aim for a long-term net debt/EBITDA position (pre AASB 16) of 0 to 0.5x.”

Company Profile 

Super Retail Group (SUL) is one of Australasia’s Top 10 retailers. SUL comprises four core segments. BCF: Australia’s largest outdoor retailer focused on selling Boating, Camping and Fishing products. Macpac: retailer of apparel and equipment with their own designs focused on outdoor adventurers.  Rebel: Retailer of branded sporting and leisure goods and equipment for casual and serious fitness enthusiast. Supercheap Auto: specialty retail business which specialises in automotive parts and accessories.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

AMN Healthcare Fair Value Estimate to be raised to $71

investment stockbroker risk analysis using multiple devices. Financial analysis using phone app and laptop. Market trading profit.

though recent performance represents a new normal. The company’s fair value estimate has been raised on narrow-moat AMN to $71 per share, up from $55 previously. Labor shortages and resumed healthcare utilization kept revenue up this quarter. Management’s third-quarter guidance provides some clarity for 2021 results, suggesting a sharper decline in the third quarter, which will stabilize in the fourth quarter.

Nursing and Allied revenue fell only 5% sequentially this quarter due to lower nursing volume and bill rates, offset by higher allied revenue. This decline was less than anticipated due not only to lingering COVID-19-related activity but also a thin labor market. A resurgence in patient volume combined with nurse burnout and resignations may limit further declines after third quarter, too. 

Physician and leadership solutions was down 1% sequentially, as COVID-19-related demand mostly ceased in the first quarter, while demand for physician and leadership search remains strong due to vacancies. Technology and workforce solutions grew by 6% sequentially, and the SaaS business should continue its rapid growth, though at a reduced pace as the firm exhausts its lower-hanging partnership opportunities. Gross and operating margin percentages remained stable from the first quarter. 

Company’s Future Outlook

It is expected margins to steadily improve over the next few years, as the technology and workforce solutions segment will be a major driver of margin improvement, eventually overtaking physician and leadership solutions as the second-largest segment. AMN’s recent surge is consistent with the cyclical nature of this business, and is not believed this year represents a suitable point from which to anchor forecasts. Prior history shows that the firm does extraordinarily well during years of growth when need is high but it quickly reverts to baseline industry growth in the years thereafter.

Company Profile

AMN Healthcare Services Inc (NYSE: AMN) is the largest healthcare staffing company in the United States. In 2019, it placed almost 10,000 nurses and allied healthcare full-time workers with provider clients nationwide. About two thirds of its business is generated from its temporary nursing division; the other third is generated from its physician placement and technology-backed workplace solutions divisions.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Philosophy Shares Small Cap Technical Picks

Pact Group’s stock price has risen as a result of a 100% dividend increase.

Investment thesis

  • Strong market share in Australia, with a strong influence in Asia. As a result, it offers appealing exposure to the growth of both developed and emerging markets.
  • The corporation’s newly appointed CEO brings a fresh perspective on company strategy, which can restructure the company for strong volume growth.
  • Based on our projections, the valuation is reasonable.
  • Going forwards, management appears to be less centred on acquired growth, implying that the Company is less likely to make a value-destroying acquisition.
  • The reintroduction of the dividend is a positive sign that management is optimistic about future earnings growth.
  • In an environmentally friendly market, focusing on sustainable packaging.

Key Risks

The following are the key challenges to the investment thesis:

  • Increased competitive pressures, resulting in further margin erosion.
  • Cost pressures on inputs that the corporation would be unable to pass on to users.
  • A worsening in Australia’s and Asia’s economic conditions.
  • The risk of emerging markets.
  • Poor acquisitions or failure to meet synergy targets as PGH shifts away from packaging for food, dairy, and beverage clients and towards more high-growth sectors such as healthcare.
  • Negative currency movements (purchased raw materials in U.S. dollars)

Highlights of key FY21 results

  • Revenue fell -3 percent to $1,762 million, while underlying EBITDA increased by 4% to $315 million, underlying EBIT increased by 10% to $183 million (EBIT margin increased by 120 basis points to 10.4 percent), and underlying NPAT increased by 28% to $94 million. The positive motivational drivers of group EBIT growth over the year were: margin improvement (+$10m) as a result of disciplined raw material input cost management; volume growth in Packaging & Sustainability (+$9m); and volume increase in Materials Handling & Pooling (+$15m).
  • As a result of strong operating performance and working capital management, cash flow performance improved, with free cashflow increasing by +44 percent to $104 million. 
  • Balance sheet gearing decreased slightly year on year, working to improve to 2.4x (within the targeted range of 3.0x) from 2.6x. The company has $317 million in liquid assets (undrawn debt capacity). 
  • Strong capital returns, with a +120bps increase in ROIC to 11.8 percent. The Board declared a final dividend of 6cps (65 percent franked), helping to bring the year’s total dividends to 11cps (vs 3cps in the pcp).

Company Description  

Pact Group Holdings Ltd (PGH) was established by Raphael Geminder in 2002 (Mr. Geminder remains a major shareholder with ~44% and is the brother in law of Anthony Pratt, Chairman of competitor Visy). Pact has operations throughout Australia, New Zealand and Asia and conceives, designs and manufactures packaging (plastic resin and steel) for many productsin the food (especially dairy and beverage), chemical, agricultural, industrial and other sectors. 

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Sabre Files for Potential Equity Offerings; Shares Cheap

20025825 - closeup image of businessman drawing 3d graphics

sending shares down 8%. In our view, Sabre has enough liquidity in a zero-demand environment for around a year, and probably at least two years at second-quarter 2021 demand levels. This stance is buoyed by Sabre last communicating a monthly cash burn figure of $80 million in a zero-demand environment during its earnings call on 6th Nov 2020. Since then, management said on its Feb. 16, 2021, earnings call that it expected cash burn to improve throughout 2021. On the Aug. 3, 2021, call management said cash burn improved sequentially and that Sabre had $1.1 billion in cash on the balance sheet, with no debt maturing until 2024 and no significant uses for cash in the near term. 

Sabre expects to reach free cash flow break-even levels when its air volumes reach 56%-67% of 2019 levels. Sabre’s total air bookings recovered to 51% of 2019 levels in June, up from 38% in May and 24% in its first quarter. U.S. hotel industry revenue per available room has not weakened through mid-August, and even during 2020 case surges U.S. travel demand only paused for a few weeks before continuing an improving trend, illuminating the desire to travel. Still, after holding at around 80% of 2019 levels through mid-August, U.S. air volumes have averaged around 74% for days 16-19 of the month.

And importantly for Sabre, it is a later cycle recovery play tied to corporate travel improving, which is being delayed by pushouts of return to office. We are monitoring any potential impact to demand from the delta variant of the coronavirus. We currently estimate that Sabre’s second-half 2021 air bookings will reach 54% of 2019 levels, a small improvement from June levels. While share price action may remain volatile, we still see investors greatly discounting Sabre’s narrow moat, with shares trading well below our $16.20 fair value estimate.

Company Profile 

Sabre holds the number-two share of global distribution system air bookings (40.9% as of the end of 2020 versus 38.8% in 2019). The travel solutions segment represented 88% of total 2020 revenue, which was split evenly between distribution and airline IT solutions revenue. The company also has a growing hotel IT solutions division (12% of revenue). Transaction fees, which are tied to volume and not price, account for the bulk of revenue and profits.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.