Tag: Top Stocks

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Funds Funds

Pfizer strong pipeline development increasingly sets ups near term growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Pfizer’s size establishes one of the largest economies of scale in the pharmaceutical industry. In a business where drug development needs a lot of shots on goal to be successful, Pfizer has the financial resources and the established research power to support the development of more new drugs. Also, after many years of struggling to bring out important new drugs, Pfizer is now launching several potential blockbusters in cancer, heart disease, and immunology. Pfizer’s vast financial resources support a leading salesforce. 

Pfizer’s commitment to postapproval studies provides its salespeople with an armamentarium of data for their marketing campaigns. Further, Pfizer’s leading salesforces in emerging countries position the company to benefit from the dramatically increasing wealth in nations such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Turkey. Pfizer’s recent decision to divest its off-patent division Upjohn to create a new company (Viatris) in combination with Mylan should drive accelerating growth at the remaining innovative business at Pfizer. With limited patent losses and fewer older drugs, Pfizer is poised for steady growth.

Financial Strength

Pfizer holds a very strong financial position with a large degree of flexibility. As of the end of 2020, debt/capital stood at 39% and debt/EBITDA was 2.9, which suggests that Pfizer remains on solid financial footing. With the majority of its cash flow derived from a diverse portfolio of products, it’s not expects a high degree of volatility with future earnings. After a deep dive on several of Pfizer’s pipeline drugs combined with continued strong data for COVID-19 treatment Paxlovid, it has increased our projections for several key drugs leading to a fair value estimate increase to $48 from $45.50. The strong pipeline increasingly supports our wide moat rating for the firm. For the core business of Pfizer, it is expected to close to 6% annual sales growth between 2020 and 2025 as new drugs offset generic competition. 

Bulls Say’s 

  • Bega is shifting investment to the spreads and grocery business, which we view as less commoditised and higher margin than dairy, with strong niche positions in Vegemite and peanut butter 
  • External factors outside of Bega’s control, such as the weather, can adversely impact supply and demand dynamics. This can impact commodity prices, inputs costs and the firm’s supply chain and lead to volatile earnings 
  • Changing consumer trends toward dairy-free and vegan diets could lead to declines in per-capita dairy and cheese consumption, weighing on the majority of Bega’s earnings

Company Profile 

Pfizer is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical firms, with annual sales close to $50 billion (excluding COVID-19 vaccine sales). While it historically sold many types of healthcare products and chemicals, now, prescription drugs and vaccines account for the majority of sales. Top sellers include pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, cancer drug Ibrance, cardiovascular treatment Eliquis, and immunology drug Xeljanz. Pfizer sells these products globally, with international sales representing close to 50% of its total sales. Within international sales, emerging markets are a major contributor.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Funds Funds

Kotak Bond Direct Growth: Stable team supports the process and has the potential to outperform in the long term with its active duration positioning

Kotak Bond is actively managed and run by an experienced team with a robust investment strategy. The fund has delivered consistent returns, and we believe it is a strong choice for investors who seek a quality portfolio and are willing to occasionally take a higher investment risk for higher returns.

Approach 

The strategy is run using a team-based approach and has a strong fundamental process in place. The fund is more focused towards taking active duration bets and invests primarily in high-quality credits. Credit analysis is divided into banking, nonbanking financial companies, and manufacturing debt, further demarcated into three buckets based on the strength of the business, management, and corporate governance standards. The qualitative assessment is then followed by rigourous quantitative analysis wherein financial ratios such as leverage, coverage, and solvency ratios are considered.

Portfolio

In 2021, the manager maintained a high allocation to government securities mainly towards the medium and long end because of attractive yields. He is overweight at the medium end because he believes that, regardless of whether the yield went up or down, the middle of the segment would provide a good level of carry and roll-down advantage. At the same time, the steepness of the curve made the longer end of the curve look appealing. However, because of the uncertainty surrounding the rate hike, he kept a limited the fund avoids investing in anything below AAA segment and intermittently holds higher cash/money market instruments to take opportunistic trading calls when markets are bumpy.

People

Abhishek Bisen is an experienced manager who has been with the fund house since October 2006. He took over this fund in April 2008 along with Deepak Agrawal. From July 2015, Bisen has been sole manager after Agrawal moved out to manage credit and shorter-maturity funds. Bisen is well-engrained in Kotak’s philosophy, and his skills complement the investment process. The fixed-income strategies are run using a team-based approach that follows an inclusive culture. It fosters the collective input of the investment specialists closest to the source of investment information.

Performance

Abhishek Bisen has delivered robust returns during his tenure from April 2008 to November 2021. It ranked in the first quartile by outperforming 82% of its peers, delivering returns of 8.19% versus the category average of 7.39%. In 2021, he maintained a higher exposure to medium-duration bonds and government securities. This resulted in superior risk-adjusted returns for the fund. We believe the fund has the potential to outperform with its active investment strategy across interest-rate cycle. 

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

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Shares Small Cap

Bega Cheese economic moat required to sustainably generate economic profits

Business Strategy and Outlook

Bega has transformed from a dairy processor with a focus on business to business operations to a branded consumer food company with a more diversified earnings base and less exposure to volatile milk prices. While dairy will remain a key category for Bega Cheese, the focus will be on high value products such as cream cheese and infant formula. In January 2021, Bega finalised the acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks from Kirin Group for AUD 534 million. As part of the acquisition, Bega acquired leading brands in milk-based beverages and yoghurt, white milk, and plant-based beverages, in addition to 13 manufacturing sites and Australia’s largest national cold chain distribution network. 

Revenue from the branded segment, which includes spreads, grocery products and Lion’s Dairy and Drinks portfolio, to expand at a CAGR of 18% to fiscal 2026, underpinned by new product innovation and bolt-on acquisitions. Bega Cheese has made limited investment in its brands, particularly in Australia where Fonterra is the licensee of the Bega brand, however since acquiring the spreads and grocery business in 2018, marketing spend as proportion of revenue has increased to 3% from 1% and it is anticipated to remain the higher level.

Financial Strength

Our fair value estimate is AUD 5.20 per share. Bega’s balance sheet is sound. Leverage, measured as net debt/EBITDA improved to 2.3 at June 30, 2021, from 2.4 at the prior period and comfortably below covenants. This is a pleasing position post the major acquisition of Lion Dairy and Drinks in fiscal 2021 which was funded through AUD 267 million of new and extended debt facilities and a AUD 401 million equity raising. It is expected that further deleveraging in coming years as acquisition synergies are achieved, earnings improve and noncore assets are divested, with net debt/EBITDA falling below 2.0 by 2023. Bega has the capacity to pursue smaller acquisitions while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 50% normalised EPS. The group’s fiscal 2022 EBITDA guidance of AUD 195 million to AUD 215 million has necessitated an 11% downgrade to our fiscal 2022 EBITDA forecast to AUD 215 million.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Bega is shifting investment to the spreads and grocery business, which we view as less commoditised and higher margin than dairy, with strong niche positions in Vegemite and peanut butter 
  • External factors outside of Bega’s control, such as the weather, can adversely impact supply and demand dynamics. This can impact commodity prices, inputs costs and the firm’s supply chain and lead to volatile earnings 
  • Changing consumer trends toward dairy-free and vegan diets could lead to declines in per-capita dairy and cheese consumption, weighing on the majority of Bega’s earnings

Company Profile 

Bega Cheese is an Australian based dairy processor and food manufacturer of well-known brands including Bega Cheese and Vegemite. Bega Cheese operates two segments: the branded segment which produces consumer packaged goods primarily sold through the supermarket and foodservice channels and the bulk segment which produces commodity dairy ingredients primarily sold through the business-to-business channel.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds

Pendal Horizon Fund: An actively managed portfolio of Australian shares

 The Fund is led by Crispin Murray, who has over 27 years’ industry experience and is currently the Head of Equity Strategies at Pendal. Mr. Murray is supported by a research team of nineteen, including Mr. Rajinder Singh who has over 17 years’ experience in Australian equities and manages a range of sustainability and ethical funds for Pendal.

The benchmark index is S&P/ ASX300 Accumulation Index.

Downside Risks: 

  • Market & security specific risk including Australian economic conditions deteriorate. 
  • The Portfolio Manager/analysts miss-calculate their bottom-up valuation. 
  • Stock selection fails to yield alpha against the benchmark – Companies which are screened out, such as in materials, energy, gambling, outperform. 
  • Key man risks with Crispin Murray, Andrew Waddington and Jim Taylor.

Investment Team:

Pendal’s nineteen-member Equity team is one of the largest in the industry. The Fund is managed by Crispin Murray, who is also the Head of Equity and is assisted by Rajinder Singh, who has a combined 44 year’s industry experience.

Fund Performance:

Fund Positioning:

Sector Allocation:

Investment Philosophy & Process:

Investment Philosophy: The Fund’s investment philosophy is based on the belief that good corporate governance and sustainability is a central factor to a company’s longterm success. 

Investment Process: The investment process is driven by bottom-up, fundamental research of stocks listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (both large and small cap). The key features of the process are best described in the diagram below. The Manager also utilises a proprietary system as part of its investment process, which includes Analyst Analyser which is a database that captures analyst financial models, valuations and recommendations

About the Fund:

The Pendal Ethical Share Fund is an actively managed portfolio of Australian shares which seeks to ensure that funds are invested in an ethical and socially responsible manner. The Fund invests in companies whose practices and impacts are aligned with an investor’s own social, environmental and ethical preferences and aims to provide a return (before fees, costs and taxes) that exceeds the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index over a 5-year period.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Omicron Buoys Sonic Healthcare Coronavirus Testing but Our Long-Term View Stands

Business Strategy and Outlook

Sonic’s “medical leadership” model recognises the importance of the referring doctor as the company seeks to differentiate itself on service levels. Success in the model is evidenced by organic growth consistently tracking ahead of the market, suggesting market share gains. Sonic’s organic volume growth in its core laboratories segment has typically ranged between 3% and 4% and we forecast a similar rate over our 10-year forecast period. The volume growth is underpinned by population growth, aging demographics in developed markets, higher incidence of diseases and wider adoption of preventative diagnostics to manage healthcare costs.

Laboratory medicine, or pathology, has a high fixed cost of operation and thus benefits from volume growth to drive lower cost per test outcomes. Sonic benefits from cost efficiencies by maximising throughput through its network of labs and collection centres. Higher testing volumes result in a lower cost per test as labour, equipment, leases, transportation and overhead costs are all leveraged.

Financial Strength

Sonic is in a strong financial position. Free cash flow conversion of earnings prior to acquisition spend has averaged 98% over the last 10 years and has allowed Sonic to quickly repay the debt funding its acquisitions. At the end of fiscal 2021, Sonic reported AUD 921 million in net debt representing net debt/EBITDA of only 0.4 times, below the 2.0 to 2.7 times range targeted by management, and well below the 3.5 times covenant. Sonic also has a progressive dividend policy which is communicated as a minimum of an equal dividend per share to the prior year.

Our AUD 33 fair value estimate factors in 4% group revenue growth in a typical year and a midcycle operating margin of 14%. It is estimated that the deliver EPS growth of roughly 5% in a typical year. Partly offsetting this was the Australian government cutting the reimbursement rate for private providers to AUD 72.25 per test from AUD 85 prior, which is in place until June 30, 2022. The deal broadens Sonic’s existing U.S. footprint by instantly adding annualised revenue of roughly USD 110 million, or 7% of Sonic’s fiscal 2021 U.S. laboratory revenue.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Sonic boasts leading market positions in most of its geographies and benefits from cost advantage derived from scale. 
  • Pathology and diagnostic imaging are highly defensive industries that influence the majority of treatment decisions. 
  • Free cash flow conversion prior to acquisition spend has averaged 98% of earnings over the preceding 10 years and forecast to remain high, allowing Sonic ample flexibility to reinvest in the business.

Company Profile 

Sonic Healthcare is a global pathology provider. It is the largest private operator in Australia, Germany, Switzerland and the U.K., the second largest in Belgium and New Zealand and the third largest in the U.S. In addition to pathology, which contributes roughly 85% of group revenue, Sonic is the second largest player in diagnostic imaging in Australia and the largest operator of medical centres in Australia. The company typically earns about 40% of group revenue in Australia and New Zealand, 25% in the U.S. and 35% in Europe

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

CSL Ltd. : Pioneering in Global Biotechnology

Business Strategy and Outlook

CSL is one of three tier one plasma therapy companies who benefit from an oligopoly in a highly consolidated market. All the players are vertically integrated as plasma sourcing is a key constraint in production. The plasma sourcing market is currently in short supply, however, CSL is well-positioned having invested significantly in plasma collection centres, owning roughly 30% of collection centres globally. 

One major threat to plasma products is recombinant products. Recombinants are quickly replacing plasma products in haemophilia treatment despite being more expensive. CSL has an excellent R&D track record and has developed recombinant products for haemophilia. However, we expect revenue growth to slow in the haemophilia segment based on competitor Roche’s successful launch of recombinant Hemlibra. Immunoglobulin product sales are key to CSL.

This market is not yet impacted by recombinants although both CSL and competitors are pursuing R&D in Fc receptor-targeting therapy to treat autoimmune diseases. 

However, gene therapy represents the biggest risk to the plasma industry as it aims to cure rather than treat diseases. While the potentially prohibitive cost may result in slow adoption, CSL has strategically expanded its scope via the acquisition of Calimmune in fiscal 2018 and licensing a late-stage Haemophilia B gene therapy, EtranaDez, from UniQure in fiscal 2020. 

CSL is the second largest influenza vaccine manufacturer, behind Sanofi, and is on the forefront of changes in influenza vaccines where manufacturing is shifting from egg-based to cell-based culturing. It’s also conducting preclinical testing of mRNA influenza vaccines. 

The company has demonstrated good sense for R&D and evaluates spend based on the commercial outlook. The strategy for CSL Behring has been to target rare diseases, a typically low volume and high price and margin business. There is little reimbursement risk in this area or in the vaccine business, Seqirus.

Financial Strength

CSL is in good financial health and can fund all its capital and R&D spending, currently a combined 26% of revenue, as well as maintain a dividend payout ratio of 44% without requiring additional debt. Following the acquisition of Vifor Pharma, financial leverage is expected to increase to 2.3 in fiscal 2023. However, it is forecasted that the net debt/EBITDA may fall within CSL’s target range of 1.0-1.5 by fiscal 2026. This leaves CSL flexible to pursue organic or acquisitive growth opportunities as they present in the evolving biotech industry.

Free cash flow conversion has remained depressed over the last five years as working capital investment and capital spending to add manufacturing capacity was elevated above long-term levels, combined with higher R&D spending. We forecast free cash conversion to improve but still average 52% over the next five years as we anticipate CSL to prefer growing organically rather than acquisitively.

Bulls Say’s

  • CSL is investing in both physical capacity and R&D, leaving it well-positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities in the key immunoglobulins market. 
  • The acquisition of Calimmune’s gene therapy platform in fiscal 2018 and UniQure’s late-stage haemophilia B gene therapy candidate in fiscal 2020 will help defend against emerging competition. 
  • CSL has a strong R&D track record, and the ongoing rate of investment is ahead of major competitors.

Company Profile 

CSL is one of the largest global biotech companies and has two main segments. CSL Behring either uses plasma-derived proteins or recombinants to treat conditions including immunodeficiencies, bleeding disorders and neurological indications. Seqirus is now the world’s second largest influenza vaccination business and was acquired in fiscal 2015. CSL has a strong R&D track record, and the product portfolio and pipeline include non-plasma products as the firm continues to broaden its scope. Originally formed in Australia as a government-owned entity, CSL now earns roughly half its revenue in North America and a quarter in Europe

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

REA Group reports strong FY21 earnings driven by growth in Australia segment

Investment Thesis:

  • Clear #1 market position in online property classifieds, with consumers spending over more time on realestate.com.au app than the number two website. 
  • Growth opportunities via expansion into Asia and North America. 
  • Recent strategic partnerships with National Australia Bank (property finance) could potentially be positive in the long term. 
  • Upside in key markets – particular in areas where REA is under-penetrated and could potentially win market share from competitors. 
  • New product developments to increase customer experience. 
  • Regular price increases help offset listing pressure.

Key Risks:

  • Competitive pressures lead to a further de-rating of the PE-multiple. 
  • Volume (listings) outlook remains subdued in the near term. 
  • Execution risk with Asia/North America strategy. 
  • Failing to get an adequate return on the recent acquisition of iProperty. 
  • Value/EPS destructive acquisitions. 
  • Decline in Australian property market. 
  • Given REA trades on a very high PE-multiple, underperforming to market estimates can exacerbate a share price de-rating. 
  • Recent tightening of lending practices by banks would affect Financial services business.

Key highlights:

  • REA reported strong FY21 results, with core operations revenue of $928m, up +13%, or excluding acquisitions, up +11%, on strong performance in its Australia segment.
  • EBITDA (incl. associates) was up +19% to $565m, on strong cost management with core operating cost growth (excluding acquisitions) contained to 3% over the pcp.
  • Margin of 60% was flat relative to the pcp. Net profit of $318m was up +18% equating to EPS of 247 cents, up +21%.
  • The Board declared a final dividend of 72cps fully franked which brings the full year dividend to 131cps, up +19%. 
  • Following several acquisitions, REA retained a strong balance sheet, with debt of $414m and a cash balance of $169m at year end.
  • REA refinanced syndicated debt facilities and funded the Mortgage Choice acquisition via a bridge facility with NAB for $520m. The bridge facility matures in July 2022, with management stating they expect to replace this with a new syndicated facility in 1Q22
  • Australia segment highlights:
    • Residential: revenue increased by +18%, on higher national listings (up +15% over the pcp, with Melbourne, up +11% and Sydney, up +25%), improved depth and Premiere penetration, increased subscription revenues and continued growth in add-on products.
    • Commercial and Developer: revenue was up +5% with Developer benefiting from a +17% increase in new project commencements, driven in part by Government stimulus, an increase in project profile duration and higher subscriptions, partially offset by lower Commercial revenues as the impact of Covid dampened listing volumes.
    • Media, Data & Other: revenues were broadly flat over the pcp, as growth in Data and Media revenues were offset by lower revenues in Other.
    • Financial Services: revenue was up +9% driven by higher settlements, increased broker recruitment and improved productivity, which was offset by lower partnership revenue as the current NAB agreement performance payments reached maturity in September 2020.

Company Description: 

REA Group (REA) provides online property listings, web management, financial services and data analytics to the real estate industry via advertising services. For consumers, REA offers the largest online real estate search engine in Australia. The Company also has operations and growing presence in Asia and other parts of the world.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds Research Sectors

WCM Focused International Growth Fund Institutional Class: A promising option

Approach

The managers first generate ideas through a quality-growth screen, which includes companies with market caps of at least $3.5 billion, a good liquidity profile, and other metrics such as strong and improving margins. The team excludes non-growth industries such as utilities and looks for companies with solid returns on invested capital. Factors such as economies of scale, intellectual property, and legal or regulatory advantages are key. The team also places a heavy emphasis on culture, believing that culture drives certain companies forward and helps maintain their competitive edge. The team takes its best ideas and builds a relatively concentrated portfolio of roughly 30 to 40 international stocks. Because of their benchmark-agnostic approach, the portfolio may have extreme over- and underweighting to various sectors.

Portfolio

The managers use their best ideas to build a concentrated portfolio. . Coming out of the 2007-09 global financial crisis, the managers felt like their portfolio was too concentrated at about 20 holdings. They’ve gradually increased that count, and in July 2021 had 35 holdings. While still relatively concentrated (the typical foreign large-growth peer held 83 stocks in July), the expansion helps reduce individual stock risk. The managers take other prudent steps to minimize risk and remain relatively diverse. They avoid sectors that they believe offer little growth potential and as of July 2021, the fund had no exposure to energy, real estate, or utilities.

Portfolio Holdings .png

People

Co-CEO and manager Kurt Winrich’s upcoming retirement has been long in the works and the team will still have four capable managers to pick up the slack. Mike Trigg, who has been on the strategy since the fund’s 2011 inception, is the final decision-maker here. . Peter Hunkel, who has also managed since the fund’s inception, is responsible for portfolio construction. The team promoted Sanjay Ayer, also a former Morningstar equity analyst, to the management ranks in June 2019. Ayer joined WCM in 2007 and manages the WCM Global Growth Fund WCMGX and the WCM Emerging Markets Fund WCMEX, which have had success under him. Paul Black, co-CEO of WCM, is a named manager here but serves mainly as an advisor to the team. 

Performance 

Strong stock selection has fueled the fund’s outperformance. Picks in technology and industrials, in particular, have been among the biggest contributors to its performance. That helped the strategy weather 2020’s first-quarter coronavirus-driven slide. The fund held up slightly better than the index losing 29.4% from Jan. 18 to March 23, 2020, compared with the index’s 30.3% loss. The managers then opportunistically added MercadoLibre MELI and Ferrari RACE, which benefitted the strategy coming out of the bear market. In 2021, the fund has returned to its winning ways. Its 12.7% return handily beat the index’s 4.6% and the Morningstar Category’s 4.5%. That was good for the top decile in the category. Holdings such as ASML Holdings NV ADR ASML and Shopify SHOP were among the leading contributors in that period.

Performance .png

About the Fund

WCM Focused International Growth Fund seeks long term capital appreciation by investing in equity securities of non-U.S. domiciled companies or depository receipts of non-U.S. domiciled companies.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Financial Markets Sectors Technology Technology Stocks

Apple Inc is focused on sustaining growth and margins

fintech icon on abstract financial technology background represent Blockchain and Fintech Investment Financial Internet Technology Concept.

Investment Thesis 

  • High barriers to entry.Strong strategic position in the rapidly growing global smartphone market especially with high end consumers. Loyal consumer base resulting in lower competitive pressure, and higher pricing power. 
  • Large cash balance and strong free cash flow supporting share buyback and dividend payout.
  •  Leading positions in iPhone; iPads; and Macs. 
  •  Services segment remains on track to double FY16 revenue by FY20. 
  • In terms of Other products (such as wearables and home products), AAPL seized the leading position off the back of a surge in smartwatch sales in a market expected to grow single digit till 2022 and double digit thereafter. 
  • Strong senior executive team reducing (not totally eliminating) key man risk.

Key Risks

  • Geo-political tensions. The current trade war between the US and China pose a threat to the company’s future profits. AAPL currently obtains components from single or limited sources (mostly China), the Company is subject to significant supply and pricing risks. Also, Greater China is a major market contributing to approximately 21% (Q218) of total revenue and any retaliatory efforts from Beijing could impact those sales. 
  • Whilst there are only a handful of competitors, the competition is Intense from Android manufacturers. The most notable competitors in the smartphone market (which contributes 62% of Apple’s revenues) are the Korean giant Samsung and two rapidly growing Chinese smartphone players in Huawei and Xiaomi. On raw performance specs (i.e., camera, maps, screen size, charge time, etc.), one may assert that AAPL devices are technically inferior to a handful of Android devices. 
  • Movements in U.S. dollar (USD). The greenback’s strong gain recently (due to rise in U.S. interest rates and moderating growth in other parts of the globe) has seen it rise to the highest level in nearly seven months, meaning foreign currency earnings of AAPL can be worth less when translated back to USD. The weakness in foreign currencies relative to USD will have an adverse impact on net sales during 2018.

Key highlights to 4Q18 results

  • 4Q18 revenue of $62.9bn, up +20% from the year-ago quarter, and quarterly diluted EPS of $2.91, up +41%, driven by record sales and strong momentum for iPhone, Wearables and Services. On the conference call, management highlighted “[revenue] was ahead of our expectations. That’s an increase of 20% over last year and our highest growth rate in three years”. 
  •  Gross margin was 38.3%, flat sequentially, in line with management’s expectations, as leverage from higher revenue offset seasonal transition costs. 
  •  International sales (61% of the quarter’s revenue) was strong, especially in Japan, up +34%, Rest of Asia Pacific, up +22%. The Americas (44% of revenue) saw revenue of $27.5bn, up +19%, whilst Europe at $15.4bn, was up +18% and China was up +16% at $11.4bn. 
  • Services revenue reached an all-time high of $10.0bn. Excluding a one-time favorable adjustment of $640m (in 4Q17), Services revenue grew from $7.9bn to $10bn, up +27% over the pcp. 
  • By product, iPhone, Services and Other products saw 29%, 17% and 31% sales growth, respectively, whilst disappointingly, iPad and Mac saw -15% and 3% sales growth respectively. 
  • iPhone ASP was $793 compared to $618 a year ago, driven by strong performance of iPhone X, 8 and 8 Plus, as well as the successful launch of iPhone XS and XS Max in the September quarter this year, while we launched iPhone X in the December quarter last year.

Company Profile

Apple Inc. (AAPL) designs and manufactures media devices and personal computers (Macs), and sells a variety of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions and third party digital content and applications. The company leads the world in innovation with iPhone, iPad, Mac, apple watch and Apple tv.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Funds Funds Research Sectors

Altius Sustainable Bond Fund- A fund that aims to provide a total return approach

The Altius Sustainable Bond Fund offers investors fixed interest investments, which are managed with the consideration of environment, social and corporate governance (ESG) principles. The Manager recently expanded its exclusion of companies engaged in thermal coal to all fossil fuels (or at least have revenue no greater than 10% sourced from these activities). The Fund is a credible offering. It is run by an investment team with strong credentials and lengthy investment experience in managed assets in the investment class (the team of six comprises three PMs all with at least 25 years’ experience and the remaining team members all with over 10 years’ experience).

Downside Risk: 

  • Interest rate risk (however the Fund’s total return focus should limit this). 
  • The Manager gets the thematic and top-down view wrong. 
  • Key man risk – Bill Bovingdon, Chris Dickman and Gavin Goodhand.

Investment Team:

The fund is managed by Australian Unity’s Cash and Fixed Interest team (Altius) consisting of experienced fixed interest investment professionals. The investment team is supported by a very experienced Investment Advisory Committee, which meet every quarter (formally). Below are the 

  • Bill Bovingdon – Executive Director, Chief Investment Officer 
  • Chris Dickman – Executive Director, Senior Portfolio Manager
  • Gavin Goodhand – Senior Portfolio Manager
  • Yen Wong – Head of Credit Research
  • Kirsten Lee – Credit Analyst.
  • Vincent Tang – Senior Portfolio Analyst

Performance:

(%)Fund  Benchmark**Out-performance
1-month-0.110.35-0.46
3-months0.390.77-0.38
1-year (p.a.)-0.550.32-0.23
3-years (p.a.1.422.49-1.07
5-year (p.a.)1.532.13-0.6
Since inception (p.a.)*2.262.65-0.39

Fees Structure:

The Fund has lowered its management fees 0.56% p.a. to 0.37%p.a. The Fund charges no performance fee.

Fund Positioning:

Sector Allocation:

Top 10 Holdings:

About the fund:

The Altius Sustainable Bond Fund is an Australian fixed interest fund that invests in companies which conduct their business and apply capital responsibly, considering a range of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues. The Fund aims to provide a total return approach, offering duration exposure at appropriate points in the cycle, as well as positioning the portfolio defensively in a rising rate environment and invests only in domestic assets, thus avoiding importation of global risks (e.g. currency) and offering a different risk profile.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.