Tag: Top Stocks

Categories
Technology Stocks

The Market For Uber Remains Fragmented, And Uber Competing Many Local Ride-Sharing Platforms And Taxis

Stock exchange market concept, stock broker looking at graph working and analyzing with display screen, pointing on the data presented and deal on a exchange, Businessman trading stocks online.

Business Strategy and Outlook

Founded in 2009 and headquartered in San Francisco, Uber Technologies has become the largest on-demand ride-sharing provider in the world (outside of China). It has matched riders with drivers completing trips over billions of miles and, at the end of 2020, Uber had 93 million users who used the firm’s ride-sharing or food delivery services at least once a month. In light of Uber’s network effect between riders and drivers, as well as its accumulation of valuable user data, it is alleged the firm warrants a narrow moat rating. 

Uber helps people get from point A to point B by taking ride requests and matching them with drivers available in the area. Uber generates gross booking revenue from this service (the firm’s mobility segment), which is equivalent to the total amount that riders pay. From that, Uber takes the remaining after the driver takes his or her share. Mobility gross booking declined 46% in 2020 due to the pandemic, while net revenue declined 43% with a slightly higher average take rate, although it is anticipated the take rate will decline in the long-run. The pandemic spurred 109% growth in delivery gross bookings and 182% increase in net revenue. 

It is likely, Uber has 30% global market share and will be the leader in Analysts’ estimated $452 billion total addressable ride-sharing market (excluding China) by 2024. The firm faces stiff competition from players such as Lyft (mainly in the U.S.) and Didi, a business in which Uber has an 11% holding after the sale of its operations in China to Didi in 2016. While Uber no longer operates in China, it does compete with Didi in other regions around the world. Globally, the market remains fragmented, and Uber competes with many local ride-sharing platforms and taxis. Delivery, the firm’s food delivery service, will continue to be one of the main revenue growth drivers. Both the mobility and delivery segments will benefit from cross-selling opportunities on the demand and supply sides of the platforms. Further utilization of Uber’s overall on-demand platform for delivery services in other verticals can also help the firm progress toward profitability, in Analysts’ view.

Financial Strength

At the end of 2021, Uber had $4.9 billion of cash and $9.3 billion of debt on its balance sheet. Uber burned $4.3 billion, $2.7 billion, and $445 million in cash from operations in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively, while capital expenditures averaged a bit less than $500 million during this period. It is likely, the firm to generate positive cash from operations beginning in 2022. By 2031, it is anticipated Uber’s cash from operations could exceed $23 billion, outpacing top-line growth due to operating leverage. It is projected Uber to become free cash flow positive in 2022, after which Analysts’ model it will average free cash flow to equity/revenue (FCFE/Sales) of over 10% through 2031. While it is held, Uber FCFE/Sales to reach 19% by 2031, it isn’t foreseen the firm issuing dividends. Uber will likely use any excess cash for further acquisitions.

Bulls Say’s

  • Uber’s position in the autonomous vehicle race could equalize gross and net revenue, after no longer needing to pay drivers. 
  • Pressure to pay a minimum amount per trip to its contracted drivers could create a barrier to entry for smaller players, helping Uber in the long-run. 
  • Uber’s aggregation of multimodal offerings will drive in-app stickiness, making Uber a one-stop shop for all transport needs.

Company Profile 

Uber Technologies is a technology provider that matches riders with drivers, hungry people with restaurants and food delivery service providers, and shippers with carriers. The firm’s on-demand technology platform could eventually be used for additional products and services, such as autonomous vehicles, delivery via drones, and Uber Elevate, which, as the firm refers to it, provides “aerial ride-sharing.” Uber Technologies is headquartered in San Francisco and operates in over 63 countries with over 110 million users that order rides or foods at least once a month. Approximately 76% of its gross revenue comes from ride-sharing and 22% from food delivery. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

TransDigm’s Commercial Aerospace Business Seen Performing Well During First Quarter

Business Strategy and Outlook

TransDigm Group operates as a holding company with a clear, consistent strategy: acquire businesses with proprietary aircraft components, primarily sole-source products, with high aftermarket content. TransDigm’s businesses manufacture and sell replacement parts for ignition systems, pumps, actuators, and flight controls, among other things. Since aircraft must be fully maintained to be operational and TransDigm is the only provider of many of their products, the company has significant pricing power. The firm operates with a high degree of financial leverage to amplify operating results. 

This strategy works because potential competing spare parts must be licensed by the Federal Aviation Administration to be identical to the original product. Since TransDigm’s designs are proprietary, it is challenging for would-be competitors to prove that their design is identical. This barrier to entry allows TransDigm to extract value from regulator-required maintenance and enables the firm to aggressively price spare parts. TransDigm had its IPO in 2006, after 13 years of private ownership, and it still uses private equity strategies of creating value. The firm aims to improve the operations of its target companies by increasing prices, productivity, and encourage employees to generate new business. TransDigm is highly decentralized and has numerous business units. It encourages business unit leaders to think like owners by setting aggressive targets for managers and allowing them to achieve these goals however they choose to. 

The coronavirus pandemic has substantially reduced travel and consequently grounded a large chunk of the global passenger fleet, though domestic air travel is rebounding. The progression of the global fleet age remains an open question with large ramifications for TransDigm. If airlines use the current fleet to bring back capacity during a potential commercial aviation recovery, TransDigm would benefit from the continued maintenance of these aircraft. If airlines take delivery of new aircraft and use newer, under-warranty aircraft to bring back capacity, it is likely to reduce TransDigm’s addressable market for several years.

Financial Strength

TransDigm considers itself a private-equity-like public company, so its capital allocation is meaningfully different than most aerospace and defense companies that are covered. TransDigm continuously utilizes financial leverage–gross debt is usually 7-8 times unadjusted EBITDA. While Analysts’ are normally concerned about such high leverage, it is alleged TransDigm’s private equity roots make it quite capable of handling debt. Management has been in place and using the same leveraged strategy since the founding of the firm in 1993. It is not anticipated that the company will reduce leverage meaningfully. The company has been diligent at keeping debt maturities several years away. The company does not have a material debt maturity coming due until 2024, which is seen, gives the company ample time to recover from the COVID-19 challenges to aviation. TransDigm was able to raise debt during April 2020, when airlines were struggling the most. It is alleged that TransDigm would be able to raise additional debt from capital markets if necessary because of the highly visible pricing power and intellectual property backing the firm.

Bulls Say’s

  • Roughly three quarters of TransDigm’s sales are solesource, which gives it immense pricing power. 
  • About 90% of TransDigm’s products are proprietary, which protects its sole-source incumbency. 
  • TransDigm has historically been able to acquire companies at reasonable prices and meaningfully improve operations

Company Profile 

TransDigm manufactures and services a diverse set of components for commercial and military aircraft. The firm organizes itself in three segments: a power and control segment, an airframe segment, and a small nonaviation segment. It operates as an acquisitive holding company that targets firms with proprietary, sole-source products with substantial aftermarket content. TransDigm regularly employs financial leverage to amplify operating results. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Aecom Poised To Benefit From Favourable Long-Term Tailwinds In Infrastructure and Sustainability Solutions

Business Strategy and Outlook

In recent years, Aecom has transformed its portfolio and focused on growing its professional services business. The firm is in the process of exiting several business lines including fixed-price combined cycle gas power plant construction, at-risk oil and gas construction, and international at-risk construction projects. Furthermore, in January 2020, Aecom completed the sale of its management services business. It is seen Aecom’s transformation favourably and believe that the strategic shift will result in a less volatile and more profitable portfolio.

Furthermore, Aecom has improved its profitability thanks to several recent initiatives, including a $225 million general and administrative cost reduction plan completed in fiscal 2019, real estate consolidation, and a plan to exit over 30 countries to focus on the most profitable markets. It is encouraging that Aecom’s margin expansion thus far and see room for further upside, especially in the international business. It can be noted that there is a significant difference in profitability between the Americas and international segments: the adjusted operating margins on a net service revenue basis are in the mid-teens in the former but only mid-single digits in the latter. Considering an over 1,000-basis-point differential, it is viewed as room for further margin expansion in the international segment, and it is alleged the firm will continue to work to narrow the gap by further simplifying the business and completing its planned 30 country exits to focus on higher-margin markets. 

Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Aecom as it is alleged that it’s poised to benefit from favourable long-term tailwinds in infrastructure and sustainability solutions. The company has a strong competitive position in the transportation, water, and environment end markets. As such, it is likely, Aecom is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities created by a growing focus on ESG concerns, including areas such as electrification of transit, clean water, and PFAS.

Financial Strength

At Dec. 31, 2021, the company owed roughly $2.2 billion in long-term debt while holding approximately $1.1 billion in cash and equivalents. Debt maturities are reasonably well laddered over the next few years. Additionally, Aecom can tap into its $1.15 billion revolving credit facility. It is projected that Aecom will generate average annual operating cash flow of approximately $700 million over the next five years. Considering that an investment-grade credit rating can have strategic importance for E&C firms and boost competitiveness in winning new awards, it is likely, Aecom to prioritize paying down its debt balance. In the long-run, it is anticipated the firm to maintain its leverage ratio within management’s target range of 2.0 times to 2.5 times. Additionally, it is alleged that management will continue to allocate excess capital to opportunistic stock repurchases.

Bulls Say’s

  • Thanks to its diversified portfolio, it is anticipated Aecom to take advantage of growth opportunities in sectors with favourable long-term prospects, including transportation and water. 
  • Through its Aecom Capital segment, the firm should be able to capitalize on growth in public-private partnerships (P3), which I said to have some economic moat potential due to customer switching costs. 
  • Following the 2015 acquisition of Hunt Construction, Aecom became the leading nationwide builder of iconic sports arenas, such as the Los Angeles Rams NFL stadium.

Company Profile 

Aecom is one of the largest global providers of design, engineering, construction, and management services. The firm serves a broad spectrum of end markets including infrastructure, water, transportation, and energy. Based in Los Angeles, Aecom has a presence in over 150 countries and employs 51,000. The company generated $13.3 billion in sales and $701 million in adjusted operating income in fiscal 2021

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Stevanto’s Near Term Outlook Foresight Uncertain

Business Strategy and Outlook

Stevanato is the market leader in pen cartridges and presterilized vials and holds the number position in prefillable syringes (behind Becton Dickinson). The company is a key supplier in the drug delivery supply chain, and provides drug containment and primary packaging solutions to 41 of the top 50 global pharma companies. Primary packaging is the material that first envelops a drug product, and safe production of drug-delivery packaging is critical for the successful delivery of pharmaceutical products. 

Stevanato aims to increase the percentage of product sales from high value solutions, which refers to products with proprietary intellectual property and greater complexity, such as presterilized drug containment and integrated self-injector pen and wearable devices. The company is prioritizing investment in research and development and broadening its offering through M&A. Capacity expansion is also a key component of Stevanato’s long-term strategic plan, and capital expenditures are likely to remain elevated over the next year or two. Competition for skilled employees is extreme, and future growth will depend on effectively hiring and retaining talent. 

Both the biopharmaceutical and diagnostic segments are expected to benefit from an increased contribution in high value solutions over time, which has been growing 20% year over year and now represents about 23% of consolidated revenue. It is anticipated the ongoing shift to high-value will provide a material tailwind for margin over the next five to 10 years, and also contribute to robust top line growth. It is seen an uncertain near-term outlook for the business, with both positives and negatives related to the ongoing pandemic. Some drug trials have postponed or delayed, leading to lower sales growth for some customers’ drug portfolios. However, this has been mitigated by the pressing need for vaccines and treatments, which has allowed Stevanato to enjoy compound annual top line growth near 25% over the last two years. The company supplies vials and syringes to about 90% of currently approved vaccines.

Financial Strength

Stevanato has a sound financial position.As of September 2021, total cash position in excess of long-term debt on the balance sheet was EUR 154 million. This was mainly related to the firm’s IPO from July 2021, which raised EUR 154 million. In analysts’ view, Stevanato has more than sufficient capital to fund increasing capacity investment, and it can also be seen the potential for tuck-in acquisitions to broaden the firm’s value proposition in the drug delivery supply chain.In the near term, however, Stevanato’s expansion plan is likely to be the focus of capital deployment. Because of a higher level of capital investment, the company reported free cash flow of negative EUR 9.9 million for the third quarter of 2021. It is anticipated significant earnings and cash flow growth over the next few years, and while free cash flow is likely to be close to flat in 2022, it is anticipated free cash flow above EUR 20 million in 2023. It is believed that it’s possible that some additional debt might be needed to cover cash flow needs, but, considering Stevanato’s current low degree of financial leverage, it is not to be concerned with an increase in debt at or below EUR 500 million.

Bulls Say’s

  • Stevanato has room to bring customers up the value chain to higher-value products and services, giving it a lengthy tailwind for earnings growth and margin expansion. 
  • In contrast to peers, Stevanato can use in-house produced glass vials and syringes for integrated selfinjector systems, reducing the number of vendors for customers and providing Stevanato with a possible cost advantage. 
  • As large economies such as India and China implement more stringent pharmaceutical standards, Stevanato stands to become a key cog in the supply chain in those countries.

Company Profile 

Italy-based Stevanato Group is a provider of drug containment, drug delivery and diagnostic solutions to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and life sciences industries. It delivers an integrated, end-to-end portfolio of products, processes, and services that address customer needs across the entire drug life cycle including development, clinical, and commercial stages. Stevanato’s revenue is geographically diversified, with 60% of sales from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), 27% in North America, 10% in Asia-Pacific (APAC), and 3% in South America. 

(Source: MorningStar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Resale looks like a bargain as Poshmark has $26 fair value estimate

Business Strategy and Outlook:

Poshmark is among the largest apparel resale platforms on the market, boasting an interactive marketplace that benefits from a triumvirate of secular tailwinds: social commerce, an ongoing mix-shift toward online retail sales, and the stratospheric growth of the apparel resale market. The firm’s strategy coalesces around four key priorities: product innovation, category expansion, international growth, and buyer acquisition. We take a neutral view of management’s roadmap, with our research leaving us unconvinced that Poshmark’s international thrusts are poised to generate excess returns for investors, and surmise that purportedly adjacent categories like consumer electronics, art, or pets may not be concordant with the firm’s apparel core competency.

As a slew of firms have entered the resale space, competition has arisen around exclusive access to customers, inventory assortment, and distribution channels, with long-term equilibrium remaining uncertain. Consolidation looks inevitable, particularly as the scope of those companies’ offerings see increasing overlap, commensurate with category, price point, and geographic expansion. Poshmark’s right to win hinges on its ability to convincingly answer the “why Poshmark?” query, attracting platform participants with some combination of competitive seller services, frictionless listing, quick inventory turnover, attractive fees, broad assortment, and authentication services.

Financial Strength:

Poshmark’s financial strength is viewed as sound. The firm carries no long-term debt, has $236 million in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of the third quarter of 2021, and figures to be free cash flow positive over two of the next three years. The management has adequate wiggle room to pursue moat-bolstering investments, while narrowing operating losses should provide a route to enduring profitability by our midcycle (2025) forecasts. Following its IPO, the firm’s capital structure has simplified meaningfully, retiring $50 million in convertible notes issued during the third quarter of 2020 that carried a panoply of derivative clauses. Shareholder dilution hereafter should be limited to those shares issued in the normal course of business, with approximately 8.6 million options and RSUs outstanding (just north of 11% of free float) as of the third quarter balance sheet date. Poshmark’s waterfall of investment priorities is viewed as consistent with other high growth firms: pursuing internal investments and strategic mergers and acquisitions.

Bulls Say:

  • Five straight quarters of operating profitability (ending in the third quarter of 2021) suggest a strong underlying business model once acquisition costs normalize. 
  • Early traction in Australia and Canada could augur well for long-term success in those markets. 
  • Adding APIs and analytics tools for wholesalers and liquidators could add another platform use case, while generating higher units per transaction, average order values, and fulfillment cost leverage.

Company Profile:

Poshmark is one of the largest players in a quickly growing e-commerce resale space, connecting more than 30 million users on a platform that sells men’s and women’s apparel, accessories, shoes, and more recently consumer electronics and pet products. The marketplace operates in four countries–the U.S., Canada, Australia, and India–with a capital-light, peer-to-peer model that dovetails nicely with prevailing trends toward social commerce, apparel resale, and an ongoing pivot toward the e-commerce channel. With $1.4 billion in 2020 gross merchandise volume, or GMV, we estimate that the firm captured just shy of 10% of the global resale market, as rolling lockdowns and tangled supply chains provided a meaningful impetus for channel trial during 2020 and 2021.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Philosophy Technical Picks

La Nina and Investment Markets Wipe Out Profits, but Suncorp Inches Closer to Management Targets

Business Strategy and Outlook

Suncorp is a well-capitalised financial services business with a dominant market position in the Australian and New Zealand general insurance industry and a regional banking franchise headquartered in Queensland. In addition to offering insurance under the parent name, key brands in Australia include AAMI, GIO, bingle, Apia, Shannons and Terri Scheer. In New Zealand key brands include Vero, AA Insurance and Asteron Life. Some brands are specific to certain states, but at a group level, the insurer carries concentrated weather and earthquake risk in Australia and New Zealand, and in particular Queensland which makes up around 25% of gross written premiums in Australia. 

The group’s exposure to the Queensland market, where large natural peril events have tended to be larger and more frequent, heightens the risks. Reinsurance protection mitigates risks to some extent, but can be expensive, particularly following large events. Suncorp’s regional banking franchise is more concentrated than the major banks, with home loans making up around 80% of the loan book and Queensland accounting for more than half of total lending. Suncorp Bank’s smaller operating presence, higher funding and operational costs, and relatively limited product offerings have all led to lower margins relative to the majors.

Financial Strength 

Suncorp Group is in good financial health. As at Dec. 31, 2021, Suncorp Insurance had a prescribed capital amount, or PCA, multiple of 1.71 times the regulatory minimum. Following the payment of the final dividend, a special dividend, and AUD 250 million buyback, at a group level that leaves Suncorp with AUD 492 million of capital in excess of its common equity Tier 1 target. This excess capital provides a buffer for unforeseen insurance and bad debt events. The common equity Tier 1 ratio for the insurance business was 1.28 times post the final dividend payment, within the target range of 1.08-1.28 times the PCA, and well above the regulatory minimum of 0.6 times. The bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio as at Dec. 31, 2021 was 9.9%, above Suncorp’s 9% to 9.5% target range. Suncorp targets a dividend payout of 60-80% cash earnings (excluding special dividends).

Bulls Say’s

  • Suncorp owns a portfolio of well-known insurance brands and a regional bank that lacks switching or cost advantages. A focus on processes and systems, largely digitising customer interactions, should support underlying earnings growth. 
  • General insurance is inherently risky, with factors such as weather, natural disasters, and investment markets affecting earnings and capital adequacy. 
  • Brand recognition and confidence claims will be paid are helpful in acquiring and retaining customers, but customers are price sensitive.

Company Profile 

Suncorp is a Queensland-based financial services conglomerate offering retail and business banking, general insurance, superannuation, and investment products in Australia and New Zealand. It also operates a life insurance business in New Zealand. The core businesses include personal insurance, commercial insurance, Vero New Zealand, and Suncorp Bank. Suncorp and competitors IAG Insurance and QBE Insurance dominate the Australian and New Zealand insurance markets.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks Shares

Capable Hands Remain at the Helm of Magellan; Valuation Upside High as Shares Lose Steam

Business Strategy and Outlook

Magellan is an active manager of listed equities and infrastructure. The firm has a fundamental, high-conviction investment approach. Its flagship Global strategy has historically tilted toward IT, e-commerce platforms, and consumer franchises; preferring large, developed market multinationals. FUM have been attracted by consistently achieving excess returns with lower volatility and drawdowns relative to peers.

Magellan’s products are well-distributed. Its funds are featured across platforms.There is a focus on targeting retail investors, with product expansion an increasingly common driver of growth. After pioneering the first active ETF in Australia in 2015, Magellan has worked on attracting new FUM via its partnership initiatives, launching its own low-cost active ETFs, and introducing a new equity fund that caters to retirees seeking predictable income.

Morningstar analysts think Magellan has built the foundations for ongoing earnings growth, supported by its economic moat, product variety, and historically strong track record. Regardless, the potential earnings upside from these positive traits will take time to manifest. In light of Magellan’s recent underperformance, Mornigstars analysts believe a sustained improved track record will be the precursor to stronger fund inflows.

Morningstar analysts anticipate fee margin compression from investors trading down from Magellan’s core funds in preference for its low-cost ETFs, mix shift to other asset classes, and industry wide fee pressure. Continued strong performance is key to sustaining margins, as future FUM growth is likely to hinge more on market movements rather than net inflows given Magellan’s maturity and scale.

Capable Hands Remain at the Helm of Magellan; Valuation Upside High as Shares Lose Steam

Magellan has historically delivered above market returns with relatively low drawdowns. This has allowed it to rapidly scale in FUM to over AUD 93 billion and provides the foundation for continued earnings growth. While Morningstar analysts don’t believe it will be immune from the structural trend of investors moving to passive investments, ongoing competition among fund managers and major institutions in-housing their asset management, and is better placed than most active managers to address these headwinds. Magellan is moving beyond just managing money, to implementing new initiatives such as product expansion to attract new money. Morningstar analysts  believe shares are undervalued, but concur there are limited near-term earnings and share price catalysts due to recent underperformance. 

Chairman and CIO Hamish Douglass’ indefinite leave from Magellan . But morningstar analysts  don’t believe this is overly value-destructive for shareholders. In the interim, Chris Mackay and Nikki Thomas will work with Magellan’s investment team to manage its flagship Global Equity strategies. The strategies are in good hands. Mackay is Magellan’s co-founder, and was its chairman and CIO until 2012. Despite analysts’ conviction in Magellan, Morningstar’s analyst concern is not all investors may be willing to ride out this storm. Thus Morningstar analysts have lowered its fair value estimate to AUD 34.50 per share from AUD 38, after factoring in 3% more net outflows than before and further trimming our retail fee forecasts.

Financial Strength 

Magellan is in sound financial health. The firm has a conservative balance sheet with no debt, with its financial position also boosted by solid operating cash flows. As of June 30, 2021, Magellan had cash and equivalents of about AUD 212 million and financial investments with a net fair value of around AUD 453 million mainly invested in its own unlisted funds and listed shares. This should provide it with enough liquidity to cope with most market conditions. Its high dividend payout ratio of: (1) 90%-95% of the net profit after tax of its core funds management business before performance fees; and (2) annual performance fee dividend in the range of 90%-95% of net crystallised performance fees after tax reflects the capital-light nature of asset management.

Bulls Say

  • Magellan retains an intangible brand, supported by historically strong performance, which it has leveraged to hold on to client funds, attract new money and charge premium fees. 
  • Due to structural market trends and product expansion initiatives, the prospects for organic FUM growth is strong, notably from investors seeking to diversify exposure to international equities or gain a steady retirement income stream. 
  • Aside from domestic tailwinds from superannuation, Magellan’s distribution relationships in the much larger offshore markets of the U.K. and the U.S. should support growth.

Company Profile

Magellan Financial Group is an Australia-based niche funds manager. Established in 2006, the firm specialises in the management of equity and infrastructure funds for domestic retail and institutional investors. Magellan has been particularly successful in winning mandates from global institutional investors. Current FUM is split across global equities, infrastructure and Australian equities.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

Virgin Money Margins on the Rise, but the Loan Books a Little Lighter

Business Strategy and Outlook

Virgin Money UK consists of the CYBG business (demerged from National Australia Bank, or NAB), and the more recently acquired Virgin Money UK. In 2016, NAB demerged its U.K.-based operations in Clydesdale Bank and Yorkshire Bank, collectively known as CYBG. The CYBG merger with Virgin Money UK virtually doubled the size of the bank’s loan book and provided a foothold in the larger and faster growing London region. The bank’s loan book is split 80% mortgages, 12% business loans, and 8% personal (including cards) as at September 2021. 

Acquiring Virgin Money in 2018 was transformative for CYBG. A larger and more geographically diverse mortgage book lowers risk and presents cost saving opportunities, but also presents the opportunity to grow its business loan book under the Virgin Money banner. Aiming to maintain its share of the mortgage market, the bank wants to reduce its weighting to mortgages to 75% as it grows its business loan book.

Financial Strength

The capital structure and balance sheet are sound. Common equity Tier 1 capital was 15.2% as at Dec. 31, 2021, well above the 9.5% minimum capital benchmark. The bank has a longer-term dividend payout goal of up to 50%. The percentage of funding sourced by customer deposits was 83% as at Sept. 30, 2021, the elevated savings rate in 2021 helped the bank increase the weight of funds to cheaper business and personal current accounts materially. These current accounts and linked savings increased 19% in the fiscal 2021, making up 38% of funding as at Sept. 30, 2021 and up from 31% at end of fiscal 2020. Virgin Money UK received internal ratings-based, or IRB, accreditation from the U.K. regulator for its mortgage and SME/corporate loan portfolios mid-October 2018. Virgin Money UK is now authorised to use its own risk models in determining risk weighted assets, resulting in a reduction in risk weighted assets for the two portfolios and thereby improving its capacity to grow share.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Virgin Money UK is a well-capitalised and well-funded retail and small-business bank with long-established franchises in core regional markets. 
  • Management’s ability to successfully integrate the merger with Virgin Money is critical to our thesis. 
  • Legacy conduct issues have caused pain for shareholders despite balance sheet provisions and conduct indemnities provided by National Australia Bank. It have made no allowance for large penalties or customer remediation in our forecasts.

Company Profile 

Virgin Money UK was formed through the merger between CYBG PLC and Virgin Money. After being divested by National Australia Bank in 2016, CYBG went through a restructuring and recapitalisation process, with mortgages accounting for around 75% of its loan book. Following CYBG’s merger with Virgin Money, the loan book has been reshaped again, with mortgages now accounting for more than 81% of total loans, personal loans around 7%, and SME and business loans around 12%. The merger with Virgin Money does provide upside earnings potential, but operating conditions are tough, with business momentum slowing. An upturn in the earnings outlook is needed after several years of disappointment.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Fixed Income Fixed Income

Schroder Fixed Income Fund – Client Class: Above par on multiple counts

Fund Objective

To outperform the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+Yr Index after fees over the medium term.

Approach 

Schroders begins by formulating long-term (10-year) risk/reward forecasts using a building-block approach that includes current yield, long-cycle economic growth, and inflation. These figures are adjusted to shorter term forecasts (three years) based on a proprietary three-factor model that considers valuation, cycle, and liquidity characteristics to identify best- and worst-case risk-adjusted opportunities. Broad risk allocations between cash, bonds, and credit are consequently generated. The team then determines the appropriate trades and physical securities. Risk/reward forecasts dictate positions in duration and curve (domestic and other yield curves), cross-market trades (spread compression between assets in varying geographies), and credit selection (investment-grade, securitised, high yield, and emerging markets). Credit assessment focuses on market position, management quality, firm profitability, and capital structure. The strategy is mostly process-driven, and the long-term capital preservation mindset is a point of differentiation.

Portfolio 

A wide remit of securities can be held, including government, semigovernment securities, investment-grade credit, high-yield, emerging-markets bonds. Derivatives can be used to express credit, rate, and curve views. The team’s caution over valuations saw it hold more cash than most of its cohorts with a short duration bias through most of 2010-18, sizeable at times. Schroders has long held an underweighting in government and government-related securities in lieu of corporate credit, inflation-linked bonds, and cash. As spreads compressed, investment-grade credit fell steadily to 12% in April 2017 from 42% in August 2010. Schroders waded back in to capitalise on more-attractive valuations as global policy support followed in early 2020. It shortened interest-rate duration significantly in early 2021 as concerns over inflationary pressures bubbled to the surface, before softening this stance amid questions over its persistence. By the third quarter of the year, Schroders’ view that higher inflation was more structural saw it re-enter a more-entrenched short-duration stance. Holdings in non-Australian bonds has tended to be about 10%-15%. This vehicle can be used as a core exposure given it mostly holds high-grade bonds. Schroders managed about AUD 2.8 billion in this strategy at 30 June 2021

Performance 

The strategy has had its share of ups and downs over the years, with strong results during 2019-20 offsetting a fallow run that preceded it. The absolute return focus and cautious posture cost relative performance as yields and spreads broadly tightened during 2014-18, notably its short-duration position particularly in the US and preference for cash. An average cash weight of about 20% from 2009 to 2019 was a major drag, though this weighting declined noticeably after 2016. By contrast, the move to a long-duration position in early 2019 helped as yields declined and Schroders handled the volatile conditions in 2020 adeptly. Its long duration position in early 2020 helped it navigate the initial phase of the pandemic, supported by a reduction in credit risk. Its quick reallocation to credit as spreads widened helped sustain outperformance through the rest of the year. An indexlike result over the majority of 2021 saw the team navigate the choppy moves in yields particularly well over the first half of the year before being stung as shorter-maturity yields leapt exponentially higher after the RBA suddenly decided to exit yield-curve control in the third quarter. The strategy has done well in down markets because of the higher-quality portfolio and focus on downside protection. Its high-conviction approach can contribute to meaningful and lengthy deviations from its cohort.

Top Holdings

About the fund

The Fund is an actively managed, low volatility strategy that invests in a range of domestic and international fixed income assets with the objective of outperforming the Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0 Yr Index, whilst delivering stable absolute returns over time. The Fund adopts a Core-Plus investment approach whereby a core portfolio comprising Australian investment grade bonds is complemented by investments in a diverse range of global and domestic fixed income securities.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Dividend Stocks

Returning to Truist After Q4 Earnings; Increasing Our Fair Value Estimate to $66 From $63

Business Strategy and Outlook

Truist (the combination of BB&T and SunTrust), is set for its next step up in profitability, as merger-related costs are essentially cut in half in 2022 and then fall out completely in 2023. The combination has formed one of the better regionals in the U.S. from a competitive standpoint.Morningstar analysts like Truist’s insurance growth engine, and the bank has only been adding to its strength here with the acquisition of Regions Insurance Group in 2018, multiple smaller acquisitions in 2020, and Constellation Partners in 2021.Morningstar analyst also like the strength of the bank’s investment banking group, as well as its growing wealth business, and believe Truist will have room to increase non interest revenue over time. 

Morningstar analysts view the bank’s latest push into the Point of Sale consumer financing space with the acquisition of Service Finance in late 2021 as another positive. We expect the unit will drive multiple billions of dollars of loan originations for years to come, with solid yields on these loans, although expect competition to increase over time, as Truist is not the only bank making major moves in this space. 

Truist has made steady progress on its integration efforts (the acquisition closed in late 2019), with much of the remaining work set to be completed in 2022. The financials still remain a bit complex due to PAA and PPP related NII, one-time expenses, and additional bolt-on acquisitions taking place. Once the dust settles in 2023, we believe management’s goal of becoming a top-tier bank from the standpoint of efficiency and return on tangible equity is realistic.

After updating projections with the latest quarterly results, Morningstar analyst increased its fair value estimate to $66 per share from $63. This values Truist at roughly 2.6 times tangible book value as of December.

Financial Strength

Morningstar analysts think Truist is in good financial health and also do not have significant concerns about capital, and the bank had a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.6% as of the fourth quarter of 2021, roughly in line with management’s expectations.

Bulls Say 

  • A strong economy and higher rates are all positives for the banking sector and should propel revenue even higher. 
  • Truist’s now combined operations will allow the bank to reach new levels of operating efficiency and profitability, previously out of reach when BB&T and SunTrust were separate franchises. 
  • Truist keeps growing its insurance operations at an above market rate. Additional bolt-on acquisitions, higher interest rates, and the falling out of acquisition related expenses means Truist will see uniquely strong core revenue growth along with falling expenses.

Company Profile

Based in Charlotte, North Carolina, Truist is the combination of BB&T and SunTrust. Truist is a regional bank with a presence primarily in the Southeastern United States. In addition to commercial banking, retail banking, and investment banking operations, the company operates several nonbank segments, the primary one being its insurance brokerage business.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.