Tag: Street Talks

Categories
Technology Stocks

Sonic Healthcare increased its margins in both its laboratory and imaging divisions

Investment Thesis

  • Ageing Population Requires more diagnostic tests especially as medicine focuses on Preventives medicine
  • Market leading positions in Pathology(number one in Australia, Germany, Switzerland and United Kingdom number three in US). Australia is the Second leading player in the market in Imaging. 
  • Establishment of Global Channels to high barriers entry.
  • Organic growth and potential improvement from margin cost strategy on the acquisition of ongoing bolt.
  • Leveraged against a weakening dollar.
  • Globally Diversified.

Key Risks

  • Diagnostic expenses are being decreased as a result of disruptive technology.
  • Market share is being lost due to competitive threats.
  • Deregulation has resulted in the establishment of new pathology collection centres.
  • Regulative changes that are detrimental (fee cuts).
  • Growth that has been disappointing.
  • Unfavorable currency fluctuations (AUD, EUR, USD).

FY21 results highlights 

  • Revenue Growth of +28 to A$8.8 billion. In constant Currency, revenue of $9,129 million was up +33.7%, driven by Covid-19 testing revenue in each of SHL’s laboratory businesses. Base business revenue (exclude Covid testing) grew +6% versus FY20 and +4% versus FY19.
  • EBITDA growth of +81% to A$ 2.6 Billion (or +89% on constant Currency basis) driven by +97% EBITDA Growth of +89% in the laboratory division due to Covid-19 testing. 
  • Net profit growth of +149% to A$1.3 billion, reflecting growth in revenue and SHL’s strong operating leverage. 
  • Sonic Healthcare achieved margin accretion in both laboratory and imaging divisions.
  • SHL’s balance sheet is well placed with record low gearing level and liquidity of ~A$1.5bnto fund growth via acquisitions. 
  • Gearing (Net debt/[Net debt + equity) of 12.5%, interest cover (EBITA/Net interest expense) of 33.8x and debt cover (Net debt/EBITDA) of 0.4x all improved from 21.6%, 20.5x and 1.0x, respectively, at Dec-20 (and remains within covenant limit of <55%, >3.25x, and <3.5x respectively). 
  • As per its progressive dividend policy, sonic healthcare declared a final dividend of 55cps, up +8% and franked to 65%. Total dividends are up +7%.

Company Profile 

Sonic Healthcare (SHL) is a medical diagnostics company with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. The company provides a comprehensive range of pathology and diagnostic imaging services to medical practitioners, hospitals and their patients along with providing administrative services and facilities to medical practitioners. SHL has three main segments: (1) Pathology/clinical laboratory services based in Australia, NZ, UK, US, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Ireland. (2) Diagnostic imaging services in Australia; and (3) Other which includes medical centre operations (IPN), occupational health services (Sonic HealthPlus) and laboratory automation development (GLP Systems).

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Adbri’s stock price drops but building boom raises profits

Investment Thesis

  • Macro conditions remains uncertain in key regions.
  • Strong pipeline of infrastructure projects over the next 2 years is a positive but timing and execution is a risk. 
  • Solid balance sheet position provides some flexibility to the Company to pursue growth. 
  • Leading positions as a lime producer, concrete products producer and cement and clinker supplier.
  • Outlook for lime looks relatively positive with higher infrastructure projects and resource sector activity
  • Cost-out and vertical integration (cement) programs expected to deliver cost benefits that exceed cost headwinds of $10m in FY21.

Key Risks

We see the following key risks to our investment thesis:

  • Softer sales volume than expected.
  • Loss of market share to competitors or imports and pressure on pricing. 
  • Softer than expected pricing increases.
  • Higher than expected energy prices.
  • Execution risk in relation to Company’s cost-out and vertical integration strategies.
  • Deterioration of A$ relative to other currencies.
  • Unfavorable weather impacts. 

1H21 results summary

  • Revenue was up +7.4% over pcp to $752.3m with robust demand, particularly on the eastern seaboard, driving higher volumes across all products. Lime pricing declined in accordance with contractual arrangements, while average cement price increased marginally, and concrete and aggregate prices were stable overall. 
  • Underlying EBITDA increased +8.7% over pcp to $133.1m with margins improving +20bps to 17.7%, benefitting from disciplined implementation of cost efficiencies across the Group. 
  • Underlying NPAT of $55m was up +15.5% over pcp driven by improved demand for construction materials supported by increased residential housing activity and infrastructure spending. 
  • Operating cash flow of $76.8m declined -34% over pcp, largely due to the one-off benefit in the prior year of Covid-19 stimulus measures with the temporary deferral of GST and PAYG payments that boosted 1H20 cash flow by circa $30m (measures reversed in 2H20 following payment of the deferred liabilities and were not repeated in 1H21). 
  • Capex declined -8% over pcp to $67.6m and was split between stay-in-business capital of $51.8m and development capital of $15.8m. 

Company Description  

Adbri Ltd (ABC) is an Australia listed construction materials and liming producing company. ABC is Australia’s leading (1) lime producer in the minerals processing industry; (2) concrete products producer; and (3) cement and clinker importer. ABC is Australia’s number two cement and clinker supplier to the Australian construction industry and number four concrete and aggregates producer.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Technology Stocks

Nitro software operating expenses rise as their top line expands

20025825 - closeup image of businessman drawing 3d graphics

Investment Thesis

  • Total Addressable Market (TAM) for sizeable market opportunity is US$28bn (company estimates which is based on ground up model taking into account customer values). 
  • Created a solid foundation on which to build – the company has penetrated 68 percent of the Fortune 500 companies, and while the initial involvement with these companies may be small, it provides the opportunity to scale up with these customers (approx. 10 percent of the Fortunes 500 customers have 100 or more licenced users).
  • Structural tailwinds – businesses looking to digitise manual, paper-based processes are continuing to migrate online.
  • Looking to become a platform.
  • Subscription provides an appealing recurring revenue base.
  • The company’s competitive position continuously developing in R&D investment and enhance value proposition with customer.

Key Risks

  • Rising Competitive pressure especially when larger player like adobe inc and document sign.
  • Company trade on high valuation multiples like growth in subscriptions, new customers and Penetration of existing clients which disappoints the market growth.
  • Product Innovation stall and fails to resonate with customers.
  • Emergence of new competitors and technology.

Nitro software’s 1H CY21 result

  • Group revenue increased by +27 percent to $24.1 million, with subscription revenue increasing by +66 percent to $15.1 million as a result of new customer acquisition and growth among existing customers.  ARR (annual recurring revenue) of $33.8 million was up +56 percent Year on year.
  • Gross Profit was up 28 percent to US$22.1m, with Gross Profit margin of 92%.
  • R&D expenses of US$5.8m were up by 46% and represented 24% of revenue. Key Operating expenses saw significant increase as the company continuous to invest in the business to drive a top line growth.
  • Operating earnings (EBITDA excluding share-based and M&A expenses) were a loss of $3 million, compared to a gain of $0.2 million in the pcp.
  • At the end of the period, there was no debt and a cash balance of $38.6 million.

Company Profile 

Nitro Software Ltd (NTO), founded in 2005 & listed in 2019, is a global document productivity software company. NTO offers integrated PDF productivity, eSignature and business intelligence (BI) tools through a horizontal SaaS and desktop-based software suite. The Company helps customers move to 100% digital document workflows, eliminating paper and accelerating business processes.NTO serves customers around the world and counts 68% of the Fortune 500 companies among its customers. In total, NTO has over 12,000 business customers (who are defined as having at least 10 licensed users) and across 155 countries.

(Source: Banyantree)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

Entergy’s Service Area Significantly Affected by Hurricane Ida

narrow moat ratings after Category 4 Hurricane Ida impacted significant portions of Entergy’s service area, including the New Orleans area. On Aug. 29, Entergy disclosed that Hurricane Ida caused all eight transmission lines that provide power to New Orleans to fail. This subsequently caused a load imbalance causing all generation to cease operations. 

While it is too early to estimate any financial impact from Hurricane Ida, the storm has drawn comparisons to Hurricane Katrina, the last Category 4 hurricane to impact the area. The combination of damage from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita, which struck the region shortly after Katrina, led to $1.5 billion total restoration costs for the repair of Entergy’s electric and gas facilities. This excluded lost revenue due to customer outages and Entergy’s inability to recover fixed costs through base rates.

Near-term liquidity constraints following Katrina and Rita led Entergy’s subsidiary, Entergy New Orleans, to file voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The subsidiary exited bankruptcy in May 2007 and eventually recovered most of the restoration costs through insurance proceeds and regulatory approval of storm restoration cost securitization, which was authorized by state law.

Company’s Future outlook

Entergy’s last traded price was 111.69 USD, whereas its fair value estimate is 110.00 USD, which makes it an overvalued stock. Entergy New Orleans contributed $49 million of Entergy’s $1.1 billion consolidated net income in 2020.  It is estimated that every $250 million of disallowed restoration costs reduces fair value estimate $1 per share. Entergy New Orleans had roughly $1 billion in total rate base at year-end 2020, representing approximately 3.5% of Entergy’s $28 billion rate base. Hurricane Ida increases Entergy’s regulatory risk as regulators likely will scrutinize the company’s storm response and restoration costs. 

Company Profile

Entergy is an integrated utility with approximately 22 gig watts of regulated utility-owned power generation capacity. It has shrunk its merchant generation business and plans to retire its remaining operating merchant nuclear unit in Michigan in 2022. Its five regulated integrated utilities generate and distribute electricity to about 3 million customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Technology Stocks

Another Strong Quarter for Zoom with Steeper Q4 Deceleration in Guidance

However, third-quarter guidance was mixed but largely in line and implied fourth-quarter guidance shows a steeper deceleration in top line growth than anticipated as a result of increasing churn and lower customer’s additions in the online channel that focuses on smaller customers. 

Zoom has been guiding to deceleration as the year progresses, even as it has been beating expectations and raising full year expectations over the last three quarters. There is a long runway for growth as the company gains traction with Zoom Phone and evolves its main application to a communication platform. Along these lines, management will focus on expanding its platform to feature a wider array of revenue generating products as hyper growth normalizes.

Current remaining performance obligations, or cRPO, grew 58% year over year in the quarter, compared with 54% revenue growth. While this is generally a positive indicator for revenue over the next year, management was careful to point out that billings cycles are growing increasingly concentrated in the April quarter and that therefore both cRPO and deferred revenue are to decrease sequentially in the third quarter.

Company’s Future outlook

Zoom Vedio Communication’s last traded price was 347.50 USD, whereas its fair value estimate is 252.00 USD, which makes it a highly overvalued stock.  Revenue grew 54% year over year to $1.021 billion, which topped the high end of guidance of $990 million. Direct and channel business was strong, with enterprise customers doing larger deals but taking more time to evaluate the solution and being more strategic in their approach. Up sells of Zoom Phone and a pickup in Zoom Rooms helped drive larger deals. New customers accounted for 74% of revenue, which is unusually high for a software company of Zoom’s size. Zoom Phone momentum continued during the quarter, with the company reaching 2 million seats. Net dollar expansion remains strong at 130%,

Company Profile

Zoom Video Communications provides a communications platform that connects people through video, voice, chat, and content sharing. The company’s cloud-native platform enables face-to-face video and connects users across various devices and locations in a single meeting. Zoom, which was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in San Jose, California, serves companies of all sizes from all industries around the world.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF offers potential long-term capital growth with dividend income

Investment Objective

Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF seeks to track the return of the S&P/ASX 300 Index before taking into account fees, expenses and tax.

Investment Strategy

The fund provides low cost and efficient exposure to the broad Australian share market.  The fund offers diversification by being exposed to all market sectors including the AREITs. The fund seeks to generate capital growth over the long term while producing dividend income along the way attached with franking credits.  

Portfolio Objective

  • Competitive long-term returns while less exposed to volatility in the price of any one security.
  • Deliver long term returns at low cost. 
  • The fund seeks long term capital growth, tax effective income while being tolerant to share market volatility.  

Positives

  • Diversification.
  • Low cost exposure to a broad and diverse range of listed securities. 
  • Quarterly distributions. 

Negatives 

  • Share market volatility could cause the portfolio value to go up and down during the holding period.  
  • The index tracking capability of the fund may fail to meet the objectives of the fund.
  • The fees and costs of the fund may change.

Company Description 

The Vanguard Group has been in Australia since 1996 and currently has $140 billion of assets under management. The Group manages some 82 funds with head office in Melbourne, Australia. The Vanguard Group, globally, has been operating since 1975 with $1.6 trillion of asset under management. The global group manages 400 funds with 30 million investors worldwide.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

Vanguard focus on increasing dividends while also delivering some capital growth

Investment Objective 

Vanguard Australian Shares High Dividend Yield seeks to replicate the performance of the FTSE Australia high Dividend yield index before taking into account fees, expenses and taxes.

Investment Strategies

  • The Funds seeks low cost exposure to ASX Listed Companies that are expected to deliver higher Dividend as compared to other ASX Listed Companies.
  • Funds Achieves diversification by limiting the amount of securities holds of maximum 10% of portfolio.
  • Fund does not invest more than 40% of its assets in single industry. AREIT Investing does not excludes particular funds.  

Portfolio Objective 

  • Long term returns are competitive in nature.
  • Provides long term returns at low cost. 
  • The fund seeks long-term capital growth and tax-efficient income while being risk-averse in the stock market.

Positives 

  • Diversification 
  • Low Cost exposure to dividend paying ASX Listed Securities
  • Distributions are made on quarterly basis

Negatives 

  • Dividend-paying stocks underperform the market as a whole.
  • Share market volatility may cause the portfolio value to fluctuate.
  • The fund’s index tracking capability may fail to meet the fund’s objectives.
  • The fund’s fees and costs are subject to change.

Company Profile 

The Vanguard Group has been in Australia since 1996 and currently has $140billion of assets under management. The Group manages some 82 funds with head office in Melbourne, Australia. The Vanguard Group, globally, has been operating since 1975 with $1.6 trillion of asset under management. The global group manages 400 funds with 30 million investors worldwide.

ETF Performance…

Figure 1: Fund performance as at30June 2021

(%)FundBenchmark
1-month+1.39%+0.1.39%
3-months+6.03%+6.03%
6- months+16.33%+16.34%
1-year +34.89%+34.86%
3-year (p.a.)+10.46%+10.38%
Since Inception (p.a.)+9.50%+9.45%

Source: Vanguard. Inception date: 26 May2011.

ETF Positioning…

Figure 2: Top ten holdings

Source: Vanguard

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
ETFs ETFs

Vanguard MSCI ETF gives exposure to companies to deliver long term growth

Investment Objective

Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF seeks to track the return of the MSCI World ex-Australia (with net dividends reinvested), in Australian dollars Index, before taking into account fees, expenses and tax.

Investment Strategy

The fund provides exposure to many of the world’s largest companies in major developed markets and countries. The fund seeks to deliver this exposure efficiently by keeping the costs low. There fund offers diversification through number of securities, sectors, and markets and gives exposure to companies with the potential to deliver long term capital growth. The fund offers investors exposure to economies other than just Australia’s. The fund is also exposed to various currencies and their fluctuating prices, though the fund will not hedge foreign currency volatility against Australian dollar.  

Portfolio Objective

  • Provide diversified exposure to internationally diversified global shares.
  • Capital growth over the long term.
  • Currency exposures and diversification away from Australia.

Positives

  • Diversification by sectors, securities, regions, and currencies.
  • Low cost exposure to globally diversified portfolio.
  • Quarterly distributions. 

Negatives 

  • Share market and currency volatility could cause the portfolio value to go up and down during the holding period.  
  • The index tracking capability of the fund may fail to meet the objectives of the fund.
  • The fees and costs of the fund may change.

About the Company

The Vanguard Group has been in Australia since 1996 and currently has $140billion of assets under management.  The Group manages some 82 funds with head office in Melbourne, Australia. The Vanguard Group, globally, has been operating since 1975 with $1.6 trillion of asset under management. The global group manages 400 funds with 30 million investors worldwide.

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Commodities Trading Ideas & Charts

South32 Profits Rebound due to Stronger Commodity Prices in FY21

with adjusted net profit after tax up about 150% to USD 489 million. Adjusted EBIT nearly doubled to USD 844 million from USD 446 million, thanks to higher commodity prices, and was in line with the expectations. The company did a creditable job at offsetting inflationary pressures, primarily through cost reductions and efficiencies. 

Dividends surprised on the upside, with South32 declaring a USD 3.5 cent final and USD 2.0 cent special, bringing the full year payout to USD 6.9 cents fully franked, ahead of our USD 6.0 cent forecast. Given South32 possessed about USD 400 million net cash at the end of June, the cash returned to shareholders seems to be worthy use of funds.. In addition, the outlook for commodity prices is probably looking better for the company in fiscal 2022.

Metallurgical coal has been one of the strongest performers of late, the price doubling in less than six months. At the divisional level, Cannington had a much better year, reflecting strong production and higher prices, with EBIT more than tripling to USD 350 million.

Company’s Future Outlook

South32 has increased the size of its ongoing on market share buyback by USD 120 million, with about USD 250 million remaining to be returned.  Along with share repurchases, South32 continues to make incremental portfolio improvements. A more focused and streamlined portfolio should reduce South32’s expenditure requirements and allow capital to be directed to higher returning opportunities. Like many diversified mining peers, South32 is positioning itself for a carbon constrained world and expects the majority of its commodities to do better under that constraint, notably aluminium for light-weighting and nickel for batteries.  The recent rebound in the coking coal price may provide an opportunity, which could be a good option.

Company Profile

South32 was born of the demerger of noncore assets from BHP in 2015. South32 comprises BHP’s former aluminium and manganese businesses and the South African energy coal and New South Wales metallurgical coal businesses. It also owns the Cannington silver/lead/zinc mine in northwest Queensland and the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia. Cannington silver mine and manganese operations deliver high returns but have relatively short reserve life. The company acquired Arizona Mining, which brings with it the high-grade and likely low-cost Hermosa deposit in the U.S.

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.

Categories
Shares Small Cap

SkyCity’s Business to Sit on the Sidelines Amid Travel Restrictions

buoyed by the recovery from current coronavirus-induced lows and solid performance from its core assets in Auckland and Adelaide. SkyCity’s Auckland and Adelaide properties underpin the firm’s narrow economic moat. SkyCity is the monopoly operator in both jurisdictions, with long-dated licences (exclusive licence for Auckland expires in 2048, and Adelaide licence expires in 2085 with exclusivity guaranteed until 2035). The quality of these assets, particularly SkyCity Auckland, has helped build the firm’s VIP gaming business.

SkyCity’s exposure to the volatile VIP gaming market is smaller than that of Australian rivals Crown Resorts and Star Entertainment. VIP revenue typically represents over 20% of Crown’s and Star’s sales, compared with SkyCity’s typical 10%-15%. While high rollers have no alternatives when in Auckland or Adelaide, SkyCity effectively competes as a destination casino on a global scale against locations such as The Star in Sydney and Crown Melbourne. This includes a NZD 750 million upgrade to SkyCity Auckland to be completed by the end of calendar 2024 and a AUD 330 million expansion for SkyCity Adelaide, a transformational project completed in fiscal 2021.

Financial Strength 

Despite near-term earnings weakness, SkyCity’s balance sheet remains robust, bolstered by a NZD 230 million capital raise completed at the end of fiscal 2020 and extensions to new and existing debt facilities. As expected, SkyCity declared a final dividend in the second half of fiscal 2021, following the June 30, 2021 covenant testing date. We expect SkyCity’s balance sheet to continue to improve over coming years as earnings recover, with net debt/EBITDA dropping below 1.0 in fiscal 2024 as expansionary projects roll off and earnings recover. 

Our fair value for SkyCity to NZD 3.80, from NZD 3.50, following the release of fiscal 2021 results. The raise on our fair value estimate is principally due to a more positive outlook on capital expenditure as SkyCity’s major expansion projects roll off and insurance payments are set to cover the majority of growth expenditure earmarked for the next three years. Despite New Zealand recently shifting back into stage 4 lockdown, SkyCity’s longdated and exclusive licences in Auckland and Adelaide create a regulatory barrier to entry, underpinning the firm’s narrow moat, and position the business well to participate in the recovery as restrictions ease. 

The payout ratio is well-supported by SkyCity’s balance sheet. The completion of the NZD 330 million Adelaide expansion in fiscal 2021 takes some pressure off cash flows, and of the further NZD 500 million in capital expenditure flagged for the NZICC project, around NZD 380 million will be funded by insurance payments to be received following the NZICC fire. The NZD 750 million NZICC/Horizon Hotel project (which helped secure licensed exclusivity at the core Auckland casino) has been delayed by a fire, with completion now expected in late calendar 2024.

Bulls Say’s 

  • Long-dated exclusive licences to operate the only casino in Auckland and Adelaide allow SkyCity to enjoy economic returns in a regulated environment.
  • We expect transformative capital expenditure at SkyCity’s Auckland and Adelaide casinos will lead to a sizable step-up in earnings.
  • SkyCity is well positioned to benefit from the emerging middle and upper class in China.

Company Profile 

SkyCity Entertainment operates a number of casino-hotel complexes across Australia and New Zealand. The flagship property is SkyCity Auckland, the holder and operator of an exclusive casino licence (expiring in 2048) in New Zealand’s most populous city. The company also owns smaller casinos in Hamilton and Queenstown. In Australia, the company operates SkyCity Adelaide (exclusive licence expiring in 2035).

(Source: Morningstar)

General Advice Warning

Any advice/ information provided is general in nature only and does not take into account the personal financial situation, objectives or needs of any particular person.